Pavin Smith — OGILVIE

Pavin Smith1B Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 30 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 4.087 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 71 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 84117vR 130

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .322 / .369

PA71

HR2

K%25

BB%13

BABIP283

ISO144

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

728.7%

xwOBA

700.331

POWER60

Barrel%

7011.2

Avg EV

5589.5

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE60

Chase%

9020.2%

SPEED40

Sprint

1024.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 446 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

399

—

wRC+

141

▶▶R

wOBA

307

369

▶▶R

ISO

122

221

▶▶R

BABIP

268

351

▶▶R

27.7%

27.6%

—

BB%

19.1%

12.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.087 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.9M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$0.7M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	576	523	119	22	1	11	45	94	4	4	2	228	294	337	630	109	256	16	8	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	576	503	128	26	1	11	65	74	4	4	2	254	344	376	720	121	277	13	11	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	507	460	115	21	7	12	40	75	0	2	1	250	310	404	714	154	271	15	8	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	507	440	128	29	6	12	59	61	0	2	1	291	374	466	840	175	310	12	12	368	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	321	104	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	328	109	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.1
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	131	26	4	11	42	106	4	1	0	263	325	398	723	135	314	19	8	318	101	+1	+0	-5	-10	+15	0.1
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	133	27	4	11	42	106	4	1	0	267	329	404	733	137	319	19	8	328	109	+6	+0	-5	-10	+15	0.6
2022	26	MLB	3 teams	—	359	319	73	12	0	12	34	83	2	2	0	229	307	379	686	150	268	23	9	294	83	-7	+0	-2	-4	+10	-0.2
2022	26	MLB	3 teams	—	359	310	75	13	1	11	43	81	2	2	0	242	338	397	735	155	288	23	12	328	110	+4	+0	-2	-4	+10	0.9
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	518	451	98	15	1	14	61	112	3	3	1	217	315	348	663	131	256	22	12	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	518	430	112	19	2	16	81	92	3	3	1	260	381	426	806	165	295	18	16	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	447	389	93	22	2	17	51	99	1	2	1	239	329	437	766	198	272	22	11	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	447	373	112	26	2	22	67	80	1	2	1	300	408	558	966	257	325	18	15	416	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	—	305	260	64	18	1	8	43	99	0	2	2	246	353	415	769	169	361	32	14	337	116	+6	-0	-3	-5	+9	0.6
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	—	305	259	67	20	1	8	43	98	0	2	2	259	363	436	799	178	381	32	14	355	130	+10	-0	-3	-5	+9	1.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	MLB	ARI	—	107	95	17	2	0	1	11	23	0	1	0	179	264	232	496	53	222	21	10	226	31	-8	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.7
YTD	30	MLB	ARI	—	107	95	18	2	0	1	11	22	0	1	0	189	274	242	516	53	233	21	10	242	43	-7	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.6
ROS	30	MLB	ARI	100%	71	62	14	3	0	2	9	18	0	1	0	225	322	369	691	144	291	25	13	330	110	+1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.2
ROS	30	MLB	ARI	100%	71	62	14	3	0	2	9	18	0	1	0	226	324	371	695	145	294	25	13	331	112	+1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.2
FULL	30	MLB	ARI	—	178	157	31	5	0	3	20	41	0	2	0	197	288	287	575	89	246	23	11	268	63	-7	+0	-0	-3	+5	-0.5
TOT	30	MLB	ARI	—	178	157	31	5	0	3	20	41	0	2	0	197	288	286	574	89	245	23	11	267	63	-8	+0	-0	-3	+5	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	ARI	100%	389	336	78	15	1	12	49	99	1	3	1	232	332	390	721	158	294	25	13	328	109	+4	+0	-3	-7	+11	0.5
2028	32	MLB	ARI	100%	370	320	73	14	1	11	46	96	1	2	1	228	327	381	708	153	288	26	12	321	104	+2	+0	-4	-7	+10	0.2
2027	31	MLB	ARI	100%	389	336	81	16	1	13	49	99	1	3	1	241	339	411	750	170	296	25	13	329	110	+5	+0	-3	-7	+11	0.6
2028	32	MLB	ARI	100%	370	320	75	14	1	12	46	96	1	2	1	234	332	397	729	162	291	26	12	323	105	+2	+0	-4	-7	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2370	2070	503	102	8	72	273	562	8	13	5	243	333	404	738	161	297	24	12	328	109	+25	+1	-24	-45	+67	2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	138	28	2	20	75	154	2	4	1	243	333	405	738	162	296	24	12	328	109	+7	+0	-7	-12	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	4131	3655	868	168	19	111	425	889	16	23	9	237	320	385	704	147	282	22	10	311	97	-16	+1	-24	-64	+117	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	136	26	3	17	67	140	3	4	1	237	319	381	700	144	281	22	10	311	97	-3	+0	-4	-10	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	504	439	112	25	1	11	57	65	4	3	2	255	346	392	738	137	275	13	11	332	112	+7	-0	—	—	+14	2.1
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	72	64	16	1	0	0	8	9	0	1	0	250	333	266	599	16	291	12	11	284	75	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	507	440	128	29	6	12	59	61	0	2	1	291	374	466	840	175	310	12	12	368	139	+23	+0	—	—	+14	3.8
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	270	357	405	763	135	300	18	11	328	109	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.1
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	545	498	133	27	4	11	42	106	4	1	0	267	329	404	733	137	319	19	8	328	109	+6	+0	-5	-10	+15	0.6
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	277	245	54	9	0	9	28	67	1	1	0	220	303	367	670	147	262	24	10	300	88	-4	+0	-2	-4	+8	-0.2
2022	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	17	17	7	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	412	412	647	1.059	235	400	6	0	464	213	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2022	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	65	48	14	3	1	1	15	13	1	1	0	292	469	458	927	167	371	20	23	414	175	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	228	191	36	5	0	7	35	45	1	1	1	188	316	325	640	136	209	20	15	298	86	-4	-0	-5	-6	+6	-0.8
2023	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	290	239	76	14	2	9	46	47	2	2	0	318	432	506	938	188	360	16	16	413	174	+24	+0	—	—	+8	3.3
2024	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	158	137	37	11	0	9	18	31	0	1	0	270	355	547	902	277	280	20	11	385	153	+9	+0	-2	-5	+4	0.8
2024	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	289	236	75	15	2	13	49	49	1	1	1	318	437	564	1.001	246	350	17	17	433	190	+29	-0	—	—	+8	3.8
2025	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	288	244	63	17	1	8	41	92	0	2	2	258	364	434	798	176	377	32	14	355	130	+10	-0	-3	-5	+8	0.9
2025	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	17	15	4	3	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	267	353	467	820	200	444	35	12	362	135	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1540	1352	333	69	6	45	169	349	6	7	3	246	332	406	738	160	297	23	11	329	110	+18	+0	-17	-30	+44	1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Stephen Piscottylast yr '22 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,802 PA	8	2,802	93	23	255	324	430	-30	-35	5.0	5.3
	/162	664	22	5	255	324	430	-7.1	-8.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#2Robert Ficklast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,585 PA	8	2,585	63	4	258	327	400	-24	-19	4.0	4.6
	/162	664	16	1	258	327	400	-6.3	-4.8	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	2,518	75	14	239	326	398	-45	-35	3.8	4.2
	/162	664	20	4	239	326	398	-11.9	-9.3	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
	/162	664	24	2	234	338	423	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2
#4Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	8	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
#5Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	/162	664	26	2	237	329	420	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Ben Franciscolast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,771 PA	7	1,771	50	30	253	323	418	-19	-29	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	19	11	253	323	418	-7.1	-10.9	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pavin Smith (OGILVIE)	30	50	60	40	60	197/288/286	89	245	3	2	23%	11%	63	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	48→53	50→60	40→50	58	242/337/405	163	284	18	6	21%	12%	113	+2.6	232/337/407	175	277	20	4	22%	13%	115	+2.7	238/352/447	209	270	25	3	21%	15%	125	+2.2
✕Ji Man Choi 2021 · MLB	30	49→50	54→55	43→45	58	249/347/441	192	298	21	4	23%	12%	126	+3.5	233/334/411	178	306	20	3	28%	13%	114	+2.7	219/326/397	177	290	21	0	29%	13%	104	+1.0
●Jason Kubel 2012 · MLB	30	52→57	54→60	41→40	52	267/333/446	180	306	21	2	20%	9%	122	+3.3	243/316/417	174	312	20	3	27%	10%	108	+2.3	232/312/405	172	306	20	1	29%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Ricky Ledee 2004 · MLB	30	47	54→60	42→50	57	241/330/434	192	275	21	4	21%	12%	118	+3.0	247/326/422	175	291	19	6	21%	10%	113	+2.6	237/306/382	145	288	17	3	23%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	43	55→50	42→30	53	228/314/412	184	273	23	3	25%	11%	105	+2.1	227/315/379	152	301	18	4	29%	11%	97	+1.5	216/313/352	135	294	17	2	30%	12%	88	+0.5
✕George Kottaras 2013 · MLB	30	46→53	55	44→30	59	240/338/433	193	279	23	4	23%	13%	121	+3.2	222/324/406	184	308	24	5	33%	13%	108	+2.3	194/300/365	171	282	26	1	38%	13%	84	+0.2
✕Jake Lamb 2020 · MLB	29	42→52	51→60	44→45	57	216/322/381	165	267	18	5	26%	12%	102	+1.8	214/306/377	163	276	19	4	28%	10%	94	+1.3	223/310/383	161	291	20	1	29%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Daniel Vogelbach 2023 · MLB	30	47→53	55→60	46→40	64	243/359/431	188	290	23	2	24%	15%	129	+3.7	237/336/408	171	290	21	4	24%	13%	114	+2.7	233/339/405	172	282	25	0	25%	13%	111	+1.3
✕DJ Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→47	55→60	42→50	56	218/324/402	184	266	23	4	27%	12%	108	+2.3	225/328/415	190	281	26	6	28%	11%	113	+2.6	211/325/400	189	260	26	6	29%	12%	106	+1.0
✕Paul McAnulty 2011 · MLB	30	42→50	55→60	38→40	47	228/290/411	183	261	24	2	24%	8%	95	+1.4	234/296/416	182	277	23	4	24%	8%	99	+1.7	228/296/409	181	269	23	3	24%	8%	96	+1.2
✕Luis Valbuena 2016 · MLB	30	44→54	55→60	40→50	56	231/321/419	188	257	23	3	20%	11%	110	+2.4	229/314/423	194	273	25	3	25%	11%	108	+2.3	219/304/409	191	267	25	2	28%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Brad Miller 2019 · MLB	29	45→55	52→60	46→50	51	229/312/404	175	297	20	6	29%	11%	102	+1.9	239/323/451	212	301	27	6	29%	11%	119	+3.1	231/323/465	234	278	32	5	28%	11%	120	+1.5
✕Michael Saunders 2017 · MLB	30	49→52	55	41→55	51	250/332/448	198	318	22	4	28%	10%	122	+3.3	215/278/357	142	272	15	5	26%	8%	76	+0.0	187/241/297	109	237	10	3	25%	6%	39	-1.1
●Garrett Jones 2012 · MLB	31	49→53	54→60	47→50	51	252/318/438	185	287	21	10	20%	9%	114	+2.7	254/311/454	200	292	23	4	21%	8%	115	+2.8	254/310/454	200	291	23	2	21%	7%	111	+2.1
✕Eric Munson 2008 · MLB	30	44→43	51→60	43→40	50	229/295/391	161	254	20	3	19%	8%	92	+1.2	214/290/354	140	256	16	3	22%	9%	81	+0.4	197/283/334	137	237	16	0	24%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Terrmel Sledge 2007 · MLB	30	49→52	55	47→45	53	253/324/438	186	287	22	7	21%	10%	116	+2.8	238/316/401	163	290	19	8	24%	10%	103	+1.9	220/315/367	147	270	18	4	24%	11%	89	+0.4
✕Colin Moran 2022 · MLB	29	51→57	51→55	45→30	49	257/324/418	161	315	20	3	25%	9%	111	+2.5	225/295/356	131	292	16	4	27%	9%	83	+0.6	203/273/312	109	269	13	0	28%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Ike Davis 2015 · MLB	28	44→54	52→60	37→40	60	227/330/394	167	266	20	3	22%	13%	108	+2.3	221/297/355	134	283	14	3	25%	10%	83	+0.6	213/281/332	119	274	12	0	25%	9%	69	-0.2
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2013 · MLB	29	46→50	52→60	43→30	51	236/312/403	166	284	21	3	24%	10%	102	+1.9	223/302/380	157	265	19	4	23%	10%	92	+1.2	190/283/317	127	221	16	0	22%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Mark Reynolds 2014 · MLB	30	41→51	56→65	41→50	52	218/314/405	187	277	25	4	30%	11%	105	+2.1	223/309/398	175	282	23	5	28%	10%	100	+1.7	232/318/389	157	302	19	2	28%	11%	99	+1.3