Nick Pivetta

P San Diego Padres

Age 34 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	28	27	149	4.30	3.95	29.0%	6.4%	2.6	K 28.9% · BB 5.9% · FIP 4.05
2025	32	MLBSD	31	31	182	2.87	3.39	26.4%	6.8%	4.5
2026	33	MIX3 levels	11	10	43	2.95	2.54	30.8%	5.8%	1.5	K 30.0% · BB 5.7% · FIP 2.06
2027PROJ	34	MLBSD	9	9	52	3.61	3.64	27.2%	6.5%	1.1
2028PROJ	35	MLBSD	13	13	76	3.88	4.02	26.3%	7.1%	1.3
2029PROJ	36	MLBSD	12	12	71	4.03	4.12	27.2%	6.9%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service8.942First FA2028Options5

2027Ext$14M2028Ext$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs86

FB Velo43

Form1.45 ERA (proj 3.61) · K 24.3% (proj 27.2%) · BB 2.7% (proj 6.5%) · last 60d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsOrlando Hernandez (age 34) · Jose Oyervides (age 34) · Josh Lowey (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 86

ERA3.61

FIP3.64

K%27.2%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%20.7%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$40M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p9030.0%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$14M	+1.1	$9M	-$5M
2028	Ext	$14M	+1.3	$10M	-$3M
Totals		$28M		$18M	-$8M

Options · projected decision
2029	PLAYER OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$18.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	PLAYER OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$5.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	96%	5.2	14.6%	11.6%	3.0%	2.7%	3.96	4.83	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	96%	5.2	18.7%	10.3%	8.3%	2.2%	3.96	4.03	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	100%	5.5	18.5%	9.0%	9.4%	1.9%	3.27	3.73	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	100%	5.5	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	2.0%	3.27	3.32	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	100%	5.3	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	3.4%	5.13	3.99	+2.8
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	100%	5.3	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	3.7%	5.13	4.08	+2.6
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	97%	5.0	27.1%	7.3%	19.7%	3.2%	4.77	3.51	+3.8
2018	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	97%	5.0	27.1%	7.3%	19.7%	3.5%	4.77	3.64	+3.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	49%	3.5	23.9%	10.2%	13.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.36	+0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	49%	3.5	25.0%	10.1%	15.0%	3.7%	4.68	4.35	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	40%	3.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	5.8%	6.89	5.32	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	40%	3.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	5.6%	6.89	5.40	-0.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	97%	5.0	26.5%	9.5%	16.9%	3.7%	4.53	4.12	+2.4
2021	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	97%	5.0	26.5%	9.5%	16.9%	3.6%	4.53	4.07	+2.4
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.6%	4.56	4.35	+2.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.32	+2.3
2023	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	4.0%	4.04	3.73	+1.4
2023	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	3.9%	4.04	3.66	+1.5
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	28.9%	5.9%	23.0%	4.8%	4.30	4.05	+2.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	28.9%	5.9%	23.0%	4.8%	4.30	4.05	+2.4
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	29.0%	6.4%	22.6%	4.6%	4.30	3.95	+2.6
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.0%	2.87	3.37	+4.5
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.0%	2.87	3.37	+4.5
2025	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.1%	2.87	3.39	+4.5
2026	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	10	43	172	53	10	4	91%	3.9	30.0%	5.7%	24.3%	1.4%	2.95	2.06	+1.8
2026	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	10	43	172	53	10	4	91%	3.9	30.0%	5.7%	24.3%	1.4%	2.95	2.06	+1.8
2026	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	10	43	172	53	10	4	91%	3.9	30.8%	5.8%	25.0%	2.3%	2.95	2.54	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			262	217	1246	5247	1371	428	199	83%	4.8	26.1%	8.2%	18.0%	3.8%	4.43	4.01	+20.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	SD	9	9	52	220	60	14	7	100%	5.8	27.2%	6.5%	20.7%	3.0%	3.61	3.64	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	76	319	84	23	11	100%	5.8	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.3%	3.83	3.97	+1.3
2029	36	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	71	301	82	21	11	100%	5.9	27.2%	6.9%	20.4%	3.7%	3.98	4.07	+1.1
2030	37	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	62	262	69	20	11	100%	6.2	26.2%	7.5%	18.6%	4.1%	4.28	4.47	+0.7
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	76	321	84	23	11	100%	5.8	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.02	+1.3
2029	36	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	71	300	82	21	11	100%	5.9	27.2%	6.9%	20.4%	3.8%	4.03	4.12	+1.1
2030	37	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	62	262	68	20	11	100%	6.2	26.2%	7.5%	18.6%	4.2%	4.34	4.53	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	252	1454	6129	1605	491	232	85%	4.9	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	3.8%	4.38	3.98	+24.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	843	221	68	32	85%	4.9	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	3.8%	4.38	3.98	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		332	282	1608	6750	1663	576	228	85%	4.8	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	3.4%	4.20	3.95	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	840	207	72	28	85%	4.8	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	3.4%	4.20	3.95	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 41 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.11 (+0.62)K% 34.9% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.94%	—	×0.880	30.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.25%	—	×1.050	13.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.866	×1.100	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 32 IPFIP 1.21 → 1.55 (+0.34)K% 30.1% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.880	26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.63%	—	×1.050	1.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.043	×1.100	0.86%

Result: FIP 1.21 → 1.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAReading Fightin Phils · 124 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.74 (+0.39)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.60%	—	×0.810	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.100	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.273	×1.200	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 25 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.70 (+0.52)K% 26.7% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.73%	—	×0.880	23.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.90%	—	×1.050	10.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.942	×1.100	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Potomac Nationals · 86 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.85 (+0.81)K% 20.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.770	15.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.900	×1.250	1.60%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 43 IPFIP 5.72 → 6.52 (+0.80)K% 15.3% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.27%	—	×0.810	12.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.100	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.94%	÷1.021	×1.200	4.63%

Result: FIP 5.72 → 6.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Pivetta (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.15	26.6%	19.4%	209	+0.51	—	—	—
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	58
Jose Oyervides R 2016 · 3.09 FIP	34	SP	3.09	24.9%	8.2%	1.9%	.318	5.55	17.0%	7.8%	195	+2.46	3.01	407	51
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	49
Hiroki Kuroda R 2009 · 3.54 FIP	34	SP	3.54	17.9%	4.7%	2.5%	.270	3.43	19.1%	14.2%	618	-0.11	2.96	1,319	49
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	34	SP	3.74	21.5%	3.9%	3.6%	.270	4.44	16.9%	11.2%	230	+0.70	3.19	884	42
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	41
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	41
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	38
Merrill Kelly R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	34	SP	3.73	25.9%	9.6%	2.9%	.276	4.36	19.7%	12.0%	420	+0.63	3.60	1,170	37
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	36
Jonathan Castellanos R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	34	SP	3.40	15.2%	7.4%	1.2%	.314	5.04	9.4%	0.3%	174	+1.64	3.40	394	36
Jonathan Albaladejo R 2017 · 3.21 FIP	34	SP	3.21	14.2%	3.3%	1.6%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	173	36
Josh Lindblom R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP-	3.79	22.7%	6.9%	3.2%	.319	5.07	20.8%	12.0%	133	+1.28	1.83	480	35
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.81	16.6%	10.9%	260	+0.49	3.42	933	33
Yoanner Negrin R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	33	SP	3.15	15.6%	6.0%	1.1%	.277	3.87	17.5%	9.4%	148	+0.72	3.15	485	31
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	31
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	31
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	29
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	29
Angel Sánchez R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	11.8%	5.0%	1.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	284	29

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	116	26.2%	8.1%	1.45	4.34
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45