Davis Daniel
P
Louisville Bats
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA4.88
FIP5.26
K%15.7%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%6.9%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (51%)
SL-1.5 (27%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 115 | 480 | 154 | 33 | 15 | 96% | 5.0 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 18.1% | 3.9% | 3.92 | 4.02 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 115 | 480 | 154 | 33 | 15 | 96% | 5.0 | 32.1% | 6.9% | 25.2% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 2.98 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 21 | 21 | 102 | 428 | 83 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 4.72 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 21 | 21 | 102 | 428 | 83 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 7 | 42 | 173 | 51 | 21 | 1 | 70% | 4.2 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 0.8% | 2.16 | 3.06 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 7 | 42 | 173 | 51 | 21 | 1 | 70% | 4.2 | 29.5% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 0.6% | 2.16 | 2.48 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 148 | 657 | 150 | 39 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 20.6% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 5.58 | 4.36 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 148 | 657 | 150 | 39 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 22.8% | 5.9% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 5.58 | 3.62 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 19 | 111 | 491 | 90 | 51 | 16 | 68% | 4.0 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.58 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 19 | 111 | 491 | 90 | 51 | 16 | 68% | 4.0 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 5.58 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 17 | 16 | 84 | 362 | 80 | 32 | 12 | 94% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.63 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 45 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 153 | 650 | 125 | 57 | 22 | — | — | 19.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 7 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 15.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 27 | 164 | 695 | 108 | 62 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 153 | 648 | 99 | 60 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 39 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.37 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 55 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 33 | 205 | 873 | 145 | 80 | 32 | 89% | 5.5 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 33 | 200 | 854 | 142 | 78 | 31 | 89% | 5.5 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 112 | 603 | 2591 | 520 | 215 | 96 | 88% | 4.7 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.48 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 860 | 173 | 71 | 32 | 88% | 4.7 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Davis Daniel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 15.7% | 8.8% | 3.6% | — | 5.44 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 318 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 80 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 72 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 71 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 70 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 70 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 69 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 68 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 68 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 68 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 67 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 67 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 66 |
| Drake Fellows R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.81 | 13.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 226 | 66 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 65 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.96 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | .317 | 5.36 | 18.8% | 1.6% | 57 | +0.40 | 4.11 | 563 | 65 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 64 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 64 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.02 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.16 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.14 | 4.34 | 300 | 64 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.47 | 13.5% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .282 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 537 | -0.56 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 64 |
| Walker Powell R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.63 | 12.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 242 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 164 | 15.5% | 9.0% | 1.46 | 5.10 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |