Lance McCullers Jr.
P
Houston Astros
+0.0
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
ERA5.61
FIP5.01
xFIP3.99
SIERA3.98
K%22.6%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%10.1%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2525
CMD3535
K†5555
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p5325.8%
K%
p6224.4%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
FB+1.7 (29%)
CT+1.5 (26%)
CH (13%)
SL (17%)
SI (24%)
CU (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MLB | Houston Astros | 29 | 27 | 158 | 649 | 177 | 55 | 11 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 2.68 | 2.90 | +4.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | MLB | Houston Astros | 16 | 16 | 89 | 383 | 117 | 46 | 6 | 30.1% | 12.5% | 1.4% | 3.03 | 2.91 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 24 | 24 | 127 | 547 | 135 | 44 | 8 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 2.74 | +3.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 25 | 22 | 128 | 527 | 142 | 50 | 12 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.22 | +3.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 11 | 55 | 227 | 56 | 20 | 5 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 3.93 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 29 | 29 | 166 | 698 | 189 | 76 | 13 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.14 | 3.23 | +3.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 12 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 29 | 6 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 3.25 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 21 | 18 | 73 | 348 | 82 | 47 | 11 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 5.55 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 3 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 27.9% | 9.8% | 1.6% | 5.87 | 2.89 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 47 | 195 | 49 | 22 | 5 | 24.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 22.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 22.2% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 21.4% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 170 | 162 | 872 | 3699 | 970 | 380 | 74 | 26.2% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 3.63 | 3.29 | +19.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 848 | 222 | 87 | 17 | 26.2% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 3.63 | 3.29 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lance McCullers Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 22.2% | 12.6% | 3.3% | — | 5.02 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 111 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 82 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 81 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 80 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 79 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.20 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 300 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 78 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 77 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 299 | 77 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .265 | 3.96 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.79 | 2.89 | 227 | 76 |
| Jeff Manship R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 76 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 76 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .243 | 4.44 | 17.6% | 3.6% | 14 | +0.45 | 3.10 | 256 | 76 |
| Tyler Herron R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 75 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.59 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 241 | 75 |
| J.D. Martin R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.85 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.41 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.56 | 4.85 | 289 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.