Jed Lowrie

PosSS

B/TS/R

Born1984-04-17

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	35	AAA/A+NYM	69	.234/.290/.359	2	0	37	—	.200/.246/.324
2021	37	MLBOakland Athle…	512	.245/.321/.398	14	0	105	1.4
2022	38	MLBOakland Athle…	184	.180/.247/.263	3	1	46	-1.2
2023	39	No MLB games played
2024	40	No MLB games played
2025	41	No MLB games played
2026	42	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2022

xwOBA56

Barrel%45

Avg EV42

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	438	374	98	21	6	3	54	65	2	2	2	262	358	374	732	112	303	15	12	328	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	177	160	48	16	1	5	12	33	3	0	1	300	360	506	866	206	347	19	7	377	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	408	337	100	31	7	8	65	58	1	5	3	297	412	501	913	205	337	14	16	399	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	306	260	67	25	3	2	35	68	1	1	0	258	348	400	748	142	328	22	11	326	107	+2	+0	+11	+6	+7	2.6
2008	24	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	234	198	53	14	2	5	31	43	0	1	0	268	367	434	801	167	310	18	13	351	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	76	68	10	2	0	2	6	20	0	0	0	147	216	265	481	118	167	26	8	215	32	-6	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.0
2009	25	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	83	68	12	3	0	3	13	13	1	0	0	176	317	353	670	176	170	16	16	305	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	197	171	49	14	0	9	25	25	1	1	1	287	381	526	907	240	292	13	13	398	149	+12	-0	+0	+1	+4	1.7
2010	26	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	17	15	5	3	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	333	375	733	1.108	400	364	24	6	443	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	341	309	78	14	4	6	23	60	2	1	1	252	308	382	690	129	289	18	7	303	85	-6	-0	-2	+4	+7	0.3
2011	27	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	19	17	7	4	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	412	474	647	1.121	235	438	5	11	487	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	387	340	83	18	0	16	43	65	2	2	0	244	332	438	771	194	257	17	11	342	116	+8	+0	+7	+4	+8	2.8
2013	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	662	603	175	45	2	15	50	91	2	1	0	290	347	446	793	156	319	14	8	349	122	+17	+0	-2	+7	+14	3.7
2014	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	566	502	125	29	3	6	51	79	5	0	0	249	324	355	679	106	281	14	9	305	89	-7	+0	+4	+6	+12	1.5
2015	31	MLB	Houston Astros	—	263	230	51	14	0	9	28	43	3	1	0	222	314	400	714	178	233	16	11	319	91	-3	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2015	31	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	250	13	0	255	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	369	338	89	12	1	2	26	65	1	0	0	263	318	322	640	59	316	18	7	290	83	-7	+0	-8	+1	+8	-0.7
2017	33	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	645	567	157	49	3	14	73	100	2	0	1	277	361	448	809	171	314	16	11	359	129	+22	-0	+6	+2	+14	4.5
2018	34	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	680	596	159	37	1	23	78	128	3	0	0	267	355	448	802	181	304	19	11	356	130	+24	+0	+8	+2	+15	5.1
2019	35	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	48	44	11	1	0	2	4	12	0	0	0	250	312	409	722	159	300	25	8	322	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	35	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	222	10	5	224	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	37	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	512	457	112	28	0	14	49	108	2	0	0	245	321	398	719	153	289	21	10	320	105	+3	+0	-2	+2	+11	1.4
2022	38	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	184	167	30	5	0	3	15	39	0	1	0	180	247	263	511	84	213	21	8	234	46	-12	+0	-1	-4	+4	-1.2
2022	38	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	21	19	6	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	316	381	632	1.013	316	308	19	10	437	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5188	4608	1185	292	17	121	502	891	24	8	3	257	333	407	740	150	292	17	10	329	109	+53	+0	+25	+35	+112	23.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	438	394	88	17	5	3	34	92	2	2	2	223	288	315	603	91	270	21	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	177	163	42	13	1	4	9	40	3	0	1	258	309	423	732	166	308	23	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	408	357	96	28	7	7	45	71	1	5	3	269	352	445	798	176	311	17	11	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	306	260	67	25	3	2	35	68	1	1	0	258	348	400	748	142	328	22	11	326	107	+2	+0	+11	+6	+7	2.6
2008	24	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	234	208	50	12	2	5	21	52	0	1	0	240	310	389	699	149	278	22	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	76	68	10	2	0	2	6	20	0	0	0	147	216	265	481	118	167	26	8	215	32	-6	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.0
2009	25	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	83	72	12	3	0	3	9	16	1	0	0	167	268	333	602	167	148	19	11	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	197	171	47	12	0	9	25	25	1	1	1	275	371	503	873	228	292	13	13	389	149	+12	-0	+0	+1	+4	1.7
2010	26	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	17	15	5	3	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	333	375	733	1.108	400	308	29	6	407	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	341	311	75	12	4	6	21	60	2	1	1	241	293	363	657	122	289	18	6	294	85	-6	-0	-2	+4	+7	0.3
2011	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	19	18	6	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	333	368	500	868	167	377	5	5	402	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	387	340	82	17	0	16	43	65	2	2	0	241	330	432	762	191	257	17	11	340	116	+8	+0	+7	+4	+8	2.8
2013	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	662	606	176	44	2	16	47	91	2	1	0	290	344	449	792	158	319	14	7	348	122	+17	+0	-2	+7	+14	3.7
2014	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	566	507	125	28	3	7	46	79	5	0	0	247	315	355	670	108	281	14	8	300	89	-7	+0	+4	+6	+12	1.5
2015	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	263	235	50	13	0	9	23	43	3	1	0	213	291	383	674	170	233	16	9	303	91	-3	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2015	31	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	209	20	0	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	369	338	89	12	1	2	26	65	1	0	0	263	318	322	640	59	316	18	7	291	83	-7	+0	-8	+1	+8	-0.7
2017	33	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	645	569	156	47	3	15	71	100	2	0	1	274	357	446	803	172	314	16	11	359	129	+22	-0	+6	+2	+14	4.5
2018	34	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	680	597	160	36	1	25	77	128	3	0	0	268	355	457	812	189	304	19	11	361	130	+24	+0	+8	+2	+15	5.1
2019	35	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	48	45	10	1	0	2	3	14	0	0	0	222	271	378	649	156	245	29	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	35	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	21	20	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	150	190	200	390	50	189	14	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	37	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	512	458	112	27	0	15	48	108	2	0	0	245	319	402	721	157	289	21	9	323	105	+3	+0	-2	+2	+11	1.4
2022	38	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	184	167	30	5	0	3	15	39	0	1	0	180	247	263	511	84	213	21	8	237	46	-12	+0	-1	-4	+4	-1.2
2022	38	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	21	20	4	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	200	238	350	588	150	255	24	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	438	394	88	17	5	3	34	92	2	2	2	223	288	315	603	91	277	21	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	438	374	98	21	6	3	54	65	2	2	2	262	358	374	732	112	303	15	12	328	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	585	520	138	41	8	11	54	110	4	5	4	265	339	438	778	173	315	19	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	585	497	148	47	8	13	77	91	4	5	4	298	396	503	899	205	340	16	13	392	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	540	468	117	37	5	7	56	120	1	2	0	250	331	395	727	145	311	22	10	316	100	+0	+0	+11	+6	+12	2.9
2008	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	540	458	120	39	5	7	66	111	1	2	0	262	356	415	771	153	320	21	12	337	100	+0	+0	+11	+6	+12	2.9
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	159	140	22	5	0	5	15	36	1	0	0	157	244	300	544	143	167	23	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	159	136	22	5	0	5	19	33	1	0	0	162	269	309	578	147	168	21	12	262	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	214	186	52	15	0	10	26	30	1	2	1	280	371	522	892	242	286	14	12	390	150	+13	+0	+0	+1	+5	1.9
2010	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	214	186	54	17	0	10	26	29	1	2	1	290	380	543	923	253	297	14	12	402	150	+13	+0	+0	+1	+5	1.9
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	329	82	16	4	6	22	61	2	1	1	249	300	377	677	128	284	17	6	299	89	-5	-0	-2	+4	+8	0.5
2011	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	360	326	85	18	4	6	25	61	2	1	1	261	317	396	713	135	298	17	7	313	89	-5	-0	-2	+4	+8	0.5
2012	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	387	340	82	17	0	16	43	65	2	2	0	241	330	432	762	191	253	17	11	340	116	+8	+0	+7	+4	+8	2.8
2012	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	387	340	83	18	0	16	43	65	2	2	0	244	332	438	771	194	257	17	11	342	116	+8	+0	+7	+4	+8	2.8
2013	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	662	606	176	44	2	16	47	91	2	1	0	290	344	449	792	158	318	14	7	348	122	+17	+0	-2	+7	+14	3.7
2013	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	662	603	175	45	2	15	50	91	2	1	0	290	347	446	793	156	319	14	8	349	122	+17	+0	-2	+7	+14	3.7
2014	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	566	507	125	28	3	7	46	79	5	0	0	247	315	355	670	108	276	14	8	300	89	-7	+0	+4	+6	+12	1.5
2014	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	566	502	125	29	3	6	51	79	5	0	0	249	324	355	679	106	281	14	9	305	89	-7	+0	+4	+6	+12	1.5
2015	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	278	249	53	14	0	9	23	46	4	1	0	213	290	378	667	165	224	17	8	298	88	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2015	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	278	244	54	15	0	9	28	45	4	1	0	221	312	393	705	172	234	16	10	315	88	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2016	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	369	338	89	12	1	2	26	65	1	0	0	263	318	322	640	59	316	18	7	291	83	-7	+0	-8	+1	+8	-0.7
2016	32	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	369	338	89	12	1	2	26	65	1	0	0	263	318	322	640	59	316	18	7	290	83	-7	+0	-8	+1	+8	-0.7
2017	33	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	645	569	156	47	3	15	71	100	2	0	1	274	357	446	803	172	309	16	11	359	129	+22	-0	+6	+2	+14	4.5
2017	33	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	645	567	157	49	3	14	73	100	2	0	1	277	361	448	809	171	314	16	11	359	129	+22	-0	+6	+2	+14	4.5
2018	34	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	680	597	160	36	1	25	77	128	3	0	0	268	355	457	812	189	302	19	11	361	130	+24	+0	+8	+2	+15	5.1
2018	34	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	680	596	159	37	1	23	78	128	3	0	0	267	355	448	802	181	304	19	11	356	130	+24	+0	+8	+2	+15	5.1
2019	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	69	66	13	2	0	2	3	17	0	0	0	197	232	318	550	121	234	25	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	69	64	15	2	0	2	5	14	0	0	0	234	290	359	649	125	271	20	7	292	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	37	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	512	458	112	27	0	15	48	108	2	0	0	245	319	402	721	157	286	21	9	323	105	+3	+0	-2	+2	+11	1.4
2021	37	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	512	457	112	28	0	14	49	108	2	0	0	245	321	398	719	153	289	21	10	320	105	+3	+0	-2	+2	+11	1.4
2022	38	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	205	187	36	5	0	5	16	44	0	1	0	193	256	299	556	107	221	21	8	244	51	-12	+0	-1	-4	+4	-1.2
2022	38	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	205	186	36	5	0	5	17	43	0	1	0	194	261	301	562	108	221	21	8	255	51	-12	+0	-1	-4	+4	-1.2
2006	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	438	399	88	17	5	3	34	92	2	2	2	221	288	311	599	90	270	21	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	585	522	138	41	8	11	54	110	4	5	4	264	339	437	776	172	310	19	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	540	478	117	37	5	7	56	120	1	2	0	245	331	387	718	142	306	22	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	159	142	22	5	0	5	15	36	1	0	0	155	244	296	539	141	157	23	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	214	185	52	15	0	10	26	30	1	2	1	281	371	524	895	243	293	14	12	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	333	82	16	4	6	22	61	2	1	1	246	300	372	673	126	294	17	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	387	339	82	17	0	16	43	65	2	2	0	242	330	434	763	192	257	17	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	662	608	176	44	2	16	47	91	2	1	0	289	344	447	791	158	319	14	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	566	510	125	28	3	7	46	79	5	0	0	245	315	353	668	108	281	14	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	278	249	53	14	0	9	23	46	4	1	0	213	290	378	667	165	232	17	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	369	339	89	12	1	2	26	65	1	0	0	263	318	322	639	59	316	18	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	645	567	156	47	3	15	71	100	2	0	1	275	357	448	805	173	314	16	11	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	680	595	160	36	1	25	77	128	3	0	0	269	355	459	813	190	304	19	11	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	69	66	13	2	0	2	3	17	0	0	0	197	232	318	550	121	228	25	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	37	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	512	457	112	27	0	15	48	108	2	0	0	245	319	403	722	158	289	21	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	38	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	205	187	36	5	0	5	16	44	0	1	0	193	256	299	556	107	217	21	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5188	4608	1185	292	17	121	502	891	24	8	3	257	333	407	740	150	292	17	10	329	104	+53	+0	+25	+35	+112	23.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	149	37	2	15	63	112	3	1	0	258	334	407	742	149	294	17	10	329	104	+7	+0	+3	+4	+14	2.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6669	5954	1501	363	32	154	607	1192	32	17	9	252	325	401	726	149	288	18	9	321	104	+53	+0	+25	+35	+112	23.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	146	35	3	15	59	116	3	2	1	252	323	400	723	148	288	18	9	321	104	+7	+0	+3	+4	+14	2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 21 PAwOBA .424 → .306 (−118)K% 19.0% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	22.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.52%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.995	×0.930	—	×0.940	23.42%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.088	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷1.075	×0.700	—	×0.940	8.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 38 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .424 → .306; ISO .316 → .192; BABIP .308 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASyracuse Mets · 48 PAwOBA .314 → .244 (−69)K% 25.0% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.966	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.042	×0.930	—	×0.940	20.98%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷1.060	×0.830	—	×0.940	2.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×0.940	5.14%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 104, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .314 → .244; ISO .159 → .126; BABIP .300 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+St. Lucie Mets · 21 PAwOBA .218 → .175 (−43)K% 9.5% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.52%	÷0.917	×1.420	—	—	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷0.975	×0.750	—	×0.940	3.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.048	×0.920	—	×0.940	13.76%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.978	×0.960	—	×0.940	5.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.062	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.122	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 112, K 83, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .218 → .175; ISO .050 → .044; BABIP .222 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 15 PAwOBA .248 → .202 (−47)K% 13.3% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%
HBP% /PA	6.67%	—	×0.870	—	×0.940	5.45%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.022	×0.920	—	×0.940	14.10%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.963	×0.840	—	×0.940	6.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .248 → .202; ISO .071 → .057; BABIP .250 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 19 PAwOBA .474 → .402 (−72)K% 5.3% → 6.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.26%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	6.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.025	×0.930	—	×1.003	17.07%
Doubles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.007	×0.830	—	×1.003	20.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.840	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .474 → .402; ISO .235 → .199; BABIP .438 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 17 PAwOBA .457 → .407 (−49)K% 23.5% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	28.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.037	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.98%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.016	×0.930	—	×1.018	8.47%
Doubles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.030	×0.830	—	×1.018	22.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.898	×0.840	—	×1.018	8.65%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .457 → .407; ISO .400 → .370; BABIP .364 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 83 PAwOBA .301 → .252 (−49)K% 15.7% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.66%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.66%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	11.16%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.17%
Singles /BIP	10.91%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	9.96%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	4.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.73%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .301 → .252; ISO .176 → .157; BABIP .170 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 234 PAwOBA .347 → .304 (−43)K% 18.4% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.39%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.65%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	9.03%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	7.46%
Triples /BIP	1.29%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	2.84%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .304; ISO .167 → .151; BABIP .310 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).