Austin Riley — OGILVIE

Austin Riley3B Atlanta Braves

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs MLB BB -5% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.3 · 2026

wRC+†vL 101110vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .321 / .455

PA501

HR21

SB5

K%26

BB%7

xwOBA.327

Barrel%9.6%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

55→55

EYE

47↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+2.3	$18M	-$4M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+2.2	$18M	-$4M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+1.8	$15M	-$7M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+1.5	$13M	-$9M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+1.0	$9M	-$13M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+0.6	$3M	-$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$22M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$174M		$76M	-$98M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$98M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Danville Braves	252	227	48	9	1	9	16	92	6	2	2	.211	.281	.379	.660	.167	.302	37	6	.279	72	-8	-0	+0	+1	+7	-0.0
2016	19	A	Rome Braves	543	512	102	29	1	17	22	201	3	3	3	.199	.236	.359	.596	.160	.283	37	4	.254	53	-29	-1	+0	+2	+15	-1.3
2017	20	A+	3 teams	619	567	127	17	1	21	34	202	11	3	3	.224	.281	.369	.650	.145	.302	33	5	.280	73	-19	-1	+0	+2	+18	0.0
2018	21	AAA	3 teams	455	423	99	23	2	17	22	164	7	1	0	.234	.283	.418	.702	.184	.335	36	5	.303	90	-5	+0	+0	+2	+13	1.0
2019	22	MLB	2 teams	491	455	105	21	1	31	29	158	5	0	2	.231	.284	.486	.770	.255	.276	32	6	.324	106	+3	-1	-2	-5	+14	0.9
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	206	188	43	6	2	8	16	49	1	0	0	.229	.293	.410	.702	.181	.265	24	8	.297	85	-3	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.1
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	662	590	176	32	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	.298	.367	.524	.891	.225	.360	25	8	.380	149	+37	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.6
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	693	615	161	37	2	34	57	168	17	2	0	.262	.341	.494	.835	.233	.305	24	8	.357	131	+25	+0	-4	+2	+20	4.4
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	715	636	172	31	2	35	59	172	9	3	1	.270	.341	.491	.831	.220	.311	24	8	.353	129	+23	+0	+1	+3	+20	4.8
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	469	425	111	25	2	21	37	118	5	0	0	.261	.328	.478	.805	.216	.312	25	8	.346	123	+12	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	447	416	108	21	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	.260	.309	.430	.740	.171	.337	29	6	.324	106	+3	+0	+0	+2	+13	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	112	99	22	5	0	3	12	24	1	2	0	.222	.312	.364	.676	.141	.264	21	11	.304	91	-1	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.3
ROS	29	MLB	ATL	389	350	90	18	1	16	32	96	4	3	0	.257	.326	.451	.778	.194	.303	25	8	.337	116	+7	+1	-0	+1	+11	2.0
TOT	29	MLB	ATL	501	449	112	23	1	19	44	120	5	5	0	.249	.323	.432	.755	.183	.298	24	9	.329	110	+6	+1	+0	+2	+14	2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	ATL	489	441	110	22	1	19	40	99	5	3	0	.249	.319	.433	.752	.184	.280	20	8	.333	113	+7	+1	-3	+2	+14	2.1
2028	31	MLB	ATL	474	428	106	21	1	18	39	98	4	1	0	.248	.316	.428	.744	.180	.279	21	8	.330	110	+6	+0	-3	+2	+13	1.8
2029	32	MLB	ATL	455	411	101	20	1	17	37	97	4	0	0	.246	.314	.423	.738	.178	.277	21	8	.325	107	+3	+0	-4	+2	+13	1.4
2030	33	MLB	ATL	425	384	92	18	1	15	34	93	4	0	0	.240	.308	.409	.717	.169	.276	22	8	.319	102	+1	+0	-5	+2	+12	1.0
2031	34	MLB	ATL	379	343	80	15	1	13	30	86	3	0	0	.233	.301	.397	.697	.163	.274	23	8	.312	97	-1	+0	-5	+1	+11	0.6
2032	35	MLB	ATL	325	293	68	13	1	11	26	77	3	0	0	.232	.301	.396	.697	.164	.271	24	8	.304	91	-3	+0	-6	+1	+9	0.1
2033	36	MLB	ATL	267	242	54	10	1	8	21	66	2	0	0	.223	.291	.372	.662	.149	.268	25	8	.294	83	-5	+0	-7	+1	+8	-0.3
2034	37	MLB	ATL	204	184	39	7	0	6	16	53	2	0	0	.212	.282	.348	.630	.136	.264	26	8	.283	75	-6	+0	-7	+1	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8959	8130	1992	395	24	365	646	2385	110	23	13	.245	.309	.434	.743	.189	.299	27	7	.322	105	+47	-1	-51	+25	+254	28.0
/ 162G	—			650	590	145	29	2	26	47	173	8	2	1	.246	.311	.434	.744	.188	.301	27	7	.322	105	+3	+0	-4	+2	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	Danville Braves	252	217	66	14	1	12	26	65	6	2	2	.304	.394	.544	.937	.240	.378	26	10	.406	169	+20	-0	—	—	+7	2.7
2016	19	A	Rome Braves	543	495	134	39	2	20	39	147	3	3	3	.271	.328	.479	.807	.208	.341	27	7	.351	127	+16	-1	—	—	+15	3.2
2017	20	AA	Mississippi Braves	203	178	56	9	1	8	20	50	3	2	0	.315	.393	.511	.904	.197	.393	25	10	.396	161	+14	+0	—	—	+6	2.1
2017	20	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	339	306	77	10	1	12	23	74	5	0	2	.252	.314	.408	.723	.157	.289	22	7	.319	102	+1	-1	—	—	+10	1.0
2017	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	77	70	21	5	1	6	4	21	3	1	1	.300	.364	.657	1.021	.357	.349	27	5	.437	193	+8	-0	—	—	+2	1.0
2018	21	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	324	291	82	17	0	12	26	95	4	1	0	.282	.349	.464	.813	.182	.374	29	8	.358	132	+12	+0	—	—	+9	2.1
2018	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	109	99	33	10	3	6	8	28	2	0	0	.333	.394	.677	1.071	.343	.415	26	7	.458	208	+13	+0	—	—	+3	1.7
2018	21	ROK	GCL Braves	22	18	5	3	0	1	3	6	1	0	0	.278	.409	.611	1.020	.333	.364	27	14	.439	194	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2019	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	297	274	62	11	1	18	16	108	5	0	2	.226	.281	.471	.752	.245	.293	36	5	.327	108	+3	-1	-2	-5	+8	0.3
2019	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	194	174	51	13	0	15	20	39	0	0	0	.293	.366	.626	.992	.333	.300	20	10	.426	184	+18	+0	—	—	+5	2.4
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	206	188	45	7	1	8	16	49	1	0	0	.239	.302	.415	.717	.176	.280	24	8	.317	101	+0	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	662	590	179	33	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	.303	.372	.531	.902	.227	.368	25	8	.391	158	+43	-0	-3	+2	+19	6.2
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	693	615	168	39	2	38	57	168	17	2	0	.273	.351	.528	.880	.255	.315	24	8	.383	151	+40	+0	-4	+2	+20	6.0
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	715	636	179	32	3	37	59	172	9	3	1	.281	.351	.516	.867	.234	.324	24	8	.374	144	+36	+0	+1	+3	+20	6.1
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	.256	.323	.461	.785	.205	.310	25	8	.345	122	+12	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	447	416	108	20	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	.260	.309	.428	.737	.168	.337	29	6	.326	108	+4	+0	+0	+2	+13	1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			3489	3144	850	168	11	169	264	911	52	7	5	.270	.337	.492	.829	.222	.325	26	8	.362	135	+138	-1	-11	+6	+99	23.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Riley (OGILVIE)	29	50	60	55	50	.251/.319/.439	.187	.282	20	4	20%	8%	116	+2.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyrone Taylor 2023 · MLB	29	47→52	57→60	50→55	45	.246/.307/.450	.204	.285	24	8	23%	6%	113	+2.6	.236/.289/.412	.176	.283	19	15	23%	5%	95	+1.4	.227/.279/.379	.151	.278	13	21	23%	5%	79	+0.1
●Scott Hairston 2009 · MLB	29	47→51	58→60	50	49	.249/.314/.455	.206	.282	25	6	22%	8%	117	+2.9	.244/.305/.429	.185	.276	22	11	20%	7%	106	+2.2	.238/.299/.443	.205	.264	26	10	21%	7%	103	+0.9
✕Keith Ginter 2005 · MLB	29	50→51	55	50→45	52	.256/.340/.445	.190	.297	22	7	22%	9%	124	+3.4	.229/.307/.385	.156	.263	18	5	20%	8%	96	+1.5	.210/.293/.339	.130	.238	15	3	18%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Brian Anderson 2022 · MLB	29	49→59	54→55	50→45	49	.252/.335/.433	.181	.308	22	7	25%	9%	120	+3.1	.229/.310/.369	.140	.306	16	4	28%	9%	93	+1.3	.216/.297/.340	.125	.297	14	1	30%	9%	74	-0.1
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2023 · MLB	29	44→54	55	48→45	53	.231/.317/.417	.185	.261	23	7	22%	10%	108	+2.3	.243/.349/.393	.150	.289	17	4	21%	13%	115	+2.8	.237/.354/.368	.130	.289	14	3	21%	14%	108	+1.5
✕Jedd Gyorko 2019 · MLB	30	49→53	58→60	48→45	53	.261/.334/.462	.201	.292	26	5	21%	10%	127	+3.6	.245/.324/.419	.174	.292	22	7	23%	10%	111	+2.5	.212/.297/.378	.166	.249	26	5	26%	10%	88	+0.2
✕Stephen Piscotty 2021 · MLB	30	49→54	55→60	51→45	46	.255/.314/.440	.185	.294	24	6	22%	7%	113	+2.6	.229/.288/.375	.146	.290	18	7	27%	7%	85	+0.7	.210/.273/.343	.133	.264	17	3	27%	7%	67	-0.2
●Bubba Trammell 2001 · MLB	29	51→49	54→55	53→40	55	.259/.336/.441	.182	.288	21	10	18%	10%	122	+3.3	.254/.330/.442	.188	.268	24	4	15%	10%	120	+3.1	.250/.330/.439	.188	.258	25	2	15%	10%	115	+2.3
✕Welington Castillo 2016 · MLB	29	47→57	53→60	47→30	46	.244/.309/.417	.173	.290	22	3	24%	7%	105	+2.1	.256/.310/.429	.173	.317	23	3	26%	7%	108	+2.3	.262/.313/.422	.160	.330	21	2	27%	6%	104	+1.2
●Travis Shaw 2018 · MLB	28	48→53	55→60	50→45	49	.251/.318/.439	.188	.295	23	7	23%	8%	114	+2.7	.235/.328/.434	.199	.273	26	6	24%	12%	118	+3.0	.216/.322/.406	.190	.249	26	4	24%	13%	101	+1.2
✕Khalil Greene 2008 · MLB	28	48→54	55→60	51→45	46	.250/.302/.443	.194	.278	22	6	19%	6%	109	+2.4	.230/.283/.393	.163	.263	19	7	20%	6%	88	+0.9	.211/.266/.348	.136	.243	17	6	21%	6%	65	-0.4
●Greg Norton 2002 · MLB	30	49	56→60	51→40	50	.255/.325/.447	.192	.302	24	5	24%	9%	118	+3.0	.243/.318/.425	.182	.298	21	7	25%	10%	110	+2.4	.270/.367/.437	.168	.321	20	2	21%	13%	126	+1.7
●Taylor Ward 2023 · MLB	29	52	53→60	46→50	52	.264/.342/.442	.178	.315	20	7	22%	10%	124	+3.4	.252/.333/.436	.184	.298	23	6	23%	10%	119	+3.1	.240/.326/.442	.201	.281	26	5	24%	10%	116	+2.8
●Todd Frazier 2015 · MLB	29	50→54	53→65	47→50	49	.257/.325/.434	.177	.298	21	12	21%	8%	115	+2.8	.245/.318/.458	.213	.273	28	12	22%	9%	119	+3.1	.230/.316/.456	.227	.248	31	10	22%	10%	114	+2.9
●Cody Ross 2010 · MLB	29	52	58→65	49→45	46	.270/.326/.486	.216	.307	26	7	21%	7%	130	+3.8	.255/.317/.427	.172	.302	19	7	22%	8%	110	+2.4	.249/.317/.415	.165	.298	19	6	22%	8%	102	+1.6
✕David Cook 2010 · AAA	29	45→50	56→60	45→50	50	.237/.313/.432	.195	.281	24	10	25%	9%	110	+2.4	.220/.292/.370	.150	.295	17	9	30%	8%	85	+0.7	.205/.279/.331	.126	.292	13	8	32%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Hank Blalock 2010 · MLB	29	48→57	59→65	51→45	47	.257/.309/.476	.218	.278	27	5	19%	7%	120	+3.1	.250/.302/.418	.168	.289	21	8	21%	7%	102	+1.8	.265/.316/.368	.103	.321	12	9	20%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Jonathan Schoop 2022 · MLB	30	52→56	55→60	47→45	43	.270/.317/.449	.179	.310	24	3	21%	5%	117	+2.9	.232/.279/.366	.134	.276	15	5	21%	5%	79	+0.3	.203/.249/.315	.112	.246	11	5	22%	5%	50	-1.0
★Ryan Zimmerman 2014 · MLB	29	53→61	56→65	49→45	53	.274/.341/.466	.192	.307	23	6	19%	9%	130	+3.8	.250/.314/.431	.181	.285	21	5	20%	8%	110	+2.4	.279/.343/.504	.225	.310	29	1	20%	8%	139	+2.8
✕Todd Greene 2001 · MLB	30	46	56→65	49→30	48	.247/.303/.436	.189	.273	26	8	21%	7%	107	+2.2	.239/.278/.422	.183	.266	25	5	21%	4%	93	+1.3	.280/.323/.471	.190	.319	23	0	20%	6%	115	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)