Yainer Diaz — OGILVIE

Yainer DiazC Houston Astros

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 3.203 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION174 act + 346 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 115111vR 101

AVG/OBP/SLG.277 / .309 / .445

PA346

HR12

K%17

BB%4

BABIP304

ISO168

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

4611.4%

xwOBA

680.330

POWER50

Barrel%

508.2

Avg EV

5989.8

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE25

Chase%

1040.7%

SPEED50

Sprint

1625.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1266 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

314

952

—

wRC+

110

◀L

wOBA

329

310

◀L

ISO

160

145

◀L

BABIP

309

301

—

17.8%

16.5%

▶R

BB%

4.1%

3.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.6	$19M	+$12M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$16M	+$7M
Totals		$22M		$39M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Indians	—	162	154	36	6	1	1	2	26	4	0	1	234	263	305	568	71	271	16	1	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	DSL Indians	—	162	153	45	8	1	1	3	18	4	0	1	294	325	379	704	85	324	11	2	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	AZL Indians 2	—	164	158	44	6	3	2	4	26	1	1	0	278	301	392	693	114	323	16	2	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	AZL Indians 2	—	164	155	55	9	4	2	7	18	1	1	0	355	387	503	890	148	393	11	4	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	88	84	29	4	0	4	2	12	1	0	0	345	368	536	904	190	362	14	2	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	88	82	37	6	0	5	4	8	1	0	0	451	483	707	1.190	256	457	9	5	513	251	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	3 teams	—	462	437	118	20	1	12	18	97	3	4	1	270	303	403	706	133	319	21	4	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	3 teams	—	462	429	136	29	1	17	26	78	3	4	1	317	360	508	868	191	352	17	6	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	3 teams	—	524	491	132	21	4	23	24	118	4	2	0	269	308	468	777	200	307	23	5	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	3 teams	—	524	480	139	22	4	25	35	85	4	2	0	290	343	508	851	219	304	16	7	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	377	355	97	21	0	22	11	74	5	0	0	273	305	518	823	245	283	20	3	348	125	+11	+0	+5	+7	+11	3.4
2023	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	377	355	100	22	0	23	11	74	5	0	0	282	313	538	851	256	292	20	3	364	137	+16	+0	+5	+7	+11	3.9
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	619	585	172	28	3	15	24	107	2	2	0	294	324	429	753	135	333	17	4	325	107	+5	+0	+3	+11	+18	3.7
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	619	585	175	29	3	16	24	107	2	2	0	299	329	441	770	142	338	17	4	337	116	+11	+0	+3	+11	+18	4.4
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	591	564	142	25	1	20	21	99	2	1	1	252	281	406	687	154	272	17	4	295	84	-11	-0	+6	+11	+17	2.3
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	591	564	146	26	1	21	21	100	2	1	1	259	288	420	708	161	280	17	4	311	96	-3	-0	+6	+11	+17	3.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	HOU	—	174	165	41	9	0	6	6	27	1	0	1	248	279	412	691	164	261	16	3	298	87	-3	-0	-1	+3	+5	0.4
YTD	27	MLB	HOU	—	174	165	41	9	0	6	6	27	1	0	1	248	279	412	691	164	261	16	3	302	89	-2	-0	-1	+3	+5	0.5
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	100%	346	328	91	17	1	12	13	58	2	1	1	277	309	445	754	168	302	17	4	326	108	+3	-0	-1	+6	+10	1.8
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	100%	346	328	92	18	1	12	13	58	2	1	1	280	312	451	763	171	305	17	4	327	108	+3	-0	-1	+6	+10	1.8
FULL	27	MLB	HOU	—	520	493	133	27	1	18	19	85	3	1	2	270	301	438	739	168	292	16	4	317	101	+1	-1	-2	+9	+15	2.2
TOT	27	MLB	HOU	—	520	493	132	26	1	18	19	85	3	1	2	268	299	434	733	166	289	16	4	317	101	+0	-1	-2	+9	+15	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	HOU	100%	520	494	136	26	1	17	19	89	2	1	1	275	305	435	740	160	305	17	4	328	109	+5	-0	-3	+9	+15	2.7
2028	29	MLB	HOU	100%	520	493	136	26	1	17	20	90	2	1	1	276	307	436	743	160	304	17	4	326	107	+4	-0	-4	+9	+15	2.5
2029	30	MLB	HOU	100%	520	493	135	25	1	17	20	91	2	1	1	274	305	432	737	158	303	18	4	323	105	+3	-0	-4	+9	+15	2.3
2030	31	MLB	HOU	100%	504	478	129	24	1	16	19	90	2	1	1	270	301	425	725	155	300	18	4	318	102	+1	-0	-5	+9	+14	1.9
2031	32	MLB	HOU	100%	489	466	124	23	1	15	18	89	2	1	1	266	296	416	713	150	296	18	4	311	97	-2	-0	-5	+9	+14	1.5
2032	33	MLB	HOU	100%	440	419	108	19	1	13	16	82	2	1	0	258	288	401	689	143	291	19	4	303	90	-5	+0	-6	+8	+12	1.0
2033	34	MLB	HOU	100%	372	354	88	15	0	10	14	72	1	0	0	249	279	376	655	127	285	19	4	293	82	-7	+0	-6	+7	+11	0.3
2034	35	MLB	HOU	100%	314	299	72	12	0	8	11	63	1	0	0	241	270	361	631	120	277	20	4	281	73	-10	+0	-7	+6	+9	-0.2
2035	36	MLB	HOU	100%	253	241	56	9	0	6	9	53	1	0	0	232	263	344	607	112	269	21	4	268	64	-10	+0	-7	+5	+7	-0.6
2027	28	MLB	HOU	100%	520	494	138	26	1	18	19	89	2	1	1	279	309	445	754	166	308	17	4	328	109	+6	-0	-3	+9	+15	2.7
2028	29	MLB	HOU	100%	520	493	138	26	1	18	20	90	2	1	1	280	311	446	757	166	307	17	4	326	108	+5	-0	-4	+9	+15	2.6
2029	30	MLB	HOU	100%	520	493	136	26	1	17	20	91	2	1	1	276	307	436	743	160	306	18	4	323	106	+3	-0	-4	+9	+15	2.3
2030	31	MLB	HOU	100%	504	478	131	25	1	16	19	90	2	1	1	274	305	431	736	157	303	18	4	319	102	+1	-0	-5	+9	+14	2.0
2031	32	MLB	HOU	100%	489	466	124	23	1	15	18	89	2	1	1	266	296	416	713	150	299	18	4	313	97	-1	-0	-5	+9	+14	1.6
2032	33	MLB	HOU	100%	440	419	110	20	1	13	16	82	2	1	0	263	293	408	701	146	294	19	4	304	91	-4	+0	-6	+8	+12	1.0
2033	34	MLB	HOU	100%	372	354	90	16	0	11	14	72	1	0	0	254	285	393	677	138	287	19	4	294	83	-7	+0	-6	+7	+11	0.4
2034	35	MLB	HOU	100%	314	299	73	12	0	9	11	63	1	0	0	244	273	375	648	130	279	20	4	282	74	-9	+0	-7	+6	+9	-0.2
2035	36	MLB	HOU	100%	253	241	56	9	0	6	9	53	1	0	0	232	263	344	607	112	272	21	4	269	64	-10	+0	-7	+5	+7	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5841	5547	1502	277	11	194	214	1053	26	10	7	271	301	430	731	159	301	18	4	318	101	+9	-1	-35	+105	+165	24.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	617	168	31	1	22	24	117	3	1	1	272	303	433	736	160	303	18	4	318	101	+1	-0	-4	+12	+18	2.8
Career	—			—	7265	6893	1845	327	20	230	265	1336	39	17	9	268	299	421	720	153	300	18	4	313	97	-21	-0	-35	+130	+206	28.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	617	165	29	2	21	24	120	3	2	1	267	298	423	721	156	299	18	4	313	97	-2	+0	-3	+12	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Indians	—	162	153	45	8	1	1	3	18	4	0	1	294	325	379	704	85	324	11	2	313	98	-0	-0	—	—	+5	0.4
2018	19	ROK	AZL Indians 2	—	164	155	55	9	4	2	7	18	1	1	0	355	387	503	890	148	393	11	4	390	157	+11	+0	—	—	+5	1.6
2019	20	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	88	82	37	6	0	5	4	8	1	0	0	451	483	707	1.190	256	457	9	5	513	251	+15	+0	—	—	+2	1.8
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	105	96	38	4	0	11	8	17	0	2	0	396	442	781	1.224	385	391	16	8	518	255	+18	+0	—	—	+3	2.2
2021	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	307	287	86	21	1	6	15	46	2	2	1	300	339	443	781	143	336	15	5	344	121	+7	+0	—	—	+9	1.6
2021	22	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	50	46	12	4	0	0	3	15	1	0	0	261	320	348	668	87	387	30	6	304	91	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	219	201	59	9	1	16	13	39	3	1	0	294	346	587	933	294	291	18	6	400	164	+16	+0	—	—	+6	2.3
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	267	244	77	13	3	9	21	40	0	1	0	316	370	504	874	189	345	15	8	382	150	+15	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2022	23	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	38	35	3	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	86	135	86	221		100	16	3	109	-58	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	377	355	100	22	0	23	11	74	5	0	0	282	313	538	851	256	292	20	3	364	137	+16	+0	+5	+7	+11	3.9
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	619	585	175	29	3	16	24	107	2	2	0	299	329	441	770	142	338	17	4	337	116	+11	+0	+3	+11	+18	4.4
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	567	542	139	25	1	20	20	95	2	1	1	256	285	417	702	161	277	17	4	309	94	-4	-0	+6	+11	+16	2.9
2025	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	24	22	7	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	318	348	500	848	182	353	21	4	358	132	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1563	1482	414	76	4	59	55	276	9	3	1	279	309	455	765	176	305	18	4	333	113	+23	+0	+14	+28	+44	11.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1A.J. Pierzynskilast yr '16 AS×3SS×2 career totals — 17 seasons, 7,778 PA	17	7,778	188	15	280	318	420	+116	+81	47.1	38.8
	/162	664	16	1	280	318	420	+9.9	+6.9	4.0	pk7: 31
#2Ramon Hernandezlast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 5,543 PA	14	5,543	166	8	263	326	418	+65	+57	33.7	30.7
	/162	664	20	1	263	326	418	+7.7	+6.9	4.0	pk7: 28
#3Wilson Ramoslast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,786 PA	12	3,786	136	1	271	318	432	+68	+61	28.0	26.7
	/162	664	24	0	271	318	432	+11.9	+10.7	4.9	pk7: 25
#4Bengie Molinalast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,049 PA	11	5,049	143	3	274	307	413	+59	+69	26.8	26.0
	/162	664	19	0	274	307	413	+7.7	+9.1	3.5	pk7: 25
#5Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	14	6,189	203	12	269	296	426	+90	+35	26.9	23.6
	/162	664	22	1	269	296	426	+9.7	+3.8	2.9	pk7: 20
#6Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yainer Diaz (OGILVIE)	27	60	50	50	25	268/299/434	166	289	18	1	16%	4%	101	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Starlin Castro 2018 · MLB	28	55→63	49→50	47→50	43	276/312/417	141	316	18	5	19%	4%	105	+2.1	280/322/430	150	324	17	5	18%	6%	112	+2.6	280/325/417	137	325	14	3	18%	6%	107	+2.1
✕Yohel Pozo 2023 · MLB	26	55→57	53→60	42→40	41	282/305/459	177	301	21	3	15%	3%	114	+2.7	257/279/416	159	268	20	4	13%	3%	92	+1.2	253/274/413	159	258	21	2	12%	2%	86	+0.4
●Jamie Westbrook 2022 · AAA	27	48→55	50	48→45	46	246/304/399	153	276	19	5	19%	6%	98	+1.6	240/308/380	140	278	16	5	19%	7%	95	+1.4	249/316/391	143	292	15	4	20%	7%	97	+1.2
●Jonathan Schoop 2019 · MLB	27	49→57	56→60	42→45	41	257/297/445	188	291	25	2	22%	4%	108	+2.3	264/309/459	195	306	26	3	23%	5%	116	+2.8	274/321/464	190	318	25	1	22%	5%	120	+2.3
✕J.R. House 2007 · AAA	27	57→60	47→50	44→30	46	281/318/424	144	307	14	4	14%	5%	109	+2.4	251/296/382	131	277	14	3	15%	6%	89	+1.0	237/284/354	117	259	13	1	14%	6%	74	-0.1
✕Devon Travis 2018 · MLB	27	55→61	49→50	46→50	44	273/312/433	160	319	15	9	20%	5%	110	+2.4	237/281/382	145	266	16	8	18%	5%	83	+0.6	224/264/356	132	245	16	5	16%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Alan Espinoza 2019 · AAA	28	49	50→55	50→45	42	248/288/399	151	281	18	7	19%	4%	91	+1.1	259/298/435	176	292	22	7	19%	4%	105	+2.1	275/310/468	193	301	25	3	18%	4%	118	+1.8
✕Brett Lawrie 2016 · MLB	26	51→55	50→55	46→55	44	257/304/413	156	300	18	6	21%	6%	101	+1.8	251/307/408	157	320	18	9	26%	7%	102	+1.8	246/308/402	156	324	17	11	28%	7%	95	+0.9
●Eliezer Alfonzo 2007 · MLB	28	49→54	52→55	46→40	37	252/298/420	168	312	21	4	26%	4%	102	+1.8	244/279/394	150	312	18	4	27%	3%	85	+0.7	262/290/479	217	290	34	2	23%	2%	113	+1.0
✕Adam Moore 2010 · MLB	26	52→60	48→55	44→40	44	260/311/403	142	307	15	3	21%	6%	102	+1.8	233/278/349	116	289	12	5	23%	5%	72	-0.2	209/266/340	131	279	16	2	30%	7%	64	-0.3
✕Yan Gomes 2016 · MLB	29	50→54	53→55	47→40	40	256/298/429	173	308	20	2	24%	5%	103	+1.9	229/281/397	168	281	21	2	26%	5%	88	+0.9	240/312/412	172	296	22	1	26%	8%	100	+1.1
●Wilson Ramos 2015 · MLB	27	51→60	52→60	42→30	47	264/304/422	158	280	22	2	16%	6%	104	+2.0	260/299/419	159	285	22	2	17%	5%	101	+1.8	288/335/471	183	313	25	0	17%	7%	125	+2.3
●Gio Urshela 2020 · MLB	28	54→60	49→55	43→40	44	271/312/422	151	306	17	3	18%	5%	107	+2.2	274/323/435	161	320	18	4	20%	6%	115	+2.7	274/326/421	147	323	16	2	20%	7%	109	+1.5
●Bengie Molina 2001 · MLB	27	54→58	48→55	49→30	50	268/311/410	142	265	17	4	7%	5%	103	+1.9	258/297/372	114	270	13	2	10%	4%	87	+0.8	281/313/443	161	281	21	0	9%	3%	108	+2.0
✕Humberto Cota 2006 · MLB	27	47	50	48→30	42	240/288/398	158	297	17	4	25%	6%	91	+1.1	237/285/345	108	288	10	5	20%	6%	75	-0.0	269/337/401	132	320	15	0	20%	9%	111	+1.4
✕Khalil Greene 2008 · MLB	28	48→54	55→60	51→45	46	250/302/446	196	277	22	6	19%	6%	109	+2.4	229/282/390	161	261	19	7	20%	6%	86	+0.8	211/266/348	136	243	17	6	21%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Jose Lopez 2012 · MLB	28	51→59	51→55	45	45	258/291/415	157	263	19	5	11%	4%	96	+1.5	251/289/389	138	278	15	6	16%	5%	88	+0.9	255/286/368	112	293	9	0	16%	4%	78	+0.1
★Salvador Perez 2016 · MLB	26	53→60	52→70	48→30	43	270/298/434	164	285	21	2	14%	3%	105	+2.1	261/296/466	205	283	28	2	19%	4%	113	+2.6	281/321/549	268	313	41	1	24%	4%	142	+3.3
✕Emmanuel Rivera 2023 · MLB	27	46→56	53→55	48→45	45	239/295/414	175	284	20	6	24%	7%	98	+1.6	244/302/363	119	303	12	5	22%	7%	87	+0.8	248/307/336	87	314	7	4	22%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Carlos Valencia 2007 · AAA	27	52→59	53→60	41→40	44	266/289/437	172	264	21	4	10%	3%	102	+1.8	259/286/428	169	274	20	4	14%	3%	98	+1.6	260/288/434	174	275	21	3	15%	3%	99	+1.2