Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B Toronto Blue Jays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MLBTOR | 697 | .323/.398/.544 | 30 | 2 | 156 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBTOR | 680 | .292/.383/.467 | 23 | 6 | 136 | 2.5 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBTOR | 609 | .260/.335/.356 | 9 | 7 | 93 | -0.3 |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBTOR | 566 | .282/.353/.443 | 18 | 5 | 124 | 2.0 |
| 2028PROJ | 29 | MLBTOR | 614 | .279/.350/.436 | 19 | 4 | 122 | 1.8 |
| 2029PROJ | 30 | MLBTOR | 614 | .275/.346/.427 | 18 | 2 | 118 | 1.4 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 276 | 236 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 271 | 365 | 449 | 814 | 178 | 283 | 13 | 12 | 357 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 209 | 168 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 333 | 456 | 494 | 950 | 161 | 365 | 13 | 17 | 420 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 318 | 269 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 316 | 414 | 480 | 894 | 164 | 336 | 11 | 13 | 394 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 98 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 211 | 276 | 278 | 553 | 67 | 247 | 13 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 128 | 110 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 336 | 421 | 564 | 984 | 227 | 323 | 8 | 12 | 425 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 266 | 234 | 94 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 402 | 459 | 671 | 1.130 | 269 | 402 | 10 | 8 | 478 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 88 | 77 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 351 | 419 | 442 | 860 | 91 | 370 | 7 | 9 | 380 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 514 | 464 | 126 | 26 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 91 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 272 | 340 | 433 | 773 | 162 | 308 | 18 | 9 | 343 | 118 | +11 | -0 | -14 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 20 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 34 | 30 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 367 | 441 | 700 | 1.141 | 333 | 320 | 6 | 12 | 490 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 333 | 686 | 67 | 308 | 12 | 6 | 320 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 243 | 221 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 329 | 462 | 791 | 199 | 282 | 16 | 8 | 349 | 120 | +6 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2020 | 21 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 42 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 359 | 390 | 615 | 1.006 | 256 | 375 | 14 | 5 | 427 | 175 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 698 | 604 | 188 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 86 | 110 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 311 | 402 | 601 | 1.003 | 290 | 312 | 16 | 12 | 434 | 174 | +62 | +0 | -9 | -12 | +15 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 706 | 638 | 175 | 35 | 0 | 32 | 58 | 116 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 274 | 340 | 480 | 820 | 205 | 289 | 16 | 8 | 360 | 125 | +21 | +0 | -8 | -13 | +15 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 682 | 602 | 159 | 30 | 0 | 26 | 67 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 264 | 347 | 444 | 790 | 179 | 277 | 15 | 10 | 351 | 120 | +16 | -0 | -15 | -12 | +15 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 697 | 616 | 199 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 72 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 323 | 398 | 544 | 942 | 221 | 342 | 14 | 10 | 411 | 156 | +46 | -0 | -11 | -12 | +15 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 680 | 589 | 172 | 34 | 0 | 23 | 81 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 292 | 383 | 467 | 850 | 175 | 313 | 14 | 12 | 377 | 136 | +29 | +0 | -7 | -12 | +15 | 2.5 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 609 | 542 | 141 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 56 | 81 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 260 | 335 | 356 | 691 | 96 | 288 | 13 | 9 | 313 | 93 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -11 | +13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 4829 | 4276 | 1218 | 236 | 6 | 192 | 486 | 726 | 41 | 33 | 17 | 285 | 363 | 478 | 841 | 193 | 303 | 15 | 10 | 371 | 137 | +213 | -0 | -67 | -76 | +105 | 17.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 276 | 248 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 50 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 214 | 280 | 351 | 631 | 137 | 227 | 18 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 209 | 179 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 307 | 398 | 430 | 828 | 123 | 354 | 19 | 12 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 318 | 283 | 83 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 48 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 293 | 363 | 438 | 801 | 145 | 322 | 15 | 8 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 128 | 114 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 381 | 500 | 881 | 184 | 316 | 9 | 9 | 389 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 266 | 243 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 395 | 432 | 638 | 1.070 | 243 | 394 | 12 | 5 | 460 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 514 | 464 | 126 | 26 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 91 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 272 | 340 | 433 | 773 | 162 | 308 | 18 | 9 | 343 | 118 | +11 | -0 | -14 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 20 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 34 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 355 | 412 | 677 | 1.089 | 323 | 303 | 6 | 9 | 432 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 333 | 686 | 67 | 293 | 18 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 243 | 222 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 325 | 459 | 785 | 198 | 282 | 16 | 8 | 345 | 120 | +6 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 698 | 611 | 187 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 79 | 110 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 306 | 391 | 592 | 983 | 286 | 312 | 16 | 11 | 426 | 174 | +62 | +0 | -9 | -12 | +15 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 706 | 644 | 174 | 35 | 0 | 32 | 52 | 116 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 270 | 330 | 474 | 804 | 203 | 289 | 16 | 7 | 354 | 125 | +21 | +0 | -8 | -13 | +15 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 682 | 607 | 158 | 30 | 0 | 26 | 62 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 260 | 338 | 438 | 776 | 178 | 277 | 15 | 9 | 345 | 120 | +16 | -0 | -15 | -12 | +15 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 697 | 628 | 198 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 60 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 315 | 380 | 532 | 911 | 217 | 342 | 14 | 9 | 399 | 156 | +46 | -0 | -11 | -12 | +15 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 680 | 597 | 171 | 34 | 0 | 23 | 73 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 286 | 370 | 459 | 829 | 173 | 313 | 14 | 11 | 368 | 136 | +29 | +0 | -7 | -12 | +15 | 2.5 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 609 | 547 | 140 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 81 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 256 | 325 | 351 | 676 | 95 | 288 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -11 | +13 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 276 | 248 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 50 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 214 | 280 | 351 | 631 | 137 | 235 | 18 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 276 | 236 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 271 | 365 | 449 | 814 | 178 | 283 | 13 | 12 | 357 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 625 | 550 | 163 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 104 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 296 | 374 | 431 | 805 | 135 | 341 | 17 | 10 | 355 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 625 | 527 | 160 | 30 | 4 | 13 | 83 | 75 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 304 | 406 | 450 | 856 | 146 | 330 | 12 | 13 | 381 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 436 | 162 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 29 | 54 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 372 | 418 | 596 | 1.015 | 225 | 378 | 11 | 6 | 437 | 182 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 482 | 421 | 158 | 33 | 1 | 20 | 44 | 43 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 375 | 442 | 601 | 1.043 | 226 | 375 | 9 | 9 | 446 | 182 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 565 | 510 | 140 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 96 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 343 | 443 | 786 | 169 | 307 | 17 | 9 | 346 | 120 | +14 | -0 | -14 | +2 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2019 | 20 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 565 | 509 | 141 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 51 | 95 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 346 | 446 | 792 | 169 | 309 | 17 | 9 | 351 | 120 | +14 | -0 | -14 | +2 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 260 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 324 | 462 | 785 | 200 | 278 | 16 | 8 | 345 | 120 | +7 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 285 | 260 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 338 | 485 | 823 | 208 | 296 | 15 | 8 | 361 | 120 | +7 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 698 | 611 | 187 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 79 | 110 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 306 | 391 | 592 | 983 | 286 | 305 | 16 | 11 | 426 | 174 | +62 | +0 | -9 | -12 | +15 | 5.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 698 | 604 | 188 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 86 | 110 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 311 | 402 | 601 | 1.003 | 290 | 312 | 16 | 12 | 434 | 174 | +62 | +0 | -9 | -12 | +15 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 706 | 644 | 174 | 35 | 0 | 32 | 52 | 116 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 270 | 330 | 474 | 804 | 203 | 284 | 16 | 7 | 354 | 125 | +21 | +0 | -8 | -13 | +15 | 1.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 706 | 638 | 175 | 35 | 0 | 32 | 58 | 116 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 274 | 340 | 480 | 820 | 205 | 289 | 16 | 8 | 360 | 125 | +21 | +0 | -8 | -13 | +15 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 682 | 607 | 158 | 30 | 0 | 26 | 62 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 260 | 338 | 438 | 776 | 178 | 272 | 15 | 9 | 345 | 120 | +16 | -0 | -15 | -12 | +15 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 682 | 602 | 159 | 30 | 0 | 26 | 67 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 264 | 347 | 444 | 790 | 179 | 277 | 15 | 10 | 351 | 120 | +16 | -0 | -15 | -12 | +15 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 697 | 628 | 198 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 60 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 315 | 380 | 532 | 911 | 217 | 332 | 14 | 9 | 399 | 156 | +46 | -0 | -11 | -12 | +15 | 3.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 697 | 616 | 199 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 72 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 323 | 398 | 544 | 942 | 221 | 342 | 14 | 10 | 411 | 156 | +46 | -0 | -11 | -12 | +15 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 680 | 597 | 171 | 34 | 0 | 23 | 73 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 286 | 370 | 459 | 829 | 173 | 306 | 14 | 11 | 368 | 136 | +29 | +0 | -7 | -12 | +15 | 2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 680 | 589 | 172 | 34 | 0 | 23 | 81 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 292 | 383 | 467 | 850 | 175 | 313 | 14 | 12 | 377 | 136 | +29 | +0 | -7 | -12 | +15 | 2.5 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 609 | 547 | 140 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 81 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 256 | 325 | 351 | 676 | 95 | 283 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -11 | +13 | -0.3 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 609 | 542 | 141 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 56 | 81 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 260 | 335 | 356 | 691 | 96 | 288 | 13 | 9 | 313 | 93 | -5 | -0 | -0 | -11 | +13 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 276 | 251 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 50 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 211 | 280 | 347 | 627 | 135 | 227 | 18 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 625 | 552 | 163 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 104 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 295 | 374 | 429 | 803 | 134 | 335 | 17 | 10 | 355 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 444 | 162 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 29 | 54 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 365 | 418 | 586 | 1.004 | 221 | 369 | 11 | 6 | 437 | 182 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 565 | 507 | 140 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 96 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 343 | 446 | 789 | 170 | 308 | 17 | 9 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 259 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 324 | 463 | 787 | 201 | 282 | 16 | 8 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 698 | 608 | 187 | 29 | 1 | 48 | 79 | 110 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 308 | 391 | 595 | 986 | 288 | 312 | 16 | 11 | 426 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 706 | 642 | 174 | 35 | 0 | 32 | 52 | 116 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 271 | 330 | 475 | 806 | 204 | 289 | 16 | 7 | 354 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 682 | 606 | 158 | 30 | 0 | 26 | 62 | 100 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 261 | 338 | 439 | 777 | 178 | 277 | 15 | 9 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 697 | 627 | 198 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 60 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 316 | 380 | 533 | 912 | 217 | 342 | 14 | 9 | 399 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 680 | 596 | 171 | 34 | 0 | 23 | 73 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 287 | 370 | 460 | 830 | 173 | 313 | 14 | 11 | 368 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 609 | 548 | 140 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 81 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 255 | 325 | 350 | 675 | 95 | 288 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 697 | 627 | 198 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 60 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 316 | 380 | 533 | 912 | 217 | 342 | 14 | 9 | 399 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 680 | 596 | 171 | 34 | 0 | 23 | 73 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 287 | 370 | 460 | 830 | 173 | 313 | 14 | 11 | 368 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 609 | 548 | 140 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 81 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 255 | 325 | 350 | 675 | 95 | 288 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 620 | 554 | 155 | 30 | 0 | 19 | 56 | 86 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 281 | 352 | 442 | 795 | 161 | 301 | 14 | 9 | 352 | 124 | +18 | +0 | +1 | -11 | +13 | 2.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 566 | 505 | 142 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 51 | 78 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 282 | 353 | 443 | 796 | 161 | 302 | 14 | 9 | 353 | 124 | +16 | +0 | +1 | -10 | +12 | 2.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 614 | 549 | 153 | 29 | 0 | 19 | 55 | 87 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 278 | 349 | 435 | 784 | 157 | 299 | 14 | 9 | 348 | 122 | +16 | +0 | -1 | -11 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 614 | 549 | 151 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 55 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 345 | 426 | 771 | 151 | 296 | 14 | 9 | 343 | 118 | +13 | +0 | -1 | -11 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 601 | 539 | 145 | 27 | 0 | 17 | 53 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 269 | 339 | 415 | 754 | 146 | 293 | 15 | 9 | 336 | 113 | +10 | -0 | -2 | -11 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 578 | 519 | 137 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 332 | 401 | 732 | 138 | 287 | 15 | 9 | 327 | 107 | +5 | +0 | -3 | -10 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB MLE | TOR | 100% | 469 | 423 | 107 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 322 | 383 | 705 | 129 | 281 | 16 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -4 | -8 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 614 | 549 | 153 | 29 | 0 | 19 | 55 | 87 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 279 | 350 | 436 | 786 | 157 | 300 | 14 | 9 | 349 | 122 | +16 | +0 | -1 | -11 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 614 | 549 | 151 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 55 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 346 | 427 | 772 | 151 | 297 | 14 | 9 | 343 | 118 | +13 | +0 | -1 | -11 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 601 | 539 | 145 | 27 | 0 | 17 | 53 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 270 | 340 | 416 | 756 | 146 | 293 | 15 | 9 | 336 | 113 | +10 | -0 | -2 | -11 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 578 | 519 | 137 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 332 | 401 | 733 | 138 | 288 | 15 | 9 | 327 | 107 | +5 | +0 | -3 | -10 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB CTX | TOR | 100% | 469 | 423 | 108 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 323 | 383 | 706 | 129 | 281 | 16 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -4 | -8 | +10 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 7705 | 6855 | 1912 | 365 | 6 | 274 | 739 | 1153 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 279 | 354 | 454 | 808 | 175 | 300 | 15 | 10 | 358 | 127 | +257 | +0 | -77 | -127 | +167 | 22.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 162 | 31 | 1 | 23 | 62 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 280 | 354 | 457 | 811 | 176 | 302 | 15 | 10 | 358 | 127 | +22 | +0 | -6 | -11 | +14 | 1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 9747 | 8722 | 2449 | 466 | 11 | 339 | 863 | 1451 | 84 | 78 | 35 | 281 | 351 | 453 | 805 | 173 | 302 | 15 | 9 | 355 | 127 | +273 | +1 | -76 | -137 | +179 | 24.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 164 | 31 | 1 | 23 | 58 | 97 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 282 | 353 | 457 | 811 | 175 | 303 | 15 | 9 | 355 | 127 | +21 | +0 | -6 | -11 | +14 | 1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 34 PAwOBA .476 → .432 (−43)K% 5.9% → 7.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 7.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 24.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 3.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 9.45% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .476 → .432; ISO .333 → .300; BABIP .320 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 17 PAwOBA .312 → .280 (−32)K% 11.8% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.993 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.042 | 4.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.042 | 5.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 21.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.992 | ×0.960 | — | ×1.042 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.194 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 93, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .312 → .280; ISO .067 → .064; BABIP .308 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 266 PAwOBA .471 → .460 (−10)K% 10.2% → 12.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.15% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.02% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.99% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×1.050 | 29.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.18% | ÷0.980 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×1.050 | 8.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.086 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×1.050 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.76% | ÷0.945 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 117, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .471 → .460; ISO .269 → .250; BABIP .402 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 128 PAwOBA .420 → .389 (−31)K% 7.8% → 9.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.81% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 9.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.72% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.050 | 24.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.050 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 4.90% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .420 → .389; ISO .227 → .197; BABIP .323 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALansing Lugnuts · 318 PAwOBA .387 → .349 (−38)K% 10.7% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.69% | ÷0.960 | ×1.360 | — | — | 15.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.83% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 23.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.94% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.98% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .387 → .349; ISO .164 → .150; BABIP .336 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 209 PAwOBA .414 → .365 (−49)K% 13.4% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.40% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.75% | ÷1.118 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.050 | 11.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 29.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.940 | ×0.960 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.265 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .414 → .365; ISO .161 → .135; BABIP .365 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKBluefield Blue Jays · 276 PAwOBA .353 → .276 (−77)K% 12.7% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×1.038 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×1.038 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.959 | ×1.038 | 17.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.959 | ×1.038 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.959 | ×1.038 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.038 | 3.30% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 19.5 → +3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .353 → .276; ISO .178 → .142; BABIP .283 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .