Manny Machado

3B San Diego Padres

Age 35 R/R 6'2" / 218 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 14.326 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	MLBSD	643	.275/.327/.472	29	11	121	3.5
2025	33	MLBSD	678	.275/.337/.460	27	14	123	3.5
2026	34	MLBSD	677	.217/.308/.407	30	5	98	1.6
2027PROJ	35	MLBSD	537	.249/.324/.444	23	6	116	2.5
2028PROJ	36	MLBSD	432	.236/.310/.416	18	1	105	0.7
2029PROJ	37	MLBSD	350	.224/.296/.387	13	1	93	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2033Service14.326First FA2034

2027Ext$32M2028Ext$32M2029Ext$32M2030Ext$32M2031Ext$32M2032Ext$32M2033Ext$32M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

xwOBA78

Barrel%70

Bat Spd67

Speed10

Form.251/.330/.449 · rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .252/.324/.447

CompsTodd Frazier (age 34) · Mendy López (age 35) · Jorge Cantu (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 119116vR 107

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .324 / .444

PA537

HR23

SB6

K%21

BB%10

BABIP274

ISO190

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$71M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

610.260

POWER

Barrel%

7011.2

Avg EV

9091.8

Bat Spd

6773.2

SPEED

Sprint

1025.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%21%·22% over 60 PA (45d) · proj 21%

BB%10%▲11% over 114 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.198·.204 over 98 AB (60d) · proj .195

HR/BB6.7%·7.5% over 80 BBE (60d) · proj 6.2%

BABIP.277·.243 over 74 BIP (60d) · proj .280

SLASH.251/.330/.449·proj .252/.324/.447

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1407 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

332

1075

—

wRC+

123

115

◀L

wOBA

350

338

◀L

ISO

229

173

◀◀L

BABIP

263

309

▶R

20.2%

19.3%

▶R

BB%

9.0%

6.8%

◀◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 14.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$32M	+2.4	$19M	-$13M
2028	Ext	$32M	+0.7	$3M	-$26M
2029	Ext	$32M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$95M		$21M	-$65M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$65M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	19	A+	Frederick Keys	—	260	237	58	12	3	5	22	48	0	8	5	245	309	384	693	139	286	18	8	309	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	170	145	40	8	2	6	23	25	1	3	1	276	379	483	861	207	296	15	14	379	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	202	191	50	8	3	7	9	38	0	2	0	262	295	445	740	183	293	19	4	321	98	-0	+0	+6	+2	+4	1.3
2012	20	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	459	402	107	26	5	11	48	70	6	13	4	266	353	438	791	172	297	15	10	351	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	710	667	189	51	3	14	29	113	2	6	7	283	315	432	747	148	322	16	4	325	103	+3	-2	+23	+3	+15	4.3
2014	22	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	327	91	14	0	12	20	68	3	2	0	278	326	431	757	153	317	19	6	333	104	+2	+0	+8	+1	+8	1.9
2015	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	713	633	181	30	1	35	70	111	4	20	8	286	361	502	863	216	297	16	10	377	133	+28	+1	+8	+3	+15	5.6
2016	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	696	640	188	40	1	37	48	120	3	0	3	294	346	533	879	239	309	17	7	381	131	+25	-1	+9	+2	+15	5.2
2017	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	690	630	163	33	1	33	50	115	1	9	4	259	314	471	786	213	265	17	7	341	108	+7	+0	-3	+2	+15	2.2
2018	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	709	632	188	35	3	37	70	104	2	14	2	297	369	538	907	241	304	15	10	394	144	+37	+2	+8	+8	+15	7.1
2019	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	661	587	150	21	2	32	65	128	6	5	3	256	336	462	798	206	274	19	10	352	123	+18	-0	-4	+2	+14	3.1
2020	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	254	224	68	12	1	16	26	37	0	6	3	304	376	580	956	277	297	15	10	408	157	+17	+0	+3	+1	+6	2.7
2021	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	640	564	157	31	2	28	63	102	2	12	3	278	353	489	842	211	290	16	10	365	128	+21	+1	+4	+2	+14	4.3
2022	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	644	578	172	37	1	32	63	133	1	9	1	298	368	531	899	234	337	21	10	392	147	+36	+1	+8	+2	+14	6.3
2023	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	601	543	140	21	0	30	50	109	2	3	2	258	323	462	785	204	268	18	8	343	119	+13	-0	+10	+2	+13	3.9
2024	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	643	593	163	30	0	29	45	124	1	11	2	275	327	472	799	197	302	19	7	350	121	+16	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.5
2025	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	678	615	169	33	0	27	55	131	3	14	3	275	337	460	797	185	307	19	8	351	123	+19	+2	-3	+2	+15	3.5
2026	34	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	677	589	128	22	0	30	76	144	1	5	4	217	308	407	715	190	231	21	11	315	98	-1	-1	+0	+2	+15	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	8872	8013	2197	418	18	399	739	1577	31	118	45	274	338	480	818	206	294	18	8	357	128	+293	+6	+77	+38	+192	61.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	19	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	260	243	52	11	3	4	16	66	0	8	5	214	263	333	596	119	271	25	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	170	155	39	8	2	5	13	33	1	3	1	252	314	426	739	174	279	19	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	202	191	49	8	3	6	9	38	0	2	0	257	290	424	714	168	293	19	4	314	98	-0	+0	+6	+2	+4	1.3
2012	20	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	459	414	102	25	5	9	36	85	6	13	4	246	316	396	712	150	285	19	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	710	667	188	52	3	13	29	113	2	6	7	282	314	427	741	145	322	16	4	321	103	+3	-2	+23	+3	+15	4.3
2014	22	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	329	89	14	0	11	18	68	3	2	0	271	314	413	728	143	317	19	5	322	104	+2	+0	+8	+1	+8	1.9
2015	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	713	635	178	31	1	32	68	111	4	20	8	280	354	483	837	203	297	16	10	365	133	+28	+1	+8	+3	+15	5.6
2016	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	696	649	184	41	1	33	39	120	3	0	3	284	327	502	829	219	309	17	6	361	131	+25	-1	+9	+2	+15	5.2
2017	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	690	633	160	34	1	30	47	115	1	9	4	253	305	452	757	199	265	17	7	328	108	+7	+0	-3	+2	+15	2.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	709	650	190	37	4	35	52	104	2	14	2	292	347	523	870	231	304	15	7	380	144	+37	+2	+8	+8	+15	7.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	661	590	151	22	2	31	62	128	6	5	3	256	333	458	790	202	274	19	9	350	123	+18	-0	-4	+2	+14	3.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	254	228	69	13	1	16	22	37	0	6	3	303	364	579	943	276	297	15	9	400	157	+17	+0	+3	+1	+6	2.7
2021	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	640	574	159	33	2	27	53	102	2	12	3	277	340	483	823	206	290	16	8	357	128	+21	+1	+4	+2	+14	4.3
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	644	588	175	40	1	31	53	133	1	9	1	298	357	527	884	230	337	21	8	385	147	+36	+1	+8	+2	+14	6.3
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	601	544	141	22	0	29	49	109	2	3	2	259	323	460	782	200	268	18	8	344	119	+13	-0	+10	+2	+13	3.9
2024	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	599	165	32	0	28	39	124	1	11	2	275	321	469	790	194	302	19	6	347	121	+16	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.5
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	678	619	171	35	0	26	51	131	3	14	3	276	334	459	793	183	307	19	8	350	123	+19	+2	-3	+2	+15	3.5
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	677	592	130	24	0	29	73	144	1	5	4	220	306	407	713	187	231	21	11	313	98	-1	-1	+0	+2	+15	1.6
2011	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	430	399	89	19	4	8	28	99	1	11	6	223	276	351	627	128	276	23	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	430	382	98	20	5	11	45	73	1	11	6	257	336	421	758	165	290	17	10	337	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	661	605	151	33	8	15	45	123	6	15	4	250	308	405	713	155	289	19	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	661	593	157	34	8	18	57	108	6	15	4	265	335	440	776	175	296	16	9	342	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	710	667	188	52	3	13	29	113	2	6	7	282	314	427	741	145	322	16	4	321	103	+3	-2	+23	+3	+15	4.3
2013	21	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	710	667	189	51	3	14	29	113	2	6	7	283	315	432	747	148	322	16	4	325	103	+3	-2	+23	+3	+15	4.3
2014	22	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	329	89	14	0	11	18	68	3	2	0	271	314	413	728	143	310	19	5	322	104	+2	+0	+8	+1	+8	1.9
2014	22	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	327	91	14	0	12	20	68	3	2	0	278	326	431	757	153	317	19	6	333	104	+2	+0	+8	+1	+8	1.9
2015	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	713	635	178	31	1	32	68	111	4	20	8	280	354	483	837	203	294	16	10	365	133	+28	+1	+8	+3	+15	5.6
2015	23	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	713	633	181	30	1	35	70	111	4	20	8	286	361	502	863	216	297	16	10	377	133	+28	+1	+8	+3	+15	5.6
2016	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	696	649	184	41	1	33	39	120	3	0	3	284	327	502	829	219	301	17	6	361	131	+25	-1	+9	+2	+15	5.2
2016	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	696	640	188	40	1	37	48	120	3	0	3	294	346	533	879	239	309	17	7	381	131	+25	-1	+9	+2	+15	5.2
2017	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	690	633	160	34	1	30	47	115	1	9	4	253	305	452	757	199	262	17	7	328	108	+7	+0	-3	+2	+15	2.2
2017	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	690	630	163	33	1	33	50	115	1	9	4	259	314	471	786	213	265	17	7	341	108	+7	+0	-3	+2	+15	2.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	709	650	190	37	4	35	52	104	2	14	2	292	347	523	870	231	300	15	7	380	144	+37	+2	+8	+8	+15	7.1
2018	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	709	632	188	35	3	37	70	104	2	14	2	297	369	538	907	241	304	15	10	394	144	+37	+2	+8	+8	+15	7.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	661	590	151	22	2	31	62	128	6	5	3	256	333	458	790	202	276	19	9	350	123	+18	-0	-4	+2	+14	3.1
2019	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	661	587	150	21	2	32	65	128	6	5	3	256	336	462	798	206	274	19	10	352	123	+18	-0	-4	+2	+14	3.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	254	228	69	13	1	16	22	37	0	6	3	303	364	579	943	276	296	15	9	400	157	+17	+0	+3	+1	+6	2.7
2020	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	254	224	68	12	1	16	26	37	0	6	3	304	376	580	956	277	297	15	10	408	157	+17	+0	+3	+1	+6	2.7
2021	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	640	574	159	33	2	27	53	102	2	12	3	277	340	483	823	206	289	16	8	357	128	+21	+1	+4	+2	+14	4.3
2021	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	640	564	157	31	2	28	63	102	2	12	3	278	353	489	842	211	290	16	10	365	128	+21	+1	+4	+2	+14	4.3
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	644	588	175	40	1	31	53	133	1	9	1	298	357	527	884	230	338	21	8	385	147	+36	+1	+8	+2	+14	6.3
2022	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	644	578	172	37	1	32	63	133	1	9	1	298	368	531	899	234	337	21	10	392	147	+36	+1	+8	+2	+14	6.3
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	601	544	141	22	0	29	49	109	2	3	2	259	323	460	782	200	272	18	8	344	119	+13	-0	+10	+2	+13	3.9
2023	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	601	543	140	21	0	30	50	109	2	3	2	258	323	462	785	204	268	18	8	343	119	+13	-0	+10	+2	+13	3.9
2024	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	599	165	32	0	28	39	124	1	11	2	275	321	469	790	194	304	19	6	347	121	+16	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.5
2024	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	643	593	163	30	0	29	45	124	1	11	2	275	327	472	799	197	302	19	7	350	121	+16	+1	+1	+2	+14	3.5
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	678	619	171	35	0	26	51	131	3	14	3	276	334	459	793	183	310	19	8	350	123	+19	+2	-3	+2	+15	3.5
2025	33	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	678	615	169	33	0	27	55	131	3	14	3	275	337	460	797	185	307	19	8	351	123	+19	+2	-3	+2	+15	3.5
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	677	592	130	24	0	29	73	144	1	5	4	220	306	407	713	187	235	21	11	313	98	-1	-1	+0	+2	+15	1.6
2026	34	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	677	589	128	22	0	30	76	144	1	5	4	217	308	407	715	190	231	21	11	315	98	-1	-1	+0	+2	+15	1.6
2011	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	430	398	89	19	4	8	28	99	1	11	6	224	276	352	627	128	274	23	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	661	605	151	33	8	15	45	123	6	15	4	250	308	405	713	155	287	19	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	710	673	188	52	3	13	29	113	2	6	7	279	314	423	737	144	322	16	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	330	89	14	0	11	18	68	3	2	0	270	314	412	726	142	317	19	5	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	713	635	178	31	1	32	68	111	4	20	8	280	354	483	837	203	297	16	10	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	696	649	184	41	1	33	39	120	3	0	3	284	327	502	829	219	309	17	6	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	690	637	160	34	1	30	47	115	1	9	4	251	305	449	754	198	265	17	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	709	649	190	37	4	35	52	104	2	14	2	293	347	524	870	231	304	15	7	380	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	661	588	151	22	2	31	62	128	6	5	3	257	333	459	792	202	274	19	9	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	254	230	69	13	1	16	22	37	0	6	3	300	364	574	938	274	297	15	9	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	640	580	159	33	2	27	53	102	2	12	3	274	340	478	818	203	290	16	8	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	644	585	175	40	1	31	53	133	1	9	1	299	357	530	887	231	337	21	8	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	601	545	141	22	0	29	49	109	2	3	2	259	323	459	781	200	268	18	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	598	165	32	0	28	39	124	1	11	2	276	321	470	791	194	302	19	6	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	678	619	171	35	0	26	51	131	3	14	3	276	334	459	793	183	307	19	8	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	677	598	130	24	0	29	73	144	1	5	4	217	306	403	709	186	231	21	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	643	598	165	32	0	28	39	124	1	11	2	276	321	470	791	194	302	19	6	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	678	619	171	35	0	26	51	131	3	14	3	276	334	459	793	183	307	19	8	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	677	598	130	24	0	29	73	144	1	5	4	217	306	403	709	186	231	21	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	100%	597	533	134	27	0	25	57	123	2	7	2	252	327	447	773	195	280	21	10	340	116	+12	+1	-0	+2	+13	2.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	100%	537	478	118	22	0	23	52	111	2	6	2	249	324	444	768	195	274	21	10	338	116	+11	+0	-0	+2	+12	2.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	100%	432	388	93	18	0	17	40	93	1	1	1	239	313	418	731	179	269	22	9	323	105	+3	-0	-7	+2	+9	0.7
2029	37	MLB MLE	SD	100%	350	314	72	13	0	13	32	78	1	1	1	227	299	389	688	163	258	22	9	306	93	-3	-0	-7	+1	+8	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	100%	432	388	91	16	0	18	40	93	1	1	1	236	310	416	726	179	264	22	9	321	105	+3	-0	-7	+2	+9	0.7
2029	37	MLB CTX	SD	100%	350	314	70	12	0	13	32	78	1	1	1	224	296	387	683	163	254	22	9	304	93	-3	-0	-7	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	9654	8715	2358	446	18	430	811	1748	33	120	47	271	335	474	809	203	291	18	8	353	118	+292	+5	+63	+41	+209	62.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	159	30	1	29	55	118	2	8	3	271	335	474	809	203	292	18	8	353	118	+20	+0	+4	+3	+14	4.2
Career	—	MLE		—	11080	10081	2676	537	28	447	852	2043	42	150	59	265	325	457	783	192	290	18	8	342	118	+303	+6	+63	+43	+221	64.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	158	32	2	26	50	120	2	9	3	267	326	460	786	193	293	18	8	342	118	+19	+0	+4	+3	+14	4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2012 AABowie Baysox · 459 PAwOBA .343 → .308 (−35)K% 15.3% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.25%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.46%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.86%
HBP% /PA	1.31%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.17%
Singles /BIP	19.58%	÷1.027	×0.970	×0.975	×1.050	18.93%
Doubles /BIP	7.83%	÷0.932	×0.860	×0.975	×1.050	7.40%
Triples /BIP	1.51%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.975	×1.050	1.63%
Home runs /BIP	3.31%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.67%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 105, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .343 → .308; ISO .172 → .154; BABIP .297 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+Frederick Keys · 260 PAwOBA .302 → .254 (−48)K% 18.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.46%	÷1.027	×1.420	—	—	25.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.46%	÷0.936	×0.630	—	×1.050	5.98%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.11%	÷1.002	×0.940	×0.972	×1.050	19.25%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷0.904	×0.830	×0.972	×1.050	5.95%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷0.900	×0.800	×0.972	×1.050	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	2.65%	÷1.173	×0.900	—	×1.050	2.13%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 100, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .302 → .254; ISO .139 → .114; BABIP .286 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 170 PAwOBA .364 → .317 (−47)K% 14.7% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.71%	÷1.016	×1.340	—	—	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.18%	÷1.034	×0.660	—	×1.045	7.45%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.47%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.985	×0.920	×0.979	×1.045	19.10%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.850	×0.820	×0.979	×1.045	6.58%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.979	×1.045	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.135	×0.820	—	×1.045	3.77%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 97, 2B 70, 3B 130, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .364 → .317; ISO .207 → .176; BABIP .296 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Rolen'96-'12 * career totals — 17 seasons, 8,518 PA	12.8	8,518	316	118	271*	352*	479*	+30	+75	64.8	53.9
/162	664	25	9	+2.4	+5.8	5.1	pk7: 43
#2Evan Longorialast yr '23 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,206 PA	12.4	8,206	342	58	264	333	471	+29	+110	61.2	51.8
/162	664	28	5	+2.4	+8.9	5.0	pk7: 42
#3Buddy Bell'72-'89 * career totals — 18 seasons, 10,009 PA	15.1	10,009	201	55	277*	341*	437*	+28	+138	60.4	50.1
/162	664	13	4	+1.9	+9.1	4.0	pk7: 40
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 18 projected seasons	15.3	10,191	452	126	271	332	474	+20	+104	61.9	49.6
/162	664	29	8	+1.3	+6.8	4.0	pk7: 37
#4Ian Kinslerlast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,299 PA	12.5	8,299	257	243	269	337	440	+30	+66	53.0	44.4
/162	664	21	19	+2.4	+5.3	4.2	pk7: 36
#5Robin Ventura'89-'04 * career totals — 16 seasons, 8,271 PA	12.5	8,271	294	24	258*	350*	441*	+15	+46	50.5	42.7
/162	664	24	2	+1.2	+3.7	4.1	pk7: 35
#6Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	9.3	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.4	32.4
/162	664	26	6	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manny Machado (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	250/324/443	193	280	23	6	21%	10%	116	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Todd Frazier 2020 · MLB	34	44→52	55→60	42→50	52	235/322/420	185	268	24	6	22%	10%	110	+2.1	235/309/391	156	280	18	6	22%	8%	99	+1.2	243/309/394	151	308	14	3	24%	6%	99	+0.4
✕Mendy López 2009 · AAA	35	48→54	54→55	44→30	50	248/317/428	180	293	22	3	23%	9%	109	+2.0	246/313/397	151	312	18	3	25%	9%	101	+1.4	246/318/398	152	315	20	1	27%	9%	102	+0.7
✕Jorge Cantu 2016 · AAA	34	51→58	55	48→40	47	264/320/449	185	285	23	6	18%	6%	116	+2.5	226/282/349	123	273	13	6	22%	6%	78	-0.3	201/259/306	105	251	12	3	24%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Mario Valenzuela 2012 · AAA	35	51→57	54→55	48→40	47	265/318/442	178	302	23	6	21%	7%	114	+2.3	252/300/391	139	310	17	4	23%	6%	94	+0.9	250/294/370	119	314	14	2	24%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Travis d'Arnaud 2024 · MLB	35	47→57	54→60	46→45	45	245/303/428	183	281	23	2	22%	6%	105	+1.7	228/291/397	169	286	21	3	27%	7%	93	+0.8	212/277/372	160	272	19	1	29%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Mark Reynolds 2019 · MLB	35	49→56	56→65	43→50	50	251/329/439	189	316	25	3	28%	10%	116	+2.5	226/314/391	165	306	20	8	30%	11%	100	+1.3	159/283/285	126	237	13	7	35%	14%	69	-0.3
●Todd Zeile 2001 · MLB	35	52→55	54→50	41→30	59	264/345/456	192	277	21	5	14%	11%	126	+3.2	261/344/406	145	293	16	3	16%	11%	114	+2.4	256/342/389	133	288	15	1	16%	11%	110	+1.8
✕Mark DeRosa 2010 · MLB	35	52→61	53→55	46→40	53	265/342/441	176	301	21	5	19%	10%	122	+2.9	241/314/361	120	286	13	6	20%	9%	93	+0.8	228/313/326	97	280	9	2	20%	10%	85	+0.1
✕Evan Longoria 2022 · MLB	36	49→57	57→65	42→50	50	259/327/461	202	295	25	4	22%	9%	121	+2.9	246/314/447	201	306	27	3	28%	9%	113	+2.3	235/304/437	202	293	29	0	30%	9%	108	+0.9
✕Kit Pellow 2009 · AAA	35	49→55	59→60	45→40	45	264/325/469	205	288	28	5	20%	6%	123	+3.0	245/294/385	140	275	16	5	18%	5%	91	+0.7	232/273/340	108	250	12	1	13%	3%	71	-0.5
✕Herbert Perry Jr. 2004 · MLB	34	50→60	54→55	45	50	260/317/440	180	273	22	6	15%	7%	113	+2.3	242/315/402	160	258	20	7	15%	8%	103	+1.5	221/307/360	140	223	20	0	12%	9%	92	+0.2
●Steve Pearce 2017 · MLB	34	49→58	56→60	39→50	53	258/334/455	197	286	24	4	20%	9%	122	+3.0	248/326/428	180	282	22	3	20%	9%	113	+2.3	237/318/409	172	272	21	0	21%	9%	107	+0.8
✕Eduardo Escobar 2023 · MLB	34	47→57	55→60	43→50	47	246/301/439	193	282	23	2	22%	7%	106	+1.8	237/290/391	154	292	17	6	24%	7%	91	+0.6	224/269/341	117	286	11	4	25%	6%	71	-0.4
●Casey Blake 2009 · MLB	35	53→54	53→60	45	49	267/330/445	177	306	20	5	20%	7%	118	+2.7	259/330/425	166	312	18	3	22%	9%	114	+2.3	254/331/412	158	312	16	2	23%	9%	112	+1.7
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Chris Iannetta 2018 · MLB	35	44→54	55→60	43→45	54	231/325/416	186	282	23	2	26%	11%	110	+2.1	226/320/395	169	287	20	3	27%	11%	103	+1.6	206/309/357	151	264	17	0	27%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Saul Soto 2014 · AAA	35	46→56	51→55	43→45	50	235/304/390	154	275	19	5	22%	8%	96	+1.0	238/311/364	126	282	14	4	20%	9%	93	+0.8	243/326/348	105	281	10	2	17%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Brandon Crawford 2022 · MLB	35	53→58	57→55	47→45	51	275/343/478	203	312	24	9	20%	9%	130	+3.5	237/310/386	149	287	17	6	23%	8%	97	+1.1	216/291/335	119	265	13	3	23%	8%	80	-0.1
●Ruben Mateo 2013 · AAA	35	47→50	57→60	39→45	41	251/292/445	194	270	26	5	19%	4%	105	+1.7	244/304/428	184	272	24	3	20%	5%	105	+1.7	233/299/406	173	260	24	1	21%	5%	97	+0.7
✕AJ Pollock 2023 · MLB	35	51→61	54→65	48→55	47	262/311/443	181	292	22	7	19%	6%	111	+2.1	233/288/392	159	268	19	7	21%	7%	91	+0.6	167/219/317	150	176	22	0	22%	6%	49	-0.6

Manny Machado

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps