Félix Bautista — OGILVIE

Félix Bautista P Norfolk Tides

Age 31 RHP 6'8" / 285 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.20

FIP3.52

K%39.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%24.6%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2020

CMD6060

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p9035.7%

p9035.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.264

FB+2.9 (62%)

SL+0.6 (9%)

SI (62%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles 2	5	0	7	33	4	6	0	0%	1.3	12.1%	18.2%	-6.1%	0.0%	6.75	4.38	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles 2	5	0	7	33	4	6	0	0%	1.3	12.1%	18.2%	-6.1%	0.0%	6.75	4.60	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles	15	14	67	279	75	22	1	93%	4.5	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	0.5%	2.01	3.08	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles	15	14	67	279	75	22	1	93%	4.5	26.9%	7.9%	19.0%	0.4%	2.01	2.04	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	12	1	27	111	30	8	1	8%	2.2	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	1.3%	4.33	3.38	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	12	1	27	111	30	8	1	8%	2.2	27.0%	7.2%	19.8%	0.9%	4.33	2.25	—
2019	24	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	0	32	140	43	18	2	0%	1.4	22.7%	15.2%	7.6%	2.0%	3.41	4.20	—
2019	24	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	0	32	140	43	18	2	0%	1.4	30.7%	12.9%	17.9%	1.4%	3.41	2.91	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	47	194	77	30	2	0%	1.2	32.5%	17.0%	15.4%	1.2%	1.54	3.16	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	47	194	77	30	2	0%	1.2	39.7%	15.5%	24.2%	1.0%	1.54	2.29	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	66	253	88	22	7	0%	1.0	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	2.8%	2.19	2.79	+1.4
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	66	253	88	22	7	0%	1.0	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	2.8%	2.19	2.81	+1.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	56	0	61	237	110	26	4	0%	1.1	46.4%	11.0%	35.4%	1.7%	1.48	1.50	+2.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	56	0	61	237	110	26	4	0%	1.1	46.4%	11.0%	35.4%	1.7%	1.48	1.50	+2.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	56	0	61	237	110	26	4	0%	1.1	46.4%	11.0%	35.4%	1.7%	1.48	1.62	+2.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	35	0	35	142	50	23	3	0%	1.0	35.2%	16.2%	19.0%	2.0%	2.60	3.29	+0.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	35	0	35	142	50	23	3	0%	1.0	35.2%	16.2%	19.0%	2.0%	2.60	3.29	+0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	35	0	35	142	50	23	3	0%	1.0	35.2%	16.2%	19.0%	2.1%	2.60	3.33	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	0	161	632	248	71	14	0%	1.0	39.2%	11.2%	28.0%	2.2%	2.01	2.47	+4.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	8	1	7	33	8	7	1	12%	0.9	—	—	—	—	6.43	—	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	8	1	7	33	8	7	1	12%	0.9	—	—	—	—	6.43	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AA RAW	BAL	1	1	0	5	0	3	0	100%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	0.0%	81.00	10.70	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	BAL	7	0	7	28	8	4	1	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	3.6%	2.70	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BAL	53	0	56	235	90	35	7	0%	1.0	38.4%	15.0%	23.4%	3.0%	3.54	3.77	+0.5
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	49	0	51	215	81	33	7	0%	1.0	37.6%	15.4%	22.2%	3.3%	3.85	4.05	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	BAL	32	0	34	144	55	22	4	0%	1.1	38.4%	15.0%	23.4%	3.0%	3.54	3.77	+0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	34	0	36	152	57	23	5	0%	1.1	37.6%	15.4%	22.2%	3.3%	3.85	4.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	232	929	361	116	23	0%	1.0	38.8%	12.5%	26.3%	2.5%	2.52	2.78	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	802	312	100	20	0%	1.0	38.8%	12.5%	26.3%	2.5%	2.52	2.78	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		259	16	347	1422	426	176	23	6%	1.3	30.0%	12.4%	17.6%	1.6%	2.44	3.02	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	9	200	819	245	101	13	6%	1.3	30.0%	12.4%	17.6%	1.6%	2.44	3.02	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Félix Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.52	39.2%	14.6%	2.7%	—	3.90	38.0%	22.8%	107	+0.38	—	—	—
Robert Suarez R 2022 · 2.92 FIP	31	SU	2.92	31.9%	11.0%	2.0%	.238	3.15	24.9%	19.3%	162	+0.23	1.95	289	67
Wade Davis R 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	32.6%	11.2%	2.6%	.254	3.92	26.1%	14.5%	108	+0.75	2.00	320	64
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	62
Greg Holland R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	31	SU	3.38	29.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.248	3.47	25.2%	13.1%	110	+0.09	1.97	268	61
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	60
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	59
Pedro Strop R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	31	SU	2.56	32.1%	7.5%	2.2%	.211	3.30	25.5%	16.3%	162	+0.74	2.56	277	59
Rafael Dolis R 2020 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	31.0%	14.0%	1.0%	.278	3.51	22.7%	9.0%	72	+0.71	2.80	162	57
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.2%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	366	56
Brooks Kriske R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	30.1%	10.0%	4.3%	.379	3.75	28.2%	16.0%	127	-0.45	3.15	246	56
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	55
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	55
Justin Miller R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	27.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.248	4.82	24.8%	18.8%	66	+0.58	2.63	279	55
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	54
Jason Adam R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	31	SU	3.40	31.1%	9.0%	3.2%	.222	2.95	25.3%	18.2%	171	-0.45	2.42	394	53
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	53
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	53
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	339	52
Tyler Chatwood R 2021 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	26.2%	14.5%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	537	52
Luis García R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.16	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.11	2.33	617	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	38.4%	15.0%	1.16	3.52
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18