James Outman

CF Detroit Tigers

Age 30 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 2.884S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLBArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	AAAOklahoma City…	319	.279/.392/.543	17	11	107	—	.231/.316/.431
2024	27	MLBLAD	156	.147/.256/.265	4	2	55	-0.2
2025	28	AAAMIN	390	.281/.374/.576	23	17	86	—	.219/.288/.405
2025	28	MLBMIN	148	.134/.216/.321	6	1	50	-0.5
2026	29	AAADET	81	.191/.312/.382	3	1	45	—	.141/.238/.268
2026	29	MLBDET	170	.172/.235/.318	5	6	58	-0.4
2027PROJ	30	MLBDET	238	.193/.270/.360	8	7	80	0.1
2028PROJ65% MLB	31	MLBDET	185	.189/.265/.350	6	4	76	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.884First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.3M2028Arb-2$0.3M2029Ext$0.7M2030Ext$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed63

Barrel%58

Bat Spd52

Avg EV27

xwOBA10

CompsSam Hilliard (age 29) · Brian O'Grady (age 29) · George Lombard (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6280vR 86

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .270 / .360

PA238

HR8

SB7

K%35

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO168

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 30 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT30

xAVG

100.173

POWER55

Barrel%

589.4

Avg EV

2787.3

Bat Spd

5271.5

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

6328.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 307 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

265

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

172

252

▶▶R

ISO

103

162

▶▶R

BABIP

150

200

▶▶R

42.9%

37.7%

▶R

BB%

7.1%

9.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.884 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2028	Arb-2	$0.3M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.3M		$0.1M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	237	208	55	8	3	11	24	56	4	12	2	264	352	490	842	226	310	24	10	369	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	509	442	100	15	4	19	56	128	8	20	10	226	324	407	731	181	272	25	11	327	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	187	166	48	9	1	9	18	51	3	2	2	289	369	518	887	229	368	27	10	390	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	304	248	62	12	8	9	45	88	10	21	2	250	386	472	858	222	349	29	15	380	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	83	67	19	7	1	3	15	23	1	2	1	284	422	552	974	269	390	28	18	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	16	13	6	2	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	462	562	846	1.409	385	1.000	44	12	593	294	+4	+0	-0	-6	+0	-0.2
2022	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	252	212	62	14	6	15	32	63	4	6	1	292	394	627	1.021	335	343	25	13	431	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	307	261	77	17	1	16	38	89	6	7	3	295	397	552	948	257	386	29	12	412	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	567	483	120	16	3	23	68	181	12	16	3	248	355	437	792	188	343	32	12	353	128	+19	+2	+5	+2	+12	4.1
2024	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	136	20	4	0	4	16	55	4	2	1	147	256	265	521	118	208	35	10	246	55	-8	+0	+1	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	27	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	319	265	74	15	2	17	44	81	6	11	1	279	392	543	936	264	335	25	14	405	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	148	134	18	5	1	6	12	63	2	1	0	134	216	321	537	187	185	43	8	242	50	-9	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.5
2025	28	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	390	335	94	22	4	23	45	120	5	17	3	281	374	576	950	296	360	31	12	406	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	170	157	27	4	2	5	10	71	3	6	3	172	235	318	554	146	272	42	6	250	58	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
2026	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	81	68	13	4	0	3	8	30	4	1	1	191	312	382	695	191	278	37	10	313	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1057	923	191	31	6	39	108	377	22	25	7	207	305	380	685	173	297	36	10	309	95	-6	+2	+5	+0	+23	2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	237	218	38	5	2	7	14	81	4	12	2	174	237	312	549	138	231	34	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	509	461	80	12	3	14	37	168	8	20	10	174	247	304	551	130	232	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	187	172	41	7	1	7	12	64	3	2	2	238	299	413	712	174	337	34	6	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	304	263	48	9	5	7	30	117	10	21	2	183	290	335	625	152	288	38	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	16	13	6	2	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	462	562	846	1.409	385	1.000	44	12	603	294	+4	+0	-0	-6	+0	-0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	252	224	53	12	6	11	21	75	4	6	1	237	313	491	804	254	297	30	8	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	307	273	63	13	1	12	26	112	6	7	3	231	311	418	729	187	332	36	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	567	484	122	17	4	22	67	181	12	16	3	252	357	440	797	188	343	32	12	357	128	+19	+2	+5	+2	+12	4.1
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	136	20	4	0	4	16	55	4	2	1	147	256	265	521	118	208	35	10	250	55	-8	+0	+1	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	319	281	65	13	2	13	29	98	6	11	1	231	316	431	747	199	297	31	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	148	134	18	5	1	6	12	63	2	1	0	134	216	321	537	187	185	43	8	241	50	-9	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.5
2025	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	390	351	77	18	4	13	29	145	5	17	3	219	288	405	693	185	312	37	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	170	157	27	4	2	5	10	71	3	6	3	172	235	318	554	146	272	42	6	254	58	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
2026	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	81	71	10	3	0	2	5	36	4	1	1	141	237	268	505	127	236	44	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	237	218	38	5	2	7	14	81	4	12	2	174	237	312	549	138	237	34	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Ogden Raptors	—	237	208	55	8	3	11	24	56	4	12	2	264	352	490	842	226	310	24	10	369	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	509	461	80	12	3	14	37	168	8	20	10	174	247	304	551	130	234	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	—	509	442	100	15	4	19	56	128	8	20	10	226	324	407	731	181	272	25	11	327	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	574	509	104	19	7	17	50	212	14	25	5	204	293	369	663	165	310	37	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	574	481	129	28	10	21	78	162	14	25	5	268	386	499	885	231	361	28	14	390	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	575	509	123	27	7	24	50	194	11	13	4	242	323	464	786	222	334	34	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	575	486	145	33	7	32	72	159	11	13	4	298	400	593	993	294	377	28	13	425	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	567	484	122	17	4	22	67	181	12	16	3	252	357	440	797	188	351	32	12	357	128	+19	+2	+5	+2	+12	4.1
2023	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	567	483	120	16	3	23	68	181	12	16	3	248	355	437	792	188	343	32	12	353	128	+19	+2	+5	+2	+12	4.1
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	417	85	17	2	17	45	153	10	13	2	204	297	376	673	173	272	32	9	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	475	401	94	19	2	21	60	136	10	13	2	234	347	449	796	214	296	29	13	353	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	538	485	94	23	5	18	41	208	7	18	3	194	266	373	640	179	288	39	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	538	469	112	27	5	29	57	183	7	18	3	239	330	503	833	264	317	34	11	361	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	251	228	37	7	2	7	15	107	7	7	4	162	236	303	539	140	261	43	6	248	54	-14	-0	+0	+1	+5	-0.8
2026	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	251	225	40	8	2	8	18	101	7	7	4	178	260	338	598	160	274	40	7	270	54	-14	-0	+0	+1	+5	-0.8
2018	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	237	217	38	5	2	7	14	81	4	12	2	175	237	313	551	138	231	34	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	509	459	80	12	3	14	37	168	8	20	10	174	247	305	552	131	232	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	574	505	104	19	7	17	50	212	14	25	5	206	293	372	665	166	307	37	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	575	509	123	27	7	24	50	194	11	13	4	242	323	464	786	222	335	34	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	567	483	122	17	4	22	67	181	12	16	3	253	357	441	798	188	343	32	12	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	417	85	17	2	17	45	153	10	13	2	204	297	376	673	173	268	32	9	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	538	485	94	23	5	18	41	208	7	18	3	194	266	373	640	179	277	39	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	251	227	37	7	2	7	15	107	7	7	4	163	236	304	540	141	260	43	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	475	417	85	17	2	17	45	153	10	13	2	204	297	376	673	173	268	32	9	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	538	485	94	23	5	18	41	208	7	18	3	194	266	373	640	179	277	39	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	251	227	37	7	2	7	15	107	7	7	4	163	236	304	540	141	260	43	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	DET	100%	406	365	71	14	3	14	31	143	7	12	3	197	274	370	644	173	273	35	8	287	80	-10	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	DET	100%	238	214	41	8	2	8	18	84	4	7	1	193	270	360	630	167	268	35	8	281	80	-6	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	DET	65%	285	256	50	10	2	10	22	102	5	5	1	193	269	360	629	168	269	36	8	281	76	-8	+1	-3	+1	+6	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	DET	65%	185	166	31	6	1	6	14	66	3	4	1	189	265	350	616	162	264	36	8	275	76	-5	+0	-2	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1242	1089	222	37	7	45	122	443	25	29	8	204	299	375	673	171	292	36	10	304	85	-12	+3	+3	+1	+27	2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	117	19	4	24	64	232	13	15	4	205	300	379	679	174	293	36	10	304	85	-6	+1	+2	+1	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4249	3781	774	145	36	144	359	1490	82	136	35	205	288	376	664	172	290	35	8	294	85	-20	+4	+2	+2	+34	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	119	22	6	22	55	228	13	21	5	206	289	379	668	173	292	35	8	294	85	-8	+2	+1	+1	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 81 PAwOBA .309 → .234 (−75)K% 37.0% → 44.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	44.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.69%
HBP% /PA	4.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	4.56%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.982	14.42%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.982	8.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	5.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .309 → .234; ISO .191 → .131; BABIP .278 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 390 PAwOBA .399 → .296 (−102)K% 30.8% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.77%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	37.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.03%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.38%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.20%
Singles /BIP	20.93%	÷0.944	×0.930	×0.964	×0.992	19.72%
Doubles /BIP	10.23%	÷0.938	×0.830	×0.964	×0.992	8.66%
Triples /BIP	1.86%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.964	×0.992	1.73%
Home runs /BIP	10.70%	÷1.253	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .399 → .296; ISO .296 → .188; BABIP .360 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 319 PAwOBA .397 → .327 (−70)K% 25.4% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.39%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	30.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.48%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.13%
HBP% /PA	1.88%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.77%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷0.977	×0.930	×0.966	×1.003	20.05%
Doubles /BIP	8.15%	÷0.930	×0.830	×0.966	×1.003	7.05%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷1.126	×0.970	×0.966	×1.003	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	9.24%	÷0.896	×0.700	—	×1.003	7.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .397 → .327; ISO .264 → .215; BABIP .335 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 307 PAwOBA .403 → .318 (−85)K% 29.0% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.99%	÷0.971	×1.220	—	—	36.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.05%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×0.998	8.63%
HBP% /PA	1.95%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	1.70%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.953	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	22.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.88%	÷1.006	×0.840	×0.950	×0.998	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	9.30%	÷0.993	×0.800	—	×0.998	7.48%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .403 → .318; ISO .257 → .195; BABIP .386 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 252 PAwOBA .424 → .345 (−79)K% 25.0% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	29.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.70%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.44%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.54%
Singles /BIP	18.12%	÷1.027	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	16.10%
Doubles /BIP	9.40%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	7.99%
Triples /BIP	4.03%	÷0.955	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	4.02%
Home runs /BIP	10.07%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.033	7.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .424 → .345; ISO .335 → .272; BABIP .343 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 304 PAwOBA .372 → .278 (−94)K% 28.9% → 38.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.95%	÷1.013	×1.350	—	—	38.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.80%	÷1.042	×0.710	—	×0.988	9.97%
HBP% /PA	3.29%	—	×0.810	—	×0.988	2.63%
Singles /BIP	20.62%	÷0.978	×0.910	×0.952	×0.988	18.06%
Doubles /BIP	7.50%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.952	×0.988	6.15%
Triples /BIP	5.00%	÷1.150	×0.820	×0.952	×0.988	3.35%
Home runs /BIP	5.62%	÷0.930	×0.830	—	×0.988	4.96%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .372 → .278; ISO .222 → .166; BABIP .349 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 187 PAwOBA .379 → .309 (−71)K% 27.3% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷0.966	×1.220	—	—	34.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.63%	÷1.051	×0.690	—	×1.012	6.40%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.38%
Singles /BIP	25.22%	÷1.030	×0.940	×1.018	×1.012	23.70%
Doubles /BIP	7.83%	÷1.026	×0.870	×1.018	×1.012	6.84%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.018	×1.012	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	7.83%	÷0.935	×0.780	—	×1.012	6.61%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .379 → .309; ISO .229 → .186; BABIP .368 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 509 PAwOBA .319 → .244 (−75)K% 25.1% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.15%	÷1.035	×1.360	—	—	33.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.031	×0.690	—	—	7.23%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.23%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.950	—	17.22%
Doubles /BIP	4.78%	÷0.934	×0.830	×0.950	—	4.03%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷1.061	×0.910	×0.950	—	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	6.05%	÷1.018	×0.800	—	—	4.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 112, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .319 → .244; ISO .181 → .137; BABIP .272 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,464	53	35	202	291	374	+5	+5	2.6	2.6
/162	664	24	16	+2.4	+2.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
James Outman (OGILVIE)	30	30	55	60	50	195/271/367	172	273	8	7	35%	8%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	37→47	53→55	54→55	46	203/278/374	171	267	22	14	32%	9%	83	+0.1	219/287/392	173	305	20	17	33%	9%	91	+0.6	212/277/398	186	292	19	20	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	43→38	57→60	52→50	40	227/284/423	196	297	25	16	32%	6%	97	+1.1	214/281/373	159	294	17	14	31%	8%	84	+0.1	191/264/352	161	259	16	13	32%	8%	72	-0.5
✕George Lombard 2006 · MLB	30	44→43	50	56→55	42	221/287/380	159	307	17	19	32%	7%	87	+0.4	221/289/364	143	306	16	25	31%	8%	84	+0.2	213/287/342	129	286	16	37	30%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→33	48→55	53→50	39	224/268/373	149	293	16	14	29%	5%	78	-0.3	201/237/345	144	284	17	8	35%	4%	60	-1.6	173/202/300	127	246	16	7	37%	3%	35	-1.9
✕Weston Wilson 2024 · MLB	29	39→42	50→55	55	44	207/276/355	148	279	19	24	32%	8%	78	-0.3	213/286/366	153	280	19	21	30%	9%	84	+0.1	207/282/354	147	267	19	21	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→43	51→55	50	48	210/281/366	155	262	19	7	28%	9%	82	+0.0	212/269/358	146	273	19	5	29%	7%	76	-0.4	200/255/340	139	255	19	2	29%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Brooks Conrad 2010 · MLB	30	38→43	49→55	52→50	42	202/259/351	149	260	17	10	30%	6%	70	-0.8	226/291/405	179	295	22	11	30%	8%	95	+0.9	221/291/435	214	282	28	7	32%	9%	103	+0.5
✕Mark Contreras 2023 · MLB	28	38→39	49→50	55	37	197/258/342	145	283	17	20	36%	6%	68	-1.0	202/267/310	108	294	11	26	33%	7%	64	-1.3	193/262/280	87	283	8	32	32%	7%	52	-1.4
✕Chris Herrmann 2018 · MLB	30	40→50	51→50	55→50	50	211/291/368	157	259	19	11	26%	10%	86	+0.3	225/306/375	150	304	17	6	29%	10%	93	+0.8	204/287/339	135	292	14	0	33%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Justin Leone 2008 · AAA	31	41→39	48→50	53→55	49	210/287/354	144	268	16	15	28%	9%	82	-0.0	192/268/328	136	258	15	15	30%	9%	69	-0.9	163/242/288	125	216	15	14	31%	9%	50	-1.3
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	33	49→50	45→40	46	182/253/322	139	222	19	4	28%	8%	62	-1.4	193/264/316	123	253	15	4	29%	8%	65	-1.2	170/246/277	106	224	13	0	30%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Bobby Dalbec 2024 · MLB	29	40→42	56→60	55→50	41	213/288/398	185	306	26	12	38%	8%	93	+0.8	200/268/355	155	319	19	12	41%	8%	75	-0.5	185/251/333	148	298	18	10	42%	7%	61	-1.2
✕Corey Brown 2015 · MLB	29	39→49	52→55	50	38	209/259/376	167	289	21	13	35%	6%	76	-0.4	200/250/361	161	288	20	15	36%	6%	70	-0.9	196/252/364	168	277	21	17	37%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→43	50	50	38	210/253/358	149	282	18	11	32%	6%	70	-0.9	201/250/325	124	284	14	11	33%	6%	61	-1.5	186/236/297	111	264	13	8	34%	5%	46	-1.6
✕Jose Rojas 2024 · MLB	31	41→48	52→60	49→50	44	216/268/383	167	258	20	9	25%	6%	81	-0.1	209/274/398	189	248	24	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	195/265/395	200	224	25	11	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Daniel Johnson 2024 · MLB	29	41→51	48→55	52→55	42	212/269/354	143	269	17	18	28%	6%	74	-0.5	216/264/353	137	270	16	17	26%	5%	72	-0.7	214/258/353	140	266	17	17	26%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Carlos Peguero 2016 · MLB	29	41→46	56→60	48→50	37	211/272/397	186	320	25	11	41%	7%	86	+0.3	226/285/379	153	329	19	11	35%	7%	86	+0.3	219/267/332	113	317	15	10	34%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Skye Bolt 2023 · MLB	29	48→40	50	54→50	44	242/302/395	153	302	18	14	26%	7%	96	+1.0	228/296/341	113	317	11	10	29%	8%	82	-0.0	217/293/302	86	317	6	5	31%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Cody Ransom 2008 · MLB	32	37→39	51→55	49→50	42	199/261/355	156	255	20	13	30%	7%	72	-0.7	209/271/376	167	263	20	10	28%	7%	80	-0.1	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4

James Outman

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps