Austin Riley

3B Atlanta Braves

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 7.802 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBATL	469	.256/.323/.461	19	0	120	2.2
2025	28	MLBATL	447	.260/.309/.428	16	2	106	1.5
2026	29	MLBATL	630	.219/.293/.364	19	9	85	0.6
2027PROJ	30	MLBATL	480	.235/.303/.399	17	6	97	1.0
2028PROJ	31	MLBATL	562	.230/.297/.388	19	3	92	0.5
2029PROJ	32	MLBATL	440	.224/.290/.374	14	2	87	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service7.802First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$21M2028Ext$21M2029Ext$21M2030Ext$21M2031Ext$21M2032Ext$21M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

Barrel%89

Bat Spd83

xwOBA67

Speed63

Form.232/.297/.397 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .235/.300/.399

CompsAderlin Rodríguez (age 30) · Brandon Dixon (age 30) · Jose Leon (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 10197vR 86

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .303 / .399

PA480

HR17

SB6

K%30

BB%7

BABIP309

ISO166

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$71M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

340.238

POWER

Barrel%

8914.0

Avg EV

9092.2

Bat Spd

8374.9

SPEED

Sprint

6328.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%31%▼31% over 99 PA (60d) · proj 30%

BB%7%·7% over 99 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.165·.167 over 90 AB (60d) · proj .164

HR/BB6.1%·6.7% over 60 BBE (60d) · proj 5.7%

BABIP.306·.268 over 56 BIP (60d) · proj .309

SLASH.232/.297/.397·proj .235/.300/.399

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1032 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

258

774

—

wRC+

123

104

◀◀L

wOBA

350

322

◀L

ISO

186

180

◀L

BABIP

301

319

▶R

19.8%

28.3%

◀◀L

BB%

9.3%

6.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.802 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$21M	+1.2	$10M	-$12M
2028	Ext	$21M	+0.5	$2M	-$17M
2029	Ext	$21M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	$21M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$85M		$10M	-$63M

Options · projected decision
2033	CLUB OPT	$21.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2034	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$63M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	252	217	66	14	1	12	26	65	6	2	2	304	394	544	937	240	378	26	10	406	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Rome Braves	—	543	495	134	39	2	20	39	147	3	3	3	271	328	479	807	208	341	27	7	351	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	203	178	56	9	1	8	20	50	3	2	0	315	393	511	904	197	393	25	10	396	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	339	306	77	10	1	12	23	74	5	0	2	252	314	408	723	157	289	22	7	319	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	77	70	21	5	1	6	4	21	3	1	1	300	364	657	1.021	357	349	27	5	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	324	291	82	17	0	12	26	95	4	1	0	282	349	464	813	182	374	29	8	358	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	109	99	33	10	3	6	8	28	2	0	0	333	394	677	1.071	343	415	26	7	458	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	GCL Braves	—	22	18	5	3	0	1	3	6	1	0	0	278	409	611	1.020	333	364	27	14	439	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	297	274	62	11	1	18	16	108	5	0	2	226	281	471	752	245	293	36	5	327	102	+1	-1	-2	-5	+6	-0.1
2019	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	194	174	51	13	0	15	20	39	0	0	0	293	366	626	992	333	300	20	10	426	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	206	188	45	7	1	8	16	49	1	0	0	239	302	415	717	176	280	24	8	317	99	-0	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	662	590	179	33	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	303	372	531	902	227	368	25	8	391	150	+39	-0	-3	+2	+14	5.4
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	693	615	168	39	2	38	57	168	17	2	0	273	351	528	880	255	315	24	8	383	144	+37	+0	-4	+2	+15	5.2
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	715	636	179	32	3	37	59	172	9	3	1	281	351	516	867	234	324	24	8	374	137	+31	+0	+1	+3	+15	5.1
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	345	120	+11	+0	-1	+2	+10	2.2
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	447	416	108	20	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	260	309	428	737	168	337	29	6	326	106	+3	+0	+0	+2	+10	1.5
2026	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	630	566	124	21	2	19	48	201	11	9	2	219	293	364	657	145	299	32	8	294	85	-11	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4119	3710	974	189	13	188	312	1112	63	16	7	263	330	473	803	210	322	27	8	351	124	+117	+0	-10	+8	+89	20.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	252	227	48	9	1	9	16	92	6	2	2	211	281	379	660	167	293	37	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	543	508	108	31	2	16	26	205	3	3	3	213	255	376	631	163	305	38	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	203	184	51	9	1	7	14	63	3	2	0	277	338	451	789	174	368	31	7	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	339	312	67	8	1	11	17	109	5	0	2	215	266	353	619	138	272	32	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	324	299	69	13	0	10	18	120	4	1	0	231	283	375	658	144	340	37	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	109	103	29	9	2	5	4	35	2	0	0	282	321	553	874	272	382	32	4	384	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	—	22	20	4	2	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	200	273	450	723	250	261	41	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	297	277	62	11	1	18	13	108	5	0	2	224	271	466	737	242	293	36	4	320	102	+1	-1	-2	-5	+6	-0.1
2019	22	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	194	180	45	11	0	14	14	49	0	0	0	250	304	544	849	294	264	25	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	206	189	45	7	1	8	15	49	1	0	0	238	298	413	710	175	280	24	7	314	99	-0	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	662	592	179	33	1	33	50	168	12	0	1	302	369	529	897	226	368	25	8	389	150	+39	-0	-3	+2	+14	5.4
2022	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	693	616	168	39	2	38	56	168	17	2	0	273	350	528	877	255	315	24	8	382	144	+37	+0	-4	+2	+15	5.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	715	640	179	32	3	37	55	172	9	3	1	280	345	512	858	233	324	24	8	370	137	+31	+0	+1	+3	+15	5.1
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	345	120	+11	+0	-1	+2	+10	2.2
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	447	417	108	20	1	16	26	128	3	2	1	259	307	427	734	168	337	29	6	325	106	+3	+0	+0	+2	+10	1.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	630	567	124	21	2	19	47	201	11	9	2	219	291	363	655	145	299	32	7	293	85	-11	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2015	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	252	227	48	9	1	9	16	92	6	2	2	211	281	379	660	167	302	37	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	—	252	217	66	14	1	12	26	65	6	2	2	304	394	544	937	240	378	26	10	406	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	543	508	108	31	2	16	26	205	3	3	3	213	255	376	631	163	314	38	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	—	543	495	134	39	2	20	39	147	3	3	3	271	328	479	807	208	341	27	7	351	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	619	566	133	19	2	20	35	197	11	3	3	235	292	382	674	147	317	32	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	619	554	154	24	3	26	47	145	11	3	3	278	346	473	819	195	328	23	8	359	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	455	421	102	24	2	16	24	163	7	1	0	242	294	423	717	181	351	36	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	455	408	120	30	3	19	37	129	7	1	0	294	363	522	885	228	384	28	8	385	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	491	457	107	22	1	32	27	157	5	0	2	234	284	497	781	263	278	32	5	334	112	+7	-1	-2	-5	+11	1.0
2019	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	491	448	113	24	1	33	36	147	5	0	2	252	315	531	846	279	296	30	7	366	112	+7	-1	-2	-5	+11	1.0
2020	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	206	189	45	7	1	8	15	49	1	0	0	238	298	413	710	175	278	24	7	314	99	-0	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	206	188	45	7	1	8	16	49	1	0	0	239	302	415	717	176	280	24	8	317	99	-0	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	662	592	179	33	1	33	50	168	12	0	1	302	369	529	897	226	366	25	8	389	150	+39	-0	-3	+2	+14	5.4
2021	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	662	590	179	33	1	33	52	168	12	0	1	303	372	531	902	227	368	25	8	391	150	+39	-0	-3	+2	+14	5.4
2022	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	693	616	168	39	2	38	56	168	17	2	0	273	350	528	877	255	314	24	8	382	144	+37	+0	-4	+2	+15	5.2
2022	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	693	615	168	39	2	38	57	168	17	2	0	273	351	528	880	255	315	24	8	383	144	+37	+0	-4	+2	+15	5.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	715	640	179	32	3	37	55	172	9	3	1	280	345	512	858	233	321	24	8	370	137	+31	+0	+1	+3	+15	5.1
2023	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	715	636	179	32	3	37	59	172	9	3	1	281	351	516	867	234	324	24	8	374	137	+31	+0	+1	+3	+15	5.1
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	345	120	+11	+0	-1	+2	+10	2.2
2024	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	469	425	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	256	323	461	785	205	310	25	8	345	120	+11	+0	-1	+2	+10	2.2
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	447	417	108	20	1	16	26	128	3	2	1	259	307	427	734	168	336	29	6	325	106	+3	+0	+0	+2	+10	1.5
2025	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	447	416	108	20	1	16	27	128	3	2	1	260	309	428	737	168	337	29	6	326	106	+3	+0	+0	+2	+10	1.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	630	567	124	21	2	19	47	201	11	9	2	219	291	363	655	145	298	32	7	293	85	-11	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2026	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	630	566	124	21	2	19	48	201	11	9	2	219	293	364	657	145	299	32	8	294	85	-11	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2015	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	252	228	48	9	1	9	16	92	6	2	2	211	281	377	658	167	293	37	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	543	509	108	31	2	16	26	205	3	3	3	212	255	375	630	163	305	38	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	619	568	133	19	2	20	35	197	11	3	3	234	292	380	673	146	308	32	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	455	421	102	24	2	16	24	163	7	1	0	242	294	423	717	181	346	36	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	491	456	107	22	1	32	27	157	5	0	2	235	284	498	782	263	282	32	5	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	206	188	45	7	1	8	15	49	1	0	0	239	298	415	712	176	280	24	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	662	595	179	33	1	33	50	168	12	0	1	301	369	526	895	225	368	25	8	389	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	693	615	168	39	2	38	56	168	17	2	0	273	350	528	878	255	315	24	8	382	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	715	645	179	32	3	37	55	172	9	3	1	278	345	509	854	231	324	24	8	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	469	424	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	257	323	462	786	205	310	25	8	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	447	415	108	20	1	16	26	128	3	2	1	260	307	429	736	169	337	29	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	630	567	124	21	2	19	47	201	11	9	2	219	291	363	655	145	299	32	7	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	469	424	109	26	2	19	37	118	5	0	0	257	323	462	786	205	310	25	8	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	447	415	108	20	1	16	26	128	3	2	1	260	307	429	736	169	337	29	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	630	567	124	21	2	19	47	201	11	9	2	219	291	363	655	145	299	32	7	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	550	497	117	20	2	19	40	166	8	7	2	235	303	399	702	164	309	30	7	311	97	-2	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	480	435	102	17	2	17	35	145	7	6	1	235	303	399	702	164	309	30	7	311	97	-2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	562	509	118	20	2	19	40	172	8	3	1	230	297	388	685	158	304	31	7	305	92	-5	+0	-5	+2	+12	0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	440	400	89	15	1	14	31	136	6	2	1	224	290	374	664	149	298	31	7	296	87	-7	+0	-5	+2	+10	-0.1
2030	33	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	403	367	80	13	1	12	28	127	5	2	0	216	281	356	638	140	291	32	7	285	79	-10	+0	-5	+1	+9	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	562	509	118	20	2	19	40	172	8	3	1	230	297	388	685	158	304	31	7	305	92	-5	+0	-5	+2	+12	0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	440	400	89	15	1	14	31	136	6	2	1	224	290	374	664	149	298	31	7	296	87	-7	+0	-5	+2	+10	-0.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	403	367	80	13	1	12	28	127	5	2	0	216	281	356	638	140	291	32	7	285	79	-10	+0	-5	+1	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5524	4986	1261	237	17	233	411	1547	82	23	9	253	320	447	768	195	317	28	7	337	105	+95	+1	-25	+13	+120	20.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	148	28	2	27	48	182	10	3	1	252	319	445	764	193	316	28	7	337	105	+11	+0	-3	+2	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	8067	7336	1799	348	26	325	548	2398	116	38	18	245	308	433	741	187	315	30	7	324	105	+94	+2	-27	+15	+130	21.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	145	28	2	26	44	193	9	3	1	245	307	431	738	186	316	30	7	324	105	+10	+0	-3	+2	+14	2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 194 PAwOBA .414 → .356 (−57)K% 20.1% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.10%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.31%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.13%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.04%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	15.23%
Doubles /BIP	9.63%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	8.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×1.050	10.90%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .414 → .356; ISO .333 → .308; BABIP .300 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 324 PAwOBA .349 → .291 (−57)K% 29.3% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.32%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	36.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷0.947	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.67%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.22%
Singles /BIP	27.04%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.967	×1.050	25.30%
Doubles /BIP	8.67%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.967	×1.050	7.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.116	×0.970	×0.967	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.12%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×1.050	5.57%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 123, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .349 → .291; ISO .182 → .150; BABIP .374 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMississippi Braves · 109 PAwOBA .440 → .384 (−56)K% 25.7% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.69%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	31.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.50%	÷1.037	×0.680	—	×1.050	3.79%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.62%
Singles /BIP	19.72%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.979	×1.050	18.77%
Doubles /BIP	14.08%	÷1.013	×0.910	×0.979	×1.050	13.00%
Triples /BIP	4.23%	÷1.110	×0.880	×0.979	×1.050	3.44%
Home runs /BIP	8.45%	÷0.897	×0.800	—	×1.050	7.92%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .440 → .384; ISO .343 → .302; BABIP .415 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Braves · 22 PAwOBA .415 → .287 (−129)K% 27.3% → 39.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	39.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	5.55%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	3.22%
Singles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.985	6.73%
Doubles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	17.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	6.40%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .415 → .287; ISO .333 → .235; BABIP .364 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 339 PAwOBA .315 → .264 (−51)K% 21.8% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.83%	÷0.963	×1.420	—	—	32.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.78%	÷1.091	×0.750	—	×1.042	4.86%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	1.43%
Singles /BIP	23.28%	÷0.978	×0.920	×0.985	×1.042	22.47%
Doubles /BIP	4.31%	÷1.148	×0.960	×0.985	×1.042	3.70%
Triples /BIP	0.43%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.985	×1.042	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	5.17%	÷0.929	×0.880	—	×1.042	5.11%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 130, 3B 130, K 93, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .315 → .264; ISO .157 → .134; BABIP .289 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMississippi Braves · 203 PAwOBA .389 → .337 (−52)K% 24.6% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.63%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	30.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.85%	÷0.989	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.11%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.30%
Singles /BIP	29.69%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.990	×1.050	27.68%
Doubles /BIP	7.03%	÷0.951	×0.910	×0.990	×1.050	6.99%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.146	×0.880	×0.990	×1.050	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷0.925	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.68%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .389 → .337; ISO .197 → .175; BABIP .393 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ARome Braves · 543 PAwOBA .345 → .268 (−76)K% 27.1% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.07%	÷0.961	×1.340	—	—	37.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.18%	÷1.050	×0.660	—	×1.045	4.72%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.44%
Singles /BIP	20.98%	÷1.036	×0.920	×0.983	×1.045	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	11.21%	÷0.953	×0.820	×0.983	×1.045	9.91%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.041	×0.940	×0.983	×1.045	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	5.75%	÷0.965	×0.820	—	×1.045	5.10%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 108, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .345 → .268; ISO .208 → .165; BABIP .341 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKDanville Braves · 252 PAwOBA .399 → .285 (−114)K% 25.8% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.79%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	36.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.92%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.022	6.49%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.740	—	×1.022	1.80%
Singles /BIP	25.66%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.950	×1.022	20.94%
Doubles /BIP	9.21%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.950	×1.022	6.62%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.950	×1.022	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.022	6.46%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .399 → .285; ISO .240 → .172; BABIP .378 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tim Wallach'80-'96 * career totals — 16 seasons, 8,908 PA	13.4	8,908	260	51	253*	313*	441*	+20	+21	34.7	30.1
/162	664	19	4	+1.5	+1.5	2.6	pk7: 26
#2Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	8.3	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#3Rico Petrocelli'63-'76 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,170 PA	9.3	6,170	210	10	258*	339*	470*	+43	-2	29.8	28.0
/162	664	23	1	+4.6	-0.2	3.2	pk7: 26
#4Mike Lowell'98-'10 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,498 PA	9.8	6,498	223	30	268*	329*	451*	+15	-22	28.3	26.4
/162	664	23	3	+1.6	-2.3	2.9	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.0	6,004	250	30	252	316	445	+21	-7	27.5	25.9
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-0.8	3.0	pk7: 24
#5Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	8.4	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
/162	664	26	3	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#6Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Riley (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	233/300/395	162	309	17	6	30%	7%	97	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2022 · AAA	30	44→48	55	45→30	39	231/280/412	182	293	23	4	30%	5%	93	+0.8	223/282/384	161	290	20	6	29%	6%	86	+0.3	189/253/342	153	230	21	0	28%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Brandon Dixon 2022 · MLB	30	48	52→60	51→55	39	243/292/413	171	325	20	9	31%	6%	97	+1.1	244/303/457	213	319	29	14	32%	7%	112	+2.2	229/288/435	206	305	29	14	34%	6%	101	+0.7
✕Jose Leon 2007 · MLB	30	47	54→55	49→30	42	245/289/417	172	292	23	5	25%	6%	97	+1.1	245/297/388	143	293	17	5	22%	6%	93	+0.8	246/297/378	132	296	16	1	22%	6%	86	+0.1
✕Mike Wilson 2013 · MLB	30	44→53	52→55	47→50	46	229/299/392	163	293	20	8	28%	8%	95	+0.9	218/278/361	143	304	17	7	32%	7%	80	-0.2	203/263/335	132	288	17	4	34%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Michael Restovich 2009 · MLB	30	44→48	54→55	46→30	40	229/280/405	176	303	22	6	32%	6%	91	+0.6	228/278/375	147	301	16	3	28%	6%	82	+0.0	220/271/358	138	292	15	0	29%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Hiram Bocachica 2006 · MLB	30	46	50→55	46→55	46	232/297/386	154	294	18	14	27%	8%	93	+0.8	241/322/413	172	275	21	21	20%	9%	108	+1.9	232/317/398	166	261	20	22	19%	9%	101	+0.7
✕Kyle Garlick 2022 · MLB	30	44→49	57→60	49→40	40	233/289/438	205	304	25	7	32%	6%	102	+1.5	208/271/373	165	284	22	4	34%	7%	80	-0.1	178/246/318	140	247	19	1	35%	7%	58	-1.2
✕Armando Alvarez 2024 · AAA	30	45→47	51→55	49→50	45	233/281/393	160	267	19	10	21%	6%	88	+0.4	235/295/377	142	296	16	9	25%	7%	89	+0.5	229/294/358	129	294	15	6	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Donnie Murphy 2013 · MLB	30	42→40	57→65	48→45	43	226/288/428	202	267	24	5	26%	6%	99	+1.3	209/272/367	158	261	20	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	193/257/332	140	240	18	4	28%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Mikie Mahtook 2021 · MLB	31	40→50	54→55	48→50	44	215/281/392	177	269	23	13	29%	7%	88	+0.5	208/262/364	156	264	20	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	181/231/331	150	221	21	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	41→45	53→55	47→50	42	221/269/389	168	259	21	8	24%	5%	83	+0.1	220/266/371	151	262	17	11	23%	5%	77	-0.3	213/256/362	149	251	16	10	22%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Valentino Pascucci 2009 · AAA	30	43→42	55	47→45	49	225/311/404	179	288	23	7	30%	10%	102	+1.5	211/290/375	164	282	21	4	31%	10%	88	+0.4	194/280/355	161	272	21	0	35%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Andrew Brown 2014 · MLB	29	46	54→55	46→40	44	236/298/420	184	304	21	5	29%	8%	101	+1.4	228/293/402	174	285	21	5	27%	7%	95	+0.9	212/278/382	171	257	23	2	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Mike Brosseau 2024 · MLB	30	41→51	51→55	47→45	43	215/285/366	151	273	20	6	29%	7%	84	+0.1	207/275/321	114	260	14	7	26%	7%	70	-0.9	192/263/287	95	241	13	5	25%	7%	55	-1.2
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕JaCoby Jones 2021 · MLB	29	48→50	53→50	49→50	42	241/307/427	187	318	19	12	30%	7%	106	+1.8	202/258/319	117	329	13	7	40%	6%	63	-1.4	172/223/256	84	296	10	5	43%	5%	32	-1.6
✕David Cook 2011 · AAA	30	42→49	50→55	47→50	47	218/287/373	155	269	18	10	26%	8%	86	+0.3	213/283/334	121	297	11	9	30%	8%	75	-0.5	201/278/309	108	289	9	6	31%	8%	65	-0.9
✕Joe Borchard 2009 · MLB	30	46→43	51→55	46→45	47	235/299/393	159	290	19	9	26%	8%	95	+0.9	208/258/355	147	276	16	5	30%	6%	70	-0.8	194/242/338	144	257	16	1	31%	5%	58	-1.2
✕Danny Espinosa 2017 · MLB	30	41→50	52→55	49→50	43	217/289/378	161	272	21	9	28%	7%	88	+0.5	196/259/330	134	263	17	10	32%	6%	66	-1.1	179/237/299	120	244	16	12	33%	5%	50	-1.4
●Sean Rodríguez 2015 · MLB	30	42→51	53→60	46→50	43	223/284/400	177	266	20	7	25%	6%	91	+0.7	239/301/420	181	303	22	6	28%	6%	102	+1.5	232/303/407	174	303	23	4	30%	7%	101	+0.6

Austin Riley

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps