Pavin Smith — OGILVIE

Pavin Smith1B Arizona Diamondbacks

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 30 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 4.087 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.6 · 2027

wRC+†vL 93124vR 141

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .340 / .439

PA124

HR5

K%26

BB%13

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

40→40

EYE

64↘60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.087 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	2 teams	576	523	118	23	1	11	45	97	4	4	2	.226	.292	.337	.628	.111	.255	17	8	.280	72	-18	+0	+0	-10	+16	-1.2
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	507	460	115	23	7	12	40	77	0	2	1	.250	.310	.409	.719	.159	.272	15	8	.313	98	-1	+0	+0	-9	+14	0.4
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	37	9	0	0	1	5	8	0	1	0	.243	.333	.324	.658	.081	.267	18	11	.312	97	-0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.0
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	545	498	131	26	4	10	42	106	4	1	0	.263	.325	.392	.717	.129	.316	19	8	.316	100	-0	+0	-5	-10	+15	0.0
2022	26	MLB	3 teams	359	319	74	11	0	13	34	83	2	2	0	.232	.310	.389	.699	.157	.269	23	9	.300	88	-5	+0	-2	-4	+10	-0.0
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	518	448	101	16	1	14	64	108	3	3	1	.225	.326	.359	.686	.134	.264	21	12	.309	94	-3	+0	-5	-6	+15	0.1
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	447	389	96	22	2	18	51	97	1	2	1	.247	.336	.452	.788	.206	.279	22	11	.338	117	+9	+0	-2	-5	+13	1.5
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	305	261	66	19	1	8	42	100	0	2	2	.253	.356	.425	.782	.172	.374	33	14	.343	120	+7	-0	-3	-5	+9	0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	ARI	124	107	26	6	0	5	16	32	0	1	0	.243	.341	.439	.781	.196	.293	26	13	.348	124	+3	+0	-1	-2	+4	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB	ARI	400	344	83	19	1	16	52	104	1	1	0	.241	.343	.442	.784	.201	.292	26	13	.344	121	+10	+0	-8	-7	+11	0.7
2028	32	MLB	ARI	381	328	77	17	1	15	49	101	1	0	0	.235	.336	.430	.766	.195	.290	27	13	.339	118	+8	+0	-8	-7	+11	0.4
2029	33	MLB	ARI	351	302	70	16	1	13	45	96	1	0	0	.232	.333	.421	.754	.189	.288	27	13	.333	113	+5	+0	-8	-6	+10	0.1
2030	34	MLB	ARI	307	264	60	13	1	11	39	86	1	0	0	.227	.329	.409	.738	.182	.286	28	13	.326	108	+3	+0	-9	-5	+9	-0.3
2031	35	MLB	ARI	254	220	49	11	1	9	32	74	0	0	0	.223	.321	.405	.726	.182	.283	29	13	.317	101	+0	+0	-9	-5	+7	-0.6
2032	36	MLB	ARI	197	170	35	8	0	6	25	59	0	0	0	.206	.308	.359	.667	.153	.279	30	13	.308	94	-1	+0	-9	-4	+6	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5315	4670	1110	230	21	162	581	1228	18	19	7	.238	.324	.400	.724	.162	.286	23	11	.319	103	+15	+1	-68	-85	+151	1.3
/ 162G	—			650	571	136	28	3	20	71	150	2	2	1	.238	.325	.403	.727	.165	.286	23	11	.319	103	+2	+0	-8	-10	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	504	439	112	25	1	11	57	65	4	3	2	.255	.346	.392	.738	.137	.275	13	11	.332	112	+7	-0	—	—	+14	2.1
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	72	64	16	1	0	0	8	9	0	1	0	.250	.333	.266	.599	.016	.291	12	11	.284	75	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	507	440	128	29	6	12	59	61	0	2	1	.291	.374	.466	.840	.175	.310	12	12	.368	139	+23	+0	—	—	+14	3.8
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	37	10	0	1	1	5	8	0	1	0	.270	.357	.405	.763	.135	.300	18	11	.328	109	+0	+0	-0	-1	+1	0.1
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	545	498	133	27	4	11	42	106	4	1	0	.267	.329	.404	.733	.137	.319	19	8	.328	109	+6	+0	-5	-10	+15	0.6
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	277	245	54	9	0	9	28	67	1	1	0	.220	.303	.367	.670	.147	.262	24	10	.300	88	-4	+0	-2	-4	+8	-0.2
2022	26	AAA	Reno Aces	17	17	7	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	.412	.412	.647	1.059	.235	.400	6	0	.464	213	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2022	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	65	48	14	3	1	1	15	13	1	1	0	.292	.469	.458	.927	.167	.371	20	23	.414	175	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	228	191	36	5	0	7	35	45	1	1	1	.188	.316	.325	.640	.136	.209	20	15	.298	86	-4	-0	-5	-6	+6	-0.8
2023	27	AAA	Reno Aces	290	239	76	14	2	9	46	47	2	2	0	.318	.432	.506	.938	.188	.360	16	16	.413	174	+24	+0	—	—	+8	3.3
2024	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	158	137	37	11	0	9	18	31	0	1	0	.270	.355	.547	.902	.277	.280	20	11	.385	153	+9	+0	-2	-5	+4	0.8
2024	28	AAA	Reno Aces	289	236	75	15	2	13	49	49	1	1	1	.318	.437	.564	1.001	.246	.350	17	17	.433	190	+29	-0	—	—	+8	3.8
2025	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	288	244	63	17	1	8	41	92	0	2	2	.258	.364	.434	.798	.176	.377	32	14	.355	130	+10	-0	-3	-5	+8	0.9
2025	29	AAA	Reno Aces	17	15	4	3	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	.267	.353	.467	.820	.200	.444	35	12	.362	135	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1540	1352	333	69	6	45	169	349	6	7	3	.246	.332	.406	.738	.160	.297	23	11	.329	110	+18	+0	-17	-30	+44	1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pavin Smith (OGILVIE)	30	50	60	40	60	.239/.340/.439	.200	.293	5	1	26%	13%	124	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Vogelbach 2023 · MLB	30	48→50	55→60	46→40	64	.245/.360/.432	.187	.293	23	2	24%	15%	129	+3.7	.241/.342/.416	.175	.296	21	3	24%	13%	118	+3.0	.237/.342/.408	.171	.289	24	0	25%	13%	111	+1.3
●Adam LaRoche 2010 · MLB	30	53→55	57→65	41→40	54	.272/.346/.479	.207	.317	23	3	22%	10%	135	+4.2	.255/.327/.448	.193	.311	22	3	24%	10%	120	+3.1	.247/.340/.453	.206	.275	27	3	21%	12%	118	+3.0
●Lucas Duda 2016 · MLB	30	47→54	59→65	36→30	56	.249/.351/.464	.215	.295	27	3	25%	12%	134	+4.1	.240/.331/.471	.231	.281	30	2	25%	11%	128	+3.7	.226/.314/.460	.234	.262	32	1	27%	10%	111	+1.5
●Dan Johnson 2010 · MLB	30	48→53	56→60	43→30	60	.253/.345/.445	.192	.272	24	3	18%	12%	127	+3.6	.234/.324/.428	.194	.254	26	3	20%	11%	115	+2.7	.226/.319/.421	.195	.239	27	1	19%	11%	110	+2.2
●Jason Kubel 2012 · MLB	30	52→57	56→60	41→40	52	.270/.337/.462	.192	.305	23	2	20%	9%	128	+3.6	.244/.317/.419	.175	.309	21	3	26%	10%	108	+2.3	.231/.311/.396	.165	.305	19	1	29%	10%	90	+0.6
✕Logan Morrison 2018 · MLB	30	45→55	60→65	46→45	56	.243/.333/.460	.216	.267	29	6	22%	11%	126	+3.5	.228/.310/.446	.218	.250	30	4	23%	9%	114	+2.7	.208/.282/.419	.211	.217	30	1	22%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Michael Saunders 2017 · MLB	30	48→52	54→55	41→55	52	.245/.326/.430	.185	.308	21	4	27%	10%	115	+2.8	.218/.282/.364	.146	.274	16	4	26%	8%	79	+0.3	.192/.246/.302	.110	.241	10	3	24%	6%	43	-1.0
●Jesús Aguilar 2021 · MLB	31	49→50	57→60	41→40	54	.258/.340/.456	.198	.296	26	2	22%	11%	128	+3.6	.245/.311/.418	.173	.280	23	2	21%	8%	106	+2.2	.237/.300/.396	.159	.273	22	0	22%	8%	91	+0.8
✕Ben Broussard 2007 · MLB	30	53→56	56→60	45	48	.271/.331/.472	.200	.309	24	4	21%	7%	128	+3.6	.254/.309/.423	.169	.293	21	5	21%	6%	106	+2.2	.239/.295/.372	.133	.289	16	2	22%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Luke Voit 2020 · MLB	29	52→55	57→60	42→30	52	.266/.351/.466	.200	.325	24	2	25%	10%	134	+4.1	.252/.334/.460	.208	.314	28	2	28%	10%	127	+3.6	.233/.312/.430	.197	.296	28	1	30%	9%	108	+1.4
●Joc Pederson 2022 · MLB	30	43→52	59→65	42→55	49	.235/.315/.445	.210	.264	28	4	23%	9%	115	+2.8	.252/.342/.457	.205	.294	26	5	23%	10%	129	+3.7	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
●Rhys Hoskins 2022 · MLB	29	44→52	61→60	43→45	59	.236/.347/.469	.233	.271	28	4	24%	13%	134	+4.1	.237/.324/.449	.212	.281	27	4	25%	11%	120	+3.1	.226/.317/.410	.184	.276	25	3	27%	11%	103	+1.7
✕Ji Man Choi 2021 · MLB	30	50→51	55→60	43→45	58	.255/.351/.448	.192	.307	21	4	23%	12%	130	+3.8	.237/.338/.413	.176	.312	19	3	28%	13%	115	+2.8	.221/.327/.395	.174	.293	20	0	29%	13%	100	+0.9
✕Justin Bour 2019 · MLB	31	49→55	58→60	49→40	58	.256/.349/.455	.199	.293	27	3	22%	12%	131	+3.9	.228/.323/.426	.198	.275	26	4	26%	12%	113	+2.6	.197/.296/.401	.204	.229	28	2	28%	12%	92	+0.5
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	49→56	51→60	41→50	58	.248/.342/.414	.166	.292	18	6	21%	12%	118	+3.0	.232/.336/.402	.170	.278	19	4	22%	13%	112	+2.6	.231/.347/.434	.202	.261	25	3	21%	15%	118	+1.9
✕Mike Yastrzemski 2021 · MLB	30	49	57→65	44→50	49	.253/.325/.463	.210	.310	24	7	26%	9%	123	+3.3	.234/.320/.448	.214	.281	25	6	25%	10%	118	+3.0	.230/.321/.425	.195	.272	22	5	23%	11%	107	+1.7
●Corey Hart 2012 · MLB	30	52→56	56→60	44→55	50	.267/.334/.463	.196	.308	23	9	21%	8%	127	+3.6	.254/.319/.444	.190	.302	23	7	23%	8%	116	+2.8	.233/.294/.406	.174	.282	21	4	25%	6%	89	+0.6
✕Jake Lamb 2020 · MLB	29	43→53	53→60	44→45	57	.224/.328/.400	.176	.272	21	5	25%	13%	108	+2.3	.215/.309/.377	.162	.277	19	4	28%	11%	95	+1.4	.224/.314/.381	.158	.293	20	1	29%	10%	95	+0.8
✕Jared Walsh 2023 · MLB	30	46→52	56→60	45→30	44	.243/.301/.435	.192	.298	24	4	27%	7%	106	+2.2	.197/.274/.348	.151	.290	20	4	37%	9%	72	-0.2	.149/.244/.279	.130	.233	19	1	42%	10%	40	-1.1
✕Ike Davis 2015 · MLB	28	43→53	55→60	37→40	59	.229/.329/.416	.186	.264	23	3	23%	13%	113	+2.6	.221/.300/.361	.140	.278	15	3	25%	10%	86	+0.8	.211/.278/.331	.120	.269	12	0	25%	9%	68	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)