Austin Riley — OGILVIE

Austin Riley3B Atlanta Braves

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 6.802 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION385 act + 256 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 102102vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .318 / .421

PA256

HR9

K%28

BB%8

BABIP316

ISO173

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

659.5%

xwOBA

690.331

POWER60

Barrel%

8613.5

Avg EV

9092.1

Bat Spd

8374.9

EYE50

Chase%

9022.2%

SPEED55

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1032 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

258

774

—

wRC+

126

105

◀◀L

wOBA

350

322

◀L

ISO

186

180

◀L

BABIP

301

319

▶R

19.8%

28.3%

◀◀L

BB%

9.3%

6.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.802 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$8M	+0.4	$2M	-$7M
2027	Ext	$21M	+2.4	$18M	-$1M
2028	Ext	$21M	+2.0	$14M	-$3M
2029	Ext	$21M	+1.5	$10M	-$6M
2030	Ext	$21M	+0.8	$2M	-$12M
2031	Ext	$21M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$12M
2032	Ext	$21M	—	—	—
Totals		$136M		$44M	-$53M

Options · projected decision
2033	CLUB OPT	$21.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2034	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$53M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	252	227	48	9	1	9	16	92	6	2	2	211	281	379	660	167	302	37	6	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	252	217	66	14	1	12	26	65	6	2	2	304	394	544	937	240	378	26	10	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Rome Braves	—	543	511	100	30	1	15	23	214	3	3	3	196	235	346	581	151	295	39	4	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Rome Braves	—	543	495	134	39	2	20	39	147	3	3	3	271	328	479	807	208	341	27	7	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	3 teams	—	619	568	126	16	1	22	33	208	11	3	3	222	278	370	647	148	301	34	5	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	3 teams	—	619	554	154	24	3	26	47	145	11	3	3	278	346	473	819	195	328	23	8	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA	3 teams	—	455	421	96	22	2	17	24	172	7	1	0	228	281	411	692	183	336	38	5	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA	3 teams	—	455	408	120	30	3	19	37	129	7	1	0	294	363	522	885	228	384	28	8	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	2 teams	—	491	455	106	22	1	33	29	160	5	0	2	233	286	503	790	270	277	33	6	330	111	+6	-1	-2	-5	+14	1.2
2019	22	MLB	2 teams	—	491	448	113	24	1	33	36	147	5	0	2	252	315	531	846	279	296	30	7	366	138	+21	-1	-2	-5	+14	2.7
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	206	188	45	7	1	8	16	49	1	0	0	239	302	415	717	176	280	24	8	311	96	-1	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.3
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	206	188	45	7	1	8	16	49	1	0	0	239	302	415	717	176	280	24	8	317	101	+0	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	662	590	179	33	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	303	372	531	902	227	368	25	8	385	153	+39	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.9
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	662	590	179	33	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	303	372	531	902	227	368	25	8	391	158	+43	-0	-3	+2	+19	6.2
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	693	615	168	39	2	38	57	168	17	2	0	273	351	528	880	255	315	24	8	377	147	+37	+0	-4	+2	+20	5.7
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	693	615	168	39	2	38	57	168	17	2	0	273	351	528	880	255	315	24	8	383	151	+40	+0	-4	+2	+20	6.0
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	715	636	179	32	3	37	59	172	9	3	1	281	351	516	867	234	324	24	8	366	138	+31	+0	+1	+3	+20	5.6
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	715	636	179	32	3	37	59	172	9	3	1	281	351	516	867	234	324	24	8	374	144	+36	+0	+1	+3	+20	6.1
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	341	119	+10	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.5
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	345	122	+12	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	447	416	108	20	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	260	309	428	737	168	337	29	6	321	104	+2	+0	+0	+2	+13	1.7
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	447	416	108	20	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	260	309	428	737	168	337	29	6	326	108	+4	+0	+0	+2	+13	1.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	ATL	—	385	343	71	13	1	9	32	113	8	6	1	207	290	329	619	122	278	29	8	279	72	-12	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.1
YTD	29	MLB	ATL	—	385	343	71	13	1	9	32	113	8	6	1	207	290	329	619	122	278	29	8	282	74	-11	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.2
ROS	29	MLB	ATL	100%	256	230	57	11	1	9	20	71	4	3	1	247	318	421	739	173	314	28	8	325	107	+2	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.0
ROS	29	MLB	ATL	100%	257	231	58	12	1	9	20	71	4	3	1	251	322	429	750	177	314	28	8	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.7
FULL	29	MLB	ATL	—	642	574	129	25	2	18	52	184	12	9	2	225	303	369	672	145	296	29	8	293	82	-13	+1	-1	+2	+18	0.8
TOT	29	MLB	ATL	—	641	573	128	24	2	18	52	184	12	9	2	223	301	366	667	143	294	29	8	298	86	-10	+1	-1	+2	+18	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	ATL	100%	629	564	142	29	2	21	50	175	10	6	1	252	324	422	746	170	324	28	8	329	110	+7	+1	-4	+2	+18	2.4
2028	31	MLB	ATL	100%	616	552	138	28	2	20	49	173	10	5	1	250	322	417	739	167	321	28	8	324	106	+4	+1	-5	+2	+17	2.0
2029	32	MLB	ATL	100%	604	542	131	26	1	19	48	172	9	4	1	242	314	399	712	157	316	28	8	318	101	+1	+0	-6	+2	+17	1.5
2030	33	MLB	ATL	100%	521	467	109	21	1	15	41	151	8	3	1	233	306	379	685	146	310	29	8	310	95	-3	+0	-6	+2	+15	0.8
2031	34	MLB	ATL	100%	440	396	90	17	1	12	34	130	7	2	0	227	300	366	666	139	302	30	8	299	87	-6	+0	-7	+2	+12	0.2
2032	35	MLB	ATL	100%	372	335	73	13	1	10	29	113	5	1	0	218	290	352	642	134	293	30	8	288	78	-9	+0	-7	+1	+11	-0.4
2033	36	MLB	ATL	100%	250	225	46	8	0	6	19	78	4	0	0	204	278	320	598	116	284	31	8	276	69	-9	+0	-7	+1	+7	-0.8
2027	30	MLB	ATL	100%	629	564	142	29	2	21	50	175	10	6	1	252	324	422	746	170	324	28	8	317	101	+1	+1	-4	+2	+18	1.7
2028	31	MLB	ATL	100%	616	552	138	28	2	20	49	173	10	5	1	250	322	417	739	167	321	28	8	313	97	-2	+1	-5	+2	+17	1.4
2029	32	MLB	ATL	100%	604	542	131	26	1	19	48	172	9	4	1	242	314	399	712	157	316	28	8	306	93	-5	+0	-6	+2	+17	0.9
2030	33	MLB	ATL	100%	521	467	109	21	1	15	41	151	8	3	1	233	306	379	685	146	310	29	8	298	87	-8	+0	-6	+2	+15	0.3
2031	34	MLB	ATL	100%	440	396	90	17	1	12	34	130	7	2	0	227	300	366	666	139	302	30	8	288	79	-11	+0	-7	+2	+12	-0.3
2032	35	MLB	ATL	100%	372	335	73	13	1	10	29	113	5	1	0	218	290	352	642	134	293	30	8	277	70	-13	+0	-7	+1	+11	-0.8
2033	36	MLB	ATL	100%	250	225	46	8	0	6	19	78	4	0	0	204	278	320	598	116	284	31	8	265	61	-11	+0	-7	+1	+7	-1.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7178	6456	1637	322	20	281	554	1974	109	31	10	254	323	440	763	187	319	28	8	330	111	+89	+2	-54	+19	+203	26.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	148	29	2	25	50	179	10	3	1	253	322	438	760	185	319	28	8	330	111	+8	+0	-5	+2	+18	2.4
Career	—			—	9240	8363	2050	409	25	359	663	2712	136	40	18	245	311	429	740	184	316	29	7	322	105	+49	+1	-54	+26	+262	28.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	144	29	2	25	47	191	10	3	1	245	312	429	741	184	316	29	7	322	105	+3	+0	-4	+2	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	252	217	66	14	1	12	26	65	6	2	2	304	394	544	937	240	378	26	10	406	169	+20	-0	—	—	+7	2.7
2016	19	A	Rome Braves	—	543	495	134	39	2	20	39	147	3	3	3	271	328	479	807	208	341	27	7	351	127	+16	-1	—	—	+15	3.2
2017	20	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	203	178	56	9	1	8	20	50	3	2	0	315	393	511	904	197	393	25	10	396	161	+14	+0	—	—	+6	2.1
2017	20	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	339	306	77	10	1	12	23	74	5	0	2	252	314	408	723	157	289	22	7	319	102	+1	-1	—	—	+10	1.0
2017	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	77	70	21	5	1	6	4	21	3	1	1	300	364	657	1.021	357	349	27	5	437	193	+8	-0	—	—	+2	1.0
2018	21	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	324	291	82	17	0	12	26	95	4	1	0	282	349	464	813	182	374	29	8	358	132	+12	+0	—	—	+9	2.1
2018	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	109	99	33	10	3	6	8	28	2	0	0	333	394	677	1.071	343	415	26	7	458	208	+13	+0	—	—	+3	1.7
2018	21	ROK	GCL Braves	—	22	18	5	3	0	1	3	6	1	0	0	278	409	611	1.020	333	364	27	14	439	194	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2019	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	297	274	62	11	1	18	16	108	5	0	2	226	281	471	752	245	293	36	5	327	108	+3	-1	-2	-5	+8	0.3
2019	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	194	174	51	13	0	15	20	39	0	0	0	293	366	626	992	333	300	20	10	426	184	+18	+0	—	—	+5	2.4
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	206	188	45	7	1	8	16	49	1	0	0	239	302	415	717	176	280	24	8	317	101	+0	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	662	590	179	33	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	303	372	531	902	227	368	25	8	391	158	+43	-0	-3	+2	+19	6.2
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	693	615	168	39	2	38	57	168	17	2	0	273	351	528	880	255	315	24	8	383	151	+40	+0	-4	+2	+20	6.0
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	715	636	179	32	3	37	59	172	9	3	1	281	351	516	867	234	324	24	8	374	144	+36	+0	+1	+3	+20	6.1
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	345	122	+12	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	447	416	108	20	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	260	309	428	737	168	337	29	6	326	108	+4	+0	+0	+2	+13	1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3489	3144	850	168	11	169	264	911	52	7	5	270	337	492	829	222	325	26	8	362	135	+138	-1	-11	+6	+99	23.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Vernon Wellslast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 7,118 PA	13	7,118	269	108	270	319	461	+0	-19	32.9	31.8
	/162	664	25	10	270	319	461	+0.0	-1.8	3.1	pk7: 31
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	7,932	307	40	253	319	438	+23	-10	35.1	31.7
	/162	664	26	3	253	319	438	+1.9	-0.8	2.9	pk7: 28
#2Adam Joneslast yr '19 AS×10SS×7HOF career totals — 14 seasons, 7,516 PA	14	7,516	282	97	277	317	454	+18	-33	33.3	29.4
	/162	664	25	9	277	317	454	+1.6	-2.9	2.9	pk7: 25
#3Aaron Hilllast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,217 PA	13	6,217	162	74	266	323	417	+22	+25	27.7	26.1
	/162	664	17	8	266	323	417	+2.4	+2.6	3.0	pk7: 25
#4Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#5Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#6Eduardo Escobarlast yr '23 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,114 PA	12	5,114	164	23	253	305	430	+29	+16	21.1	21.1
	/162	664	21	3	253	305	430	+3.7	+2.0	2.7	pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Riley (OGILVIE)	29	50	60	55	50	223/301/366	143	294	18	9	29%	8%	86	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Todd Frazier 2014 · MLB	28	46→51	53→60	47→50	48	237/306/415	179	277	20	9	23%	8%	103	+1.9	247/313/446	199	278	26	13	21%	8%	114	+2.7	243/310/454	211	268	30	14	22%	8%	112	+2.9
✕Jeff Baker 2010 · MLB	29	53→51	49→55	52→45	48	260/320/419	159	319	16	6	23%	8%	109	+2.4	258/308/395	137	322	12	6	22%	7%	98	+1.6	259/315/428	169	323	18	6	24%	7%	105	+0.7
✕Derek Norris 2017 · MLB	28	46→56	50→55	48→50	47	232/298/388	156	290	18	8	26%	8%	92	+1.2	223/287/395	172	269	22	9	26%	7%	90	+1.0	196/257/381	185	210	29	3	24%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Jackie Bradley Jr. 2019 · MLB	29	47→54	51→55	55→50	50	236/316/406	170	288	18	13	24%	9%	105	+2.1	222/305/384	162	282	18	12	26%	9%	95	+1.4	206/292/358	152	265	17	10	28%	9%	79	+0.2
●Scott Hairston 2008 · MLB	28	47→51	56→60	52→50	49	248/313/444	196	280	24	6	21%	8%	113	+2.6	248/307/441	193	281	23	9	21%	7%	110	+2.4	243/306/430	187	273	23	10	20%	7%	104	+1.3
●Dansby Swanson 2023 · MLB	29	52→55	54→55	48→55	46	265/323/446	181	328	23	12	26%	8%	118	+3.0	248/316/413	165	308	20	14	25%	9%	106	+2.2	239/311/399	160	295	19	15	25%	9%	98	+1.6
●Christian Walker 2020 · MLB	29	44→53	56→60	50→45	47	234/307/427	193	288	25	7	28%	9%	107	+2.2	244/319/426	182	292	22	4	24%	9%	111	+2.5	241/326/460	219	262	29	5	21%	10%	119	+3.2
✕Yan Gomes 2016 · MLB	29	50→54	53→55	47→40	40	256/298/429	173	308	20	2	24%	5%	103	+1.9	229/281/397	168	281	21	2	26%	5%	88	+0.9	240/312/412	172	296	22	1	26%	8%	100	+1.1
✕Max Stassi 2021 · MLB	30	43	52→55	46→40	49	226/305/385	159	280	21	4	27%	9%	95	+1.4	225/306/389	164	298	20	3	30%	9%	97	+1.5	210/296/365	155	282	19	0	31%	9%	85	+0.4
●Brandon Inge 2007 · MLB	30	50→56	53→55	45	50	257/320/438	181	293	21	7	20%	8%	115	+2.7	232/310/397	165	283	19	7	24%	9%	100	+1.7	230/316/395	165	282	19	4	25%	9%	98	+1.4
✕Rocco Baldelli 2010 · MLB	28	45→55	54→55	48→55	45	239/304/414	175	284	23	7	25%	7%	102	+1.9	234/285/380	146	298	17	8	27%	6%	85	+0.7	216/238/328	112	289	12	5	29%	2%	50	-0.4
✕Keith Ginter 2006 · MLB	30	46→51	53→55	49→45	50	237/310/413	177	269	21	7	21%	8%	105	+2.1	220/300/350	130	255	14	5	19%	8%	84	+0.6	212/296/322	109	250	12	4	19%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Jonathan Schoop 2023 · MLB	31	49→57	50→60	51→45	43	248/291/401	153	285	18	5	21%	5%	92	+1.2	231/288/357	126	285	12	7	22%	7%	79	+0.3	218/285/279	62	298	0	0	24%	9%	56	-0.3
✕Nick Ahmed 2020 · MLB	30	47→51	51→55	48→55	50	240/302/411	171	271	17	8	19%	8%	99	+1.7	236/296/379	143	285	13	9	21%	8%	89	+0.9	225/282/336	111	284	8	11	22%	7%	68	-0.2
●Travis d'Arnaud 2018 · MLB	29	49→54	51→60	47→45	49	249/307/410	161	271	20	3	17%	7%	102	+1.8	254/314/437	183	289	24	4	21%	8%	112	+2.6	264/323/455	191	313	24	1	23%	6%	119	+1.4
✕Ramón Urías 2023 · MLB	29	49→57	50	43→50	47	247/312/398	151	300	18	4	24%	8%	101	+1.8	246/310/383	137	303	15	5	23%	7%	95	+1.4	243/307/372	129	299	13	4	22%	7%	90	+0.6
●Chas McCormick 2023 · MLB	28	48→51	52→55	44→55	50	245/323/409	164	314	21	7	28%	10%	108	+2.3	237/311/389	152	301	19	17	27%	8%	98	+1.6	226/300/368	142	288	18	22	27%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Brian Anderson 2022 · MLB	29	51→59	54→60	51→45	49	259/341/436	177	320	22	8	25%	9%	123	+3.3	232/312/373	141	314	16	4	29%	9%	95	+1.4	221/301/349	129	307	14	1	31%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Hunter Dozier 2021 · MLB	29	51→56	56→60	50→45	51	259/335/463	204	324	23	6	26%	10%	127	+3.6	234/301/409	175	300	18	7	27%	8%	99	+1.7	215/275/378	163	282	17	5	29%	7%	78	+0.2
✕Kyle Blanks 2017 · MLB	30	51→58	53→55	49→45	44	254/326/429	175	333	20	8	29%	8%	115	+2.8	224/284/374	150	317	18	9	33%	6%	83	+0.6	166/228/302	136	239	19	0	38%	5%	37	-0.5