Chris Sale

P Atlanta Braves

Age 38 LHP 6'6" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 16.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	MLBATL	29	29	178	2.38	1.88	32.1%	5.6%	8.4
2025	36	MIX2 levels	24	23	136	2.57	2.34	31.8%	6.3%	5.4	K 32.4% · BB 6.3% · FIP 2.35
2026	37	MLBATL	27	27	163	2.16	2.01	30.9%	4.8%	7.4
2027PROJ	38	MLBATL	18	18	117	2.63	2.54	31.6%	5.3%	4.4
2028PROJ	39	MLBATL	16	16	101	2.84	2.98	30.4%	6.0%	3.1
2029PROJ	40	MLBATL	12	12	80	3.18	3.41	29.3%	6.7%	2.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 21.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 9.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service16.355First FA2028

2027Ext$27M2028Ext$30M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo72

Form2.89 ERA (proj 2.63) · K 31.9% (proj 31.6%) · BB 4.2% (proj 5.3%) · last 60d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsHiroki Kuroda (age 38) · Mauricio Lara (age 38) · Lorenzo Barcelo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6371vR 79

ERA2.63

FIP2.54

K%31.6%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%26.3%

Proj IP117

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p8330.4%

p9030.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.267

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2010

Service 16.355 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$27M	+4.3	$50M	+$23M
2028	Ext	$30M	+3.1	$26M	-$0.6M
Totals		$57M		$76M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2010	21	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	21	0	23	92	32	10	2	0%	1.1	34.8%	10.9%	23.9%	2.1%	1.93	2.71	+0.5
2010	21	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	21	0	23	92	32	10	2	0%	1.1	34.8%	10.9%	23.9%	2.2%	1.93	2.76	+0.5
2011	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	58	0	71	288	79	24	6	0%	1.2	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	2.0%	2.79	2.96	+1.3
2011	22	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	58	0	71	288	79	24	6	0%	1.2	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	2.1%	2.79	2.99	+1.3
2012	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	30	29	192	772	192	46	19	97%	6.4	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	2.4%	3.05	3.08	+5.6
2012	23	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	30	29	192	772	192	46	19	97%	6.4	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	2.5%	3.05	3.11	+5.5
2013	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	30	30	214	866	226	44	23	100%	7.1	26.1%	5.1%	21.0%	2.6%	3.07	2.97	+6.7
2013	24	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	30	30	214	866	226	44	23	100%	7.1	26.1%	5.1%	21.0%	2.7%	3.07	3.00	+6.6
2014	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	26	26	174	685	208	37	13	100%	6.7	30.4%	5.4%	25.0%	1.9%	2.17	2.24	+7.3
2014	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	26	26	174	685	208	37	13	100%	6.7	30.4%	5.4%	25.0%	1.9%	2.17	2.32	+7.1
2015	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	31	31	209	854	274	42	23	100%	6.7	32.1%	4.9%	27.2%	2.6%	3.41	2.47	+8.0
2015	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	31	31	209	854	274	42	23	100%	6.7	32.1%	4.9%	27.2%	2.7%	3.41	2.51	+7.9
2016	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	227	907	233	43	27	100%	7.1	25.7%	4.7%	20.9%	2.9%	3.34	3.14	+6.5
2016	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	227	907	233	43	27	100%	7.1	25.7%	4.7%	20.9%	3.0%	3.34	3.16	+6.4
2017	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	214	851	308	43	24	100%	6.7	36.2%	5.1%	31.1%	2.9%	2.90	2.27	+8.9
2017	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	214	851	308	43	24	100%	6.7	36.2%	5.1%	31.1%	2.8%	2.90	2.28	+8.9
2018	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	158	617	237	34	11	100%	5.9	38.4%	5.5%	32.9%	1.8%	2.11	1.56	+8.2
2018	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	27	27	158	617	237	34	11	100%	5.9	38.4%	5.5%	32.9%	1.8%	2.11	1.65	+8.0
2019	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	25	147	612	218	37	24	100%	5.9	35.6%	6.0%	29.6%	4.0%	4.40	3.07	+4.3
2019	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	25	25	147	612	218	37	24	100%	5.9	35.6%	6.0%	29.6%	3.9%	4.40	3.01	+4.4
2021	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	63	266	87	16	7	100%	4.5	28.4%	6.0%	22.4%	3.4%	2.59	3.31	+1.6
2021	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	14	63	266	87	16	7	100%	4.5	32.7%	6.0%	26.7%	2.6%	2.59	2.54	+2.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	6	6	17	75	24	7	0	100%	2.8	32.0%	9.3%	22.7%	0.0%	2.65	1.58	+0.8
2022	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	6	6	17	75	24	7	0	100%	2.8	32.0%	9.3%	22.7%	0.0%	2.65	1.51	+0.8
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	109	450	135	31	15	100%	5.0	29.4%	6.8%	22.6%	3.6%	4.05	3.47	+2.6
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	109	450	135	31	15	100%	5.0	30.0%	6.9%	23.1%	3.3%	4.05	3.27	+2.9
2024	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	178	702	225	39	9	100%	6.1	32.1%	5.6%	26.5%	1.3%	2.38	1.80	+8.7
2024	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	29	178	702	225	39	9	100%	6.1	32.1%	5.6%	26.5%	1.3%	2.38	1.80	+8.7
2024	35	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	29	29	178	702	225	39	9	100%	6.1	32.1%	5.6%	26.5%	1.3%	2.38	1.88	+8.4
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	136	554	176	35	11	96%	5.7	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	2.2%	2.57	2.35	+5.4
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	136	554	176	35	11	96%	5.7	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	2.2%	2.57	2.35	+5.4
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	136	554	176	35	11	96%	5.7	31.8%	6.3%	25.5%	2.0%	2.57	2.34	+5.4
2026	37	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	27	27	163	648	200	31	10	100%	6.0	30.9%	4.8%	26.1%	1.5%	2.16	1.95	+7.5
2026	37	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	27	27	163	648	200	31	10	100%	6.0	30.9%	4.8%	26.1%	1.5%	2.16	1.95	+7.5
2026	37	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	27	27	163	648	200	31	10	100%	6.0	30.9%	4.8%	26.1%	1.5%	2.16	2.01	+7.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			420	339	2247	9037	2779	503	223	81%	5.3	30.8%	5.6%	25.2%	2.5%	2.95	2.59	+80.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	ATL	18	18	117	494	156	26	10	100%	6.5	31.6%	5.3%	26.3%	1.9%	2.63	2.54	+4.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	101	426	130	26	10	100%	6.3	30.4%	6.0%	24.4%	2.4%	2.84	2.98	+3.1
2029	40	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	80	338	99	23	10	100%	6.7	29.3%	6.7%	22.6%	2.8%	3.18	3.41	+2.0
2028	39	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	101	426	130	26	10	100%	6.3	30.4%	6.0%	24.4%	2.4%	2.84	2.98	+3.1
2029	40	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	80	338	99	23	10	100%	6.7	29.3%	6.7%	22.6%	2.8%	3.18	3.41	+2.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		448	367	2428	9801	3008	551	243	82%	5.4	30.7%	5.6%	25.1%	2.5%	2.95	2.58	+87.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	30	200	807	248	45	20	82%	5.4	30.7%	5.6%	25.1%	2.5%	2.95	2.58	+7.2
Career	—	MLE		434	353	2295	9239	2843	518	228	81%	5.3	30.8%	5.6%	25.2%	2.5%	2.92	2.57	+85.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	31	200	805	248	45	20	81%	5.3	30.8%	5.6%	25.2%	2.5%	2.92	2.57	+7.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 11 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.06 (+0.21)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×0.900	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 6 IPFIP 0.74 → 1.11 (+0.37)K% 40.0% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.860	34.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.008	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.74 → 1.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 10 IPFIP 1.20 → 1.64 (+0.44)K% 37.5% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.880	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.318	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 1.20 → 1.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 7 IPFIP 1.13 → 2.58 (+1.45)K% 50.0% → 40.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.810	40.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.100	3.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.900	×1.200	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.13 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Chris Sale (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	1.9%	—	3.17	29.9%	23.6%	181	+0.63	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	38	SP	3.44	18.2%	5.0%	2.3%	.279	3.39	17.8%	13.5%	199	-0.05	2.96	1,319	19
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	7
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	0
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12.7	141	30.7%	5.8%	0.95	2.94
Pedro Martínez ('09)	14.1	166	27.7%	6.7%	0.76	2.93
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Clayton Kershaw ('25) MVPCY×3AS×10HOF	14.3	159	27.1%	6.3%	0.74	2.53
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Ron Guidry ('75-'88, 47 WAR*)	12.0	199	27.5%*	6.4%*	1.11*	3.56*
Randy Johnson ('88-'09, 100 WAR*)	20.7	188	34.4%*	8.3%*	1.02*	3.14*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Sale (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	1.9%	—	3.17	29.9%	23.6%	181	+0.63	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	38	SP	3.44	18.2%	5.0%	2.3%	.279	3.39	17.8%	13.5%	199	-0.05	2.96	1,319	19
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	7
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	0
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	0

Chris Sale

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps