Ryan Walker — OGILVIE

Ryan Walker P San Francisco Giants

+1.3 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.2 · 2026

ERA3.21

FIP3.33

xFIP4.10

SIERA3.84

K%25.9%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%19.1%

IP65

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2026

K†6060

FB+0.9 (69%)

SL (31%)

SI (69%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	22	A+	San Jose Giants	8	0	12	50	12	4	0	—	—	—	1.46	—	—
2019	23	A	Augusta GreenJackets	37	0	59	247	61	14	1	18.3%	6.7%	0.5%	3.36	2.67	+1.5
2021	25	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	39	0	49	205	66	10	4	25.2%	6.7%	2.8%	3.65	3.37	+0.9
2022	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	53	242	65	27	1	22.2%	12.9%	0.6%	3.74	3.21	+1.0
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	64	16	82	337	101	32	8	29.2%	9.6%	2.3%	2.64	3.13	+1.9
2024	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	76	1	80	308	99	17	5	32.1%	5.5%	1.8%	1.91	2.08	+2.8
2025	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	68	0	61	266	60	16	4	22.6%	6.0%	1.5%	4.11	2.79	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	8	0	7	30	8	3	1	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
ROS	30	MLB	SF	58	—	58	244	63	17	5	25.9%	6.8%	2.2%	3.08	3.37	+1.0
2026 Total	30	MLB	SF	—	—	65	274	71	20	6	26.0%	7.2%	2.3%	3.16	3.01	+1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	SF	11	11	63	264	67	19	6	25.4%	7.2%	2.3%	3.37	3.53	+1.0
2028	32	MLB	SF	11	11	60	254	63	19	6	24.8%	7.4%	2.4%	3.53	3.64	+0.9
2029	33	MLB	SF	57	—	57	242	59	18	6	24.1%	7.5%	2.5%	3.68	3.77	+0.8
2030	34	MLB	SF	54	—	54	230	54	18	6	23.4%	7.7%	2.6%	3.82	3.91	+0.6
2031	35	MLB	SF	51	—	51	217	49	17	6	22.7%	8.0%	2.7%	3.97	4.06	+0.5
2032	36	MLB	SF	48	—	48	203	45	17	6	21.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.12	4.23	+0.4
2033	37	MLB	SF	45	—	45	188	40	16	6	21.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.29	4.40	+0.3
2034	38	MLB	SF	41	—	41	173	35	15	5	20.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.59	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			350	17	404	1685	428	134	27	25.4%	8.0%	1.6%	3.08	2.84	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—			173	8	200	835	212	66	13	25.4%	8.0%	1.6%	3.08	2.84	+5.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Walker (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.37	25.9%	6.8%	2.2%	—	3.64	24.8%	17.4%	180	+0.27	—	—	—
Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	76
Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	76
Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.05 FIP	32	SW	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.28	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.23	2.56	144	75
Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP	32	SW	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.68	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.49	2.89	326	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	74
Matt Bush R 2026 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	73
Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.97 FIP	30	SW	2.97	22.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.251	4.16	22.0%	17.4%	50	+1.19	2.97	230	73
Chad Gaudin R 2029 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	73
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	73
Jeff Manship R 2026 · 2.82 FIP	30	SW	2.82	22.2%	6.8%	1.4%	.222	4.63	19.0%	8.4%	43	+1.81	2.82	114	72
Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	72
Luis García R 2026 · 2.73 FIP	30	SW	2.73	20.3%	7.1%	0.8%	.275	4.41	22.4%	12.3%	108	+1.68	2.26	602	72
Josh Fields R 2026 · 2.48 FIP	30	SW	2.48	26.2%	5.9%	1.5%	.341	4.62	23.5%	16.5%	123	+2.14	1.85	238	72
Austin Adams R 2025 · 3.28 FIP	29	SW	3.28	21.1%	6.1%	2.1%	.376	5.85	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.57	3.28	162	71
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	71
Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	30	SW	3.34	20.5%	7.0%	2.0%	.264	3.27	22.1%	16.9%	62	-0.07	2.67	333	71
Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.34 FIP	32	SW	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.67	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.33	2.57	251	71
Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP	29	SW	3.81	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.32	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.51	2.26	172	71

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.2M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.0	$8M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$22M	+$12M