Davis Daniel

P Louisville Bats

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	28	27	148	5.58	3.62	22.8%	5.9%	3.2	K 20.2% · BB 5.4% · FIP 4.04
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	19	111	5.58	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	0.9	K 15.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.02
2026	29	AAACIN	19	18	94	4.71	4.00	22.9%	9.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	30	MLBCIN	1	1	7	4.72	5.02	16.0%	8.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBCIN	3	3	20	4.97	5.18	16.0%	8.7%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBCIN	4	4	25	5.19	5.37	15.8%	9.2%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45FB velo35

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA4.72

FIP5.02

K%16.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	115	480	154	33	15	96%	5.0	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	3.7%	3.92	3.93	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	115	480	154	33	15	96%	5.0	32.1%	6.9%	25.2%	3.1%	3.92	2.98	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	21	21	102	428	83	32	14	100%	4.9	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	3.7%	4.49	4.67	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	21	21	102	428	83	32	14	100%	4.9	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.3%	4.49	4.19	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	7	42	173	51	21	1	70%	4.2	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	0.7%	2.16	3.04	+1.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	7	42	173	51	21	1	70%	4.2	29.5%	12.1%	17.3%	0.6%	2.16	2.48	+1.5
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	657	150	39	20	96%	5.3	20.2%	5.4%	14.8%	3.6%	5.58	4.04	+2.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	657	150	39	20	96%	5.3	20.2%	5.4%	14.8%	3.6%	5.58	4.04	+2.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	148	657	150	39	20	96%	5.3	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	3.0%	5.58	3.62	+3.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	111	491	90	51	16	68%	4.0	15.7%	8.9%	6.8%	3.9%	5.58	5.02	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	111	491	90	51	16	68%	4.0	15.7%	8.9%	6.8%	3.9%	5.58	5.02	+0.5
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	19	111	491	90	51	16	68%	4.0	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	3.3%	5.58	4.73	+0.9
2026	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	18	94	407	93	38	12	95%	4.9	19.7%	8.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.29	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	18	94	407	93	38	12	95%	4.9	19.7%	8.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.29	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	19	18	94	407	93	38	12	95%	4.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.5%	2.9%	4.71	4.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	8	53	232	46	22	7	67%	4.4	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	3.0%	5.13	4.33	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CIN	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	16.0%	8.3%	7.7%	3.4%	4.72	5.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	56	235	38	20	8	100%	6.2	16.0%	8.7%	7.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.18	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	194	31	18	7	100%	5.7	15.8%	9.2%	6.6%	3.8%	5.19	5.37	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	20	84	14	7	3	100%	6.7	16.0%	8.7%	7.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.18	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	25	106	17	10	4	100%	6.2	15.8%	9.2%	6.6%	3.8%	5.19	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	16	98	425	77	39	14	80%	4.9	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	3.3%	5.11	4.57	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	32	200	864	156	79	28	80%	5.0	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	3.3%	5.11	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		129	114	612	2636	526	204	90	88%	4.7	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	3.4%	4.72	4.28	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	861	172	67	30	88%	4.7	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	3.4%	4.72	4.28	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 94 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.29 (+0.31)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.85%	—	×0.860	19.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.34%	—	×0.900	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 101 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.02 (+0.36)K% 18.2% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.20%	—	×0.860	15.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.89%	—	×0.900	8.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷0.961	×1.100	3.86%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 118 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.08 (+0.58)K% 23.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.860	20.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.31%	—	×0.900	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.56%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 20 IPFIP 0.94 → 1.85 (+0.91)K% 35.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.740	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.180	7.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.897	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 0.94 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 4 IPFIP 5.31 → 5.17 (−0.14)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	33.33%	—	×0.900	30.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.003	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.31 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Angels · 5 IPFIP -0.70 → 0.52 (+1.22)K% 45.0% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.00%	—	×0.680	30.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.910	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP -0.70 → 0.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 102 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.67 (+0.47)K% 19.4% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.39%	—	×0.880	17.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×1.050	7.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷0.978	×1.100	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 47 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.43 (+0.56)K% 34.4% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.810	27.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.100	4.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.249	×1.200	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Daniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	16.0%	8.3%	3.4%	—	5.27	15.9%	7.0%	102	+0.25	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	83
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	81
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	79
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	79
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	77
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	76
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	75
Jeremy Kehrt R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	30	SP	4.17	12.7%	7.4%	2.2%	.333	4.71	8.5%	-4.6%	21	+0.54	3.37	262	74
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	74
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	73
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	72
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	71
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	70
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	70
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	70
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	70
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	69
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	16.9%	8.9%	1.32	4.98
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*