Aaron Nola

PosP

B/TR/R

Born1993-06-04

Age (2026)33

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.442 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2027	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	31	31	187	747	160	36	18	19.4%	5.0%	2.5%	2.89	3.47	+3.9
2016	23	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	111	483	121	26	10	25.1%	5.4%	2.1%	4.78	2.80	+3.1
2017	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	178	730	194	48	18	26.6%	6.8%	2.1%	3.38	2.86	+4.9
2018	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	212	831	224	55	17	27.0%	6.6%	1.9%	2.37	2.70	+6.3
2019	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	34	34	202	852	229	77	27	26.9%	9.0%	2.7%	3.87	3.45	+4.2
2020	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	12	12	71	289	96	21	9	33.2%	7.3%	2.8%	3.28	2.73	+1.9
2021	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	181	749	223	38	26	29.8%	5.1%	3.4%	4.63	3.09	+4.5
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	205	807	235	28	19	29.1%	3.5%	2.3%	3.25	2.34	+6.9
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	194	793	202	45	32	25.5%	5.7%	3.7%	4.46	3.70	+3.5
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	24.0%	6.1%	3.3%	3.57	3.67	+3.7
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	24.6%	6.8%	3.6%	5.57	3.85	+1.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	4	4	22	93	24	6	3	25.8%	6.5%	3.2%	4.03	3.51	+0.4
ROS	33	MLB	PHI	24	24	130	550	132	36	19	24.0%	6.6%	3.4%	3.74	3.78	+2.2
2026 Total	33	MLB	PHI	—	—	152	643	156	42	22	24.3%	6.6%	3.4%	3.78	3.74	+2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	PHI	26	26	145	612	143	42	21	23.3%	6.8%	3.5%	4.23	4.30	+1.6
2028	35	MLB	PHI	25	25	137	577	130	41	21	22.6%	7.1%	3.6%	4.36	4.45	+1.3
2029	36	MLB	PHI	23	23	128	539	118	39	20	21.8%	7.3%	3.7%	4.51	4.62	+1.0
2030	37	MLB	PHI	22	22	118	500	105	38	19	21.0%	7.6%	3.9%	4.68	4.79	+0.7
2031	38	MLB	PHI	20	20	109	460	93	36	18	20.1%	7.9%	4.0%	4.86	4.98	+0.4
2032	39	MLB	PHI	18	18	100	423	82	35	18	19.3%	8.2%	4.1%	5.04	5.17	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			312	312	1870	7649	2002	464	210	26.2%	6.1%	2.7%	3.72	3.17	+45.2
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	818	214	50	22	26.2%	6.1%	2.7%	3.72	3.17	+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Nola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	23.2%	6.7%	3.4%	—	4.45	22.6%	15.5%	409	+0.19	—	—	—
Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.39	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.32	4.07	262	45
Miguel González R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	14.6%	7.7%	3.2%	.285	6.86	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.26	3.76	469	44
Jeremy Guthrie R 2029 · 5.35 FIP	36	SP	5.35	12.7%	6.5%	4.5%	.309	4.87	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.48	4.87	235	44
Matt Buschmann R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	32	SP	4.83	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	277	44
Cory Riordan R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	43
Kyle Lohse R 2029 · 5.01 FIP	36	SP	5.01	16.2%	6.0%	4.6%	.309	5.01	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.00	5.01	211	43
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.89 FIP	35	SP	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.58	19.0%	14.2%	17	+0.69	4.89	174	43
Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	14.9%	9.6%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	577	43
Dylan Axelrod R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	31	SP	4.31	13.7%	6.3%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	251	43
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	33	SP	5.00	21.5%	9.0%	4.7%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	42
Kyle Davies R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	42
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	33	SP	3.71	18.7%	4.2%	3.0%	.285	4.61	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.90	3.71	393	42
Chien-Ming Wang R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP	4.26	7.6%	6.1%	1.9%	.354	4.56	13.0%	5.2%	53	+0.30	4.26	183	42
Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP	4.21	18.5%	8.1%	3.0%	.308	5.12	17.4%	8.8%	143	+0.91	2.06	1,046	41
Donovan Hand R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP	4.54	12.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	237	40
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	33	SP	4.51	20.8%	7.7%	4.0%	.262	4.24	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.27	3.34	645	40
Chris Leroux R 2025 · 4.06 FIP	32	SP	4.06	13.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	219	40
Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	33	SP	4.70	20.3%	7.3%	4.3%	.303	4.12	22.5%	16.9%	190	-0.58	2.03	804	40
Daniel McCutchen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	33	SP	4.81	10.8%	5.9%	3.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	287	40
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	33	SP	4.46	18.6%	9.6%	3.1%	.328	3.23	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.23	2.27	577	39