Jake Hager

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1993-03-04

Age (2027)34

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	29	AAAARI	303	.261/.348/.391	5	8	63	—	.217/.280/.320
2022	29	MLBARI	59	.240/.345/.280	0	0	80	0.1
2023	30	AAAARI	209	.245/.304/.415	3	1	49	—	.197/.240/.321
2024	31	AAACHC	131	.221/.269/.328	2	0	17	—	.161/.200/.226
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2024 AAA

Chase%49

Whiff%20

K%15

Max EV14

Z-Con%14

Speed14

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	18	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	204	193	52	11	1	4	9	26	1	5	7	269	305	399	704	130	294	13	4	312	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	442	124	22	3	10	40	60	7	17	11	281	350	412	761	131	302	12	8	334	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	498	449	116	15	3	0	38	81	3	12	8	258	320	305	626	47	312	16	8	284	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	490	447	121	26	4	4	30	91	2	4	4	271	319	374	693	103	328	19	6	305	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	293	272	62	18	1	2	16	60	0	3	2	228	271	324	594	96	283	20	5	263	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	190	179	43	10	1	2	7	35	1	4	1	240	273	341	614	101	289	18	4	270	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	291	271	62	9	3	4	13	43	5	3	4	229	277	328	605	100	257	15	4	272	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	123	116	31	8	1	1	5	17	1	2	3	267	303	379	683	112	303	14	4	302	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	257	219	64	18	1	10	28	44	3	6	0	292	380	521	901	228	316	17	11	385	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA	San Antonio Missions	—	366	327	79	16	2	12	30	107	1	5	1	242	307	413	720	171	316	29	8	314	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	30	26	3	0	0	0	4	14	0	0	0	115	233	115	349		250	47	13	184	10	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
2021	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	344	308	74	23	0	15	32	79	1	7	0	240	314	461	775	221	272	23	9	338	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	59	50	12	2	0	0	8	17	0	0	0	240	345	280	625	40	364	29	14	292	80	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2022	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	303	261	68	19	0	5	32	60	3	8	2	261	348	391	739	130	313	20	11	327	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA	Reno Aces	—	209	188	46	13	5	3	14	47	2	1	3	245	304	415	719	170	307	22	7	310	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	131	122	27	7	0	2	7	43	1	0	0	221	269	328	597	107	325	33	5	268	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	89	76	15	2	0	0	12	31	0	0	0	197	307	224	531	26	333	35	13	255	59	-4	+0	-1	+3	+2	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	204	196	43	8	1	3	6	37	1	5	7	219	246	316	563	97	251	18	3	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	452	118	19	3	7	30	84	7	17	11	261	317	363	680	102	292	17	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	498	458	107	15	3	0	29	121	3	12	8	234	284	279	563	46	306	24	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	490	455	118	24	3	3	22	107	2	4	4	259	296	345	642	86	320	22	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	293	279	55	14	1	2	9	72	0	3	2	197	222	276	498	79	252	25	3	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	190	181	40	9	1	1	5	44	1	4	1	221	246	298	544	77	277	23	3	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	291	274	55	7	3	3	10	50	5	3	4	201	242	281	523	80	233	17	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	123	117	27	6	1	1	4	24	1	2	3	231	262	325	587	94	270	20	3	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	257	228	59	17	1	8	19	58	3	6	0	259	324	447	771	189	289	23	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	366	337	62	11	2	9	20	141	1	5	1	184	232	309	540	125	264	39	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	30	26	3	0	0	0	4	14	0	0	0	115	233	115	349		250	47	13	183	10	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
2021	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	344	317	59	17	0	11	23	96	1	7	0	186	243	344	587	158	223	28	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	59	50	12	2	0	0	8	17	0	0	0	240	345	280	625	40	364	29	14	286	80	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2022	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	303	272	59	16	0	4	21	72	3	8	2	217	280	320	600	103	262	24	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	209	193	38	10	4	2	9	59	2	1	3	197	240	321	561	124	262	28	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	131	124	20	5	0	1	5	52	1	0	0	161	200	226	426	65	270	40	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	204	196	43	8	1	3	6	37	1	5	7	219	246	316	563	97	256	18	3	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	—	204	193	52	11	1	4	9	26	1	5	7	269	305	399	704	130	294	13	4	312	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	452	118	19	3	7	30	84	7	17	11	261	317	363	680	102	302	17	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	442	124	22	3	10	40	60	7	17	11	281	350	412	761	131	302	12	8	334	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	498	458	107	15	3	0	29	121	3	12	8	234	284	279	563	46	314	24	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	498	449	116	15	3	0	38	81	3	12	8	258	320	305	626	47	312	16	8	284	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	490	455	118	24	3	3	22	107	2	4	4	259	296	345	642	86	329	22	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	490	447	121	26	4	4	30	91	2	4	4	271	319	374	693	103	328	19	6	305	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	460	95	23	2	3	14	116	1	7	3	207	232	285	516	78	268	24	3	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	483	451	105	28	2	4	23	95	1	7	3	233	272	330	602	98	285	20	5	266	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	291	274	55	7	3	3	10	50	5	3	4	201	242	281	523	80	233	17	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	291	271	62	9	3	4	13	43	5	3	4	229	277	328	605	100	257	15	4	272	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	380	345	85	24	2	8	23	81	4	8	3	246	301	397	698	151	293	21	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	380	335	95	26	2	11	33	61	4	8	3	284	355	472	826	188	311	16	9	358	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	366	337	62	11	2	9	20	141	1	5	1	184	232	309	540	125	277	39	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	San Antonio Missions	—	366	327	79	16	2	12	30	107	1	5	1	242	307	413	720	171	316	29	8	314	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	343	62	17	0	11	27	110	1	7	0	181	243	327	569	146	227	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	374	334	77	23	0	15	36	93	1	7	0	231	307	434	741	204	271	25	10	326	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	362	322	70	17	0	4	29	89	3	8	2	217	288	307	596	90	282	25	8	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	362	311	80	21	0	5	40	77	3	8	2	257	347	373	720	116	321	21	11	321	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	209	193	38	10	4	2	9	59	2	1	3	197	240	321	561	124	269	28	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	209	188	46	13	5	3	14	47	2	1	3	245	304	415	719	170	307	22	7	310	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	131	124	20	5	0	1	5	52	1	0	0	161	200	226	426	65	268	40	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	131	122	27	7	0	2	7	43	1	0	0	221	269	328	597	107	325	33	5	268	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	204	195	43	8	1	3	6	37	1	5	7	221	246	318	564	97	251	18	3	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	459	118	19	3	7	30	84	7	17	11	257	317	357	674	100	292	17	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	498	463	107	15	3	0	29	121	3	12	8	231	284	276	560	45	306	24	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	490	463	118	24	3	3	22	107	2	4	4	255	296	339	636	84	320	22	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	465	95	23	2	3	14	116	1	7	3	204	232	282	513	77	262	24	3	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	291	274	55	7	3	3	10	50	5	3	4	201	242	281	523	80	233	17	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	380	350	85	24	2	8	23	81	4	8	3	243	301	391	693	149	283	21	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	366	342	62	11	2	9	20	141	1	5	1	181	232	304	536	123	264	39	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	343	62	17	0	11	27	110	1	7	0	181	243	327	569	146	225	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	362	327	70	17	0	4	29	89	3	8	2	214	288	303	591	89	279	25	8	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	209	196	38	10	4	2	9	59	2	1	3	194	240	316	557	122	262	28	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	131	124	20	5	0	1	5	52	1	0	0	161	200	226	426	65	270	40	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	131	124	20	5	0	1	5	52	1	0	0	161	200	226	426	65	270	40	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	89	76	15	2	0	0	12	31	0	0	0	197	307	224	531	26	333	35	13	255	60	-4	+0	-1	+3	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	555	110	15	0	0	88	226	0	0	0	198	308	225	533	27	334	35	14	255	60	-32	+0	-7	+19	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4289	3959	873	180	23	54	224	1047	31	77	46	221	268	319	586	98	283	24	5	256	60	-4	+0	-1	+3	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	131	27	3	8	34	159	5	12	7	218	266	313	579	95	280	24	5	256	60	-32	+0	-7	+19	+14	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 131 PAwOBA .260 → .194 (−66)K% 32.8% → 39.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.82%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	39.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.34%	÷0.949	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.74%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.69%
Singles /BIP	22.78%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.953	×0.962	19.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.86%	÷0.962	×0.830	×0.953	×0.962	7.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.953	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .260 → .194; ISO .107 → .071; BABIP .325 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 209 PAwOBA .305 → .241 (−64)K% 22.5% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.49%	÷0.951	×1.200	—	—	28.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.70%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.10%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.87%
Singles /BIP	17.73%	÷1.026	×0.930	×1.026	×0.972	16.02%
Doubles /BIP	9.22%	÷1.059	×0.830	×1.026	×0.972	7.20%
Triples /BIP	3.55%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.026	×0.972	2.98%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .305 → .241; ISO .170 → .129; BABIP .307 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 303 PAwOBA .324 → .261 (−63)K% 19.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.80%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	23.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.56%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.02%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.91%
Singles /BIP	21.89%	÷1.025	×0.930	×0.968	×0.982	18.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.45%	÷0.996	×0.830	×0.968	×0.982	7.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.100	×0.970	×0.968	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.49%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .324 → .261; ISO .130 → .102; BABIP .313 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 344 PAwOBA .332 → .254 (−78)K% 23.0% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.97%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	27.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.61%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.27%
Singles /BIP	15.72%	÷1.047	×0.930	×1.007	×0.992	13.95%
Doubles /BIP	10.04%	÷1.096	×0.830	×1.007	×0.992	7.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.113	×0.920	×1.007	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.55%	÷0.958	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.75%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .332 → .254; ISO .221 → .159; BABIP .272 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 366 PAwOBA .307 → .232 (−75)K% 29.2% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.23%	÷0.979	×1.290	—	—	38.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.92%	÷1.055	×0.710	—	×1.018	5.43%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.27%
Singles /BIP	22.27%	÷0.995	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	19.49%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	5.45%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷0.930	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	5.45%	÷0.977	×0.780	—	×1.018	4.43%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 86, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .307 → .232; ISO .171 → .127; BABIP .316 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 257 PAwOBA .382 → .328 (−55)K% 17.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.12%	÷0.933	×1.220	—	—	22.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.51%	÷0.964	×0.680	—	×0.998	7.39%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.98%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.967	×0.920	×0.964	×0.998	18.31%
Doubles /BIP	10.29%	÷0.918	×0.910	×0.964	×0.998	9.82%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.964	×0.998	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷1.078	×0.800	—	×0.998	4.23%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .382 → .328; ISO .228 → .192; BABIP .316 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 123 PAwOBA .297 → .246 (−51)K% 13.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.82%	÷0.925	×1.290	—	—	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.07%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.033	3.03%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.82%
Singles /BIP	21.21%	÷1.014	×0.900	×1.009	×1.033	19.61%
Doubles /BIP	8.08%	÷1.014	×0.810	×1.009	×1.033	6.72%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.009	×1.033	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	1.01%	÷1.124	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.72%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .297 → .246; ISO .112 → .085; BABIP .303 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 291 PAwOBA .266 → .234 (−33)K% 14.8% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.78%	÷1.027	×1.200	—	—	17.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.47%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.25%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.69%
Singles /BIP	20.18%	÷1.025	×0.930	×0.968	×1.048	18.57%
Doubles /BIP	3.95%	÷1.008	×0.830	×0.968	×1.048	3.30%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.022	×0.970	×0.968	×1.048	1.27%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷1.049	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.47%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 104, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .266 → .234; ISO .100 → .086; BABIP .257 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).