Taylor Ward

LF Seattle Mariners
Age 33 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 6.953 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202430MLBLAA663.246/.327/.4262561111.8
202531MLBLAA663.228/.320/.4753641202.0
202632MLBSEA607.225/.361/.311741000.5
2027PROJ33MLBSEA504.235/.350/.3851451131.7
2028PROJ34MLBSEA446.224/.338/.3611111040.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service6.953First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$14M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA75
Barrel%67
Avg EV62
Speed50
Bat Spd20
Form.223/.337/.351 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .237/.349/.391
CompsA.J. Ellis (age 33) · Francisco Cervelli (age 33) · Francisco Mendez (age 33)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 118113vR 99
AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .350 / .385
PA504
HR14
SB5
K%23
BB%14
BABIP287
ISO149
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +7.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+8BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +3.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+3FLDPOS: -5.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-5POSREP: +10.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+11REPTotal WAR: +1.80+1.8WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
1.80.42728
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
350.239
POWER
Barrel%
6710.8
Avg EV
6289.9
Bat Spd
2068.1
SPEED
Sprint
5027.5
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%25%▼▼30% over 37 PA (60d) · proj 23%
BB%14%·14% over 37 PA (60d) · proj 14%
ISO.128▼.000 over 32 AB (60d) · proj .153
BABIP.288·.238 over 21 BIP (60d) · proj .289
SLASH.223/.337/.351▼▼proj .237/.349/.391
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1454 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
270
1184
—
wRC+
151
110
◀◀L
wOBA
391
331
◀◀L
ISO
239
201
◀◀L
BABIP
352
268
◀◀L
K%
22.6%
25.0%
◀L
BB%
9.3%
11.1%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   6.953 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$14M+1.8$14M+$0.5M
Totals $14M $14M +$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201521 ABurlington Bees — 10392 32301 10150 11 348412413825 65408 1510 371 81 — — — — — —
201521 ROKOrem Owlz — 141109 38412 2982 52 349493459952 110360 621 430 107 — — — — — —
201622 A+Inland Empire 66ers — 529466 11611010 48815 00 249326337663 88279 159 299 62 — — — — — —
201622 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 5753 15500 3130 01 283316377693 94375 235 308 95 — — — — — —
201723 AAMobile BayBears — 145119 34303 22172 00 286406387792 101307 1215 360 93 — — — — — —
201723 A+Inland Empire 66ers — 247207 501116 35430 00 242351391743 150275 1714 330 72 — — — — — —
201824 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 147135 24306 9453 20 178245333578 156214 316 261 63 -7 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.3
201824 AAASalt Lake Bees — 267227 801808 36612 102 352445537983 185450 2313 432 116 — — — — — —
201824 AAMobile BayBears — 179148 51806 29331 81 345455520975 176409 1816 431 123 — — — — — —
201925 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 4842 8301 6230 00 190292333625 143389 4812 286 82 -1 +0 -4 -7 +1 -1.1
201925 AAASalt Lake Bees — 512421 12934127 801019 115 3064275841.011 278347 2016 439 111 — — — — — —
201925 INTLLeones del Escogido — 5352 10400 0191 00 192208269477 77303 360 213 30 — — — — — —
202026 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 10294 26620 8280 20 277333383716 106394 278 322 106 +1 +0 -3 -1 +2 -0.1
202127 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 237208 521508 20556 11 250333438771 188301 238 340 117 +5 -0 -2 -3 +5 0.5
202127 AAASalt Lake Bees — 5949 21904 9121 20 4295258571.383 429515 2015 579 196 — — — — — —
202228 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 564495 13922223 601204 53 281363473836 192325 2111 368 135 +24 -0 -1 -6 +12 2.9
202329 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 409356 9018014 39808 42 253340421761 169284 2010 337 115 +7 +0 -0 -4 +9 1.1
202430 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 663585 14426225 631637 64 246327426752 179294 2510 332 111 +9 -0 +2 -7 +14 1.8
202531 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 663579 13231236 751753 41 228320475795 247257 2611 346 120 +16 +0 -3 -7 +14 2.0
202632 MLBSeattle Mariners — 607498 1122017 991307 44 225361311672 86288 2116 316 100 +0 -1 -1 -7 +13 0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 34402992 7271449120 37981938 2815 243336417753 174292 2411 335 113 +53 -0 -16 -40 +75 7.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201521 A MLEBurlington Bees — 10395 27301 7200 11 284333347681 63341 197 288 81 — — — — — —
201521 ROK MLEOrem Owlz — 141121 34312 17122 52 281379372750 91287 912 327 107 — — — — — —
201622 A+ MLEInland Empire 66ers — 529481 1089010 331075 00 225281306587 81259 206 260 62 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLEMobile BayBears — 145126 31203 15212 00 246336333669 87271 1410 306 93 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLEInland Empire 66ers — 247218 461015 24590 00 211289335624 124253 2410 275 72 — — — — — —
201824 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 147135 24306 9453 20 178245333578 156214 316 261 63 -7 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.3
201824 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 267239 671407 24782 102 280351427778 146381 299 339 116 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMobile BayBears — 179159 45705 18401 81 283360421781 138349 2210 350 123 — — — — — —
201925 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 4842 8301 6230 00 190292333625 143389 4812 289 82 -1 +0 -4 -7 +1 -1.1
201925 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 512444 10325120 581299 115 232333428761 196279 2511 332 111 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 10294 26620 8280 20 277333383716 106394 278 325 106 +1 +0 -3 -1 +2 -0.1
202127 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 237208 531608 20556 11 255338447785 192301 238 342 117 +5 -0 -2 -3 +5 0.5
202127 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 5953 18803 5151 20 3404076601.067 321429 258 458 196 — — — — — —
202228 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 564495 14023223 601204 53 283365477842 194325 2111 368 135 +24 -0 -1 -6 +12 2.9
202329 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 409356 9119014 39808 42 256342427769 171284 2010 338 115 +7 +0 -0 -4 +9 1.1
202430 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663585 14527225 631637 64 248328429757 181294 2510 333 111 +9 -0 +2 -7 +14 1.8
202531 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663580 13232235 741753 41 228318471789 243257 2611 345 120 +16 +0 -3 -7 +14 2.0
202632 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 607500 1122017 971307 44 224358310668 86288 2116 316 100 +0 -1 -1 -7 +13 0.5
201521 ROK MLE2 teams — 244216 60612 24312 63 278355343698 65315 1310 311 96 — — — — — —
201521 ROK RAW2 teams — 244201 70713 39232 63 348459438896 90381 916 405 96 — — — — — —
201622 A+ MLE2 teams — 586534 12110012 371195 01 227283313596 86267 206 260 62 — — — — — —
201622 A+ RAW2 teams — 586519 13116010 51945 01 252325341666 89288 169 300 62 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLE2 teams — 392343 771218 40802 00 224309335644 111266 2010 286 80 — — — — — —
201723 A+ RAW2 teams — 392326 841419 57602 00 258371390761 132287 1515 341 80 — — — — — —
201824 AAA MLE3 teams — 593533 13624018 511636 203 255327402729 146332 279 323 105 — — — — — —
201824 AAA RAW3 teams — 593510 15529020 741396 203 304398478877 175381 2312 389 105 — — — — — —
201925 AAA MLE3 teams — 613532 12231123 7016610 115 229330421751 192288 2711 328 108 — — — — — —
201925 AAA RAW3 teams — 613515 14741128 8614310 115 285397532929 247345 2314 407 108 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 10294 26620 8280 20 277333383716 106394 278 325 106 +1 +0 -3 -1 +2 -0.1
202026 MLB RAWLos Angeles Angels — 10294 26620 8280 20 277333383716 106394 278 322 106 +1 +0 -3 -1 +2 -0.1
202127 MLB MLE2 teams — 296261 7023011 25707 31 268348483831 215326 248 365 133 +12 +0 -2 -3 +6 1.3
202127 MLB RAW2 teams — 296257 7324012 29677 31 284372518890 233341 2310 387 133 +12 +0 -2 -3 +6 1.3
202228 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 564495 14023223 601204 53 283365477842 194328 2111 368 135 +24 -0 -1 -6 +12 2.9
202228 MLB RAWLos Angeles Angels — 564495 13922223 601204 53 281363473836 192325 2111 368 135 +24 -0 -1 -6 +12 2.9
202329 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 409356 9119014 39808 42 256342427769 171287 2010 338 115 +7 +0 -0 -4 +9 1.1
202329 MLB RAWLos Angeles Angels — 409356 9018014 39808 42 253340421761 169284 2010 337 115 +7 +0 -0 -4 +9 1.1
202430 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663585 14527225 631637 64 248328429757 181296 2510 333 111 +9 -0 +2 -7 +14 1.8
202430 MLB RAWLos Angeles Angels — 663585 14426225 631637 64 246327426752 179294 2510 332 111 +9 -0 +2 -7 +14 1.8
202531 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663580 13232235 741753 41 228318471789 243258 2611 345 120 +16 +0 -3 -7 +14 2.0
202531 MLB RAWLos Angeles Angels — 663579 13231236 751753 41 228320475795 247257 2611 346 120 +16 +0 -3 -7 +14 2.0
202632 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 607500 1122017 971307 44 224358310668 86287 2116 316 100 +0 -1 -1 -7 +13 0.5
202632 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 607498 1122017 991307 44 225361311672 86288 2116 316 100 +0 -1 -1 -7 +13 0.5
201521 ROK MLE2 teams — 244216 60612 24312 63 278355343698 65310 1310 311 96 — — — — — —
201622 A+ MLE2 teams — 586539 12110012 371195 01 224283310593 85259 206 260 62 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLE2 teams — 392347 771218 40802 00 222309331641 110260 2010 286 80 — — — — — —
201824 AAA MLE3 teams — 593531 13624018 511636 203 256327403730 147330 279 323 105 — — — — — —
201925 AAA MLE3 teams — 613528 12231123 7016610 115 231330424754 193288 2711 328 108 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 10293 26620 8280 20 280333387720 108394 278 325 106 — — — — — —
202127 MLB MLE2 teams — 296262 7023011 25707 31 267348481829 214327 248 365 133 — — — — — —
202228 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 564495 14023223 601204 53 283365477842 194325 2111 368 135 — — — — — —
202329 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 409359 9119014 39808 42 253342423766 170284 2010 338 115 — — — — — —
202430 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663588 14527225 631637 64 247328427755 180294 2510 333 111 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663581 13232235 741753 41 227318470788 243257 2611 345 120 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 607498 1122017 971307 44 225358311669 86288 2116 316 100 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202430 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663588 14527225 631637 64 247328427755 180294 2510 333 111 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 663581 13232235 741753 41 227318470788 243257 2611 345 120 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 607498 1122017 971307 44 225358311669 86288 2116 316 100 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202733 MLB MLESEA 100% 570480 11422216 791306 51 238352391743 153289 2314 335 113 +9 +1 +3 -6 +12 1.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202733 MLB CTXSEA 100% 504424 9919114 701155 51 235350385735 150287 2314 332 113 +8 +1 +3 -5 +11 1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202834 MLB MLESEA 100% 446378 8616112 611054 11 226340366707 140279 2414 321 104 +2 -0 -2 -5 +10 0.4
202834 MLB CTXSEA 100% 446378 8416111 611054 11 224338361699 137276 2414 319 104 +2 -0 -2 -5 +10 0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 38863370 81116010131 44092442 2916 241336411746 170290 2411 333 106 +54 -1 -18 -45 +84 7.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650564 13627222 741557 53 241337413750 172291 2411 333 106 +9 -0 -3 -7 +14 1.3
Career— MLE — 66825831 141926914204 719154570 7129 243334399733 156294 2311 325 106 +62 +0 -15 -50 +95 9.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650567 13826120 701507 73 243334399732 155294 2311 325 106 +9 +0 -2 -7 +14 1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 59 PAwOBA .560 → .458 (−102)K% 20.3% → 24.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.34%÷0.982×1.200——24.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.56%÷1.090×0.690—×0.9928.52%
HBP% /PA1.69%—×0.940—×0.9921.58%
Singles /BIP21.62%÷1.032×0.930—×0.99219.33%
Doubles /BIP24.32%÷1.002×0.830—×0.99219.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP10.81%÷0.907×0.700—×0.9928.28%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .560 → .458; ISO .429 → .351; BABIP .515 → .429. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 512 PAwOBA .427 → .332 (−96)K% 19.7% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.73%÷1.009×1.290——25.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.43%÷0.980×0.710—×1.01811.38%
HBP% /PA1.76%—×0.980—×1.0181.75%
Singles /BIP20.94%÷1.007×0.900×0.950×1.01818.10%
Doubles /BIP10.62%÷1.062×0.810×0.950×1.0187.84%
Triples /BIP0.31%÷0.900×0.810×0.950×1.0180.27%
Home runs /BIP8.44%÷1.059×0.780—×1.0186.33%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .427 → .332; ISO .278 → .205; BABIP .347 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 267 PAwOBA .423 → .339 (−84)K% 22.8% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.85%÷1.003×1.290——29.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.11%÷1.068×0.710—×1.0339.00%
HBP% /PA0.75%—×0.980—×1.0330.76%
Singles /BIP32.53%÷1.064×0.900×0.999×1.03328.39%
Doubles /BIP10.84%÷1.045×0.810×0.999×1.0338.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.969×0.810×0.999×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP4.82%÷0.958×0.780—×1.0334.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 113, 2B 109, 3B 94, K 101, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .423 → .339; ISO .185 → .149; BABIP .450 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMobile BayBears · 179 PAwOBA .421 → .350 (−72)K% 18.4% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.44%÷1.012×1.220——22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.64%÷1.040×0.680—×0.99810.20%
HBP% /PA0.56%—×0.840—×0.9980.47%
Singles /BIP32.17%÷1.021×0.920×0.958×0.99827.71%
Doubles /BIP6.96%÷1.014×0.910×0.958×0.9985.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.944×0.880×0.958×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP5.22%÷0.959×0.800—×0.9984.34%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .421 → .350; ISO .176 → .154; BABIP .409 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 247 PAwOBA .325 → .275 (−50)K% 17.4% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.41%÷0.975×1.340——23.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.17%÷1.003×0.710—×0.9889.91%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP19.51%÷0.955×0.910×0.997×0.98818.31%
Doubles /BIP6.71%÷0.891×0.820×0.997×0.9886.08%
Triples /BIP0.61%÷1.150×0.760×0.997×0.9880.40%
Home runs /BIP3.66%÷1.008×0.920—×0.9883.30%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 91, 2B 78, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .325 → .275; ISO .150 → .132; BABIP .275 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMobile BayBears · 145 PAwOBA .357 → .306 (−51)K% 11.7% → 14.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.72%÷0.998×1.220——14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.17%÷0.986×0.680—×1.01210.59%
HBP% /PA1.38%—×0.840—×1.0121.17%
Singles /BIP27.45%÷1.018×0.920×0.983×1.01224.68%
Doubles /BIP2.94%÷1.204×0.910×0.983×1.0122.21%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.930×0.880×0.983×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷0.896×0.800—×1.0122.66%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 104, 2B 141, 3B 86, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .357 → .306; ISO .101 → .092; BABIP .307 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 529 PAwOBA .293 → .260 (−33)K% 15.3% → 20.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.31%÷1.009×1.340——20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.88%÷0.998×0.710—×0.9986.31%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.790—×0.9980.75%
Singles /BIP24.68%÷0.968×0.910×1.003×0.99823.22%
Doubles /BIP2.86%÷1.034×0.820×1.003×0.9982.27%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.760×1.003×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP2.60%÷0.873×0.920—×0.9982.73%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 94, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .293 → .260; ISO .088 → .086; BABIP .279 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKOrem Owlz · 141 PAwOBA .422 → .327 (−95)K% 5.7% → 8.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA5.67%÷1.000×1.440——8.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.86%÷1.000×0.610—×0.97511.81%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.720—×0.9751.00%
Singles /BIP30.69%÷1.000×0.820×1.018×0.97524.98%
Doubles /BIP3.96%÷1.000×0.720×1.018×0.9752.83%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷1.000×0.720×1.018×0.9750.71%
Home runs /BIP1.98%÷1.000×0.750—×0.9751.45%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .422 → .327; ISO .110 → .088; BABIP .360 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .