Nick Pivetta — OGILVIE

Nick Pivetta P San Diego Padres

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 81

ERA3.29

FIP3.39

K%28.5%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%21.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p9031.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.242

FB+2.5 (55%)

SL+1.6 (12%)

CT (12%)

SI (1%)

CU (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.6M
2027	Ext	$14M	+1.6	$12M	-$0.5M
2028	Ext	$14M	+1.0	$7M	-$4M
Totals		$29M		$19M	-$5M

Options · projected decision
2029	PLAYER OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$18.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	PLAYER OPT	$13.8M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$5.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	96%	5.2	14.6%	11.6%	3.0%	2.7%	3.96	4.83	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	130	551	103	57	12	96%	5.2	18.7%	10.3%	8.3%	2.2%	3.96	4.03	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	100%	5.5	18.5%	9.0%	9.4%	1.9%	3.27	3.73	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	615	138	51	12	100%	5.5	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	2.0%	3.27	3.32	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	100%	5.3	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	3.4%	5.13	3.99	+1.8
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	707	177	59	26	100%	5.3	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	3.7%	5.13	4.08	+1.6
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	97%	5.0	27.1%	7.3%	19.7%	3.2%	4.77	3.51	+2.8
2018	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	32	164	694	188	51	24	97%	5.0	27.1%	7.3%	19.7%	3.5%	4.77	3.64	+2.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	49%	3.5	23.9%	10.2%	13.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.36	+0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	19	135	587	147	59	22	49%	3.5	25.0%	10.1%	15.0%	3.7%	4.68	4.35	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	40%	3.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	5.8%	6.89	5.32	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	5	2	16	71	17	6	4	40%	3.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	5.6%	6.89	5.40	-0.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	97%	5.0	26.5%	9.5%	16.9%	3.7%	4.53	4.12	+1.4
2021	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	31	30	155	661	175	63	24	97%	5.0	26.5%	9.5%	16.9%	3.6%	4.53	4.07	+1.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.6%	4.56	4.35	+1.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	33	33	180	773	175	73	27	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.32	+1.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	4.0%	4.04	3.73	+1.4
2023	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	4.0%	4.04	3.73	+1.4
2023	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	38	16	143	587	183	49	23	42%	3.8	31.2%	8.3%	22.8%	3.9%	4.04	3.66	+1.5
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	28.9%	5.9%	23.0%	4.8%	4.30	4.05	+1.5
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	28.9%	5.9%	23.0%	4.8%	4.30	4.05	+1.5
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	149	611	177	39	28	96%	5.3	29.0%	6.4%	22.6%	4.6%	4.30	3.95	+1.7
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.0%	2.87	3.37	+3.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.0%	2.87	3.37	+3.4
2025	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	31	31	182	721	190	49	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	3.1%	2.87	3.39	+3.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			259	214	1232	5190	1355	426	197	83%	4.8	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.02	+12.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	8	7	29	115	37	8	2	88%	3.6	31.3%	7.2%	24.1%	0.0%	3.41	1.37	+1.3
YTD	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	8	7	29	115	37	8	2	88%	3.6	31.3%	7.2%	24.1%	0.0%	3.41	1.37	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	A RAW	SD	2	1	4	17	4	1	2	50%	1.9	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	11.8%	7.36	8.32	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	SD	1	1	4	15	7	1	0	100%	4.3	46.7%	6.7%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.00	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	SD	5	5	21	83	26	6	0	100%	4.2	31.3%	7.2%	24.1%	0.0%	3.43	1.37	+1.0
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	SD	5	5	21	83	26	6	0	100%	4.2	31.3%	7.2%	24.1%	0.0%	3.43	1.37	+1.0
ROS	33	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	13	55	16	4	2	100%	6.6	28.5%	6.8%	21.6%	3.3%	3.29	3.39	+0.2
ROS	33	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	13	55	16	4	2	100%	6.5	28.5%	6.8%	21.6%	3.4%	3.34	3.44	+0.2
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	42	170	53	12	4	—	—	31.0%	6.9%	24.1%	2.3%	3.38	2.00	+1.4
FULL	33	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	34	144	53	12	4	—	—	36.6%	8.2%	28.5%	2.7%	4.19	2.53	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SD	23	23	140	591	161	43	19	100%	6.1	27.2%	7.3%	19.9%	3.3%	3.76	3.92	+1.6
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	126	530	139	42	19	100%	6.0	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	3.6%	4.06	4.25	+1.0
2029	36	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	111	470	119	40	19	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.5%	16.8%	4.0%	4.40	4.62	+0.4
2030	37	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	97	410	99	37	18	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.1%	15.0%	4.4%	4.77	5.02	-0.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	SD	23	23	140	591	161	43	20	100%	6.1	27.2%	7.3%	19.9%	3.4%	3.81	3.97	+1.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	21	21	126	532	140	42	20	100%	6.0	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	3.7%	4.11	4.30	+1.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	111	469	118	40	19	100%	6.2	25.2%	8.5%	16.8%	4.1%	4.45	4.67	+0.4
2030	37	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	97	410	99	37	19	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.1%	15.0%	4.5%	4.83	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		341	296	1719	7245	1888	592	276	87%	5.0	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	3.8%	4.39	4.03	+17.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	34	200	843	220	69	32	87%	5.0	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	3.8%	4.39	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		329	279	1594	6693	1647	574	226	85%	4.8	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	3.4%	4.22	3.96	+15.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	840	207	72	28	85%	4.8	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	3.4%	4.22	3.96	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Pivetta (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	27.2%	6.8%	3.5%	—	4.24	26.3%	18.5%	377	+0.29	—	—	—
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	62
Mike Fiers R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	33	SP	4.80	19.5%	5.0%	4.9%	.264	4.93	16.1%	9.3%	244	+0.13	3.86	918	60
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,160	58
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.5%	17.0%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	58
Homer Bailey R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	33	SP	4.06	21.4%	7.5%	3.3%	.297	4.37	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.31	4.06	509	57
Jason Hammel R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	20.8%	7.7%	3.8%	.262	4.28	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.09	3.54	645	55
Ian Kennedy R 2018 · 4.61 FIP	33	SP	4.61	20.3%	7.3%	4.2%	.296	4.01	26.7%	20.7%	134	-0.60	2.88	864	55
Zack Greinke R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	33	SP	3.24	26.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.285	3.25	23.6%	19.5%	483	+0.01	2.56	1,517	54
Charlie Morton R 2017 · 3.16 FIP	33	SP	3.16	26.4%	7.9%	2.3%	.284	2.90	29.2%	21.3%	400	-0.26	2.52	1,534	53
Carlos Carrasco R 2020 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.24	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.82	2.67	1,455	53
Jake Arrieta R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	18.5%	8.1%	3.3%	.308	5.11	17.4%	8.8%	143	+0.74	2.13	1,046	52
Marco Estrada R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.9%	3.2%	.231	4.98	18.8%	10.5%	353	+0.94	4.04	710	52
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	51
Miles Mikolas R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP	3.94	19.0%	4.8%	3.3%	.247	4.44	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.50	3.13	1,296	51
Clay Buchholz R 2018 · 3.61 FIP	33	SP	3.61	19.0%	6.4%	2.4%	.254	5.36	15.4%	9.5%	59	+1.75	2.51	433	50
Jordan Zimmermann R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP	4.47	16.3%	4.6%	3.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	731	49
Aníbal Sánchez R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	22.1%	6.0%	5.5%	.349	3.97	20.8%	13.8%	356	-1.05	3.49	869	49
Justin Verlander R 2016 · 3.41 FIP	33	SP	3.41	28.1%	6.2%	3.5%	.250	3.16	32.1%	26.4%	643	-0.25	2.32	1,584	48
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	46
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	46

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	125	26.2%	7.8%	1.43	4.11
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38