Cade Smith — OGILVIE

Cade Smith P Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7263vR 54

ERA2.01

FIP1.87

K%34.9%

BB%4.8%

K-BB%30.1%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL6060

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p9034.0%

p9034.8%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

SL+0.9 (13%)

FB-2.7 (62%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$11M	+$6M
2029	Arb-3	$8M	+1.3	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$41M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	0%	1.3	28.2%	14.0%	14.1%	2.6%	3.98	3.91	—
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	33	0	43	178	68	21	3	0%	1.3	38.2%	11.8%	26.4%	1.7%	3.98	2.31	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	0%	1.4	30.2%	15.1%	15.1%	0.4%	2.93	2.71	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	44	0	61	260	99	35	1	0%	1.4	38.1%	13.5%	24.6%	0.4%	2.93	1.80	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	30.2%	10.7%	19.5%	2.8%	4.02	3.45	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	47	0	63	270	95	27	7	0%	1.3	35.2%	10.0%	25.2%	2.6%	4.02	2.81	—
2024	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.03	+3.4
2024	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	75	289	103	17	1	0%	1.0	35.6%	5.9%	29.8%	0.3%	1.91	1.22	+3.2
2025	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.58	+2.8
2025	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	76	0	74	300	104	16	4	0%	1.0	34.7%	5.3%	29.3%	1.3%	2.93	1.63	+2.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	42	0	44	181	63	10	4	0%	1.1	34.8%	5.5%	29.3%	2.2%	2.84	2.07	+1.3
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	28	0	30	126	44	6	3	0%	1.1	34.9%	4.8%	30.1%	2.0%	2.01	1.87	+0.9
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	29	0	30	127	44	6	3	0%	1.0	34.9%	4.8%	30.1%	2.0%	2.01	1.87	+0.9
2026 TOT	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	74	307	107	16	7	—	—	34.8%	5.2%	29.6%	2.1%	2.51	1.99	+2.5
2026 FULL	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	74	313	107	16	7	—	—	34.2%	5.1%	29.0%	2.1%	2.51	2.01	+2.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CLE	69	0	72	304	106	15	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	4.9%	29.9%	2.1%	2.35	2.33	+2.1
2028	29	MLB	CLE	66	0	69	290	99	15	7	0%	1.0	34.2%	5.1%	29.1%	2.3%	2.43	2.49	+1.8
2029	30	MLB	CLE	62	0	65	273	91	15	7	0%	1.0	33.5%	5.4%	28.1%	2.5%	2.59	2.70	+1.5
2027	28	MLB	CLE	65	0	68	287	100	14	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	4.9%	29.9%	2.1%	2.35	2.33	+1.9
2028	29	MLB	CLE	62	0	65	274	94	14	6	0%	1.0	34.2%	5.1%	29.1%	2.3%	2.43	2.49	+1.6
2029	30	MLB	CLE	58	0	61	258	86	14	6	0%	1.1	33.5%	5.4%	28.1%	2.5%	2.59	2.70	+1.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			406	0	418	1720	596	91	30	0%	1.0	34.6%	5.3%	29.3%	1.8%	2.45	1.82	+17.5
/ 200 IP	—			194	0	200	822	285	43	14	0%	1.0	34.6%	5.3%	29.3%	1.8%	2.45	1.82	+8.4
Career	—			316	0	360	1478	480	136	22	0%	1.1	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.5%	3.02	2.35	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—			175	0	200	820	267	75	12	0%	1.1	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.5%	3.02	2.35	+7.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.15	35.0%	4.4%	2.0%	—	2.50	34.2%	29.0%	206	+0.35	—	—	—
Chad Green R 2026 · 2.53 FIP	27	SU	2.53	31.5%	4.4%	2.8%	.302	3.19	32.2%	26.6%	178	+0.66	1.75	763	72
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.91	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.09	2.82	363	69
David Bednar R 2026 · 2.23 FIP	27	SU	2.23	32.9%	6.7%	1.9%	.309	2.69	28.6%	21.2%	188	+0.46	1.66	550	67
Josh Lueke R 2029 · 2.50 FIP	30	SU	2.50	30.0%	4.1%	2.6%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	107	66
Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.62 FIP	27	SU	2.62	36.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.272	2.09	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.53	0.89	599	66
Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 2.49 FIP	27	SU	2.49	30.1%	8.5%	1.6%	.284	3.35	30.3%	23.6%	162	+0.86	1.35	797	66
Trevor Rosenthal R 2026 · 2.00 FIP	27	SU	2.00	37.6%	9.9%	1.5%	.330	3.28	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.28	1.98	196	66
Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 1.52 FIP	27	SU	1.52	37.5%	6.2%	1.5%	.350	3.18	32.7%	22.7%	109	+1.66	1.52	452	66
Héctor Neris R 2026 · 2.97 FIP	27	SU	2.97	31.1%	8.2%	2.6%	.263	3.22	32.0%	24.1%	209	+0.25	1.97	682	65
Josh Fields R 2028 · 1.86 FIP	29	SU	1.86	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.39	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.53	1.86	238	65
Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 2.68 FIP	27	SU	2.68	25.8%	4.0%	2.3%	.337	2.31	32.4%	25.9%	198	-0.37	0.60	495	65
Drew Storen R 2026 · 2.36 FIP	27	SU	2.36	29.4%	6.1%	1.8%	.287	3.81	20.3%	13.9%	106	+1.45	2.36	172	64
Dellin Betances R 2026 · 2.14 FIP	27	SU	2.14	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.01	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.58	308	64
Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 2.37 FIP	27	SU	2.37	24.6%	4.6%	1.4%	.262	3.28	28.3%	21.6%	167	+0.91	2.37	318	64
Wade Davis R 2028 · 2.14 FIP	29	SU	2.14	31.1%	7.6%	1.3%	.199	2.82	30.0%	19.8%	167	+0.68	2.00	320	63
James Hoyt R 2027 · 1.60 FIP	28	SU	1.60	27.5%	4.5%	0.5%	.348	2.77	32.0%	23.9%	171	+1.17	1.60	312	63
Adam Ottavino R 2029 · 2.35 FIP	30	SU	2.35	32.7%	6.5%	2.1%	.242	2.94	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.59	1.99	488	63
Corey Knebel R 2025 · 2.81 FIP	26	SU	2.81	39.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.292	3.99	27.8%	18.2%	39	+1.18	2.20	323	63
Mike Broadway R 2027 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.47	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.73	1.74	195	63
Cole Sands R 2026 · 2.28 FIP	27	SU	2.28	29.1%	4.1%	2.0%	.280	3.44	21.5%	15.5%	84	+1.16	2.28	473	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4	70	34.4%	4.9%	0.85	2.41
Roberto Osuna ('19)	5	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75
Ken Giles ('19)	5	60	32.6%	7.6%	0.75	2.89
Liam Hendriks ('22)	8	57	32.7%	5.7%	0.85	2.94
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	3	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Will Harris ('19)	5	59	27.0%	6.2%	0.82	2.36
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	5	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61