Manny Machado — OGILVIE

Manny Machado3B San Diego Padres

Age 34 R/R 6'2" / 218 lbs MLB HR +13%BB +8% Svc 13.326 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.7 · 2026

wRC+†vL 113108vR 108

AVG/OBP/SLG.263 / .325 / .450

PA598

HR25

SB8

K%19

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

58↗65

PWR

51↗55

SPD

40→40

FLD

55↗60

EYE

50→50

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 13.326 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$32M	+2.7	$22M	-$10M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$32M	+1.7	$14M	-$18M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$32M	+1.0	$8M	-$23M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$32M	+0.3	$1M	-$30M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$32M	—	—	—
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$32M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$191M		$40M	-$150M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$150M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2011	19	A+	2 teams	430	401	85	18	4	9	26	98	1	11	6	.212	.262	.344	.606	.132	.257	23	6	.264	61	-19	-0	+0	+2	+12	-0.6
2012	20	AA	2 teams	661	607	148	31	10	16	43	128	6	15	4	.244	.300	.407	.707	.163	.283	19	7	.304	91	-7	+1	+6	+2	+19	2.2
2013	21	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	710	667	189	54	3	13	29	113	2	6	7	.283	.315	.432	.747	.148	.324	16	4	.320	103	+2	-2	+23	+3	+20	4.7
2014	22	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	354	327	91	14	0	12	20	68	3	2	0	.278	.326	.431	.757	.153	.317	19	6	.331	112	+5	+0	+8	+1	+10	2.5
2015	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	713	633	179	32	1	32	70	111	4	20	8	.283	.358	.488	.846	.205	.298	16	10	.363	136	+29	+1	+8	+3	+20	6.2
2016	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	696	640	191	41	1	37	48	120	3	0	3	.298	.350	.539	.889	.241	.316	17	7	.366	139	+30	-1	+9	+2	+20	6.1
2017	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	690	630	162	35	1	30	50	115	1	9	4	.257	.313	.459	.772	.202	.267	17	7	.328	109	+7	+0	-3	+2	+20	2.6
2018	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	709	632	187	34	4	35	70	104	2	14	2	.296	.368	.528	.896	.233	.305	15	10	.364	137	+30	+2	+8	+8	+20	6.8
2019	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	661	587	153	23	2	32	65	128	6	5	3	.261	.340	.470	.811	.210	.281	19	10	.352	127	+20	-0	-4	+2	+19	3.8
2020	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	254	224	64	12	1	13	26	37	0	6	3	.286	.360	.522	.882	.237	.287	15	10	.360	134	+10	+0	+3	+1	+7	2.1
2021	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	640	564	156	29	2	28	63	102	2	12	3	.277	.351	.484	.835	.207	.288	16	10	.346	123	+16	+1	+4	+2	+18	4.3
2022	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	644	578	171	40	1	28	63	133	1	9	1	.296	.366	.514	.880	.218	.341	21	10	.369	140	+29	+1	+8	+2	+18	6.0
2023	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	601	543	137	21	0	31	50	109	2	3	2	.252	.318	.462	.780	.210	.259	18	8	.336	116	+11	-0	+10	+2	+17	4.0
2024	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	643	593	165	30	0	26	45	124	1	11	2	.278	.330	.460	.791	.182	.311	19	7	.337	116	+12	+1	+1	+2	+18	3.5
2025	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	678	615	169	37	0	24	55	131	3	14	3	.275	.337	.452	.789	.177	.312	19	8	.335	115	+11	+2	-3	+2	+19	3.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	34	MLB	San Diego Padres	101	82	16	2	0	2	17	21	0	1	1	.195	.333	.293	.626	.098	.230	21	17	.282	74	-3	-0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
ROS	34	MLB	SD	497	444	113	21	0	19	49	98	1	7	3	.255	.330	.430	.760	.176	.283	20	10	.336	115	+8	+0	+1	+2	+14	2.6
TOT	34	MLB	SD	598	526	129	23	0	21	66	119	1	8	4	.245	.331	.409	.739	.163	.277	20	11	.327	108	+5	+0	+2	+2	+17	2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	35	MLB	SD	528	471	116	21	0	19	51	87	1	6	3	.246	.321	.412	.733	.166	.264	16	10	.327	109	+5	+0	-4	+2	+15	1.8
2028	36	MLB	SD	465	416	100	18	0	16	45	81	1	5	2	.240	.316	.399	.715	.159	.261	17	10	.317	101	+1	+0	-5	+2	+13	1.1
2029	37	MLB	SD	398	356	83	15	0	12	38	74	1	3	1	.233	.309	.376	.685	.143	.257	19	10	.307	93	-3	+0	-6	+1	+11	0.4
2030	38	MLB	SD	327	293	65	11	0	9	30	63	1	2	1	.222	.296	.352	.648	.130	.252	19	9	.295	84	-6	+0	-7	+1	+9	-0.3
2031	39	MLB	SD	251	227	48	8	0	6	22	50	0	0	0	.211	.281	.326	.607	.115	.247	20	9	.283	75	-7	+0	-8	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11550	10448	2772	545	30	447	958	2074	42	160	61	.265	.329	.452	.781	.186	.290	18	8	.334	114	+184	+8	+46	+46	+327	62.4
/ 162G	—			650	588	156	31	2	25	54	117	2	9	3	.265	.329	.452	.782	.187	.290	18	8	.334	114	+10	+1	+3	+3	+18	3.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2011	19	A+	Frederick Keys	260	237	58	12	3	5	22	48	0	8	5	.245	.309	.384	.693	.139	.286	18	8	.309	95	-2	-0	—	—	+7	0.6
2011	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	170	145	40	8	2	6	23	25	1	3	1	.276	.379	.483	.861	.207	.296	15	14	.379	148	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2012	20	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	202	191	50	8	3	7	9	38	0	2	0	.262	.295	.445	.740	.183	.293	19	4	.321	104	+1	+0	+6	+2	+6	1.5
2012	20	AA	Bowie Baysox	459	402	107	26	5	11	48	70	6	13	4	.266	.353	.438	.791	.172	.297	15	10	.351	127	+14	+1	—	—	+13	2.8
2013	21	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	710	667	189	51	3	14	29	113	2	6	7	.283	.315	.432	.747	.148	.322	16	4	.325	107	+5	-2	+23	+3	+20	5.1
2014	22	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	354	327	91	14	0	12	20	68	3	2	0	.278	.326	.431	.757	.153	.317	19	6	.333	113	+5	+0	+8	+1	+10	2.6
2015	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	713	633	181	30	1	35	70	111	4	20	8	.286	.361	.502	.863	.216	.297	16	10	.377	147	+38	+1	+8	+3	+20	7.1
2016	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	696	640	188	40	1	37	48	120	3	0	3	.294	.346	.533	.879	.239	.309	17	7	.381	150	+39	-1	+9	+2	+20	7.0
2017	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	690	630	163	33	1	33	50	115	1	9	4	.259	.314	.471	.786	.213	.265	17	7	.341	119	+15	+0	-3	+2	+20	3.5
2018	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	709	632	188	35	3	37	70	104	2	14	2	.297	.369	.538	.907	.241	.304	15	10	.394	160	+48	+2	+8	+8	+20	8.7
2019	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	661	587	150	21	2	32	65	128	6	5	3	.256	.336	.462	.798	.206	.274	19	10	.352	127	+20	-0	-4	+2	+19	3.8
2020	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	254	224	68	12	1	16	26	37	0	6	3	.304	.376	.580	.956	.277	.297	15	10	.408	171	+20	+0	+3	+1	+7	3.2
2021	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	640	564	157	31	2	28	63	102	2	12	3	.278	.353	.489	.842	.211	.290	16	10	.365	137	+27	+1	+4	+2	+18	5.4
2022	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	644	578	172	37	1	32	63	133	1	9	1	.298	.368	.531	.899	.234	.337	21	10	.392	158	+43	+1	+8	+2	+18	7.4
2023	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	601	543	140	21	0	30	50	109	2	3	2	.258	.323	.462	.785	.204	.268	18	8	.343	121	+14	-0	+10	+2	+17	4.4
2024	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	643	593	163	30	0	29	45	124	1	11	2	.275	.327	.472	.799	.197	.302	19	7	.350	126	+19	+1	+1	+2	+18	4.3
2025	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	678	615	169	33	0	27	55	131	3	14	3	.275	.337	.460	.797	.185	.307	19	8	.351	127	+20	+2	-3	+2	+19	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			8195	7424	2069	396	18	369	663	1433	30	113	41	.279	.340	.486	.826	.207	.299	17	8	.360	134	+315	+6	+76	+36	+232	67.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manny Machado (OGILVIE)	34	58→65	51→55	40	50	.252/.327/.425	.173	.267	23	8	15%	10%	115	+2.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Herbert Perry Jr. 2004 · MLB	34	51→61	53→55	44→45	50	.261/.321/.440	.179	.276	21	6	15%	7%	115	+2.8	.243/.315/.404	.161	.258	20	7	15%	8%	104	+2.0	.221/.307/.360	.140	.223	20	0	12%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Jose Amador 2014 · AAA	34	52→62	53→55	39→45	44	.266/.320/.430	.165	.300	22	5	20%	6%	113	+2.6	.245/.312/.387	.142	.275	18	5	18%	7%	98	+1.6	.252/.329/.391	.140	.275	18	3	15%	8%	104	+1.4
●Casey Blake 2008 · MLB	34	52→56	53→60	43→45	51	.263/.333/.443	.180	.299	20	6	20%	8%	121	+3.2	.268/.343/.447	.179	.316	19	4	20%	9%	126	+3.5	.264/.342/.441	.177	.315	19	2	22%	9%	115	+2.7
✕Todd Frazier 2020 · MLB	34	44→54	55→65	42→50	54	.234/.327/.421	.187	.268	24	6	22%	10%	114	+2.7	.237/.312/.394	.157	.284	18	6	22%	8%	100	+1.7	.241/.307/.389	.148	.304	14	3	24%	6%	97	+0.4
✕Oscar Salazar 2011 · MLB	33	55→56	51→55	42→45	51	.275/.326/.442	.166	.300	18	5	15%	7%	118	+3.0	.230/.280/.349	.119	.269	13	9	19%	7%	74	-0.1	.199/.245/.278	.079	.242	9	10	22%	6%	39	-0.5
●Todd Zeile 2001 · MLB	35	52→56	54→50	41→30	60	.265/.350/.457	.192	.279	21	5	14%	11%	131	+3.9	.263/.349/.410	.147	.295	16	3	16%	11%	119	+3.1	.257/.346/.391	.134	.290	15	1	16%	11%	109	+2.0
✕Stephen Vogt 2019 · MLB	34	49→59	53→60	43→40	49	.249/.304/.425	.175	.272	20	3	17%	7%	104	+2.0	.236/.304/.423	.187	.278	21	6	22%	9%	104	+2.0	.210/.286/.392	.183	.243	22	3	24%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Brandon Inge 2011 · MLB	34	45→55	51→55	41→45	50	.231/.313/.395	.164	.279	19	5	24%	9%	101	+1.8	.220/.290/.362	.142	.277	17	3	26%	8%	82	+0.5	.200/.268/.326	.126	.254	15	1	27%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Manny Rodriguez 2016 · AAA	34	53→63	52→55	47→50	42	.268/.306/.431	.162	.284	20	10	14%	3%	108	+2.3	.256/.298/.399	.143	.280	16	14	15%	4%	95	+1.4	.237/.280/.351	.115	.264	13	11	16%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Chris Young 2018 · MLB	34	48→49	52→60	46→55	52	.244/.320/.419	.176	.283	19	8	21%	9%	110	+2.4	.229/.307/.405	.176	.275	21	10	24%	9%	102	+1.8	.166/.251/.355	.189	.182	28	9	29%	9%	63	-0.2
✕Pedro Feliz 2009 · MLB	34	49→54	52→60	43→45	49	.249/.293/.415	.166	.258	20	2	14%	6%	97	+1.5	.245/.285/.368	.123	.260	13	2	11%	5%	81	+0.4	.244/.281/.347	.103	.259	10	1	10%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Jhonny Peralta 2016 · MLB	34	55→61	51→55	37→40	51	.276/.339/.438	.162	.314	18	3	18%	8%	122	+3.3	.255/.311/.399	.144	.295	16	3	19%	7%	100	+1.7	.243/.290/.371	.128	.284	13	0	19%	6%	83	+0.2
●Marty Cordova 2002 · MLB	33	54→58	54→55	39→40	47	.277/.333/.452	.174	.307	22	5	18%	6%	124	+3.4	.261/.331/.440	.179	.301	21	4	20%	9%	120	+3.1	.250/.324/.430	.179	.293	21	1	22%	9%	109	+2.0
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	48→54	52→55	47→45	49	.248/.314/.415	.168	.287	19	7	21%	8%	106	+2.2	.253/.316/.417	.164	.290	17	7	19%	7%	107	+2.2	.276/.335/.428	.152	.308	13	6	14%	6%	111	+1.6
●Jay Payton 2006 · MLB	33	54→61	52→55	44→50	52	.272/.325/.436	.164	.279	20	4	12%	7%	116	+2.8	.268/.308/.398	.130	.283	13	7	10%	5%	98	+1.6	.266/.304/.381	.115	.284	10	9	10%	5%	89	+0.8
●Saul Soto 2013 · AAA	34	50→60	50→60	42→45	52	.252/.323/.405	.153	.285	18	6	19%	9%	107	+2.2	.254/.324/.419	.165	.299	21	4	22%	9%	111	+2.5	.254/.331/.409	.155	.298	20	1	21%	9%	111	+1.8
✕Juan Rivera 2012 · MLB	34	52→62	50→60	41→40	52	.264/.322/.419	.155	.277	19	4	13%	8%	110	+2.4	.246/.297/.373	.127	.261	14	5	12%	6%	88	+0.9	.242/.283/.354	.112	.251	13	2	10%	4%	72	-0.1
●Bengie Molina 2008 · MLB	34	54→58	53→55	40→30	47	.278/.312/.442	.164	.278	22	2	10%	4%	112	+2.6	.271/.304/.423	.152	.276	19	2	10%	4%	104	+2.0	.265/.301/.400	.135	.270	16	0	9%	4%	90	+0.9
✕Rondell White 2006 · MLB	34	56→62	54→60	41→40	49	.286/.339/.469	.183	.304	21	3	14%	6%	131	+3.9	.251/.294/.392	.141	.275	16	4	15%	5%	92	+1.2	.229/.266/.346	.117	.252	13	1	15%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Jesus Valdez 2019 · AAA	34	54→64	55→60	44→45	45	.280/.321/.466	.186	.301	24	6	16%	5%	122	+3.3	.262/.299/.433	.171	.287	22	6	17%	5%	105	+2.1	.268/.302/.440	.172	.287	25	1	17%	4%	104	+1.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)