Chris Sale — OGILVIE

Chris Sale P Atlanta Braves

Age 37 LHP 6'6" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 15.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION157 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6169vR 77

ERA2.42

FIP2.28

K%30.7%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%25.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL6565

CMD7070

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p7929.9%

p9030.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.271

FB+2.4 (50%)

CH+1.0 (10%)

SL+0.9 (40%)

SI (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 15.355 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.7M
2027	Ext	$27M	+2.6	$20M	-$5M
2028	Ext	$30M	+1.7	$12M	-$13M
Totals		$58M		$34M	-$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	31	31	209	854	274	42	23	100%	6.7	32.1%	4.9%	27.2%	2.6%	3.41	2.47	+6.7
2015	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	31	31	209	854	274	42	23	100%	6.7	32.1%	4.9%	27.2%	2.7%	3.41	2.51	+6.5
2016	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	227	907	233	43	27	100%	7.1	25.7%	4.7%	20.9%	2.9%	3.34	3.14	+5.0
2016	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	227	907	233	43	27	100%	7.1	25.7%	4.7%	20.9%	3.0%	3.34	3.16	+5.0
2017	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	214	851	308	43	24	100%	6.7	36.2%	5.1%	31.1%	2.9%	2.90	2.27	+7.5
2017	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	214	851	308	43	24	100%	6.7	36.2%	5.1%	31.1%	2.8%	2.90	2.28	+7.5
2018	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	158	617	237	34	11	100%	5.9	38.4%	5.5%	32.9%	1.8%	2.11	1.56	+7.2
2018	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	27	27	158	617	237	34	11	100%	5.9	38.4%	5.5%	32.9%	1.8%	2.11	1.65	+7.0
2019	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	25	147	612	218	37	24	100%	5.9	35.6%	6.0%	29.6%	4.0%	4.40	3.07	+3.4
2019	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	25	25	147	612	218	37	24	100%	5.9	35.6%	6.0%	29.6%	3.9%	4.40	3.01	+3.5
2021	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	63	266	87	16	7	100%	4.5	28.4%	6.0%	22.4%	3.4%	2.59	3.31	+1.2
2021	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	14	63	266	87	16	7	100%	4.5	32.7%	6.0%	26.7%	2.6%	2.59	2.54	+1.9
2022	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	6	6	17	75	24	7	0	100%	2.8	32.0%	9.3%	22.7%	0.0%	2.65	1.58	+0.7
2022	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	6	6	17	75	24	7	0	100%	2.8	32.0%	9.3%	22.7%	0.0%	2.65	1.51	+0.7
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	109	450	135	31	15	100%	5.0	29.4%	6.8%	22.6%	3.6%	4.05	3.47	+1.9
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	109	450	135	31	15	100%	5.0	29.4%	6.8%	22.6%	3.6%	4.05	3.47	+1.9
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	109	450	135	31	15	100%	5.0	30.0%	6.9%	23.1%	3.3%	4.05	3.27	+2.2
2024	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	178	702	225	39	9	100%	6.1	32.1%	5.6%	26.5%	1.3%	2.38	1.80	+7.5
2024	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	178	702	225	39	9	100%	6.1	32.1%	5.6%	26.5%	1.3%	2.38	1.80	+7.5
2024	35	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	29	29	178	702	225	39	9	100%	6.1	32.1%	5.6%	26.5%	1.3%	2.38	1.88	+7.2
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	136	554	176	35	11	96%	5.7	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	2.2%	2.57	2.35	+4.5
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	136	554	176	35	11	96%	5.7	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	2.2%	2.57	2.35	+4.5
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	136	554	176	35	11	96%	5.7	31.8%	6.3%	25.5%	2.0%	2.57	2.34	+4.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			254	253	1566	6313	2032	342	159	100%	6.2	32.2%	5.4%	26.8%	2.5%	3.03	2.48	+49.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	37	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	157	627	190	31	9	100%	6.0	30.3%	4.9%	25.4%	1.4%	2.18	1.96	+6.2
YTD	37	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	157	627	190	31	9	100%	6.0	30.3%	4.9%	25.4%	1.4%	2.18	1.96	+6.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	37	MLB RAW	ATL	26	26	157	627	190	31	9	100%	6.0	30.3%	4.9%	25.4%	1.4%	2.18	1.96	+6.2
SO FAR	37	MLB RAW	ATL	26	26	157	627	190	31	9	100%	6.0	30.3%	4.9%	25.4%	1.4%	2.18	1.96	+6.2
ROS	37	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	14	61	19	3	1	100%	7.2	30.7%	5.3%	25.3%	2.0%	2.42	2.28	+0.5
ROS	37	MLB CTX	ATL	2	2	14	59	18	3	1	100%	7.0	30.7%	5.3%	25.3%	2.0%	2.42	2.28	+0.5
2026 TOT	37	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	171	688	209	34	10	—	—	30.3%	5.0%	25.4%	1.5%	2.20	1.98	+6.7
FULL	37	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	171	724	209	34	10	—	—	28.8%	4.7%	24.1%	1.4%	2.20	2.04	+6.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	107	453	135	27	10	100%	6.0	29.7%	6.0%	23.6%	2.2%	2.84	2.96	+2.6
2028	39	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	92	390	111	26	10	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.8%	21.8%	2.7%	3.17	3.39	+1.7
2029	40	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	80	336	99	22	10	100%	6.1	29.4%	6.7%	22.7%	3.1%	3.40	3.55	+1.3
2027	38	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	107	452	134	27	10	100%	5.9	29.7%	6.0%	23.6%	2.2%	2.84	2.96	+2.6
2028	39	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	92	388	111	26	10	100%	6.1	28.5%	6.8%	21.8%	2.7%	3.17	3.39	+1.7
2029	40	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	80	338	99	22	11	100%	6.2	29.4%	6.7%	22.7%	3.1%	3.40	3.55	+1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		303	302	1860	7553	2395	421	191	100%	6.1	31.7%	5.6%	26.1%	2.5%	3.04	2.52	+57.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	32	200	812	258	45	21	100%	6.1	31.7%	5.6%	26.1%	2.5%	3.04	2.52	+6.2
Career	—	MLE		268	267	1615	6515	2096	357	165	100%	6.0	32.2%	5.5%	26.7%	2.5%	2.99	2.47	+55.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		33	33	200	807	260	44	20	100%	6.0	32.2%	5.5%	26.7%	2.5%	2.99	2.47	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Sale (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.75	31.9%	6.1%	2.2%	—	3.27	29.2%	22.8%	279	+0.52	—	—	—
Rich Hill L 2017 · 3.38 FIP	37	SP	3.38	30.1%	8.7%	3.1%	.253	3.64	26.8%	19.3%	230	+0.26	2.05	1,030	38
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	33
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	24
John Lackey R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	37	SP	3.70	24.1%	7.0%	3.2%	.249	5.05	20.4%	13.6%	171	+1.35	3.51	577	23
Randy Wolf L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	38	SP	3.40	16.6%	7.7%	1.3%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	174	22
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	22
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	15
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	13
Jeff Francis L 2015 · 2.83 FIP	34	SW	2.83	19.1%	4.8%	1.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	7
Kameron Loe R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	35	SP	3.38	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	201	6
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.28	199	4
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	0
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	101	30.0%	6.3%	0.96	3.04
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61