Luke Adams — OGILVIE

Luke Adams1B Nashville Sounds

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 233 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION295 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP246

ISO147

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED38

scouting grade only

DEFENSE43

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$20M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	32	12	3	0	1	7	8	2	9	1	375	512	562	1.075	188	478	20	17	476	208	+5	+1	—	—	+1	0.8
2023	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	339	79	18	3	11	76	99	21	30	10	233	404	401	805	168	292	22	17	368	135	+18	+2	—	—	+10	3.1
2024	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	295	67	15	1	11	78	89	40	28	10	227	448	397	845	169	280	21	19	392	151	+26	+2	—	—	+9	3.7
2025	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	278	211	49	13	0	11	43	60	21	10	3	232	408	450	858	218	270	22	15	387	148	+16	+1	—	—	+6	2.3
2025	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	37	23	5	2	0	0	9	4	3	0	0	217	472	304	777	87	250	11	24	372	138	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	70	51	17	3	0	3	11	12	4	4	1	333	471	569	1.039	235	368	17	16	438	183	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	378	29	10	335	113	+1	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	368	65	13	3	9	47	142	21	30	10	177	305	302	607	125	242	32	11	272	70	-16	+2	—	—	+10	-0.4
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	318	59	13	1	9	55	121	40	28	10	186	373	318	690	132	239	29	13	312	97	-1	+2	—	—	+9	1.0
2025	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	278	227	40	10	0	7	29	79	21	10	3	176	325	313	638	137	230	28	10	293	84	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
2025	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	37	26	5	2	0	0	7	6	3	0	0	192	417	269	686	77	217	16	19	318	101	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	409	29	10	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	32	12	3	0	1	7	8	2	9	1	375	512	562	1.075	188	478	20	17	476	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	368	65	13	3	9	47	142	21	30	10	177	305	302	607	125	253	32	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	339	79	18	3	11	76	99	21	30	10	233	404	401	805	168	292	22	17	368	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	318	59	13	1	9	55	121	40	28	10	186	373	318	690	132	259	29	13	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	295	67	15	1	11	78	89	40	28	10	227	448	397	845	169	280	21	19	392	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	385	309	56	15	0	9	44	103	28	14	4	181	336	317	653	136	234	27	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	385	285	71	18	0	14	63	76	28	14	4	249	425	460	885	211	286	20	16	395	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	378	29	10	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	369	65	13	3	9	47	142	21	30	10	176	305	301	606	125	242	32	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	320	59	13	1	9	55	121	40	28	10	184	373	316	689	131	239	29	13	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	385	310	56	15	0	9	44	103	28	14	4	181	336	316	652	135	228	27	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	369	65	13	3	9	47	142	21	30	10	176	305	301	606	125	242	32	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	320	59	13	1	9	55	121	40	28	10	184	373	316	689	131	239	29	13	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	385	310	56	15	0	9	44	103	28	14	4	181	336	316	652	135	228	27	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	MIL	—	295	242	53	9	2	12	29	51	21	8	2	219	353	421	774	202	225	17	10	341	117	+6	+1	+0	-5	+6	0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK RAW	MIL	—	16	13	5	1	0	3	2	3	1	1	0	385	500	1.154	1.654	769	286	19	12	660	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AAA RAW	MIL	—	279	212	55	10	2	13	40	39	20	7	2	259	417	509	926	250	258	14	14	405	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	AAA MLE	MIL	10%	9	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	143	333	143	476		247	22	11	335	113	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	22	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						246	0	0	288	113	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	MLB A+C	MIL	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	288	117	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	AAA MLE	MIL	—	304	249	54	9	2	12	30	53	22	8	2	217	352	414	766	197	225	17	10	341	117	+6	+1	-0	-5	+7	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	52%	417	344	76	15	2	14	45	88	25	11	3	221	353	398	751	177	253	21	11	339	115	+8	+1	-2	-7	+9	0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	67%	466	387	87	17	2	16	50	97	26	12	4	225	352	403	755	178	257	21	11	342	117	+10	+1	-2	-8	+10	1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	73%	488	407	92	18	2	17	52	101	26	13	4	226	351	405	756	179	259	21	11	343	118	+11	+1	-2	-9	+11	1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	77%	500	416	95	19	2	17	54	104	26	13	4	228	353	406	759	178	260	21	11	344	119	+11	+1	-2	-9	+11	1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	76%	501	416	95	19	2	17	54	104	26	13	4	228	353	406	759	178	260	21	11	344	119	+11	+1	-2	-9	+11	1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	76%	497	414	93	18	2	17	54	104	26	12	4	225	350	401	751	176	259	21	11	343	118	+11	+1	-3	-9	+11	1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIL	74%	488	406	92	18	2	17	54	103	25	11	3	227	353	406	759	180	258	21	11	341	117	+10	+1	-3	-9	+11	1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIL	73%	478	397	88	17	2	16	53	102	25	10	3	222	349	395	745	174	256	21	11	338	115	+8	+1	-4	-9	+10	0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIL	73%	464	386	84	16	2	15	51	101	24	8	3	218	345	386	731	168	254	22	11	334	112	+7	+0	-5	-8	+10	0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	446	371	80	15	2	14	49	99	23	7	2	216	343	380	723	164	250	22	11	328	108	+4	+1	-5	-8	+10	0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	416	347	72	13	1	13	45	94	21	5	1	207	334	363	697	156	245	23	11	321	103	+2	+1	-6	-7	+9	-0.2
2038	34	MLB MLE	MIL	68%	371	309	62	11	1	11	40	86	19	3	1	201	329	350	678	149	239	23	11	312	97	-1	+0	-6	-7	+8	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	52%	219	180	41	8	1	8	24	46	13	6	2	228	359	417	776	189	252	21	11	297	115	+4	+0	-1	-4	+5	0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	67%	311	258	58	11	1	11	33	65	17	8	2	225	351	403	754	178	256	21	11	303	117	+6	+1	-1	-6	+7	0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	73%	358	298	68	13	2	13	38	74	19	9	3	228	352	416	768	188	258	21	11	306	118	+8	+1	-1	-6	+8	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	77%	383	319	73	14	2	14	41	79	20	10	3	229	353	417	770	188	259	21	11	308	119	+9	+1	-1	-7	+8	1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	76%	382	317	73	14	2	14	42	80	20	10	3	230	356	420	776	189	258	21	11	308	119	+9	+1	-1	-7	+8	1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	76%	379	315	72	14	2	14	41	79	20	9	3	229	354	419	773	190	258	21	11	307	118	+8	+1	-2	-7	+8	0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIL	74%	363	301	67	13	1	13	40	77	19	8	3	223	350	402	752	179	257	21	11	305	117	+7	+0	-2	-6	+8	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIL	73%	350	290	64	12	1	12	39	75	18	7	2	221	349	393	742	172	255	21	11	302	115	+6	+1	-3	-6	+8	0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIL	73%	337	279	62	12	1	12	37	73	18	6	2	222	350	401	752	179	252	22	11	298	112	+5	+0	-3	-6	+7	0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	323	268	58	11	1	11	35	71	17	5	1	216	344	388	732	172	249	22	11	292	108	+3	+1	-4	-6	+7	0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	300	249	53	10	1	10	33	68	15	4	1	213	340	382	722	169	244	23	11	285	103	+1	+0	-4	-5	+6	-0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	MIL	68%	251	209	42	7	1	8	27	58	13	2	1	201	329	359	688	158	238	23	11	277	97	-1	+0	-4	-4	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3957	3284	731	139	16	140	430	845	209	84	26	223	349	403	752	180	255	21	11	300	108	+66	+6	-29	-71	+86	5.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	539	121	23	3	23	71	139	34	14	4	224	351	406	757	182	257	21	11	300	108	+11	+1	-5	-12	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6825	5637	1207	239	26	212	752	1563	384	199	61	214	346	379	725	164	255	23	11	328	108	+91	+9	-41	-99	+120	8.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	537	115	23	2	20	72	149	37	19	6	214	347	376	723	162	255	23	11	328	108	+11	+1	-5	-12	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rickie Weeks Jr.last yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,098 PA	7.7	5,098	161	132	246	344	420	+12	-40	23.3	22.4
/162	664	21	17	+1.5	-5.2	3.0	pk7: 22
#2Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#3Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#4Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.0	3,987	132	86	223	346	396	+14	-23	19.7	16.9
/162	664	22	14	+2.3	-3.9	3.3	pk7: 14
#5Travis Shawlast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,671 PA	4.0	2,671	114	20	239	322	441	+4	+6	13.4	13.4
/162	664	28	5	+1.1	+1.6	3.3	pk7: 13
#6Mark Bellhornlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,181 PA	3.3	2,181	63	21	233	345	404	+2	+5	10.3	10.3
/162	664	19	6	+0.6	+1.5	3.1	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Adams (OGILVIE)	22	30→44	40→52	30→38	57	212/350/377	166	247	10	9	21%	11%	113	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	52	209/313/362	153	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+0.9	209/299/374	165	271	20	11	29%	10%	91	+0.7	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	52→55	45	50	232/308/392	160	264	21	7	21%	8%	98	+1.2	235/298/411	176	286	24	5	26%	7%	99	+1.3	229/284/404	175	286	26	2	29%	6%	91	+0.4
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	50→53	52→60	46→50	48	255/321/423	168	316	20	10	26%	8%	109	+2.0	262/331/445	183	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	258/344/398	139	293	17	6	17%	11%	111	+2.3
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	38→48	55	45→50	44	207/289/391	184	267	23	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	240/307/413	173	302	20	9	27%	7%	103	+1.5	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	46→60	49→55	42	243/302/374	131	307	13	12	25%	5%	92	+0.7	246/317/424	178	299	21	19	25%	6%	109	+2.0	246/317/445	199	306	24	25	27%	7%	110	+2.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/404	170	299	19	12	28%	8%	100	+1.3	229/300/399	170	291	20	10	28%	7%	97	+1.1	234/307/425	191	291	23	12	27%	7%	102	+1.1
●Elijah Dukes 2008 · MLB	24	47→52	51→55	47→50	54	239/322/405	166	270	19	12	19%	10%	106	+1.8	243/342/412	169	291	17	14	21%	12%	115	+2.4	246/349/414	168	297	16	14	21%	12%	114	+1.8
✕Victor Castillo 2007 · A	22	47	47→50	42→40	57	235/333/368	134	274	14	5	19%	11%	103	+1.5	229/283/304	75	292	7	5	23%	6%	68	-1.0	240/288/298	58	301	6	3	21%	6%	66	-0.4
●Tyler Flowers 2008 · A	22	48→55	46→50	41→40	46	237/294/376	139	294	13	4	24%	7%	88	+0.5	238/320/392	154	323	15	5	29%	10%	103	+1.5	260/361/411	151	335	17	0	25%	10%	120	+1.5
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49→48	50→65	49→30	46	249/297/405	156	285	18	9	20%	6%	97	+1.1	206/264/375	169	269	21	3	31%	5%	78	-0.3	228/303/462	235	292	33	0	33%	8%	111	+1.7
✕Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→52	46→60	48→50	49	230/304/365	135	294	13	13	26%	9%	90	+0.6	213/284/325	112	292	9	13	28%	8%	73	-0.6	243/310/437	193	313	22	11	28%	8%	105	+1.0
●Gary Sánchez 2016 · AAA	23	46→50	48→65	45	42	234/280/371	137	284	16	6	24%	6%	82	+0.0	247/310/450	203	283	27	6	23%	7%	113	+2.3	240/315/462	222	266	31	4	23%	8%	115	+1.9
●Chris Iannetta 2006 · AA	23	45→55	50→60	44→45	49	227/302/384	157	288	17	4	26%	9%	94	+0.9	253/343/416	163	308	17	3	22%	11%	116	+2.5	260/364/439	179	311	19	0	21%	12%	124	+2.0
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→52	49→55	51→50	45	253/303/401	148	297	17	9	21%	6%	98	+1.2	227/306/381	154	270	16	12	22%	9%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→48	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/291/376	153	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.4	251/325/430	179	297	23	2	23%	9%	110	+0.8
✕Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→56	53→40	48→50	50	250/323/425	175	285	20	12	20%	8%	112	+2.2	247/339/344	97	305	9	12	20%	11%	99	+1.2	256/344/352	96	304	9	11	17%	10%	100	+1.3
●Ryan Jeffers 2019 · A	22	52→56	43→60	44→40	47	250/320/360	111	317	10	3	24%	8%	95	+1.0	221/288/351	130	297	16	2	29%	7%	81	-0.1	250/339/433	183	282	21	2	19%	10%	116	+1.8
●Jhonny Peralta 2004 · MLB	22	47→57	44→55	40	47	231/299/346	115	291	11	6	24%	8%	84	+0.1	258/329/417	159	320	17	3	23%	9%	111	+2.1	269/341/437	168	330	19	1	23%	9%	117	+2.6
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	51→55	49→50	44	231/295/391	160	292	19	12	28%	7%	93	+0.8	239/298/393	154	317	17	11	29%	7%	94	+0.9	239/312/395	156	325	18	14	30%	8%	98	+1.0
●Kurt Suzuki 2006 · A	22	48→58	45→60	46→45	53	236/311/367	131	265	12	5	16%	8%	93	+0.8	249/320/359	110	286	10	4	16%	8%	95	+0.9	269/335/479	210	264	29	0	12%	6%	125	+1.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps