Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B Toronto Blue Jays
Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 6.913 · Ctrl thru 2039
2026 ROS PROJECTION387 act + 293 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†vL 152147vR 134
AVG/OBP/SLG.277 / .364 / .426
PA293
HR8
K%13
BB%11
BABIP300
ISO148
MLB%100%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: +8.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+8BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -12.1 runs (Positional adjustment)-12POSREP: +19.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+19REPTotal WAR: +1.70+1.7WAR
0.02.55.00.73.12.92.62.21.60.90.20.00.0-$222M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 66 / POW 72
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT66
Whiff%
887.0%
xwOBA
900.386
POWER72
Barrel%
7311.6
Avg EV
9092.3
Bat Spd
9076.2
EYE58
Chase%
9021.9%
SPEED39
Sprint
2226.1
DEFENSE45
scouting grade only
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1488 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
321
1167
wRC+
178
146
◀◀L
wOBA
418
377
L
ISO
221
185
◀◀L
BABIP
332
329
K%
10.9%
14.4%
◀◀L
BB%
12.5%
8.9%
◀◀L
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2019
Service   6.913 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2039
First FA Year   2040
NTC
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$14M+0.7$3M-$12M
2027Ext$36M+3.1$23M-$9M
2028Ext$36M+2.9$20M-$9M
2029Ext$36M+2.6$17M-$9M
2030Ext$36M+2.2$13M-$10M
2031Ext$36M+1.6$9M-$12M
2032Ext$36M+0.9$2M-$17M
2033Ext$36M+0.2$0.5M-$17M
2034Ext$36M
2035Ext$36M
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2039Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $336M $84M -$127M
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$127M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201617 ROKBluefield Blue Jays 276249 52927 20502 155 209273345618 137228 187 267 63
201617 ROKBluefield Blue Jays 276236 641238 33352 155 271365449814 178283 1312 357 131
201718 A3 teams 625557 15830213 531068 104 284354415769 131326 178 338 117
201718 A3 teams 625527 16030413 83758 104 304406450856 146330 1213 381 150
201819 AA3 teams 482436 15830124 29556 54 3624106011.011 239365 116 432 189
201819 AA3 teams 482421 15833120 44436 54 3754426011.043 226375 99 446 199
201920 MLB3 teams 565510 13928218 50973 11 273341441782 169305 179 340 118 +12 -0 -14 +2 +16 1.6
201920 MLB3 teams 565509 14128218 51953 11 277346446792 169309 179 351 127 +17 -0 -14 +2 +16 2.1
202021 MLB2 teams 285259 6715211 23452 10 259324459783 201275 168 340 119 +6 +0 -3 -5 +8 0.6
202021 MLB2 teams 285260 7217211 22442 10 277338485823 208296 158 361 134 +11 +0 -3 -5 +8 1.1
202122 MLBToronto Blue Jays 698604 18729148 861106 41 3104015991.000 290310 1612 420 180 +63 +0 -9 -12 +20 6.3
202122 MLBToronto Blue Jays 698604 18829148 861106 41 3114026011.003 290312 1612 434 190 +71 +0 -9 -12 +20 7.1
202223 MLBToronto Blue Jays 706638 17435032 581166 83 273339478817 205287 168 349 125 +20 +0 -8 -13 +20 2.0
202223 MLBToronto Blue Jays 706638 17535032 581166 83 274340480820 205289 168 360 134 +27 +0 -8 -13 +20 2.7
202324 MLBToronto Blue Jays 682602 15830026 671009 53 262345442787 179275 1510 340 119 +14 -0 -15 -12 +19 0.7
202324 MLBToronto Blue Jays 682602 15930026 671009 53 264347444790 179277 1510 351 127 +20 -0 -15 -12 +19 1.3
202425 MLBToronto Blue Jays 697616 19844130 72965 22 321397542939 221340 1410 393 159 +46 -0 -11 -12 +20 4.3
202425 MLBToronto Blue Jays 697616 19944130 72965 22 323398544942 221342 1410 411 173 +57 -0 -11 -12 +20 5.4
202526 MLBToronto Blue Jays 680589 17134023 81946 63 290382465847 175311 1412 363 136 +28 +0 -7 -12 +19 2.9
202526 MLBToronto Blue Jays 680589 17234023 81946 63 292383467850 175313 1412 377 147 +36 +0 -7 -12 +19 3.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD27 MLBTOR 387336 881406 42504 71 262351357708 95288 1311 309 94 -2 +1 -0 -7 +11 0.2
YTD27 MLBTOR 387336 881406 42504 71 262351357708 95288 1311 321 104 +2 +1 -0 -7 +11 0.7
ROS27 MLBTOR 100% 293256 711408 32393 41 277364426790 148303 1311 358 132 +11 +0 -0 -5 +8 1.4
ROS27 MLBTOR 100% 293256 711408 32393 41 277364426790 148304 1311 352 128 +9 +0 -0 -5 +8 1.3
FULL27 MLBTOR 680592 15928014 74897 112 269357387743 118293 1311 327 109 +7 +1 -0 -12 +19 1.5
TOT27 MLBTOR 680592 15928014 74897 112 269357387743 118293 1311 330 111 +8 +1 -0 -12 +19 1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202728 MLBTOR 100% 660576 16333118 73896 92 283369438807 155305 1311 359 133 +24 +1 -1 -12 +19 3.2
202829 MLBTOR 100% 660575 16232118 74906 82 282369435804 153304 1411 357 131 +23 +1 -2 -12 +19 3.0
202930 MLBTOR 100% 656572 15832017 73916 71 276364421785 145302 1411 353 129 +21 +1 -2 -12 +19 2.7
203031 MLBTOR 100% 643560 15230016 72916 61 271361411771 139299 1411 348 125 +18 +1 -3 -11 +18 2.3
203132 MLBTOR 100% 630549 14729015 70926 51 268357403759 135294 1511 341 120 +14 +1 -4 -11 +18 1.8
203233 MLBTOR 100% 560488 12724013 62855 31 260350389739 129289 1511 333 113 +8 +0 -4 -10 +16 1.0
203334 MLBTOR 100% 512446 11220011 57814 20 251341370711 119281 1611 322 105 +3 +0 -5 -9 +15 0.4
203435 MLBTOR 100% 455398 951609 50754 10 239330347676 108272 1611 310 96 -2 +0 -6 -8 +13 -0.3
203536 MLBTOR 100% 394345 791307 43683 10 229320328647 99264 1711 298 86 -6 +0 -6 -7 +11 -0.8
202728 MLBTOR 100% 660576 16433118 73896 92 285371439810 155306 1311 353 128 +21 +1 -1 -12 +19 2.9
202829 MLBTOR 100% 660575 16232118 74906 82 282369435804 153305 1411 351 126 +20 +1 -2 -12 +19 2.6
202930 MLBTOR 100% 656572 15932017 73916 71 278366423789 145303 1411 347 124 +18 +1 -2 -12 +19 2.4
203031 MLBTOR 100% 643560 15330016 72916 61 273362412775 139300 1411 342 120 +15 +1 -3 -11 +18 2.0
203132 MLBTOR 100% 630549 14729015 70926 51 268357403759 135296 1511 336 115 +11 +1 -4 -11 +18 1.5
203233 MLBTOR 100% 560488 12824013 62855 31 262351391743 129290 1511 327 109 +6 +0 -4 -10 +16 0.7
203334 MLBTOR 100% 512446 11220011 57814 20 251341370711 119282 1611 317 101 +0 +0 -5 -9 +15 0.1
203435 MLBTOR 100% 455398 951609 50754 10 239330347676 108273 1611 305 92 -4 +0 -6 -8 +13 -0.5
203536 MLBTOR 100% 394345 791307 43683 10 229320328647 99265 1711 293 82 -8 +0 -6 -7 +11 -1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career 96838499 23474548315 1036144685 7222 276360443803 166300 1511 354 129 +317 +6 -99 -162 +274 34.3
/ 162G 650571 15730121 70976 51 275361441802 166298 1511 354 129 +21 +1 -7 -11 +18 2.3
Career 111599825 272852713364 11451670102 10335 278359445804 167301 1510 352 128 +352 +7 -99 -187 +316 39.7
/ 162G 650572 15931121 67976 62 278360446805 168301 1510 352 128 +21 +0 -6 -11 +18 2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201617 ROKBluefield Blue Jays 276236 641238 33352 155 271365449814 178283 1312 357 131 +10 +1 +8 1.9
201718 A+Dunedin Blue Jays 209168 56716 36282 22 333456494950 161365 1317 420 179 +19 -0 +6 2.5
201718 ALansing Lugnuts 318269 852117 40345 62 316414480894 164336 1113 394 160 +22 +0 +9 3.2
201718 INTLLeones del Escogido 9890 19220 7131 20 211276278553 67247 137 255 53 -5 +0 +3 -0.2
201819 AAABuffalo Bisons 128110 37706 15101 00 336421564984 227323 812 425 183 +12 +0 +4 1.6
201819 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats 266234 9419114 21274 33 4024596711.130 269402 108 478 224 +37 -1 +8 4.5
201819 INTLSurprise Saguaros 8877 27700 861 21 351419442860 91370 79 380 149 +5 +0 +2 0.7
201920 MLBToronto Blue Jays 514464 12626215 46912 01 272340433773 162308 189 343 121 +12 -0 -14 +2 +15 1.4
201920 AAABuffalo Bisons 3430 11103 420 10 3674417001.141 333320 612 490 233 +5 +0 +1 0.6
201920 A+Dunedin Blue Jays 1715 4100 121 00 267353333686 67308 126 320 103 +0 +0 +0 0.1
202021 MLBToronto Blue Jays 243221 581329 20382 10 262329462791 199282 168 349 125 +7 +0 -3 -5 +7 0.6
202021 INTLLeones del Escogido 4239 14402 260 00 3593906151.006 256375 145 427 185 +4 +0 +1 0.5
202122 MLBToronto Blue Jays 698604 18829148 861106 41 3114026011.003 290312 1612 434 190 +71 +0 -9 -12 +20 7.1
202223 MLBToronto Blue Jays 706638 17535032 581166 83 274340480820 205289 168 360 134 +27 +0 -8 -13 +20 2.7
202324 MLBToronto Blue Jays 682602 15930026 671009 53 264347444790 179277 1510 351 127 +20 -0 -15 -12 +19 1.3
202425 MLBToronto Blue Jays 697616 19944130 72965 22 323398544942 221342 1410 411 173 +57 -0 -11 -12 +20 5.4
202526 MLBToronto Blue Jays 680589 17234023 81946 63 292383467850 175313 1412 377 147 +36 +0 -7 -12 +19 3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 42203734 10772116183 43064536 2613 288367495863 207306 1510 379 148 +231 +0 -67 -65 +120 22.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 18 projected seasons
1810,45734082278359445-190-19244.437.8
/162664225-12.0-12.22.8pk7: 31
#1Paul Konerkolast yr '14
career totals — 15 seasons, 8,694 PA
158,6944088280356490-133-12536.732.4
/162664311-10.2-9.52.8pk7: 28
#2Prince Fielderlast yr '16
career totals — 12 seasons, 6,853 PA
126,85331918283382506-122-14532.431.4
/162664312-11.9-14.13.1pk7: 30
#3Adrián Gonzálezlast yr '18
career totals — 14 seasons, 8,002 PA
148,0023166287358486-143-10232.129.7
/162664260-11.9-8.42.7pk7: 27
#4Anthony Rizzolast yr '24
career totals — 14 seasons, 7,336 PA
147,33630372261361467-131-7928.627.3
/162664277-11.9-7.12.6pk7: 26
#5Nick Markakislast yr '20
career totals — 15 seasons, 9,321 PA
159,32118966288357423-100-10428.525.0
/162664135-7.1-7.42.0pk7: 21
#6José Abreulast yr '24
career totals — 11 seasons, 6,220 PA
116,22026311283345488-111-10319.920.2
/162664281-11.9-11.02.1pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (OGILVIE) 27 64→66 68→72 43→39 58 269/357/387 118293 1411 13% 11% 111 +1.7
Austin Kearns
2008 · MLB
28 52→62 52→60 43→45 56 262/352/437 175301 195 19% 11% 128 +3.6 243/338/376 133292 145 20% 11% 107 +2.2 234/336/35011729312422%11%96+0.9
Hunter Pence
2010 · MLB
27 55→63 55→60 46→50 50 280/335/474 194312 2212 18% 8% 130 +3.8 281/336/461 180317 2111 18% 8% 127 +3.6 287/348/479192326231019%8%132+4.5
Juan Rivera
2005 · MLB
27 57→62 51→60 47→40 53 286/339/450 164300 188 12% 8% 125 +3.5 284/334/469 185293 234 12% 7% 128 +3.7 267/325/42816127820312%7%110+2.1
Ryan Zimmerman
2012 · MLB
27 57→60 54→65 47→45 56 291/365/479 187321 225 17% 10% 143 +4.7 279/346/463 184318 225 19% 9% 131 +3.9 277/345/46318631422419%9%125+3.0
Ty France
2022 · MLB
28 57→60 53→60 43→40 48 289/362/467 178328 202 18% 7% 140 +4.5 267/340/415 148304 162 17% 7% 118 +3.0 254/330/39213829215118%6%105+2.1
Yasiel Puig
2017 · MLB
26 55→63 53→60 45→55 50 276/341/457 181319 208 20% 8% 128 +3.6 270/337/483 213299 2815 19% 9% 134 +4.1 268/338/487219295291820%9%129+3.4
Wilmer Flores
2019 · MLB
27 51→55 53→60 43→40 50 263/315/438 175268 213 12% 6% 112 +2.6 278/332/467 189289 233 13% 7% 128 +3.6 265/343/46720227526015%9%129+3.1
Willson Contreras
2019 · MLB
27 53→62 52→60 45 52 262/344/436 174315 186 22% 10% 124 +3.4 253/343/448 195309 245 25% 10% 128 +3.6 262/360/47020832525526%10%136+3.1
Mitch Haniger
2018 · MLB
27 50→58 54→65 47→50 49 254/326/442 188300 219 23% 8% 118 +3.0 266/347/481 215319 258 24% 10% 137 +4.3 264/343/49723330730524%9%135+3.9
Michael Cuddyer
2006 · MLB
27 52→58 50→60 41→50 52 259/330/424 165300 176 20% 9% 115 +2.7 271/348/449 178315 186 19% 10% 128 +3.7 275/341/46218730121816%8%123+3.5
Nick Johnson
2006 · MLB
27 56→62 51→55 39→45 65 277/391/455 178314 177 17% 14% 147 +5.0 277/407/484 207311 208 16% 16% 161 +6.0 280/425/45617631916515%18%150+3.9
Stephen Piscotty
2018 · MLB
27 50→54 50→60 40→45 53 252/332/417 165299 176 22% 10% 114 +2.7 257/323/444 187298 225 21% 8% 118 +3.0 258/318/45019329624421%7%116+1.9
Billy Butler
2013 · MLB
27 61→66 55 43→30 54 311/376/501 190338 223 15% 9% 154 +5.4 287/355/433 146325 162 16% 9% 128 +3.6 275/347/40412931413016%9%109+2.5
Carlos Correa
2022 · MLB
27 52→60 55→60 46→55 56 267/349/455 187302 222 20% 11% 131 +3.9 268/347/446 178313 212 20% 10% 128 +3.6 269/350/44717831521020%10%124+2.9
Adrian Beltré
2007 · MLB
28 53→63 56→65 46→50 49 273/329/471 198293 247 17% 7% 127 +3.6 268/319/451 183292 2111 16% 7% 118 +3.0 313/369/50819532425112%7%142+5.0
Matt Murton
2008 · MLB
26 58→64 50 49→50 54 288/351/447 159314 177 14% 8% 129 +3.7 260/319/385 125297 1110 16% 7% 100 +1.7 265/316/36910430871016%6%92+0.8
Kevin Youkilis
2007 · MLB
28 56→61 48→65 42→45 62 271/374/428 156318 135 18% 13% 134 +4.1 291/387/488 197335 205 18% 12% 154 +5.5 298/397/51721834224518%12%160+6.0
Eugenio Suárez
2018 · MLB
27 49→52 53→65 43→50 53 250/334/422 172300 217 24% 10% 116 +2.8 259/348/494 235305 334 26% 11% 141 +4.5 256/348/51225629637227%11%140+3.7
Andre Ethier
2008 · MLB
26 58→63 49→60 39→45 52 285/348/445 160323 154 17% 8% 128 +3.6 286/362/490 204315 225 16% 10% 144 +4.8 289/369/50521731624516%10%143+4.9
Yandy Díaz
2020 · MLB
28 58→68 46→55 41→45 55 281/355/418 137333 124 19% 10% 123 +3.3 268/361/410 142303 144 15% 12% 124 +3.4 297/368/47317632621115%9%140+4.7