Ezequiel Tovar — OGILVIE

Ezequiel TovarSS Colorado Rockies

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 192 lbs MLB H +10%K -4% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2028

wRC+†vL 9677vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .282 / .400

PA546

HR15

SB9

K%27

BB%5

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

50→50

SPD

50→50

EYE

36↘20

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$11M	+$6M
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+2.2	$18M	+$10M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.3	$20M	+$8M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+2.2	$19M	+$5M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+2.1	$19M	+$3M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$23M	+1.9	$18M	-$5M
Totals		$78M		$105M	+$27M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	16	ROK	DSL Colorado	158	138	26	3	3	0	14	48	2	16	9	.188	.273	.254	.526	.065	.280	30	9	.230	34	-12	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.6
2021	19	A	3 teams	565	528	128	28	3	13	13	95	9	26	6	.242	.273	.381	.653	.138	.270	17	2	.273	67	-21	+3	+0	+6	+16	0.4
2022	20	AA	3 teams	353	326	85	13	2	13	21	93	5	17	3	.261	.315	.433	.748	.172	.326	26	6	.318	102	+1	+2	-1	+4	+10	1.6
2023	21	MLB	Colorado Rockies	615	581	142	35	4	14	25	166	4	11	5	.244	.280	.391	.671	.146	.317	27	4	.294	83	-12	+0	+15	+7	+17	2.9
2024	22	MLB	Colorado Rockies	695	656	169	46	3	25	23	200	4	6	5	.258	.287	.451	.738	.194	.329	29	3	.314	98	-1	-1	+15	+7	+20	4.0
2025	23	MLB	2 teams	436	404	89	18	4	9	22	112	1	5	3	.220	.262	.351	.614	.131	.280	26	5	.266	62	-19	-0	+4	+5	+12	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	98	93	19	8	0	1	3	27	2	2	0	.204	.245	.323	.567	.118	.277	28	3	.252	51	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	COL	448	421	99	25	3	11	20	122	4	7	1	.235	.276	.387	.664	.152	.302	27	4	.293	82	-9	+1	+5	+5	+13	1.5
TOT	24	MLB	COL	546	514	118	33	3	12	23	149	6	9	1	.230	.271	.375	.646	.146	.299	27	4	.286	77	-14	+1	+5	+6	+15	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB	COL	551	516	123	31	3	15	26	120	4	8	1	.238	.280	.397	.678	.159	.280	22	5	.298	86	-9	+1	+6	+6	+16	2.1
2028	26	MLB	COL	551	515	123	31	3	15	27	119	4	8	1	.239	.282	.398	.680	.159	.280	22	5	.299	87	-8	+1	+6	+6	+16	2.2
2029	27	MLB	COL	546	510	122	31	3	15	27	119	4	8	1	.239	.283	.400	.683	.161	.280	22	5	.299	87	-8	+1	+6	+6	+15	2.1
2030	28	MLB	COL	538	502	118	30	3	14	27	118	4	7	1	.235	.280	.390	.670	.155	.280	22	5	.298	87	-8	+1	+5	+6	+15	2.0
2031	29	MLB	COL	526	490	115	29	3	14	27	117	4	6	0	.235	.280	.392	.672	.157	.279	22	5	.296	85	-9	+1	+5	+6	+15	1.8
2032	30	MLB	COL	514	479	111	28	3	13	26	116	4	5	0	.232	.277	.384	.661	.152	.278	23	5	.293	82	-10	+1	+4	+6	+15	1.5
2033	31	MLB	COL	499	466	107	27	3	12	26	115	4	2	0	.230	.276	.378	.654	.148	.277	23	5	.289	80	-11	+0	+3	+5	+14	1.2
2034	32	MLB	COL	480	449	101	26	2	11	24	113	4	0	0	.225	.270	.365	.636	.140	.275	24	5	.285	76	-13	+0	+2	+5	+14	0.8
2035	33	MLB	COL	450	421	93	24	2	10	23	109	3	0	0	.221	.266	.359	.625	.138	.273	24	5	.279	72	-14	+0	+1	+5	+13	0.4
2036	34	MLB	COL	404	378	83	21	2	9	20	101	3	0	0	.220	.264	.357	.621	.138	.271	25	5	.272	66	-15	+0	-0	+4	+11	0.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8329	7780	1834	446	49	213	391	1983	67	132	36	.236	.278	.388	.666	.152	.288	24	5	.291	81	-179	+12	+77	+89	+236	24.0
/ 162G	—			650	607	144	35	4	17	31	155	5	10	3	.237	.280	.392	.672	.155	.289	24	5	.291	81	-14	+1	+6	+7	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	16	ROK	DSL Colorado	158	130	34	4	4	0	22	33	2	16	9	.262	.377	.354	.730	.092	.340	21	14	.329	110	+2	-0	—	—	+4	0.6
2021	19	A+	Spokane Indians	143	134	32	9	0	4	3	19	2	3	2	.239	.266	.396	.662	.157	.252	13	2	.284	76	-4	-0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2021	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	326	298	92	21	3	11	14	38	5	21	4	.309	.350	.510	.860	.201	.320	12	4	.367	139	+14	+3	—	—	+9	2.7
2021	19	INTL	Salt River Rafters	96	87	14	2	0	3	5	20	2	2	0	.161	.223	.287	.511	.126	.167	21	5	.228	33	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2022	20	MLB	Colorado Rockies	35	33	7	1	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	.212	.257	.333	.590	.121	.261	26	6	.265	61	-2	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.3
2022	20	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	23	21	7	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	.333	.391	.476	.867	.143	.333	9	9	.387	154	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	20	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	295	264	84	15	3	13	25	64	5	17	3	.318	.388	.545	.933	.227	.378	22	8	.408	170	+23	+2	—	—	+8	3.5
2023	21	MLB	Colorado Rockies	615	581	147	37	4	15	25	166	4	11	5	.253	.289	.408	.696	.155	.328	27	4	.306	92	-6	+0	+15	+7	+17	3.5
2024	22	MLB	Colorado Rockies	695	655	176	45	4	26	23	200	4	6	5	.269	.297	.469	.766	.200	.344	29	3	.329	110	+8	-1	+15	+7	+20	5.0
2025	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	390	360	91	18	4	9	21	98	1	5	3	.253	.296	.400	.696	.147	.322	25	5	.303	90	-5	-0	+4	+5	+11	1.6
2025	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	46	43	7	2	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	.163	.200	.209	.409	.047	.206	22	4	.185	-1	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1735	1629	421	101	12	51	71	473	9	22	13	.258	.293	.429	.722	.171	.331	27	4	.314	98	-4	-1	+34	+22	+49	10.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ezequiel Tovar (OGILVIE)	24	45	50	50	20	.234/.274/.386	.152	.279	14	8	22%	4%	82	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joey Bart 2021 · MLB	24	45	49→50	46→40	37	.229/.276/.378	.149	.309	16	6	31%	5%	80	+0.4	.226/.289/.359	.133	.332	15	4	35%	6%	81	+0.4	.234/.323/.349	.115	.320	13	1	28%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2022 · AAA	24	44	51→55	46→45	37	.231/.266/.389	.158	.274	18	5	24%	3%	79	+0.3	.225/.268/.384	.159	.265	21	3	24%	4%	79	+0.3	.217/.266/.366	.149	.249	21	1	22%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Alan Espinoza 2015 · AAA	24	47	45→55	49→45	43	.235/.283/.354	.119	.286	13	9	23%	5%	76	+0.1	.231/.277/.389	.158	.269	19	6	22%	5%	84	+0.6	.255/.294/.411	.157	.288	19	3	19%	4%	94	+0.7
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2006 · MLB	24	43	49→50	48→50	42	.221/.281/.362	.142	.267	17	7	24%	6%	79	+0.3	.219/.266/.334	.115	.277	13	4	25%	5%	65	-0.7	.218/.272/.349	.131	.288	14	0	28%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Michael Almanzar 2015 · AAA	24	47→50	46→50	49→45	41	.236/.283/.366	.130	.292	14	9	24%	5%	80	+0.4	.208/.247/.307	.099	.267	10	4	25%	4%	49	-1.8	.199/.234/.292	.092	.257	9	1	26%	3%	37	-2.0
✕Yairo Muñoz 2019 · MLB	24	49→54	46→50	47→55	42	.243/.286/.374	.131	.297	14	13	24%	5%	83	+0.6	.260/.301/.384	.124	.316	12	17	21%	5%	92	+1.2	.269/.296/.376	.106	.319	10	23	19%	3%	83	+0.3
✕José Barrero 2022 · MLB	24	46→47	48→50	51→55	39	.232/.289/.373	.141	.304	15	15	28%	5%	85	+0.7	.198/.256/.334	.136	.297	16	17	37%	5%	61	-1.0	.186/.254/.339	.153	.266	19	24	36%	6%	60	-0.6
●Luis Campusano 2023 · MLB	24	45→55	47→50	48→30	43	.227/.280/.358	.132	.280	16	3	25%	6%	77	+0.1	.250/.305/.398	.148	.288	19	3	20%	7%	98	+1.6	.261/.327/.424	.162	.295	21	1	19%	8%	110	+1.4
✕Brendan Rodgers 2021 · MLB	24	46→54	47→50	49→45	40	.231/.280/.366	.135	.290	15	8	26%	5%	79	+0.3	.251/.303/.386	.135	.300	14	2	20%	6%	93	+1.3	.253/.308/.383	.131	.298	13	0	19%	6%	93	+0.8
✕Max Stassi 2015 · MLB	24	43	48→55	46→40	37	.220/.264/.358	.138	.290	16	4	30%	4%	70	-0.3	.202/.255/.326	.124	.279	15	4	32%	6%	58	-1.2	.208/.295/.359	.151	.271	20	0	30%	10%	81	+0.2
✕Jimmy Govern 2022 · AAA	25	45	48→50	49→45	44	.231/.286/.379	.148	.271	16	8	22%	6%	85	+0.7	.205/.252/.325	.120	.258	12	8	25%	5%	56	-1.3	.182/.230/.290	.108	.229	11	6	26%	4%	34	-1.1
✕Luke Hughes 2009 · AAA	24	49→52	47→55	50→45	41	.241/.290/.377	.136	.312	15	7	27%	6%	85	+0.7	.229/.283/.376	.147	.288	15	7	25%	6%	83	+0.6	.205/.268/.334	.128	.262	13	6	26%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Brian Anderson 2006 · MLB	24	48	49→50	47→45	40	.240/.286/.385	.145	.310	17	6	28%	6%	86	+0.8	.230/.283/.374	.144	.288	16	8	25%	6%	82	+0.5	.220/.279/.369	.149	.274	18	8	26%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Ezequiel Duran 2023 · MLB	24	44→54	52→55	49→50	38	.228/.273/.400	.173	.300	20	15	31%	5%	85	+0.7	.245/.289/.388	.143	.319	15	14	27%	5%	88	+0.9	.250/.293/.373	.123	.323	12	16	25%	5%	83	+0.3
✕Joel Guzman 2009 · MLB	24	43→48	49→55	46→45	37	.224/.255/.367	.143	.281	18	7	28%	4%	69	-0.4	.233/.274/.387	.154	.288	20	4	26%	5%	82	+0.5	.239/.283/.382	.143	.292	19	2	25%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Bryan Lavastida 2023 · MLB	24	43→44	45	49→55	44	.216/.280/.340	.124	.282	12	13	27%	7%	72	-0.2	.218/.287/.340	.122	.280	13	20	25%	7%	76	+0.0	.220/.293/.341	.120	.280	13	27	25%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Diego Castillo 2022 · AAA	24	45→55	48→50	47→50	47	.229/.281/.371	.142	.250	16	10	17%	6%	81	+0.4	.233/.297/.365	.132	.280	14	9	21%	8%	86	+0.8	.238/.316/.330	.093	.291	7	10	19%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	46→53	51→55	52→50	42	.236/.287/.404	.168	.294	19	16	26%	6%	92	+1.2	.207/.259/.344	.137	.279	15	12	30%	5%	65	-0.7	.225/.267/.399	.174	.293	23	8	31%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Cheslor Cuthbert 2017 · MLB	24	50→54	46→50	46→45	46	.247/.293/.379	.131	.285	14	6	19%	6%	87	+0.8	.242/.293/.383	.141	.287	16	4	21%	6%	89	+0.9	.230/.283/.368	.138	.277	17	1	23%	6%	78	+0.1
●Jamie Westbrook 2019 · AAA	24	47→52	46→55	45	41	.238/.273/.368	.130	.268	14	6	18%	4%	76	+0.0	.240/.290/.389	.149	.276	18	4	20%	5%	89	+1.0	.245/.316/.386	.141	.288	15	4	20%	8%	96	+1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)