José Berríos — OGILVIE

José Berríos P Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.9 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107

ERA4.45

FIP4.70

K%20.1%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

FB+1.0 (51%)

SI (33%)

CU (26%)

CT-0.5 (6%)

CH-1.6 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	MIX	2 levels	27	27	166	667	175	38	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	6.2%	16.0%	1.8%	2.87	3.01	—
2015	21	MIX	2 levels	27	27	166	667	175	38	12	100%	6.2	26.2%	5.7%	20.5%	1.8%	2.87	2.62	—
2016	22	MIX	2 levels	31	31	170	713	174	71	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.18	+2.4
2016	22	MIX	2 levels	31	31	170	713	174	71	20	100%	5.5	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	2.8%	4.40	3.84	+3.1
2017	23	MIX	2 levels	32	31	185	768	178	56	17	97%	5.8	22.6%	7.3%	15.2%	2.2%	3.30	3.36	+4.4
2017	23	MIX	2 levels	32	31	185	768	178	56	17	97%	5.8	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.2%	3.30	3.28	+4.6
2018	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	32	32	192	797	202	60	25	100%	6.0	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.1%	3.84	3.62	+4.0
2018	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	32	32	192	797	202	60	25	100%	6.0	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.1%	3.84	3.63	+4.0
2019	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	32	32	200	842	195	51	26	100%	6.3	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	3.1%	3.68	3.59	+4.2
2019	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	32	32	200	842	195	51	26	100%	6.3	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	3.1%	3.68	3.60	+4.2
2020	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	12	12	63	271	68	26	8	100%	5.2	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.00	3.80	+0.6
2020	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	12	12	63	271	68	26	8	100%	5.2	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	3.0%	4.00	3.83	+0.6
2021	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	781	204	45	22	100%	6.0	26.1%	5.8%	20.4%	2.8%	3.52	3.17	+5.0
2021	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	781	204	45	22	100%	6.0	26.1%	5.8%	20.4%	2.8%	3.52	3.17	+5.0
2022	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	172	753	149	45	29	100%	5.4	19.8%	6.0%	13.8%	3.9%	5.23	4.30	+2.2
2022	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	172	753	149	45	29	100%	5.4	19.8%	6.0%	13.8%	3.9%	5.23	4.34	+2.1
2023	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	190	782	184	49	25	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.3%	17.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.66	+3.9
2023	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	190	782	184	49	25	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.3%	17.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.65	+3.9
2024	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	786	153	53	31	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.60	4.48	+2.1
2024	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	192	786	153	53	31	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.60	4.43	+2.2
2025	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	30	166	698	138	54	26	97%	5.4	19.8%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.17	4.45	+1.8
2025	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	30	166	698	138	54	26	97%	5.4	19.8%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.17	4.45	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	4	4	14	68	11	7	6	100%	3.6	—	—	—	—	10.67	—	—
ROS	32	MLB	TOR	11	11	65	274	55	20	10	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	3.6%	4.45	4.70	-0.0
ROS	32	MLB	TOR	5	5	29	122	25	9	4	100%	5.8	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	3.6%	4.45	4.70	-0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB	TOR	—	—	79	342	66	27	16	—	—	19.3%	7.9%	11.4%	4.7%	5.58	3.85	+1.0
2026 FULL	32	MLB	TOR	—	—	29	123	25	9	4	—	—	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	3.6%	4.45	4.32	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	TOR	25	25	148	625	120	48	24	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.9%	4.77	4.98	+0.7
2028	34	MLB	TOR	22	22	135	569	104	47	24	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.2%	5.08	5.28	+0.2
2029	35	MLB	TOR	20	20	121	510	89	45	23	100%	6.0	17.3%	8.8%	8.6%	4.5%	5.40	5.62	-0.3
2027	33	MLB	TOR	25	25	148	625	120	48	24	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.9%	4.77	4.98	+0.7
2028	34	MLB	TOR	22	22	135	570	104	47	24	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.2%	5.08	5.28	+0.2
2029	35	MLB	TOR	20	20	121	511	89	45	23	100%	6.0	17.3%	8.8%	8.6%	4.5%	5.40	5.62	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			350	348	2004	8434	1818	615	295	99%	5.7	21.6%	7.3%	14.3%	3.5%	4.29	4.12	+30.0
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	842	181	61	29	99%	5.7	21.6%	7.3%	14.3%	3.5%	4.29	4.12	+3.0
Career	—			329	327	1903	7926	1784	560	248	99%	5.8	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.82	+35.3
/ 200 IP	—			35	34	200	833	187	59	26	99%	5.8	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.82	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Berríos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.1%	7.3%	3.6%	—	5.27	18.4%	10.1%	404	+0.57	—	—	—
Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	32	SP	4.03	19.1%	7.9%	2.8%	.283	4.89	17.9%	9.6%	279	+0.86	2.09	1,046	39
Miguel González R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	32	SP	3.73	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.74	14.1%	6.3%	168	+1.01	3.73	469	39
Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	32	SP	4.02	17.1%	7.1%	2.7%	.273	4.18	19.2%	12.4%	417	+0.16	3.66	720	39
Jake Peavy R 2028 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	17.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.278	4.36	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.27	4.09	262	38
Cory Riordan R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	30	SP	4.19	14.3%	5.0%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	154	38
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2029 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.23	13.4%	7.0%	84	+0.32	4.91	241	38
Edinson Volquez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	18.2%	8.4%	2.0%	.286	4.33	17.6%	7.6%	282	+0.61	3.72	498	38
Manuel Flores R 2025 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	15.8%	4.7%	2.1%	.305	4.08	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.53	3.55	515	38
Alfredo Simon R 2028 · 4.69 FIP	34	SP	4.69	14.3%	8.2%	3.2%	.289	5.63	12.3%	2.7%	74	+0.94	4.69	261	37
Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	32	SP	3.51	21.1%	5.8%	2.7%	.265	3.18	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.33	2.24	1,584	37
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	32	SP	3.83	19.5%	5.7%	3.0%	.297	3.64	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.19	3.54	1,102	37
Kyle Davies R 2025 · 3.72 FIP	31	SP	3.72	13.8%	6.1%	1.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	153	37
Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP	4.90	21.8%	9.2%	4.5%	.290	4.76	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.14	3.72	918	36
Nestor Molina R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	30	SP	4.12	16.1%	7.4%	2.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	401	36
James Shields R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	33	SP	4.36	25.1%	8.8%	4.1%	.292	5.12	17.9%	8.6%	517	+0.76	4.36	720	36
Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	32	SP	4.94	15.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.316	4.56	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.38	4.56	143	36
Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP	4.86	14.8%	10.6%	3.0%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.86	151	36
Tim Adleman R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	22.8%	7.8%	4.4%	.266	4.61	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.04	3.61	605	36
Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	32	SP	4.71	12.8%	8.4%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	277	35
Frankie De La Cruz R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	33	SP	3.70	15.2%	8.0%	1.6%	.262	4.34	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.64	3.70	240	35

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4	128	18.7%	8.0%	1.57	4.93
Jason Vargas ('19)	4	116	18.5%	8.2%	1.38	4.57
Dan Straily ('19)	4	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Félix Hernández ('19)	5	134	20.0%	8.1%	1.39	4.48
Marco Estrada ('19)	5	142	19.6%	8.3%	1.44	4.33
Ricky Nolasco ('17)	3	139	18.1%	6.5%	1.38	4.85
Jeremy Hellickson ('19)	5	126	17.5%	6.6%	1.44	4.49