Luis Severino — OGILVIE

Luis Severino P Athletics

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.7 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 92

ERA4.15

FIP3.95

K%22.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$45M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SL+0.9 (29%)

CH+0.8 (5%)

SI (24%)

FB-1.3 (45%)

CT-2.7 (20%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 9.988 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$22M	+0.3	$1M	-$19M
Totals		$24M		$1M	-$21M

Options · projected decision
2028	PLAYER OPT	$22.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	CLUB OPT	$22.3M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$15.0M / $2.8M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	162	651	154	49	11	100%	5.4	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	1.6%	2.62	3.17	+3.5
2015	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	30	162	651	154	49	11	100%	5.4	23.7%	7.5%	16.1%	1.7%	2.62	2.99	+3.9
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	24	151	646	146	42	15	67%	4.2	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	2.3%	4.52	3.44	+2.7
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	24	151	646	146	42	15	67%	4.2	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	2.3%	4.52	3.29	+3.0
2017	23	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	31	193	783	230	51	21	100%	6.2	29.4%	6.5%	22.9%	2.5%	2.98	2.82	+5.1
2017	23	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	31	31	193	783	230	51	21	100%	6.2	29.4%	6.5%	22.9%	2.7%	2.98	2.92	+4.8
2018	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	191	780	220	46	19	100%	6.0	28.2%	5.9%	22.3%	2.3%	3.39	2.72	+5.3
2018	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	32	32	191	780	220	46	19	100%	6.0	28.2%	5.9%	22.3%	2.4%	3.39	2.81	+5.1
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	13	54	19	6	1	100%	3.2	35.2%	11.1%	24.1%	1.9%	2.77	2.55	+0.4
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	13	54	19	6	1	100%	3.2	35.2%	11.1%	24.1%	1.9%	2.77	2.56	+0.4
2021	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	4	17	62	23	4	1	50%	2.1	37.1%	6.5%	30.6%	1.6%	2.16	1.67	+0.7
2021	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	4	17	62	23	4	1	50%	2.1	37.1%	6.5%	30.6%	1.6%	2.16	1.84	+0.6
2022	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	21	112	445	125	31	15	95%	5.1	27.7%	7.4%	20.2%	3.2%	3.20	3.48	+1.9
2022	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	21	112	445	125	31	15	95%	5.1	28.1%	7.0%	21.1%	3.4%	3.20	3.44	+2.0
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	96	446	85	35	24	95%	4.6	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	5.2%	6.47	5.34	-0.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	96	446	85	35	24	95%	4.6	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	5.2%	6.47	5.34	-0.5
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	96	446	85	35	24	95%	4.6	19.1%	7.8%	11.2%	5.4%	6.47	5.67	-0.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	31	182	761	161	60	23	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.9%	13.3%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+2.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	31	182	761	161	60	23	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.9%	13.3%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+2.0
2024	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	31	31	182	761	161	60	23	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.9%	13.3%	3.0%	3.91	3.96	+2.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Athletics	29	29	163	705	124	49	16	100%	5.6	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	2.3%	4.54	3.77	+2.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	Athletics	29	29	163	705	124	49	16	100%	5.6	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	2.3%	4.54	3.77	+2.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	Athletics	29	29	163	705	124	49	16	100%	5.6	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	2.3%	4.54	3.76	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	197	1135	4759	1138	353	145	92%	5.3	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	3.0%	3.93	3.69	+16.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	12	12	63	271	65	31	9	100%	5.2	24.0%	11.4%	12.5%	3.4%	4.16	4.39	+0.4
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	12	12	63	271	65	31	9	100%	5.2	24.0%	11.4%	12.5%	3.4%	4.16	4.39	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	OAK	12	12	63	271	65	31	9	100%	5.2	24.0%	11.4%	12.5%	3.3%	4.16	4.35	+0.4
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	OAK	12	12	63	271	65	31	9	100%	5.2	24.0%	11.4%	12.5%	3.3%	4.16	4.35	+0.4
ROS	32	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	2	10	2	1	0	100%	2.3	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.15	3.95	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	OAK	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.12	3.92	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	65	281	67	32	9	—	—	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	3.3%	4.16	4.38	+0.2
FULL	32	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	65	275	67	32	9	—	—	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	3.4%	4.16	4.36	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	128	540	113	52	18	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.72	+0.3
2028	34	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	116	491	98	50	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.5%	4.88	5.02	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	128	540	113	52	17	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.68	+0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	116	490	98	49	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		254	238	1381	5800	1351	455	179	94%	5.4	23.3%	7.8%	15.4%	3.1%	4.08	3.82	+17.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	34	200	840	196	66	26	94%	5.4	23.3%	7.8%	15.4%	3.1%	4.08	3.82	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		256	238	1343	5604	1325	410	151	93%	5.2	23.7%	7.3%	16.3%	2.7%	3.79	3.51	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	835	197	61	23	93%	5.2	23.7%	7.3%	16.3%	2.7%	3.79	3.51	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Severino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	19.7%	7.4%	2.8%	—	4.86	20.4%	10.6%	244	+0.58	—	—	—
Jake Arrieta R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	32	SP	3.97	19.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.283	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	279	+0.78	2.13	1,046	62
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	61
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	3.86	918	59
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,160	58
Félix Hernández R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	32	SP	4.87	18.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.278	5.54	17.5%	9.8%	72	+0.67	3.60	682	58
Yu Darvish R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	32	SP	3.98	31.3%	7.5%	4.7%	.258	3.10	28.0%	22.7%	437	-0.88	1.97	1,253	54
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	469	54
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	54
Zack Greinke R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	20.1%	5.7%	3.4%	.292	3.31	24.5%	19.9%	619	-0.69	2.56	1,517	52
Andrew Cashner R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	32	SP-	4.50	17.0%	9.1%	3.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	786	52
Tanner Roark R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	21.9%	6.9%	4.3%	.313	4.76	19.6%	9.9%	94	+0.29	3.13	942	52
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	32	SP	4.10	19.6%	11.1%	2.3%	.315	4.95	21.5%	12.5%	143	+0.85	3.63	469	52
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	593	51
Alex Cobb R 2020 · 4.44 FIP	32	SP	4.44	16.8%	8.0%	3.2%	.272	3.19	22.8%	16.0%	394	-1.25	2.74	844	51
Kyle Gibson R 2020 · 4.73 FIP	32	SP	4.73	19.3%	9.6%	3.7%	.302	3.80	20.1%	12.8%	542	-0.93	3.56	1,689	51
Aníbal Sánchez R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	32	SP-	4.95	20.2%	7.8%	4.7%	.313	4.15	21.5%	14.8%	424	-0.80	3.49	869	50
Edinson Volquez R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	32	SP	3.74	18.2%	8.4%	2.0%	.286	4.34	17.6%	7.6%	282	+0.60	3.74	498	49
Iván Nova R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	32	SP	4.64	14.1%	5.7%	3.7%	.317	6.14	10.2%	0.0%	19	+1.50	4.03	810	49
Jeff Samardzija R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	32	SP	3.62	24.2%	3.7%	3.8%	.299	4.96	17.7%	10.7%	260	+1.34	3.62	885	48
Jordan Zimmermann R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP	4.89	20.0%	4.7%	5.3%	.286	4.47	16.3%	11.7%	112	-0.42	3.57	731	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	124	20.2%	9.0%	1.23	4.67
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97