Kumar Rocker — OGILVIE

Kumar Rocker P Texas Rangers

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 97

ERA4.33

FIP4.15

K%21.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5626.2%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

SL+1.0 (38%)

CH (4%)

SI (29%)

FB (43%)

CT-1.1 (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.797 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	6	6	28	111	42	7	2	100%	4.7	29.1%	7.3%	21.9%	2.4%	3.86	2.86	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	6	6	28	111	42	7	2	100%	4.7	29.1%	7.3%	21.9%	2.4%	3.86	2.86	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	6	6	28	111	42	7	2	100%	4.7	37.8%	6.3%	31.5%	1.8%	3.86	1.78	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	12	48	194	69	11	3	92%	3.7	29.8%	7.4%	22.4%	0.7%	2.42	1.93	+1.8
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	12	48	194	69	11	3	92%	3.7	29.8%	7.4%	22.4%	0.7%	2.42	1.93	+1.8
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	12	48	194	69	11	3	92%	3.7	35.6%	5.7%	29.9%	1.5%	2.42	1.73	+2.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	83	362	74	26	13	100%	4.4	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.6%	5.18	4.35	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	83	362	74	26	13	100%	4.4	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.6%	5.18	4.35	+0.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	83	362	74	26	13	100%	4.4	20.4%	7.2%	13.3%	3.6%	5.18	4.29	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	42	215	951	202	86	32	93%	4.8	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	3.4%	4.86	4.36	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	28	25	139	609	132	57	20	89%	5.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.54	4.13	+1.3
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	28	25	139	609	132	57	20	89%	5.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.54	4.13	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	TEX	28	25	139	609	132	57	20	89%	5.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.54	4.26	+1.0
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TEX	28	25	139	609	132	57	20	89%	5.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.54	4.26	+1.0
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TEX	2	2	13	54	12	5	2	100%	6.4	21.7%	8.8%	12.8%	3.2%	4.33	4.15	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	13	55	12	5	2	100%	6.5	21.7%	8.8%	12.8%	3.4%	4.46	4.28	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	151	663	144	62	22	—	—	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.3%	4.53	4.13	+1.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	151	639	144	62	22	—	—	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.30	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	138	582	126	52	19	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.3%	4.66	4.60	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	138	582	125	53	20	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.5%	3.4%	4.68	4.69	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	132	556	116	52	20	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.6%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	124	522	106	50	20	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.8%	4.94	5.05	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	131	553	120	49	20	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.6%	4.80	4.74	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	131	553	119	50	20	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.5%	3.7%	4.82	4.83	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	125	528	110	49	20	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.8%	4.93	5.00	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	118	498	101	48	20	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	4.1%	5.10	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	128	732	3134	663	287	114	98%	5.6	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	3.6%	4.88	4.47	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	857	181	78	31	98%	5.6	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	3.6%	4.88	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		66	62	298	1276	292	106	36	94%	4.5	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.31	3.75	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	855	196	71	24	94%	4.5	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.31	3.75	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kumar Rocker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	21.6%	7.9%	3.2%	—	4.71	21.4%	12.3%	407	+0.27	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	80
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	76
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	76
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	76
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	75
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	74
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	74
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	74
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	74
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	74
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	73
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	73
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	73
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	73
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	120	21.2%	9.1%	1.35	4.74
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10