Jurickson Profar

LF Atlanta Braves

Age 34 S/R 5'11" / 184 lbs MLB Svc 11.500 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	144	.239/.377/.389	4	5	107	—	.312/.421/.688
2023	30	MLBSD	521	.242/.324/.368	9	1	100	-0.9
2024	31	MLBSD	668	.280/.383/.459	24	10	137	3.0
2025	32	AAAATL	59	.333/.429/.583	3	0	124	—	.275/.339/.431
2025	32	MLBATL	371	.245/.353/.434	14	9	125	0.8
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBATL	368	.258/.357/.437	13	6	125	1.4
2028PROJ	35	MLBATL	287	.245/.343/.409	9	2	114	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.500First FA2028Options5

2027Ext$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA74

Avg EV49

Bat Spd46

Barrel%34

Speed26

CompsDexter Fowler (age 33) · Asdrúbal Cabrera (age 34) · José Cruz Jr. (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 125125vR 125

AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .357 / .437

PA368

HR13

SB6

K%16

BB%11

BABIP278

ISO180

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

560.256

POWER

Barrel%

346.2

Avg EV

4989.1

Bat Spd

4670.9

SPEED

Sprint

2626.3

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 1039 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

282

757

—

wRC+

133

131

—

wOBA

365

362

—

ISO

180

184

—

BABIP

294

285

—

12.4%

16.5%

◀◀L

BB%

9.9%

12.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 11.500 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$14M	+1.4	$11M	-$3M
Totals		$14M		$11M	-$3M

Options · projected decision
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	PLAYER OPT	$6.5M / $1.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$7.5M / $1.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	PLAYER OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	18	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	516	430	123	37	8	12	65	63	11	23	9	286	393	493	886	207	309	12	13	385	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	17	17	3	2	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	176	176	471	647	294	167	24	0	273	62	-1	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.2
2012	19	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	562	480	135	26	7	14	66	79	5	16	4	281	374	452	826	171	306	14	12	362	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	42	38	6	1	0	1	4	7	0	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	167	17	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	324	286	67	11	0	6	26	63	5	2	4	234	309	336	645	101	280	19	8	289	75	-9	-1	+0	+2	+7	-0.1
2013	20	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	166	144	40	7	2	4	21	24	0	6	1	278	370	438	807	160	310	14	13	359	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	115	88	25	5	1	1	24	10	1	6	3	284	442	398	840	114	308	9	21	382	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	35	33	9	1	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	273	314	394	708	121	348	26	3	318	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	91	75	20	6	1	2	11	10	1	1	3	267	368	453	821	187	269	11	12	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	307	272	65	6	3	5	30	61	3	2	1	239	321	338	660	99	291	20	10	300	83	-6	+0	+5	+2	+7	0.7
2016	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	189	169	48	9	0	5	16	26	3	4	3	284	356	426	782	142	312	14	8	350	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	70	58	10	2	0	0	9	14	1	1	1	172	294	207	501	34	227	20	13	240	42	-5	-0	+1	-5	+2	-0.8
2017	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	383	327	94	25	0	7	43	33	8	5	0	287	384	428	812	141	302	9	11	362	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	594	524	133	35	6	20	54	88	12	10	0	254	337	458	795	204	269	15	9	350	113	+9	+2	-11	+6	+13	2.0
2019	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	518	459	100	24	2	20	48	75	8	9	1	218	303	410	712	192	218	14	9	316	103	+2	+1	-3	+2	+11	1.3
2020	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	202	180	50	6	0	7	15	28	4	7	1	278	347	428	775	150	293	14	7	342	119	+5	+1	-1	-2	+4	0.7
2021	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	412	353	80	17	2	4	49	65	6	10	5	227	330	320	650	93	266	16	12	300	91	-4	+0	-8	-4	+9	-0.8
2022	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	658	575	140	36	2	15	73	103	4	5	1	243	333	391	724	148	272	16	11	324	109	+7	+1	-4	-7	+14	1.1
2023	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	521	459	111	27	2	9	50	90	6	1	0	242	324	368	692	126	279	17	10	311	100	-0	+0	-13	-7	+11	-0.9
2023	30	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	14	5	0	0	2	5	2	0	0	0	357	526	786	1.312	429	273	10	25	518	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL	Curacao	—	124	99	22	5	0	2	18	19	2	5	2	222	353	333	686	111	247	15	15	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	668	564	158	29	0	24	76	101	18	10	3	280	383	459	842	179	302	15	11	372	137	+30	+1	-8	-7	+14	3.0
2025	32	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	371	318	78	16	1	14	48	59	5	9	2	245	353	434	787	189	261	16	13	353	125	+11	+1	-8	-5	+8	0.8
2025	32	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	59	48	16	3	0	3	8	6	0	0	0	333	429	583	1.012	250	310	10	14	419	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4662	4065	995	211	18	125	478	751	72	66	19	245	335	398	732	153	271	16	10	327	108	+43	+6	-50	-23	+101	7.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	516	453	116	35	9	9	42	87	11	23	9	256	334	433	767	177	287	17	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	17	17	3	2	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	176	176	471	647	294	167	24	0	259	62	-1	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.2
2012	19	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	562	504	132	23	7	11	42	98	5	16	4	262	325	401	726	139	293	17	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	324	286	66	10	0	6	26	63	5	2	4	231	306	329	635	98	280	19	8	280	75	-9	-1	+0	+2	+7	-0.1
2013	20	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	166	149	35	6	2	4	16	32	0	6	1	235	309	383	692	148	268	19	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	35	33	8	1	0	1	1	12	1	0	0	242	286	364	649	121	318	34	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	307	272	65	6	3	5	30	61	3	2	1	239	321	338	660	99	291	20	10	290	83	-6	+0	+5	+2	+7	0.7
2016	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	189	173	47	7	0	5	12	33	3	4	3	272	330	399	729	127	307	17	6	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	70	58	10	2	0	0	9	14	1	1	1	172	294	207	501	34	227	20	13	230	42	-5	-0	+1	-5	+2	-0.8
2017	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	383	339	84	21	0	5	31	41	8	5	0	248	325	354	679	106	265	11	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	594	525	130	33	6	19	53	88	12	10	0	248	331	442	772	194	269	15	9	335	113	+9	+2	-11	+6	+13	2.0
2019	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	518	461	101	23	2	22	46	75	8	9	1	219	301	421	722	202	218	14	9	320	103	+2	+1	-3	+2	+11	1.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	202	180	50	6	0	7	15	28	4	7	1	278	347	428	775	150	293	14	7	345	119	+5	+1	-1	-2	+4	0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	412	355	81	18	2	4	48	65	6	10	5	228	330	324	654	96	266	16	12	303	91	-4	+0	-8	-4	+9	-0.8
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	658	575	143	38	2	15	73	103	4	5	1	249	337	400	737	151	272	16	11	329	109	+7	+1	-4	-7	+14	1.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	521	460	114	29	2	9	50	90	6	1	0	248	329	378	708	130	279	17	10	316	100	-0	+0	-13	-7	+11	-0.9
2023	30	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	16	5	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	0	312	421	688	1.109	375	245	10	15	440	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	668	568	160	31	0	23	72	101	18	10	3	282	380	458	838	176	302	15	11	371	137	+30	+1	-8	-7	+14	3.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	371	318	78	16	1	14	48	59	5	9	2	245	353	434	787	189	261	16	13	353	125	+11	+1	-8	-5	+8	0.8
2025	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	59	51	14	2	0	2	5	7	0	0	0	275	339	431	771	157	263	12	8	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	516	453	116	35	9	9	42	87	11	23	9	256	334	433	767	177	296	17	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	516	430	123	37	8	12	65	63	11	23	9	286	393	493	886	207	309	12	13	385	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	621	560	146	27	8	13	45	110	5	16	4	261	321	407	728	146	298	18	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	AA RAW	3 teams	—	621	535	144	29	7	16	70	90	5	16	4	269	359	439	798	170	292	14	11	350	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	605	537	123	20	2	11	52	117	6	14	8	229	304	335	639	106	273	19	9	284	78	-16	-0	+0	+2	+13	-0.1
2013	20	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	605	518	132	23	3	11	71	97	6	14	8	255	351	375	726	120	294	16	12	326	78	-16	-0	+0	+2	+13	-0.1
2015	22	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	126	118	26	3	0	2	2	45	2	1	3	220	246	297	543	76	320	36	2	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	126	108	29	7	1	3	12	19	2	1	3	269	352	435	788	167	289	15	10	341	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	496	445	111	13	3	10	42	94	6	6	4	249	323	360	682	110	296	19	8	299	89	-7	-0	+5	+2	+11	1.1
2016	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	496	441	113	15	3	10	46	87	6	6	4	256	335	372	707	116	299	18	9	319	89	-7	-0	+5	+2	+11	1.1
2017	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	453	397	94	23	0	5	40	55	9	6	1	237	321	332	653	96	263	12	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	453	385	104	27	0	7	52	47	9	6	1	270	370	395	765	125	292	10	11	343	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	594	525	130	33	6	19	53	88	12	10	0	248	331	442	772	194	263	15	9	335	113	+9	+2	-11	+6	+13	2.0
2018	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	594	524	133	35	6	20	54	88	12	10	0	254	337	458	795	204	269	15	9	350	113	+9	+2	-11	+6	+13	2.0
2019	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	518	461	101	23	2	22	46	75	8	9	1	219	301	421	722	202	215	14	9	320	103	+2	+1	-3	+2	+11	1.3
2019	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	518	459	100	24	2	20	48	75	8	9	1	218	303	410	712	192	218	14	9	316	103	+2	+1	-3	+2	+11	1.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	202	180	50	6	0	7	15	28	4	7	1	278	347	428	775	150	293	14	7	345	119	+5	+1	-1	-2	+4	0.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	202	180	50	6	0	7	15	28	4	7	1	278	347	428	775	150	293	14	7	342	119	+5	+1	-1	-2	+4	0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	412	355	81	18	2	4	48	65	6	10	5	228	330	324	654	96	267	16	12	303	91	-4	+0	-8	-4	+9	-0.8
2021	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	412	353	80	17	2	4	49	65	6	10	5	227	330	320	650	93	266	16	12	300	91	-4	+0	-8	-4	+9	-0.8
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	658	575	143	38	2	15	73	103	4	5	1	249	337	400	737	151	278	16	11	329	109	+7	+1	-4	-7	+14	1.1
2022	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	658	575	140	36	2	15	73	103	4	5	1	243	333	391	724	148	272	16	11	324	109	+7	+1	-4	-7	+14	1.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	665	580	145	35	3	13	66	114	8	6	2	250	335	388	723	138	286	17	10	320	103	+2	+0	-13	-7	+14	-0.3
2023	30	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	665	572	138	32	2	13	73	111	8	6	2	241	335	372	707	131	274	17	11	317	103	+2	+0	-13	-7	+14	-0.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	668	568	160	31	0	23	72	101	18	10	3	282	380	458	838	176	305	15	11	371	137	+30	+1	-8	-7	+14	3.0
2024	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	668	564	158	29	0	24	76	101	18	10	3	280	383	459	842	179	302	15	11	372	137	+30	+1	-8	-7	+14	3.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	369	92	18	1	16	53	66	5	9	2	249	351	434	785	184	262	15	12	353	125	+13	+1	-8	-5	+9	1.1
2025	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	430	366	94	19	1	17	56	65	5	9	2	257	363	454	817	197	268	15	13	362	125	+13	+1	-8	-5	+9	1.1
2011	18	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	516	458	116	35	9	9	42	87	11	23	9	253	334	428	762	175	287	17	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	621	566	146	27	8	13	45	110	5	16	4	258	321	403	724	145	289	18	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	605	542	123	20	2	11	52	117	6	14	8	227	304	332	636	105	276	19	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	126	121	26	3	0	2	2	45	2	1	3	215	246	289	535	74	318	36	2	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	496	445	111	13	3	10	42	94	6	6	4	249	323	360	682	110	297	19	8	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	453	401	94	23	0	5	40	55	9	6	1	234	321	329	650	95	259	12	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	594	524	130	33	6	19	53	88	12	10	0	248	331	443	773	195	269	15	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	518	459	101	23	2	22	46	75	8	9	1	220	301	423	724	203	218	14	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	202	181	50	6	0	7	15	28	4	7	1	276	347	425	772	149	293	14	7	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	412	355	81	18	2	4	48	65	6	10	5	228	330	324	654	96	266	16	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	658	576	143	38	2	15	73	103	4	5	1	248	337	399	737	151	272	16	11	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	665	586	145	35	3	13	66	114	8	6	2	247	335	384	719	137	278	17	10	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	668	573	160	31	0	23	72	101	18	10	3	279	380	454	834	175	302	15	11	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	369	92	18	1	16	53	66	5	9	2	249	351	434	785	184	261	15	12	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	668	573	160	31	0	23	72	101	18	10	3	279	380	454	834	175	302	15	11	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	369	92	18	1	16	53	66	5	9	2	249	351	434	785	184	261	15	12	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	457	394	102	20	1	16	51	74	9	8	2	258	357	437	794	179	278	16	11	353	125	+14	+1	-2	-5	+10	1.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	368	316	82	16	1	13	41	59	8	6	2	258	357	437	794	179	278	16	11	353	125	+11	+0	-2	-4	+8	1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	287	248	60	11	0	9	31	49	6	2	1	245	343	409	753	164	267	17	11	337	114	+5	+0	-7	-3	+6	0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	287	248	60	11	0	9	31	49	6	2	1	245	343	409	753	164	267	17	11	337	114	+5	+0	-7	-3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4949	4313	1055	222	18	134	509	800	78	68	20	245	335	398	733	153	270	16	10	328	105	+48	+6	-57	-26	+107	7.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	138	29	2	18	67	105	10	9	3	244	334	398	731	154	269	16	10	328	105	+6	+1	-8	-3	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	7619	6687	1660	350	39	191	721	1256	118	140	47	248	332	398	730	150	277	16	9	323	105	+59	+6	-59	-30	+115	9.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	141	30	3	16	62	107	10	12	4	247	332	395	727	147	277	16	10	323	105	+7	+1	-7	-4	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 59 PAwOBA .430 → .352 (−78)K% 10.2% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.17%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	12.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.56%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.81%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷0.968	×0.930	—	×0.952	21.77%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.162	×0.830	—	×0.952	4.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.95%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .430 → .352; ISO .250 → .193; BABIP .310 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 20 PAwOBA .531 → .440 (−91)K% 10.0% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	12.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.00%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×0.972	17.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.958	×0.930	—	×0.972	23.58%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×0.972	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×0.972	10.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .531 → .440; ISO .429 → .325; BABIP .273 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAARound Rock Express · 383 PAwOBA .354 → .301 (−52)K% 8.6% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.62%	÷1.033	×1.290	—	—	10.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.23%	÷1.037	×0.710	—	×1.048	8.06%
HBP% /PA	2.09%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.15%
Singles /BIP	21.09%	÷1.039	×0.900	×1.002	×1.048	19.19%
Doubles /BIP	8.50%	÷1.039	×0.810	×1.002	×1.048	6.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.046	×0.810	×1.002	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷1.117	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.74%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .354 → .301; ISO .141 → .113; BABIP .302 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARound Rock Express · 189 PAwOBA .340 → .313 (−27)K% 13.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.76%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	17.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.47%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.07%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.63%
Singles /BIP	23.78%	÷0.949	×0.900	×1.036	×1.050	24.52%
Doubles /BIP	6.29%	÷1.079	×0.810	×1.036	×1.050	5.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.810	×1.036	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.50%	÷0.839	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.41%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .340 → .313; ISO .142 → .128; BABIP .312 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AHickory Crawdads · 35 PAwOBA .309 → .234 (−76)K% 25.7% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.71%	÷0.967	×1.340	—	—	35.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.86%	÷1.042	×0.660	—	—	1.81%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.770	—	—	2.20%
Singles /BIP	29.17%	÷0.981	×0.920	—	—	27.35%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷0.971	×0.820	—	—	3.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.910	×0.940	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.229	×0.820	—	—	2.78%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 82, K 93, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .309 → .234; ISO .121 → .076; BABIP .348 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAARound Rock Express · 166 PAwOBA .350 → .292 (−58)K% 14.5% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.46%	÷0.978	×1.290	—	—	19.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.65%	÷0.984	×0.710	—	×1.050	9.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.50%	÷1.056	×0.900	×0.975	×1.050	19.63%
Doubles /BIP	5.83%	÷1.009	×0.810	×0.975	×1.050	4.79%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.975	×1.050	1.54%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.915	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.98%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .350 → .292; ISO .160 → .138; BABIP .310 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 562 PAwOBA .355 → .319 (−36)K% 14.1% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.06%	÷0.982	×1.220	—	—	17.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.85%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.52%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.81%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷0.978	×0.920	×1.010	×1.050	21.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.48%	÷1.035	×0.840	×1.010	×1.050	5.58%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.016	×0.940	×1.010	×1.050	1.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷1.137	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.58%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 103, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .355 → .319; ISO .171 → .146; BABIP .306 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AHickory Crawdads · 516 PAwOBA .377 → .325 (−51)K% 12.2% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.21%	÷0.974	×1.340	—	—	16.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.21%	÷1.037	×0.660	—	×1.050	8.16%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.770	—	×1.050	1.72%
Singles /BIP	17.98%	÷1.034	×0.920	×0.996	×1.050	16.73%
Doubles /BIP	10.08%	÷0.921	×0.820	×0.996	×1.050	9.38%
Triples /BIP	2.18%	÷0.946	×0.940	×0.996	×1.050	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.27%	÷1.247	×0.820	—	×1.050	2.26%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 107, 2B 84, 3B 89, K 95, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .377 → .325; ISO .207 → .182; BABIP .309 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	8.0	5,300	147	74	247	334	402	-57	-60	15.1	14.5
/162	664	18	9	-7.1	-7.6	1.9	pk7: 14
#1Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	6.5	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
/162	664	22	5	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#2Candy Maldonado'81-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 4,590 PA	6.9	4,590	146	34	252*	320*	452*	-47	-24	10.6	11.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.8	-3.4	1.5	pk7: 11
#3Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	6.5	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.8
/162	664	24	17	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#4Al Martin'92-'03 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,688 PA	7.1	4,688	132	173	264*	325*	435*	-46	-46	9.5	9.6
/162	664	19	25	-6.5	-6.4	1.3	pk7: 10
#5Jonny Gomeslast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,978 PA	6.0	3,978	162	50	243	335	438	-43	-67	8.3	9.2
/162	664	27	8	-7.1	-11.1	1.4	pk7: 10
#6Scott Spiezio'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,412 PA	6.6	4,412	119	33	245*	318*	406*	-34	-15	7.5	7.8
/162	664	18	5	-5.2	-2.3	1.1	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jurickson Profar (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	256/354/433	177	278	13	6	16%	11%	125	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Dexter Fowler 2019 · MLB	33	46→56	52→55	50→55	57	234/331/405	172	274	18	10	22%	12%	109	+2.0	236/330/403	167	290	20	9	24%	11%	109	+2.0	236/340/409	173	291	22	8	25%	12%	116	+1.4
✕Asdrúbal Cabrera 2020 · MLB	34	51→61	53→60	48→50	52	262/331/440	178	297	20	4	19%	9%	117	+2.6	242/317/408	166	286	17	4	21%	9%	105	+1.7	231/308/390	159	275	15	1	21%	10%	97	+0.5
✕José Cruz Jr. 2007 · MLB	33	47→50	52→65	47→50	61	240/339/421	181	278	19	8	21%	13%	116	+2.5	227/313/360	133	276	12	11	21%	11%	93	+0.8	225/299/351	126	277	11	14	22%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Rickie Weeks Jr. 2017 · MLB	34	47→57	53→55	50→55	50	240/324/415	175	297	21	10	26%	9%	109	+2.0	235/321/397	162	339	18	10	33%	10%	104	+1.6	205/311/338	133	377	13	5	43%	11%	88	+0.1
✕Zack Cozart 2019 · MLB	33	50→56	53→60	52→50	55	256/333/443	186	279	19	4	16%	9%	118	+2.7	219/290/349	130	248	13	6	17%	8%	82	-0.0	121/178/142	21	144	0	0	15%	5%	-8	-1.2
✕Gary Matthews Jr. 2008 · MLB	33	54→63	51→55	51→50	52	271/333/442	171	300	18	14	16%	8%	118	+2.6	248/318/378	130	302	12	11	21%	9%	98	+1.2	241/314/352	111	306	8	9	22%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Jason Kipnis 2021 · MLB	34	46→56	50→55	49→55	52	234/308/394	160	270	18	8	21%	9%	99	+1.2	234/309/390	156	295	18	7	26%	8%	98	+1.2	215/293/362	147	274	17	2	27%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Carl Everett 2005 · MLB	34	52→55	54→60	45→50	49	267/331/447	180	284	22	6	15%	6%	119	+2.7	245/308/410	165	266	22	5	17%	7%	102	+1.5	237/301/398	161	254	23	3	18%	8%	98	+0.9
✕David Dellucci 2008 · MLB	34	49→46	56→65	46→50	54	255/337/460	205	293	23	6	21%	10%	124	+3.1	237/304/389	152	286	15	7	22%	7%	96	+1.0	230/297/374	144	280	14	6	22%	6%	90	+0.3
●Michael Cuddyer 2013 · MLB	34	52→62	52→60	50	51	263/322/442	179	291	19	11	17%	8%	114	+2.4	288/341/468	180	330	20	10	18%	7%	127	+3.3	297/349/468	170	344	19	8	19%	7%	132	+2.4
✕Eduardo Escobar 2022 · MLB	33	47→57	57→60	51→50	48	249/304/451	202	272	25	3	20%	7%	110	+2.1	241/294/413	172	289	20	3	23%	7%	97	+1.1	236/286/400	163	288	18	1	24%	6%	92	+0.5
✕Orlando Merced 2002 · MLB	35	49	54→50	53→45	50	255/322/434	180	292	22	15	21%	8%	113	+2.3	252/307/399	147	290	14	10	17%	7%	99	+1.2	254/305/395	141	292	11	8	16%	7%	97	+0.5
●Brian Jordan 2001 · MLB	34	51→56	51→55	49→45	50	259/317/417	159	278	19	11	15%	7%	107	+1.8	280/329/458	178	303	21	5	15%	6%	120	+2.8	286/336/464	178	309	21	3	15%	6%	126	+2.4
✕Scott Spiezio 2007 · MLB	34	47→57	53→55	51→45	53	241/320/419	178	273	20	5	20%	9%	108	+1.9	255/331/402	147	295	15	5	18%	9%	109	+2.0	263/346/377	114	304	9	0	16%	10%	109	+0.9
✕Seth Smith 2017 · MLB	34	50→55	52→60	46→50	55	252/339/430	178	292	19	2	20%	10%	118	+2.6	251/329/419	168	295	19	5	21%	9%	112	+2.2	250/329/414	164	295	19	3	21%	9%	112	+1.3
✕Aaron Hicks 2022 · MLB	32	44→54	52→60	47→55	60	227/335/395	168	268	19	7	22%	13%	109	+2.0	226/326/344	118	287	13	11	24%	12%	94	+0.9	226/331/332	106	287	12	13	23%	13%	94	+0.6
✕Jorge Cantu 2016 · AAA	34	51→58	55	48→40	47	264/320/449	185	285	23	6	18%	6%	116	+2.5	226/282/349	123	273	13	6	22%	6%	78	-0.3	201/259/306	105	251	12	3	24%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Michael Tucker 2005 · MLB	34	51	49→55	48→55	56	251/332/410	159	294	15	11	20%	11%	110	+2.1	229/315/360	131	272	12	9	19%	11%	93	+0.8	208/300/322	114	250	9	9	20%	11%	78	-0.2
●Curtis Granderson 2015 · MLB	34	45→55	54→65	50	54	234/323/414	181	278	22	10	24%	11%	109	+2.0	245/340/449	204	284	24	8	22%	12%	123	+3.0	240/340/459	219	272	26	7	22%	12%	127	+3.4

Jurickson Profar

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps