Junior Caminero — OGILVIE

Junior Caminero3B Tampa Bay Rays

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 1.337 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 5.1 · 2029

wRC+†vL 123130vR 134

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .310 / .494

PA653

HR37

SB5

K%20

BB%6

xwOBA.357

Barrel%10.1%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

53→53

PWR

73→73

SPD

51→51

FLD

50↗55

EYE

44↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

5.2peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.337 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+4.1	$33M	+$32M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+4.7	$39M	+$38M
2028	Arb-1	$11M	+5.0	$42M	+$32M
2029	Arb-2	$19M	+5.1	$45M	+$26M
2030	Arb-3	$28M	+5.0	$45M	+$17M
Totals		$59M		$204M	+$144M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Indians Red	171	155	35	6	0	7	11	40	2	2	0	.226	.286	.400	.686	.174	.252	23	6	.294	83	-3	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2022	19	INTL	3 teams	442	407	103	9	2	17	25	101	7	18	2	.253	.308	.410	.718	.157	.295	23	6	.314	98	-1	+3	+0	+2	+13	1.6
2023	20	AA	4 teams	640	597	163	18	5	31	32	165	6	7	6	.273	.317	.476	.792	.203	.325	26	5	.340	118	+13	-1	+1	+2	+18	3.4
2024	21	AAA	4 teams	470	438	106	19	1	20	27	108	4	4	3	.242	.292	.427	.719	.185	.277	23	6	.308	94	-3	-0	-0	+2	+13	1.1
2025	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	653	602	156	27	0	44	41	125	3	7	1	.259	.310	.523	.833	.264	.255	19	6	.354	129	+21	+1	-1	+2	+19	4.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	110	96	25	3	0	6	13	18	0	0	1	.260	.349	.479	.828	.219	.260	16	12	.359	133	+4	-0	-3	+0	+3	0.5
ROS	23	MLB	TB	543	495	130	21	1	31	41	104	2	5	2	.263	.322	.497	.819	.234	.272	19	8	.355	130	+18	+0	-1	+2	+15	3.6
TOT	23	MLB	TB	653	591	155	24	1	37	54	122	2	5	3	.262	.326	.494	.820	.232	.271	19	8	.356	130	+22	-0	-3	+2	+19	4.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB	TB	665	606	160	26	1	39	51	104	3	6	3	.264	.324	.503	.828	.239	.260	16	8	.361	134	+26	+0	-1	+2	+19	4.7
2028	25	MLB	TB	670	609	162	26	1	40	53	104	3	6	3	.266	.328	.509	.837	.243	.260	16	8	.365	138	+28	+0	-1	+2	+19	5.0
2029	26	MLB	TB	670	608	163	26	1	41	54	104	3	6	3	.268	.331	.516	.847	.248	.261	16	8	.367	139	+29	+0	-1	+2	+19	5.1
2030	27	MLB	TB	665	603	161	26	1	40	54	103	3	5	3	.267	.330	.512	.843	.245	.261	15	8	.367	139	+29	-0	-1	+2	+19	5.1
2031	28	MLB	TB	657	595	158	25	1	40	54	104	3	4	2	.266	.330	.513	.842	.247	.260	16	8	.366	138	+28	+0	-1	+2	+19	4.9
2032	29	MLB	TB	645	583	155	25	1	39	54	103	3	3	1	.266	.331	.513	.844	.247	.259	16	8	.364	136	+27	+0	-2	+2	+18	4.6
2033	30	MLB	TB	633	572	150	24	1	37	53	104	3	2	1	.262	.328	.502	.830	.240	.258	16	8	.361	134	+24	+0	-3	+2	+18	4.3
2034	31	MLB	TB	618	560	145	23	1	36	51	104	2	0	0	.259	.323	.496	.819	.237	.257	17	8	.357	131	+22	+0	-3	+2	+18	3.9
2035	32	MLB	TB	599	542	139	22	1	34	50	104	2	0	0	.256	.322	.489	.810	.232	.255	17	8	.352	127	+19	+0	-4	+2	+17	3.4
2036	33	MLB	TB	569	515	130	20	1	32	47	102	2	0	0	.252	.317	.482	.799	.229	.253	18	8	.346	123	+15	+0	-5	+2	+16	2.8
2037	34	MLB	TB	520	470	116	18	1	28	43	98	2	0	0	.247	.313	.468	.781	.221	.251	19	8	.338	117	+10	+0	-5	+2	+15	2.2
2038	35	MLB	TB	464	422	101	15	1	24	38	92	1	0	0	.239	.304	.450	.754	.211	.249	20	8	.329	110	+5	+0	-6	+2	+13	1.4
2039	36	MLB	TB	402	366	85	13	0	20	32	84	1	0	0	.232	.296	.432	.727	.199	.245	21	8	.319	102	+1	+0	-7	+1	+11	0.7
2040	37	MLB	TB	337	307	69	10	0	16	26	74	1	0	0	.225	.287	.414	.701	.189	.241	22	8	.307	93	-3	+0	-7	+1	+10	0.1
2041	38	MLB	TB	266	243	52	8	0	11	20	60	1	0	0	.214	.277	.383	.659	.169	.236	23	8	.295	84	-5	+0	-8	+1	+8	-0.4
2042	39	MLB	TB	192	176	37	5	0	8	14	45	0	0	0	.210	.268	.375	.643	.165	.231	23	7	.282	74	-6	+0	-9	+1	+5	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11491	10471	2676	412	21	635	871	2132	57	75	30	.256	.316	.481	.797	.225	.263	19	8	.346	123	+296	+3	-65	+41	+326	61.3
/ 162G	—			650	592	151	23	1	36	49	121	3	4	2	.255	.315	.480	.795	.225	.262	19	8	.346	123	+17	+0	-4	+2	+18	3.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Indians Red	171	146	43	8	0	9	20	28	2	2	0	.295	.387	.534	.921	.240	.304	16	12	.397	162	+12	+0	—	—	+5	1.8
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	117	107	32	2	1	6	8	22	2	5	0	.299	.359	.505	.864	.206	.329	19	7	.381	149	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2022	19	ROK	FCL Rays	154	132	43	5	1	5	15	21	4	7	1	.326	.411	.492	.903	.167	.349	14	10	.395	160	+10	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2022	19	INTL	Perth Heat	171	155	47	4	1	14	15	31	1	6	1	.303	.368	.613	.981	.310	.300	18	9	.424	182	+16	+1	—	—	+5	2.2
2023	20	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	36	34	8	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	.235	.278	.353	.631	.118	.280	22	6	.283	75	-1	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.3
2023	20	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	351	314	97	9	3	20	32	60	2	3	4	.309	.376	.548	.924	.239	.325	17	9	.401	165	+26	-1	—	—	+10	3.5
2023	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	159	146	52	9	3	11	10	40	3	2	1	.356	.409	.685	1.094	.329	.432	25	6	.470	218	+21	+0	—	—	+5	2.6
2023	20	INTL	Leones del Escogido	94	87	29	6	0	5	4	19	1	2	1	.333	.370	.575	.944	.241	.369	20	4	.403	167	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	21	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	177	165	41	9	1	6	11	38	1	2	0	.248	.299	.424	.724	.176	.289	21	6	.320	103	+1	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.8
2024	21	AAA	Durham Bulls	236	217	60	9	0	13	16	50	2	1	1	.276	.332	.498	.830	.221	.303	21	7	.363	136	+10	-0	—	—	+7	1.6
2024	21	ROK	FCL Rays	22	17	4	1	0	3	5	2	0	0	0	.235	.409	.824	1.233	.588	.083	9	23	.501	241	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	21	INTL	Leones del Escogido	35	33	14	4	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	.424	.457	.545	1.003	.121	.438	3	3	.446	200	+4	-1	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	653	602	159	28	0	45	41	125	3	7	1	.264	.314	.535	.849	.271	.260	19	6	.365	137	+28	+1	-1	+2	+19	5.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			866	801	208	38	1	52	54	171	4	9	1	.260	.310	.504	.814	.245	.267	20	6	.352	128	+27	+1	-0	+6	+25	6.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Junior Caminero (OGILVIE)	23	53	73	51	40	.260/.319/.491	.232	.258	37	6	16%	8%	130	+4.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Evan Longoria 2009 · MLB	23	49→58	59→65	50	47	.259/.326/.472	.213	.300	28	7	24%	8%	126	+3.5	.272/.354/.500	.228	.310	27	9	21%	10%	144	+4.8	.273/.365/.510	.238	.300	28	8	19%	12%	140	+4.8
●Eric Chavez 2002 · MLB	24	53→54	61→65	46→45	53	.279/.342/.509	.230	.293	29	6	17%	9%	142	+4.6	.278/.351/.510	.232	.295	29	7	17%	10%	146	+4.9	.276/.364/.507	.231	.291	29	7	16%	12%	138	+4.6
●Gleyber Torres 2020 · MLB	23	51→54	60	45→50	49	.270/.333/.485	.215	.308	29	8	23%	8%	132	+4.0	.260/.329/.433	.173	.304	21	10	21%	9%	117	+2.9	.258/.343/.395	.138	.293	16	6	17%	11%	111	+2.7
●Eloy Jiménez 2021 · MLB	24	51→56	61→65	44→40	42	.271/.313/.490	.219	.311	30	2	24%	6%	126	+3.5	.265/.317/.455	.190	.315	26	2	24%	7%	118	+3.0	.268/.321/.438	.170	.313	23	0	22%	7%	113	+1.7
★Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2022 · MLB	23	55→62	62→65	46→45	57	.291/.369/.522	.231	.304	31	4	16%	10%	157	+5.7	.288/.362/.502	.214	.306	27	5	16%	10%	148	+5.1	.295/.377/.485	.190	.316	22	4	14%	11%	140	+5.1
★Andruw Jones 2002 · MLB	25	51→58	60→70	50	51	.272/.335/.490	.218	.288	29	13	18%	8%	134	+4.1	.267/.344/.495	.228	.293	30	8	20%	10%	140	+4.5	.259/.352/.526	.267	.268	37	5	19%	11%	140	+5.0
★Aramis Ramirez 2002 · MLB	24	54→59	58→70	42→45	48	.282/.331/.489	.207	.295	26	5	15%	6%	133	+4.0	.268/.320/.461	.193	.282	25	3	15%	6%	121	+3.2	.301/.361/.563	.262	.287	36	1	10%	8%	158	+5.7
★Nolan Arenado 2016 · MLB	25	51→56	58→70	39→40	46	.269/.308/.482	.214	.278	26	3	15%	5%	122	+3.3	.278/.341/.522	.244	.288	31	3	16%	9%	145	+4.9	.280/.354/.523	.243	.291	31	2	16%	10%	138	+5.0
★Cody Bellinger 2018 · MLB	23	43→53	64→70	51→50	48	.240/.313/.483	.243	.290	33	11	30%	9%	124	+3.4	.269/.355/.516	.247	.307	31	13	22%	12%	149	+5.1	.272/.367/.519	.247	.299	31	14	20%	13%	141	+3.9
★Manny Machado 2017 · MLB	25	54→58	59→65	43→50	51	.286/.344/.495	.210	.305	27	8	17%	8%	140	+4.5	.275/.337/.489	.214	.293	28	8	17%	8%	135	+4.2	.268/.337/.481	.213	.284	28	8	17%	9%	125	+3.9
●Miguel Sanó 2016 · MLB	23	46→52	62→70	48→45	48	.240/.326/.474	.233	.328	29	7	34%	11%	127	+3.6	.240/.325/.456	.216	.343	28	3	35%	11%	121	+3.2	.229/.318/.516	.287	.299	41	1	37%	11%	130	+2.6
★David Wright 2005 · MLB	22	52→62	59→60	54→55	48	.274/.323/.486	.211	.284	27	12	15%	6%	128	+3.7	.302/.377/.518	.216	.335	25	17	17%	10%	158	+5.8	.308/.396/.529	.221	.340	25	20	16%	12%	160	+6.9
●Cyle Hankerd 2007 · A	22	50→49	61→65	48→45	48	.268/.341/.491	.224	.292	30	8	20%	7%	138	+4.4	.231/.289/.345	.114	.272	11	3	19%	5%	77	+0.1	.258/.335/.455	.198	.298	25	2	22%	6%	123	+2.0
★Rafael Devers 2020 · MLB	23	52→58	59→65	42→45	47	.274/.326/.486	.212	.308	27	6	21%	7%	130	+3.8	.276/.336/.505	.229	.312	29	5	21%	8%	139	+4.4	.277/.351/.516	.240	.303	32	4	20%	9%	138	+4.7
●Jay Bruce 2010 · MLB	23	48→55	59→65	46→50	45	.255/.310/.468	.212	.300	27	8	25%	7%	118	+3.0	.256/.329/.461	.205	.302	26	8	23%	10%	124	+3.4	.253/.334/.464	.210	.300	26	7	24%	10%	115	+2.9
★Austin Riley 2021 · MLB	24	43→53	59→65	42→40	40	.235/.288/.443	.208	.297	28	3	31%	6%	103	+1.9	.269/.337/.490	.221	.324	29	2	25%	8%	135	+4.2	.273/.345/.498	.224	.325	30	1	25%	8%	136	+4.9
★Giancarlo Stanton 2013 · MLB	23	49→56	71→80	45	49	.269/.346/.558	.289	.317	39	7	28%	10%	157	+5.7	.266/.362/.522	.256	.328	34	7	28%	13%	154	+5.4	.271/.358/.548	.277	.318	39	2	27%	11%	148	+5.5
●Gary Sánchez 2018 · MLB	25	48→51	59→65	47→45	46	.259/.318/.468	.209	.292	28	6	22%	7%	122	+3.3	.225/.307/.457	.232	.254	33	3	26%	9%	115	+2.8	.203/.299/.443	.240	.224	36	0	29%	10%	103	+1.1
★Justin Morneau 2005 · MLB	24	48→58	61→65	46→30	52	.261/.327/.485	.225	.279	30	4	20%	9%	130	+3.8	.269/.334/.485	.216	.284	28	2	16%	8%	133	+4.0	.293/.364/.508	.215	.304	26	1	13%	9%	139	+5.1
★Hank Blalock 2004 · MLB	23	54→57	57→65	41→45	51	.278/.336/.476	.199	.303	24	4	18%	8%	131	+3.9	.272/.337/.465	.193	.306	23	3	19%	9%	128	+3.7	.266/.333/.441	.175	.299	21	1	18%	9%	115	+3.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)