Brendon Davis
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAADET | 589 | .235/.342/.423 | 20 | 8 | 68 | — | .193/.277/.330 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAADET | 156 | .178/.288/.363 | 5 | 1 | 32 | — | .136/.224/.271 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 497 | .229/.350/.366 | 10 | 24 | 52 | — | .178/.268/.282 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 121 | 114 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 292 | 325 | 616 | 70 | 350 | 28 | 5 | 276 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 436 | 398 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 118 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 241 | 298 | 334 | 632 | 93 | 326 | 27 | 7 | 283 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 400 | 673 | 200 | 312 | 39 | 9 | 298 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 457 | 387 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 59 | 135 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 233 | 347 | 377 | 725 | 145 | 328 | 30 | 13 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 463 | 406 | 103 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 105 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 254 | 337 | 365 | 702 | 111 | 324 | 23 | 10 | 316 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 401 | 346 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 113 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 202 | 301 | 272 | 572 | 69 | 285 | 28 | 10 | 267 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 133 | 117 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 406 | 641 | 1.047 | 308 | 383 | 21 | 8 | 450 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 131 | 112 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 268 | 369 | 536 | 905 | 268 | 310 | 26 | 14 | 392 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 282 | 254 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 75 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 280 | 342 | 535 | 877 | 256 | 337 | 27 | 7 | 377 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 589 | 503 | 118 | 29 | 3 | 20 | 73 | 135 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 235 | 342 | 423 | 765 | 189 | 278 | 23 | 12 | 341 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 156 | 135 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 288 | 363 | 651 | 185 | 229 | 30 | 12 | 296 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | — | 29 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 345 | 556 | 900 | 259 | 350 | 21 | 7 | 391 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 468 | 388 | 87 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 62 | 109 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 224 | 350 | 353 | 703 | 129 | 284 | 23 | 13 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 121 | 116 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 217 | 250 | 467 | 60 | 294 | 40 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 436 | 407 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 162 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 211 | 253 | 287 | 541 | 76 | 326 | 37 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 182 | 290 | 472 | 161 | 266 | 55 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 457 | 407 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 179 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 184 | 270 | 290 | 560 | 106 | 296 | 39 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 463 | 423 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 150 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 208 | 267 | 288 | 555 | 80 | 300 | 32 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 401 | 359 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 140 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 170 | 247 | 223 | 470 | 53 | 260 | 35 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 133 | 121 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 281 | 346 | 521 | 867 | 240 | 338 | 26 | 5 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 131 | 117 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 402 | 702 | 179 | 269 | 31 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 282 | 260 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 98 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 215 | 266 | 423 | 689 | 208 | 273 | 35 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 589 | 524 | 101 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 161 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 193 | 277 | 330 | 607 | 137 | 241 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 156 | 140 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 136 | 224 | 271 | 496 | 136 | 184 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | — | 29 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 276 | 464 | 740 | 214 | 319 | 24 | 3 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 468 | 410 | 71 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 139 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 173 | 268 | 271 | 539 | 98 | 230 | 30 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 121 | 116 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 217 | 250 | 467 | 60 | 313 | 40 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | Ogden Raptors | — | 121 | 114 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 292 | 325 | 616 | 70 | 350 | 28 | 5 | 276 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 436 | 407 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 162 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 211 | 253 | 287 | 541 | 76 | 335 | 37 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | Great Lakes Loons | — | 436 | 398 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 118 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 241 | 298 | 334 | 632 | 93 | 326 | 27 | 7 | 283 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 490 | 438 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 197 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 178 | 262 | 281 | 543 | 103 | 298 | 40 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 490 | 417 | 96 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 148 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 230 | 342 | 379 | 721 | 149 | 327 | 30 | 13 | 328 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 463 | 423 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 150 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 208 | 267 | 288 | 555 | 80 | 308 | 32 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 463 | 406 | 103 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 105 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 254 | 337 | 365 | 702 | 111 | 324 | 23 | 10 | 316 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 401 | 359 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 140 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 170 | 247 | 223 | 470 | 53 | 266 | 35 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 401 | 346 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 113 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 202 | 301 | 272 | 572 | 69 | 285 | 28 | 10 | 267 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 499 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 23 | 32 | 173 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 228 | 288 | 431 | 719 | 202 | 295 | 32 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 546 | 483 | 140 | 29 | 6 | 30 | 47 | 137 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 290 | 364 | 561 | 925 | 271 | 343 | 25 | 9 | 398 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 589 | 524 | 101 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 161 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 193 | 277 | 330 | 607 | 137 | 246 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 589 | 503 | 118 | 29 | 3 | 20 | 73 | 135 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 235 | 342 | 423 | 765 | 189 | 278 | 23 | 12 | 341 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 156 | 140 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 136 | 224 | 271 | 496 | 136 | 190 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 156 | 135 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 288 | 363 | 651 | 185 | 229 | 30 | 12 | 296 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 497 | 438 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 146 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 176 | 266 | 274 | 540 | 98 | 241 | 29 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 497 | 415 | 95 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 115 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 229 | 350 | 366 | 716 | 137 | 288 | 23 | 13 | 326 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 121 | 116 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 217 | 250 | 467 | 60 | 294 | 40 | 3 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 436 | 410 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 162 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 253 | 285 | 539 | 76 | 326 | 37 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 490 | 437 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 197 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 178 | 262 | 281 | 544 | 103 | 294 | 40 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 463 | 426 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 150 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 207 | 267 | 286 | 553 | 80 | 300 | 32 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 401 | 361 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 140 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 169 | 247 | 222 | 469 | 53 | 260 | 35 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 499 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 23 | 32 | 173 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 228 | 288 | 431 | 719 | 202 | 288 | 32 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 589 | 523 | 101 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 161 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 193 | 277 | 331 | 608 | 138 | 241 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 156 | 139 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 137 | 224 | 273 | 498 | 137 | 184 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 497 | 440 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 146 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 175 | 266 | 273 | 539 | 98 | 235 | 29 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 497 | 440 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 146 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 175 | 266 | 273 | 539 | 98 | 235 | 29 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3699 | 3344 | 646 | 138 | 16 | 67 | 262 | 1235 | 59 | 68 | 25 | 193 | 264 | 304 | 568 | 111 | 279 | 33 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -193 | +4 | -1 | +27 | +80 | -8.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 114 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 217 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 194 | 264 | 306 | 570 | 112 | 280 | 33 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AATulsa Drillers · 468 PAwOBA .317 → .241 (−76)K% 23.3% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.29% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.03% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.07% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 16.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.142 | ×0.940 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .317 → .241; ISO .129 → .098; BABIP .284 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 29 PAwOBA .379 → .318 (−61)K% 20.7% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 13.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 17.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .379 → .318; ISO .259 → .213; BABIP .350 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 156 PAwOBA .288 → .216 (−72)K% 30.1% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.13% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.23% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 9.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 7.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.68% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.49% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .288 → .216; ISO .185 → .133; BABIP .229 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 589 PAwOBA .334 → .269 (−64)K% 22.9% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.92% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.93% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 16.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.88% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .334 → .269; ISO .189 → .141; BABIP .278 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 282 PAwOBA .371 → .286 (−85)K% 26.6% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.60% | ÷1.028 | ×1.350 | — | — | 34.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.74% | ÷1.047 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 16.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.50% | ÷0.913 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 8.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.82% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 6.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 114, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 106, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .371 → .286; ISO .256 → .206; BABIP .337 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 133 PAwOBA .437 → .365 (−72)K% 21.1% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.52% | ÷1.090 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.60% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.048 | 21.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.99% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.048 | 7.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.048 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.99% | ÷0.907 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 7.27% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .437 → .365; ISO .308 → .247; BABIP .383 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 131 PAwOBA .384 → .293 (−92)K% 26.0% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.95% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.74% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 9.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.26% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 6.48% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .384 → .293; ISO .268 → .180; BABIP .310 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 401 PAwOBA .264 → .217 (−47)K% 28.2% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.18% | ÷0.986 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.75% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 21.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.58% | ÷0.960 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷1.208 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.89% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .264 → .217; ISO .069 → .055; BABIP .285 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).