Luke Adams — OGILVIE

Luke Adams3B Nashville Sounds

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 233 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION190 act + 130 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†116

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .349 / .387

PA130

HR5

K%25

BB%11

BABIP246

ISO179

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED38

scouting grade only

DEFENSE43

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$15M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$16M	+$16M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+2.7	$16M	+$12M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$15M	+$9M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+2.5	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$29M		$91M	+$73M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	35	10	2	0	1	4	12	2	9	1	286	390	429	819	143	409	29	10	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	32	12	3	0	1	7	8	2	9	1	375	512	562	1.075	188	478	20	17	476	223	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	369	61	12	3	8	46	143	21	30	10	165	294	279	573	114	239	32	10	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	339	79	18	3	11	76	99	21	30	10	233	404	401	805	168	292	22	17	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	318	59	13	1	10	55	122	40	28	10	186	373	327	700	142	257	29	13	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	295	67	15	1	11	78	89	40	28	10	227	448	397	845	169	280	21	19	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	3 teams	—	385	309	53	13	0	9	44	117	28	14	4	172	328	301	629	129	235	30	11	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	3 teams	—	385	285	71	18	0	14	63	76	28	14	4	249	425	460	885	211	286	20	16	395	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AAA	MIL	—	190	158	37	6	1	12	16	40	14	8	2	234	356	513	869	278	231	21	8	371	142	+9	+1	+0	+1	+5	1.6
YTD	22	AAA	MIL	—	190	146	40	7	1	14	24	33	14	8	2	274	415	623	1.038	349	257	17	13	437	193	+20	+1	+0	+1	+5	2.7
ROS	22	AAA	MIL	10%	130	106	22	4	0	5	14	33	9	4	1	208	349	387	736	179	254	25	11	337	116	+2	+0	-1	+0	+4	0.6
ROS	22	MLB	MIL	10%	13	11	1	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	91	231	91	322		252	23	8	286	77	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	AAA	MIL	—	203	169	38	6	1	12	17	43	15	8	2	225	348	485	833	260	224	21	8	366	138	+9	+1	-0	+1	+6	1.6
TOT	22	AAA	MIL	—	320	264	59	10	1	17	30	73	23	12	3	223	353	462	815	239	237	23	9	357	132	+11	+1	-1	+1	+9	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIL	52%	417	344	74	15	1	15	45	103	25	13	4	215	348	395	743	180	259	25	11	339	118	+8	+1	-3	+1	+12	2.0
2028	24	MLB	MIL	67%	465	387	86	17	2	17	49	113	26	15	4	222	348	408	757	186	263	24	11	342	120	+10	+1	-3	+2	+13	2.4
2029	25	MLB	MIL	73%	488	407	91	18	2	18	52	117	26	15	5	224	348	410	759	187	265	24	11	344	121	+12	+1	-3	+2	+14	2.5
2030	26	MLB	MIL	77%	500	417	94	18	2	19	53	120	26	16	5	225	349	415	764	189	265	24	11	344	122	+12	+1	-3	+2	+14	2.7
2031	27	MLB	MIL	76%	501	416	94	18	2	19	54	120	26	16	5	226	351	416	767	190	265	24	11	344	122	+12	+1	-3	+2	+14	2.7
2032	28	MLB	MIL	76%	497	414	93	18	2	19	54	120	26	15	5	225	350	415	766	191	264	24	11	343	121	+12	+1	-4	+2	+14	2.5
2033	29	MLB	MIL	74%	488	406	90	17	2	18	53	119	26	14	4	222	348	406	755	185	263	24	11	341	119	+11	+1	-5	+2	+14	2.3
2034	30	MLB	MIL	73%	478	398	87	17	1	18	52	117	25	12	4	219	345	402	747	183	261	24	11	338	117	+9	+1	-5	+2	+14	2.0
2035	31	MLB	MIL	73%	464	386	83	16	1	17	51	115	24	10	3	215	343	394	737	179	259	25	11	334	114	+7	+1	-6	+2	+13	1.7
2036	32	MLB	MIL	72%	446	371	79	15	1	16	49	113	23	8	2	213	341	388	729	175	255	25	11	328	110	+5	+1	-6	+2	+13	1.4
2037	33	MLB	MIL	72%	416	347	71	13	1	14	45	107	21	6	2	205	332	369	701	164	250	26	11	321	104	+2	+0	-7	+1	+12	0.9
2038	34	MLB	MIL	68%	371	309	61	11	1	12	40	98	19	4	1	197	326	356	682	159	243	26	11	313	97	-1	+0	-7	+1	+11	0.4
2039	35	MLB	MIL	63%	318	265	51	9	1	10	34	86	16	2	1	192	321	347	668	155	236	27	11	303	90	-4	+0	-8	+1	+9	-0.1
2040	36	MLB	MIL	54%	259	217	39	6	1	7	27	72	13	1	0	180	307	313	621	134	229	28	10	292	82	-5	+0	-8	+1	+7	-0.5
2027	23	MLB	MIL	52%	219	181	40	8	1	8	23	54	13	7	2	221	350	409	759	188	257	25	11	293	82	-4	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2028	24	MLB	MIL	67%	310	257	56	11	1	11	33	75	17	10	3	218	345	397	742	179	260	24	11	298	86	-5	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.4
2029	25	MLB	MIL	73%	358	298	66	13	1	13	38	86	19	11	3	221	346	403	749	181	262	24	11	301	89	-5	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.6
2030	26	MLB	MIL	77%	383	319	71	14	1	14	41	92	20	12	4	223	347	404	752	182	263	24	11	303	90	-4	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.6
2031	27	MLB	MIL	76%	382	318	70	14	1	14	41	92	20	12	4	220	346	403	748	182	263	24	11	303	90	-4	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.6
2032	28	MLB	MIL	76%	379	315	69	13	1	14	41	91	20	11	3	219	346	400	746	181	262	24	11	302	89	-5	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.5
2033	29	MLB	MIL	74%	363	301	66	13	1	13	40	88	19	10	3	219	347	399	746	179	261	24	11	300	88	-5	+1	-3	+1	+10	0.4
2034	30	MLB	MIL	73%	350	291	63	12	1	13	38	86	18	9	3	216	343	399	742	182	259	25	11	297	85	-6	+1	-4	+1	+10	0.2
2035	31	MLB	MIL	73%	337	279	60	11	1	12	37	84	18	7	2	215	344	391	735	176	256	25	11	293	82	-7	+1	-4	+1	+10	0.0
2036	32	MLB	MIL	72%	323	268	57	11	1	11	35	82	17	6	2	213	341	384	725	172	252	25	11	288	78	-8	+0	-5	+1	+9	-0.2
2037	33	MLB	MIL	72%	300	249	51	9	1	10	33	77	15	4	1	205	333	369	703	165	248	26	11	281	73	-9	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.4
2038	34	MLB	MIL	68%	251	209	41	7	1	8	27	66	13	3	1	196	325	354	679	158	241	26	11	273	67	-9	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.6
2039	35	MLB	MIL	63%	201	168	31	5	0	6	21	55	10	1	0	185	312	321	633	137	234	27	10	263	59	-9	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.8
2040	36	MLB	MIL	54%	140	117	20	3	0	4	15	39	7	1	0	171	302	299	601	128	227	28	11	253	52	-8	+0	-4	+0	+4	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4309	3581	762	144	12	151	464	1070	227	104	31	213	340	386	726	173	256	25	11	292	82	-88	+8	-50	+15	+122	0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	540	116	22	2	23	70	161	34	16	5	215	342	391	732	176	258	25	11	292	82	-13	+1	-7	+2	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	7522	6221	1298	252	24	252	821	1947	422	232	71	209	340	378	719	170	257	26	11	325	107	+60	+18	-73	+27	+213	25.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	538	113	22	2	22	71	168	36	20	6	210	341	381	722	171	259	26	11	325	107	+5	+2	-6	+2	+18	2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	—	41	32	12	3	0	1	7	8	2	9	1	375	512	562	1.075	188	478	20	17	476	223	+6	+1	—	—	+1	0.8
2023	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	440	339	79	18	3	11	76	99	21	30	10	233	404	401	805	168	292	22	17	368	140	+20	+2	—	—	+12	3.5
2024	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	418	295	67	15	1	11	78	89	40	28	10	227	448	397	845	169	280	21	19	392	158	+27	+2	—	—	+12	4.2
2025	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	278	211	49	13	0	11	43	60	21	10	3	232	408	450	858	218	270	22	15	387	154	+17	+1	—	—	+8	2.6
2025	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	37	23	5	2	0	0	9	4	3	0	0	217	472	304	777	87	250	11	24	372	143	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	70	51	17	3	0	3	11	12	4	4	1	333	471	569	1.039	235	368	17	16	438	193	+7	+0	—	—	+2	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rickie Weeks Jr.last yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,098 PA	13	5,098	161	132	246	344	420	+12	-40	23.3	22.4
	/162	664	21	17	246	344	420	+1.5	-5.2	3.0	pk7: 22
#2Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#3Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,328	156	106	217	340	396	+12	-26	20.5	17.5
	/162	664	24	16	217	340	396	+1.9	-4.0	3.1	pk7: 14
#4Travis Shawlast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,671 PA	7	2,671	114	20	239	322	441	+4	+6	13.4	13.4
	/162	664	28	5	239	322	441	+1.1	+1.6	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	12	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
	/162	664	20	13	231	330	383	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#6Mark Bellhornlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,181 PA	6	2,181	63	21	233	345	404	+2	+5	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	19	6	233	345	404	+0.6	+1.5	3.1	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Adams (OGILVIE)	22	30→44	40→52	30→38	57	223/353/462	239	237	17	12	23%	9%	132	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	40→50	49→50	40→50	46	210/286/345	135	271	18	4	29%	8%	77	+0.1	236/321/369	133	306	14	10	26%	10%	98	+1.6	276/369/436	160	338	18	13	22%	11%	130	+2.7
●Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	53	208/315/362	154	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+1.3	214/303/389	175	277	22	11	29%	11%	95	+1.4	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	47→60	49→55	41	242/301/379	137	306	14	12	25%	5%	92	+1.2	249/319/435	186	302	22	19	25%	6%	115	+2.7	247/321/459	212	303	27	25	27%	7%	117	+2.6
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	50→53	53→60	46→50	47	255/321/428	172	316	21	10	26%	8%	112	+2.6	261/329/443	182	303	24	9	22%	9%	120	+3.1	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	113	+2.9
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/406	171	300	20	12	28%	8%	101	+1.8	230/301/408	178	293	21	10	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
●Elijah Dukes 2008 · MLB	24	47→52	53→55	47→50	54	241/323/415	174	271	20	12	20%	10%	110	+2.4	244/342/414	170	292	17	14	21%	12%	118	+3.0	247/350/417	170	297	16	14	21%	12%	117	+2.2
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	52→60	45	49	231/306/395	163	263	22	7	22%	8%	98	+1.6	237/300/420	183	287	26	5	27%	7%	102	+1.9	232/287/415	183	287	28	2	29%	6%	94	+0.9
●Willy Adames 2019 · MLB	23	50→52	44→65	46→50	46	241/304/360	118	321	12	10	28%	8%	87	+0.8	254/318/429	175	333	21	7	28%	9%	111	+2.5	236/326/443	207	281	27	11	26%	11%	115	+3.1
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	57→60	45→50	44	212/294/409	197	278	26	6	33%	8%	97	+1.5	245/312/431	186	310	22	9	27%	7%	110	+2.4	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
★Troy Tulowitzki 2007 · MLB	22	50→57	47→60	46→50	47	248/308/388	140	293	14	8	20%	7%	96	+1.5	274/343/451	177	312	19	8	18%	9%	127	+3.6	282/358/481	198	314	22	9	17%	10%	135	+4.1
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	48→58	47→55	47→45	48	237/314/374	137	295	14	6	24%	8%	95	+1.4	241/325/402	161	291	19	6	23%	9%	108	+2.3	232/333/399	167	273	21	3	22%	11%	108	+1.7
●Gary Sánchez 2015 · AA	22	46→50	48→65	45	43	236/287/374	138	292	17	4	25%	6%	84	+0.6	249/303/435	186	293	24	6	24%	6%	107	+2.2	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4
●Tyler Flowers 2008 · A	22	48→55	46→55	41→40	46	237/294/376	139	294	13	4	24%	7%	87	+0.8	239/322/398	159	324	16	5	29%	10%	105	+2.1	259/360/408	148	335	17	0	25%	10%	121	+1.8
●Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→53	46→60	48→50	49	229/305/362	133	299	13	13	27%	9%	89	+0.9	214/286/331	117	295	10	13	29%	9%	72	-0.2	245/312/443	198	315	23	11	28%	8%	108	+1.4
✕Victor Castillo 2007 · A	22	47	47→50	42→40	57	235/333/368	134	274	14	5	19%	11%	103	+1.9	229/283/304	75	292	7	5	23%	6%	63	-0.8	240/288/298	58	301	6	3	21%	6%	62	-0.3
●Isaac Paredes 2022 · MLB	23	47→49	45→60	46→40	54	233/309/352	120	264	13	3	17%	9%	88	+0.9	232/326/431	199	246	25	2	18%	10%	116	+2.8	242/348/439	196	257	26	1	17%	11%	124	+3.1
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49	52→65	49→30	45	253/301/419	166	290	21	9	21%	6%	102	+1.8	210/268/386	176	272	22	3	31%	5%	80	+0.4	235/308/481	246	299	35	0	33%	8%	120	+2.4
●Brandon Drury 2015 · AA	22	47→54	48→65	41→40	41	238/279/387	149	285	15	3	22%	5%	84	+0.6	257/299/392	135	307	13	3	20%	5%	93	+1.3	259/310/485	225	304	29	1	25%	6%	121	+2.5
●Randy Arozarena 2018 · AAA	23	47→57	47→55	49→55	43	232/294/379	147	290	14	14	24%	6%	89	+0.9	250/319/405	155	317	16	22	25%	6%	106	+2.2	259/347/445	186	326	21	23	25%	10%	124	+3.6
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	51→57	45→50	49→40	54	248/322/382	134	283	11	5	16%	9%	101	+1.8	258/337/397	139	278	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.5	262/347/393	131	276	16	0	11%	11%	111	+1.7