Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 1.46 | 2.09 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 1.46 | 2.13 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 37 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 0.5% | 3.36 | 2.65 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 37 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 5.7% | 19.0% | 0.4% | 3.36 | 1.96 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.2% | 6.7% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.65 | 3.28 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.2% | 4.9% | 27.3% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 2.09 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 53 | 242 | 65 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 3.74 | 3.24 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 53 | 242 | 65 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 0.4% | 3.74 | 2.42 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 16 | 82 | 337 | 101 | 32 | 8 | 25% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 19.5% | 2.6% | 2.64 | 3.27 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 16 | 82 | 337 | 101 | 32 | 8 | 25% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 9.5% | 20.5% | 2.4% | 2.64 | 3.08 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 76 | 1 | 80 | 308 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 1% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 5.5% | 26.6% | 1.8% | 1.91 | 2.05 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 76 | 1 | 80 | 308 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 1% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 5.5% | 26.6% | 1.6% | 1.91 | 2.08 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 61 | 266 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 6.0% | 16.5% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 2.85 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 61 | 266 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 6.0% | 16.5% | 1.5% | 4.11 | 2.77 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 36 | 0 | 37 | 169 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 6.38 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 16 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 3.38 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SF | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 3.38 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 54 | 242 | 43 | 23 | 7 | — | — | 17.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SF | — | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 23 | 7 | — | — | 23.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 6.70 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 58 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 57 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 7.0% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SF | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 53 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 7.0% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 48 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SF | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 388 | 14 | 406 | 1708 | 416 | 124 | 42 | 4% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 7.2% | 17.1% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.32 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 7 | 200 | 842 | 205 | 61 | 21 | 4% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 7.2% | 17.1% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 378 | 17 | 433 | 1824 | 446 | 147 | 32 | 4% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | 3.34 | 3.03 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 8 | 200 | 842 | 206 | 68 | 15 | 4% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | 3.34 | 3.03 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Walker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.22 | 26.1% | 5.6% | 2.2% | — | 4.21 | 21.4% | 14.0% | 168 | +0.99 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 74 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2029 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 74 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 74 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.96 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | .251 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 17.4% | 50 | +0.68 | 2.96 | 230 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.82 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 1.0% | .275 | 4.46 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 108 | +1.64 | 2.40 | 617 | 73 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 73 |
| Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 73 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 2.75 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.75 | 22.2% | 6.8% | 1.2% | .222 | 4.88 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 43 | +2.13 | 2.75 | 114 | 72 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.34 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 2.0% | .264 | 3.21 | 22.1% | 16.9% | 62 | -0.13 | 2.67 | 333 | 72 |
| Matt Albers R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 1.07 | 3.89 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |