Zack Brown
P
Louisville Bats
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 199 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%11.8%
IP27
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 12 | 6 | 38 | 174 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 15.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 22 | 17 | 110 | 451 | 107 | 36 | 8 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 2.0% | 3.11 | 3.88 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 23 | 22 | 128 | 513 | 119 | 36 | 8 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 2.40 | 3.46 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | 25 | 23 | 117 | 540 | 98 | 63 | 16 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.79 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 19 | 1 | 27 | 118 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 5.5% | 3.67 | 6.55 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 49 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.93 | 3.69 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 19 | 4 | 35 | 160 | 14 | 22 | 4 | 7.7% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 8.05 | 5.73 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | SD | 27 | — | 27 | 116 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 169 | 73 | 505 | 2168 | 369 | 216 | 55 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.33 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 29 | 200 | 859 | 146 | 86 | 22 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 26 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 95 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 85 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 84 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 79 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .308 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.32 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 77 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.