Zach Neto
SS Los Angeles Angels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MLBLAA | 602 | .249/.318/.443 | 23 | 30 | 113 | 3.2 | |
| 2025 | 24 | AAALAA | 58 | .286/.397/.592 | 4 | 1 | 114 | — | .235/.328/.471 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBLAA | 554 | .257/.321/.474 | 26 | 26 | 117 | 2.9 | |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBLAA | 704 | .239/.330/.436 | 27 | 24 | 117 | 3.9 | |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBLAA | 614 | .237/.314/.441 | 26 | 25 | 112 | 2.6 | |
| 2028PROJ | 27 | MLBLAA | 614 | .236/.314/.438 | 26 | 24 | 111 | 2.5 | |
| 2029PROJ | 28 | MLBLAA | 614 | .234/.312/.434 | 26 | 22 | 109 | 2.3 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 122 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 320 | 385 | 492 | 877 | 172 | 389 | 21 | 6 | 387 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 31 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 355 | 400 | 755 | 200 | 200 | 13 | 13 | 344 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 329 | 289 | 65 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 77 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 225 | 311 | 377 | 688 | 152 | 272 | 23 | 6 | 309 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 16 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 438 | 846 | 1.284 | 538 | 286 | 25 | 6 | 532 | 163 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 34 | 27 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 444 | 559 | 815 | 1.374 | 370 | 562 | 24 | 18 | 579 | 239 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 602 | 542 | 135 | 34 | 1 | 23 | 39 | 140 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 249 | 318 | 443 | 761 | 194 | 295 | 23 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +9 | +2 | -0 | +6 | +13 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 554 | 502 | 129 | 29 | 1 | 26 | 33 | 149 | 14 | 26 | 9 | 257 | 321 | 474 | 795 | 217 | 312 | 27 | 6 | 347 | 117 | +11 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +12 | 2.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 58 | 49 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 286 | 397 | 592 | 988 | 306 | 312 | 22 | 12 | 429 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 704 | 619 | 148 | 31 | 5 | 27 | 70 | 215 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 239 | 330 | 436 | 766 | 197 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 341 | 117 | +14 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +15 | 3.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 2189 | 1952 | 477 | 111 | 7 | 85 | 162 | 581 | 60 | 85 | 32 | 244 | 322 | 439 | 761 | 195 | 303 | 27 | 7 | 336 | 114 | +35 | +4 | +1 | +25 | +47 | 11.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 125 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 288 | 341 | 432 | 773 | 144 | 369 | 26 | 4 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 31 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 323 | 385 | 707 | 192 | 170 | 16 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 329 | 289 | 66 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 77 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 228 | 314 | 384 | 698 | 156 | 272 | 23 | 6 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 375 | 538 | 913 | 308 | 242 | 31 | 6 | 409 | 163 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 34 | 30 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 400 | 471 | 733 | 1.204 | 333 | 538 | 26 | 9 | 521 | 239 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 602 | 543 | 136 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 140 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 250 | 318 | 446 | 764 | 195 | 295 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | +9 | +2 | -0 | +6 | +13 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 554 | 508 | 129 | 30 | 1 | 25 | 27 | 149 | 14 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 310 | 465 | 774 | 211 | 312 | 27 | 5 | 341 | 117 | +11 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +12 | 2.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 58 | 51 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 235 | 328 | 471 | 798 | 235 | 276 | 28 | 9 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 704 | 620 | 148 | 32 | 5 | 26 | 69 | 215 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 239 | 329 | 432 | 761 | 194 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 341 | 117 | +14 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +15 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 151 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 272 | 337 | 424 | 761 | 152 | 343 | 24 | 5 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 167 | 147 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 299 | 380 | 476 | 856 | 177 | 355 | 20 | 7 | 379 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 332 | 81 | 20 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 91 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 244 | 331 | 422 | 752 | 178 | 294 | 24 | 6 | 333 | 112 | +5 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +8 | 2.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 379 | 329 | 81 | 19 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 89 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 246 | 339 | 432 | 770 | 185 | 293 | 23 | 7 | 342 | 112 | +5 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +8 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 602 | 543 | 136 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 140 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 250 | 318 | 446 | 764 | 195 | 297 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | +9 | +2 | -0 | +6 | +13 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB RAW | Los Angeles Angels | — | 602 | 542 | 135 | 34 | 1 | 23 | 39 | 140 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 249 | 318 | 443 | 761 | 194 | 295 | 23 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +9 | +2 | -0 | +6 | +13 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 612 | 559 | 141 | 33 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 165 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 252 | 311 | 465 | 776 | 213 | 306 | 27 | 5 | 340 | 116 | +12 | +1 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 3.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 612 | 551 | 143 | 32 | 1 | 30 | 40 | 162 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 260 | 328 | 485 | 812 | 225 | 312 | 26 | 7 | 355 | 116 | +12 | +1 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 704 | 620 | 148 | 32 | 5 | 26 | 69 | 215 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 239 | 329 | 432 | 761 | 194 | 321 | 31 | 10 | 341 | 117 | +14 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +15 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | Los Angeles Angels | — | 704 | 619 | 148 | 31 | 5 | 27 | 70 | 215 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 239 | 330 | 436 | 766 | 197 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 341 | 117 | +14 | +0 | +1 | +8 | +15 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 150 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 273 | 337 | 427 | 764 | 153 | 332 | 24 | 5 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 333 | 81 | 20 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 91 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 243 | 331 | 420 | 751 | 177 | 294 | 24 | 6 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 602 | 543 | 136 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 140 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 250 | 318 | 446 | 764 | 195 | 295 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 612 | 559 | 141 | 33 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 165 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 252 | 311 | 465 | 776 | 213 | 309 | 27 | 5 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 704 | 615 | 148 | 32 | 5 | 26 | 69 | 215 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 241 | 329 | 436 | 764 | 195 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 602 | 543 | 136 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 140 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 250 | 318 | 446 | 764 | 195 | 295 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 612 | 559 | 141 | 33 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 165 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 252 | 311 | 465 | 776 | 213 | 309 | 27 | 5 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 704 | 615 | 148 | 32 | 5 | 26 | 69 | 215 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 241 | 329 | 436 | 764 | 195 | 320 | 31 | 10 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 633 | 564 | 135 | 29 | 3 | 27 | 50 | 177 | 14 | 26 | 6 | 238 | 315 | 441 | 757 | 204 | 294 | 28 | 8 | 333 | 112 | +9 | +3 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 3.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 614 | 546 | 129 | 27 | 3 | 26 | 49 | 171 | 14 | 25 | 6 | 237 | 314 | 441 | 755 | 204 | 291 | 28 | 8 | 333 | 112 | +9 | +3 | -5 | +7 | +13 | 2.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 614 | 547 | 130 | 28 | 3 | 26 | 49 | 172 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 237 | 315 | 439 | 753 | 202 | 293 | 28 | 8 | 332 | 111 | +8 | +2 | -5 | +7 | +13 | 2.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 614 | 547 | 129 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 49 | 174 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 235 | 313 | 434 | 747 | 199 | 293 | 28 | 8 | 329 | 109 | +7 | +2 | -6 | +7 | +13 | 2.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 614 | 548 | 128 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 48 | 175 | 13 | 19 | 5 | 233 | 310 | 428 | 738 | 196 | 291 | 29 | 8 | 326 | 107 | +5 | +2 | -7 | +7 | +13 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 614 | 548 | 125 | 27 | 2 | 24 | 48 | 177 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 230 | 306 | 421 | 727 | 191 | 289 | 29 | 8 | 321 | 104 | +3 | +1 | -7 | +7 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 594 | 531 | 120 | 26 | 2 | 23 | 46 | 174 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 225 | 302 | 411 | 712 | 185 | 286 | 29 | 8 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +1 | -8 | +6 | +13 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 573 | 514 | 113 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 43 | 170 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 220 | 295 | 397 | 692 | 177 | 281 | 30 | 8 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +0 | -8 | +6 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 482 | 434 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 36 | 146 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 212 | 287 | 380 | 667 | 168 | 274 | 30 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -7 | -1 | -8 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB MLE | LAA | 100% | 426 | 384 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 132 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 276 | 359 | 636 | 156 | 266 | 31 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -11 | -0 | -9 | +5 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 614 | 547 | 129 | 27 | 3 | 26 | 49 | 172 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 236 | 314 | 438 | 752 | 203 | 291 | 28 | 8 | 331 | 111 | +8 | +2 | -5 | +7 | +13 | 2.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 614 | 547 | 129 | 27 | 3 | 26 | 49 | 174 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 234 | 312 | 434 | 745 | 200 | 290 | 28 | 8 | 329 | 109 | +7 | +2 | -6 | +7 | +13 | 2.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 614 | 548 | 127 | 27 | 3 | 25 | 48 | 175 | 13 | 19 | 5 | 232 | 309 | 428 | 737 | 196 | 289 | 29 | 8 | 325 | 107 | +5 | +2 | -7 | +7 | +13 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 614 | 548 | 125 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 48 | 177 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 228 | 305 | 420 | 725 | 191 | 287 | 29 | 8 | 321 | 104 | +3 | +1 | -7 | +7 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 594 | 531 | 119 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 46 | 174 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 224 | 300 | 410 | 710 | 186 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +1 | -8 | +6 | +13 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 573 | 514 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 43 | 170 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 294 | 396 | 690 | 178 | 278 | 30 | 8 | 306 | 94 | -4 | +0 | -8 | +6 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 482 | 434 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 146 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 211 | 286 | 379 | 665 | 168 | 272 | 30 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -7 | -1 | -8 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB CTX | LAA | 100% | 426 | 384 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 132 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 359 | 634 | 157 | 263 | 31 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -11 | -0 | -9 | +5 | +9 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 6720 | 6005 | 1385 | 299 | 24 | 262 | 512 | 1901 | 152 | 181 | 60 | 231 | 307 | 419 | 727 | 189 | 290 | 28 | 8 | 322 | 105 | +35 | +12 | -58 | +73 | +146 | 21.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 133 | 29 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 184 | 15 | 18 | 6 | 229 | 307 | 415 | 722 | 186 | 288 | 28 | 8 | 322 | 105 | +3 | +1 | -6 | +7 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7609 | 6804 | 1592 | 353 | 29 | 295 | 570 | 2142 | 178 | 215 | 70 | 234 | 310 | 424 | 734 | 190 | 295 | 28 | 7 | 324 | 105 | +43 | +15 | -63 | +80 | +159 | 23.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 135 | 30 | 2 | 25 | 49 | 183 | 15 | 18 | 6 | 232 | 309 | 420 | 728 | 188 | 293 | 28 | 8 | 324 | 105 | +4 | +1 | -6 | +7 | +14 | 2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 58 PAwOBA .417 → .336 (−81)K% 22.4% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.41% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.07% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷1.046 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 18.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 8.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .417 → .336; ISO .306 → .227; BABIP .312 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 34 PAwOBA .560 → .521 (−39)K% 23.5% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 10.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.11% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 40.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 13.56% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .560 → .521; ISO .370 → .345; BABIP .562 → .538. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 16 PAwOBA .517 → .409 (−107)K% 25.0% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 12.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 12.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.058 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 10.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 10.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 16.28% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .517 → .409; ISO .538 → .387; BABIP .286 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 136 PAwOBA .379 → .334 (−45)K% 21.3% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.32% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.041 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 4.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.68% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 3.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.96% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 26.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 9.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.006 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.131 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 3.19% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .379 → .334; ISO .172 → .143; BABIP .389 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 31 PAwOBA .336 → .285 (−51)K% 12.9% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 16.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 9.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.45% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 5.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 12.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.027 | 3.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.814 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 4.98% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 110, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 109, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .336 → .285; ISO .200 → .187; BABIP .200 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).