Félix Bautista
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 31
RHP
6'8" / 285 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA3.04
FIP3.80
xFIP3.35
SIERA3.53
K%31.8%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%19.2%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF7070
CTRL2020
CMD6060
K†8080
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p9035.7%
K%
p9035.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.264
FB+2.9 (62%)
SL+0.6 (9%)
SI (62%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | DSL Orioles | 15 | 14 | 67 | 279 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 18.3% | 9.9% | 0.5% | 2.01 | 3.08 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 12 | 1 | 27 | 111 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 1.3% | 4.33 | 3.38 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 22.7% | 15.2% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 40 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 77 | 30 | 2 | 32.5% | 17.0% | 1.2% | 1.54 | 3.16 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 65 | 0 | 66 | 253 | 88 | 22 | 7 | 34.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 2.19 | 2.86 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 56 | 0 | 61 | 237 | 110 | 26 | 4 | 46.4% | 11.0% | 1.6% | 1.48 | 1.45 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 35 | 0 | 35 | 142 | 50 | 23 | 3 | 35.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | 2.60 | 3.25 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 9 | — | 9 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 37.0% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 2.75 | 3.52 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 45 | 16 | 3 | 36.3% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 3.64 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 251 | 15 | 340 | 1389 | 418 | 169 | 22 | 30.1% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 2.96 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 9 | 200 | 816 | 246 | 99 | 13 | 30.1% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 2.96 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Félix Bautista (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.52 | 37.0% | 13.0% | 2.8% | — | 3.64 | 36.3% | 23.1% | 29 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Robert Suarez R 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.79 | 31.9% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .238 | 3.09 | 24.9% | 19.3% | 162 | +0.30 | 1.95 | 257 | 69 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 63 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.02 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 121 | 62 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.07 | 32.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.96 | 26.1% | 14.5% | 108 | +0.89 | 2.00 | 320 | 62 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.64 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .211 | 3.30 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 162 | +0.66 | 2.58 | 277 | 61 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.37 | 29.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .248 | 3.45 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 110 | +0.08 | 1.94 | 268 | 60 |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 60 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2027 · 2.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.80 | 31.0% | 14.0% | 1.0% | .278 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 72 | +0.70 | 2.80 | 162 | 57 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.04 | 28.4% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 230 | 57 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.76 | 28.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .275 | 3.46 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 187 | -0.30 | 3.08 | 303 | 56 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2027 · 2.94 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.94 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .254 | 2.70 | 36.3% | 25.3% | 181 | -0.24 | 2.44 | 316 | 56 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 55 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.30 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | .248 | 4.70 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 279 | 55 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 54 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 54 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .341 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 113 | +1.17 | 2.26 | 602 | 54 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.26 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .222 | 2.53 | 27.4% | 20.0% | 139 | -0.73 | 2.40 | 362 | 54 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.18 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.64 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.46 | 2.41 | 339 | 53 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 53 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 52 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.