Alan Espinoza
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33 | INTLCaneros de lo… | 92 | .239/.256/.330 | 2 | 0 | 59 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | INTLAlgodoneros d… | 72 | .219/.275/.406 | 3 | 0 | 82 | — |
| 2026 | 35 | INTLCharros de Ja… | 28 | .280/.333/.280 | 0 | 0 | 73 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 70 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 290 | 349 | 639 | 127 | 295 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 22 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 333 | 300 | 633 | 375 | 18 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 22 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 92 | 81 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 352 | 333 | 685 | 62 | 319 | 13 | 9 | 314 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 235 | 207 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 271 | 341 | 435 | 775 | 164 | 300 | 18 | 8 | 338 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 211 | 184 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 314 | 462 | 776 | 223 | 254 | 20 | 8 | 331 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 29 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 393 | 414 | 750 | 1.164 | 357 | 450 | 21 | 3 | 499 | 224 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 248 | 224 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 259 | 325 | 469 | 794 | 210 | 278 | 16 | 7 | 347 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 76 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 267 | 333 | 600 | 97 | 302 | 25 | 4 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 288 | 267 | 74 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 52 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 325 | 419 | 745 | 142 | 312 | 18 | 5 | 330 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 365 | 331 | 108 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 24 | 54 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 326 | 381 | 511 | 891 | 184 | 353 | 15 | 7 | 388 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 26 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 538 | 476 | 1.015 | 48 | 529 | 15 | 19 | 462 | 199 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 144 | 135 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 289 | 324 | 437 | 761 | 148 | 324 | 17 | 4 | 333 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 177 | 164 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 293 | 421 | 714 | 171 | 286 | 21 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 31 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 220 | 198 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 409 | 721 | 167 | 273 | 19 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 32 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 138 | 127 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 230 | 236 | 466 | 55 | 239 | 25 | 6 | 210 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 33 | INTL | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 92 | 88 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 256 | 330 | 585 | 91 | 268 | 16 | 2 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 34 | INTL | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 72 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 275 | 406 | 682 | 188 | 208 | 14 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 35 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 28 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 333 | 280 | 613 | 368 | 21 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 70 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 232 | 292 | 524 | 108 | 267 | 33 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 92 | 84 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 330 | 333 | 663 | 60 | 320 | 15 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 235 | 214 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 252 | 301 | 379 | 680 | 126 | 291 | 22 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 211 | 191 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 255 | 377 | 632 | 173 | 224 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 248 | 230 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 280 | 400 | 680 | 170 | 255 | 19 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 288 | 272 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 294 | 375 | 669 | 118 | 295 | 20 | 3 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 365 | 341 | 92 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 65 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 270 | 308 | 425 | 734 | 155 | 293 | 18 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 244 | 286 | 530 | 95 | 283 | 33 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 92 | 83 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 300 | 337 | 637 | 96 | 317 | 24 | 8 | 283 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 92 | 84 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 330 | 333 | 663 | 60 | 329 | 15 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AAA RAW | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 92 | 81 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 352 | 333 | 685 | 62 | 319 | 13 | 9 | 314 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 235 | 214 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 252 | 301 | 379 | 680 | 126 | 302 | 22 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA RAW | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 235 | 207 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 271 | 341 | 435 | 775 | 164 | 300 | 18 | 8 | 338 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 218 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 258 | 376 | 634 | 170 | 234 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 240 | 212 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 326 | 500 | 826 | 241 | 279 | 20 | 8 | 351 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 301 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 277 | 399 | 676 | 169 | 259 | 19 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 324 | 296 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 59 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 312 | 436 | 747 | 182 | 284 | 18 | 6 | 328 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 288 | 272 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 294 | 375 | 669 | 118 | 300 | 20 | 3 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 288 | 267 | 74 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 52 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 325 | 419 | 745 | 142 | 312 | 18 | 5 | 330 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 366 | 98 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 268 | 306 | 415 | 721 | 148 | 300 | 18 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 391 | 352 | 117 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 58 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 332 | 391 | 509 | 900 | 176 | 364 | 15 | 7 | 393 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | INTL MLE | Charros de Jalisco | — | 144 | 135 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 289 | 324 | 437 | 761 | 148 | 324 | 17 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | INTL RAW | Charros de Jalisco | — | 144 | 135 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 289 | 324 | 437 | 761 | 148 | 324 | 17 | 4 | 333 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 177 | 164 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 293 | 421 | 714 | 171 | 286 | 21 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 177 | 164 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 293 | 421 | 714 | 171 | 286 | 21 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 31 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 220 | 198 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 409 | 721 | 167 | 273 | 19 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 31 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 220 | 198 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 409 | 721 | 167 | 273 | 19 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 32 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 138 | 127 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 230 | 236 | 466 | 55 | 239 | 25 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 32 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 138 | 127 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 230 | 236 | 466 | 55 | 239 | 25 | 6 | 210 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 33 | INTL MLE | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 92 | 88 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 256 | 330 | 585 | 91 | 268 | 16 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 33 | INTL RAW | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 92 | 88 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 256 | 330 | 585 | 91 | 268 | 16 | 2 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 34 | INTL MLE | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 72 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 275 | 406 | 682 | 188 | 208 | 14 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 34 | INTL RAW | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 72 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 275 | 406 | 682 | 188 | 208 | 14 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 35 | INTL MLE | Charros de Jalisco | — | 28 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 333 | 280 | 613 | 368 | 21 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 35 | INTL RAW | Charros de Jalisco | — | 28 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 333 | 280 | 613 | 368 | 21 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 21 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 244 | 279 | 524 | 93 | 267 | 33 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 92 | 85 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 271 | 330 | 329 | 659 | 59 | 320 | 15 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA MLE | Tigres de Quintana Roo | — | 235 | 218 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 248 | 301 | 372 | 673 | 124 | 291 | 22 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 223 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 258 | 368 | 625 | 166 | 224 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 301 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 277 | 399 | 676 | 169 | 255 | 19 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 288 | 272 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 294 | 375 | 669 | 118 | 295 | 20 | 3 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 368 | 98 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 306 | 413 | 719 | 147 | 293 | 18 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2533 | 2340 | 568 | 99 | 11 | 67 | 123 | 513 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 243 | 289 | 380 | 669 | 138 | 281 | 20 | 5 | 190 | 15 | -256 | -0 | +0 | +45 | +55 | -16.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 145 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 132 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 242 | 288 | 378 | 666 | 137 | 281 | 20 | 5 | 190 | 15 | -66 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -4.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 365 PAwOBA .381 → .313 (−68)K% 14.8% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.79% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.03% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷1.056 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 22.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.057 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.865 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.77% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 111, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .381 → .313; ISO .184 → .154; BABIP .353 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 288 PAwOBA .322 → .289 (−33)K% 18.1% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.06% | ÷1.095 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.86% | ÷1.043 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 24.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.19% | ÷0.899 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.19% | ÷0.929 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.21% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 80, 3B 80, K 119, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .322 → .289; ISO .142 → .118; BABIP .312 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 248 PAwOBA .336 → .290 (−46)K% 16.1% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.13% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷0.931 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.005 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 16.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.89% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.54% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 103, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .336 → .290; ISO .210 → .169; BABIP .278 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 211 PAwOBA .324 → .276 (−49)K% 20.4% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷1.121 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×1.048 | 15.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.074 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.048 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.048 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.920 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.65% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 100, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 102, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .324 → .276; ISO .223 → .186; BABIP .254 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAATigres de Quintana Roo · 235 PAwOBA .330 → .294 (−35)K% 17.9% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.87% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.23% | ÷1.034 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷0.954 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.45% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 95, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .330 → .294; ISO .164 → .129; BABIP .300 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAATigres de Quintana Roo · 92 PAwOBA .306 → .290 (−16)K% 13.0% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.073 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.64% | ÷0.970 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 25.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 101, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .306 → .290; ISO .062 → .059; BABIP .319 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAAcereros del Norte · 70 PAwOBA .277 → .222 (−55)K% 25.7% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.71% | ÷0.946 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷0.982 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.050 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.050 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.100 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.050 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.173 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.39% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 120, K 89, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .277 → .222; ISO .127 → .090; BABIP .295 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .