Davis Daniel — OGILVIE

Davis Daniel P Louisville Bats

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.78

FIP5.11

K%15.0%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

FB (51%)

SL-1.5 (27%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	115	480	154	33	15	96%	5.0	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	3.7%	3.92	3.93	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	115	480	154	33	15	96%	5.0	32.1%	6.9%	25.2%	3.1%	3.92	2.98	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	21	21	102	428	83	32	14	100%	4.9	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	3.7%	4.49	4.67	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	21	21	102	428	83	32	14	100%	4.9	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.3%	4.49	4.19	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	7	42	173	51	21	1	70%	4.2	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	0.7%	2.16	3.04	+1.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	7	42	173	51	21	1	70%	4.2	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	0.7%	2.16	3.04	+1.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	7	42	173	51	21	1	70%	4.2	29.5%	12.1%	17.3%	0.6%	2.16	2.48	+1.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	657	150	39	20	96%	5.3	19.7%	5.4%	14.2%	3.6%	5.58	4.09	+1.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	657	150	39	20	96%	5.3	19.7%	5.4%	14.2%	3.6%	5.58	4.09	+1.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	148	657	150	39	20	96%	5.3	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	3.0%	5.58	3.62	+2.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	111	491	90	51	16	68%	4.0	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	3.9%	5.58	5.07	-0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	111	491	90	51	16	68%	4.0	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	3.9%	5.58	5.07	-0.2
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	19	111	491	90	51	16	68%	4.0	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	3.3%	5.58	4.73	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	8	53	232	46	22	7	67%	4.4	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	3.0%	5.13	4.33	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	18	94	407	93	38	12	95%	4.9	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	3.2%	4.71	4.34	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	18	94	407	93	38	12	95%	4.9	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	3.2%	4.71	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CIN	19	18	94	407	93	38	12	95%	4.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.5%	2.9%	4.71	3.97	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CIN	2	2	14	58	9	4	2	100%	6.8	15.0%	7.7%	7.3%	3.5%	4.78	5.11	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.0%	7.7%	7.3%	3.5%	4.78	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	107	465	102	42	14	—	—	21.9%	9.1%	12.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.44	+0.6
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	15.0%	7.7%	7.3%	3.5%	4.78	4.72	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	27	27	164	695	104	56	25	100%	6.1	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	3.6%	5.01	5.23	-0.6
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	153	648	96	54	25	100%	5.9	14.8%	8.3%	6.4%	3.8%	5.20	5.38	-0.8
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	60	253	38	20	9	100%	6.0	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	3.6%	5.01	5.23	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	85	359	53	30	14	100%	6.1	14.8%	8.3%	6.4%	3.8%	5.20	5.38	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	32	199	850	138	73	30	89%	5.5	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	3.5%	5.12	4.76	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	854	139	73	30	89%	5.5	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	3.5%	5.12	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		129	114	612	2636	516	204	90	88%	4.7	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.31	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	861	169	67	30	88%	4.7	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.31	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Daniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	15.0%	7.7%	3.5%	—	5.30	14.9%	6.7%	318	+0.19	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	80
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	75
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	74
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	71
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	71
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	69
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	69
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	69
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	67
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	67
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	66
Randall Delgado R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP	4.82	17.3%	7.5%	4.1%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	290	66
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	66
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	65
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	65
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	65
Alejandro Martinez R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP-	4.24	9.2%	5.3%	2.3%	.291	5.97	10.5%	1.3%	32	+1.73	4.24	166	65
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	64
Sean O'Sullivan R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP-	5.76	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	290	63
Donn Roach R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	29	SP	5.06	12.2%	7.1%	3.8%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	455	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	164	14.9%	8.0%	1.41	4.99
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58