Cade Smith — OGILVIE

Cade Smith P Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7364vR 56

ERA2.10

FIP1.94

K%35.1%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%29.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL6060

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p9034.0%

p9035.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

SL+0.9 (11%)

FB-2.7 (64%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.7M
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$12M	+$7M
2029	Arb-3	$7M	+1.4	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$16M		$35M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	0%	1.3	28.2%	14.0%	14.1%	2.4%	3.98	3.84	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	0%	1.3	38.2%	11.8%	26.4%	1.7%	3.98	2.31	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	0%	1.4	30.2%	15.1%	15.1%	0.5%	2.93	2.71	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	0%	1.4	38.1%	13.5%	24.6%	0.4%	2.93	1.80	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	2.8%	4.02	3.44	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	2.8%	4.02	3.44	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	35.2%	10.0%	25.2%	2.6%	4.02	2.81	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.03	+3.2
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.03	+3.2
2024	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.22	+3.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.58	+2.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.58	+2.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.63	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			212	0	215	858	302	54	10	0%	1.0	35.2%	6.3%	28.9%	1.2%	2.34	1.65	+7.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	62	0	66	269	95	21	5	0%	1.1	35.3%	7.8%	27.5%	1.9%	2.18	2.13	+1.9
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	62	0	66	269	95	21	5	0%	1.1	35.3%	7.8%	27.5%	1.9%	2.18	2.13	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	CLE	62	0	66	269	95	21	5	0%	1.1	35.3%	7.8%	27.5%	1.9%	2.18	2.13	+1.9
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CLE	62	0	66	269	95	21	5	0%	1.1	35.3%	7.8%	27.5%	1.9%	2.18	2.13	+1.9
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	6	0	6	25	9	1	0	0%	1.0	35.1%	5.9%	29.2%	1.9%	2.10	1.94	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CLE	6	0	6	25	9	2	0	0%	1.0	35.1%	5.9%	29.2%	1.9%	2.10	1.94	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	72	294	104	22	5	—	—	35.3%	7.6%	27.7%	1.9%	2.18	2.11	+2.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	72	303	104	22	5	—	—	34.2%	7.4%	26.8%	1.8%	2.18	2.14	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	69	0	72	304	106	18	6	0%	1.0	35.0%	6.1%	28.9%	2.0%	2.43	2.40	+2.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	69	290	100	18	6	0%	1.0	34.4%	6.3%	28.1%	2.2%	2.51	2.56	+1.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	273	92	18	6	0%	1.0	33.7%	6.6%	27.1%	2.4%	2.66	2.77	+1.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	65	0	68	287	100	17	6	0%	1.0	35.0%	6.1%	28.9%	2.0%	2.43	2.40	+1.9
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	62	0	65	274	94	17	6	0%	1.0	34.4%	6.3%	28.1%	2.2%	2.51	2.56	+1.7
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	58	0	61	258	87	17	6	0%	1.1	33.7%	6.6%	27.1%	2.4%	2.66	2.77	+1.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		404	0	416	1707	594	107	28	0%	1.0	34.8%	6.3%	28.5%	1.7%	2.43	1.87	+13.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	821	286	51	13	0%	1.0	34.8%	6.3%	28.5%	1.7%	2.43	1.87	+6.5
Career	—	MLE		336	0	382	1566	509	144	23	0%	1.1	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.5%	2.90	2.34	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	0	200	820	266	76	12	0%	1.1	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.5%	2.90	2.34	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.16	34.9%	4.5%	1.9%	—	2.57	34.4%	28.1%	206	+0.41	—	—	—
Chad Green R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	27	SU	2.54	31.5%	4.4%	2.8%	.302	3.20	32.2%	26.6%	178	+0.66	1.77	763	76
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.86	196	72
Raisel Iglesias R 2017 · 2.47 FIP	27	SU	2.47	30.1%	8.5%	1.5%	.284	3.30	30.3%	23.6%	162	+0.83	1.34	820	72
David Bednar R 2022 · 2.30 FIP	27	SU	2.30	32.9%	6.7%	2.1%	.309	2.75	28.6%	21.2%	188	+0.45	1.66	573	70
Zach McAllister R 2015 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.88	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.82	363	70
Corey Knebel R 2018 · 2.66 FIP	26	SU	2.66	39.5%	9.9%	3.0%	.292	3.81	27.8%	18.2%	39	+1.15	2.11	323	69
Héctor Neris R 2016 · 2.92 FIP	27	SU	2.92	31.1%	8.2%	2.6%	.263	3.16	32.0%	24.1%	209	+0.24	2.03	682	69
Tommy Kahnle R 2017 · 1.53 FIP	27	SU	1.53	37.5%	6.2%	1.5%	.350	3.20	32.7%	22.7%	109	+1.67	1.53	458	68
Craig Kimbrel R 2015 · 2.48 FIP	27	SU	2.48	36.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.272	2.13	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.35	0.94	601	68
Liam Hendriks R 2016 · 2.74 FIP	27	SU	2.74	25.8%	4.0%	2.4%	.337	2.36	32.4%	25.9%	198	-0.38	0.63	495	67
Josh Fields R 2015 · 1.90 FIP	29	SU	1.90	32.1%	7.7%	1.0%	.298	3.23	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.33	1.90	238	67
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.59	308	67
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	66
Alex Colomé R 2016 · 2.73 FIP	27	SU	2.73	31.4%	6.2%	2.7%	.274	3.28	22.8%	15.9%	196	+0.55	2.72	530	65
Drew Storen R 2015 · 2.36 FIP	27	SU	2.36	29.4%	6.1%	1.8%	.287	3.78	20.3%	13.9%	106	+1.42	2.36	172	65
Cody Allen R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	27	SU	3.18	33.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.229	4.17	29.4%	19.2%	157	+0.99	1.58	295	65
Wade Davis R 2015 · 2.14 FIP	29	SU	2.14	31.1%	7.6%	1.3%	.199	2.93	30.0%	19.8%	167	+0.79	2.00	320	65
Héctor Rondón R 2015 · 2.42 FIP	27	SU	2.42	24.6%	4.6%	1.5%	.262	3.39	28.3%	21.6%	167	+0.97	2.42	318	64
Matt Barnes R 2017 · 3.27 FIP	27	SU	3.27	28.9%	9.8%	2.5%	.296	3.03	36.3%	24.3%	149	-0.24	2.54	495	64
Mike Broadway R 2015 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	70	34.5%	5.8%	0.82	2.47
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23