Paul Skenes — OGILVIE

Paul Skenes P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 260 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 6.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION162 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8576vR 68

ERA2.72

FIP2.72

K%28.7%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%22.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 176 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$40M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD7070

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6627.8%

p8027.8%

xwOBA vs

p830.280

FB+4.2 (53%)

SL+1.1 (20%)

SI (12%)

CH-1.2 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Arb-1	$12M	+4.1	$43M	+$32M
2028	Arb-2	$20M	+4.2	$41M	+$25M
2029	Arb-3	$29M	+4.0	$35M	+$14M
Totals		$61M		$120M	+$72M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.99	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.99	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	33.5%	6.3%	27.2%	1.9%	1.80	2.14	+5.8
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	33.5%	6.3%	27.2%	1.9%	1.80	2.14	+5.8
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	34.7%	6.5%	28.3%	1.8%	1.80	2.06	+6.0
2025	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.6%	1.97	2.23	+6.6
2025	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.6%	1.97	2.23	+6.6
2025	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.5%	1.97	2.23	+6.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	85	483	1912	571	120	38	100%	5.7	29.9%	6.3%	23.6%	2.0%	2.57	2.50	+14.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	30	30	162	665	185	46	17	100%	5.4	27.8%	6.9%	20.9%	2.8%	3.78	3.14	+3.5
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	30	30	162	665	185	46	17	100%	5.4	27.8%	6.9%	20.9%	2.8%	3.78	3.14	+3.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	MLB RAW	PIT	30	30	162	665	185	46	17	100%	5.4	27.8%	6.9%	20.9%	2.6%	3.78	3.03	+3.8
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	PIT	30	30	162	665	185	46	17	100%	5.4	27.8%	6.9%	20.9%	2.6%	3.78	3.03	+3.8
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	3	3	14	60	17	4	1	100%	4.7	28.7%	6.6%	22.1%	2.2%	2.72	2.72	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	14	59	17	4	1	100%	7.0	28.7%	6.6%	22.1%	2.0%	2.63	2.63	+0.4
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	176	725	202	50	18	—	—	27.9%	6.9%	21.0%	2.5%	3.69	3.11	+3.9
FULL	24	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	176	744	202	50	18	—	—	27.2%	6.7%	20.5%	2.4%	3.69	3.00	+3.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	32	32	186	786	229	51	18	100%	5.8	29.1%	6.5%	22.6%	2.3%	3.12	3.11	+4.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	31	31	186	786	230	51	18	100%	6.0	29.2%	6.5%	22.7%	2.3%	3.11	3.10	+4.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	31	31	183	774	226	51	18	100%	5.9	29.2%	6.6%	22.6%	2.4%	3.13	3.14	+4.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	178	751	219	51	18	100%	5.9	29.1%	6.8%	22.4%	2.5%	3.19	3.23	+3.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	170	717	205	50	19	100%	6.1	28.5%	7.0%	21.5%	2.6%	3.31	3.39	+3.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	160	674	188	49	19	100%	5.9	27.8%	7.3%	20.5%	2.8%	3.48	3.59	+2.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	149	629	170	48	19	100%	6.0	27.1%	7.6%	19.4%	3.0%	3.69	3.83	+1.9
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	138	581	153	47	19	100%	6.0	26.3%	8.0%	18.2%	3.3%	3.92	4.08	+1.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	126	533	136	45	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	3.6%	4.18	4.36	+0.8
2036	34	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	485	119	44	19	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	3.9%	4.47	4.66	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	32	32	186	785	229	51	17	100%	5.8	29.1%	6.5%	22.6%	2.1%	3.02	3.01	+4.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	31	31	186	785	230	51	17	100%	6.0	29.2%	6.5%	22.7%	2.1%	3.01	3.00	+4.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	30	30	183	773	226	51	17	100%	6.1	29.2%	6.6%	22.6%	2.2%	3.03	3.04	+4.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	30	30	178	752	219	51	17	100%	5.9	29.1%	6.8%	22.4%	2.3%	3.09	3.13	+3.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	170	718	205	50	17	100%	6.1	28.5%	7.0%	21.5%	2.4%	3.20	3.28	+3.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	160	676	188	49	18	100%	5.9	27.8%	7.3%	20.5%	2.6%	3.36	3.47	+2.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	149	629	170	48	18	100%	6.0	27.1%	7.6%	19.4%	2.8%	3.57	3.71	+1.9
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	138	583	153	47	18	100%	6.0	26.3%	8.0%	18.2%	3.0%	3.78	3.94	+1.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	126	532	135	45	18	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	3.3%	4.03	4.21	+0.8
2036	34	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	115	486	119	44	17	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	3.6%	4.31	4.50	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		354	354	2088	8690	2462	611	212	100%	5.9	28.3%	7.0%	21.3%	2.4%	3.18	2.94	+51.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	832	236	59	20	100%	5.9	28.3%	7.0%	21.3%	2.4%	3.18	2.94	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		97	97	517	2045	618	129	42	100%	5.3	30.2%	6.3%	23.9%	2.1%	2.53	2.48	+40.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	792	239	50	16	100%	5.3	30.2%	6.3%	23.9%	2.1%	2.53	2.48	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Skenes (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.68	31.5%	5.9%	2.0%	—	3.12	29.2%	22.7%	556	+0.44	—	—	—
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	71
José Berríos R 2018 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	25.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.263	3.45	24.7%	18.2%	455	-0.18	3.06	1,889	67
Germán Márquez R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP	3.62	24.3%	4.9%	3.6%	.301	3.77	21.3%	13.4%	443	+0.15	2.96	1,542	64
Jon Gray R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	24	SP	3.15	26.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.299	3.45	24.1%	16.9%	433	+0.30	2.93	1,345	63
Danny Salazar R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.8%	6.9%	3.0%	.273	3.48	29.9%	19.7%	240	+0.01	3.34	425	61
Carlos Martinez R 2016 · 3.46 FIP	24	SP	3.46	21.5%	8.5%	2.0%	.279	3.44	24.6%	15.7%	372	-0.02	2.53	849	61
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	60
Spencer Strider R 2023 · 2.52 FIP	24	SP	2.52	36.8%	7.5%	2.9%	.308	4.25	26.4%	16.4%	178	+1.73	1.65	589	60
Taijuan Walker R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP	3.65	21.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.281	4.18	21.0%	12.5%	66	+0.53	3.51	1,276	60
Aaron Nola R 2017 · 3.05 FIP	24	SP	3.05	26.6%	6.8%	2.4%	.306	3.10	27.9%	20.2%	486	+0.05	2.29	1,999	60
Jacob deGrom R 2015 · 2.57 FIP	27	SP	2.57	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.11	0.74	1,538	59
Gerrit Cole R 2015 · 2.49 FIP	24	SP	2.49	24.3%	5.2%	1.4%	.299	3.28	26.7%	19.6%	519	+0.79	2.48	1,829	59
José Fernández R 2016 · 2.06 FIP	24	SP	2.06	34.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.06	267	58
Chris Archer R 2015 · 2.85 FIP	26	SP	2.85	29.0%	7.6%	2.2%	.294	3.57	27.5%	20.1%	551	+0.72	2.85	1,018	57
Yordano Ventura R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	24	SP	3.44	22.5%	8.2%	2.2%	.300	4.48	17.6%	8.2%	186	+1.04	3.44	349	57
Alek Manoah R 2022 · 3.11 FIP	24	SP	3.11	22.9%	6.5%	2.0%	.237	5.26	20.4%	8.6%	163	+2.15	3.08	520	56
Matt Harvey R 2015 · 2.90 FIP	26	SP	2.90	24.9%	4.6%	2.4%	.268	4.38	18.4%	11.6%	340	+1.48	2.90	806	55
Luis Castillo R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	24.2%	6.7%	2.1%	.265	3.47	27.0%	18.5%	430	+0.39	2.44	1,858	54
Logan Gilbert R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	25.4%	5.2%	3.5%	.286	3.41	25.0%	20.0%	585	-0.10	3.04	1,142	54
George Kirby R 2022 · 3.03 FIP	24	SP	3.03	25.0%	4.3%	2.7%	.319	3.14	23.7%	20.3%	508	+0.11	2.18	895	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	161	28.3%	7.1%	1.04	3.40
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45