Aaron Nola

PosP

B/TR/R

Born1993-06-04

Age (2026)33

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	187	747	160	36	18	100%	6.0	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	2.5%	2.89	3.48	+3.3
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	187	747	160	36	18	100%	6.0	21.4%	4.8%	16.6%	2.4%	2.89	3.22	+3.9
2016	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	111	483	121	26	10	100%	5.5	25.1%	5.4%	19.7%	1.9%	4.78	2.73	+3.1
2016	23	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	111	483	121	26	10	100%	5.5	25.1%	5.4%	19.7%	2.1%	4.78	2.79	+3.0
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	178	730	194	48	18	100%	6.1	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	2.4%	3.38	3.05	+4.2
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	178	730	194	48	18	100%	6.1	26.6%	6.6%	20.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.04	+4.2
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	212	831	224	55	17	100%	6.4	27.0%	6.6%	20.3%	1.9%	2.37	2.71	+6.0
2018	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	212	831	224	55	17	100%	6.4	27.0%	6.6%	20.3%	2.0%	2.37	2.81	+5.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	34	34	202	852	229	77	27	100%	6.0	26.9%	9.0%	17.8%	3.0%	3.87	3.60	+3.2
2019	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	34	34	202	852	229	77	27	100%	6.0	26.9%	9.0%	17.8%	3.2%	3.87	3.71	+2.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	12	12	71	289	96	21	9	100%	5.9	33.2%	7.3%	26.0%	2.9%	3.28	2.81	+1.9
2020	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	12	12	71	289	96	21	9	100%	5.9	33.2%	7.3%	26.0%	3.1%	3.28	2.93	+1.8
2021	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	181	749	223	38	26	100%	5.6	29.8%	5.1%	24.7%	3.2%	4.63	3.01	+4.3
2021	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	181	749	223	38	26	100%	5.6	29.8%	5.1%	24.7%	3.5%	4.63	3.13	+4.0
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	205	807	235	28	19	100%	6.4	29.1%	3.5%	25.7%	2.2%	3.25	2.29	+7.1
2022	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	205	807	235	28	19	100%	6.4	29.1%	3.5%	25.7%	2.4%	3.25	2.42	+6.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	194	793	202	45	32	100%	6.1	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	3.8%	4.46	3.73	+2.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	194	793	202	45	32	100%	6.1	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	3.8%	4.46	3.73	+2.7
2023	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	194	793	202	45	32	100%	6.1	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	4.0%	4.46	3.86	+2.4
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	3.4%	3.57	3.72	+2.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	3.4%	3.57	3.72	+2.9
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	3.7%	3.57	3.83	+2.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	100%	5.3	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	3.7%	5.57	3.92	+1.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	100%	5.3	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	3.7%	5.57	3.92	+1.3
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	100%	5.3	25.1%	6.8%	18.2%	4.0%	5.57	4.03	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			315	315	1877	7729	2041	486	251	100%	6.0	26.4%	6.3%	20.1%	3.2%	3.90	3.44	+33.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	30	161	690	165	53	34	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.7%	16.2%	4.6%	4.69	4.58	+0.6
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	30	161	690	165	53	34	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.7%	16.2%	4.6%	4.69	4.58	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	PHI	30	30	161	690	165	53	34	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.7%	16.2%	4.9%	4.69	4.76	+0.3
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	PHI	30	30	161	690	165	53	34	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.7%	16.2%	4.9%	4.69	4.76	+0.3
ROS	33	MLB MLE	PHI	2	2	14	60	14	4	2	100%	7.1	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	3.8%	4.06	4.08	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	14	59	14	4	2	100%	7.0	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	4.1%	4.21	4.23	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	175	750	179	57	36	—	—	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	4.8%	4.64	4.54	+0.7
FULL	33	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	175	741	179	57	36	—	—	24.2%	7.7%	16.5%	4.9%	4.65	4.74	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	147	621	142	48	29	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.8%	15.2%	4.6%	4.94	5.07	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	132	557	122	46	28	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	5.0%	5.22	5.40	-0.7
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	24	24	147	621	142	48	31	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.8%	15.2%	5.0%	5.12	5.25	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	22	22	132	557	123	46	30	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	5.3%	5.42	5.60	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		364	364	2170	8966	2320	585	314	100%	6.0	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	3.5%	4.08	3.66	+32.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	826	214	54	29	100%	6.0	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	3.5%	4.08	3.66	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		338	338	2009	8246	2142	511	244	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.2%	19.8%	3.0%	3.79	3.31	+32.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	821	213	51	24	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.2%	19.8%	3.0%	3.79	3.31	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Nola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	23.7%	6.4%	3.5%	—	5.23	22.5%	14.5%	279	+1.01	—	—	—
Carlos Carrasco R 2020 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.24	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.82	2.67	1,455	75
Ian Kennedy R 2018 · 4.61 FIP	33	SP	4.61	20.3%	7.3%	4.2%	.296	4.01	26.7%	20.7%	134	-0.60	2.88	864	73
Lance Lynn R 2020 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	25.9%	7.3%	3.5%	.235	3.99	25.1%	18.6%	462	+0.22	2.85	1,390	69
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.5%	17.0%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	67
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	66
Jake Arrieta R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	18.5%	8.1%	3.3%	.308	5.11	17.4%	8.8%	143	+0.74	2.13	1,046	66
Jordan Zimmermann R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP	4.47	16.3%	4.6%	3.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	731	64
Mike Fiers R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	33	SP	4.80	19.5%	5.0%	4.9%	.264	4.93	16.1%	9.3%	244	+0.13	3.86	918	64
Clay Buchholz R 2018 · 3.61 FIP	33	SP	3.61	19.0%	6.4%	2.4%	.254	5.36	15.4%	9.5%	59	+1.75	2.51	433	63
Corey Kluber R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.360	3.45	21.4%	16.2%	244	-0.18	2.26	1,190	59
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	58
Jason Hammel R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	20.8%	7.7%	3.8%	.262	4.28	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.09	3.54	645	57
Jeff Samardzija R 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SP	5.29	17.0%	10.1%	4.3%	.277	4.85	18.0%	11.9%	198	-0.44	3.62	885	56
Miguel González R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	33	SP	4.54	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.88	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.34	3.72	469	56
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	55
Doug Fister R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	20.1%	8.8%	2.0%	.298	4.77	13.8%	7.2%	66	+1.14	3.63	455	55
Homer Bailey R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	33	SP	4.06	21.4%	7.5%	3.3%	.297	4.37	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.31	4.06	509	53
Marco Estrada R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.9%	3.2%	.231	4.98	18.8%	10.5%	353	+0.94	4.04	710	53
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,160	53
Charlie Morton R 2017 · 3.16 FIP	33	SP	3.16	26.4%	7.9%	2.3%	.284	2.90	29.2%	21.3%	400	-0.26	2.52	1,534	49

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	147	22.9%	7.4%	1.67	4.75
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38

Aaron Nola

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps