Pavin Smith — OGILVIE

Pavin Smith1B Reno Aces

Age 30 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 4.087 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION271 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 84103vR 110

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP283

ISO198

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

728.7%

xAVG

260.232

POWER60

Barrel%

7011.2

Avg EV

5689.5

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE60

Chase%

9020.2%

SPEED40

Sprint

1024.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 446 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

399

—

wRC+

136

▶▶R

wOBA

307

369

▶▶R

ISO

122

221

▶▶R

BABIP

268

351

▶▶R

27.7%

27.6%

—

BB%

19.1%

12.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.087 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.2M		$0.2M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	504	439	112	25	1	11	57	65	4	3	2	255	346	392	738	137	275	13	11	332	111	+6	-0	—	—	+11	1.7
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	72	64	16	1	0	0	8	9	0	1	0	250	333	266	599	16	291	12	11	284	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	507	440	128	29	6	12	59	61	0	2	1	291	374	466	840	175	310	12	12	368	135	+21	+0	—	—	+11	3.3
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	328	108	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	133	27	4	11	42	106	4	1	0	267	329	404	733	137	319	19	8	328	108	+5	+0	-5	-10	+12	0.2
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	277	245	54	9	0	9	28	67	1	1	0	220	303	367	670	147	262	24	10	300	89	-4	+0	-2	-4	+6	-0.3
2022	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	17	17	7	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	412	412	647	1.059	235	400	6	0	464	200	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2022	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	65	48	14	3	1	1	15	13	1	1	0	292	469	458	927	167	371	20	23	414	166	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	228	191	36	5	0	7	35	45	1	1	1	188	316	325	640	136	209	20	15	298	88	-3	-0	-5	-6	+5	-1.0
2023	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	290	239	76	14	2	9	46	47	2	2	0	318	432	506	938	188	360	16	16	413	165	+23	+0	—	—	+6	3.0
2024	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	158	137	37	11	0	9	18	31	0	1	0	270	355	547	902	277	280	20	11	385	147	+9	+0	-2	-5	+3	0.6
2024	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	289	236	75	15	2	13	49	49	1	1	1	318	437	564	1.001	246	350	17	17	433	179	+27	-0	—	—	+6	3.4
2025	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	288	244	63	17	1	8	41	92	0	2	2	258	364	434	798	176	377	32	14	355	126	+9	-0	-3	-5	+6	0.7
2025	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	17	15	4	3	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	267	353	467	820	200	444	35	12	362	131	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1540	1352	333	69	6	45	169	349	6	7	3	246	332	406	738	160	297	23	11	329	109	+16	+0	-17	-30	+33	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	504	457	103	20	1	10	39	85	4	3	2	225	292	339	631	114	251	17	8	279	75	-15	-0	—	—	+11	-0.4
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	507	460	115	23	6	10	40	73	0	2	1	250	310	391	701	141	267	14	8	305	93	-4	+0	—	—	+11	0.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	321	104	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	131	25	3	12	42	106	4	1	0	263	325	398	723	135	319	19	8	319	102	+1	+0	-5	-10	+12	-0.2
2022	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	277	245	54	8	0	10	28	67	1	1	0	220	303	376	678	155	262	24	10	295	86	-5	+0	-2	-4	+6	-0.4
2022	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	17	17	6	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	353	353	588	941	235	343	6	0	375	140	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	228	192	36	5	0	7	35	45	1	1	1	188	316	323	639	135	209	20	15	296	86	-4	-0	-5	-6	+5	-1.0
2023	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	290	257	65	11	1	7	28	64	2	2	0	253	331	385	716	132	305	22	10	322	104	+1	+0	—	—	+6	0.8
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	158	137	37	10	0	10	18	31	0	1	0	270	355	562	917	292	280	20	11	381	144	+8	+0	-2	-5	+3	0.6
2024	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	289	252	61	12	2	9	33	66	1	1	1	242	332	413	745	171	278	23	11	324	105	+2	-0	—	—	+6	0.8
2025	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	288	245	62	16	1	8	41	92	0	2	2	253	360	424	785	171	377	32	14	346	120	+7	-0	-3	-5	+6	0.5
2025	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	17	16	3	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	188	235	312	548	125	353	47	6	249	55	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	576	523	117	23	1	11	45	97	4	4	2	224	290	335	625	111	253	17	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	576	503	128	26	1	11	65	74	4	4	2	254	344	376	720	121	277	13	11	326	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	507	460	115	23	6	10	40	73	0	2	1	250	310	391	701	141	273	14	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	—	507	440	128	29	6	12	59	61	0	2	1	291	374	466	840	175	310	12	12	368	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	321	104	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	328	104	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	131	25	3	12	42	106	4	1	0	263	325	398	723	135	312	19	8	319	102	+1	+0	-5	-10	+12	-0.2
2021	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	133	27	4	11	42	106	4	1	0	267	329	404	733	137	319	19	8	328	102	+1	+0	-5	-10	+12	-0.2
2022	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	359	319	73	11	0	13	34	83	2	2	0	229	307	386	693	157	264	23	9	300	89	-5	+0	-2	-4	+8	-0.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	359	310	75	13	1	11	43	81	2	2	0	242	338	397	735	155	288	23	12	328	89	-5	+0	-2	-4	+8	-0.2
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	518	449	101	16	1	14	63	109	3	3	1	225	324	359	683	134	264	21	12	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	518	430	112	19	2	16	81	92	3	3	1	260	381	426	806	165	295	18	16	362	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	447	389	98	22	2	19	51	97	1	2	1	252	340	465	805	213	283	22	11	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	447	373	112	26	2	22	67	80	1	2	1	300	408	558	966	257	325	18	15	416	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	305	261	65	18	1	8	42	100	0	2	2	249	353	418	771	169	368	33	14	340	116	+6	-0	-3	-5	+7	0.4
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	305	259	67	20	1	8	43	98	0	2	2	259	363	436	799	178	381	32	14	355	116	+6	-0	-3	-5	+7	0.4
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	576	522	117	23	1	11	45	97	4	4	2	224	290	335	625	111	251	17	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	507	462	115	23	6	10	40	73	0	2	1	249	310	390	700	141	267	14	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	39	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	256	357	385	742	128	300	18	11	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	494	131	25	3	12	42	106	4	1	0	265	325	401	726	136	319	19	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	359	320	73	11	0	13	34	83	2	2	0	228	307	384	691	156	266	23	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	518	447	101	16	1	14	63	109	3	3	1	226	324	360	684	134	263	21	12	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	447	392	98	22	2	19	51	97	1	2	1	250	340	462	802	212	279	22	11	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	305	260	65	18	1	8	42	100	0	2	2	250	353	419	772	169	375	33	14	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	518	447	101	16	1	14	63	109	3	3	1	226	324	360	684	134	263	21	12	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	447	392	98	22	2	19	51	97	1	2	1	250	340	462	802	212	279	22	11	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	305	260	65	18	1	8	42	100	0	2	2	250	353	419	772	169	375	33	14	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	ARI	—	271	235	51	6	1	7	33	72	0	2	0	217	313	340	654	123	277	27	12	289	82	-6	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	ARI	—	90	79	12	1	0	1	10	18	0	1	0	152	247	203	450	51	180	20	11	215	82	-2	+0	+0	-5	+2	-0.5
YTD	30	AAA RAW	ARI	—	181	146	44	6	1	7	33	42	0	1	0	301	430	500	930	199	374	23	18	409	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	30	MLB RAW	ARI	—	90	79	12	1	0	1	10	18	0	1	0	152	247	203	450	51	180	20	11	215	32	-7	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.7
ROS	30	AAA MLE	ARI	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		277	22	11	321	103	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		283	22	11	321	103	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	30	MLB A+C	ARI	—	99	87	13	1	0	1	11	20	0	1	0	149	245	195	440	46	179	20	11	225	83	-2	+0	-0	-2	+2	-0.2
TOT	30	AAA MLE	ARI	—	280	243	52	6	1	7	34	74	0	2	0	214	310	333	644	119	273	26	12	290	83	-6	+0	-0	-5	+6	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	389	336	77	14	1	13	50	104	0	3	1	229	329	393	722	164	291	27	13	325	106	+3	+0	-3	-7	+8	0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	370	320	72	13	1	12	47	100	0	2	0	225	324	384	709	159	285	27	13	319	102	+1	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	389	336	77	15	1	12	50	104	0	3	1	229	329	387	716	158	296	27	13	325	106	+3	+0	-3	-7	+8	0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	370	320	72	14	1	11	47	100	0	2	0	225	324	378	702	153	291	27	13	319	102	+1	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2308	2016	483	98	8	68	267	555	6	12	4	240	330	397	727	158	295	24	12	327	98	+20	+1	-24	-44	+50	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	136	28	2	19	75	156	2	3	1	239	330	396	726	157	295	24	12	327	98	+6	+0	-7	-12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4069	3600	860	165	17	113	420	879	14	22	8	239	321	388	709	149	283	22	10	314	98	+20	+1	-24	-44	+50	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	137	26	3	18	67	140	2	4	1	238	319	388	707	150	282	22	10	314	98	+6	+0	-7	-12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	3.7	2,474	75	13	238	326	397	-44	-35	3.6	4.0
/162	664	20	3	-11.9	-9.5	1.0	pk7: 4
#1Nolan Reimoldlast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,556 PA	2.3	1,556	56	18	246	323	422	-17	-27	1.6	1.9
/162	664	24	8	-7.1	-11.6	0.7	pk7: 2
#2Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	2.7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
/162	664	24	2	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2
#3Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#4Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	2.5	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
/162	664	26	2	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Ben Franciscolast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,771 PA	2.7	1,771	50	30	253	323	418	-19	-29	1.7	1.7
/162	664	19	11	-7.1	-10.9	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ben Gamellast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,305 PA	3.5	2,305	41	22	253	335	383	-25	-45	0.2	0.5
/162	664	12	6	-7.1	-13.0	0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pavin Smith (OGILVIE)	30	50	60	40	60	222/323/388	166	277	4	1	26%	13%	103	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ricky Ledee 2004 · MLB	30	47	54→60	42→50	57	241/330/434	192	275	21	4	21%	12%	116	+2.5	247/326/422	175	291	19	6	21%	10%	112	+2.2	237/306/382	145	288	17	3	23%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Ji Man Choi 2021 · MLB	30	49→50	54→55	43→45	58	250/347/436	187	301	20	4	23%	12%	122	+3.0	232/334/406	174	306	19	3	28%	13%	111	+2.1	218/325/391	172	289	20	0	29%	13%	101	+0.7
✕Daniel Vogelbach 2023 · MLB	30	47→51	54→60	46→40	64	243/359/426	183	292	22	2	24%	15%	124	+3.1	239/338/410	171	293	21	4	24%	13%	114	+2.3	238/343/411	173	290	25	0	25%	13%	112	+1.2
●Dan Johnson 2010 · MLB	30	48→53	54→55	43→30	59	250/341/429	179	274	22	3	18%	12%	118	+2.7	228/318/405	177	252	23	3	20%	11%	105	+1.7	220/313/394	175	237	24	1	19%	11%	101	+1.3
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	48→54	50→60	40→50	58	243/338/402	159	286	17	6	21%	12%	112	+2.2	233/338/410	177	278	20	4	22%	13%	114	+2.3	239/353/454	216	268	26	3	21%	15%	124	+1.9
✕Jake Lamb 2020 · MLB	29	42→52	52→60	44→45	57	217/323/387	169	266	20	5	26%	12%	103	+1.5	215/308/379	164	277	20	4	28%	11%	95	+1.0	221/311/373	152	291	19	1	29%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Michael Saunders 2017 · MLB	30	50→52	55	41→55	51	251/332/448	197	318	22	4	27%	10%	120	+2.8	216/279/357	141	273	14	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2	189/244/297	107	239	9	3	24%	6%	47	-1.1
●Jason Kubel 2012 · MLB	30	52→57	54→60	41→40	52	267/334/447	180	306	21	2	20%	9%	120	+2.8	243/316/418	175	311	21	3	27%	10%	107	+1.8	232/312/406	174	305	21	1	29%	10%	95	+0.5
✕Terrmel Sledge 2007 · MLB	30	49→52	55	47→45	53	253/325/439	186	287	22	7	21%	10%	114	+2.4	238/318/402	164	290	19	8	24%	10%	104	+1.6	220/315/367	147	270	18	4	24%	11%	90	+0.3
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	42	54→50	42→30	53	224/311/403	179	269	22	3	25%	11%	102	+1.5	220/310/363	143	297	17	4	29%	11%	92	+0.7	207/305/328	122	288	15	2	31%	12%	81	-0.0
✕Ike Davis 2015 · MLB	28	45→55	53→60	37→40	60	230/333/402	172	269	20	3	22%	13%	109	+2.0	220/296/352	132	282	14	3	25%	10%	84	+0.2	210/278/324	113	272	11	0	25%	9%	69	-0.4
✕DJ Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→48	53→55	42→50	56	217/324/392	175	268	22	4	27%	12%	105	+1.7	221/325/401	180	278	24	6	28%	11%	107	+1.9	207/321/383	176	258	24	6	28%	12%	99	+0.6
✕Luis Valbuena 2016 · MLB	30	44→54	56→60	40→50	56	235/324/432	198	259	24	3	20%	11%	114	+2.3	230/314/427	197	274	25	3	25%	11%	109	+2.0	218/303/405	188	266	25	2	28%	11%	95	+0.6
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2015 · MLB	31	45→50	56→55	44→30	51	240/317/428	188	278	24	5	23%	9%	109	+2.0	199/280/312	113	243	12	5	22%	10%	70	-0.9	159/250/243	84	191	9	0	22%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Brad Miller 2020 · MLB	30	45→55	56→60	45→50	49	234/312/427	192	298	24	6	29%	10%	107	+1.9	234/319/432	198	296	26	7	29%	11%	111	+2.1	220/311/401	181	276	25	6	29%	11%	98	+0.5
✕Armando Rios 2002 · MLB	30	50	56→55	47→45	55	258/333/461	203	288	22	7	19%	10%	122	+3.0	246/305/374	128	282	13	6	17%	8%	93	+0.8	244/293/317	73	284	5	2	15%	6%	71	-0.2
●Lucas Duda 2015 · MLB	29	47→55	56→65	39→30	55	245/342/437	192	294	24	3	25%	12%	121	+2.9	244/341/476	232	285	29	2	25%	11%	129	+3.4	233/335/485	252	266	32	0	26%	12%	122	+2.0
✕George Kottaras 2013 · MLB	30	46→53	55	44→30	59	238/336/430	192	278	23	4	23%	13%	117	+2.6	220/323/398	178	304	23	5	32%	13%	105	+1.7	187/296/343	156	273	23	1	38%	13%	80	-0.0
●Connor Joe 2022 · MLB	29	48→51	52→50	45	55	246/336/415	169	290	20	4	22%	11%	114	+2.3	239/331/387	148	294	14	6	22%	11%	105	+1.7	235/331/379	145	291	12	5	22%	11%	102	+1.1
✕Travis Shaw 2021 · MLB	31	41→51	55→60	45	55	221/318/401	180	266	24	5	26%	12%	104	+1.6	217/296/378	161	273	20	5	27%	9%	91	+0.7	200/291/369	169	240	22	0	27%	10%	85	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps