Cade Smith

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	25	MLBCLE	74	75	1.91	1.22	35.6%	5.9%	3.0
2025	26	MLBCLE	76	74	2.93	1.63	34.7%	5.3%	2.6
2026	27	MLBCLE	69	74	1.95	1.98	36.3%	7.5%	2.3
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	70	73	2.33	2.30	35.8%	5.4%	2.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCLE	63	66	2.41	2.46	35.2%	5.6%	1.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCLE	60	63	2.56	2.67	34.5%	5.9%	1.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$4M2028Arb-2$6M2029Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form0.75 ERA (proj 2.33) · K 39.8% (proj 35.8%) · BB 9.7% (proj 5.4%) · last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsDellin Betances (age 28) · Ken Giles (age 28) · Greg Holland (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7567vR 59

ERA2.33

FIP2.30

K%35.8%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%30.4%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL6060

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p9034.5%

p9036.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.261

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$17M	+$13M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.8	$13M	+$8M
2029	Arb-3	$7M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$17M		$40M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	0%	1.3	28.2%	14.0%	14.1%	2.4%	3.98	3.84	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	0%	1.3	38.2%	11.8%	26.4%	1.7%	3.98	2.31	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	0%	1.4	30.2%	15.1%	15.1%	0.5%	2.93	2.71	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	0%	1.4	38.1%	13.5%	24.6%	0.4%	2.93	1.80	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	29.7%	9.7%	20.1%	2.8%	4.02	3.38	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	35.2%	10.0%	25.2%	2.6%	4.02	2.81	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.03	+3.2
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.03	+3.2
2024	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.22	+3.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.58	+2.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.58	+2.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.63	+2.6
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	69	0	74	295	107	22	5	0%	1.1	36.3%	7.5%	28.8%	1.7%	1.95	1.91	+2.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	69	0	74	295	107	22	5	0%	1.1	36.3%	7.5%	28.8%	1.7%	1.95	1.91	+2.4
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	69	0	74	295	107	22	5	0%	1.1	36.3%	7.5%	28.8%	1.7%	1.95	1.98	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			219	0	223	884	314	55	10	0%	1.0	35.5%	6.2%	29.3%	1.1%	2.26	1.61	+7.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	70	0	73	308	110	17	7	0%	1.0	35.8%	5.4%	30.4%	2.1%	2.33	2.30	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	67	0	70	296	104	17	7	0%	1.0	35.2%	5.6%	29.6%	2.3%	2.41	2.46	+1.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	63	0	66	278	96	16	7	0%	1.0	34.5%	5.9%	28.6%	2.5%	2.56	2.67	+1.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	58	0	61	258	87	16	7	0%	1.1	33.8%	6.3%	27.5%	2.7%	2.76	2.90	+1.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	63	0	66	279	98	16	6	0%	1.0	35.2%	5.6%	29.6%	2.3%	2.41	2.46	+1.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	60	0	63	266	92	16	7	0%	1.1	34.5%	5.9%	28.6%	2.5%	2.56	2.67	+1.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	55	0	58	245	83	15	7	0%	1.1	33.8%	6.3%	27.5%	2.7%	2.76	2.90	+1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		397	0	410	1674	587	102	29	0%	1.0	35.1%	6.1%	29.0%	1.8%	2.40	1.87	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	816	286	50	14	0%	1.0	35.1%	6.1%	29.0%	1.8%	2.40	1.87	+6.5
Career	—	MLE		343	0	390	1592	523	145	23	0%	1.1	32.8%	9.1%	23.7%	1.5%	2.84	2.28	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	0	200	816	268	75	12	0%	1.1	32.8%	9.1%	23.7%	1.5%	2.84	2.28	+5.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 41 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.52 (+0.42)K% 37.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.08%	—	×0.860	31.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×0.900	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷1.037	×1.100	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 22 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.09 (+0.82)K% 31.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.52%	—	×0.810	25.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.78%	—	×1.100	10.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.909	×1.200	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 37 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.98 (+0.80)K% 35.3% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.26%	—	×0.810	28.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.46%	—	×1.100	14.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.014	×1.200	0.76%

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 24 IPFIP 1.23 → 2.31 (+1.08)K% 42.3% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.31%	—	×0.770	32.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.46%	—	×1.150	15.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.134	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 1.23 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALynchburg Hillcats · 40 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.84 (+1.47)K% 38.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.740	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.180	14.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.950	×1.300	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.30	35.8%	5.4%	2.1%	—	2.67	34.6%	28.6%	197	+0.37	—	—	—
Dellin Betances R 2016 · 1.59 FIP	28	SU	1.59	42.1%	9.4%	1.6%	.350	2.26	40.4%	27.8%	126	+0.67	1.21	398	73
Ken Giles R 2019 · 2.02 FIP	28	SU	2.02	39.9%	7.7%	2.4%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	0.92	414	71
Greg Holland R 2014 · 1.73 FIP	28	SU	1.73	37.5%	8.3%	1.4%	.268	3.31	27.9%	16.2%	102	+1.58	1.23	543	70
Chad Green R 2019 · 2.85 FIP	28	SW	2.85	33.2%	6.4%	3.2%	.333	3.35	30.8%	25.4%	124	+0.50	1.77	763	70
Héctor Rondón R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	28	SU	3.44	29.0%	4.0%	4.2%	.270	3.83	24.8%	17.0%	177	+0.39	2.21	436	69
Emilio Pagán R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	28	SU	3.17	36.0%	4.5%	4.6%	.224	4.53	28.1%	20.0%	148	+1.36	2.67	724	68
Eric Gagne R 2004 · 1.73 FIP	28	SU	1.73	35.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.255	2.95	26.8%	18.1%	65	+1.22	0.42	642	68
Richard Rodríguez R 2018 · 2.23 FIP	28	SU	2.23	31.5%	5.7%	1.9%	.294	4.19	22.0%	16.7%	153	+1.96	2.23	545	67
Brad Lidge R 2005 · 2.01 FIP	28	SU	2.01	35.4%	7.6%	1.7%	.329	2.96	30.9%	21.2%	211	+0.95	1.56	595	67
Joel Hanrahan R 2010 · 2.56 FIP	28	SU	2.56	34.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.321	3.22	24.2%	14.9%	128	+0.66	2.08	397	67
Tyler Duffey R 2019 · 2.45 FIP	28	SU	2.45	34.8%	6.3%	2.7%	.273	3.55	24.4%	15.5%	141	+1.10	2.27	803	67
Octavio Dotel R 2002 · 2.31 FIP	28	SU	2.31	31.4%	6.6%	1.9%	.226	3.28	30.6%	22.2%	188	+0.97	2.03	946	66
Matt Barnes R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	28	SU	2.54	36.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.313	3.21	37.0%	26.1%	142	+0.67	2.54	495	65
Ryan Walker R 2024 · 2.05 FIP	28	SU	2.05	32.1%	5.5%	1.8%	.241	3.65	19.6%	12.2%	130	+1.60	2.05	436	65
Cody Allen R 2017 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	32.6%	7.4%	3.2%	.300	5.02	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.98	1.58	464	64
Brian Wilson R 2010 · 2.00 FIP	28	SU	2.00	29.9%	6.8%	1.0%	.304	3.33	22.2%	9.4%	55	+1.33	2.00	366	64
Josh Fields R 2014 · 1.80 FIP	28	SU	1.80	30.3%	6.1%	0.9%	.331	2.78	28.2%	21.6%	172	+0.98	1.80	330	63
John Axford R 2011 · 2.40 FIP	28	SU	2.40	28.2%	7.9%	1.2%	.288	4.03	26.2%	15.2%	189	+1.63	1.90	518	62
Sergio Santos R 2011 · 2.53 FIP	28	SU	2.53	35.4%	9.2%	2.3%	.254	3.13	29.4%	21.4%	47	+0.60	1.36	178	62
Félix Bautista R 2023 · 1.50 FIP	28	SU	1.50	46.4%	11.0%	1.7%	.268	3.29	35.2%	19.0%	35	+1.79	1.50	334	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	70	35.2%	6.2%	0.71	2.39
Ken Giles ('22)	1.8	59	33.3%	7.8%	0.71	2.71
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Billy Wagner ('10)	4.5	65	33.2%	8.3%	0.82	2.31
Tom Henke ('82-'95, 25 WAR*)	3.9	66	35.9%*	7.7%*	0.93*	2.72*
Bryan Harvey ('87-'94, 12 WAR*)	1.9	64	37.8%*	8.9%*	0.94*	2.59*
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*