Miguel Vargas — OGILVIE

Miguel Vargas3B Chicago White Sox

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 225 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION409 act + 272 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 101100vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .333 / .432

PA272

HR11

SB6

K%18

BB%12

BABIP239

ISO205

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

905.4%

xwOBA

740.336

POWER50

Barrel%

6510.4

Avg EV

5389.3

Bat Spd

6572.9

EYE60

Chase%

9016.6%

SPEED50

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 922 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

281

641

—

wRC+

105

◀◀L

wOBA

322

291

◀L

ISO

179

149

◀◀L

BABIP

268

215

◀◀L

16.7%

19.8%

◀◀L

BB%

10.0%

11.2%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$2M	+1.7	$14M	+$12M
2027	Arb-3	$14M	+2.9	$22M	+$9M
Totals		$16M		$35M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	2 teams	—	229	208	53	11	2	1	15	49	3	7	1	255	314	341	656	87	325	21	7	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	2 teams	—	229	200	66	15	3	2	23	36	3	7	1	330	407	465	872	135	390	16	10	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	2 teams	—	559	510	129	34	2	6	36	109	6	13	4	253	310	363	673	110	307	19	6	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	2 teams	—	559	491	151	38	3	7	55	83	6	13	4	308	384	440	824	132	354	15	10	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	2 teams	—	542	500	133	22	2	23	28	121	7	11	1	266	314	456	770	190	303	22	5	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	2 teams	—	542	483	154	27	2	23	45	89	7	11	1	319	385	526	911	207	347	16	8	396	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	2 teams	—	570	513	121	29	4	15	45	109	6	17	5	236	305	396	701	160	268	19	8	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	2 teams	—	570	485	141	33	4	18	73	89	6	17	5	291	390	487	877	196	320	16	13	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	—	589	505	107	28	4	15	72	134	6	11	2	212	317	372	690	160	255	23	12	303	90	-7	+1	-5	+2	+17	0.9
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	—	589	492	118	30	4	17	84	118	6	11	2	240	357	421	778	181	279	20	14	346	123	+15	+1	-5	+2	+17	3.2
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	428	363	71	20	1	13	51	100	7	11	7	196	306	364	670	168	226	23	12	297	85	-7	-1	-4	+2	+12	0.2
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	428	351	73	21	1	13	63	90	7	11	7	208	340	385	724	177	235	21	15	325	107	+3	-1	-4	+2	+12	1.3
2025	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	569	504	116	31	2	15	56	100	6	6	0	230	314	389	703	159	258	18	10	314	98	-1	+1	-6	+2	+16	1.3
2025	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	569	504	118	32	2	16	56	100	6	6	0	234	318	401	719	167	261	18	10	321	104	+2	+1	-6	+2	+16	1.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	CWS	—	409	344	84	20	1	21	56	67	5	11	2	244	358	491	849	247	242	16	14	364	136	+17	+1	-1	+1	+12	3.1
YTD	26	MLB	CWS	—	409	343	84	20	1	21	56	67	5	11	2	245	358	493	851	248	243	16	14	371	142	+19	+1	-1	+1	+12	3.4
ROS	26	MLB	CWS	100%	272	233	53	13	1	11	34	48	3	6	1	227	333	432	765	205	236	18	12	339	118	+5	+1	-3	+1	+8	1.2
ROS	26	MLB	CWS	100%	273	234	53	13	1	11	34	48	3	6	1	226	332	432	764	205	237	18	12	333	113	+4	+1	-3	+1	+8	1.1
FULL	26	MLB	CWS	—	682	578	137	33	2	32	90	115	8	17	3	237	348	467	815	230	241	17	13	351	127	+21	+2	-4	+2	+19	4.2
TOT	26	MLB	CWS	—	681	577	137	33	2	32	90	115	8	17	3	237	348	467	815	230	241	17	13	354	129	+22	+2	-4	+2	+19	4.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	CWS	100%	660	565	127	31	3	27	82	116	8	15	3	225	331	434	765	209	233	18	12	337	116	+12	+2	-7	+2	+19	2.8
2028	28	MLB	CWS	100%	655	560	126	31	3	27	82	116	8	14	3	225	332	436	768	211	232	18	13	336	116	+12	+2	-8	+2	+19	2.7
2029	29	MLB	CWS	100%	642	548	121	30	2	26	81	115	8	13	3	221	330	425	755	204	231	18	13	334	114	+10	+1	-9	+2	+18	2.4
2030	30	MLB	CWS	100%	629	538	117	29	2	25	79	114	7	11	2	217	325	418	744	201	229	18	13	331	112	+8	+1	-9	+2	+18	2.1
2031	31	MLB	CWS	100%	616	527	113	28	2	24	77	114	7	9	2	214	322	412	734	197	226	19	12	327	108	+6	+1	-10	+2	+17	1.7
2032	32	MLB	CWS	100%	604	516	108	26	2	23	76	114	7	8	2	209	319	401	720	192	222	19	13	321	103	+2	+1	-10	+2	+17	1.2
2033	33	MLB	CWS	100%	521	445	91	22	2	19	65	101	6	5	1	204	314	391	705	187	216	19	12	312	97	-2	+1	-10	+2	+15	0.6
2034	34	MLB	CWS	100%	440	377	72	17	1	15	55	88	5	3	1	191	302	361	663	170	208	20	12	302	89	-5	+0	-10	+2	+12	-0.1
2027	27	MLB	CWS	100%	660	565	127	31	3	27	82	116	8	15	3	225	331	434	765	209	234	18	12	331	111	+8	+2	-7	+2	+19	2.4
2028	28	MLB	CWS	100%	655	560	126	31	3	27	82	116	8	14	3	225	332	436	768	211	233	18	13	330	111	+8	+2	-8	+2	+19	2.3
2029	29	MLB	CWS	100%	642	548	121	30	2	26	81	115	8	13	3	221	330	425	755	204	232	18	13	328	109	+7	+1	-9	+2	+18	2.0
2030	30	MLB	CWS	100%	629	538	117	29	2	25	79	114	7	11	2	217	325	418	744	201	230	18	13	325	107	+5	+1	-9	+2	+18	1.8
2031	31	MLB	CWS	100%	616	527	113	28	2	24	77	114	7	9	2	214	322	412	734	197	227	19	12	321	104	+2	+1	-10	+2	+17	1.4
2032	32	MLB	CWS	100%	604	516	109	27	2	23	76	114	7	8	2	211	321	405	726	194	223	19	13	314	99	-1	+1	-10	+2	+17	0.9
2033	33	MLB	CWS	100%	521	445	90	22	1	19	65	101	6	5	1	202	312	384	696	182	217	19	12	306	93	-4	+1	-10	+2	+15	0.3
2034	34	MLB	CWS	100%	440	377	73	17	1	16	55	88	5	3	1	194	304	371	676	178	209	20	12	296	85	-8	+0	-10	+2	+12	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6200	5323	1136	283	23	227	752	1157	72	97	21	213	319	403	722	190	229	19	12	316	100	-1	+11	-91	+18	+176	11.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	558	119	30	2	24	79	121	8	10	2	213	320	403	723	190	228	19	12	316	100	-0	+1	-9	+2	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	8525	7412	1658	402	35	285	934	1648	100	160	38	224	319	403	721	179	248	19	11	319	102	+20	+17	-91	+22	+242	21.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	127	31	3	22	71	126	8	12	3	225	320	407	727	182	249	19	11	319	102	+2	+1	-7	+2	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	89	75	16	1	1	0	10	20	1	0	0	213	314	253	567	40	281	22	11	262	58	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2018	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	140	125	50	14	2	2	13	16	2	7	1	400	464	592	1.056	192	449	11	9	463	213	+18	+1	—	—	+4	2.3
2019	19	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	236	211	60	18	1	2	20	40	3	4	3	284	355	408	762	123	341	17	8	340	119	+5	-0	—	—	+7	1.2
2019	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	323	280	91	20	2	5	35	43	3	9	1	325	406	464	870	139	363	13	11	383	152	+19	+1	—	—	+9	3.0
2021	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	370	327	105	16	1	16	36	57	2	7	1	321	392	523	915	202	344	15	10	398	163	+26	+1	—	—	+10	3.8
2021	21	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	172	156	49	11	1	7	9	32	5	4	0	314	371	532	903	218	353	19	5	392	158	+11	+1	—	—	+5	1.7
2022	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	50	47	8	1	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	170	204	255	459	85	206	26	4	204	14	-5	+0	-1	-6	+1	-1.1
2022	22	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	520	438	133	32	4	17	71	76	6	16	5	304	408	511	919	208	331	15	14	402	166	+39	+1	—	—	+15	5.6
2023	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	304	256	50	15	4	7	38	61	4	3	2	195	308	367	675	172	224	20	12	301	88	-4	-0	-5	+2	+9	0.2
2023	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	285	236	68	15	0	10	46	57	2	8	0	288	408	479	887	191	341	20	16	395	160	+19	+2	—	—	+8	3.0
2024	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	237	206	31	7	0	5	25	57	3	3	1	150	252	257	509	107	177	24	11	237	40	-16	+0	-4	+2	+7	-1.2
2024	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	191	145	42	14	1	8	38	33	4	8	6	290	449	566	1.015	276	315	17	20	434	190	+19	-1	—	—	+5	2.5
2025	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	569	504	118	32	2	16	56	100	6	6	0	234	318	401	719	167	261	18	10	321	104	+2	+1	-6	+2	+16	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1160	1013	207	55	6	29	121	231	13	13	3	204	297	356	653	152	233	20	10	294	83	-23	+1	-15	-0	+33	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	14	7,004	257	113	216	317	406	+25	-44	26.7	23.9
	/162	664	24	11	216	317	406	+2.4	-4.2	2.5	pk7: 21
#1Rickie Weeks Jr.last yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,098 PA	13	5,098	161	132	246	344	420	+12	-40	23.3	22.4
	/162	664	21	17	246	344	420	+1.5	-5.2	3.0	pk7: 22
#2Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#3Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#4Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#5Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#6Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Vargas (OGILVIE)	26	45	50	50	60	237/348/467	230	241	32	17	17%	13%	129	+4.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Young 2010 · MLB	26	45→49	54→60	51→55	51	234/311/430	196	283	21	15	25%	10%	108	+2.3	238/324/422	184	283	20	19	22%	11%	112	+2.6	236/326/419	183	275	21	21	22%	11%	109	+2.2
●Eric Byrnes 2002 · MLB	26	48→57	58→60	51→60	53	254/329/457	203	269	27	12	18%	9%	124	+3.4	257/322/440	183	285	19	14	17%	8%	116	+2.8	261/323/441	179	281	19	28	15%	7%	112	+2.5
✕Elijah Dukes 2009 · MLB	25	48→52	54→55	49→50	59	242/350/428	186	290	21	16	23%	13%	124	+3.4	246/334/405	159	290	15	12	20%	11%	112	+2.6	247/334/400	152	285	13	9	17%	10%	106	+1.8
●Jose Ortiz 2002 · MLB	25	46	57→55	50→45	49	245/305/438	193	250	26	10	16%	7%	109	+2.4	242/308/370	128	271	14	9	16%	8%	92	+1.2	280/327/422	142	315	18	4	17%	5%	110	+0.9
✕Eric Munson 2004 · MLB	26	43	56→60	49→40	54	234/307/418	184	244	26	6	18%	9%	105	+2.1	230/297/432	202	254	28	4	22%	8%	104	+2.0	221/285/421	201	242	28	1	23%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Joe Mather 2009 · MLB	27	43→46	58→60	51→50	47	237/303/443	206	256	27	10	21%	7%	110	+2.4	216/274/356	140	262	15	11	23%	7%	74	-0.1	204/259/308	104	260	10	8	25%	7%	51	-0.7
✕Luis Urías 2023 · MLB	26	47→57	53→55	43→45	54	244/335/417	174	281	21	4	21%	10%	116	+2.8	221/317/358	137	264	16	6	22%	10%	94	+1.3	226/309/345	119	258	14	6	18%	9%	85	+0.4
●Trevor Story 2019 · MLB	26	44→49	57→60	53→55	45	232/298/434	201	292	24	17	29%	8%	105	+2.1	241/312/434	193	297	22	21	26%	9%	111	+2.5	234/312/421	187	284	21	23	25%	9%	104	+1.7
✕Nolan Reimold 2010 · MLB	26	52→58	56→60	49→50	52	267/338/463	196	300	24	10	20%	9%	128	+3.7	231/306/382	151	270	18	11	21%	9%	95	+1.4	234/310/359	125	308	13	5	27%	9%	87	+0.4
✕Paul DeJong 2020 · MLB	26	45→50	59→60	43→45	47	243/315/452	209	281	27	6	24%	8%	117	+2.9	219/298/399	180	263	24	7	26%	9%	96	+1.5	227/278/404	177	297	25	5	32%	5%	87	+0.6
●Eli Marrero 2001 · MLB	27	46→49	55	57→50	52	241/316/425	183	252	23	17	16%	8%	110	+2.4	251/311/423	172	273	20	15	16%	8%	107	+2.2	270/331/450	180	296	21	13	17%	8%	113	+1.2
✕Daulton Varsho 2022 · MLB	26	46→49	57→60	55→50	50	242/308/445	203	271	24	14	22%	8%	111	+2.5	227/294/415	188	267	23	15	24%	8%	98	+1.6	218/290/402	184	257	23	15	25%	8%	91	+1.1
✕James Darnell 2012 · MLB	25	49→53	55	46→40	50	253/318/440	188	288	23	4	21%	8%	115	+2.7	231/290/390	159	279	19	6	24%	7%	90	+1.0	208/285/376	168	235	23	3	23%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Jordan Luplow 2020 · MLB	26	49→48	56→65	46→50	52	255/332/451	196	295	23	9	22%	10%	123	+3.3	227/321/436	209	266	26	8	25%	11%	115	+2.7	193/293/392	199	214	28	7	25%	11%	90	+0.5
●Lars Nootbaar 2023 · MLB	25	44→53	56→55	48→50	56	232/323/427	195	266	24	9	23%	12%	113	+2.6	244/340/410	166	289	18	10	21%	12%	115	+2.8	243/342/393	150	288	16	8	20%	13%	107	+1.9
●Enrique Hernández 2019 · MLB	27	46→56	57→60	53→45	56	245/327/451	206	269	25	6	20%	11%	121	+3.2	245/318/437	192	275	23	5	20%	9%	114	+2.7	238/315/424	186	269	22	3	20%	9%	106	+1.4
✕Josh VanMeter 2021 · MLB	26	44→47	53→55	50	48	228/296/403	176	270	20	15	24%	8%	96	+1.5	218/309/381	163	277	18	9	26%	11%	95	+1.4	205/310/363	157	260	18	7	27%	13%	89	+0.4
●Wes Helms 2002 · MLB	26	44→50	56→55	48→30	50	235/304/432	197	272	23	6	23%	9%	107	+2.2	247/311/417	170	299	20	3	24%	7%	105	+2.1	288/355/449	162	341	14	0	19%	8%	128	+1.6
●Scott Hairston 2006 · MLB	26	45→51	56→60	50	44	241/294/433	192	278	24	7	23%	6%	102	+1.9	249/312/448	199	287	25	6	22%	8%	114	+2.7	249/315/457	208	283	26	4	22%	8%	114	+1.7
✕Brad Miller 2017 · MLB	27	47→56	56→60	48→50	49	246/311/447	202	285	24	9	23%	8%	113	+2.6	232/314/419	187	295	22	7	27%	11%	108	+2.3	231/323/465	234	278	32	5	28%	11%	120	+1.5