José Berríos
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
+0.6
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 32
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
A
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.26
FIP4.58
xFIP4.43
SIERA4.46
K%20.3%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%12.9%
IP161
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
OFP—55
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
FB+1.0 (51%)
SI (33%)
CU (26%)
CT-0.5 (6%)
CH-1.6 (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 27 | 27 | 166 | 667 | 175 | 38 | 12 | 22.1% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 2.87 | 3.05 | +4.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 170 | 713 | 174 | 71 | 20 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.19 | +2.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 31 | 185 | 768 | 178 | 56 | 17 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 3.30 | 3.28 | +4.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 192 | 797 | 202 | 60 | 25 | 25.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.39 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 200 | 842 | 195 | 51 | 26 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.68 | 3.68 | +3.7 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 12 | 12 | 63 | 271 | 68 | 26 | 8 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 192 | 781 | 204 | 45 | 22 | 26.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 3.15 | +4.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 172 | 753 | 149 | 45 | 29 | 19.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 4.11 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 190 | 782 | 184 | 49 | 25 | 23.5% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.65 | 3.77 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 192 | 786 | 153 | 53 | 31 | 19.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 3.60 | 4.40 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 30 | 166 | 698 | 138 | 54 | 26 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 16.88 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 69 | 25 | 12 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.59 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 83 | 355 | 72 | 26 | 13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 154 | 650 | 127 | 49 | 23 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 146 | 618 | 116 | 48 | 22 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 105 | 47 | 22 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 129 | 544 | 94 | 45 | 21 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 83 | 43 | 20 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.23 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 326 | 324 | 1892 | 7872 | 1776 | 554 | 236 | 22.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.73 | +33.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 832 | 188 | 59 | 25 | 22.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.73 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Berríos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.86 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 438 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 39 |
| Dillon Gee R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 380 | 37 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 36 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 36 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.33 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.0% | .266 | 4.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.38 | 3.64 | 605 | 36 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 36 |
| Jerome Williams R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.66 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.79 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 4.66 | 195 | 35 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 35 |
| Yohan Pino R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 34 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 283 | 34 |
| Leo Medrano R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.75 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.59 | 3.75 | 222 | 34 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 34 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.86 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 550 | 34 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 34 |
| Tom Koehler R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.70 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 474 | 34 |
| Nick Martinez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.73 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 325 | -0.15 | 2.87 | 984 | 34 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.30 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.62 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.19 | 450 | 33 |
| Scott Feldman R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 33 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.66 | 12.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | .353 | 3.76 | 10.8% | 4.1% | 172 | +0.10 | 3.61 | 326 | 33 |
| Kodai Senga R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.96 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .268 | 3.69 | 29.7% | 18.8% | 14 | -0.27 | 3.38 | 305 | 33 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.