José Berríos — OGILVIE

José Berríos P Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 161 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.45

FIP4.70

K%20.1%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP161

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$39M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

FB+1.0 (51%)

SI (33%)

CU (26%)

CT-0.5 (6%)

CH-1.6 (17%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$19M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	$19M	—	—	—
Totals		$39M		$-2M	-$36M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$36M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	166	667	175	38	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	6.2%	16.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.06	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	166	667	175	38	12	100%	6.2	26.2%	5.7%	20.5%	1.8%	2.87	2.62	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	170	713	174	71	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.14	+1.5
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	170	713	174	71	20	100%	5.5	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	2.8%	4.40	3.84	+2.2
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	185	768	178	56	17	97%	5.8	22.6%	7.3%	15.2%	2.2%	3.30	3.36	+3.5
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	185	768	178	56	17	97%	5.8	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.2%	3.30	3.28	+3.7
2018	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	192	797	202	60	25	100%	6.0	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.1%	3.84	3.63	+3.0
2018	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	192	797	202	60	25	100%	6.0	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.1%	3.84	3.63	+3.0
2019	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	200	842	195	51	26	100%	6.3	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	3.1%	3.68	3.60	+3.2
2019	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	200	842	195	51	26	100%	6.3	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	3.1%	3.68	3.60	+3.2
2020	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	12	12	63	271	68	26	8	100%	5.2	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.00	3.81	+0.8
2020	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	12	12	63	271	68	26	8	100%	5.2	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	3.0%	4.00	3.83	+0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	781	204	45	22	100%	6.0	26.1%	5.8%	20.4%	2.8%	3.52	3.17	+4.1
2021	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	781	204	45	22	100%	6.0	26.1%	5.8%	20.4%	2.8%	3.52	3.17	+4.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	172	753	149	45	29	100%	5.4	19.8%	6.0%	13.8%	3.9%	5.23	4.30	+1.2
2022	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	172	753	149	45	29	100%	5.4	19.8%	6.0%	13.8%	3.9%	5.23	4.34	+1.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	190	782	184	49	25	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.3%	17.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.66	+2.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	190	782	184	49	25	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.3%	17.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.66	+2.9
2023	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	190	782	184	49	25	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.3%	17.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.65	+2.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	786	153	53	31	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.60	4.48	+0.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	786	153	53	31	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.60	4.48	+0.9
2024	30	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	786	153	53	31	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.60	4.43	+1.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	30	166	698	138	54	26	97%	5.4	19.8%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.17	4.45	+0.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	30	166	698	138	54	26	97%	5.4	19.8%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.17	4.45	+0.9
2025	31	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	30	166	698	138	54	26	97%	5.4	19.8%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.17	4.45	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			275	273	1572	6607	1481	466	219	99%	5.7	22.4%	7.1%	15.4%	3.3%	4.08	3.92	+18.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	4	4	14	68	11	7	6	100%	3.6	—	—	—	—	10.67	—	—
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	4	4	14	68	11	7	6	100%	3.6	—	—	—	—	10.67	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	A RAW	TOR	2	2	7	28	8	1	1	100%	3.4	28.6%	3.6%	25.0%	3.6%	6.75	3.10	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	TOR	2	2	8	40	3	6	5	100%	3.9	7.5%	15.0%	-7.5%	12.5%	14.09	11.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	148	625	120	48	24	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.9%	4.77	4.98	-0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	135	569	104	47	24	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.2%	5.08	5.28	-0.6
2027	33	MLB CTX	TOR	25	25	148	625	120	48	24	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.9%	4.77	4.98	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	135	570	104	47	24	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.2%	5.08	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	320	1854	7801	1705	561	267	99%	5.8	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	3.4%	4.21	4.05	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	841	184	61	29	99%	5.8	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	3.4%	4.21	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		329	327	1903	7926	1784	560	249	99%	5.8	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.82	+17.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	34	200	833	187	59	26	99%	5.8	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.82	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Berríos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.1%	7.3%	3.6%	—	5.12	18.8%	10.8%	283	+0.42	—	—	—
Jake Arrieta R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	32	SP	3.97	19.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.283	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	279	+0.78	2.13	1,046	79
Tanner Roark R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	21.9%	6.9%	4.3%	.313	4.76	19.6%	9.9%	94	+0.29	3.13	942	68
Félix Hernández R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	32	SP	4.87	18.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.278	5.54	17.5%	9.8%	72	+0.67	3.60	682	67
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	3.86	918	66
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	65
Ian Kennedy R 2017 · 5.63 FIP	32	SP	5.63	20.0%	9.0%	5.6%	.253	4.30	22.7%	15.9%	197	-1.33	2.88	864	64
Iván Nova R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	32	SP	4.64	14.1%	5.7%	3.7%	.317	6.14	10.2%	0.0%	19	+1.50	4.03	810	63
Jordan Zimmermann R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP	4.89	20.0%	4.7%	5.3%	.286	4.47	16.3%	11.7%	112	-0.42	3.57	731	60
Jeff Samardzija R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	32	SP	3.62	24.2%	3.7%	3.8%	.299	4.96	17.7%	10.7%	260	+1.34	3.62	885	58
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,160	57
Kyle Gibson R 2020 · 4.73 FIP	32	SP	4.73	19.3%	9.6%	3.7%	.302	3.80	20.1%	12.8%	542	-0.93	3.56	1,689	55
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	53
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	469	53
Zack Greinke R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	20.1%	5.7%	3.4%	.292	3.31	24.5%	19.9%	619	-0.69	2.56	1,517	53
Johnny Cueto R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	17.8%	6.1%	4.0%	.245	4.30	20.0%	12.4%	194	-0.29	2.85	1,148	52
Yu Darvish R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	32	SP	3.98	31.3%	7.5%	4.7%	.258	3.10	28.0%	22.7%	437	-0.88	1.97	1,253	50
Andrew Cashner R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	32	SP-	4.50	17.0%	9.1%	3.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	786	48
Miles Mikolas R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	32	SP	4.27	16.4%	5.5%	3.4%	.269	4.09	17.3%	13.0%	575	-0.18	3.13	1,296	48
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	32	SP	4.10	19.6%	11.1%	2.3%	.315	4.95	21.5%	12.5%	143	+0.85	3.63	469	47
Aníbal Sánchez R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	32	SP-	4.95	20.2%	7.8%	4.7%	.313	4.15	21.5%	14.8%	424	-0.80	3.49	869	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	144	19.2%	7.7%	1.51	4.76
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56