Luke Adams

1B Nashville Sounds

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 233 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP40OGV rank#224ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+MIL	418	.227/.448/.397	11	28	106	—	.196/.385/.339
2025	21	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	385	.249/.425/.460	14	14	111	—	.191/.352/.338
2026	22	AAA/ROKMIL	295	.267/.421/.547	16	8	126	—	.232/.366/.438
2027PROJ10% MLB	23	MLBMIL	21	.229/.363/.415	1	1	124	0.1
2028PROJ47% MLB	24	MLBMIL	138	.232/.363/.421	5	3	125	0.5
2029PROJ64% MLB	25	MLBMIL	218	.233/.362/.423	8	5	125	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$5M2032Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV94

Chase%92

K%88

BB%82

Speed81

Whiff%79

Career WAR2.5 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 10% · didn't stick 40%

CompsLogan O'Hoppe (age 23) · Andy Pages (age 23) · Isaac Paredes (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†124

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .363 / .415

PA21

HR1

K%19

BB%10

BABIP262

ISO222

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	32	12	3	0	1	7	8	2	9	1	375	512	562	1.075	188	478	20	17	476	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	339	79	18	3	11	76	99	21	30	10	233	404	401	805	168	292	22	17	368	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	295	67	15	1	11	78	89	40	28	10	227	448	397	845	169	280	21	19	392	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	278	211	49	13	0	11	43	60	21	10	3	232	408	450	858	218	270	22	15	387	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	37	23	5	2	0	0	9	4	3	0	0	217	472	304	777	87	250	11	24	372	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	70	51	17	3	0	3	11	12	4	4	1	333	471	569	1.039	235	368	17	16	438	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	279	212	55	10	2	13	40	39	20	7	2	259	417	509	926	250	258	14	14	405	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	16	13	5	1	0	3	2	3	1	1	0	385	500	1.154	1.654	769	286	19	12	660	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	387	29	10	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	361	66	14	3	8	54	136	21	30	10	183	323	305	628	122	250	31	12	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	316	62	13	1	10	57	114	40	28	10	196	385	339	724	142	249	27	14	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	278	225	43	11	0	8	31	79	21	10	3	191	343	347	690	156	242	28	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	37	26	5	2	0	0	7	5	3	0	0	192	417	269	686	77	222	14	19	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	279	227	52	9	2	10	29	47	20	7	2	229	366	419	784	189	237	17	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	16	14	4	1	0	2	1	4	1	1	0	286	375	786	1.161	500	195	25	6	459	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	409	29	10	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	32	12	3	0	1	7	8	2	9	1	375	512	562	1.075	188	478	20	17	476	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	361	66	14	3	8	54	136	21	30	10	183	323	305	628	122	262	31	12	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	339	79	18	3	11	76	99	21	30	10	233	404	401	805	168	292	22	17	368	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	316	62	13	1	10	57	114	40	28	10	196	385	339	724	142	264	27	14	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	295	67	15	1	11	78	89	40	28	10	227	448	397	845	169	280	21	19	392	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	385	307	59	16	0	10	46	103	28	14	4	192	349	342	691	150	247	27	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	385	285	71	18	0	14	63	76	28	14	4	249	425	460	885	211	286	20	16	395	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	295	241	55	10	2	12	30	51	21	8	2	228	363	436	799	207	238	17	10	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	295	225	60	11	2	16	42	42	21	8	2	267	421	547	968	280	259	14	14	418	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	387	29	10	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	362	66	14	3	8	54	136	21	30	10	182	323	304	627	122	250	31	12	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	318	62	13	1	10	57	114	40	28	10	195	385	336	721	142	249	27	14	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	385	308	59	16	0	10	46	103	28	14	4	192	349	341	690	149	240	27	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	295	242	55	10	2	12	30	51	21	8	2	227	363	434	797	207	235	17	10	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	318	62	13	1	10	57	114	40	28	10	195	385	336	721	142	249	27	14	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	385	308	59	16	0	10	46	103	28	14	4	192	349	341	690	149	240	27	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	295	242	55	10	2	12	30	51	21	8	2	227	363	434	797	207	235	17	10	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	10%	405	332	77	16	2	14	44	86	26	10	3	231	365	413	778	183	266	21	11	352	124	+12	+1	-1	-7	+9	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	21	18	4	1	0	1	2	4	1	1	0	229	363	415	778	186	262	19	10	351	124	+1	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	47%	294	242	56	11	1	10	32	62	18	7	2	234	365	420	784	186	269	21	11	354	125	+9	+1	-1	-5	+6	1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	64%	340	280	66	13	2	12	37	71	20	8	2	235	364	422	785	186	270	21	11	354	125	+10	+1	-1	-6	+7	1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	365	303	72	14	2	13	39	77	20	8	2	235	361	421	782	185	271	21	11	352	124	+11	+1	-1	-7	+8	1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	74%	372	309	74	15	2	13	40	79	20	8	3	235	358	417	775	182	271	21	11	349	122	+10	+0	-1	-7	+8	1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	75%	371	310	73	14	2	13	39	80	19	7	2	233	354	411	766	178	271	22	11	345	120	+9	+1	-1	-7	+8	0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIL	74%	362	303	70	14	1	12	38	79	18	5	2	231	351	404	755	174	269	22	10	341	117	+7	+0	-2	-6	+8	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIL	73%	352	294	66	13	1	11	37	78	18	4	2	227	348	395	743	168	267	22	11	336	114	+6	+0	-3	-6	+8	0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	334	279	62	12	1	10	35	75	17	1	1	222	342	384	727	162	263	22	10	330	110	+4	-0	-3	-6	+7	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIL	79%	311	261	56	11	1	9	32	71	15	1	1	216	336	370	706	154	259	23	10	322	104	+2	-0	-4	-6	+7	-0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIL	83%	275	232	49	9	1	8	28	65	13	1	1	209	328	353	682	144	253	24	10	313	98	-1	-0	-5	-5	+6	-0.5
2038	34	MLB MLE	MIL	78%	227	192	39	7	1	6	22	55	11	0	0	200	318	333	652	133	246	24	10	301	90	-3	+0	-5	-4	+5	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	47%	138	114	27	5	1	5	15	29	8	3	1	232	363	421	784	189	264	21	11	353	125	+4	+0	-0	-2	+3	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	64%	218	179	42	8	1	8	24	46	13	5	2	233	362	423	785	190	265	21	11	353	125	+7	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	264	219	52	10	1	10	28	56	15	6	2	234	360	422	782	188	266	21	11	352	124	+8	+0	-0	-5	+6	0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	74%	275	229	53	10	1	10	29	58	15	6	2	233	357	418	775	185	267	21	11	349	122	+7	+0	-1	-5	+6	0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	75%	278	233	54	10	1	10	29	60	14	5	2	232	353	412	765	181	267	22	10	345	120	+6	+0	-1	-5	+6	0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIL	74%	267	224	51	10	1	9	28	58	13	4	1	229	350	405	755	176	265	22	10	341	117	+5	+0	-2	-5	+6	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIL	73%	257	215	49	9	1	9	27	57	13	3	1	225	346	396	742	171	262	22	11	336	114	+4	+0	-2	-5	+6	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	242	203	45	8	1	8	25	54	12	1	1	220	341	385	726	165	259	22	10	330	110	+3	-0	-2	-4	+5	0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIL	79%	244	205	45	8	1	8	25	56	12	1	1	215	335	371	705	156	254	23	10	322	104	+1	-0	-3	-4	+5	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIL	83%	228	192	41	7	1	7	23	54	11	1	0	207	327	354	681	147	249	24	10	312	98	-1	+0	-4	-4	+5	-0.4
2038	34	MLB CTX	MIL	78%	178	149	30	5	0	5	18	43	9	0	0	199	317	334	651	135	242	24	10	300	90	-2	+0	-4	-3	+4	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2589	2162	489	90	10	89	271	571	135	35	13	226	349	401	749	174	264	22	10	336	111	+43	+2	-20	-46	+56	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	543	123	23	3	22	68	143	34	9	3	227	349	401	751	175	265	22	10	336	111	+11	+0	-5	-12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5392	4437	975	196	22	165	593	1252	314	144	46	220	352	385	738	166	265	23	11	332	111	+69	+3	-27	-68	+83	6.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	535	118	24	3	20	71	151	38	17	6	221	352	389	741	168	266	23	11	332	111	+12	+1	-5	-12	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 279 PAwOBA .399 → .348 (−51)K% 14.0% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.98%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.34%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.39%
HBP% /PA	7.17%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	7.08%
Singles /BIP	17.34%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.983	×1.050	16.64%
Doubles /BIP	5.78%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.983	×1.050	4.95%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.983	×1.050	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	7.51%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .399 → .348; ISO .250 → .206; BABIP .258 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Brewers · 16 PAwOBA .640 → .459 (−181)K% 18.8% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	7.56%
HBP% /PA	6.25%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	4.39%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.975	8.00%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	7.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	22.81%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .640 → .459; ISO .769 → .567; BABIP .286 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 278 PAwOBA .379 → .306 (−73)K% 21.6% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.58%	÷0.932	×1.220	—	—	28.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.47%	÷1.008	×0.680	—	×1.050	10.96%
HBP% /PA	7.55%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	6.66%
Singles /BIP	16.56%	÷0.976	×0.920	×0.965	×1.050	15.82%
Doubles /BIP	8.61%	÷1.091	×0.910	×0.965	×1.050	7.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.083	×0.880	×0.965	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.28%	÷1.170	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.23%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 117, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .379 → .306; ISO .218 → .164; BABIP .270 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 37 PAwOBA .375 → .326 (−49)K% 10.8% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.81%	÷0.943	×1.270	—	—	14.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.32%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×1.027	18.38%
HBP% /PA	8.11%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	6.58%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.023	×0.920	—	×1.027	14.58%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.013	×0.810	—	×1.027	8.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.246	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .375 → .326; ISO .087 → .084; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 418 PAwOBA .387 → .325 (−62)K% 21.3% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.29%	÷0.993	×1.270	—	—	27.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.42%	÷0.995	×0.710	—	×1.042	13.70%
HBP% /PA	9.57%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	7.88%
Singles /BIP	19.42%	÷1.022	×0.920	×0.983	×1.042	17.92%
Doubles /BIP	7.28%	÷0.991	×0.810	×0.983	×1.042	6.10%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.150	×0.850	×0.983	×1.042	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	5.34%	÷0.979	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.55%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .387 → .325; ISO .169 → .148; BABIP .280 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 440 PAwOBA .363 → .283 (−80)K% 22.5% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.50%	÷0.990	×1.360	—	—	30.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.27%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×1.045	12.23%
HBP% /PA	4.77%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	3.89%
Singles /BIP	19.58%	÷1.049	×0.920	×0.971	×1.045	17.42%
Doubles /BIP	7.50%	÷1.090	×0.830	×0.971	×1.045	5.79%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.971	×1.045	1.28%
Home runs /BIP	4.58%	÷1.072	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.58%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .363 → .283; ISO .168 → .131; BABIP .292 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 41 PAwOBA .465 → .341 (−123)K% 19.5% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.51%	÷0.991	×1.440	—	—	28.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.07%	÷1.017	×0.620	—	×1.022	10.64%
HBP% /PA	4.88%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	3.59%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.979	×0.820	—	×1.022	28.56%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.023	×0.720	—	×1.022	8.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.144	×0.780	—	×1.022	2.90%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .465 → .341; ISO .188 → .130; BABIP .478 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,909 PA	5.9	3,909	110	91	248	327	419	-9	+4	15.9	16.4
/162	664	19	15	-1.6	+0.6	2.7	pk7: 17
#2Gary Roenicke'76-'88 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,204 PA	4.8	3,204	121	16	243*	350*	457*	-32	+8	15.5	15.3
/162	664	25	3	-6.6	+1.7	3.2	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.9	2,609	84	35	227	346	397	+9	-21	12.4	11.1
/162	664	21	9	+2.3	-5.3	3.2	pk7: 10
#3Rob Mackowiaklast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,618 PA	3.9	2,618	64	49	259	332	405	-11	-3	8.7	8.9
/162	664	16	12	-2.7	-0.8	2.2	pk7: 9
#4Mike Tauchmanlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,734 PA	2.6	1,734	41	28	249	350	387	-13	+2	6.5	6.5
/162	664	16	11	-4.9	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 7
#5F. P. Santangelo'95-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,073 PA	3.1	2,073	21	37	235*	348*	343*	-6	+7	5.2	5.2
/162	664	7	12	-2.1	+2.3	1.7	pk7: 5
#6Ted Savage'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,613 PA	2.4	1,613	34	49	233*	335*	390*	-13	+0	3.4	3.8
/162	664	14	20	-5.5	+0.1	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Adams (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	228/362/409	181	266	7	5	21%	11%	124	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Andy Pages 2024 · AA	23	42→52	54→60	47→50	47	218/307/400	182	287	21	9	30%	9%	100	+1.3	260/319/438	178	314	21	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Isaac Paredes 2023 · MLB	24	42→52	54→60	39→40	57	224/313/404	181	239	22	2	18%	11%	103	+1.5	241/339/441	200	256	26	2	18%	11%	121	+2.9	244/348/443	199	258	26	1	17%	11%	126	+2.9
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Gleyber Torres 2021 · MLB	24	50→55	58→60	46→50	51	264/333/465	201	297	27	6	21%	9%	124	+3.1	258/324/412	154	301	18	12	20%	9%	108	+1.9	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Alejandro Kirk 2022 · MLB	23	50→57	51→50	47→40	55	252/328/416	163	272	18	4	15%	9%	111	+2.1	262/340/389	127	281	14	2	12%	10%	109	+2.0	260/341/374	114	279	12	0	11%	10%	106	+1.3
✕Elijah Dukes 2009 · MLB	25	48→54	54→55	49→50	59	244/352/432	188	293	21	16	23%	13%	123	+3.0	246/333/406	160	289	15	12	20%	11%	110	+2.1	247/332/400	153	285	13	9	17%	10%	108	+1.6
●Zach Neto 2024 · MLB	23	49→48	51→60	50→55	44	248/325/414	166	303	19	12	24%	6%	110	+2.1	249/318/442	193	305	23	23	26%	7%	114	+2.3	246/319/446	200	307	24	25	27%	7%	116	+2.6
✕Andy LaRoche 2007 · AAA	23	53→57	54→55	45	50	271/333/448	178	304	22	8	19%	8%	120	+2.8	249/326/399	150	278	17	7	17%	10%	106	+1.8	240/324/380	140	265	15	5	15%	10%	101	+1.1
✕Luis Urías 2022 · MLB	25	48→58	52→55	47→45	53	247/331/420	173	289	20	7	22%	10%	113	+2.3	227/323/375	148	273	17	5	22%	10%	101	+1.4	212/315/343	131	259	15	4	23%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→47	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/292/377	154	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.5	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
●Jedd Gyorko 2013 · AAA	24	50→53	54→60	44→45	44	259/306/435	176	305	22	6	23%	6%	107	+1.8	244/298/409	165	290	21	4	23%	7%	98	+1.2	258/331/469	211	285	30	4	21%	10%	126	+2.4
✕Henry Davis 2024 · MLB	24	47	51→50	46→50	49	236/325/396	160	295	19	13	26%	9%	106	+1.8	209/290/352	143	263	18	10	27%	8%	83	+0.1	186/269/319	134	227	18	8	26%	8%	67	-0.6
●Sean Rodríguez 2009 · MLB	24	45→51	53→60	47→50	45	233/305/409	176	289	21	10	27%	7%	101	+1.4	242/317/431	189	301	22	13	26%	7%	111	+2.1	240/320/425	185	299	21	15	26%	8%	109	+1.5
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	51→54	50→55	51→50	49	256/318/416	160	295	17	13	20%	8%	107	+1.8	227/316/385	158	269	16	11	21%	10%	99	+1.3	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
●Adley Rutschman 2022 · AAA	24	47→54	49→50	41→40	52	239/316/389	149	280	17	5	21%	9%	100	+1.3	252/340/410	158	285	17	4	17%	11%	114	+2.4	253/342/408	155	280	18	2	16%	11%	115	+2.5
●Carlos Correa 2018 · MLB	23	55→61	57→60	50→55	54	285/356/488	204	324	25	10	20%	10%	137	+4.0	259/335/455	196	305	25	5	23%	10%	122	+3.0	263/344/444	182	303	22	0	20%	10%	124	+3.1
●Chris Iannetta 2007 · MLB	24	52→58	51→60	43→45	53	261/339/429	168	312	18	3	22%	10%	118	+2.6	249/348/429	180	299	19	2	22%	11%	121	+2.9	232/349/451	219	262	26	1	22%	12%	128	+2.0
●James Darnell 2010 · A	23	51→52	51→55	45→40	54	255/336/426	171	306	18	6	22%	10%	116	+2.5	248/318/410	162	289	18	4	20%	9%	105	+1.7	244/314/410	165	278	20	2	20%	8%	103	+1.0
✕Chris Snyder 2005 · MLB	24	47→43	56→55	48→30	53	247/323/440	193	286	24	7	23%	10%	115	+2.4	231/308/368	137	276	15	3	21%	9%	93	+0.8	241/331/421	180	278	21	0	21%	11%	114	+1.3

Luke Adams

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps