Lucas Giolito — OGILVIE

Lucas Giolito P San Diego Padres

Age 32 RHP 6'6" / 245 lbs MLB peak 1.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 151 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 107

ERA4.61

FIP4.76

K%17.7%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP152

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—70

STUF6570

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p1013.0%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

CH+2.9 (23%)

SL+1.2 (26%)

CU (3%)

FB-1.1 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	117	494	131	37	3	90%	5.6	20.8%	8.4%	12.3%	0.8%	3.15	2.84	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	117	494	131	37	3	90%	5.6	26.5%	7.5%	19.0%	0.6%	3.15	2.14	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	26	137	589	127	56	14	93%	4.9	18.6%	10.6%	7.9%	2.1%	3.56	4.05	+1.4
2016	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	26	137	589	127	56	14	93%	4.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	2.4%	3.56	3.80	+1.8
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	174	730	168	71	25	100%	5.6	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.3%	3.93	4.44	+0.9
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	174	730	168	71	25	100%	5.6	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.93	4.26	+1.3
2018	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	173	775	125	88	27	100%	5.4	16.1%	11.4%	4.8%	3.4%	6.13	5.06	-0.3
2018	24	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	173	775	125	88	27	100%	5.4	16.1%	11.4%	4.8%	3.5%	6.13	5.21	-0.6
2019	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	177	705	228	56	24	100%	6.1	32.3%	7.9%	24.4%	3.3%	3.41	3.21	+3.7
2019	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	29	29	177	705	228	56	24	100%	6.1	32.3%	7.9%	24.4%	3.4%	3.41	3.24	+3.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	12	12	72	288	97	28	8	100%	6.0	33.7%	9.7%	24.0%	2.7%	3.48	2.99	+1.7
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	12	12	72	288	97	28	8	100%	6.0	33.7%	9.7%	24.0%	2.8%	3.48	3.02	+1.7
2021	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	31	31	179	720	201	51	27	100%	5.8	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	3.7%	3.53	3.66	+2.7
2021	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	31	31	179	720	201	51	27	100%	5.8	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	3.8%	3.53	3.67	+2.7
2022	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	30	30	162	698	177	60	24	100%	5.4	25.4%	8.6%	16.8%	3.4%	4.90	3.90	+1.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	30	30	162	698	177	60	24	100%	5.4	25.4%	8.6%	16.8%	3.4%	4.90	3.95	+1.8
2023	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	184	794	204	71	41	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.9%	16.8%	5.2%	4.88	4.90	-0.0
2023	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	184	794	204	71	41	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.9%	16.8%	5.2%	4.88	4.90	-0.0
2023	29	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	184	794	204	71	41	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.9%	16.8%	5.2%	4.88	4.93	-0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	162	694	138	69	18	100%	5.2	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.8%	3.60	4.15	+1.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	162	694	138	69	18	100%	5.2	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.8%	3.60	4.15	+1.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	162	694	138	69	18	100%	5.2	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	2.6%	3.60	4.12	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	209	1188	5011	1216	457	187	98%	5.6	24.3%	9.1%	15.1%	3.7%	4.32	4.25	+9.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	11	9	47	215	33	29	5	82%	4.2	13.0%	16.7%	-3.6%	2.8%	5.01	5.66	-0.4
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	11	9	47	215	33	29	5	82%	4.2	13.0%	16.7%	-3.6%	2.8%	5.01	5.66	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	A RAW	SD	2	2	7	33	10	4	0	100%	3.5	30.3%	12.1%	18.2%	0.0%	6.43	2.08	—
2026	32	AA RAW	SD	2	2	10	44	5	2	1	100%	5.0	11.4%	4.5%	6.8%	2.3%	3.60	3.96	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	SD	7	5	30	138	18	23	4	71%	4.2	13.0%	16.7%	-3.6%	2.9%	5.16	5.70	-0.3
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	SD	7	5	30	138	18	23	4	71%	4.2	13.0%	16.7%	-3.6%	2.9%	5.16	5.70	-0.3
ROS	32	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.76	—
ROS	32	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.76	—
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	47	215	33	29	5	—	—	15.3%	13.5%	1.9%	2.3%	5.01	5.66	-0.6
FULL	32	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	30	125	33	29	5	—	—	26.3%	23.2%	3.2%	4.0%	7.89	6.00	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SD	23	23	139	588	102	69	20	100%	6.1	17.4%	11.7%	5.7%	3.4%	5.20	5.37	-0.7
2028	34	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	127	535	88	65	20	100%	6.0	16.5%	12.2%	4.3%	3.7%	5.49	5.68	-1.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	SD	23	23	139	587	102	69	20	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.7%	5.7%	3.4%	5.20	5.37	-0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	SD	21	21	127	536	88	65	20	100%	6.0	16.5%	12.2%	4.3%	3.7%	5.49	5.68	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		257	253	1454	6135	1406	591	227	98%	5.7	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.7%	4.51	4.42	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	193	81	31	98%	5.7	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.7%	4.51	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		289	283	1584	6702	1561	632	216	98%	5.5	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.2%	4.17	4.09	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	846	197	80	27	98%	5.5	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.2%	4.17	4.09	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Giolito (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	20.6%	9.1%	3.2%	—	5.52	16.9%	5.0%	266	+0.86	—	—	—
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	77
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	3.86	918	72
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	32	SP	4.10	19.6%	11.1%	2.3%	.315	4.95	21.5%	12.5%	143	+0.85	3.63	469	69
Félix Hernández R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	32	SP	4.87	18.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.278	5.54	17.5%	9.8%	72	+0.67	3.60	682	69
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	469	67
Jake Arrieta R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	32	SP	3.97	19.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.283	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	279	+0.78	2.13	1,046	66
Ian Kennedy R 2017 · 5.63 FIP	32	SP	5.63	20.0%	9.0%	5.6%	.253	4.30	22.7%	15.9%	197	-1.33	2.88	864	65
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	65
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	593	65
Matt Garza R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	15.2%	7.4%	2.3%	.306	4.57	15.7%	7.6%	115	+0.57	4.00	365	64
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	63
Mike Pelfrey R 2016 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP	4.89	10.4%	8.5%	2.9%	.342	5.69	14.5%	3.9%	120	+0.80	3.70	404	63
Aníbal Sánchez R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	32	SP-	4.95	20.2%	7.8%	4.7%	.313	4.15	21.5%	14.8%	424	-0.80	3.49	869	62
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	62
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	61
Ramon Ramirez R 2015 · 3.65 FIP	32	SP	3.65	16.9%	9.7%	1.4%	.310	5.25	9.2%	-4.9%	29	+1.60	3.65	155	61
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,160	61
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	61
Iván Nova R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	32	SP	4.64	14.1%	5.7%	3.7%	.317	6.14	10.2%	0.0%	19	+1.50	4.03	810	61
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	135	18.2%	11.0%	1.33	5.05
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45