Paul Skenes — OGILVIE

Paul Skenes P Pittsburgh Pirates

+5.2 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 260 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 5.1 · 2026

ERA2.44

FIP2.76

xFIP3.85

SIERA3.52

K%30.0%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%23.8%

IP178

trajectory · 10 yrs

5.1peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p7126.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.247

FB+4.2 (50%)

SL+1.1 (17%)

SI (14%)

CU (1%)

CH-1.2 (18%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	AA	Altoona Curve	5	5	7	28	10	2	0	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
2024	22	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	30	30	160	619	215	40	11	33.9%	6.5%	1.8%	1.80	2.07	+5.9
2025	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	188	733	216	42	11	29.5%	5.7%	1.5%	1.97	2.17	+6.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	4	18	72	18	7	2	25.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.00	3.75	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB	PIT	27	27	148	624	190	43	13	30.4%	6.9%	2.1%	2.21	2.53	+4.6
2026 Total	24	MLB	PIT	—	—	166	696	208	50	15	29.9%	7.2%	2.1%	2.41	2.66	+5.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	PIT	31	31	168	710	218	48	14	30.7%	6.8%	2.0%	2.75	2.87	+4.6
2028	26	MLB	PIT	30	30	163	689	212	47	14	30.8%	6.8%	2.0%	2.82	2.86	+4.5
2029	27	MLB	PIT	28	28	155	653	201	45	13	30.8%	6.8%	2.1%	2.85	2.87	+4.3
2030	28	MLB	PIT	26	26	144	607	187	42	13	30.7%	6.9%	2.1%	2.88	2.90	+3.9
2031	29	MLB	PIT	24	24	131	551	167	38	12	30.3%	7.0%	2.1%	2.94	2.97	+3.5
2032	30	MLB	PIT	21	21	118	497	148	35	11	29.7%	7.1%	2.2%	3.01	3.06	+3.0
2033	31	MLB	PIT	19	19	106	446	130	32	10	29.1%	7.2%	2.3%	3.11	3.17	+2.6
2034	32	MLB	PIT	17	17	94	399	114	29	9	28.5%	7.3%	2.3%	3.21	3.28	+2.1
2035	33	MLB	PIT	15	15	84	354	99	27	9	27.9%	7.5%	2.4%	3.33	3.41	+1.7
2036	34	MLB	PIT	13	13	74	312	91	22	8	29.1%	6.9%	2.5%	3.30	3.28	+1.5
2037	35	MLB	PIT	12	12	65	274	78	20	7	28.4%	7.1%	2.6%	3.38	3.43	+1.2
2038	36	MLB	PIT	56	—	56	238	66	18	7	27.6%	7.4%	2.8%	3.51	3.59	+0.9
2039	37	MLB	PIT	49	—	49	205	55	16	6	26.8%	7.7%	2.9%	3.67	3.77	+0.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			71	71	373	1452	454	91	24	31.2%	6.3%	1.7%	2.05	2.18	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—			38	38	200	779	244	49	13	31.2%	6.3%	1.7%	2.05	2.18	+7.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Skenes (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.60	32.5%	6.3%	1.9%	—	2.87	30.7%	23.9%	486	+0.27	—	—	—
Gerrit Cole R 2026 · 2.39 FIP	24	SP	2.39	24.3%	5.2%	1.2%	.299	3.26	26.7%	19.6%	519	+0.87	2.36	1,699	63
Yordano Ventura R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	24	SP	3.40	22.5%	8.2%	2.1%	.300	4.51	17.6%	8.2%	186	+1.11	3.40	349	63
Danny Salazar R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP	3.48	25.8%	6.9%	3.1%	.273	3.44	29.9%	19.7%	240	-0.04	3.40	425	62
Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	24	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.0%	2.4%	.299	3.48	24.1%	16.9%	433	+0.26	2.92	1,345	61
Jacob deGrom R 2029 · 2.58 FIP	27	SP	2.58	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.71	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.13	0.75	1,404	59
Carlos Martinez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	21.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.279	3.45	24.6%	15.7%	372	+0.07	2.56	849	58
Anthony DeSclafani R 2027 · 3.42 FIP	25	SP	3.42	19.2%	6.4%	2.1%	.312	4.14	21.4%	16.0%	251	+0.72	3.42	981	57
Chris Archer R 2028 · 2.80 FIP	26	SP	2.80	29.0%	7.6%	2.2%	.294	3.49	27.5%	20.1%	551	+0.69	2.80	1,018	56
Luis Castillo R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	24	SP	3.11	24.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.265	3.46	27.0%	18.5%	430	+0.35	2.42	1,748	56
José Berríos R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	25.3%	7.5%	2.7%	.263	3.49	24.7%	18.2%	455	+0.10	3.05	1,889	56
Matt Harvey R 2028 · 2.90 FIP	26	SP	2.90	24.9%	4.6%	2.4%	.268	4.36	18.4%	11.6%	340	+1.46	2.90	806	56
Garrett Richards R 2029 · 3.67 FIP	27	SP	3.67	20.3%	8.6%	2.2%	.271	3.44	25.5%	16.1%	139	-0.23	2.27	577	56
Jake Odorizzi R 2027 · 3.52 FIP	25	SP	3.52	21.4%	6.6%	2.5%	.270	4.33	21.8%	13.3%	495	+0.81	3.23	1,048	55
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	24	SP	3.15	24.3%	5.1%	2.6%	.276	3.14	24.9%	21.0%	111	-0.01	3.14	318	55
Shelby Miller R 2026 · 3.26 FIP	24	SP	3.26	19.9%	7.6%	1.6%	.278	4.03	18.5%	10.5%	190	+0.77	2.77	694	55
Bobby Miller R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	24	SP	3.36	22.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.266	5.42	18.5%	4.4%	173	+2.06	2.41	471	54
Michael Fulmer R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	24	SP	3.40	16.9%	5.6%	1.8%	.268	4.76	18.8%	10.6%	160	+1.36	2.98	874	54
Nolan McLean R 2026 · 3.26 FIP	24	SP	3.26	25.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.254	2.20	31.5%	22.5%	24	-1.06	2.20	295	54
Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 2.62 FIP	24	SP	2.62	19.5%	6.5%	0.6%	.298	4.11	20.1%	14.5%	319	+1.49	2.34	803	54
Brock Stewart R 2026 · 3.05 FIP	24	SP	3.05	22.8%	5.3%	2.2%	.283	4.98	17.9%	9.0%	276	+1.93	1.56	596	54

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$1M	+5.1	$41M	+$40M
2027	Arb-1	$10M	+4.6	$38M	+$28M
2028	Arb-2	$17M	+4.5	$38M	+$21M
2029	Arb-3	$24M	+4.3	$38M	+$14M
Totals		$52M		$154M	+$103M