Luis Severino
P
Athletics
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 218 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA4.23
FIP4.03
K%22.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p6024.0%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
SL+0.9 (29%)
CH+0.8 (5%)
SI (24%)
FB-1.3 (45%)
CT-2.7 (20%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 30 | 162 | 651 | 154 | 49 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 1.6% | 2.62 | 3.15 | +4.3 |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 30 | 162 | 651 | 154 | 49 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 1.7% | 2.62 | 2.99 | +4.6 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 24 | 151 | 646 | 146 | 42 | 15 | 67% | 4.2 | 21.2% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 4.52 | 3.43 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 24 | 151 | 646 | 146 | 42 | 15 | 67% | 4.2 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 2.3% | 4.52 | 3.29 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 31 | 193 | 783 | 230 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 29.4% | 6.5% | 22.9% | 2.5% | 2.98 | 2.81 | +5.8 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 31 | 193 | 783 | 230 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 29.4% | 6.5% | 22.9% | 2.7% | 2.98 | 2.92 | +5.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 32 | 191 | 780 | 220 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.2% | 5.9% | 22.3% | 2.3% | 3.39 | 2.71 | +6.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 32 | 191 | 780 | 220 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.2% | 5.9% | 22.3% | 2.4% | 3.39 | 2.81 | +5.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 3.2 | 35.2% | 11.1% | 24.1% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 2.55 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 3.2 | 35.2% | 11.1% | 24.1% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 2.56 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 50% | 2.1 | 37.1% | 6.5% | 30.6% | 1.6% | 2.16 | 1.67 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 50% | 2.1 | 37.1% | 6.5% | 30.6% | 1.6% | 2.16 | 1.84 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 21 | 112 | 445 | 125 | 31 | 15 | 95% | 5.1 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 20.2% | 3.2% | 3.20 | 3.47 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 21 | 112 | 445 | 125 | 31 | 15 | 95% | 5.1 | 28.1% | 7.0% | 21.1% | 3.4% | 3.20 | 3.44 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 20 | 96 | 446 | 85 | 35 | 24 | 95% | 4.6 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 6.47 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 20 | 96 | 446 | 85 | 35 | 24 | 95% | 4.6 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 5.4% | 6.47 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 182 | 761 | 161 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 182 | 761 | 161 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.96 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 29 | 29 | 163 | 705 | 124 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 3.80 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 29 | 29 | 163 | 705 | 124 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 3.76 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 12 | 12 | 63 | 271 | 65 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.16 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 7 | 7 | 42 | 176 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 104 | 447 | 104 | 47 | 14 | — | — | 23.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 104 | 441 | 104 | 47 | 14 | — | — | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 113 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 116 | 491 | 98 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 104 | 441 | 84 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 5.36 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 113 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 98 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 83 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 279 | 263 | 1525 | 6408 | 1472 | 517 | 201 | 94% | 5.5 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 3.91 | +26.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 840 | 193 | 68 | 26 | 94% | 5.5 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 256 | 238 | 1343 | 5604 | 1325 | 410 | 150 | 93% | 5.2 | 23.7% | 7.3% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.50 | +29.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 835 | 197 | 61 | 22 | 93% | 5.2 | 23.7% | 7.3% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Severino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | — | 5.02 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 349 | +0.73 | — | — | — |
| Edinson Volquez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.72 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .286 | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.6% | 282 | +0.61 | 3.72 | 498 | 49 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 44 |
| Kodai Senga R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.01 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .268 | 6.38 | 25.5% | 10.8% | 39 | +2.37 | 3.40 | 330 | 43 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.46 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.0% | .310 | 5.09 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 155 | 43 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.02 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .273 | 4.18 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.16 | 3.66 | 720 | 43 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.03 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.89 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 279 | +0.86 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 43 |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 43 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.73 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.74 | 14.1% | 6.3% | 168 | +1.01 | 3.73 | 469 | 43 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.83 | 19.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .297 | 3.64 | 23.4% | 15.3% | 452 | -0.19 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 43 |
| Kyle Davies R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 42 |
| Cory Riordan R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 42 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 122 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 42 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 42 |
| Nestor Molina R 2024 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 42 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 42 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 41 |
| Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 41 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.63 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 1.9% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 593 | 41 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 41 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.70 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.64 | 3.70 | 240 | 41 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 111 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.31 | 4.81 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |