Yu Chang — OGILVIE

Yu ChangSS Durham Bulls

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 209 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 200 proj PA

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .284 / .388

PA200

HR7

SB5

K%26

BB%7

ISO168

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractPOW 49

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT—

Whiff%

2913.4%

xwOBA

250.280

POWER49

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

3688.0

Bat Spd

6272.6

EYE46

Chase%

3734.2%

SPEED62

Sprint

6828.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	181	167	42	6	3	5	10	40	3	6	1	251	306	413	719	162	301	22	6	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	181	159	55	9	4	6	18	28	3	6	1	346	422	566	988	220	389	15	10	430	187	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Lake County Captains	—	440	401	74	15	3	5	19	136	9	5	6	185	238	274	512	90	261	31	4	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Lake County Captains	—	440	393	91	16	4	9	27	103	9	5	6	232	296	361	657	130	288	23	6	289	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	2 teams	—	539	490	102	25	6	14	31	194	6	12	3	208	264	369	633	161	304	36	6	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	2 teams	—	539	473	125	35	8	13	48	131	6	12	3	264	340	455	794	190	333	24	9	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	508	459	81	17	3	21	33	176	9	11	4	176	246	364	609	187	225	35	6	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	508	440	97	24	5	24	52	134	9	11	4	220	315	461	777	241	254	26	10	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	2 teams	—	614	557	124	29	3	10	37	198	11	5	3	223	284	339	624	117	321	32	6	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	2 teams	—	614	543	146	32	2	17	51	160	11	5	3	269	344	429	773	160	347	26	8	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	—	367	337	71	14	2	9	26	104	1	4	1	211	269	344	613	134	273	28	7	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	2 teams	—	367	326	77	17	2	10	37	89	1	4	1	236	316	393	709	156	291	24	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	2 teams	—	317	298	71	18	3	12	14	92	4	2	2	238	282	440	721	201	303	29	4	312	97	-1	-0	+2	-6	+9	0.4
2021	25	MLB	2 teams	—	317	296	73	19	3	13	16	88	4	2	2	247	294	463	757	216	306	28	5	331	111	+4	-0	+2	-6	+9	0.9
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	214	187	37	6	0	4	20	65	4	0	1	198	289	294	583	96	273	30	9	265	61	-9	-0	+2	+1	+6	-0.1
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	214	186	38	7	0	4	21	64	4	0	1	204	299	306	605	102	281	30	10	277	70	-7	-0	+2	+1	+6	0.2
2023	27	MLB	3 teams	—	193	183	34	3	0	8	6	54	2	6	0	186	220	333	553	148	215	28	3	245	46	-12	+1	+4	+2	+5	0.1
2023	27	MLB	3 teams	—	193	181	38	4	0	9	8	51	2	6	0	210	251	381	633	171	240	26	4	277	70	-6	+1	+4	+2	+5	0.7
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	51	44	12	3	0	2	6	17	1	2	1	273	373	477	850	205	400	33	12	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	51	41	12	3	0	2	9	15	1	2	1	293	431	512	944	220	417	29	18	419	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	TB	—	200	182	41	7	1	7	14	51	2	5	1	225	288	390	678	165	266	26	7	300	88	-3	+1	+1	+2	+6	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	TB	33%	185	168	38	6	1	7	13	48	2	4	1	226	290	399	688	173	263	26	7	296	85	-3	+0	-2	+2	+5	0.2
2027	31	MLB	TB	33%	60	55	12	2	0	2	4	16	1	1	0	218	283	364	647	145	266	27	7	287	78	-2	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	697	638	131	26	4	22	45	200	9	6	1	205	267	362	629	157	260	29	6	280	72	-22	+1	+10	-1	+20	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	123	24	4	21	42	187	8	6	1	207	268	366	635	160	262	29	6	280	72	-20	+1	+9	-1	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	3809	3473	727	149	25	104	229	1175	54	62	24	209	269	356	625	147	280	31	6	270	65	-151	+3	+9	+28	+108	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	124	25	4	18	39	201	9	11	4	209	268	356	624	147	280	31	6	270	65	-26	+1	+2	+5	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	181	159	55	9	4	6	18	28	3	6	1	346	422	566	988	220	389	15	10	430	187	+18	+1	—	—	+5	2.4
2015	19	A	Lake County Captains	—	440	393	91	16	4	9	27	103	9	5	6	232	296	361	657	130	288	23	6	289	80	-10	-1	—	—	+12	0.1
2016	20	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	477	417	108	30	8	13	45	110	4	11	3	259	337	463	800	204	316	23	9	345	122	+12	+1	—	—	+14	2.7
2016	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	62	56	17	5	0	0	3	21	2	1	0	304	361	393	754	89	486	34	5	336	115	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2017	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	508	440	97	24	5	24	52	134	9	11	4	220	315	461	777	241	254	26	10	338	117	+10	+1	—	—	+14	2.5
2018	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	518	457	117	28	2	13	44	144	9	4	3	256	333	411	745	155	341	28	8	329	110	+6	-0	—	—	+15	2.1
2018	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	96	86	29	4	0	4	7	16	2	1	0	337	400	523	923	186	373	17	7	404	168	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2019	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	84	73	13	2	1	1	11	22	0	0	0	178	286	274	560	96	240	26	13	263	59	-4	+0	+2	+1	+2	0.2
2019	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	283	253	64	15	1	9	26	67	1	4	1	253	325	427	752	174	306	24	9	331	112	+4	+0	—	—	+8	1.2
2021	25	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	251	237	54	14	3	9	11	69	2	1	0	228	268	426	694	198	281	27	4	303	90	-3	+0	+2	-6	+7	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	66	59	19	5	0	4	5	19	2	1	2	322	394	610	1.004	288	417	29	8	436	192	+7	-1	—	—	+2	0.8
2022	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	190	168	35	6	0	4	16	59	4	0	1	208	293	315	608	107	290	31	8	278	71	-6	-0	+2	+1	+5	0.2
2022	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	24	18	3	1	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	167	348	222	570	56	214	21	21	274	68	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	105	17	2	0	6	3	34	2	4	0	162	200	352	552	190	169	30	3	239	41	-7	+1	+4	+2	+3	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	66	62	20	2	0	3	4	13	0	2	0	323	364	500	864	177	370	20	6	381	150	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	27	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	15	14	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	71	133	71	205		100	27	7	107	-60	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	51	41	12	3	0	2	9	15	1	2	1	293	431	512	944	220	417	29	18	419	179	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	637	583	119	24	4	20	41	184	8	5	1	204	266	362	628	158	259	29	6	279	72	-20	+1	+10	-2	+18	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	717	23	7	207	266	366	+8	+9	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	21	6	207	266	366	+7.1	+8.0	0.7	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yu Chang (OGILVIE)	30	—	49	62	46	221/284/388	166	266	7	5	26%	7%	88	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Herrmann 2018 · MLB	30	40→48	51→50	55→50	51	212/293/370	157	261	19	11	26%	10%	85	+0.7	229/309/385	156	308	18	6	29%	10%	96	+1.5	215/297/359	143	306	15	0	32%	10%	82	+0.2
✕Hernán Pérez 2021 · MLB	30	46→55	50→55	52→55	43	238/282/393	155	288	19	16	25%	6%	86	+0.8	240/286/377	137	303	16	20	26%	6%	84	+0.6	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	43→44	52→55	53→50	44	222/284/389	167	280	19	12	28%	7%	87	+0.8	231/298/418	187	310	23	9	31%	8%	101	+1.8	210/276/405	195	273	27	2	33%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Trevor Story 2023 · MLB	30	43→49	53→60	55	48	226/300/405	179	279	21	20	27%	9%	98	+1.6	233/294/394	161	303	19	24	28%	7%	92	+1.2	241/292/393	153	309	20	30	28%	6%	88	+0.5
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	48→53	50	56→55	43	238/303/396	159	315	17	24	29%	7%	97	+1.5	224/272/345	121	325	12	14	33%	5%	70	-0.3	219/262/322	103	328	9	10	35%	4%	57	-0.9
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2013 · MLB	29	48	51→55	49→50	46	245/298/407	162	287	19	9	22%	7%	97	+1.5	223/287/385	162	268	18	6	23%	8%	87	+0.8	203/272/364	161	242	17	5	24%	8%	73	-0.0
✕Erik Kratz 2010 · AAA	30	42→44	53→60	51→45	41	224/271/398	174	268	20	8	25%	5%	84	+0.6	224/285/385	161	267	18	5	23%	6%	87	+0.8	218/284/385	167	250	20	2	22%	6%	85	+0.4
✕Mike Brosseau 2023 · MLB	29	46→56	51→55	52→45	47	233/318/393	159	306	20	8	29%	9%	102	+1.9	215/286/355	140	273	19	6	28%	7%	79	+0.3	191/261/308	117	239	17	5	27%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Chris Owings 2022 · MLB	30	46→56	50	51→55	43	228/293/390	162	320	17	14	33%	8%	91	+1.1	198/269/331	133	281	15	11	33%	8%	66	-0.6	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Justin Maxwell 2014 · MLB	30	45→44	55→60	52→60	45	231/303/423	192	311	23	15	32%	8%	104	+2.0	214/278/348	134	312	15	9	34%	7%	73	-0.1	199/263/308	108	295	13	6	35%	6%	54	-0.6
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	42	52→50	49→50	44	224/282/384	160	260	22	7	24%	6%	85	+0.7	207/292/345	138	268	16	11	28%	9%	79	+0.3	157/276/271	115	204	15	12	29%	12%	54	-0.6
✕Garrett Stubbs 2023 · MLB	30	48	48→45	53→50	55	239/325/383	144	296	16	11	24%	11%	102	+1.9	225/298/335	110	290	11	12	25%	8%	79	+0.3	217/287/307	90	281	9	11	25%	7%	65	-0.2
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	40→48	55→60	48→30	42	215/279/397	183	294	23	3	35%	8%	88	+0.9	204/276/359	155	296	19	6	36%	8%	76	+0.1	154/240/282	128	225	16	0	37%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	52→55	43→45	47	220/295/386	166	285	21	6	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/278/363	155	281	19	6	32%	8%	78	+0.2	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→48	47→50	49→45	46	249/307/386	138	316	15	5	26%	7%	95	+1.4	225/282/357	132	285	15	11	26%	7%	77	+0.1	192/248/303	111	240	13	13	25%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Skye Bolt 2023 · MLB	29	46→39	51→50	54→50	43	236/295/396	160	293	20	14	26%	6%	93	+1.3	232/300/353	121	326	12	10	30%	8%	84	+0.6	229/307/327	97	339	8	5	32%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Mario Lisson 2014 · AAA	30	44→49	49→55	48→55	43	225/289/378	153	282	17	14	26%	6%	86	+0.8	234/299/385	151	297	19	10	27%	7%	92	+1.2	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Josh Fields 2012 · MLB	29	50→56	52→55	51→50	44	255/310/428	173	317	20	12	26%	7%	108	+2.3	239/287/355	116	334	11	11	30%	6%	78	+0.2	250/287/350	100	340	7	9	28%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Mikie Mahtook 2019 · MLB	29	45→55	52→60	52→50	43	233/291/404	170	289	20	10	27%	6%	93	+1.3	222/284/411	189	271	26	13	28%	7%	93	+1.3	205/266/394	190	242	28	13	29%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→43	53→55	49→40	45	223/288/393	170	274	22	6	27%	7%	90	+1.0	215/275/384	169	275	21	6	29%	7%	82	+0.5	205/266/377	172	258	22	4	30%	7%	73	-0.1