Paul Skenes P Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 260 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 6.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7364vR 55
ERA2.50
FIP2.49
K%30.1%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%24.5%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP
K: +13.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+14KBB: +8.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+9BBCONTACT: +8.8 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+9CONTACTSTAM: +24.3 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+24STAMTotal WAR: +5.86 (179 IP)+5.9WAR
0.03.06.02.45.65.65.4+$82M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—65
STUF6060
CTRL6060
CMD7070
K†7070
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p9029.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.258
FB+4.2 (51%)
SL+1.1 (19%)
SI (11%)
CH-1.2 (15%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2024
Service   2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$0.4M+2.4$19M+$18M
2027Arb-1$12M+5.6$42M+$30M
2028Arb-2$23M+5.6$38M+$20M
2029Arb-3$34M+5.4$34M+$10M
Totals $69M $133M +$79M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202321MIX3 levels557281020100%1.335.7%7.1%28.6%0.0%5.400.99—
202321MIX3 levels557281020100%1.335.7%7.1%28.6%0.0%5.401.00—
202422MIX2 levels30301606192154011100%5.333.9%6.5%27.3%1.8%1.802.08+6.2
202422MIX2 levels30301606192154011100%5.334.7%6.5%28.3%1.8%1.802.06+6.3
202523MLBPittsburgh Pirates32321887332164211100%5.929.5%5.7%23.7%1.5%1.972.17+7.1
202523MLBPittsburgh Pirates32321887332164211100%5.929.5%5.7%23.7%1.5%1.972.23+7.0
▸ 2026 Season
202624MLBPittsburgh Pirates20201084401302411100%5.429.5%5.5%24.1%2.5%3.572.67+3.5
ROS24MLBPIT13137029689177100%5.430.1%5.7%24.5%2.2%2.502.49+1.9
ROS24MLBPIT12127029689176100%5.830.1%5.7%24.5%2.2%2.492.48+1.9
2026 TOT24MLBPIT——1797362194118——29.8%5.5%24.2%2.4%3.152.60+5.9
2026 FULL24MLBPIT——1797542194118——29.1%5.4%23.7%2.3%3.152.60+5.8
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBPIT32321867862404417100%5.830.5%5.6%24.9%2.2%2.832.82+5.6
202826MLBPIT31311867862414417100%6.030.6%5.6%25.0%2.2%2.822.81+5.6
202927MLBPIT31311837742374417100%5.930.6%5.7%24.9%2.2%2.842.85+5.5
203028MLBPIT30301787512294418100%5.930.5%5.9%24.6%2.3%2.892.93+5.1
203129MLBPIT28281707172144418100%6.129.9%6.1%23.8%2.5%3.013.09+4.6
203230MLBPIT27271606741974318100%5.929.2%6.4%22.8%2.7%3.183.30+3.9
203331MLBPIT25251496291794218100%6.028.4%6.7%21.7%2.9%3.393.53+3.3
203432MLBPIT23231385811614218100%6.027.7%7.1%20.5%3.2%3.633.79+2.6
203533MLBPIT21211265331434018100%6.026.8%7.6%19.2%3.4%3.894.06+2.0
203634MLBPIT19191154851263918100%6.025.9%8.1%17.8%3.7%4.184.37+1.4
203735MLBPIT17171034351093818100%6.124.9%8.6%16.3%4.1%4.504.71+0.8
203836MLBPIT151591385923617100%6.123.9%9.2%14.7%4.5%4.845.07+0.2
203937MLBPIT131380336833116100%6.124.8%9.1%15.7%4.9%5.065.20-0.2
202725MLBPIT32321867852404417100%5.830.5%5.6%24.9%2.2%2.822.81+5.6
202826MLBPIT31311867852404417100%6.030.6%5.6%25.0%2.2%2.812.80+5.6
202927MLBPIT30301837732374417100%6.130.6%5.7%24.9%2.2%2.832.84+5.5
203028MLBPIT30301787522294417100%5.930.5%5.9%24.6%2.3%2.882.92+5.2
203129MLBPIT28281707182154418100%6.129.9%6.1%23.8%2.5%3.003.08+4.6
203230MLBPIT27271606761974318100%5.929.2%6.4%22.8%2.7%3.173.29+3.9
203331MLBPIT25251496291794218100%6.028.4%6.7%21.7%2.9%3.383.52+3.3
203432MLBPIT23231385831614218100%6.027.7%7.1%20.5%3.1%3.623.78+2.6
203533MLBPIT21211265321434018100%6.026.8%7.6%19.2%3.4%3.884.05+2.0
203634MLBPIT19191154861263918100%6.125.9%8.1%17.8%3.7%4.174.36+1.4
203735MLBPIT17171034351083818100%6.124.9%8.6%16.3%4.1%4.494.70+0.8
203836MLBPIT151591384923617100%6.123.9%9.2%14.7%4.4%4.835.06+0.2
203937MLBPIT131380338843116100%6.224.8%9.1%15.7%4.8%5.055.19-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—400400236498582856646267100%5.929.0%6.6%22.4%2.7%3.202.97+67.2
/ 200 IP—34342008342425523100%5.929.0%6.6%22.4%2.7%3.202.97+5.7
Career—8787463182056610834100%5.331.1%6.0%25.1%1.8%2.332.24+17.1
/ 200 IP—38382007862444714100%5.331.1%6.0%25.1%1.8%2.332.24+7.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Paul Skenes (OGILVIE) —— 2.64 31.5%6.0%1.9%— 2.83 30.6%24.9%556 +0.19 ———
Jacob deGrom R 2029 · 2.58 FIP 27 SP 2.58 27.3%4.8%2.1%.269 2.68 28.8%23.0%566 +0.10 0.75 1,489 60
Danny Salazar R 2027 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP 3.47 25.8%6.9%3.0%.273 3.48 29.9%19.7%240 +0.01 3.34 425 57
Gerrit Cole R 2026 · 2.44 FIP 24 SP 2.44 24.3%5.2%1.3%.299 3.18 26.7%19.6%519 +0.74 2.31 1,763 57
Jon Gray R 2026 · 2.98 FIP 24 SP 2.98 26.0%8.0%1.9%.299 3.25 24.1%16.9%433 +0.27 2.79 1,345 56
Chris Archer R 2028 · 2.88 FIP 26 SP 2.88 29.0%7.6%2.3%.294 3.57 27.5%20.1%551 +0.69 2.88 1,018 55
Luis Severino R 2026 · 2.71 FIP 24 SP 2.71 28.2%5.9%2.3%.311 — ——— — 2.71 1,293 55
José Fernández R 2026 · 2.07 FIP 24 SP 2.07 34.3%6.6%1.9%.322 — ——— — 2.07 267 55
Stephen Strasburg R 2029 · 2.70 FIP 27 SP 2.70 29.6%5.0%2.7%.308 2.81 29.5%22.9%453 +0.11 2.42 811 55
George Kirby R 2026 · 3.10 FIP 24 SP 3.10 25.0%4.3%2.9%.319 3.19 23.7%20.3%508 +0.09 2.16 840 54
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2026 · 3.08 FIP 24 SP 3.08 24.3%5.1%2.5%.276 3.14 24.9%21.0%111 +0.06 3.08 318 54
Matt Harvey R 2028 · 2.90 FIP 26 SP 2.90 24.9%4.6%2.4%.268 4.41 18.4%11.6%340 +1.51 2.90 806 54
Spencer Strider R 2026 · 2.52 FIP 24 SP 2.52 36.8%7.5%2.9%.308 4.24 26.6%16.5%178 +1.72 1.65 589 53
Joe Ryan R 2025 · 2.43 FIP 23 SP 2.43 29.2%6.2%1.8%.264 3.45 27.6%20.9%240 +1.02 2.43 941 53
Logan Gilbert R 2026 · 3.56 FIP 24 SP 3.56 25.4%5.2%3.6%.286 3.46 25.0%20.0%585 -0.10 3.22 1,084 53
Yordano Ventura R 2026 · 3.43 FIP 24 SP 3.43 22.5%8.2%2.2%.300 4.46 17.6%8.2%186 +1.03 3.43 349 52
Luis Castillo R 2026 · 3.02 FIP 24 SP 3.02 24.2%6.7%2.0%.265 3.50 27.0%18.5%430 +0.48 2.46 1,817 51
José Berríos R 2026 · 3.62 FIP 24 SP 3.62 25.3%7.5%3.1%.263 3.44 24.7%18.2%455 -0.18 3.01 1,889 51
Germán Márquez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP 24 SP 3.36 24.3%4.9%3.1%.301 3.57 21.3%13.4%443 +0.21 2.76 1,507 50
Brock Stewart R 2026 · 3.09 FIP 24 SP 3.09 22.8%5.3%2.2%.283 5.03 17.9%9.0%276 +1.94 1.51 596 50
Zebby Matthews R 2026 · 3.38 FIP 24 SP 3.38 24.7%3.4%3.5%.307 4.20 22.9%16.1%217 +0.82 3.15 457 50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION1414628.8%6.7%1.093.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)911723.9%6.0%1.133.73
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
Lance Lynn ('24)915423.9%8.1%1.203.86
Jon Gray ('24)1012223.4%7.8%1.154.45
Corey Kluber ('23)814926.1%5.4%1.053.48
Kenta Maeda ('24)812225.9%6.9%1.304.17