Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

LF Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 33 R/R 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 8.547 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	MLBARI	553	.279/.325/.435	18	7	109	1.3
2025	31	MLBARI	546	.248/.300/.418	19	10	96	-0.1
2026	32	AAA/ROKARI	52	.159/.229/.182	0	0	-15	—	.134/.188/.157
2026	32	MLBARI	201	.210/.258/.290	2	1	49	-1.1
2027PROJ	33	MLBARI	279	.260/.309/.408	8	4	97	0.4
2028PROJ	34	MLBARI	230	.249/.297/.385	6	1	87	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.547First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA54

Bat Spd44

Barrel%38

Avg EV35

Speed22

CompsAdonis García (age 34) · Mike Kinkade (age 33) · Jantzen Witte (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 10397vR 81

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .309 / .408

PA279

HR8

K%18

BB%5

BABIP295

ISO151

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

560.256

POWER45

Barrel%

386.6

Avg EV

3588.0

Bat Spd

4470.7

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2226.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 1099 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

329

770

—

wRC+

134

◀◀L

wOBA

366

301

◀◀L

ISO

160

164

—

BABIP

339

260

◀◀L

13.4%

17.3%

◀◀L

BB%

6.7%

4.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.547 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.3	$1M	-$1M
Totals		$2M		$1M	-$1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$2.3M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $5.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	185	170	41	10	0	4	10	30	2	2	0	241	291	371	662	129	266	16	5	292	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	69	66	13	1	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	197	221	258	478	61	226	19	3	213	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	81	79	23	7	0	3	1	11	1	2	2	291	309	494	802	203	308	14	1	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	263	249	70	8	0	11	9	59	2	1	2	281	312	446	757	165	326	22	3	331	108	+2	-1	-3	+5	+6	1.0
2018	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	156	147	43	8	0	5	4	34	3	3	2	293	325	449	774	156	345	22	3	339	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	65	59	19	3	1	2	3	8	1	1	1	322	365	508	874	186	333	12	5	373	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	343	314	87	19	2	20	20	86	5	6	4	277	330	541	872	264	318	25	6	375	139	+16	-0	-3	-5	+7	1.5
2019	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	130	123	34	13	0	4	3	23	3	0	2	276	310	480	790	203	309	18	2	344	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	224	208	64	14	0	11	14	48	0	3	1	308	351	534	885	226	351	21	6	384	145	+12	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.4
2021	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	541	500	138	28	2	21	32	102	2	1	3	276	322	466	788	190	305	19	6	343	117	+11	-1	-4	-6	+12	1.2
2022	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	493	453	132	32	1	5	31	83	6	3	4	291	344	400	744	108	346	17	6	333	110	+6	-1	-4	-5	+11	0.7
2023	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	551	144	35	2	24	33	103	6	5	0	261	310	463	773	201	282	17	6	339	111	+8	+1	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2024	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	553	513	143	22	2	18	29	101	6	7	1	279	325	435	760	156	313	18	5	335	109	+6	+1	-0	-6	+12	1.3
2025	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	546	500	124	24	2	19	31	76	6	10	4	248	300	418	718	170	254	14	6	313	96	-3	+0	-4	-6	+12	-0.1
2026	32	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	201	186	39	9	0	2	10	38	2	1	0	210	258	290	548	81	248	19	5	246	49	-12	+0	-1	-3	+4	-1.1
2026	32	AAA	Reno Aces	—	33	28	3	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	107	194	107	301		143	27	9	146	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	19	16	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	250	294	312	607	62	333	32	5	247	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3756	3474	941	191	11	131	209	696	35	37	19	271	319	445	764	174	302	19	6	335	113	+57	-0	-18	-34	+81	8.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	185	173	36	8	0	3	7	36	2	2	0	208	247	306	554	98	238	19	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	69	67	11	1	0	1	1	18	0	1	0	164	176	224	400	60	209	26	1	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	263	250	70	8	0	11	8	59	2	1	2	280	308	444	752	164	326	22	3	328	108	+2	-1	-3	+5	+6	1.0
2018	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	156	148	39	7	0	4	3	41	3	3	2	264	292	392	684	128	328	26	2	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	65	60	19	3	1	2	2	9	1	1	1	317	349	500	849	183	311	14	3	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	343	314	87	19	2	20	20	86	5	6	4	277	330	541	872	264	318	25	6	374	139	+16	-0	-3	-5	+7	1.5
2019	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	130	124	29	11	0	3	2	28	3	0	2	234	264	395	659	161	269	22	2	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	224	208	64	14	0	11	14	48	0	3	1	308	351	534	885	226	351	21	6	383	145	+12	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.4
2021	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	541	501	138	28	2	21	31	102	2	1	3	275	320	465	785	190	305	19	6	341	117	+11	-1	-4	-6	+12	1.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	493	455	132	32	1	5	30	83	6	3	4	290	342	398	740	108	346	17	6	331	110	+6	-1	-4	-5	+11	0.7
2023	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	552	141	31	2	25	32	103	6	5	0	255	303	455	758	199	282	17	5	333	111	+8	+1	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	553	514	141	20	2	19	28	101	6	7	1	274	319	432	751	158	313	18	5	330	109	+6	+1	-0	-6	+12	1.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	546	500	122	21	2	20	31	76	6	10	4	244	296	414	710	170	254	14	6	310	96	-3	+0	-4	-6	+12	-0.1
2026	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	201	186	38	8	0	2	10	38	2	1	0	204	253	280	532	75	248	19	5	240	49	-12	+0	-1	-3	+4	-1.1
2026	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	33	29	3	0	0	0	2	11	0	0	0	103	161	103	265		126	33	6	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	19	16	3	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	248	47	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	335	317	62	12	0	4	11	72	3	5	2	196	230	271	501	76	237	21	3	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	335	315	77	18	0	8	13	54	3	5	2	244	281	378	659	133	268	16	4	290	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	484	458	127	17	1	17	13	109	6	5	5	277	306	430	736	153	325	23	3	319	102	+1	-1	-3	+5	+10	1.3
2018	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	484	455	132	19	1	18	16	101	6	5	5	290	323	455	778	165	333	21	3	339	102	+1	-1	-3	+5	+10	1.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	473	438	115	30	2	23	22	114	8	6	6	263	310	498	808	235	302	24	5	349	122	+12	-1	-3	-5	+10	1.3
2019	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	473	437	121	32	2	24	23	109	8	6	6	277	325	524	849	247	315	23	5	366	122	+12	-1	-3	-5	+10	1.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	224	208	64	14	0	11	14	48	0	3	1	308	351	534	885	226	351	21	6	383	145	+12	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.4
2020	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	224	208	64	14	0	11	14	48	0	3	1	308	351	534	885	226	351	21	6	384	145	+12	+0	-1	-2	+5	1.4
2021	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	541	501	138	28	2	21	31	102	2	1	3	275	320	465	785	190	305	19	6	341	117	+11	-1	-4	-6	+12	1.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	541	500	138	28	2	21	32	102	2	1	3	276	322	466	788	190	305	19	6	343	117	+11	-1	-4	-6	+12	1.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	493	455	132	32	1	5	30	83	6	3	4	290	342	398	740	108	344	17	6	331	110	+6	-1	-4	-5	+11	0.7
2022	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	493	453	132	32	1	5	31	83	6	3	4	291	344	400	744	108	346	17	6	333	110	+6	-1	-4	-5	+11	0.7
2023	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	552	141	31	2	25	32	103	6	5	0	255	303	455	758	199	272	17	5	333	111	+8	+1	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2023	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	551	144	35	2	24	33	103	6	5	0	261	310	463	773	201	282	17	6	339	111	+8	+1	+1	-6	+13	1.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	553	514	141	20	2	19	28	101	6	7	1	274	319	432	751	158	306	18	5	330	109	+6	+1	-0	-6	+12	1.3
2024	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	553	513	143	22	2	18	29	101	6	7	1	279	325	435	760	156	313	18	5	335	109	+6	+1	-0	-6	+12	1.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	546	500	122	21	2	20	31	76	6	10	4	244	296	414	710	170	247	14	6	310	96	-3	+0	-4	-6	+12	-0.1
2025	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	546	500	124	24	2	19	31	76	6	10	4	248	300	418	718	170	254	14	6	313	96	-3	+0	-4	-6	+12	-0.1
2026	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	253	231	44	9	0	2	13	57	2	1	0	190	240	255	495	65	235	23	5	221	36	-19	+0	-1	-3	+5	-1.7
2026	32	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	253	230	46	10	0	2	14	53	2	1	0	200	252	270	522	70	242	21	6	233	36	-19	+0	-1	-3	+5	-1.7
2017	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	335	318	62	12	0	4	11	72	3	5	2	195	230	270	500	75	230	21	3	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	484	462	127	17	1	17	13	109	6	5	5	275	306	426	732	152	325	23	3	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	473	440	115	30	2	23	22	114	8	6	6	261	310	495	805	234	304	24	5	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	224	208	64	14	0	11	14	48	0	3	1	308	351	534	885	226	351	21	6	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	541	503	138	28	2	21	31	102	2	1	3	274	320	463	783	189	305	19	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	493	454	132	32	1	5	30	83	6	3	4	291	342	399	741	108	346	17	6	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	549	141	31	2	25	32	103	6	5	0	257	303	457	761	200	282	17	5	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	553	514	141	20	2	19	28	101	6	7	1	274	319	432	751	158	313	18	5	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	546	504	122	21	2	20	31	76	6	10	4	242	296	411	707	169	254	14	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	253	236	44	9	0	2	13	57	2	1	0	186	240	250	490	64	232	23	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	553	514	141	20	2	19	28	101	6	7	1	274	319	432	751	158	313	18	5	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	546	504	122	21	2	20	31	76	6	10	4	242	296	411	707	169	254	14	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	253	236	44	9	0	2	13	57	2	1	0	186	240	250	490	64	232	23	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	386	358	90	16	1	11	21	71	4	5	2	255	304	400	704	146	286	18	5	312	97	-1	+0	+1	-4	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	279	259	67	13	1	8	15	51	3	4	1	260	309	408	717	148	295	18	5	317	97	-1	+0	+1	-3	+6	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	230	214	52	9	1	6	12	44	2	1	1	244	292	378	670	134	277	19	5	297	87	-3	-0	-4	-2	+5	-0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	230	214	54	10	1	6	12	44	2	1	1	249	297	385	682	136	285	19	5	302	87	-3	-0	-4	-2	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3986	3688	995	201	12	137	221	740	37	38	20	270	317	442	760	172	301	19	6	333	101	+53	-0	-22	-37	+86	8.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	162	33	2	22	36	121	6	6	3	270	317	441	758	171	302	19	6	333	101	+9	-0	-4	-6	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5003	4647	1204	235	14	161	252	960	50	51	28	259	304	420	724	161	292	19	5	317	101	+52	+0	-21	-40	+92	8.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	157	31	2	21	33	125	6	7	4	260	305	422	727	162	293	19	5	317	101	+8	+0	-3	-6	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 33 PAwOBA .152 → .123 (−29)K% 27.3% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.91%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.942	13.83%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.942	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .152 → .123; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .143 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 19 PAwOBA .269 → .189 (−80)K% 31.6% → 45.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.58%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	45.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	3.07%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	23.12%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	6.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (13.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .269 → .189; ISO .062 → .041; BABIP .333 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 130 PAwOBA .336 → .282 (−54)K% 17.7% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.69%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.31%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.018	1.70%
HBP% /PA	2.31%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.21%
Singles /BIP	17.00%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.959	×1.018	15.26%
Doubles /BIP	13.00%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.959	×1.018	11.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.909	×0.970	×0.959	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.42%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .336 → .282; ISO .203 → .167; BABIP .309 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 156 PAwOBA .333 → .294 (−39)K% 21.8% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.79%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.56%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.033	1.92%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.87%
Singles /BIP	26.55%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.993	×1.033	26.11%
Doubles /BIP	7.08%	÷0.987	×0.830	×0.993	×1.033	6.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.993	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.42%	÷1.080	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.56%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .333 → .294; ISO .156 → .124; BABIP .345 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 65 PAwOBA .374 → .343 (−31)K% 12.3% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.31%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.62%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.998	3.36%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.31%
Singles /BIP	25.49%	÷0.995	×0.970	×0.989	×0.998	24.53%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.980	×0.860	×0.989	×0.998	5.09%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.086	×0.950	×0.989	×0.998	1.69%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷0.945	×0.780	—	×0.998	3.23%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 117, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .374 → .343; ISO .186 → .162; BABIP .333 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 185 PAwOBA .289 → .241 (−47)K% 16.2% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.22%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	19.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.41%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.012	3.85%
HBP% /PA	1.08%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.93%
Singles /BIP	19.29%	÷1.024	×0.970	×0.972	×1.012	17.96%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.024	×0.860	×0.972	×1.012	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.972	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.165	×0.780	—	×1.012	1.94%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .289 → .241; ISO .129 → .096; BABIP .266 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 69 PAwOBA .210 → .172 (−39)K% 18.8% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.84%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	26.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.90%	÷1.118	×0.750	—	×0.988	1.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷1.002	×0.920	×1.015	×0.988	19.11%
Doubles /BIP	1.89%	÷0.940	×0.960	×1.015	×0.988	1.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.015	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷1.265	×0.880	—	×0.988	1.30%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .210 → .172; ISO .061 → .044; BABIP .226 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kevin Bass'82-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,291 PA	8.0	5,291	118	151	267*	321*	436*	-47	-11	14.8	15.8
/162	664	15	19	-5.9	-1.4	1.9	pk7: 17
#2Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	7.3	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
/162	664	20	8	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
#3Mel Hall'81-'96 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,575 PA	6.9	4,575	134	31	274*	318*	463*	-49	-2	12.7	12.8
/162	664	19	4	-7.2	-0.3	1.8	pk7: 13
#4Ryan Ludwicklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,938 PA	5.9	3,938	150	17	261	330	451	-42	-34	11.9	12.8
/162	664	25	3	-7.0	-5.8	2.0	pk7: 14
#5Dan Ford'75-'85 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,582 PA	6.9	4,582	121	61	266*	324*	459*	-36	-32	12.4	12.5
/162	664	18	9	-5.2	-4.7	1.8	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.4	4,265	145	42	269	313	440	-46	-24	11.9	11.8
/162	664	23	7	-7.1	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 12
#6Juan Riveralast yr '12 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,739 PA	5.6	3,739	130	17	274	324	443	-42	-22	9.5	10.4
/162	664	23	3	-7.5	-3.9	1.7	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OGILVIE)	33	55	45	50	40	252/301/397	145	286	8	4	18%	6%	97	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3
✕Mike Kinkade 2006 · MLB	33	47→57	48→45	44→45	44	237/310/384	147	270	15	8	18%	5%	97	+1.1	255/319/378	123	298	11	8	18%	5%	99	+1.3	276/337/388	112	320	9	7	16%	4%	105	+1.0
✕Jantzen Witte 2023 · AAA	33	50→54	49→45	46→45	45	251/299/392	141	297	17	7	22%	6%	94	+0.9	211/267/348	137	276	15	8	28%	7%	72	-0.7	191/248/324	133	248	15	6	29%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Darnell McDonald 2012 · MLB	33	49→55	51→55	49→55	47	250/307/418	168	296	18	12	22%	7%	103	+1.6	210/272/327	117	256	12	10	22%	7%	70	-0.9	186/247/276	90	230	8	9	22%	7%	47	-1.3
✕Chad Huffman 2018 · MLB	33	43→52	48→50	48→45	48	219/299/368	149	264	15	8	23%	8%	90	+0.6	223/295/372	149	284	17	6	27%	7%	88	+0.5	214/284/365	151	271	19	0	28%	7%	79	-0.1
✕J.C. Linares 2017 · AAA	32	48→53	47→50	51→40	48	237/306/379	142	286	14	9	22%	8%	94	+0.9	224/288/356	132	260	14	10	19%	8%	82	-0.0	201/271/326	125	212	16	3	14%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Mario Valenzuela 2010 · AAA	33	53→57	50→55	50→40	43	268/305/419	150	303	19	10	19%	4%	103	+1.5	261/311/427	166	299	21	6	20%	6%	107	+1.9	263/316/431	167	299	22	2	20%	6%	108	+1.1
✕Kevin Pillar 2022 · MLB	33	48→58	54→55	47→55	41	252/293/428	177	280	22	10	20%	4%	101	+1.4	239/290/418	179	271	22	11	21%	5%	97	+1.1	231/282/403	173	262	21	15	21%	5%	92	+0.3
✕Roberto Lopez 2019 · AAA	33	46→47	47→50	45	44	235/283/362	127	278	16	9	22%	6%	81	-0.1	221/272/328	107	264	13	8	21%	6%	70	-0.9	206/254/284	78	242	12	4	20%	5%	50	-1.3
✕Jolbert Cabrera 2007 · MLB	34	51→48	46→45	51→50	45	250/304/381	131	290	13	13	19%	6%	93	+0.8	229/273/353	124	271	11	8	19%	4%	76	-0.4	253/295/377	124	306	10	12	20%	4%	87	+0.2
✕Matt Szczur 2021 · MLB	32	46→56	48→45	44→55	48	233/294/379	146	281	16	8	23%	8%	89	+0.5	212/262/356	144	280	17	9	30%	6%	72	-0.7	137/170/266	130	167	18	0	32%	4%	15	-0.9
✕Izzy Alcantara 2006 · AAA	33	47	50→55	44→45	49	239/307/392	153	279	18	8	21%	8%	97	+1.1	231/303/388	157	273	19	7	22%	9%	95	+1.0	220/296/376	156	256	20	4	22%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Andy Ibáñez 2024 · MLB	31	50→56	49→50	48→45	48	249/302/400	151	280	16	6	18%	7%	97	+1.1	238/292/365	127	281	13	8	20%	6%	85	+0.2	228/279/331	103	270	11	8	19%	5%	72	-0.4
✕Raul Gonzalez 2006 · MLB	32	49→58	47→45	43→50	50	246/298/386	140	272	14	7	16%	7%	92	+0.7	246/298/357	111	281	10	6	16%	7%	85	+0.2	268/327/373	105	306	10	12	15%	7%	97	+0.5
✕Jose Castillo 2014 · AAA	33	55→57	49→50	50	44	274/302/417	143	287	17	11	12%	4%	101	+1.4	247/272/346	99	275	10	9	14%	3%	72	-0.7	242/264/313	71	273	7	7	14%	2%	59	-0.9
✕Jose Ruiz 2017 · AAA	32	51→59	50	46→45	47	257/305/404	148	283	18	9	17%	6%	99	+1.3	241/281/370	129	284	15	9	21%	5%	82	+0.0	239/271/351	111	287	14	6	22%	4%	72	-0.6
✕Victor Bojorquez 2007 · AAA	33	53→63	48→55	49→45	42	263/291/408	146	283	15	8	14%	3%	95	+0.9	287/312/425	138	322	11	6	14%	3%	106	+1.8	304/326/443	139	343	10	4	14%	2%	112	+1.6
✕Michael A. Taylor 2023 · MLB	32	50→54	46→55	46→60	45	248/305/370	122	314	15	10	25%	7%	91	+0.7	222/280/376	154	300	20	16	31%	7%	84	+0.1	201/260/365	164	275	21	20	34%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Abraham Valencia 2013 · AAA	33	48→50	47→45	42→45	43	241/295/372	131	268	16	4	17%	4%	88	+0.5	229/289/341	112	277	12	5	22%	5%	79	-0.2	219/282/309	91	272	10	3	22%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Hector Luna 2012 · MLB	32	47→49	50→55	49→50	47	242/295/391	149	273	18	8	19%	6%	93	+0.8	236/282/372	136	276	15	8	20%	6%	83	+0.1	237/275/366	129	275	14	3	19%	4%	77	-0.2

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps