Luis Severino
P
Athletics
+1.5
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 218 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.5 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.35
xFIP4.80
SIERA5.13
K%19.2%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%11.7%
IP147
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2026
K†5055
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.376
SL+0.9 (29%)
CH+0.8 (6%)
SI (25%)
FB-1.3 (46%)
CT-2.7 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 30 | 162 | 651 | 154 | 49 | 11 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 3.12 | +4.0 |
| 2016 | 22 | MLB | New York Yankees | 36 | 24 | 151 | 646 | 146 | 42 | 15 | 21.2% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 4.52 | 3.26 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 31 | 193 | 783 | 230 | 51 | 21 | 29.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 2.98 | 2.83 | +5.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 32 | 191 | 780 | 220 | 46 | 19 | 28.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 3.39 | 2.71 | +5.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 4 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.77 | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 8 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 23 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.16 | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 22 | 21 | 112 | 445 | 125 | 31 | 15 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 3.20 | 3.52 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 21 | 20 | 96 | 446 | 85 | 35 | 24 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 6.47 | 5.24 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 182 | 761 | 161 | 60 | 23 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 29 | 29 | 163 | 705 | 124 | 49 | 16 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 3.82 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 4 | 4 | 19 | 86 | 24 | 16 | 2 | 27.9% | 18.6% | 2.3% | 5.59 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 107 | 454 | 104 | 44 | 12 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 3.90 | +1.7 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 127 | 540 | 128 | 60 | 14 | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 3.97 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 98 | 43 | 12 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 77 | 36 | 11 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 66 | 28 | 9 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 248 | 230 | 1300 | 5419 | 1284 | 395 | 141 | 23.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.45 | +27.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 198 | 61 | 22 | 23.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.45 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Severino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.46 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 258 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 47 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 46 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 46 |
| Michael Nix R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.82 | 12.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 4.52 | 11.9% | 0.3% | 115 | +0.70 | 3.82 | 234 | 46 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .353 | 3.35 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.54 | 3.27 | 283 | 46 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.84 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 103 | +1.56 | 4.16 | 325 | 46 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 45 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.51 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 219 | 45 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 45 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 45 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.64 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .313 | 4.15 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.51 | 3.41 | 394 | 44 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.30 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.62 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.19 | 450 | 44 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.66 | 12.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | .353 | 3.76 | 10.8% | 4.1% | 172 | +0.10 | 3.61 | 326 | 43 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 43 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.54 | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .328 | 5.54 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 57 | +1.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 43 |
| Bruce Billings R 2023 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 43 |
| Jose Pina R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.65 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 1.6% | .264 | 5.28 | 14.6% | 7.8% | 63 | +1.63 | 3.65 | 424 | 43 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 42 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 275 | 42 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 42 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 9.988 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +1.5 | $12M | -$10M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +1.1 | $9M | -$13M |
| Totals | $45M | $21M | -$24M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2028 | PLAYER OPT | $22.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2029 | CLUB OPT | $2023.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2030 | CLUB OPT | $15.0M / $2.8M buyout | DECLINE |