Chris Sale
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 37
LHP
6'6" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 15.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 4.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6373vR 82
ERA2.63
FIP2.49
K%30.0%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%23.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p7729.5%
K%
p8729.0%
xwOBA vs
p740.289
FB+2.4 (49%)
CH+1.0 (12%)
SL+0.9 (39%)
SI (9%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 209 | 854 | 274 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 6.7 | 32.1% | 4.9% | 27.2% | 2.6% | 3.41 | 2.44 | +7.2 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 209 | 854 | 274 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 6.7 | 32.1% | 4.9% | 27.2% | 2.7% | 3.41 | 2.51 | +7.1 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 227 | 907 | 233 | 43 | 27 | 100% | 7.1 | 25.7% | 4.7% | 20.9% | 2.9% | 3.34 | 3.11 | +6.1 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 227 | 907 | 233 | 43 | 27 | 100% | 7.1 | 25.7% | 4.7% | 20.9% | 3.0% | 3.34 | 3.16 | +5.9 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 214 | 851 | 308 | 43 | 24 | 100% | 6.7 | 36.2% | 5.1% | 31.1% | 2.8% | 2.90 | 2.22 | +8.0 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 214 | 851 | 308 | 43 | 24 | 100% | 6.7 | 36.2% | 5.1% | 31.1% | 2.8% | 2.90 | 2.28 | +7.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 27 | 158 | 617 | 237 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 38.4% | 5.5% | 32.9% | 1.8% | 2.11 | 1.52 | +7.2 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 27 | 158 | 617 | 237 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 38.4% | 5.5% | 32.9% | 1.8% | 2.11 | 1.65 | +6.9 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 25 | 147 | 612 | 218 | 37 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 35.6% | 6.0% | 29.6% | 3.9% | 4.40 | 2.99 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 25 | 147 | 612 | 218 | 37 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 35.6% | 6.0% | 29.6% | 3.9% | 4.40 | 3.01 | +4.1 |
| 2021 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 14 | 14 | 63 | 266 | 87 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 28.4% | 6.0% | 22.4% | 3.2% | 2.59 | 3.24 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 14 | 14 | 63 | 266 | 87 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 32.7% | 6.0% | 26.7% | 2.6% | 2.59 | 2.54 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 6 | 6 | 17 | 75 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 32.0% | 9.3% | 22.7% | 0.0% | 2.65 | 1.58 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 6 | 6 | 17 | 75 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 32.0% | 9.3% | 22.7% | 0.0% | 2.65 | 1.51 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 109 | 450 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 29.4% | 6.8% | 22.6% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 3.40 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 109 | 450 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 30.0% | 6.9% | 23.1% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 3.27 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 29 | 178 | 702 | 225 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 26.5% | 1.3% | 2.38 | 1.80 | +7.5 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 29 | 178 | 702 | 225 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 26.5% | 1.3% | 2.38 | 1.88 | +7.3 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 136 | 554 | 176 | 35 | 11 | 96% | 5.7 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 26.1% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 2.35 | +4.9 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 136 | 554 | 176 | 35 | 11 | 96% | 5.7 | 31.8% | 6.3% | 25.5% | 2.0% | 2.57 | 2.34 | +4.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 17 | 17 | 98 | 403 | 117 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 29.0% | 6.2% | 22.8% | 2.0% | 2.20 | 2.52 | +3.2 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 83 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.0% | 6.2% | 23.8% | 2.1% | 2.63 | 2.49 | +1.7 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 82 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.0% | 6.2% | 23.8% | 2.1% | 2.63 | 2.49 | +1.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 37 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 163 | 679 | 200 | 42 | 14 | — | — | 29.4% | 6.2% | 23.2% | 2.0% | 2.38 | 2.51 | +5.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 37 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 163 | 690 | 200 | 42 | 14 | — | — | 28.9% | 6.1% | 22.9% | 2.0% | 2.38 | 2.52 | +5.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 453 | 132 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.1% | 6.9% | 22.2% | 2.5% | 3.16 | 3.28 | +2.7 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 390 | 109 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 20.4% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.71 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 336 | 97 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.8% | 7.4% | 21.3% | 3.4% | 3.72 | 3.88 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 131 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 29.1% | 6.9% | 22.2% | 2.5% | 3.16 | 3.28 | +2.7 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 109 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 20.4% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.71 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 97 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.8% | 7.4% | 21.3% | 3.4% | 3.72 | 3.88 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 303 | 302 | 1852 | 7544 | 2379 | 438 | 198 | 100% | 6.1 | 31.5% | 5.8% | 25.7% | 2.6% | 3.11 | 2.62 | +60.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 815 | 257 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 31.5% | 5.8% | 25.7% | 2.6% | 3.11 | 2.62 | +6.5 | ||
| Career | — | 259 | 258 | 1556 | 6291 | 2023 | 351 | 160 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.2% | 5.6% | 26.6% | 2.5% | 3.03 | 2.49 | +53.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 809 | 260 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.2% | 5.6% | 26.6% | 2.5% | 3.03 | 2.49 | +6.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Sale (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.75 | 31.9% | 6.1% | 2.2% | — | 3.59 | 28.6% | 21.4% | 279 | +0.84 | — | — | — |
| C.J. Wilson L 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 37 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.56 | 30.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.81 | 26.8% | 19.3% | 230 | +0.25 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 32 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 28 |
| Randy Wolf L 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 26 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 26 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 20 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.24 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.57 | 444 | 17 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 17 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .249 | 4.88 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 171 | +1.28 | 3.42 | 577 | 16 |
| Kameron Loe R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 10 |
| Jeff Francis L 2023 · 2.85 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.85 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 114 | 9 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.07 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.27 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.07 | 199 | 7 |
| Brad Penny R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 2 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 101 | 29.6% | 6.9% | 1.04 | 3.26 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Seunghwan Oh ('18) | 3 | 69 | 27.7% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 2.78 |
| Julio Urías ('23) | 7 | 102 | 24.2% | 6.6% | 1.06 | 3.13 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |