Lance McCullers Jr.

Lance McCullers Jr. P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.54

FIP4.72

K%23.4%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD3540

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

FB+1.7 (26%)

CT+1.5 (27%)

CH (15%)

SL (17%)

SI (22%)

CU (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	158	649	177	55	11	93%	5.4	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	1.8%	2.68	2.98	+3.8
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	158	649	177	55	11	93%	5.4	27.3%	8.5%	18.8%	1.7%	2.68	2.81	+4.2
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	89	383	117	46	6	100%	5.6	30.1%	12.5%	17.6%	1.5%	3.03	2.94	+2.2
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	89	383	117	46	6	100%	5.6	30.5%	12.0%	18.5%	1.6%	3.03	2.90	+2.2
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	127	547	135	44	8	100%	5.3	25.8%	7.6%	18.2%	1.6%	4.33	2.77	+3.4
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	127	547	135	44	8	100%	5.3	24.7%	8.0%	16.6%	1.5%	4.33	2.83	+3.3
2018	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	22	128	527	142	50	12	88%	5.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.5%	2.3%	3.86	3.31	+2.5
2018	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	25	22	128	527	142	50	12	88%	5.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.5%	2.3%	3.86	3.27	+2.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	11	11	55	227	56	20	5	100%	5.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.3%	3.93	3.38	+1.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	11	11	55	227	56	20	5	100%	5.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.2%	3.93	3.34	+1.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	166	698	189	76	13	100%	5.7	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	2.0%	3.14	3.30	+3.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	166	698	189	76	13	100%	5.7	27.1%	10.9%	16.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.21	+3.5
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	61	259	67	29	6	100%	5.1	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.6%	3.25	3.92	+0.7
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	61	259	67	29	6	100%	5.1	25.9%	11.2%	14.7%	2.3%	3.25	3.61	+1.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	22.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.55	5.08	-0.2
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	22.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.55	5.08	-0.2
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	23.6%	13.5%	10.1%	3.2%	5.55	4.74	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	148	818	3486	909	358	74	95%	5.2	26.1%	10.3%	15.8%	2.1%	3.85	3.37	+15.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.73	4.65	+0.2
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.73	4.65	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	MIL	3	3	11	46	11	4	0	100%	3.7	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	0.0%	2.45	2.18	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	MIL	10	8	44	195	48	27	7	80%	4.4	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.6%	6.55	4.75	+0.1
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	MIL	10	8	44	195	48	27	7	80%	4.4	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.6%	6.55	4.75	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	23.4%	13.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.72	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	23.4%	13.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	64	279	68	36	8	—	—	24.3%	13.0%	11.3%	3.0%	5.56	4.66	-0.1
FULL	32	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	53	224	68	36	8	—	—	30.3%	16.2%	14.1%	3.7%	6.71	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	149	631	141	90	23	100%	6.0	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	3.7%	5.25	5.43	-0.9
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	574	123	85	23	100%	5.9	21.4%	14.8%	6.6%	4.0%	5.54	5.74	-1.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	149	629	140	90	23	100%	6.0	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	3.7%	5.25	5.43	-0.9
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	136	574	123	85	23	100%	5.9	21.4%	14.8%	6.6%	4.0%	5.54	5.74	-1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	197	1112	4729	1181	538	121	96%	5.4	25.0%	11.4%	13.6%	2.6%	4.25	3.84	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	850	212	97	22	96%	5.4	25.0%	11.4%	13.6%	2.6%	4.25	3.84	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		180	170	912	3879	1013	407	85	94%	5.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.72	3.43	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	851	222	89	19	94%	5.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.72	3.43	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lance McCullers Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.2%	13.8%	3.3%	—	5.58	21.9%	7.3%	285	+0.39	—	—	—
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	200	73
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	72
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	69
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	69
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	68
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	68
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	67
Kris Medlen R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	32	SP	5.20	16.2%	10.0%	4.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	261	66
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	64
Tyson Ross R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	32	SP	5.68	15.4%	11.1%	4.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	449	61
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	61
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	61
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	60
Cesar Carrillo R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	12.8%	9.3%	2.0%	.301	5.76	11.4%	1.2%	103	+1.48	4.14	325	59
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	59
Edwin Jackson R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	32	SP-	5.00	15.7%	10.1%	3.5%	.312	5.18	17.5%	7.7%	369	+0.18	3.77	521	59
Garrett Richards R 2020 · 4.05 FIP	32	SP-	4.05	21.6%	8.0%	3.2%	.280	4.16	18.8%	9.8%	179	+0.11	2.31	577	58
Mitch Atkins R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	31	SP	4.77	14.3%	8.1%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	205	58
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	248	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	149	22.0%	14.3%	1.41	5.25
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47