Paul Skenes

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 260 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 4.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	30	30	160	1.80	2.06	34.7%	6.5%	7.0	K 33.7% · BB 6.3% · FIP 2.12
2025	23	MLBPIT	32	32	188	1.97	2.23	29.5%	5.7%	7.8
2026	24	MLBPIT	32	32	174	3.82	3.14	28.1%	6.9%	4.9
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	27	27	159	3.12	3.21	29.8%	6.5%	4.3
2028PROJ	26	MLBPIT	23	23	140	3.06	3.10	29.9%	6.5%	3.8
2029PROJ	27	MLBPIT	22	22	131	3.10	3.13	29.9%	6.6%	3.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 19.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 11.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$9M2028Arb-2$14M2029Arb-3$19M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

K%82

xwOBA vs82

Form3.99 ERA (proj 3.12) · K 21.2% (proj 29.8%) · BB 6.8% (proj 6.5%) ▼▼ last 60d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsCarlos Martinez (age 25) · Luis Severino (age 24) · José Berríos (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.12

FIP3.21

K%29.8%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%23.3%

Proj IP159

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$51M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p8228.1%

xwOBA vs

p820.281

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$9M	+4.3	$50M	+$41M
2028	Arb-2	$14M	+3.8	$37M	+$25M
2029	Arb-3	$19M	+3.5	$30M	+$15M
Totals		$42M		$117M	+$81M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	0.99	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	100%	1.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	33.7%	6.3%	27.4%	1.9%	1.80	2.12	+6.9
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	33.7%	6.3%	27.4%	1.9%	1.80	2.12	+6.9
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	100%	5.3	34.7%	6.5%	28.3%	1.8%	1.80	2.06	+7.0
2025	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.6%	1.97	2.23	+7.8
2025	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.6%	1.97	2.23	+7.8
2025	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	5.7%	23.7%	1.5%	1.97	2.23	+7.8
2026	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	174	712	200	49	20	100%	5.4	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	3.0%	3.82	3.27	+4.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	174	712	200	49	20	100%	5.4	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	3.0%	3.82	3.27	+4.6
2026	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	174	712	200	49	20	100%	5.4	28.1%	6.9%	21.2%	2.8%	3.82	3.14	+4.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			87	87	495	1959	586	123	41	100%	5.7	29.9%	6.3%	23.6%	2.1%	2.62	2.55	+18.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	27	27	159	671	200	44	18	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.5%	23.3%	2.6%	3.12	3.21	+4.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	140	590	177	38	15	100%	6.1	29.9%	6.5%	23.4%	2.6%	3.17	3.21	+3.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	552	165	36	15	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.6%	23.4%	2.7%	3.21	3.24	+3.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	127	536	160	36	15	100%	6.0	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	2.8%	3.28	3.33	+3.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	119	501	146	35	15	100%	5.9	29.2%	7.0%	22.3%	2.9%	3.41	3.49	+2.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	108	456	130	33	14	100%	6.0	28.5%	7.3%	21.3%	3.1%	3.58	3.70	+2.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	95	402	112	31	13	100%	5.9	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	3.3%	3.79	3.93	+1.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	79	335	90	27	12	100%	6.1	27.0%	8.0%	19.0%	3.6%	4.03	4.18	+1.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	62	260	68	22	10	100%	6.2	26.1%	8.5%	17.7%	3.9%	4.29	4.46	+0.7
2036	34	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	43	182	46	16	8	100%	6.2	25.2%	9.0%	16.3%	4.2%	4.58	4.77	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	140	591	177	38	14	100%	6.1	29.9%	6.5%	23.4%	2.4%	3.06	3.10	+3.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	131	553	166	36	14	100%	6.0	29.9%	6.6%	23.4%	2.5%	3.10	3.13	+3.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	127	536	160	36	14	100%	6.0	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	2.6%	3.17	3.22	+3.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	119	502	147	35	14	100%	6.0	29.2%	7.0%	22.3%	2.7%	3.29	3.37	+2.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	108	456	130	33	13	100%	6.0	28.5%	7.3%	21.3%	2.9%	3.45	3.57	+2.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	95	401	111	31	12	100%	5.9	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	3.1%	3.65	3.79	+1.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	79	334	90	27	11	100%	6.1	27.0%	8.0%	19.0%	3.3%	3.88	4.03	+1.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	62	262	68	22	9	100%	6.2	26.1%	8.5%	17.7%	3.6%	4.13	4.30	+0.7
2036	34	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	43	182	46	16	7	100%	6.1	25.2%	9.0%	16.3%	3.8%	4.41	4.60	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	238	1398	5774	1680	398	149	100%	5.9	29.1%	6.9%	22.2%	2.6%	3.14	2.93	+43.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	826	240	57	21	100%	5.9	29.1%	6.9%	22.2%	2.6%	3.14	2.93	+6.2
Career	—	MLE		99	99	529	2092	635	132	46	100%	5.3	30.3%	6.3%	24.0%	2.2%	2.57	2.53	+36.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	791	240	50	17	100%	5.3	30.3%	6.3%	24.0%	2.2%	2.57	2.53	+5.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 27 IPFIP 0.97 → 1.49 (+0.52)K% 42.9% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.860	36.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×0.900	6.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷0.909	×1.100	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 0.97 → 1.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Skenes (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.26	29.9%	23.3%	398	+0.05	—	—	—
Carlos Martinez R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP	3.83	25.3%	7.9%	3.4%	.278	3.29	22.9%	13.1%	187	-0.54	2.53	967	64
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	63
José Berríos R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.2%	6.1%	3.1%	.295	3.72	23.4%	17.0%	427	+0.12	3.06	1,889	60
Lucas Giolito R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	32.3%	7.9%	3.4%	.270	3.64	27.9%	19.8%	413	+0.43	2.84	1,542	60
Noah Syndergaard R 2018 · 2.56 FIP	25	SP	2.56	24.1%	5.7%	1.4%	.314	3.37	24.5%	18.7%	198	+0.81	0.99	984	59
Javier Vazquez R 2001 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.2%	4.5%	2.7%	.276	3.81	20.7%	15.3%	659	+0.63	2.67	2,840	59
Josh Beckett R 2005 · 3.20 FIP	25	SP	3.20	22.8%	7.7%	1.9%	.283	3.63	21.7%	15.7%	580	+0.43	2.86	2,051	59
José Fernández R 2016 · 2.06 FIP	24	SP	2.06	34.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.06	491	59
Stephen Strasburg R 2013 · 3.05 FIP	25	SP	3.05	26.1%	7.5%	2.2%	.256	2.76	29.2%	23.7%	490	-0.29	1.08	1,460	58
Brett Myers R 2006 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	22.7%	7.2%	3.5%	.297	4.46	21.0%	13.4%	329	+0.45	3.52	1,710	58
Jake Peavy R 2006 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	25.4%	6.0%	2.7%	.294	2.95	25.6%	17.9%	499	-0.26	2.53	2,409	56
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	56
Aaron Nola R 2018 · 2.71 FIP	25	SP	2.71	27.0%	6.6%	1.9%	.247	3.24	29.0%	21.9%	454	+0.53	2.29	2,013	56
Hunter Brown R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.303	3.26	28.0%	18.7%	293	-0.21	2.77	845	55
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	55
Roy Oswalt R 2003 · 3.64 FIP	25	SP	3.64	21.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.279	3.08	19.3%	14.6%	699	-0.56	2.71	2,245	55
Yovani Gallardo R 2011 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	23.9%	6.7%	3.0%	.290	3.79	20.2%	12.2%	577	+0.23	2.88	1,866	55
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	54
Chad Billingsley R 2009 · 3.61 FIP	25	SP	3.61	21.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.285	3.21	19.8%	11.7%	529	-0.40	2.81	1,230	53
Kevin Gausman R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	23.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.305	3.98	21.5%	14.3%	473	+0.22	2.34	2,103	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	120	29.2%	6.8%	1.05	3.21
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Bruce Sutter ('76-'88, 22 WAR*)	5.2	95	28.5%*	7.3%*	1.12*	3.14*
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*