Cade Smith — OGILVIE

Cade Smith P Cleveland Guardians

+2.4 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.1 · 2026

ERA2.49

FIP2.53

xFIP3.25

SIERA2.91

K%32.6%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%26.0%

IP74

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

SL+0.9 (11%)

FB-2.7 (61%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Lake County Captains	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	28.2%	14.0%	2.4%	3.98	3.82	+0.5
2022	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	30.2%	15.1%	0.5%	2.93	2.71	+1.6
2023	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	30.2%	10.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.46	+1.1
2024	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	35.6%	5.9%	0.3%	1.91	1.01	+3.5
2025	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	34.7%	5.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.55	+2.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	10	0	10	45	11	2	1	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	12	12	64	271	89	18	5	32.9%	6.5%	2.0%	2.32	2.61	+1.7
2026 Total	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	74	316	100	20	6	31.7%	6.2%	2.0%	2.61	2.26	+2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	CLE	13	13	73	309	97	20	6	31.3%	6.3%	2.0%	2.63	2.75	+1.9
2028	29	MLB	CLE	13	13	72	302	93	19	6	30.8%	6.4%	2.1%	2.75	2.83	+1.8
2029	30	MLB	CLE	13	13	69	293	89	19	6	30.2%	6.5%	2.1%	2.85	2.92	+1.7
2030	31	MLB	CLE	12	12	67	283	84	19	6	29.7%	6.6%	2.2%	2.95	3.02	+1.5
2031	32	MLB	CLE	12	12	64	271	79	18	6	29.0%	6.8%	2.3%	3.06	3.14	+1.3
2032	33	MLB	CLE	11	11	61	259	74	18	6	28.4%	7.0%	2.4%	3.18	3.27	+1.2
2033	34	MLB	CLE	58	—	58	246	68	18	6	27.7%	7.2%	2.5%	3.32	3.41	+1.0
2034	35	MLB	CLE	55	—	55	232	62	17	6	26.9%	7.4%	2.6%	3.46	3.56	+0.9
2035	36	MLB	CLE	51	—	51	217	57	17	6	26.2%	7.6%	2.7%	3.62	3.72	+0.7
2036	37	MLB	CLE	48	—	48	201	51	16	6	25.4%	7.9%	2.8%	3.78	3.89	+0.6
2037	38	MLB	CLE	44	—	44	185	45	15	5	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	3.96	4.08	+0.4
2038	39	MLB	CLE	40	—	40	170	40	14	5	23.6%	8.5%	3.1%	4.15	4.27	+0.3
2039	40	MLB	CLE	37	—	37	157	36	14	5	22.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.33	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			284	0	326	1342	428	128	19	31.9%	9.5%	1.4%	3.09	2.39	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—			174	0	200	823	263	79	12	31.9%	9.5%	1.4%	3.09	2.39	+6.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.61	32.9%	6.5%	2.0%	—	2.83	30.8%	24.4%	214	+0.22	—	—	—
Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 2.33 FIP	27	SW	2.33	24.6%	4.6%	1.3%	.262	3.36	28.3%	21.6%	167	+1.03	2.33	318	80
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	27	SW	2.83	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.89	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.83	363	78
Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 2.79 FIP	27	SW	2.79	25.8%	4.0%	2.5%	.337	2.29	32.4%	25.9%	198	-0.50	0.60	495	77
Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 2.88 FIP	27	SW	2.88	23.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.301	3.29	22.1%	14.0%	200	+0.41	2.41	343	74
Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	30.1%	8.5%	1.5%	.284	3.30	30.3%	23.6%	162	+0.84	1.32	765	72
Chad Green R 2026 · 2.53 FIP	27	SW	2.53	31.5%	4.4%	2.8%	.302	3.23	32.2%	26.6%	178	+0.70	1.78	763	72
Mike Broadway R 2027 · 1.74 FIP	28	SW	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	71
Shawn Tolleson R 2026 · 3.07 FIP	27	SW	3.07	25.5%	4.0%	2.9%	.284	4.76	17.3%	12.5%	36	+1.69	3.07	109	71
Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	27	SW	3.06	24.7%	6.3%	2.3%	.279	3.45	28.4%	22.2%	158	+0.39	2.19	545	71
Justin Miller R 2027 · 2.67 FIP	28	SW	2.67	27.6%	8.0%	1.6%	.248	4.17	22.1%	14.7%	153	+1.50	2.67	279	70
Drew Storen R 2026 · 2.26 FIP	27	SW	2.26	29.4%	6.1%	1.6%	.287	3.79	20.3%	13.9%	106	+1.53	2.26	172	70
Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	27	SW	2.91	25.0%	3.3%	2.7%	.329	1.97	39.9%	32.2%	53	-0.94	1.95	368	69
Josh Lueke R 2029 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	69
James Hoyt R 2027 · 1.61 FIP	28	SU	1.61	27.5%	4.5%	0.5%	.348	2.84	32.0%	23.9%	171	+1.23	1.61	312	69
Luke Barker R 2026 · 2.74 FIP	27	SW	2.74	25.8%	7.5%	1.6%	.159	3.59	27.4%	22.0%	86	+0.85	2.74	261	68
Nick Anderson R 2026 · 1.89 FIP	27	SW	1.89	22.7%	5.6%	0.0%	.241	2.53	37.9%	31.8%	141	+0.64	0.98	394	68
Robert Suarez R 2023 · 1.95 FIP	24	SU	1.95	23.2%	4.0%	0.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	1.95	257	67
Josh Fields R 2028 · 1.85 FIP	29	SW	1.85	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.33	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.48	1.85	238	67
Wade Davis R 2028 · 2.12 FIP	29	SW	2.12	31.1%	7.6%	1.2%	.199	2.93	30.0%	19.8%	167	+0.81	2.00	320	66
Drew Steckenrider R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	27	SW	3.40	27.2%	8.1%	2.9%	.284	3.87	22.1%	16.0%	82	+0.47	2.62	392	66

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$17M	+$16M
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$16M	+$11M
2028	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$15M	+$8M
2029	Arb-3	$10M	+1.7	$15M	+$5M
Totals		$23M		$63M	+$40M