Chris Sale
P
Atlanta Braves
+2.8
WAR
Age 37
LHP
6'6" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 2.8 · 2026
ERA2.89
FIP2.86
xFIP3.70
SIERA3.40
K%31.2%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%24.8%
IP117
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.8peak
2026
K†7070
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p6625.2%
xwOBA vs
p790.284
FB+2.4 (49%)
CH+1.0 (12%)
SL+0.9 (40%)
SI (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 209 | 854 | 274 | 42 | 23 | 32.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 3.41 | 2.38 | +6.9 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 227 | 907 | 233 | 43 | 27 | 25.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.34 | 3.18 | +5.4 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 214 | 851 | 308 | 43 | 24 | 36.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.90 | 2.46 | +6.9 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 27 | 158 | 617 | 237 | 34 | 11 | 38.4% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 2.11 | 1.52 | +6.8 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 25 | 147 | 612 | 218 | 37 | 24 | 35.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.40 | 3.04 | +3.8 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 14 | 14 | 63 | 266 | 87 | 16 | 7 | 28.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.59 | 3.30 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 6 | 17 | 75 | 24 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.65 | — | — |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 22 | 22 | 109 | 450 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 29.4% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.05 | 3.62 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 29 | 178 | 702 | 225 | 39 | 9 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 2.38 | 1.86 | +6.9 |
| 2025 | 36 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 24 | 23 | 136 | 554 | 176 | 35 | 11 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 2.34 | +4.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 4 | 22 | 89 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.27 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 29.3% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 2.76 | 2.86 | +2.0 |
| 2026 Total | 37 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 100 | 420 | 119 | 27 | 13 | 28.3% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.87 | 3.18 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 102 | 20 | 9 | 30.5% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 3.14 | 3.14 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 79 | 17 | 8 | 29.6% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 3.25 | 3.33 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 28.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.41 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 41 | MLB | ATL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 27.9% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 3.59 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 42 | MLB | ATL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 27.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 3.77 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 245 | 1480 | 5977 | 1928 | 332 | 163 | 32.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 3.08 | 2.58 | +45.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 808 | 261 | 45 | 22 | 32.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 3.08 | 2.58 | +6.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Sale (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.86 | 31.4% | 6.4% | 2.2% | — | 3.30 | 29.8% | 23.5% | 192 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 45 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 44 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.65 | 3.59 | 444 | 41 |
| Jeff Francis L 2023 · 2.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 2.81 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 1.3% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 114 | 39 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2023 · 3.65 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.65 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 132 | 34 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2024 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 28 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.21 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 156 | 27 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.06 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.64 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.58 | 3.35 | 199 | 25 |
| Randy Wolf L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.41 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 174 | 23 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.38 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 109 | 21 |
| Manny Parra L 2025 · 2.43 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.43 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 114 | 19 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.55 | 23.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 14.2% | 41 | +1.01 | 1.83 | 407 | 19 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.53 | 30.1% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .253 | 3.61 | 26.8% | 19.3% | 230 | +0.08 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 19 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.92 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .221 | 5.14 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +1.22 | 3.20 | 1,053 | 19 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 1.74 FIP | 37 | SU | 1.74 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 0.0% | .206 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 203 | 18 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.10 | 27.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .300 | 1.99 | 19.4% | 15.2% | 18 | -1.11 | 1.56 | 219 | 17 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.87 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.16 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.29 | 3.50 | 219 | 16 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 16 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 16 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 16 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +2.8 | $22M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.8 | $15M | -$12M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $30M | +1.2 | $10M | -$20M |
| Totals | $77M | $47M | -$30M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$30M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$30M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.