Davis Daniel
P
Louisville Bats
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.96
FIP4.87
xFIP5.89
SIERA5.55
K%19.1%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%10.4%
IP105
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†3030
FB (51%)
SL-1.5 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 23 | 22 | 115 | 480 | 154 | 33 | 15 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 3.92 | 3.90 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 21 | 21 | 102 | 428 | 83 | 32 | 14 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 10 | 7 | 42 | 173 | 51 | 21 | 1 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 0.7% | 2.16 | 3.02 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 28 | 27 | 148 | 657 | 150 | 39 | 20 | 20.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 5.58 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 28 | 19 | 111 | 491 | 90 | 51 | 16 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 5.58 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 4 | 4 | 19 | 79 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 4.66 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 70 | 39 | 16 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 125 | 523 | 90 | 46 | 20 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 68 | 38 | 15 | 15.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 65 | 37 | 15 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 62 | 36 | 14 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.29 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 57 | 35 | 14 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 51 | 34 | 14 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 46 | 32 | 13 | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 5.58 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 47 | 29 | 13 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 5.58 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 100 | 538 | 2308 | 467 | 189 | 82 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.37 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 859 | 174 | 70 | 31 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Davis Daniel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | — | 5.23 | 15.7% | 6.8% | 295 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 71 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 70 |
| Sam LeCure R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 69 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 69 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 66 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.34 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | .267 | 4.58 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | +0.24 | 3.17 | 300 | 66 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 65 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 389 | 65 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | .258 | 5.04 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.44 | 4.13 | 300 | 65 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.94 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 239 | 65 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 65 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.00 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 5.36 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 102 | +0.36 | 4.13 | 265 | 63 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 63 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2025 · 6.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 6.02 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 223 | 63 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 63 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 63 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 62 |
| Donovan Hand R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.54 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.23 | 4.31 | 237 | 62 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 62 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.14 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.27 | 4.14 | 275 | 61 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.