Lucas Giolito
P
San Diego Padres
Age 32
RHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
MLB
peak 1.3 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.58
FIP4.72
K%17.7%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%6.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p1013.0%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
CH+2.9 (23%)
SL+1.2 (26%)
CU (3%)
FB-1.1 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 117 | 494 | 131 | 37 | 3 | 90% | 5.6 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 0.8% | 3.15 | 2.86 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 117 | 494 | 131 | 37 | 3 | 90% | 5.6 | 26.5% | 7.5% | 19.0% | 0.6% | 3.15 | 2.14 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 26 | 137 | 589 | 127 | 56 | 14 | 93% | 4.9 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 3.56 | 4.02 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 26 | 137 | 589 | 127 | 56 | 14 | 93% | 4.9 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 3.80 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 174 | 730 | 168 | 71 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.29 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 174 | 730 | 168 | 71 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 3.93 | 4.26 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 173 | 775 | 125 | 88 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 6.13 | 5.02 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 173 | 775 | 125 | 88 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 6.13 | 5.21 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 177 | 705 | 228 | 56 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 32.3% | 7.9% | 24.4% | 3.3% | 3.41 | 3.18 | +4.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 177 | 705 | 228 | 56 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 32.3% | 7.9% | 24.4% | 3.4% | 3.41 | 3.24 | +4.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 12 | 12 | 72 | 288 | 97 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.7% | 9.7% | 24.0% | 2.7% | 3.48 | 2.96 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 12 | 12 | 72 | 288 | 97 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 33.7% | 9.7% | 24.0% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.02 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 179 | 720 | 201 | 51 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 20.8% | 3.6% | 3.53 | 3.63 | +3.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 179 | 720 | 201 | 51 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 20.8% | 3.8% | 3.53 | 3.67 | +3.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 30 | 162 | 698 | 177 | 60 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 3.87 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 30 | 162 | 698 | 177 | 60 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 3.95 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 33 | 33 | 184 | 794 | 204 | 71 | 41 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 5.2% | 4.88 | 4.91 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 33 | 33 | 184 | 794 | 204 | 71 | 41 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 5.2% | 4.88 | 4.93 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 162 | 694 | 138 | 69 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 162 | 694 | 138 | 69 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 4.12 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 11 | 9 | 47 | 215 | 33 | 29 | 5 | 82% | 4.2 | 13.0% | 16.7% | -3.6% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 284 | 50 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 50 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 114 | 499 | 83 | 60 | 14 | — | — | 16.7% | 12.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 97 | 409 | 83 | 60 | 14 | — | — | 20.3% | 14.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 5.59 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 139 | 588 | 102 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.4% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 127 | 535 | 88 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 102 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 88 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 270 | 266 | 1522 | 6418 | 1457 | 622 | 235 | 99% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +17.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 82 | 31 | 99% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 289 | 283 | 1584 | 6702 | 1561 | 632 | 211 | 98% | 5.5 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.06 | +24.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 846 | 197 | 80 | 27 | 98% | 5.5 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Giolito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% | — | 5.49 | 16.9% | 5.0% | 266 | +0.86 | — | — | — |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 63 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 62 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 61 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.46 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.0% | .310 | 5.09 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 155 | 60 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.03 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.89 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 279 | +0.86 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 60 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 60 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 59 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 59 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 59 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.23 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .301 | 5.92 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 103 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 325 | 59 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.70 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.64 | 3.70 | 240 | 58 |
| Kyle Davies R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 58 |
| Michael Nix R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.77 | 12.4% | 8.9% | 1.1% | .310 | 4.43 | 11.9% | 0.3% | 115 | +0.66 | 3.77 | 234 | 58 |
| Nestor Molina R 2024 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 57 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.02 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .273 | 4.18 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.16 | 3.66 | 720 | 57 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.73 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.74 | 14.1% | 6.3% | 168 | +1.01 | 3.73 | 469 | 57 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 56 |
| Jake Peavy R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 56 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.6% | .313 | 4.27 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.48 | 3.56 | 394 | 56 |
| Cory Riordan R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 135 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 1.31 | 5.03 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |