Lars Nootbaar — OGILVIE

Lars NootbaarLF St. Louis Cardinals

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB HR -7%K -4% Svc 4.442 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.2 · 2027

wRC+†vL 87114vR 108

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .338 / .402

PA174

HR5

K%20

BB%12

xwOBA.317

Barrel%10.2%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

EYE

62↘60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2027

Barrel%

6310.2

xwOBA

570.317

Avg EV

8291.3

Whiff%

820.076

Chase%

850.248

Speed

4027.0

Bat Spd

7073.4

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.442 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$5M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$8M		$11M	+$4M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A+	3 teams	387	354	76	7	2	6	32	73	0	4	4	.215	.280	.297	.576	.082	.254	19	8	.253	52	-21	-1	+0	-4	+11	-1.5
2021	23	AAA	3 teams	347	310	80	6	3	14	30	79	4	3	4	.258	.331	.432	.764	.174	.301	23	9	.331	111	+4	-1	+1	-4	+10	1.1
2022	24	MLB	2 teams	424	356	79	20	4	17	58	94	2	6	1	.222	.334	.444	.778	.222	.245	22	14	.330	111	+5	+1	+3	-5	+12	1.7
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	519	441	116	25	1	16	73	101	1	11	1	.263	.369	.433	.802	.170	.306	19	14	.349	125	+15	+2	+2	+2	+15	3.6
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	459	395	92	19	3	13	59	96	1	7	3	.233	.334	.395	.729	.162	.273	21	13	.320	103	+1	+0	-3	-5	+13	0.7
2025	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	583	509	120	23	1	14	64	119	6	4	5	.236	.328	.367	.696	.132	.280	20	11	.308	94	-4	-1	-4	-6	+17	0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	STL	174	151	37	7	1	5	20	35	1	2	1	.245	.337	.404	.741	.159	.285	20	11	.334	114	+3	+0	-2	-2	+5	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB	STL	569	493	121	24	2	17	67	115	4	7	2	.245	.340	.406	.746	.160	.284	20	12	.332	112	+8	+1	-6	-6	+16	1.2
2028	30	MLB	STL	557	482	117	23	2	16	66	115	4	5	1	.243	.339	.398	.737	.156	.282	21	12	.329	110	+6	+1	-7	-6	+16	1.0
2029	31	MLB	STL	542	470	112	22	2	15	64	114	3	3	0	.238	.333	.389	.723	.151	.281	21	12	.325	107	+4	+1	-8	-6	+15	0.7
2030	32	MLB	STL	523	453	106	21	1	14	62	113	3	0	0	.234	.330	.377	.708	.143	.280	22	12	.320	103	+2	+0	-8	-6	+15	0.3
2031	33	MLB	STL	493	429	99	19	1	13	58	109	3	0	0	.231	.327	.371	.697	.140	.278	22	12	.315	99	-1	+0	-9	-5	+14	-0.0
2032	34	MLB	STL	446	389	88	17	1	11	52	103	2	0	0	.226	.321	.360	.680	.134	.276	23	12	.308	94	-3	+0	-9	-5	+13	-0.4
2033	35	MLB	STL	391	341	75	14	1	9	45	94	2	0	0	.220	.314	.346	.660	.126	.274	24	12	.300	88	-5	+0	-9	-4	+11	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6414	5573	1318	247	25	180	750	1360	36	52	22	.236	.331	.387	.718	.150	.279	21	12	.319	102	+15	+2	-58	-61	+182	8.0
/ 162G	—			650	565	134	25	3	18	76	138	4	5	2	.237	.332	.388	.720	.150	.281	21	12	.319	102	+1	+0	-6	-6	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	110	93	25	2	1	0	16	22	0	1	1	.269	.376	.312	.688	.043	.347	20	15	.320	103	+0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2019	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	155	142	39	3	0	2	13	20	0	1	2	.275	.335	.338	.674	.063	.308	13	8	.309	94	-1	-1	—	—	+4	0.3
2019	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	122	106	26	4	1	5	16	13	0	2	1	.245	.344	.443	.788	.198	.239	11	13	.351	127	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2021	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	124	109	26	3	1	5	13	28	0	2	1	.239	.320	.422	.742	.183	.273	23	10	.325	107	+1	+0	+1	-4	+4	0.2
2021	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	136	117	36	2	1	6	17	25	2	1	3	.308	.404	.496	.900	.188	.349	18	12	.400	164	+10	-1	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	87	70	22	6	1	5	14	15	2	0	0	.314	.442	.643	1.085	.329	.333	17	16	.460	210	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	347	290	66	16	3	14	51	71	1	4	1	.228	.345	.448	.793	.221	.248	20	15	.348	124	+10	+0	+3	-5	+10	1.9
2022	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	77	63	14	4	0	4	10	19	1	2	0	.222	.338	.476	.814	.254	.233	25	13	.345	123	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	503	426	111	23	1	14	72	99	1	11	1	.261	.369	.418	.787	.157	.307	20	14	.353	128	+16	+2	+2	+2	+14	3.6
2023	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	16	15	7	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	.467	.500	.933	1.433	.467	.455	12	6	.610	325	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.5
2024	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	405	348	85	18	3	12	52	79	1	7	3	.244	.344	.417	.761	.172	.281	20	13	.338	117	+8	+0	-3	-5	+11	1.2
2024	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	20	17	3	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	.176	.300	.235	.535	.059	.231	20	15	.259	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	26	AA	Springfield Cardinals	34	27	7	1	0	2	7	9	0	0	0	.259	.412	.519	.930	.259	.312	26	21	.410	172	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	583	509	119	24	1	13	64	119	6	4	5	.234	.326	.361	.688	.128	.279	20	11	.312	97	-2	-1	-4	-6	+17	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1962	1682	407	84	9	58	252	396	9	28	11	.242	.344	.406	.750	.164	.281	20	13	.335	115	+32	+1	-1	-18	+56	7.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lars Nootbaar (OGILVIE)	28	50	55	50	60	.244/.338/.402	.158	.285	5	2	20%	12%	114	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bobby Kielty 2005 · MLB	28	49→53	50	48→45	62	.246/.354/.411	.165	.280	17	7	18%	13%	121	+3.2	.249/.332/.393	.144	.289	15	5	18%	10%	108	+2.3	.253/.329/.385	.132	.300	13	3	19%	10%	100	+0.9
●Ben Broussard 2005 · MLB	28	51→56	55→60	48→45	53	.260/.338/.455	.195	.292	21	6	19%	9%	126	+3.5	.267/.326/.461	.194	.306	22	5	20%	7%	123	+3.3	.270/.321/.455	.185	.309	23	3	20%	6%	113	+1.8
●Matt Joyce 2013 · MLB	28	51→56	54→60	48→50	56	.259/.347/.452	.193	.304	21	9	22%	11%	129	+3.7	.244/.335/.410	.166	.289	18	7	21%	12%	114	+2.7	.231/.347/.434	.202	.261	25	3	21%	15%	118	+1.9
✕Ben Grieve 2005 · MLB	29	51→57	50→55	46→45	59	.251/.355/.413	.162	.303	17	5	22%	13%	123	+3.3	.240/.323/.397	.157	.292	17	4	23%	11%	105	+2.1	.226/.304/.379	.153	.270	18	0	23%	10%	89	+0.6
✕Jake Fraley 2023 · MLB	28	47→46	53→55	51→55	56	.241/.340/.412	.171	.300	22	16	26%	12%	117	+2.9	.252/.329/.404	.152	.299	17	23	21%	10%	109	+2.4	.253/.327/.391	.138	.299	15	27	19%	9%	101	+1.0
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	45→54	53→55	48→45	53	.232/.318/.404	.172	.266	20	9	22%	10%	105	+2.1	.241/.339/.409	.168	.280	20	5	21%	12%	115	+2.8	.244/.359/.388	.144	.287	17	2	20%	14%	115	+1.9
●Michael Saunders 2015 · MLB	28	50→52	52→55	51→55	52	.252/.327/.427	.175	.309	18	15	24%	10%	115	+2.7	.239/.316/.405	.166	.305	18	6	26%	10%	105	+2.1	.215/.287/.378	.162	.268	19	2	26%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Brennan Boesch 2013 · MLB	28	51→55	49→55	46→50	47	.256/.312/.407	.151	.297	17	8	20%	7%	103	+1.9	.245/.290/.397	.152	.298	17	9	23%	6%	92	+1.2	.235/.271/.374	.139	.293	16	9	25%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Larry Bigbie 2006 · MLB	28	54→56	47→50	48→50	50	.264/.325/.404	.140	.319	15	10	22%	8%	107	+2.2	.247/.309/.366	.119	.318	11	9	24%	8%	91	+1.1	.251/.312/.354	.103	.331	7	7	25%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Gregory Polanco 2020 · MLB	28	48→55	55→60	53→55	52	.246/.319/.438	.192	.285	22	12	22%	9%	114	+2.7	.221/.292/.402	.181	.278	23	16	28%	9%	94	+1.3	.201/.272/.373	.171	.249	24	19	29%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Gaby Sanchez 2012 · MLB	28	51→54	51→55	49→45	56	.258/.335/.421	.162	.279	19	5	15%	10%	116	+2.8	.245/.327/.397	.152	.276	16	4	17%	10%	107	+2.2	.233/.317/.379	.146	.266	15	3	18%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Alex Dickerson 2019 · MLB	29	51→54	51→55	50→45	48	.259/.316/.424	.165	.283	18	8	16%	6%	109	+2.4	.262/.330/.452	.190	.306	22	5	21%	8%	122	+3.3	.259/.331/.461	.202	.298	24	1	22%	8%	119	+1.5
✕John Bowker 2011 · MLB	28	49→54	53→55	45	48	.252/.312/.430	.178	.289	21	6	21%	7%	109	+2.4	.254/.297/.412	.158	.298	18	5	21%	6%	98	+1.6	.237/.264/.364	.127	.281	15	2	22%	3%	67	-0.4
●Domonic Brown 2015 · MLB	27	50→55	50→55	47→55	49	.251/.304/.407	.156	.281	18	8	18%	7%	99	+1.7	.227/.274/.337	.110	.274	11	10	21%	6%	68	-0.5	.230/.273/.367	.138	.270	17	2	22%	5%	75	-0.0
●Jason Kubel 2009 · MLB	27	52→57	53→60	50→40	51	.263/.323/.442	.179	.293	20	5	18%	8%	116	+2.8	.273/.341/.475	.202	.307	24	2	19%	9%	133	+4.0	.272/.342/.471	.199	.308	25	1	20%	9%	123	+2.9
✕Mike Carp 2014 · MLB	28	50→55	53→55	43→40	47	.257/.320/.435	.178	.316	21	5	25%	8%	114	+2.7	.221/.299/.348	.127	.287	12	7	26%	9%	83	+0.6	.172/.277/.237	.064	.230	2	0	23%	10%	43	-0.6
●Andrew Benintendi 2022 · MLB	28	51→61	49→55	43→50	51	.256/.323/.412	.155	.302	16	10	21%	8%	108	+2.3	.270/.334/.392	.122	.312	11	10	16%	9%	108	+2.3	.262/.329/.376	.114	.301	10	9	16%	9%	98	+1.5
●Kole Calhoun 2015 · MLB	27	53→56	52→60	49→50	49	.268/.325/.443	.174	.310	18	10	20%	8%	118	+3.0	.262/.326/.427	.165	.309	19	5	21%	8%	114	+2.7	.253/.328/.408	.155	.299	18	3	21%	9%	106	+2.4
✕DJ Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	42→48	55→60	42→50	55	.224/.325/.407	.183	.271	23	5	26%	12%	109	+2.4	.224/.328/.412	.188	.280	25	6	28%	11%	112	+2.6	.212/.325/.401	.189	.259	26	6	28%	12%	104	+0.9
●David Murphy 2010 · MLB	28	52→60	50→55	49→50	50	.261/.319/.425	.164	.300	17	10	19%	8%	110	+2.4	.273/.338/.420	.147	.309	16	14	16%	9%	117	+2.9	.281/.349/.418	.137	.313	14	15	14%	9%	114	+2.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)