Jesús Bastidas

SS Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 R/R 5'8" / 188 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2079MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAAHOU	606	.242/.339/.448	25	15	74	—	.197/.276/.359
2025	26	AAA/INTL2 orgs	673	.277/.363/.461	19	14	81	—	.207/.274/.331
2026	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	197	.230/.286/.376	5	6	51	—	.176/.215/.296
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBMIA	11	.200/.263/.326	0	0	72	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	29	MLBMIA	41	.199/.263/.324	1	1	71	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed92

Max EV49

Z-Con%39

Whiff%34

K%30

BB%11

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAdam Engel (age 28) · Jake Hager (age 28) · Brandon Barnes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .263 / .326

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP264

ISO144

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	261	235	58	9	1	1	19	36	4	10	7	247	314	306	620	60	285	14	7	283	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	Pulaski Yankees	—	164	148	29	4	0	0	9	27	5	4	2	196	265	223	488	27	240	16	5	230	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	110	90	25	6	0	5	14	25	4	3	2	278	398	511	909	233	323	23	13	395	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	103	87	19	0	0	4	12	28	4	5	1	218	340	356	696	138	273	27	12	322	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	449	396	95	18	1	18	38	115	12	11	7	240	325	427	752	187	289	26	8	334	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	384	340	86	13	2	12	29	96	12	11	4	253	333	409	742	156	315	25	8	332	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	71	57	13	3	0	3	12	12	2	1	1	228	380	439	819	211	238	17	17	370	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	606	525	127	31	1	25	54	140	23	15	3	242	339	448	786	206	280	23	9	349	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	577	500	131	37	2	16	54	138	17	14	2	262	353	440	793	178	330	24	9	352	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	96	84	31	9	0	3	2	12	6	0	1	369	424	583	1.007	214	384	12	2	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	154	139	30	7	1	5	7	41	3	5	0	216	268	388	657	173	258	27	5	282	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	43	39	11	2	0	0	3	7	1	1	0	282	349	333	682	51	344	16	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	261	241	40	6	1	0	13	44	4	10	7	166	221	199	420	33	192	17	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	—	164	151	24	3	0	0	6	38	5	4	2	159	216	179	395	20	206	23	4	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	110	94	24	6	0	4	10	30	4	3	2	255	352	447	799	191	313	27	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	103	91	16	0	0	3	8	38	4	5	1	176	272	275	547	99	257	37	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	449	407	82	15	1	13	27	141	12	11	7	201	271	339	610	138	264	31	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	384	350	75	12	2	8	19	116	12	11	4	214	278	329	607	114	287	30	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	71	60	12	3	0	2	9	15	2	1	1	200	324	350	674	150	212	21	13	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	606	543	107	26	1	20	36	167	23	15	3	197	276	359	635	162	238	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	577	523	108	25	2	12	32	170	17	14	2	207	274	331	605	124	275	29	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	154	142	25	6	1	3	4	49	3	5	0	176	215	296	511	120	220	32	3	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	261	241	40	6	1	0	13	44	4	10	7	166	221	199	420	33	201	17	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	—	261	235	58	9	1	1	19	36	4	10	7	247	314	306	620	60	285	14	7	283	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	—	164	151	24	3	0	0	6	38	5	4	2	159	216	179	395	20	212	23	4	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	—	164	148	29	4	0	0	9	27	5	4	2	196	265	223	488	27	240	16	5	230	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	213	185	40	6	0	7	18	68	8	8	3	216	313	362	675	146	295	32	8	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	213	177	44	6	0	9	26	53	8	8	3	249	370	435	805	186	299	25	12	360	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	449	407	82	15	1	13	27	141	12	11	7	201	271	339	610	138	270	31	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	—	449	396	95	18	1	18	38	115	12	11	7	240	325	427	752	187	289	26	8	334	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	455	411	88	15	2	11	27	130	14	12	5	214	285	341	626	127	282	29	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	455	397	99	16	2	15	41	108	14	12	5	249	341	413	754	164	303	24	9	338	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	606	543	107	26	1	20	36	167	23	15	3	197	276	359	635	162	242	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	606	525	127	31	1	25	54	140	23	15	3	242	339	448	786	206	280	23	9	349	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	673	603	126	29	2	14	38	198	23	14	3	209	282	333	615	124	281	29	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	673	584	162	46	2	19	56	150	23	14	3	277	363	461	824	183	339	22	8	362	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	183	31	7	1	4	5	63	4	6	0	169	208	284	492	115	225	32	3	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	197	178	41	9	1	5	10	48	4	6	0	230	286	376	663	146	279	24	5	289	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	261	242	40	6	1	0	13	44	4	10	7	165	221	198	419	33	192	17	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	—	164	152	24	3	0	0	6	38	5	4	2	158	216	178	394	20	206	23	4	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	213	185	40	6	0	7	18	68	8	8	3	216	313	362	675	146	286	32	8	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	449	407	82	15	1	13	27	141	12	11	7	201	271	339	610	138	264	31	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	455	411	88	15	2	11	27	130	14	12	5	214	285	341	626	127	275	29	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	606	542	107	26	1	20	36	167	23	15	3	197	276	360	636	162	238	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	673	607	126	29	2	14	38	198	23	14	3	208	282	331	613	124	275	29	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	186	31	7	1	4	5	63	4	6	0	167	208	280	488	113	220	32	3	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	606	542	107	26	1	20	36	167	23	15	3	197	276	360	636	162	238	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	673	607	126	29	2	14	38	198	23	14	3	208	282	331	613	124	275	29	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	186	31	7	1	4	5	63	4	6	0	167	208	280	488	113	220	32	3	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	10%	204	187	39	9	1	5	10	60	5	4	1	207	270	342	611	135	274	29	5	274	72	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	10%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	263	326	588	126	264	27	9	265	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27%	151	138	29	6	1	4	8	44	4	3	0	207	269	339	609	132	274	29	5	273	71	-5	+1	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	27%	41	38	8	2	0	1	2	12	1	1	0	199	263	324	586	124	264	29	5	264	71	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	41	38	8	2	0	1	2	12	1	1	0	211	268	342	610	132	280	29	5	264	61	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	127	32	0	16	32	190	16	16	0	211	269	344	613	133	280	29	5	264	61	-22	+3	-6	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3276	2959	588	118	9	76	184	925	100	85	30	199	269	322	591	123	258	28	6	259	61	-9	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	116	23	2	15	37	184	20	17	6	198	269	320	589	123	257	28	6	259	61	-22	+3	-4	+7	+14	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 154 PAwOBA .279 → .225 (−54)K% 26.6% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.62%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.90%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	2.67%
HBP% /PA	1.95%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.82%
Singles /BIP	17.35%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.966	×0.992	15.46%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.966	×0.992	5.68%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.966	×0.992	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .279 → .225; ISO .173 → .128; BABIP .258 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 577 PAwOBA .344 → .266 (−78)K% 23.9% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.92%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.19%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.58%
HBP% /PA	2.95%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.78%
Singles /BIP	20.99%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.954	×1.003	19.30%
Doubles /BIP	10.22%	÷1.162	×0.830	×0.954	×1.003	6.99%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.954	×1.003	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	4.42%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .344 → .266; ISO .178 → .128; BABIP .330 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 606 PAwOBA .341 → .277 (−63)K% 23.1% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.10%	÷1.006	×1.200	—	—	27.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.58%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.90%
HBP% /PA	3.80%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	3.63%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.035	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	15.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷0.953	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	6.78%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	6.49%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×1.018	5.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .341 → .277; ISO .206 → .165; BABIP .280 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 384 PAwOBA .324 → .270 (−55)K% 25.0% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	30.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.29%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.91%
HBP% /PA	3.12%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	3.03%
Singles /BIP	24.18%	÷1.029	×0.930	×0.987	×1.033	22.27%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷0.903	×0.830	×0.987	×1.033	4.99%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.048	×0.970	×0.987	×1.033	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	4.92%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .324 → .270; ISO .156 → .119; BABIP .315 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 71 PAwOBA .361 → .295 (−66)K% 16.9% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.90%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.90%	÷0.973	×0.700	—	×0.998	12.14%
HBP% /PA	2.82%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	2.39%
Singles /BIP	15.56%	÷0.987	×0.970	×0.950	×0.998	14.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.958	×0.860	×0.950	×0.998	5.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.033	×0.780	—	×0.998	5.02%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .295; ISO .211 → .168; BABIP .238 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 449 PAwOBA .327 → .268 (−60)K% 25.6% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.61%	÷0.998	×1.220	—	—	31.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.46%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.09%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	2.30%
Singles /BIP	20.64%	÷0.983	×0.970	×0.950	×1.012	19.58%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷0.972	×0.860	×0.950	×1.012	5.45%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷0.969	×0.950	×0.950	×1.012	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	6.41%	÷1.032	×0.780	—	×1.012	4.90%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .327 → .268; ISO .187 → .142; BABIP .289 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 110 PAwOBA .392 → .345 (−47)K% 22.7% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	27.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.73%	÷1.036	×0.690	—	×1.027	8.70%
HBP% /PA	3.64%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	3.17%
Singles /BIP	21.54%	÷1.008	×0.940	×1.023	×1.027	21.10%
Doubles /BIP	9.23%	÷0.905	×0.870	×1.023	×1.027	9.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.023	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.053	×0.780	—	×1.027	5.85%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .392 → .345; ISO .233 → .200; BABIP .323 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ATampa Tarpons · 103 PAwOBA .314 → .244 (−70)K% 27.2% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.18%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	36.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.65%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	7.96%
HBP% /PA	3.88%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	3.00%
Singles /BIP	25.42%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×0.990	24.31%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.990	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.78%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	5.37%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .314 → .244; ISO .138 → .099; BABIP .273 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesús Bastidas (OGILVIE)	28	50	50	50	45	205/267/339	133	274	3	2	30%	5%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	39	219/275/348	129	297	12	16	30%	5%	75	-0.5	235/292/380	145	304	15	19	27%	5%	89	+0.5	204/273/332	127	285	13	30	31%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Jake Hager 2021 · AAA	28	42→52	46→50	49→50	39	212/262/344	132	294	14	9	32%	6%	70	-0.9	204/263/327	123	272	12	10	28%	7%	65	-1.2	198/253/291	94	274	6	7	28%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Brandon Barnes 2013 · MLB	27	45→53	47→55	50	41	226/275/367	141	294	14	15	28%	6%	80	-0.2	232/279/351	119	314	11	14	28%	5%	77	-0.3	225/272/333	109	306	10	13	29%	5%	71	-0.5
✕Chuckie Robinson 2023 · MLB	28	43→53	45	45	41	216/266/332	116	273	13	7	26%	6%	68	-1.0	225/272/327	102	293	11	6	26%	5%	69	-0.9	224/272/312	88	296	10	4	27%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Taylor Featherston 2017 · MLB	27	41→46	46→50	49→50	38	209/254/341	132	265	14	11	27%	4%	66	-1.1	188/245/307	119	285	13	11	37%	5%	55	-2.0	164/223/274	110	271	13	10	43%	5%	37	-2.1
✕Beamer Weems 2015 · AAA	28	44→48	44→45	47→40	42	220/275/333	114	291	11	9	28%	6%	72	-0.7	208/261/306	98	255	8	7	21%	6%	60	-1.6	179/229/251	72	218	3	0	19%	6%	32	-1.4
✕Mario Lisson 2012 · AAA	28	44→49	50	51→55	39	226/276/380	154	295	18	16	30%	6%	84	+0.1	222/287/366	144	279	16	15	26%	7%	84	+0.2	222/292/345	123	288	15	8	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Humberto Sosa 2014 · AAA	28	44→48	46→45	48→45	44	222/268/348	126	263	14	8	22%	6%	72	-0.7	221/266/323	102	274	11	5	23%	6%	65	-1.2	203/254/315	112	253	14	2	25%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Steve Moss 2012 · AAA	28	45→51	45	50	40	221/282/345	124	317	13	10	33%	7%	78	-0.3	240/309/396	156	322	19	11	30%	8%	99	+1.3	226/307/400	174	278	23	8	27%	9%	97	+0.3
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43→42	46→50	49→50	42	216/272/344	128	288	14	11	30%	6%	74	-0.6	203/269/353	150	324	19	14	41%	7%	75	-0.5	141/210/279	138	225	21	18	47%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Aaron Schunk 2024 · AAA	27	45→48	44→45	47→50	39	220/266/337	117	304	11	10	31%	6%	69	-0.9	226/270/344	118	296	10	11	26%	5%	72	-0.7	220/264/333	113	284	9	10	25%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Orlando Calixte 2021 · AAA	29	47→50	43→45	51→55	41	233/277/342	109	308	12	15	28%	6%	74	-0.5	217/269/313	96	289	8	21	26%	7%	65	-1.2	199/248/263	64	266	4	30	25%	6%	43	-1.0
✕Kevin Smith 2023 · MLB	27	41→45	48→55	54→50	40	211/265/353	142	289	15	14	32%	6%	73	-0.6	214/258/349	135	309	17	16	35%	5%	70	-0.9	207/246/338	131	298	19	19	36%	4%	60	-0.8
✕J.J. Furmaniak 2006 · MLB	27	47→49	46→45	50	41	236/280/368	132	292	14	12	24%	5%	81	-0.1	223/274/335	112	290	12	17	26%	6%	72	-0.7	221/279/312	90	283	7	14	23%	6%	66	-0.9
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	41→36	48→50	51→50	37	212/251/355	143	272	16	13	29%	4%	68	-1.0	228/285/350	122	286	12	10	24%	6%	80	-0.2	232/297/331	98	288	9	6	21%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jeff Mathis 2011 · MLB	28	40→48	43→50	45	42	204/259/310	106	264	12	7	27%	6%	60	-1.6	198/244/316	118	260	12	5	28%	5%	56	-1.9	208/255/312	104	282	8	1	28%	5%	60	-0.4
✕Tomás Nido 2022 · MLB	28	46→45	47→45	50→30	39	232/274/364	132	294	15	6	27%	4%	78	-0.3	226/264/326	100	289	10	3	25%	5%	65	-1.2	217/249/302	85	276	9	0	25%	4%	53	-0.8
✕Gookie Dawkins 2007 · AAA	28	44→48	46→45	44→50	40	222/269/356	133	283	13	11	26%	5%	74	-0.5	211/253/306	95	284	8	11	27%	5%	57	-1.8	184/237/290	106	258	11	9	32%	6%	45	-1.6
✕Elier Hernandez 2023 · MLB	28	46→51	48→50	52→50	39	232/279/380	148	298	15	11	27%	5%	84	+0.1	239/290/373	134	310	12	9	26%	6%	86	+0.3	239/288/364	125	310	11	8	26%	6%	79	-0.2
✕Patrick Brady 2016 · AAA	28	43	45	49→45	39	216/257/338	122	284	13	13	28%	5%	65	-1.2	212/270/310	98	303	6	11	30%	7%	64	-1.3	195/261/286	91	285	3	9	30%	8%	53	-1.1