Lars Nootbaar — OGILVIE

Lars NootbaarLF St. Louis Cardinals

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 4.442 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION161 act + 420 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 88103vR 109

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .338 / .401

PA420

HR12

K%20

BB%12

BABIP281

ISO159

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

906.2%

xwOBA

740.336

POWER55

Barrel%

6310.1

Avg EV

8591.5

Bat Spd

7073.4

EYE60

Chase%

9020.5%

SPEED50

Sprint

4627.3

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 988 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

289

699

—

wRC+

108

▶▶R

wOBA

299

326

▶R

ISO

118

158

▶▶R

BABIP

301

271

◀L

25.6%

17.7%

▶▶R

BB%

10.0%

11.7%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.442 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.7M
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+1.6	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$10M		$15M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A+	3 teams	—	387	355	75	7	2	5	31	73	0	4	4	211	275	285	559	73	252	19	8	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	3 teams	—	387	341	90	9	2	7	45	55	0	4	4	264	350	364	713	100	296	14	12	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	3 teams	—	347	311	78	6	2	14	29	81	4	3	4	251	323	418	741	167	294	23	8	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	3 teams	—	347	296	84	11	3	16	44	68	4	3	4	284	384	503	887	220	318	20	13	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	2 teams	—	424	357	77	19	3	17	57	95	2	6	1	216	327	429	755	213	237	22	13	330	110	+5	+1	+3	-5	+12	1.7
2022	24	MLB	2 teams	—	424	353	80	20	3	18	61	90	2	6	1	227	344	453	797	227	245	21	14	347	124	+12	+1	+3	-5	+12	2.4
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	519	441	117	24	1	16	73	101	1	11	1	265	371	433	804	168	309	19	14	352	127	+16	+2	+2	+2	+15	3.7
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	519	441	118	24	1	16	73	101	1	11	1	268	373	435	808	168	312	19	14	360	134	+20	+2	+2	+2	+15	4.1
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	—	459	395	93	20	3	13	59	97	1	7	3	235	336	400	736	165	278	21	13	322	105	+2	+0	-3	-5	+13	0.8
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	—	459	392	95	20	3	14	62	92	1	7	3	242	347	416	763	173	280	20	14	340	118	+10	+0	-3	-5	+13	1.6
2025	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	583	509	119	24	1	13	64	119	6	4	5	234	326	361	688	128	279	20	11	305	92	-5	-1	-4	-6	+17	-0.1
2025	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	583	509	119	24	1	13	64	119	6	4	5	234	326	361	688	128	279	20	11	312	97	-2	-1	-4	-6	+17	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	STL	—	161	138	34	7	1	5	22	32	0	1	1	246	350	420	770	174	284	20	14	328	109	+2	-0	+0	-2	+5	0.4
YTD	28	MLB	STL	—	161	136	34	7	1	5	24	31	0	1	1	250	362	426	789	176	287	19	15	353	128	+5	-0	+0	-2	+5	0.8
ROS	28	MLB	STL	100%	420	364	88	18	2	12	51	84	2	4	2	242	338	401	739	159	281	20	12	333	113	+6	+0	-0	-4	+12	1.4
ROS	28	MLB	STL	100%	420	364	88	18	2	12	51	84	2	4	2	242	338	401	739	159	281	20	12	328	109	+4	+0	-0	-4	+12	1.2
FULL	28	MLB	STL	—	581	502	122	25	3	17	73	116	2	5	3	243	341	406	748	163	282	20	13	328	109	+6	-0	-0	-6	+16	1.7
TOT	28	MLB	STL	—	581	502	122	25	3	17	73	116	2	5	3	243	341	406	748	163	282	20	13	331	112	+8	-0	-0	-6	+16	1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	STL	100%	571	493	119	25	3	16	70	116	3	5	2	241	339	402	741	160	280	20	12	329	110	+7	+0	-1	-6	+16	1.6
2028	30	MLB	STL	100%	560	484	114	24	2	15	68	115	3	5	2	236	333	386	720	151	278	21	12	326	108	+5	+0	-2	-6	+16	1.3
2029	31	MLB	STL	100%	549	474	111	23	2	15	67	114	3	4	2	234	333	386	719	152	274	21	12	321	104	+2	+0	-3	-6	+16	0.9
2030	32	MLB	STL	100%	538	465	106	21	2	14	65	114	3	3	1	228	326	372	698	144	270	21	12	314	99	-1	+0	-4	-6	+15	0.6
2031	33	MLB	STL	100%	493	428	94	18	2	12	60	107	2	2	1	220	318	355	674	136	264	22	12	306	93	-4	+0	-4	-5	+14	0.0
2032	34	MLB	STL	100%	446	387	82	15	2	10	54	100	2	2	1	212	312	339	650	127	255	22	12	296	85	-8	+0	-5	-5	+13	-0.5
2027	29	MLB	STL	100%	571	493	119	25	3	16	70	116	3	5	2	241	339	402	741	160	279	20	12	325	107	+4	+0	-1	-6	+16	1.4
2028	30	MLB	STL	100%	560	484	114	24	2	15	68	115	3	5	2	236	333	386	720	151	278	21	12	322	104	+3	+0	-2	-6	+16	1.1
2029	31	MLB	STL	100%	549	474	111	23	2	15	67	114	3	4	2	234	333	386	719	152	274	21	12	317	101	+0	+0	-3	-6	+16	0.7
2030	32	MLB	STL	100%	538	465	106	21	2	14	65	114	3	3	1	228	326	372	698	144	269	21	12	311	96	-3	+0	-4	-6	+15	0.4
2031	33	MLB	STL	100%	493	428	94	18	2	12	60	107	2	2	1	220	318	355	674	136	263	22	12	303	90	-6	+0	-4	-5	+14	-0.1
2032	34	MLB	STL	100%	446	387	82	15	2	10	54	100	2	2	1	212	312	339	650	127	255	22	12	293	82	-9	+0	-5	-5	+13	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5539	4777	1121	228	24	152	687	1146	27	53	22	235	334	388	722	153	276	21	12	322	104	+27	+2	-20	-56	+157	11.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	132	27	3	18	81	134	3	6	3	235	335	390	726	155	276	21	12	322	104	+3	+0	-2	-7	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	6296	5463	1273	244	27	172	748	1316	32	60	29	233	329	382	711	149	274	21	12	317	101	+6	+0	-20	-60	+178	10.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	132	25	3	18	77	136	3	6	3	234	329	385	714	151	275	21	12	317	101	+1	+0	-2	-6	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	110	93	25	2	1	0	16	22	0	1	1	269	376	312	688	43	347	20	15	320	103	+0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2019	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	155	142	39	3	0	2	13	20	0	1	2	275	335	338	674	63	308	13	8	309	94	-1	-1	—	—	+4	0.3
2019	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	122	106	26	4	1	5	16	13	0	2	1	245	344	443	788	198	239	11	13	351	127	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2021	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	124	109	26	3	1	5	13	28	0	2	1	239	320	422	742	183	273	23	10	325	107	+1	+0	+1	-4	+4	0.2
2021	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	136	117	36	2	1	6	17	25	2	1	3	308	404	496	900	188	349	18	12	400	164	+10	-1	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	87	70	22	6	1	5	14	15	2	0	0	314	442	643	1.085	329	333	17	16	460	210	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	290	66	16	3	14	51	71	1	4	1	228	345	448	793	221	248	20	15	348	124	+10	+0	+3	-5	+10	1.9
2022	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	77	63	14	4	0	4	10	19	1	2	0	222	338	476	814	254	233	25	13	345	123	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	503	426	111	23	1	14	72	99	1	11	1	261	369	418	787	157	307	20	14	353	128	+16	+2	+2	+2	+14	3.6
2023	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	16	15	7	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	467	500	933	1.433	467	455	12	6	610	325	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.5
2024	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	405	348	85	18	3	12	52	79	1	7	3	244	344	417	761	172	281	20	13	338	117	+8	+0	-3	-5	+11	1.2
2024	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	20	17	3	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	176	300	235	535	59	231	20	15	259	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	26	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	34	27	7	1	0	2	7	9	0	0	0	259	412	519	930	259	312	26	21	410	172	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	583	509	119	24	1	13	64	119	6	4	5	234	326	361	688	128	279	20	11	312	97	-2	-1	-4	-6	+17	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1962	1682	407	84	9	58	252	396	9	28	11	242	344	406	750	164	281	20	13	335	115	+32	+1	-1	-18	+56	7.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Austin Kearnslast yr '12 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,148 PA	11	4,148	121	33	254	351	415	-42	-4	15.7	15.9
	/162	664	19	5	254	351	415	-6.8	-0.6	2.5	pk7: 16
#2Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	13	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
	/162	664	20	8	262	321	426	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
#3Eric Hinskelast yr '13 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,310 PA	12	4,310	137	61	249	332	430	-34	-33	13.0	12.9
	/162	664	21	9	249	332	430	-5.2	-5.1	2.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	5,821	159	57	237	332	390	-62	-12	13.0	12.0
	/162	664	18	7	237	332	390	-7.1	-1.3	1.5	pk7: 11
#4Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	13	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
	/162	664	22	5	242	343	425	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#5Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#6Robbie Grossmanlast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,561 PA	12	4,561	93	67	242	345	374	-49	-62	5.0	6.1
	/162	664	14	10	242	345	374	-7.1	-9.0	0.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lars Nootbaar (OGILVIE)	28	50	55	50	60	243/341/406	163	282	17	5	20%	13%	112	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Trenton Brooks 2023 · AAA	28	48→52	49→55	49→45	50	241/310/393	152	285	16	5	22%	8%	98	+1.6	239/319/386	147	274	16	8	18%	10%	101	+1.8	231/316/375	144	262	16	8	18%	10%	96	+1.1
✕Ben Grieve 2004 · MLB	28	51→57	49→55	48→45	60	250/359/402	151	306	16	7	22%	13%	121	+3.2	244/335/402	158	299	17	4	23%	11%	111	+2.5	239/329/396	157	294	17	0	23%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Gabe Gross 2008 · MLB	28	51→55	51→55	52→50	56	254/337/423	169	301	17	10	21%	11%	117	+2.9	239/326/391	152	287	15	9	21%	11%	105	+2.1	233/321/365	132	282	12	9	21%	11%	92	+0.6
✕Bobby Kielty 2005 · MLB	28	48→53	50	48→45	62	242/348/404	162	274	16	7	18%	13%	118	+3.0	250/330/392	142	292	15	5	18%	10%	107	+2.2	253/329/385	132	300	13	3	19%	10%	100	+0.9
✕Travis Snider 2016 · MLB	28	50→53	48→60	44→50	51	248/319/390	142	299	15	4	22%	9%	101	+1.8	234/298/338	104	316	9	4	26%	8%	79	+0.3	220/290/316	96	310	7	2	29%	9%	67	-0.3
●Travis Lee 2003 · MLB	28	52→55	48→55	43→45	56	257/335/405	147	292	15	6	17%	10%	111	+2.5	265/334/427	162	298	17	7	16%	9%	117	+2.9	259/333/421	162	288	17	7	16%	10%	110	+1.9
●Michael Saunders 2015 · MLB	28	51→52	51→55	50→55	53	254/331/427	173	313	17	14	24%	10%	115	+2.8	243/318/415	172	311	18	6	26%	10%	108	+2.3	218/289/383	165	274	18	2	27%	8%	83	+0.4
●Kevin Barker 2002 · MLB	27	49→47	47→55	50→40	60	240/340/381	141	279	14	9	19%	12%	108	+2.3	233/317/364	131	285	14	12	22%	10%	94	+1.3	258/324/436	178	298	19	1	20%	8%	115	+1.8
✕Greg Bird 2021 · MLB	28	43→50	51→55	48→30	51	221/306/385	164	278	19	6	27%	10%	95	+1.4	200/270/350	150	261	19	4	30%	8%	71	-0.3	177/249/320	143	226	18	1	30%	8%	53	-0.9
✕Bronson Sardinha 2011 · AAA	28	53→52	47→50	47→50	50	260/324/411	151	319	12	10	22%	8%	108	+2.3	266/332/409	143	328	14	11	22%	9%	111	+2.5	290/359/425	136	351	15	10	20%	9%	122	+1.7
✕Gregory Polanco 2020 · MLB	28	48→55	55→60	53→55	51	248/321/440	193	293	21	12	23%	10%	115	+2.8	220/290/396	176	280	22	16	29%	9%	92	+1.2	201/272/370	169	252	22	19	29%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Ricky Ledee 2003 · MLB	29	47	48→60	44→50	57	233/323/389	155	275	14	8	20%	11%	103	+1.9	247/332/433	186	289	21	5	21%	11%	118	+3.0	251/335/439	188	292	21	2	21%	11%	113	+1.1
✕John Rodriguez 2007 · MLB	29	52→47	51→55	52→40	48	257/328/427	170	320	18	6	25%	8%	115	+2.7	235/310/394	159	297	18	4	26%	8%	99	+1.7	216/294/374	157	272	19	1	27%	7%	85	+0.3
●David Murphy 2010 · MLB	28	52→60	51→55	48→50	51	262/322/430	168	300	18	10	19%	8%	113	+2.6	276/340/430	154	310	17	14	16%	9%	120	+3.1	284/352/433	149	314	16	15	14%	9%	119	+2.4
✕Brennan Boesch 2013 · MLB	28	53→58	51→60	46→50	47	266/319/429	163	306	18	8	20%	6%	111	+2.5	246/289/400	154	302	17	9	24%	5%	92	+1.2	234/269/369	135	294	15	9	26%	4%	72	-0.1
●Jonah Bride 2023 · MLB	27	48→51	50	49→45	55	241/335/396	155	278	18	4	20%	10%	110	+2.4	243/335/392	149	288	17	5	21%	11%	109	+2.4	239/336/383	143	287	17	3	21%	11%	104	+1.5
✕Cooper Hummel 2022 · AAA	27	47→49	52→50	48→55	55	236/331/407	171	288	19	7	24%	11%	111	+2.5	223/319/369	146	305	12	16	28%	11%	97	+1.5	222/332/370	148	300	12	19	27%	12%	99	+1.1
✕Larry Bigbie 2006 · MLB	28	53→56	47→50	47→50	49	260/321/397	137	316	15	10	22%	8%	104	+2.0	246/308/365	119	317	11	9	24%	8%	89	+1.0	251/312/353	102	331	7	7	25%	8%	85	+0.3
●Terrmel Sledge 2006 · MLB	29	51→52	52→55	48→45	55	257/329/434	177	278	19	8	16%	10%	116	+2.8	246/324/423	177	290	21	7	22%	10%	112	+2.6	241/322/418	178	284	22	5	23%	10%	106	+1.4
●Eric Hinske 2006 · MLB	28	51→55	49→60	46→50	52	252/324/409	157	296	16	11	20%	9%	108	+2.3	250/333/441	191	300	21	9	23%	10%	121	+3.2	245/336/456	212	287	24	9	23%	11%	119	+1.6