Nick Pivetta — OGILVIE

Nick Pivetta P San Diego Padres

+1.1 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.2 · 2027

ERA3.80

FIP3.92

xFIP3.08

SIERA2.70

K%27.1%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%20.2%

IP150

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p9036.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.213

FB+2.5 (59%)

SL+1.6 (13%)

CT (10%)

SI (1%)

CU (18%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	14.6%	11.6%	2.7%	3.96	4.82	+0.7
2016	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	18.5%	9.0%	1.9%	3.27	3.72	+2.7
2017	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	24.4%	8.4%	3.0%	5.13	3.74	+2.9
2018	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	4.77	3.50	+3.3
2019	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	23.9%	10.2%	3.3%	4.68	4.20	+1.7
2020	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	23.9%	8.5%	6.2%	6.89	5.53	-0.1
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	26.5%	9.5%	3.7%	4.53	4.10	+2.1
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	22.6%	9.4%	3.4%	4.56	4.27	+2.1
2023	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	31.2%	8.3%	4.3%	4.04	3.90	+2.3
2024	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	28.9%	5.9%	5.0%	4.30	4.13	+2.0
2025	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	26.4%	6.8%	2.7%	2.87	3.22	+4.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	4	4	16	66	24	6	0	36.4%	9.1%	0.0%	4.50	1.18	+0.7
ROS	33	MLB	PHI	54	—	54	228	67	17	7	29.4%	7.3%	3.0%	3.02	3.18	+1.1
2026 Total	33	MLB	PHI	—	—	70	294	91	23	7	30.9%	7.7%	2.3%	3.36	2.73	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	PHI	22	22	124	522	149	39	16	28.6%	7.5%	3.1%	3.59	3.71	+2.2
2028	35	MLB	PHI	20	20	108	457	128	35	15	27.9%	7.7%	3.2%	3.75	3.86	+1.8
2029	36	MLB	PHI	17	17	94	398	108	32	13	27.1%	8.0%	3.3%	3.92	4.03	+1.3
2030	37	MLB	PHI	15	15	81	343	90	28	12	26.3%	8.2%	3.5%	4.09	4.20	+0.9
2031	38	MLB	PHI	13	13	70	294	81	23	11	27.5%	7.7%	3.6%	4.11	4.12	+0.7
2032	39	MLB	PHI	60	—	60	251	67	20	9	26.6%	8.0%	3.7%	4.23	4.30	+0.4
2033	40	MLB	PHI	51	—	51	215	55	18	8	25.8%	8.3%	3.9%	4.39	4.49	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			325	276	1581	6644	1635	572	220	24.6%	8.6%	3.3%	4.23	3.93	+24.6
/ 200 IP	—			41	35	200	840	207	72	28	24.6%	8.6%	3.3%	4.23	3.93	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Pivetta (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	27.0%	6.9%	3.4%	—	3.85	28.0%	20.3%	326	-0.09	—	—	—
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	515	36
Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	31	SP-	3.80	18.0%	5.9%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	380	36
Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	33	SP-	3.74	15.2%	8.0%	1.7%	.262	4.37	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.63	3.74	240	35
Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP-	3.60	19.0%	6.4%	2.4%	.254	5.25	15.4%	9.5%	59	+1.65	2.54	433	35
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	33	SP-	3.15	15.6%	6.0%	1.1%	.277	3.89	17.5%	9.4%	148	+0.74	3.15	485	35
Jared Hughes R 2026 · 2.96 FIP	33	SW	2.96	19.8%	7.0%	1.2%	.248	4.67	18.8%	9.4%	94	+1.71	2.96	358	34
Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	33	SP-	3.00	19.1%	6.2%	1.3%	.333	4.11	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.11	3.00	407	34
Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP-	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	365	34
Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	34
Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	33	SW	3.70	19.9%	4.9%	3.0%	.277	4.48	18.6%	8.6%	16	+0.78	3.01	260	34
Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.07 FIP	33	SP-	5.07	18.7%	9.5%	4.3%	.278	5.31	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.24	3.75	521	34
Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.56 FIP	32	SP-	4.56	15.5%	7.2%	3.4%	.316	4.46	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.10	4.46	143	34
Mitch Lively R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	31	SW	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	158	33
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	33	SW	4.31	21.3%	11.4%	2.9%	.274	4.08	19.7%	8.3%	169	-0.23	2.86	596	33
Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP	32	SW	3.55	16.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.85	3.55	155	33
Joe Blanton R 2027 · 3.32 FIP	34	SP-	3.32	22.4%	4.6%	2.8%	.272	3.79	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.47	3.12	240	33
Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	33	SP-	4.66	13.4%	5.6%	3.6%	.326	5.79	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.13	4.66	195	33
Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP	36	SW	4.12	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.46	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.34	4.12	145	33
Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP	32	SW	3.29	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.73	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.56	2.73	316	33
Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP	32	SW	4.68	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	337	32

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+1.1	$9M	-$5M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+2.2	$18M	+$4M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+1.8	$15M	+$2M
Totals		$41M		$42M	+$1.0M

Options · projected decision
2029	PLAYER OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$18.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	PLAYER OPT	$2027.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$5.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE