Ty France

1B San Diego Padres

Age 33 R/R 5'10" / 215 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 7.517 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBCIN	535	.234/.308/.365	13	1	88	-2.0
2025	31	MLBTOR	490	.257/.322/.360	7	1	94	0.2
2026	32	MLBSD	500	.295/.368/.502	21	1	143	2.8
2027PROJ	33	MLBSD	376	.250/.322/.416	12	2	110	0.9
2028PROJ	34	MLBSD	317	.238/.310/.392	10	1	100	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.517First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV61

xwOBA60

Barrel%49

Bat Spd44

Speed10

Form.257/.330/.426 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .253/.323/.421

CompsWes Helms (age 32) · Marty Cordova (age 33) · Cyle Hankerd (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 112110vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .322 / .416

PA376

HR12

K%20

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO163

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

400.243

POWER

Barrel%

498.0

Avg EV

6189.9

Bat Spd

4470.7

SPEED

Sprint

1024.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%21%·21% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 21%

BB%7%·8% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.169·.172 over 93 AB (60d) · proj .168

HR/BB4.4%·4.1% over 73 BBE (60d) · proj 4.6%

BABIP.301▲.400 over 70 BIP (60d) · proj .292

SLASH.257/.330/.426·proj .253/.323/.421

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1050 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

275

775

—

wRC+

—

wOBA

303

—

ISO

133

115

◀L

BABIP

279

290

▶R

19.3%

18.7%

—

BB%

6.5%

5.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.0	$8M	-$0.4M
Totals		$8M		$8M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	22	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	256	224	68	16	0	9	15	47	12	3	4	304	378	496	874	192	343	18	6	381	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	281	219	52	8	0	5	44	49	16	3	3	237	401	342	744	105	283	17	16	350	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	402	363	100	20	1	5	22	68	15	1	0	275	343	377	720	102	325	17	5	326	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	131	111	32	4	2	0	7	16	12	1	0	288	392	360	753	72	333	12	5	348	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	110	94	27	8	0	5	13	19	2	0	0	287	385	532	917	245	310	17	12	399	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	479	415	109	22	2	17	33	70	25	3	4	263	353	448	801	186	276	15	7	354	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	201	184	43	8	1	7	9	49	7	0	2	234	295	402	697	168	279	24	4	310	98	-1	-1	-1	+2	+4	0.4
2019	25	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	348	296	118	27	1	27	30	51	18	1	0	399	483	770	1.253	372	410	15	9	528	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	155	141	43	9	1	4	11	37	3	0	0	305	368	468	836	163	390	24	7	372	140	+7	+0	-1	+1	+3	1.1
2021	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	650	571	166	32	1	18	46	106	27	0	0	291	371	445	816	154	327	16	7	363	134	+26	+0	-7	-12	+14	2.2
2022	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	613	551	151	27	1	20	35	94	21	0	0	274	340	436	776	162	296	15	6	344	119	+14	+0	-8	-11	+13	0.9
2023	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	665	587	147	32	0	12	43	117	34	1	0	250	337	366	704	116	294	18	6	322	106	+5	+0	-6	-12	+14	0.1
2024	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	535	479	112	24	0	13	38	114	13	1	1	234	308	365	673	132	277	21	7	302	88	-8	-0	-13	-10	+12	-2.0
2025	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	490	444	114	25	0	7	22	83	21	1	0	257	322	360	683	104	300	17	4	310	94	-3	+0	+3	-9	+11	0.2
2026	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	500	440	130	24	2	21	37	108	14	1	1	295	368	502	870	207	342	22	7	378	143	+26	-0	+0	-9	+11	2.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3809	3397	906	181	6	102	241	708	140	4	4	267	340	414	754	147	307	19	6	337	114	+65	-1	-32	-59	+83	5.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	256	229	58	12	0	9	10	62	12	3	4	253	319	424	742	170	292	24	4	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	281	233	44	6	0	5	30	68	16	3	3	189	323	279	602	90	234	24	11	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	402	369	90	17	1	4	16	83	15	1	0	244	302	328	630	84	299	21	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	131	113	26	3	1	0	5	22	12	1	0	230	331	274	605	44	283	17	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	110	97	22	6	0	4	10	25	2	0	0	227	312	412	724	186	255	23	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	479	426	95	17	2	17	22	85	25	3	4	223	300	392	692	169	231	18	5	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	201	184	44	9	1	7	9	49	7	0	2	239	300	413	713	174	279	24	4	313	98	-1	-1	-1	+2	+4	0.4
2019	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	348	306	97	20	1	23	20	68	18	1	0	317	392	614	1.007	297	333	20	6	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	155	141	43	9	1	4	11	37	3	0	0	305	368	468	836	163	390	24	7	375	140	+7	+0	-1	+1	+3	1.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	650	572	168	33	1	18	45	106	27	0	0	294	373	449	822	156	327	16	7	366	134	+26	+0	-7	-12	+14	2.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	613	555	153	27	1	21	32	94	21	0	0	276	339	441	780	166	296	15	5	344	119	+14	+0	-8	-11	+13	0.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	665	587	149	33	0	12	43	117	34	1	0	254	340	371	712	118	294	18	6	325	106	+5	+0	-6	-12	+14	0.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	535	479	111	24	0	12	38	114	13	1	1	232	306	357	663	125	277	21	7	298	88	-8	-0	-13	-10	+12	-2.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	490	445	114	25	0	7	21	83	21	1	0	256	320	360	680	103	300	17	4	308	94	-3	+0	+3	-9	+11	0.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	500	442	132	26	2	20	36	108	14	1	1	299	370	502	872	204	342	22	7	380	143	+26	-0	+0	-9	+11	2.8
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	537	462	102	18	0	13	40	130	28	6	7	221	321	344	665	123	275	24	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	537	443	120	24	0	14	59	96	28	6	7	271	391	420	810	149	314	18	11	365	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	533	482	116	20	2	4	21	105	27	2	0	241	309	315	625	75	298	20	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	533	474	132	24	3	5	29	84	27	2	0	278	355	373	728	95	327	16	5	331	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	589	524	117	23	2	21	31	110	27	3	4	223	301	395	696	172	241	19	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	589	509	136	30	2	22	46	89	27	3	4	267	359	464	823	196	282	15	8	363	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	490	140	29	2	29	29	117	25	1	2	286	357	531	887	245	318	21	5	384	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	549	480	161	35	2	34	39	100	25	1	2	335	414	629	1.043	294	362	18	7	448	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	155	141	43	9	1	4	11	37	3	0	0	305	368	468	836	163	390	24	7	375	140	+7	+0	-1	+1	+3	1.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	155	141	43	9	1	4	11	37	3	0	0	305	368	468	836	163	390	24	7	372	140	+7	+0	-1	+1	+3	1.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	650	572	168	33	1	18	45	106	27	0	0	294	373	449	822	156	330	16	7	366	134	+26	+0	-7	-12	+14	2.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	650	571	166	32	1	18	46	106	27	0	0	291	371	445	816	154	327	16	7	363	134	+26	+0	-7	-12	+14	2.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	613	555	153	27	1	21	32	94	21	0	0	276	339	441	780	166	297	15	5	344	119	+14	+0	-8	-11	+13	0.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	613	551	151	27	1	20	35	94	21	0	0	274	340	436	776	162	296	15	6	344	119	+14	+0	-8	-11	+13	0.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	665	587	149	33	0	12	43	117	34	1	0	254	340	371	712	118	298	18	6	325	106	+5	+0	-6	-12	+14	0.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	665	587	147	32	0	12	43	117	34	1	0	250	337	366	704	116	294	18	6	322	106	+5	+0	-6	-12	+14	0.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	535	479	111	24	0	12	38	114	13	1	1	232	306	357	663	125	277	21	7	298	88	-8	-0	-13	-10	+12	-2.0
2024	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	535	479	112	24	0	13	38	114	13	1	1	234	308	365	673	132	277	21	7	302	88	-8	-0	-13	-10	+12	-2.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	490	445	114	25	0	7	21	83	21	1	0	256	320	360	680	103	299	17	4	308	94	-3	+0	+3	-9	+11	0.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	490	444	114	25	0	7	22	83	21	1	0	257	322	360	683	104	300	17	4	310	94	-3	+0	+3	-9	+11	0.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	500	442	132	26	2	20	36	108	14	1	1	299	370	502	872	204	348	22	7	380	143	+26	-0	+0	-9	+11	2.8
2026	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	500	440	130	24	2	21	37	108	14	1	1	295	368	502	870	207	342	22	7	378	143	+26	-0	+0	-9	+11	2.8
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	537	464	102	18	0	13	40	130	28	6	7	220	321	343	663	123	262	24	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	533	480	116	20	2	4	21	105	27	2	0	242	309	317	626	75	295	20	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	589	526	117	23	2	21	31	110	27	3	4	222	301	394	694	171	235	19	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	490	140	29	2	29	29	117	25	1	2	286	357	531	887	245	313	21	5	384	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	155	140	43	9	1	4	11	37	3	0	0	307	368	471	839	164	390	24	7	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	650	573	168	33	1	18	45	106	27	0	0	293	373	449	821	155	327	16	7	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	613	555	153	27	1	21	32	94	21	0	0	276	339	441	780	166	296	15	5	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	665	583	149	33	0	12	43	117	34	1	0	256	340	374	714	118	294	18	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	535	479	111	24	0	12	38	114	13	1	1	232	306	357	663	125	277	21	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	490	445	114	25	0	7	21	83	21	1	0	256	320	360	680	103	300	17	4	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	500	446	132	26	2	20	36	108	14	1	1	296	370	498	868	202	342	22	7	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	535	479	111	24	0	12	38	114	13	1	1	232	306	357	663	125	277	21	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	490	445	114	25	0	7	21	83	21	1	0	256	320	360	680	103	300	17	4	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	500	446	132	26	2	20	36	108	14	1	1	296	370	498	868	202	342	22	7	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SD	100%	464	416	105	22	1	15	31	95	14	2	1	253	325	421	746	167	292	20	7	331	110	+6	+0	+4	-8	+10	1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	SD	100%	376	337	84	17	1	12	25	77	11	2	1	250	322	416	738	166	286	20	7	328	110	+5	+0	+3	-7	+8	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SD	100%	317	284	70	14	1	10	21	67	9	1	0	242	313	397	710	155	282	21	7	317	100	+0	+0	-2	-6	+7	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	SD	100%	317	284	68	13	1	10	21	67	9	1	0	238	310	392	702	154	276	21	7	314	100	+0	+0	-2	-6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4126	3681	974	194	7	112	262	775	149	5	4	265	338	412	751	148	305	19	6	335	109	+65	-1	-34	-65	+89	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	154	31	1	18	41	122	23	1	1	266	338	416	754	150	306	19	6	335	109	+10	-0	-5	-10	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6509	5800	1500	299	13	183	393	1265	260	19	16	259	334	409	743	151	299	19	6	329	109	+69	-1	-31	-72	+98	6.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	149	30	1	18	39	126	26	2	2	257	332	406	738	149	298	19	6	329	109	+10	-0	-4	-10	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 348 PAwOBA .518 → .425 (−94)K% 14.7% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.66%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷1.050	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.82%
HBP% /PA	5.17%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	5.24%
Singles /BIP	25.71%	÷1.033	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	21.98%
Doubles /BIP	11.02%	÷1.044	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	8.39%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.36%
Home runs /BIP	11.02%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×1.033	9.35%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .518 → .425; ISO .372 → .303; BABIP .410 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASan Antonio Missions · 479 PAwOBA .347 → .299 (−48)K% 14.6% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.61%	÷1.002	×1.220	—	—	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.47%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.012	4.47%
HBP% /PA	5.22%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	4.60%
Singles /BIP	19.71%	÷1.072	×0.920	×0.985	×1.012	16.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.38%	÷1.081	×0.840	×0.985	×1.012	4.94%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.031	×0.940	×0.985	×1.012	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	4.93%	÷0.824	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.84%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 116, 3B 106, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .347 → .299; ISO .186 → .173; BABIP .276 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 110 PAwOBA .392 → .310 (−82)K% 17.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.27%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.82%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.048	8.92%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.87%
Singles /BIP	18.67%	÷1.032	×0.900	×0.968	×1.048	16.52%
Doubles /BIP	10.67%	÷1.098	×0.810	×0.968	×1.048	7.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.968	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×1.048	5.22%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .392 → .310; ISO .245 → .184; BABIP .310 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASan Antonio Missions · 402 PAwOBA .319 → .279 (−40)K% 16.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.92%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.47%	÷0.994	×0.700	—	×1.027	3.96%
HBP% /PA	3.73%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	3.33%
Singles /BIP	25.08%	÷0.996	×0.920	×0.987	×1.027	23.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.78%	÷0.992	×0.840	×0.987	×1.027	5.82%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.987	×1.027	0.36%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷0.940	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.48%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .319 → .279; ISO .102 → .088; BABIP .325 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 131 PAwOBA .342 → .278 (−64)K% 12.2% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.21%	÷0.983	×1.340	—	—	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.34%	÷1.020	×0.710	—	×0.998	3.71%
HBP% /PA	9.16%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	7.22%
Singles /BIP	27.37%	÷1.050	×0.910	×0.999	×0.998	23.63%
Doubles /BIP	4.21%	÷0.990	×0.820	×0.999	×0.998	3.48%
Triples /BIP	2.11%	÷1.088	×0.760	×0.999	×0.998	1.47%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.921	×0.920	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .342 → .278; ISO .072 → .055; BABIP .333 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 281 PAwOBA .344 → .268 (−76)K% 17.4% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.44%	÷0.981	×1.360	—	—	24.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.66%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	—	10.47%
HBP% /PA	5.69%	—	×0.780	—	—	4.44%
Singles /BIP	22.94%	÷1.045	×0.920	×0.967	—	19.53%
Doubles /BIP	4.71%	÷1.124	×0.830	×0.967	—	3.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.967	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷0.888	×0.800	—	—	2.65%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 109, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .344 → .268; ISO .105 → .088; BABIP .283 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 256 PAwOBA .376 → .317 (−60)K% 18.4% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.36%	÷1.016	×1.340	—	—	24.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.86%	÷1.036	×0.710	—	×1.012	4.06%
HBP% /PA	4.69%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	3.75%
Singles /BIP	24.29%	÷0.999	×0.910	×0.956	×1.012	21.42%
Doubles /BIP	9.04%	÷1.036	×0.820	×0.956	×1.012	6.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.969	×0.760	×0.956	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.08%	÷0.925	×0.920	—	×1.012	5.12%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 100, 2B 107, 3B 94, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .376 → .317; ISO .192 → .173; BABIP .343 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Lindlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,029 PA	7.6	5,029	200	7	272	330	465	-76	-76	11.6	11.8
/162	664	26	1	-10.0	-10.1	1.5	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.8	4,502	124	7	265	335	415	-80	-62	10.3	10.3
/162	664	18	1	-11.9	-9.1	1.5	pk7: 10
#2Lyle Overbaylast yr '14 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,790 PA	8.7	5,790	151	19	266	348	429	-103	-102	8.8	10.3
/162	664	17	2	-11.9	-11.7	1.0	pk7: 12
#3Sean Casey'97-'08 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,644 PA	8.5	5,644	130	18	290*	352*	433*	-102	-82	8.5	9.4
/162	664	15	2	-12.0	-9.6	1.0	pk7: 10
#4Mike Ivie'71-'83 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,962 PA	4.5	2,962	81	22	262*	319*	451*	-46	-22	5.8	6.7
/162	664	18	5	-10.2	-4.9	1.3	pk7: 8
#5Greg Walker'82-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	113	19	257*	326*	467*	-59	-36	4.1	5.0
/162	664	24	4	-12.4	-7.5	0.9	pk7: 6
#6Yonder Alonsolast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,744 PA	5.6	3,744	100	22	260	333	405	-66	-62	1.3	2.0
/162	664	18	4	-11.7	-11.0	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ty France (OGILVIE)	33	—	—	—	—	251/323/417	166	292	12	2	21%	7%	110	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Wes Helms 2008 · MLB	32	54→49	49→55	37→30	47	265/322/425	160	311	15	3	20%	7%	110	+2.1	247/305/369	122	311	11	3	23%	7%	91	+0.7	242/304/351	110	314	9	1	24%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Marty Cordova 2002 · MLB	33	55→58	54→55	38→40	47	280/335/458	178	310	23	4	18%	6%	123	+3.0	258/327/436	178	298	21	5	20%	8%	115	+2.4	249/318/427	178	291	21	1	22%	9%	110	+1.8
✕Cyle Hankerd 2017 · AAA	32	47→49	50→60	41→45	45	239/318/395	155	284	17	4	22%	6%	103	+1.6	244/315/395	151	296	17	4	23%	6%	102	+1.5	247/317/400	153	300	17	1	23%	6%	102	+0.7
✕Daryle Ward 2007 · MLB	32	51→55	53→60	37→30	50	260/316/438	178	275	21	3	15%	7%	111	+2.1	250/318/415	165	286	18	4	19%	9%	107	+1.8	226/293/367	141	261	16	2	20%	8%	86	+0.1
✕Jesse Gutierrez 2011 · AAA	33	51→55	50→55	44→30	48	260/313/409	149	283	18	3	16%	6%	103	+1.6	252/307/411	159	279	19	3	17%	6%	102	+1.5	246/302/396	150	276	18	0	18%	6%	95	+0.5
●John Lindsey 2010 · AAA	33	45→51	51→60	41→30	43	231/294/389	158	278	19	2	24%	6%	93	+0.8	234/293/405	171	289	20	2	26%	5%	96	+1.0	237/298/429	192	289	24	0	26%	5%	101	+1.0
✕Aaron Guiel 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	52→60	37→45	50	235/313/404	169	268	19	6	20%	8%	103	+1.5	226/306/410	184	258	22	6	22%	8%	102	+1.5	218/301/405	187	246	23	4	22%	8%	99	+1.2
✕Troy O'Leary 2002 · MLB	32	49→53	51→50	39→30	49	248/305/418	170	272	17	3	17%	7%	102	+1.5	248/311/383	135	282	13	6	16%	8%	97	+1.1	251/319/357	106	287	9	5	15%	8%	94	+0.4
●Rondell White 2005 · MLB	33	52→62	54→60	37→40	48	268/324/447	179	286	22	3	16%	6%	116	+2.5	265/307/419	154	287	17	3	14%	5%	103	+1.6	261/297/401	140	283	15	1	14%	4%	96	+0.5
✕Ty Wigginton 2011 · MLB	33	50→55	51→60	37→50	49	255/311/413	159	277	19	2	16%	7%	104	+1.6	233/300/377	144	270	17	6	20%	8%	92	+0.7	226/299/370	144	262	18	7	20%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Randy Ruiz 2010 · MLB	32	50→54	54→60	41→40	40	255/305/439	185	318	22	2	27%	5%	108	+1.9	246/297/430	184	309	23	7	27%	6%	103	+1.5	246/288/398	152	316	22	4	29%	5%	90	+0.3
✕Emmanuel Valdez 2011 · AAA	32	49→51	48→50	37→40	52	243/325/388	145	298	16	3	23%	10%	103	+1.6	224/296/367	143	297	17	4	29%	8%	88	+0.4	198/283/349	151	275	19	4	33%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Jesus Valdez 2017 · AAA	32	52→61	50→55	42→45	43	266/302/419	153	296	19	5	18%	4%	102	+1.5	263/302/419	156	289	19	5	16%	5%	102	+1.5	267/304/422	155	288	19	3	15%	4%	100	+0.9
✕Mario Valenzuela 2009 · AAA	32	49→57	51→55	42→40	42	255/294/402	148	288	20	5	20%	4%	95	+1.0	262/308/424	162	300	21	8	20%	6%	105	+1.7	263/316/431	167	299	22	2	20%	6%	108	+1.1
✕Amaury Cazana 2012 · AAA	33	55→59	46→50	35→45	45	267/318/389	121	337	14	3	24%	7%	100	+1.3	259/296/399	140	323	17	4	25%	5%	95	+0.9	261/292/415	154	314	20	2	24%	4%	98	+0.8
●Michel Abreu 2012 · AAA	33	52→62	52→55	43→30	49	264/321/431	167	295	21	2	18%	7%	112	+2.2	275/342/457	182	319	23	4	20%	9%	125	+3.2	293/364/485	192	339	25	0	20%	9%	141	+3.2
✕Luis Alfonso Garcia 2011 · AAA	32	51→54	51→55	44→40	53	259/330/419	160	289	20	4	18%	9%	112	+2.2	248/314/400	152	285	19	4	20%	8%	102	+1.5	229/291/385	156	255	22	1	20%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Kyle Farmer 2024 · MLB	33	50→54	48→50	39→45	45	253/313/396	143	294	16	5	20%	6%	101	+1.4	228/290/358	130	274	14	5	21%	6%	83	+0.1	209/269/317	108	252	11	3	21%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	41→44	54→60	40→45	51	221/297/399	178	253	23	4	23%	9%	96	+1.0	192/258/324	132	234	15	4	25%	8%	64	-1.3	155/214/261	106	191	12	0	26%	6%	32	-2.7
✕Craig Monroe 2008 · MLB	31	46→56	54→60	37→45	45	242/290/423	180	277	22	4	22%	6%	99	+1.2	228/288/402	174	274	22	4	25%	7%	93	+0.8	201/268/403	201	232	27	0	27%	8%	87	+0.1

Ty France

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps