Lance McCullers Jr.

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MIX3 levels	12	12	61	3.25	3.61	25.9%	11.2%	1.3	K 25.0% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.92
2025	31	MIX3 levels	21	18	73	5.55	4.74	23.6%	13.5%	0.6	K 22.3% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.08
2026	32	MIX2 levels	13	11	55	5.73	4.30	24.5%	12.9%	0.7	K 24.6% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIL	5	5	32	5.06	5.10	23.0%	13.7%	0.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBMIL	5	5	32	5.27	5.41	22.1%	14.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ	35	MLBMIL	4	4	21	5.55	5.74	21.1%	14.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%63

xwOBA vs36

FB Velo10

CompsJuan Delgadillo (age 32) · Chuck Smith (age 31) · Manuel Flores (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA5.06

FIP5.10

K%23.0%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	158	649	177	55	11	93%	5.4	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	1.8%	2.68	2.98	+4.8
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	158	649	177	55	11	93%	5.4	27.3%	8.5%	18.8%	1.7%	2.68	2.81	+5.2
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	89	383	117	46	6	100%	5.6	30.1%	12.5%	17.6%	1.5%	3.03	2.94	+2.8
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	89	383	117	46	6	100%	5.6	30.5%	12.0%	18.5%	1.6%	3.03	2.90	+2.8
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	127	547	135	44	8	100%	5.3	25.8%	7.6%	18.2%	1.6%	4.33	2.77	+4.2
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	127	547	135	44	8	100%	5.3	24.7%	8.0%	16.6%	1.5%	4.33	2.83	+4.1
2018	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	22	128	527	142	50	12	88%	5.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.5%	2.3%	3.86	3.31	+3.3
2018	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	25	22	128	527	142	50	12	88%	5.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.5%	2.3%	3.86	3.27	+3.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	11	11	55	227	56	20	5	100%	5.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.3%	3.93	3.38	+1.4
2020	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	11	11	55	227	56	20	5	100%	5.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.2%	3.93	3.34	+1.4
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	166	698	189	76	13	100%	5.7	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	2.0%	3.14	3.30	+4.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	166	698	189	76	13	100%	5.7	27.1%	10.9%	16.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.21	+4.5
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	61	259	67	29	6	100%	5.1	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.6%	3.25	3.92	+1.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	61	259	67	29	6	100%	5.1	25.9%	11.2%	14.7%	2.3%	3.25	3.61	+1.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	22.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.55	5.08	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	22.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.55	5.08	+0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	23.6%	13.5%	10.1%	3.2%	5.55	4.74	+0.6
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.73	4.65	+0.5
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.73	4.65	+0.5
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.5%	12.9%	11.6%	2.9%	5.73	4.30	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	148	818	3486	909	358	74	95%	5.2	26.1%	10.3%	15.8%	2.1%	3.85	3.37	+20.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIL	5	5	32	135	31	19	4	100%	6.4	23.0%	13.7%	9.3%	3.3%	5.06	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIL	5	5	32	133	29	19	5	100%	6.3	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.27	5.41	-0.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIL	4	4	21	89	19	13	4	100%	5.3	21.1%	14.8%	6.3%	4.0%	5.55	5.74	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	32	135	30	19	5	100%	6.4	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.27	5.41	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIL	4	4	21	89	19	13	4	100%	5.2	21.1%	14.8%	6.3%	4.0%	5.55	5.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	157	871	3708	957	390	82	95%	5.3	25.8%	10.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.94	3.47	+20.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	852	220	90	19	95%	5.3	25.8%	10.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.94	3.47	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		180	170	912	3879	1013	407	85	94%	5.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.72	3.43	+20.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	851	222	89	19	94%	5.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.72	3.43	+4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 11 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.35 (+0.17)K% 23.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.860	20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 11 IPFIP 1.76 → 1.99 (+0.23)K% 29.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.860	25.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.76 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 7 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.21 (+0.85)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.810	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 11 IPFIP 4.59 → 5.34 (+0.75)K% 25.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.880	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.050	13.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.917	×1.100	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 32 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.55 (+0.79)K% 37.2% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.21%	—	×0.810	30.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.100	11.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.059	×1.200	0.88%

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lance McCullers Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.54	21.7%	7.3%	53	+0.44	—	—	—
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	62
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	62
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	59
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	377	59
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	57
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	56
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	55
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	55
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	54
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	54
Mitch Atkins R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	31	SP	4.77	14.3%	8.1%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	215	53
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	52
Cesar Carrillo R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	33	SP	4.97	12.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.320	6.22	11.0%	1.8%	66	+1.25	4.14	336	52
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	52
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	51
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	51
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	51
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	51
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.79	414	51
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	75	25.7%	10.7%	0.88	3.98
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
Kerry Wood ('12)	6.9	115	27.0%	11.4%	0.97	3.67
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.8	107	22.5%	9.1%	0.75	3.74
Matt Young ('83-'93, 8 WAR*)	5.9	119	22.8%*	10.5%*	0.91*	4.53*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*