Adley Rutschman — OGILVIE

Adley RutschmanC Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 S/R 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB HR +8% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION275 act + 234 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 142125vR 80

AVG/OBP/SLG.262 / .345 / .432

PA234

HR7

K%15

BB%11

BABIP285

ISO170

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

904.9%

xwOBA

660.327

POWER45

Barrel%

396.8

Avg EV

4688.8

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE55

Chase%

9023.4%

SPEED45

Sprint

2626.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1036 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

292

744

—

wRC+

137

◀◀L

wOBA

365

296

◀◀L

ISO

153

148

—

BABIP

333

239

◀◀L

14.0%

16.7%

◀◀L

BB%

9.6%

9.5%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+1.4	$11M	+$8M
2027	Arb-3	$16M	+3.5	$26M	+$11M
Totals		$19M		$37M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	2 teams	—	63	58	8	1	0	3	4	15	0	1	0	138	194	310	504	172	122	24	6	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	2 teams	—	63	53	8	1	0	3	8	11	0	1	0	151	258	340	598	189	125	17	13	266	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	543	484	114	22	1	15	48	117	7	3	4	236	314	378	692	143	278	22	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	543	452	129	25	2	23	79	90	7	3	4	285	399	502	901	217	309	17	15	396	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	3 teams	—	540	458	114	36	1	15	71	94	7	4	0	249	358	430	788	181	280	17	13	346	123	+14	+1	+22	+10	+15	6.3
2022	24	MLB	3 teams	—	540	455	117	38	1	16	74	93	7	4	0	257	369	451	820	193	289	17	14	364	137	+22	+1	+22	+10	+15	7.1
2023	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	687	588	158	29	1	19	92	101	2	1	2	269	370	418	788	150	294	15	13	342	120	+16	-1	+17	+12	+19	6.5
2023	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	687	588	163	31	1	20	92	101	2	1	2	277	377	435	812	158	303	15	13	363	136	+28	-1	+17	+12	+19	7.8
2024	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	638	571	139	20	1	18	58	103	2	1	0	243	315	377	692	133	265	16	9	301	88	-8	+0	+11	+11	+18	3.3
2024	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	638	571	143	21	1	19	58	103	2	1	0	250	322	391	712	140	272	16	9	317	101	+1	+0	+11	+11	+18	4.2
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	399	351	74	17	2	9	44	65	1	0	0	211	301	348	648	137	232	16	11	294	83	-8	+0	+6	+7	+11	1.7
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	399	348	77	18	2	10	47	63	1	0	0	221	316	371	686	149	241	16	12	309	94	-2	+0	+6	+7	+11	2.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	BAL	—	275	241	61	18	1	8	28	39	1	0	1	253	333	436	769	183	266	14	10	332	113	+4	-0	+1	+5	+8	1.8
YTD	28	MLB	BAL	—	275	241	61	18	1	8	28	39	1	0	1	253	333	436	769	183	266	14	10	336	115	+5	-0	+1	+5	+8	1.9
ROS	28	MLB	BAL	100%	234	206	54	12	1	7	25	35	1	0	0	262	345	432	777	170	279	15	11	335	114	+4	+0	+2	+4	+7	1.7
ROS	28	MLB	BAL	100%	234	206	54	12	1	7	25	35	1	0	0	262	345	432	777	170	283	15	11	338	116	+4	+0	+2	+4	+7	1.8
FULL	28	MLB	BAL	—	509	447	115	30	2	15	53	74	2	0	1	257	339	434	773	177	275	15	10	335	114	+8	-0	+3	+9	+14	3.5
TOT	28	MLB	BAL	—	509	447	115	30	2	15	53	74	2	0	1	257	339	434	773	177	275	15	10	333	113	+8	-0	+3	+9	+14	3.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	BAL	100%	520	458	117	27	1	14	55	80	2	1	1	255	338	410	748	155	279	15	11	334	114	+8	-0	+3	+9	+15	3.6
2028	30	MLB	BAL	100%	520	458	116	26	1	14	55	81	2	1	1	253	336	406	742	153	278	16	11	331	111	+7	-0	+3	+9	+15	3.4
2029	31	MLB	BAL	100%	504	444	111	25	1	13	53	80	2	1	1	250	333	399	731	149	276	16	11	326	108	+4	-0	+2	+9	+14	3.0
2030	32	MLB	BAL	100%	489	434	105	23	1	12	51	80	1	1	1	242	323	382	706	141	271	16	10	320	103	+2	-0	+1	+9	+14	2.5
2031	33	MLB	BAL	100%	461	409	97	21	1	11	48	77	1	0	0	237	319	374	693	137	266	17	10	312	97	-2	+0	+0	+8	+13	2.0
2032	34	MLB	BAL	100%	378	335	77	16	1	8	39	66	1	0	0	230	312	355	667	125	259	17	10	301	89	-5	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.1
2033	35	MLB	BAL	100%	274	243	54	11	0	6	28	50	1	0	0	222	305	342	647	119	251	18	10	289	80	-6	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.3
2027	29	MLB	BAL	100%	520	458	119	27	1	15	55	80	2	1	1	260	342	421	763	162	284	15	11	337	116	+9	-0	+3	+9	+15	3.7
2028	30	MLB	BAL	100%	520	458	118	27	1	14	55	81	2	1	1	258	340	413	752	155	283	16	11	334	114	+8	-0	+3	+9	+15	3.5
2029	31	MLB	BAL	100%	504	444	114	26	1	14	53	80	2	1	1	257	339	414	753	158	280	16	11	329	110	+6	-0	+2	+9	+14	3.1
2030	32	MLB	BAL	100%	489	434	108	24	1	13	51	80	1	1	1	249	329	399	728	150	276	16	10	323	105	+3	-0	+1	+9	+14	2.7
2031	33	MLB	BAL	100%	461	409	99	22	1	11	48	77	1	0	0	242	323	381	705	139	271	17	10	315	99	-1	+0	+0	+8	+13	2.1
2032	34	MLB	BAL	100%	378	335	79	17	1	9	39	66	1	0	0	236	317	373	690	137	263	17	10	304	91	-4	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.2
2033	35	MLB	BAL	100%	274	243	54	11	0	6	28	50	1	0	0	222	305	342	647	119	255	18	10	292	82	-6	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5540	4866	1223	269	12	150	609	896	20	10	6	251	337	404	741	153	278	16	11	329	110	+63	-0	+62	+101	+157	39.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	144	32	1	18	71	105	2	1	1	252	336	406	743	154	279	16	11	329	110	+7	-0	+7	+12	+18	4.6
Career	—			—	6250	5497	1338	286	13	164	671	1044	30	14	10	243	329	390	719	146	271	17	11	319	102	+15	-1	+62	+112	+177	37.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	139	30	1	17	70	109	3	1	1	243	329	388	717	145	271	17	11	319	102	+2	-0	+6	+12	+18	3.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	47	39	6	1	0	2	6	9	0	0	0	154	261	333	594	179	138	19	13	263	59	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2019	21	ROK	GCL Orioles	—	16	14	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	143	250	357	607	214	91	12	12	274	68	-1	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2021	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	185	157	49	9	2	5	24	33	2	2	2	312	410	490	900	178	364	18	13	396	161	+13	-0	—	—	+5	1.8
2021	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	358	295	80	16	0	18	55	57	5	1	2	271	393	508	902	237	279	16	15	396	161	+25	-1	—	—	+10	3.5
2022	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	470	398	101	35	1	13	65	86	4	4	0	254	364	445	809	191	291	18	14	359	133	+18	+1	+22	+10	+13	6.4
2022	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	53	43	10	0	0	3	7	6	3	0	0	233	377	442	819	209	206	11	13	371	142	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2022	24	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	17	14	6	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	429	500	643	1.143	214	429	6	12	468	217	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2023	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	687	588	163	31	1	20	92	101	2	1	2	277	377	435	812	158	303	15	13	363	136	+28	-1	+17	+12	+19	7.8
2024	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	638	571	143	21	1	19	58	103	2	1	0	250	322	391	712	140	272	16	9	317	101	+1	+0	+11	+11	+18	4.2
2025	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	365	322	71	16	2	9	40	57	1	0	0	220	309	366	675	146	240	16	11	304	91	-4	+0	+6	+7	+10	2.0
2025	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	34	26	6	2	0	1	7	6	0	0	0	231	394	423	817	192	250	18	21	360	134	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2160	1879	478	103	5	61	255	347	9	6	2	254	346	412	758	158	280	16	12	339	117	+42	+0	+56	+40	+61	20.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1J.J. Hardylast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,309 PA	13	6,309	188	8	256	305	408	+68	+163	40.4	35.7
	/162	664	20	1	256	305	408	+7.1	+17.2	4.3	pk7: 31
#2Brandon Crawfordlast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,318 PA	14	6,318	147	47	249	318	395	+68	+142	38.9	34.0
	/162	664	15	5	249	318	395	+7.1	+14.9	4.1	pk7: 29
#3Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	6,090	162	11	250	331	400	+99	+148	32.2	28.1
	/162	664	18	1	250	331	400	+10.8	+16.2	3.5	pk7: 24
#4Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	13	4,082	137	8	246	295	412	+69	+103	27.4	26.2
#4Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	/162	664	22	1	246	295	412	+11.2	+16.8	4.4	pk7: 25
#5Tyler Flowerslast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,741 PA	10	2,741	86	2	238	319	394	+49	+142	27.5	25.8
	/162	664	21	0	238	319	394	+11.9	+34.4	6.7	pk7: 24
#6Geovany Sotolast yr '16 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,801 PA	10	2,801	105	3	247	332	438	+50	+74	26.0	24.9
	/162	664	25	1	247	332	438	+11.9	+17.5	6.2	pk7: 24

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adley Rutschman (OGILVIE)	28	55	45	45	55	257/339/434	177	275	15	0	15%	10%	113	+3.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Neil Walker 2014 · MLB	28	53→57	49→55	42→45	53	264/338/418	155	297	16	5	17%	9%	117	+2.9	269/338/446	177	298	21	4	17%	8%	124	+3.4	273/340/454	181	300	23	3	17%	8%	122	+2.9
✕Victor Caratini 2022 · MLB	28	49→58	45→50	46→40	52	240/321/360	120	295	14	5	23%	10%	95	+1.4	237/319/374	137	281	17	4	21%	9%	98	+1.6	255/326/387	132	291	18	1	18%	7%	102	+0.9
●Jed Lowrie 2012 · MLB	28	49→59	49→55	46→40	52	244/309/400	156	272	16	5	17%	8%	100	+1.7	261/328/418	157	290	16	3	15%	9%	112	+2.6	268/351/444	176	309	17	0	18%	11%	125	+3.5
✕Willy Aybar 2010 · MLB	27	50→56	51→50	45→40	56	252/327/412	160	268	19	4	15%	10%	111	+2.5	235/313/372	137	273	15	5	19%	10%	95	+1.4	229/296/351	122	265	14	0	19%	8%	80	+0.2
●Josh Bard 2006 · MLB	28	47→57	46→50	44→30	54	235/299/365	131	254	14	5	14%	8%	86	+0.8	275/350/417	142	308	13	3	14%	10%	121	+3.2	276/354/403	128	310	10	1	14%	11%	111	+1.3
●Keith Ginter 2004 · MLB	28	51	51→55	45	54	254/350/421	167	296	18	4	20%	10%	124	+3.4	239/317/410	171	277	20	6	21%	8%	106	+2.2	225/303/383	158	258	18	5	20%	8%	91	+0.7
✕Johan Camargo 2022 · MLB	28	49→53	52→55	44→45	46	251/302/418	167	294	20	3	22%	7%	102	+1.8	230/290/350	120	274	14	3	21%	7%	79	+0.3	216/281/304	89	256	11	0	20%	8%	61	-0.5
●Yangervis Solarte 2016 · MLB	29	53→59	47→55	47→45	52	263/319/405	142	277	14	2	12%	7%	105	+2.1	267/323/437	170	280	20	3	13%	7%	115	+2.8	258/314/427	170	268	22	2	13%	7%	105	+1.7
●Jonah Bride 2023 · MLB	27	48→51	50	49→45	55	241/335/396	155	278	18	4	20%	10%	110	+2.4	243/335/392	149	288	17	5	21%	11%	109	+2.4	239/336/383	143	287	17	3	21%	11%	104	+1.5
✕Raul Casanova 2001 · MLB	28	49	49→60	44→30	54	245/325/400	156	281	15	6	19%	10%	107	+2.2	241/308/407	166	263	20	5	17%	8%	102	+1.8	258/315/394	135	300	16	1	19%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Dioner Navarro 2014 · MLB	30	52→61	51→50	43→45	52	264/322/416	152	280	20	3	15%	8%	109	+2.4	254/308/388	134	284	16	4	16%	7%	96	+1.5	243/297/363	120	275	14	2	17%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Donovan Walton 2022 · MLB	28	54→59	52→55	40→45	49	273/335/444	171	296	20	6	16%	7%	122	+3.3	237/297/372	135	271	13	8	17%	7%	88	+0.9	254/316/372	119	283	14	5	16%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Matt Wieters 2015 · MLB	29	46→56	53→55	45→40	51	241/301/411	171	262	22	4	18%	8%	100	+1.7	243/300/393	150	282	18	3	20%	7%	95	+1.4	235/296/372	137	273	16	1	20%	8%	83	+0.4
●Jake Cronenworth 2023 · MLB	29	51→59	52→55	48→50	55	256/339/433	177	285	18	4	17%	10%	121	+3.2	245/333/402	157	284	15	6	19%	10%	111	+2.5	242/337/391	150	283	14	5	19%	10%	107	+2.1
●Geoff Blum 2001 · MLB	28	53→58	50	38→45	50	268/325/431	162	296	18	5	16%	7%	114	+2.7	256/324/392	136	292	14	6	17%	8%	104	+2.0	255/322/381	126	287	13	5	15%	8%	93	+1.0
✕Kevin Plawecki 2019 · MLB	28	47→56	47→45	43→30	50	233/311/369	136	275	14	3	20%	8%	93	+1.3	245/315/376	131	289	12	5	19%	7%	96	+1.5	235/301/328	92	275	8	0	17%	7%	76	+0.0
●Johnny Estrada 2004 · MLB	28	49→59	45	47→30	49	239/297/359	120	251	13	6	12%	6%	85	+0.7	285/340/414	129	311	11	2	12%	6%	116	+2.8	290/339/418	128	313	11	0	11%	5%	107	+1.7
●Miguel Ojeda 2004 · MLB	29	48→51	48→50	45	56	242/330/386	144	270	16	8	17%	10%	105	+2.1	233/308/377	144	267	18	5	20%	9%	94	+1.3	257/322/406	148	293	17	7	18%	8%	104	+1.0
✕Chris Woodward 2004 · MLB	28	51→47	49→50	45	49	257/315/412	155	298	16	5	20%	7%	105	+2.1	245/304/368	123	302	10	4	21%	7%	89	+0.9	236/297/339	103	298	6	2	22%	7%	75	-0.0
●Jorge Polanco 2021 · MLB	28	56→61	49→60	45→50	51	277/334/431	154	312	15	7	17%	8%	118	+3.0	257/330/449	192	291	24	8	20%	9%	121	+3.2	251/332/449	198	287	25	7	22%	10%	120	+2.6