Lance McCullers Jr.
P
Houston Astros
Age 32
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
ILNot Yet Reported (NYR)
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.55
FIP4.71
K%23.5%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p6627.8%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
FB+1.7 (27%)
CT+1.5 (27%)
CH (14%)
SL (17%)
SI (23%)
CU (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 158 | 649 | 177 | 55 | 11 | 93% | 5.4 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 17.2% | 1.6% | 2.68 | 2.91 | +4.6 |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 158 | 649 | 177 | 55 | 11 | 93% | 5.4 | 27.3% | 8.5% | 18.8% | 1.7% | 2.68 | 2.81 | +4.8 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 89 | 383 | 117 | 46 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 30.1% | 12.5% | 17.6% | 1.3% | 3.03 | 2.88 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 89 | 383 | 117 | 46 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 30.5% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 3.03 | 2.90 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 127 | 547 | 135 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 1.5% | 4.33 | 2.70 | +4.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 127 | 547 | 135 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.7% | 8.0% | 16.6% | 1.5% | 4.33 | 2.83 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 25 | 22 | 128 | 527 | 142 | 50 | 12 | 88% | 5.1 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 3.21 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 25 | 22 | 128 | 527 | 142 | 50 | 12 | 88% | 5.1 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.27 | +3.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 11 | 55 | 227 | 56 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 11 | 55 | 227 | 56 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.93 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 166 | 698 | 189 | 76 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.14 | 3.21 | +4.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 166 | 698 | 189 | 76 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.1% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 1.9% | 3.14 | 3.21 | +4.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 3.25 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.9% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 18 | 73 | 348 | 82 | 47 | 11 | 86% | 3.5 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.55 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 18 | 73 | 348 | 82 | 47 | 11 | 86% | 3.5 | 23.6% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 5.55 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 11 | 50 | 218 | 54 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 5.90 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 115 | 492 | 118 | 63 | 16 | — | — | 24.0% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 104 | 440 | 118 | 63 | 16 | — | — | 26.9% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 5.68 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 25 | 149 | 631 | 141 | 88 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.21 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 123 | 83 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.69 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 141 | 88 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.21 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 123 | 83 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.69 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 210 | 1164 | 4942 | 1232 | 561 | 130 | 97% | 5.4 | 24.9% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 3.87 | +20.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 849 | 212 | 96 | 22 | 97% | 5.4 | 24.9% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 178 | 170 | 907 | 3856 | 1008 | 401 | 80 | 96% | 5.1 | 26.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 3.72 | 3.35 | +21.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 850 | 222 | 88 | 18 | 96% | 5.1 | 26.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 3.72 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lance McCullers Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.53 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 285 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 74 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 72 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 69 |
| Tyler Herron R 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 69 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 69 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 68 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 66 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 66 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 3.9% | .302 | 3.80 | 20.1% | 12.8% | 542 | -1.03 | 3.60 | 1,689 | 66 |
| Kodai Senga R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.01 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .268 | 6.38 | 25.5% | 10.8% | 39 | +2.37 | 3.40 | 330 | 66 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 65 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 64 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 63 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.80 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 449 | 63 |
| Jeremy Hellickson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.93 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 4.1% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 646 | 63 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 60 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.50 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.20 | 22.8% | 16.0% | 394 | -1.30 | 2.78 | 844 | 60 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.60 | 17.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .245 | 4.31 | 20.0% | 12.4% | 194 | -0.29 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 59 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.14 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .315 | 5.02 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.88 | 3.67 | 469 | 59 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.23 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .301 | 5.92 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 103 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 325 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 140 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 1.41 | 5.22 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |