Paul Skenes — OGILVIE

Paul Skenes P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 260 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 4.9 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 175 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.12

FIP3.21

K%29.8%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%23.3%

ROS IP175

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p8228.1%

xwOBA vs

p820.281

FB+4.2 (52%)

SL+1.1 (21%)

SI (12%)

CH-1.2 (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.6	$37M	+$36M
2028	Arb-1	$10M	+3.7	$36M	+$26M
2029	Arb-2	$17M	+3.5	$30M	+$16M
2030	Arb-3	$25M	+3.3	$25M	+$7M
Totals		$53M		$128M	+$86M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.99	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	33.7%	6.3%	27.4%	1.9%	1.80	2.12	+5.8
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	33.7%	6.3%	27.4%	1.9%	1.80	2.12	+5.8
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	34.7%	6.5%	28.3%	1.8%	1.80	2.06	+6.0
2025	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.6%	1.97	2.23	+6.6
2025	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.6%	1.97	2.23	+6.6
2025	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.5%	1.97	2.23	+6.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	174	712	200	49	20	100%	5.4	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	3.0%	3.82	3.27	+3.5
2026	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	174	712	200	49	20	100%	5.4	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	3.0%	3.82	3.27	+3.5
2026	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	174	712	200	49	20	100%	5.4	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	2.8%	3.82	3.14	+3.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			87	87	495	1959	586	123	41	100%	5.7	29.9%	6.3%	23.6%	2.1%	2.62	2.55	+14.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	30	30	175	739	221	48	19	100%	5.8	29.8%	6.5%	23.3%	2.6%	3.12	3.21	+3.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	175	739	221	48	19	100%	6.0	29.9%	6.5%	23.4%	2.6%	3.17	3.21	+3.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	172	728	218	48	19	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.6%	23.4%	2.7%	3.21	3.24	+3.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	172	728	217	49	20	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	2.8%	3.28	3.33	+3.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	165	695	203	48	20	100%	6.1	29.2%	7.0%	22.3%	2.9%	3.41	3.49	+2.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	155	653	186	47	20	100%	5.9	28.5%	7.3%	21.3%	3.1%	3.58	3.70	+2.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	144	609	169	46	20	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	3.3%	3.79	3.93	+1.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	134	564	152	45	20	100%	6.1	27.0%	8.0%	19.0%	3.6%	4.03	4.18	+1.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	122	517	135	44	20	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.5%	17.7%	3.9%	4.29	4.46	+0.6
2036	34	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	112	471	119	42	20	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.0%	16.3%	4.2%	4.58	4.77	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	175	739	221	48	18	100%	6.0	29.9%	6.5%	23.4%	2.4%	3.06	3.10	+3.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	172	726	217	48	18	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.6%	23.4%	2.5%	3.10	3.13	+3.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	172	726	217	49	19	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	2.6%	3.17	3.22	+3.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	165	697	204	48	19	100%	5.9	29.2%	7.0%	22.3%	2.7%	3.29	3.37	+2.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	155	654	187	48	19	100%	6.0	28.5%	7.3%	21.3%	2.9%	3.45	3.57	+2.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	144	608	169	46	19	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	3.1%	3.65	3.79	+1.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	134	566	153	45	19	100%	6.1	27.0%	8.0%	19.0%	3.3%	3.88	4.03	+1.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	122	515	135	44	18	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.5%	17.7%	3.6%	4.13	4.30	+0.6
2036	34	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	119	42	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.0%	16.3%	3.8%	4.41	4.60	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		312	312	1846	7663	2207	541	207	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.1%	21.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.04	+43.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	830	239	59	22	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.1%	21.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.04	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		99	99	529	2092	635	132	46	100%	5.3	30.3%	6.3%	24.0%	2.2%	2.57	2.53	+33.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	791	240	50	17	100%	5.3	30.3%	6.3%	24.0%	2.2%	2.57	2.53	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Skenes (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.21	29.8%	6.5%	2.6%	—	3.26	29.9%	23.3%	520	+0.05	—	—	—
Carlos Martinez R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP	3.83	25.3%	7.9%	3.4%	.278	3.29	22.9%	13.1%	187	-0.54	2.53	967	64
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	63
José Berríos R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.2%	6.1%	3.1%	.295	3.72	23.4%	17.0%	427	+0.12	3.06	1,889	60
Lucas Giolito R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	32.3%	7.9%	3.4%	.270	3.64	27.9%	19.8%	413	+0.43	2.84	1,542	60
Noah Syndergaard R 2018 · 2.56 FIP	25	SP	2.56	24.1%	5.7%	1.4%	.314	3.37	24.5%	18.7%	198	+0.81	0.99	984	59
Javier Vazquez R 2001 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.2%	4.5%	2.7%	.276	3.81	20.7%	15.3%	659	+0.63	2.67	2,840	59
Josh Beckett R 2005 · 3.20 FIP	25	SP	3.20	22.8%	7.7%	1.9%	.283	3.63	21.7%	15.7%	580	+0.43	2.86	2,051	59
José Fernández R 2016 · 2.06 FIP	24	SP	2.06	34.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.06	491	59
Stephen Strasburg R 2013 · 3.05 FIP	25	SP	3.05	26.1%	7.5%	2.2%	.256	2.76	29.2%	23.7%	490	-0.29	1.08	1,460	58
Brett Myers R 2006 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	22.7%	7.2%	3.5%	.297	4.46	21.0%	13.4%	329	+0.45	3.52	1,710	58
Jake Peavy R 2006 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	25.4%	6.0%	2.7%	.294	2.95	25.6%	17.9%	499	-0.26	2.53	2,409	56
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	56
Aaron Nola R 2018 · 2.71 FIP	25	SP	2.71	27.0%	6.6%	1.9%	.247	3.24	29.0%	21.9%	454	+0.53	2.29	2,013	56
Hunter Brown R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.303	3.26	28.0%	18.7%	293	-0.21	2.77	845	55
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	55
Roy Oswalt R 2003 · 3.64 FIP	25	SP	3.64	21.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.279	3.08	19.3%	14.6%	699	-0.56	2.71	2,245	55
Yovani Gallardo R 2011 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	23.9%	6.7%	3.0%	.290	3.79	20.2%	12.2%	577	+0.23	2.88	1,866	55
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	54
Chad Billingsley R 2009 · 3.61 FIP	25	SP	3.61	21.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.285	3.21	19.8%	11.7%	529	-0.40	2.81	1,230	53
Kevin Gausman R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	23.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.305	3.98	21.5%	14.3%	473	+0.22	2.34	2,103	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.1	155	28.9%	7.0%	1.10	3.34
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32