Aaron Nola
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1993-06-04
Age (2026)33
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 187 | 747 | 160 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 2.89 | 3.57 | +4.0 |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 187 | 747 | 160 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 4.8% | 16.6% | 2.4% | 2.89 | 3.22 | +4.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 20 | 20 | 111 | 483 | 121 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 5.4% | 19.7% | 2.0% | 4.78 | 2.76 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 20 | 20 | 111 | 483 | 121 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 5.4% | 19.7% | 2.1% | 4.78 | 2.79 | +3.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 178 | 730 | 194 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.09 | +4.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 178 | 730 | 194 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.6% | 6.6% | 20.0% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.04 | +4.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 33 | 212 | 831 | 224 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 6.4 | 27.0% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 2.0% | 2.37 | 2.75 | +6.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 33 | 212 | 831 | 224 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 6.4 | 27.0% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 2.0% | 2.37 | 2.81 | +6.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 34 | 34 | 202 | 852 | 229 | 77 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 9.0% | 17.8% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 3.66 | +4.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 34 | 34 | 202 | 852 | 229 | 77 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 9.0% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 3.87 | 3.71 | +4.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 12 | 12 | 71 | 289 | 96 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 33.2% | 7.3% | 26.0% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 2.87 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 12 | 12 | 71 | 289 | 96 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 33.2% | 7.3% | 26.0% | 3.1% | 3.28 | 2.93 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 181 | 749 | 223 | 38 | 26 | 100% | 5.6 | 29.8% | 5.1% | 24.7% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 3.07 | +4.9 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 181 | 749 | 223 | 38 | 26 | 100% | 5.6 | 29.8% | 5.1% | 24.7% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 3.13 | +4.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 205 | 807 | 235 | 28 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 29.1% | 3.5% | 25.7% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 2.33 | +7.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 205 | 807 | 235 | 28 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 29.1% | 3.5% | 25.7% | 2.4% | 3.25 | 2.42 | +7.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 194 | 793 | 202 | 45 | 32 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 5.7% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 3.81 | +3.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 194 | 793 | 202 | 45 | 32 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 5.7% | 19.8% | 4.0% | 4.46 | 3.86 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 33 | 199 | 820 | 197 | 50 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 6.1% | 17.9% | 3.5% | 3.57 | 3.78 | +3.8 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 33 | 199 | 820 | 197 | 50 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 6.1% | 17.9% | 3.7% | 3.57 | 3.83 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 107 | 455 | 114 | 31 | 18 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.6% | 6.8% | 17.8% | 3.8% | 5.57 | 3.99 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 107 | 455 | 114 | 31 | 18 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.1% | 6.8% | 18.2% | 4.0% | 5.57 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 19 | 19 | 97 | 425 | 102 | 31 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.0% | 7.3% | 16.7% | 4.7% | 5.75 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 65 | 19 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 6.9% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 19 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 6.9% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 162 | 698 | 167 | 50 | 31 | — | — | 24.0% | 7.1% | 16.8% | 4.5% | 5.12 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 162 | 683 | 167 | 50 | 31 | — | — | 24.5% | 7.3% | 17.2% | 4.6% | 5.14 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 143 | 46 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 4.76 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 123 | 44 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 5.05 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 143 | 46 | 28 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.80 | 4.94 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 123 | 44 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 5.10 | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 363 | 363 | 2156 | 8915 | 2309 | 573 | 303 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 6.4% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 3.59 | +45.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 827 | 214 | 53 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 6.4% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 327 | 327 | 1945 | 7981 | 2080 | 489 | 240 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.1% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.33 | +47.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 821 | 214 | 50 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.1% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.33 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Nola (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 23.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | — | 5.06 | 22.5% | 14.9% | 279 | +0.78 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.42 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.25 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 296 | +0.83 | 2.67 | 1,455 | 43 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.58 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .296 | 4.03 | 26.7% | 20.7% | 134 | -0.55 | 2.87 | 864 | 42 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.50 | 19.0% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .254 | 5.36 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 59 | +1.86 | 2.49 | 433 | 42 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 21.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 11.2% | 230 | +0.71 | 3.79 | 360 | 42 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.25 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .262 | 4.26 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 307 | +0.01 | 3.43 | 645 | 42 |
| Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 42 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 41 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 41 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.78 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .307 | 4.32 | 23.6% | 17.0% | 230 | +0.54 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 41 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 41 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.86 | 25.9% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .235 | 4.08 | 25.1% | 18.6% | 462 | +0.22 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 40 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 40 |
| Chris Smith R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.93 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.55 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 285 | +0.62 | 3.93 | 413 | 39 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.43 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.32 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 143 | +0.89 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 38 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 38 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 38 |
| Jordan Zimmermann R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.57 | 16.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 731 | 38 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 38 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.23 | 13.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 337 | 38 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.04 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .231 | 4.96 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 353 | +0.92 | 4.04 | 710 | 38 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 147 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 1.64 | 4.66 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |