Nick Pivetta — OGILVIE

Nick Pivetta P San Diego Padres

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.4 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9485vR 76

ERA3.13

FIP3.25

K%29.5%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%22.4%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p9036.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.212

FB+2.5 (59%)

SL+1.6 (13%)

CT (10%)

SI (1%)

CU (18%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$6M	+0.8	$3M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$14M	+2.3	$17M	+$5M
2028	Ext	$14M	+1.5	$10M	-$0.8M
Totals		$33M		$31M	+$2M

Options · projected decision
2029	PLAYER OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$18.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	PLAYER OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$5.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	96%	5.2	14.6%	11.6%	3.0%	2.8%	3.96	4.88	—
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	96%	5.2	18.7%	10.3%	8.3%	2.2%	3.96	4.03	—
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	100%	5.5	18.5%	9.0%	9.4%	1.7%	3.27	3.60	—
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	100%	5.5	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	2.0%	3.27	3.32	—
2017	24	MIX	2 levels	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	100%	5.3	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	3.6%	5.13	4.05	+2.6
2017	24	MIX	2 levels	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	100%	5.3	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	3.7%	5.13	4.08	+2.6
2018	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	97%	5.0	27.1%	7.3%	19.7%	3.3%	4.77	3.58	+3.5
2018	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	97%	5.0	27.1%	7.3%	19.7%	3.5%	4.77	3.64	+3.4
2019	26	MIX	2 levels	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	49%	3.5	23.9%	10.2%	13.6%	3.8%	4.68	4.47	+1.5
2019	26	MIX	2 levels	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	49%	3.5	25.0%	10.1%	15.0%	3.7%	4.68	4.35	+1.6
2020	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	40%	3.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	5.6%	6.89	5.21	-0.1
2020	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	40%	3.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	5.6%	6.89	5.40	-0.2
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	97%	5.0	26.5%	9.5%	16.9%	3.6%	4.53	4.04	+2.5
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	97%	5.0	26.5%	9.5%	16.9%	3.6%	4.53	4.07	+2.4
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.28	+2.3
2022	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.32	+2.3
2023	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	3.9%	4.04	3.65	+2.9
2023	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	3.9%	4.04	3.66	+2.9
2024	31	MIX	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	28.9%	5.9%	23.0%	4.7%	4.30	3.96	+2.5
2024	31	MIX	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	29.0%	6.4%	22.6%	4.6%	4.30	3.95	+2.5
2025	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.3%	2.87	3.54	+4.0
2025	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.1%	2.87	3.39	+4.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	4	4	16	66	24	6	0	100%	4.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	4.50	1.18	+0.6
ROS	33	MLB	SD	11	11	65	274	81	20	9	100%	5.9	29.5%	7.1%	22.4%	3.2%	3.13	3.25	+1.1
ROS	33	MLB	SD	11	11	65	274	81	20	8	100%	5.9	29.5%	7.1%	22.4%	3.1%	3.07	3.19	+1.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB	SD	—	—	81	340	105	26	9	—	—	30.9%	7.5%	23.4%	2.6%	3.40	2.84	+2.0
2026 FULL	33	MLB	SD	—	—	81	341	105	26	8	—	—	30.7%	7.5%	23.2%	2.5%	3.35	2.80	+2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	SD	23	23	140	591	165	45	21	100%	6.1	28.0%	7.6%	20.4%	3.5%	3.82	3.99	+2.3
2028	35	MLB	SD	21	21	126	530	143	43	20	100%	6.0	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	3.8%	4.13	4.33	+1.6
2029	36	MLB	SD	19	19	111	470	122	41	20	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	4.2%	4.47	4.70	+0.9
2030	37	MLB	SD	16	16	97	410	102	39	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	4.6%	4.85	5.10	+0.3
2031	38	MLB	SD	14	14	83	352	84	36	18	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.1%	13.6%	5.1%	5.26	5.53	-0.5
2027	34	MLB	SD	23	23	140	591	165	45	20	100%	6.1	28.0%	7.6%	20.4%	3.4%	3.75	3.92	+2.4
2028	35	MLB	SD	21	21	126	532	144	43	20	100%	6.0	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	3.7%	4.06	4.26	+1.7
2029	36	MLB	SD	18	18	111	469	122	41	19	100%	6.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	4.0%	4.39	4.62	+1.0
2030	37	MLB	SD	16	16	97	410	102	39	18	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	4.4%	4.76	5.01	+0.4
2031	38	MLB	SD	14	14	83	350	83	35	17	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.1%	13.6%	4.9%	5.16	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			367	322	1849	7799	2050	649	299	88%	5.0	26.3%	8.3%	18.0%	3.8%	4.38	4.04	+29.4
/ 200 IP	—			40	35	200	844	222	70	32	88%	5.0	26.3%	8.3%	18.0%	3.8%	4.38	4.04	+3.2
Career	—			325	276	1581	6644	1635	572	226	85%	4.9	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	3.4%	4.23	3.98	+26.3
/ 200 IP	—			41	35	200	840	207	72	29	85%	4.9	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	3.4%	4.23	3.98	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Pivetta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	27.2%	6.8%	3.6%	—	4.31	27.1%	18.9%	377	+0.30	—	—	—
Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.05 FIP	33	SP	3.05	26.4%	7.9%	2.1%	.284	2.86	29.2%	21.3%	400	-0.19	2.55	1,534	41
James Shields R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	33	SP	4.36	25.1%	8.8%	4.1%	.292	5.12	17.9%	8.6%	517	+0.76	4.36	720	40
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	33	SP	4.25	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.262	4.26	17.1%	11.3%	307	+0.01	3.43	645	40
Homer Bailey R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	33	SP	3.97	21.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.297	4.49	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.52	3.97	509	39
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	38
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	21.5%	9.0%	4.7%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	469	38
Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	28.1%	6.2%	3.6%	.250	2.99	32.1%	26.4%	643	-0.51	2.24	1,584	38
Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.92 FIP	32	SP-	4.92	22.3%	7.2%	5.1%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	250	37
Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.9%	3.2%	.231	4.96	18.8%	10.5%	353	+0.92	4.04	710	37
Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	33	SP	3.78	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.32	23.6%	17.0%	230	+0.54	2.86	1,092	36
Junior Guerra R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	33	SP	4.14	22.3%	9.0%	3.2%	.309	4.22	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.08	3.02	646	36
Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	33	SP	4.67	19.5%	5.0%	4.7%	.264	4.83	16.1%	9.3%	244	+0.16	3.72	918	35
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	33	SP	3.54	22.0%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.70	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.16	3.54	1,102	35
John Lackey R 2029 · 3.42 FIP	36	SP	3.42	19.5%	5.4%	2.4%	.291	4.21	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.79	3.42	577	34
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	33	SP	3.82	19.0%	4.8%	3.1%	.247	4.30	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.48	3.06	1,275	34
Ervin Santana R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	33	SP	3.66	19.9%	6.8%	2.5%	.282	4.86	16.7%	9.4%	344	+1.20	3.66	720	33
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	21.5%	3.9%	3.7%	.270	4.50	16.9%	11.2%	230	+0.71	3.79	360	33
Zack Greinke R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	33	SP	3.18	26.8%	5.6%	3.0%	.285	3.10	23.6%	19.5%	483	-0.08	2.58	1,517	33
Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	33	SP	4.58	20.3%	7.3%	4.1%	.296	4.03	26.7%	20.7%	134	-0.55	2.87	864	32
Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	17.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.278	4.36	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.27	4.09	262	32

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	110	26.4%	8.4%	1.57	4.33
Triston McKenzie ('24)	4	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Domingo Germán ('24)	6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	6	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	7	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	6	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38