Kumar Rocker

P Texas Rangers

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX4 levels	13	12	48	2.42	1.73	35.6%	5.7%	2.3	K 29.8% · BB 7.4% · FIP 1.93
2025	25	MIX3 levels	19	19	83	5.18	4.29	20.4%	7.2%	1.1	K 19.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.34
2026	26	MLBTEX	30	27	148	4.38	4.21	21.4%	9.3%	2.1
2027PROJ	27	MLBTEX	17	17	101	4.57	4.47	21.9%	9.1%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBTEX	13	13	80	4.69	4.69	21.7%	9.3%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBTEX	11	11	66	4.80	4.86	21.1%	9.5%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.797First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$1M2030Arb-2$1M2031Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo50

K%45

xwOBA vs39

Form4.22 ERA (proj 4.57) · K 22.8% (proj 21.9%) · BB 10.9% (proj 9.1%) · last 60d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsJames McDonald (age 27) · Jeff Niemann (age 27) · Claudio Vargas (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.57

FIP4.47

K%21.9%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.797 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$15M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	6	6	28	111	42	7	2	100%	4.7	29.1%	7.3%	21.9%	2.4%	3.86	2.86	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	6	6	28	111	42	7	2	100%	4.7	37.8%	6.3%	31.5%	1.8%	3.86	1.78	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	12	48	194	69	11	3	92%	3.7	29.8%	7.4%	22.4%	0.7%	2.42	1.93	+2.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	12	48	194	69	11	3	92%	3.7	29.8%	7.4%	22.4%	0.7%	2.42	1.93	+2.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	12	48	194	69	11	3	92%	3.7	35.6%	5.7%	29.9%	1.5%	2.42	1.73	+2.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	83	362	74	26	13	100%	4.4	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	3.6%	5.18	4.34	+1.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	83	362	74	26	13	100%	4.4	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	3.6%	5.18	4.34	+1.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	83	362	74	26	13	100%	4.4	20.4%	7.2%	13.3%	3.6%	5.18	4.29	+1.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	30	27	148	645	138	60	20	90%	4.9	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.05	+2.4
2026	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	30	27	148	645	138	60	20	90%	4.9	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.05	+2.4
2026	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	30	27	148	645	138	60	20	90%	4.9	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.38	4.21	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	44	224	987	208	89	32	94%	4.8	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.29	+2.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	17	17	101	426	93	39	13	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.1%	12.7%	3.1%	4.57	4.47	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	84	357	78	33	11	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.5%	3.2%	4.56	4.56	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	69	292	62	28	10	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.72	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	56	236	48	23	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.5%	4.82	4.93	+0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	43	181	36	18	7	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	3.7%	5.02	5.16	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	80	338	73	31	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.69	4.69	+0.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	66	279	59	26	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.86	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	53	224	46	22	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.8%	4.96	5.07	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	41	173	34	18	7	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	4.0%	5.17	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	84	464	1999	420	186	69	97%	5.3	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.40	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	862	181	80	30	97%	5.3	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		68	64	308	1312	299	109	36	94%	4.5	22.8%	8.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.24	3.72	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	853	194	71	23	94%	4.5	22.8%	8.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.24	3.72	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 16 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.98 (+0.56)K% 23.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.860	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×0.900	4.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷0.913	×1.100	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 20 IPFIP 0.19 → 0.89 (+0.71)K% 40.8% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.85%	—	×0.810	33.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.23%	—	×1.100	4.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.080	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 0.19 → 0.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 10 IPFIP 0.69 → 1.55 (+0.86)K% 51.4% → 44.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	51.43%	—	×0.860	44.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×0.900	2.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.928	×1.100	3.39%

Result: FIP 0.69 → 1.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rangers · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.43 (+1.33)K% 24.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.680	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.250	3.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.040	×1.400	4.08%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 28 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.86 (+1.17)K% 37.8% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.770	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.31%	—	×1.150	7.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷0.948	×1.250	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kumar Rocker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	21.9%	9.1%	3.1%	—	4.71	21.2%	11.7%	210	+0.24	—	—	—
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	77
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	75
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	74
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	74
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	73
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	71
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	70
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	69
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	69
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	68
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	68
Victor Santos R 2004 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	16.8%	7.6%	2.6%	.303	4.80	15.1%	6.9%	320	+0.71	4.09	602	68
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2010 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP	4.31	16.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.275	4.60	16.6%	9.3%	148	+0.29	3.30	617	68
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	67
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	67
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.40	13.9%	5.5%	286	+2.10	3.27	965	67
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	879	67
Hector Noesí R 2014 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	16.8%	7.5%	3.8%	.288	4.37	17.6%	9.5%	98	-0.32	3.73	613	67
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	21.2%	9.3%	1.27	4.70
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73