Pavin Smith

1B Reno Aces
Age 31 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 4.802 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
AAA40-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202428AAAARI289.318/.437/.564131107—.245/.332/.403
202428MLBARI158.270/.355/.547911440.6
202529MLBARI288.258/.364/.434821200.5
202630AAAARI181.301/.430/.50071107—.255/.346/.395
202630MLBARI122.183/.264/.2943258-0.9
2027PROJ45% MLB31MLBARI108.238/.330/.418411080.2
2028PROJ32MLBARI222.231/.322/.40271102-0.3
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.802First FA2029
2027Arb-2$1M2028Arb-3$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA71
Barrel%69
Bat Spd64
Avg EV57
Speed10
Form.242/.322/.434 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .233/.323/.412
CompsJi Man Choi (age 31) · Kila Ka'aihue (age 31) · Garrett Jones (age 31)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 90108vR 115
AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .330 / .418
PA108
HR4
K%25
BB%12
BABIP291
ISO202
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +2.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+2BATRUN: -0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -4.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
300.235
POWER60
Barrel%
6911.0
Avg EV
5789.6
Bat Spd
6472.8
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
1025.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%24%▲21% over 33 PA (60d) · proj 25%
BB%11%▼6% over 33 PA (60d) · proj 12%
ISO.192▲.258 over 31 AB (60d) · proj .180
BABIP.283·.318 over 22 BIP (60d) · proj .282
SLASH.242/.322/.434▲proj .233/.323/.412
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 446 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
47
399
—
wRC+
94
136
▶▶R
wOBA
307
369
▶▶R
ISO
122
221
▶▶R
BABIP
268
351
▶▶R
K%
27.7%
27.6%
—
BB%
19.1%
12.3%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2020
Service   4.802 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$1M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Arb-3$1M———
Totals $0.0M $-0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201822 A+Visalia Rawhide — 504439 11225111 57654 32 255346392738 137275 1311 332 77 — — — — — —
201822 INTLSalt River Rafters — 7264 16100 890 10 250333266599 16291 1211 284 78 — — — — — —
201923 AAJackson Generals — 507440 12829612 59610 21 291374466840 175310 1212 368 97 — — — — — —
202024 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 4437 10011 580 10 270357405763 135300 1811 328 104 +0 +0 -0 -1 +1 0.0
202125 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 545498 13327411 421064 10 267329404733 137319 198 328 102 +1 +0 -5 -10 +12 -0.2
202226 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 277245 54909 28671 10 220303367670 147262 2410 300 87 -4 +0 -2 -4 +6 -0.4
202226 AAAReno Aces — 1717 7101 010 00 4124126471.059 235400 60 464 146 — — — — — —
202226 INTLTigres del Licey — 6548 14311 15131 10 292469458927 167371 2023 414 166 — — — — — —
202327 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 228191 36507 35451 11 188316325640 136209 2015 298 88 -3 -0 -5 -6 +5 -1.0
202327 AAAReno Aces — 290239 761429 46472 20 318432506938 188360 1616 413 109 — — — — — —
202428 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 158137 371109 18310 10 270355547902 277280 2011 385 144 +8 +0 -2 -5 +3 0.6
202428 AAAReno Aces — 289236 7515213 49491 11 3184375641.001 246350 1717 433 107 — — — — — —
202529 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 288244 631718 41920 22 258364434798 176377 3214 355 120 +7 -0 -3 -5 +6 0.5
202529 AAAReno Aces — 1715 4300 260 00 267353467820 200444 3512 362 63 — — — — — —
202630 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 122109 20303 12250 20 183264294558 110207 2010 255 58 -6 +0 +0 -5 +3 -0.9
202630 AAAReno Aces — 181146 44617 33420 10 301430500930 199374 2318 409 107 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 16621461 35372648 1813746 93 242327398725 156290 2311 324 105 +10 +1 -17 -36 +36 -0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201822 A+ MLEVisalia Rawhide — 504456 10420110 40854 32 228296342638 114254 178 282 77 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLEJackson Generals — 507459 11724611 41730 21 255316405721 150272 148 312 97 — — — — — —
202024 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 4437 10011 580 10 270357405763 135300 1811 323 104 +0 +0 -0 -1 +1 0.0
202125 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 545499 13024312 411064 10 261322393714 132319 198 319 102 +1 +0 -5 -10 +12 -0.2
202226 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 277246 548010 27671 10 220299374673 154262 2410 296 87 -4 +0 -2 -4 +6 -0.4
202226 AAA MLEReno Aces — 1717 7101 010 00 4124126471.059 235358 60 384 146 — — — — — —
202327 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 228192 35407 35451 11 182311312624 130209 2015 298 88 -3 -0 -5 -6 +5 -1.0
202327 AAA MLEReno Aces — 290257 701227 28592 20 272348416765 144316 2010 330 109 — — — — — —
202428 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 158137 3710010 18310 10 270355562917 292280 2011 381 144 +8 +0 -2 -5 +3 0.6
202428 AAA MLEReno Aces — 289253 621228 32611 11 245332403735 158285 2111 327 107 — — — — — —
202529 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 288246 611518 40920 22 248353415768 167377 3214 346 120 +7 -0 -3 -5 +6 0.5
202529 AAA MLEReno Aces — 1716 3200 170 00 188235312548 125356 416 262 63 — — — — — —
202630 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 122109 20303 12250 20 183264294558 110207 2010 254 58 -6 +0 +0 -5 +3 -0.9
202630 AAA MLEReno Aces — 181157 40515 22500 10 255346395741 140330 2812 327 107 — — — — — —
201822 A+ MLE2 teams — 576522 11923112 46974 42 228295345640 117257 178 282 77 — — — — — —
201822 A+ RAW2 teams — 576503 12826111 65744 42 254344376720 121277 1311 326 77 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLEJackson Generals — 507459 11724611 41730 21 255316405721 150277 148 312 97 — — — — — —
201923 AA RAWJackson Generals — 507440 12829612 59610 21 291374466840 175310 1212 368 97 — — — — — —
202024 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 4437 10011 580 10 270357405763 135300 1811 323 104 +0 +0 -0 -1 +1 0.0
202024 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 4437 10011 580 10 270357405763 135300 1811 328 104 +0 +0 -0 -1 +1 0.0
202125 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 545499 13024312 411064 10 261322393714 132309 198 319 102 +1 +0 -5 -10 +12 -0.2
202125 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 545498 13327411 421064 10 267329404733 137319 198 328 102 +1 +0 -5 -10 +12 -0.2
202226 MLB MLE3 teams — 359320 7311013 33832 20 228304384689 156263 239 301 90 -4 +0 -2 -4 +8 -0.2
202226 MLB RAW3 teams — 359310 7513111 43812 20 242338397735 155288 2312 328 90 -4 +0 -2 -4 +8 -0.2
202327 AAA MLE2 teams — 518449 10516214 631043 31 234332372704 138272 2012 316 100 — — — — — —
202327 AAA RAW2 teams — 518430 11219216 81923 31 260381426806 165295 1816 362 100 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLE2 teams — 447390 9922218 50921 21 254340459799 205283 2111 346 120 — — — — — —
202428 AAA RAW2 teams — 447373 11226222 67801 21 300408558966 257325 1815 416 120 — — — — — —
202529 MLB MLE2 teams — 305262 641718 41990 22 244347408755 164357 3213 341 117 +6 -0 -3 -5 +7 0.4
202529 MLB RAW2 teams — 305259 672018 43980 22 259363436799 178381 3214 355 117 +6 -0 -3 -5 +7 0.4
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 303266 60818 34750 30 226313353667 128280 2511 298 88 — — — — — —
202630 AAA RAW2 teams — 303255 649110 45670 30 251363412775 161298 2215 347 88 — — — — — —
201822 A+ MLE2 teams — 576521 11923112 46974 42 228295345641 117254 178 282 77 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLEJackson Generals — 507461 11724611 41730 21 254316403719 150272 148 312 97 — — — — — —
202024 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 4439 10011 580 10 256357385742 128300 1811 323 104 — — — — — —
202125 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 545495 13024312 411064 10 263322396718 133319 198 319 102 — — — — — —
202226 MLB MLE3 teams — 359321 7311013 33832 20 227304383687 156267 239 301 90 — — — — — —
202327 AAA MLE2 teams — 518447 10516214 631043 31 235332374706 139269 2012 316 100 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLE2 teams — 447393 9922218 50921 21 252340455796 204283 2111 346 120 — — — — — —
202529 MLB MLE2 teams — 305261 641718 41990 22 245347410756 165376 3213 341 117 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 303266 60818 34750 30 226313353667 128281 2511 298 88 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202428 AAA MLE2 teams — 447393 9922218 50921 21 252340455796 204283 2111 346 120 — — — — — —
202529 MLB MLE2 teams — 305261 641718 41990 22 245347410756 165376 3213 341 117 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 303266 60818 34750 30 226313353667 128281 2511 298 88 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202731 MLB MLEARI 45% 352306 7214113 42891 31 233326412738 179282 2512 328 108 +3 +0 -0 -6 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202731 MLB CTXARI 45% 10894 23514 13270 10 238330418748 180291 2512 332 108 +1 +0 -0 -2 +2 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202832 MLB MLEARI 100% 222194 44818 26570 11 226318396715 171275 2612 319 102 +1 -0 -4 -4 +5 -0.3
202832 MLB CTXARI 100% 222194 44917 26570 11 231322402724 171284 2612 323 102 +1 -0 -4 -4 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 18841655 39781755 2074316 104 240326397723 157289 2311 324 99 +11 +0 -21 -40 +41 -0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650571 13728219 711492 31 240325396721 156290 2311 324 99 +4 +0 -7 -14 +14 -0.3
Career— MLE — 40663608 87016219114 40885514 239 241321391712 150283 2110 315 99 +13 +0 -21 -44 +46 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 13926318 651372 41 241319390709 149283 2110 315 99 +4 +0 -6 -13 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 181 PAwOBA .402 → .327 (−75)K% 23.2% → 27.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.20%÷1.000×1.200——27.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.68%÷1.000×0.690—×0.97211.86%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9720.00%
Singles /BIP28.85%÷1.000×0.930×1.013×0.97226.42%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷1.000×0.830×1.013×0.9724.72%
Triples /BIP0.96%÷1.000×0.970×1.013×0.9720.92%
Home runs /BIP6.73%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9724.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .402 → .327; ISO .199 → .152; BABIP .374 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 17 PAwOBA .353 → .262 (−91)K% 35.3% → 41.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.29%÷1.025×1.200——41.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷0.964×0.690—×0.9828.27%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9820.00%
Singles /BIP11.11%÷0.994×0.930—×0.98210.21%
Doubles /BIP33.33%÷1.069×0.830—×0.98225.42%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.902×0.970—×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.904×0.700—×0.9820.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .353 → .262; ISO .200 → .145; BABIP .444 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 289 PAwOBA .425 → .327 (−98)K% 17.0% → 21.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.96%÷0.964×1.200——21.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.26%÷1.012×0.690—×0.99211.00%
HBP% /PA0.35%—×0.940—×0.9920.32%
Singles /BIP24.06%÷1.076×0.930×0.986×0.99220.34%
Doubles /BIP8.02%÷1.025×0.830×0.986×0.9926.35%
Triples /BIP1.07%÷1.017×0.970×0.986×0.9921.00%
Home runs /BIP6.95%÷1.124×0.700—×0.9924.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .425 → .327; ISO .246 → .176; BABIP .350 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 290 PAwOBA .405 → .330 (−75)K% 16.2% → 20.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.21%÷0.951×1.200——20.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.17%÷1.096×0.690—×1.0039.58%
HBP% /PA0.69%—×0.940—×1.0030.65%
Singles /BIP26.56%÷1.026×0.930×1.008×1.00324.36%
Doubles /BIP7.29%÷1.059×0.830×1.008×1.0035.78%
Triples /BIP1.04%÷1.150×0.970×1.008×1.0030.89%
Home runs /BIP4.69%÷1.012×0.700—×1.0033.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .405 → .330; ISO .188 → .146; BABIP .360 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 17 PAwOBA .450 → .384 (−66)K% 5.9% → 7.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA5.88%÷1.004×1.200——7.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.020×0.690—×1.0180.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP31.25%÷1.025×0.930—×1.01828.87%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.996×0.830—×1.0185.30%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.100×0.970—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷0.965×0.700—×1.0184.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .450 → .384; ISO .235 → .178; BABIP .400 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJackson Generals · 507 PAwOBA .362 → .312 (−51)K% 12.0% → 14.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.03%÷1.028×1.220——14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.44%÷1.001×0.680—×1.0277.98%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP21.37%÷0.996×0.920×0.950×1.02719.26%
Doubles /BIP7.65%÷1.099×0.910×0.950×1.0276.18%
Triples /BIP1.58%÷0.900×0.880×0.950×1.0271.51%
Home runs /BIP3.17%÷0.966×0.800—×1.0272.69%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .362 → .312; ISO .175 → .155; BABIP .310 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Visalia Rawhide · 504 PAwOBA .325 → .282 (−43)K% 12.9% → 16.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.90%÷1.029×1.340——16.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.008×0.710—×1.0127.92%
HBP% /PA0.79%—×0.790—×1.0120.63%
Singles /BIP20.05%÷0.978×0.910×1.025×1.01219.36%
Doubles /BIP6.68%÷1.051×0.820×1.025×1.0125.41%
Triples /BIP0.27%÷0.900×0.760×1.025×1.0120.23%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷1.018×0.920—×1.0122.69%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .325 → .282; ISO .137 → .120; BABIP .275 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .