Sebastian WalcottSS Frisco RoughRiders
Age 20 R/R 6'4" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .279 / .342
PA320
HR6
SB11
K%27
BB%7
ISO125
MLB%12%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -9.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +1.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +3.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +9.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.02.04.00.01.01.72.32.83.33.7+$79M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 67
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT49
scouting grade only
POWER67
scouting grade only
EYE49
scouting grade only
SPEED53
scouting grade only
DEFENSE49
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.0$7M+$7M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.7$12M+$11M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.3$15M+$14M
2030Arb-1$6M+2.8$17M+$13M
2031Arb-2$12M+3.3$18M+$11M
2032Arb-3$19M+3.7$19M+$9M
Totals $39M $87M +$64M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROK2 teams — 215195 25723 151043 126 128202231433 103244 487 196 8 — — — — — —
202317 ROK2 teams — 215187 461347 23643 126 246338471809 225331 3011 353 128 — — — — — —
202418 A+2 teams — 515476 942678 331803 278 197254332586 134296 356 257 55 — — — — — —
202418 A+2 teams — 515456 12134911 531323 278 265346452797 186348 2610 351 127 — — — — — —
202519 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 552503 11617212 411485 3210 231295344639 113301 277 285 76 — — — — — —
202519 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 552474 12119213 701085 3210 255357386743 131303 2013 337 116 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season
202620 MLBTEX — 320292 641326 23862 113 219281339620 120285 277 280 73 -10 +1 -0 +3 +9 0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBTEX 54% 570519 11722414 411515 186 225288364653 139287 267 290 80 -13 +1 -1 +6 +16 1.0
202822 MLBTEX 68% 597543 12624417 441555 185 232296385681 153288 267 301 89 -8 +2 -1 +6 +17 1.7
202923 MLBTEX 73% 615559 13124420 461575 175 234298399697 165290 267 311 97 -2 +1 -1 +7 +17 2.3
203024 MLBTEX 73% 627568 13725423 481586 175 241307421728 180291 258 321 104 +3 +1 -1 +7 +18 2.8
203125 MLBTEX 73% 634574 14125426 491596 165 246312439751 193292 258 330 110 +8 +1 -1 +7 +18 3.3
203226 MLBTEX 73% 639578 14325428 501606 165 247314450764 202292 258 335 115 +11 +1 -1 +7 +18 3.7
203327 MLBTEX 72% 637575 14225428 511606 155 247315450765 203292 258 335 115 +11 +1 -1 +7 +18 3.6
203428 MLBTEX 71% 631569 14025427 511606 144 246315446761 200292 258 334 114 +10 +1 -2 +7 +18 3.5
203529 MLBTEX 69% 621561 13824427 501585 134 246313447761 201291 258 333 113 +9 +1 -2 +7 +18 3.3
203630 MLBTEX 68% 609550 13423426 491575 124 244311442753 198290 268 330 111 +7 +1 -3 +7 +17 3.0
203731 MLBTEX 68% 595537 13023425 481555 103 242310439750 197288 268 326 108 +5 +1 -4 +6 +17 2.6
203832 MLBTEX 67% 576520 12221323 461525 93 235303419722 185285 268 321 104 +2 +1 -4 +6 +16 2.2
203933 MLBTEX 67% 547494 11319321 441474 82 229297407704 178281 278 314 98 -1 +1 -5 +6 +15 1.7
204034 MLBTEX 63% 499452 10116319 401384 62 223292398691 175275 288 305 92 -5 +0 -6 +5 +14 1.0
204135 MLBTEX 58% 443402 8713316 351263 51 216284383667 167269 288 295 84 -8 +1 -6 +5 +13 0.4
202721 MLBTEX 54% 306279 621227 22812 103 222284355639 133288 267 286 77 -8 +1 -0 +3 +9 0.4
202822 MLBTEX 68% 406370 8616312 301053 124 232295389684 157290 267 297 85 -7 +1 -1 +4 +12 1.0
202923 MLBTEX 73% 448407 9718315 341154 124 238303408711 170291 268 307 93 -4 +1 -1 +5 +13 1.4
203024 MLBTEX 73% 458416 10018317 351164 124 240305421726 180293 258 317 101 +0 +1 -1 +5 +13 1.9
203125 MLBTEX 73% 464421 10419319 361164 124 247312442754 195293 258 325 107 +4 +1 -1 +5 +13 2.2
203226 MLBTEX 73% 468424 10619321 371174 124 250316458774 208294 258 331 111 +6 +1 -1 +5 +13 2.5
203327 MLBTEX 72% 457414 10318320 361154 113 249315452767 203294 258 331 111 +6 +1 -1 +5 +13 2.5
203428 MLBTEX 71% 449406 10118320 361144 103 249316456772 207293 258 330 111 +5 +1 -1 +5 +13 2.3
203529 MLBTEX 69% 430388 9717319 351104 93 250319456775 206293 268 328 109 +5 +1 -2 +5 +12 2.1
203630 MLBTEX 68% 416375 9216318 341074 82 245315448763 203292 268 326 108 +4 +1 -2 +4 +12 1.9
203731 MLBTEX 68% 403364 8715217 331053 72 239307431739 192290 268 322 105 +2 +1 -2 +4 +11 1.6
203832 MLBTEX 67% 388351 8314216 311033 62 236304425728 188287 278 317 101 +0 +0 -3 +4 +11 1.3
203933 MLBTEX 67% 368333 7813215 29993 52 234301420722 186283 278 310 95 -2 +0 -3 +4 +10 0.9
204034 MLBTEX 63% 313283 6410212 25862 41 226294403696 177277 278 301 89 -4 +0 -4 +3 +9 0.5
204135 MLBTEX 58% 258234 50819 20732 31 214281372653 158270 288 291 81 -6 +0 -4 +3 +7 0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 60325465 131023138237 473156250 13342 240306426732 186290 268 316 100 +2 +10 -25 +65 +171 22.7
/ 162G— — 650589 14225426 511685 145 241307430737 188291 268 316 100 +0 +1 -3 +7 +18 2.4
Career— — 104429467 220139769369 804281189 27686 232299406705 173289 278 311 96 -44 +21 -38 +112 +296 35.4
/ 162G— — 650589 13725423 501756 175 233299406705 173289 278 311 96 -3 +1 -2 +7 +18 2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 A+Hickory Crawdads — 1613 2100 350 01 154312231543 77250 3119 268 63 -1 -0 — — +0 -0.1
202317 ROKACL Rangers — 199174 441247 20593 125 253340489829 236336 3010 360 133 +8 +0 — — +6 1.4
202418 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 2423 8301 170 10 348375609984 261467 294 427 185 +2 +0 — — +1 0.3
202418 A+Hickory Crawdads — 491433 11331910 521253 268 261344443788 182342 2511 348 124 +13 +2 — — +14 3.0
202519 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 552474 12119213 701085 3210 255357386743 131303 2013 337 116 +10 +2 — — +16 2.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15
career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA
105,50923526241336447+20-1728.728.7
/162664283+2.4-2.13.5pk7: 29
#2Brian Dozierlast yr '19
career totals — 8 seasons, 4,884 PA
84,884192105245326442+20+2427.727.6
/1626642614+2.7+3.23.8pk7: 28
#3Todd Frazierlast yr '20
career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA
104,90921873242319448+18+3527.626.2
/1626642910+2.4+4.73.7pk7: 25
#4Ian Desmondlast yr '19
career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA
115,944181181263315427+30-425.824.9
/1626642020+3.3-0.42.9pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons
106,071234134239303424+61-126.221.7
/1626642615+6.7-0.12.9pk7: 17
#5Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22
career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA
104,23813437256308421+45-1017.017.2
/162664216+7.1-1.52.7pk7: 18
#6Evan Gattislast yr '18
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA
62,6621393248300476+30+2017.017.0
/162664351+7.6+4.94.2pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Sebastian Walcott (OGILVIE) 20 37→49 55→67 53 49 218/279/342 124285 611 27% 7% 73 -0.1 ————————— —————————
●Royce Lewis
2019 · A 		20 47→49 42→60 53→50 44 231/283/337 106284 1017 22% 6% 72 -0.2 205/251/302 97288 815 30% 5% 50 -1.8 261/322/478218301311424%8%123+1.6
●Colby Rasmus
2007 · A 		20 45→55 46→60 54→50 43 223/277/358 134288 1316 27% 6% 76 +0.0 227/293/391 164273 1914 24% 8% 91 +1.1 241/308/45921931428332%8%113+2.0
●Trevor Story
2012 · A 		19 42→49 43→60 54→55 44 208/271/317 109280 1113 29% 7% 63 -0.9 191/252/319 128296 1313 38% 7% 56 -1.3 247/315/451204301242526%8%113+2.3
●Brett Lawrie
2010 · AA 		20 45→55 45→55 47→55 43 227/277/351 125282 1312 24% 6% 73 -0.1 254/304/410 156312 1218 22% 6% 100 +1.7 265/317/429165317132020%6%106+2.0
●Jahmai Jones
2019 · AA 		21 46→53 43→55 55→50 46 225/287/340 115289 1016 25% 7% 75 -0.0 196/256/294 98266 912 28% 7% 50 -1.8 263/358/462199338201826%11%131+2.1
●Luis Robert Jr.
2018 · A 		20 47→57 44→60 53→60 47 224/318/346 122316 1016 30% 9% 91 +1.1 226/282/366 140328 1422 34% 5% 80 +0.4 280/327/492212333281724%5%128+2.7
●Rougned Odor
2014 · AA 		20 48→52 44→60 52→50 40 234/276/356 122284 1018 21% 4% 74 -0.1 250/292/412 162286 1712 19% 4% 96 +1.5 256/296/443186285211018%4%103+2.0
●Gleyber Torres
2017 · A 		20 47→53 42→60 47→50 43 227/283/336 109314 914 29% 7% 72 -0.2 252/314/420 168316 2010 26% 8% 107 +2.2 259/345/39914029417617%11%113+2.9
●Andy Pages
2021 · A 		20 43→53 46→60 46→50 46 214/297/344 130275 149 26% 8% 82 +0.5 219/304/418 199291 256 32% 9% 104 +2.0 270/324/464194313251022%6%121+2.8
✕Jake Marisnick
2012 · A 		21 48→52 45→60 56→55 41 236/290/363 127304 1221 26% 5% 82 +0.5 228/280/351 123291 1120 25% 5% 75 -0.0 226/290/423196302251833%6%96+0.7
✕Hao-Yu Lee
2023 · A 		20 48→47 45→55 48→55 46 233/305/357 125310 1212 27% 8% 87 +0.8 242/305/384 142306 1516 25% 7% 94 +1.3 248/306/416169299181623%6%100+1.2
●Sean Rodríguez
2006 · A 		21 43→49 45→60 49→50 52 213/296/343 130256 1215 22% 10% 80 +0.4 230/299/397 167296 1911 28% 7% 96 +1.5 237/310/439202292251227%7%107+1.7
●Ian Desmond
2008 · AA 		22 42→52 43→60 50→55 40 210/263/320 110276 1017 27% 6% 59 -1.1 245/293/376 131309 1317 24% 6% 86 +0.8 273/325/459186331222124%6%119+3.2
●Evan Carter
2023 · AA 		20 47→53 45→50 55 52 228/311/364 135289 1021 23% 10% 92 +1.2 235/322/388 153305 1521 26% 10% 102 +1.9 232/325/392160298162426%10%101+1.1
●Jackson Chourio
2023 · AA 		19 40→50 49→60 50→55 37 208/257/357 149297 1712 35% 6% 67 -0.5 252/297/423 171319 1923 26% 6% 101 +1.8 273/321/471198320232122%6%120+2.5
●Matt McLain
2022 · A 		22 45→55 44→55 53→55 48 218/295/334 116293 1120 28% 9% 77 +0.1 236/317/422 186323 2122 31% 9% 109 +2.4 231/315/405174310202330%9%102+1.7
●Tyrone Taylor
2013 · A 		19 49→52 43→65 51→55 43 235/284/358 123294 812 23% 6% 78 +0.2 236/278/335 99278 612 17% 4% 69 -0.4 248/305/477229283281223%6%117+1.6
✕Agustín Ramírez
2023 · A 		21 43→45 45→55 51→55 44 215/274/342 127287 1211 29% 7% 70 -0.3 231/293/393 162278 1913 24% 7% 92 +1.2 232/295/411179268221622%7%94+1.3
✕Addison Russell
2014 · A 		20 47→52 48→55 58→50 45 232/302/389 157310 1416 28% 8% 94 +1.3 239/303/395 156305 179 26% 7% 96 +1.5 237/308/39916229418525%8%94+1.1
●Adam Jones
2007 · MLB 		21 48→55 48→60 50 41 241/289/383 143302 1514 25% 5% 87 +0.8 254/304/413 159315 1712 24% 5% 101 +1.8 273/312/463190303251119%4%115+3.2