Lucas Giolito
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 32
RHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
MLB
Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.43
FIP4.56
xFIP4.59
SIERA4.65
K%21.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.0%
IP143
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p3319.7%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
CH+2.9 (23%)
SL+1.2 (26%)
CU (3%)
FB-1.1 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 21 | 19 | 117 | 494 | 131 | 37 | 3 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 0.8% | 3.15 | 2.84 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 28 | 26 | 137 | 589 | 127 | 56 | 14 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 3.56 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 174 | 730 | 168 | 71 | 25 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 3.93 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 173 | 775 | 125 | 88 | 27 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 6.13 | 5.04 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 177 | 705 | 228 | 56 | 24 | 32.3% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 3.41 | 3.16 | +4.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 12 | 12 | 72 | 288 | 97 | 28 | 8 | 33.7% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 3.48 | 2.93 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 179 | 720 | 201 | 51 | 27 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.53 | 3.49 | +3.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 30 | 162 | 698 | 177 | 60 | 24 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.04 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 33 | 33 | 184 | 794 | 204 | 71 | 41 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 4.88 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 31 | 31 | 162 | 694 | 138 | 69 | 18 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 4.08 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 137 | 578 | 115 | 54 | 19 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.75 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 105 | 52 | 18 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 95 | 50 | 18 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 85 | 48 | 17 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 278 | 274 | 1537 | 6487 | 1533 | 596 | 207 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.02 | +22.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 78 | 27 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Giolito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.89 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 390 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 55 |
| Elian Leyva R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 54 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 53 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .243 | 4.44 | 17.6% | 3.6% | 14 | +0.45 | 3.10 | 256 | 53 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 53 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 53 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 53 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 53 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 227 | 52 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 52 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 52 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .351 | 5.87 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +1.01 | 4.19 | 166 | 52 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 52 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 51 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.03 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 306 | 51 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 51 |
| Mitch Lively R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.47 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 158 | 51 |
| Tyler Herron R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 51 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.84 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 364 | 51 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 50 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +0.9 | $4M | -$4M |
| Totals | $10M | $5M | -$4M | ||