Félix Bautista

P Norfolk Tides

Age 32 RHP 6'8" / 285 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MLBBAL	56	0	61	1.48	1.62	46.4%	11.0%	2.2
2025	30	MLBBAL	35	0	35	2.60	3.33	35.2%	16.2%	0.5
2026	31	MIX3 levels	11	1	10	7.45	5.79	26.1%	17.4%	-0.1	K 26.1% · BB 17.4% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	32	MLBBAL	48	0	50	3.62	3.78	37.2%	14.4%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBBAL	41	0	43	3.89	4.06	36.4%	14.8%	0.3
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBBAL	32	0	34	4.18	4.37	35.5%	15.3%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo88

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Ryan Tepera (age 32) · C.C. Lee (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.62

FIP3.78

K%37.2%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%22.8%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2020

CMD6060

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p9035.7%

p9035.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.264

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles 2	5	0	7	33	4	6	0	0%	1.3	12.1%	18.2%	-6.1%	0.0%	6.75	4.38	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles 2	5	0	7	33	4	6	0	0%	1.3	12.1%	18.2%	-6.1%	0.0%	6.75	4.60	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles	15	14	67	279	75	22	1	93%	4.5	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	0.5%	2.01	3.08	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles	15	14	67	279	75	22	1	93%	4.5	26.9%	7.9%	19.0%	0.4%	2.01	2.04	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	12	1	27	111	30	8	1	8%	2.2	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	1.3%	4.33	3.38	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	12	1	27	111	30	8	1	8%	2.2	27.0%	7.2%	19.8%	0.9%	4.33	2.25	—
2019	24	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	0	32	140	43	18	2	0%	1.4	22.7%	15.2%	7.6%	2.0%	3.41	4.20	—
2019	24	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	0	32	140	43	18	2	0%	1.4	30.7%	12.9%	17.9%	1.4%	3.41	2.91	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	47	194	77	30	2	0%	1.2	32.5%	17.0%	15.4%	1.2%	1.54	3.16	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	47	194	77	30	2	0%	1.2	39.7%	15.5%	24.2%	1.0%	1.54	2.29	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	66	253	88	22	7	0%	1.0	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	2.8%	2.19	2.79	+1.4
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	66	253	88	22	7	0%	1.0	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	2.8%	2.19	2.81	+1.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	56	0	61	237	110	26	4	0%	1.1	46.4%	11.0%	35.4%	1.7%	1.48	1.50	+2.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	56	0	61	237	110	26	4	0%	1.1	46.4%	11.0%	35.4%	1.7%	1.48	1.62	+2.2
2025	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	35	0	35	142	50	23	3	0%	1.0	35.2%	16.2%	19.0%	2.0%	2.60	3.29	+0.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	35	0	35	142	50	23	3	0%	1.0	35.2%	16.2%	19.0%	2.0%	2.60	3.29	+0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	35	0	35	142	50	23	3	0%	1.0	35.2%	16.2%	19.0%	2.1%	2.60	3.33	+0.5
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	10	46	12	8	2	9%	0.9	26.1%	17.4%	8.7%	4.3%	7.45	5.49	-0.1
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	10	46	12	8	2	9%	0.9	26.1%	17.4%	8.7%	4.3%	7.45	5.49	-0.1
2026	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	1	10	46	12	8	2	9%	0.9	26.1%	17.4%	8.7%	4.3%	7.45	5.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			158	0	163	642	251	72	15	0%	1.0	39.1%	11.2%	27.9%	2.3%	2.15	2.54	+3.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	BAL	48	0	50	211	79	30	6	0%	1.0	37.2%	14.4%	22.8%	3.0%	3.62	3.78	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	43	0	45	189	69	28	6	0%	1.0	36.4%	14.8%	21.5%	3.2%	3.89	4.06	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	BAL	36	0	37	157	56	24	6	0%	1.0	35.5%	15.3%	20.1%	3.5%	4.18	4.37	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	41	0	43	182	66	27	6	0%	1.0	36.4%	14.8%	21.5%	3.2%	3.89	4.06	+0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	BAL	32	0	34	144	51	22	5	0%	1.1	35.5%	15.3%	20.1%	3.5%	4.18	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	0	239	964	367	121	26	0%	1.0	38.0%	12.5%	25.5%	2.7%	2.75	2.94	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	806	307	101	22	0%	1.0	38.0%	12.5%	25.5%	2.7%	2.75	2.94	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		262	16	350	1435	430	177	24	6%	1.3	30.0%	12.3%	17.7%	1.7%	2.49	3.04	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	9	200	820	246	101	14	6%	1.3	30.0%	12.3%	17.7%	1.7%	2.49	3.04	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.41 (+0.36)K% 29.0% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.860	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×0.900	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 18 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.02 (+0.48)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.050	12.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.009	×1.100	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 15 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.58 (+1.36)K% 45.2% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.16%	—	×0.770	34.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.13%	—	×1.150	18.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.041	×1.250	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 13 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.91 (+0.92)K% 42.1% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.11%	—	×0.810	34.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.30%	—	×1.100	21.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.258	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 152).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 32 IPFIP 2.92 → 4.20 (+1.28)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.71%	—	×0.740	22.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.180	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.931	×1.300	1.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Orioles · 27 IPFIP 2.23 → 3.38 (+1.16)K% 27.0% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.680	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.250	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKDSL Orioles · 67 IPFIP 2.03 → 3.08 (+1.05)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.88%	—	×0.680	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.250	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.36%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.50%

Result: FIP 2.03 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKDSL Orioles 2 · 7 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.28 (+0.90)K% 12.1% → 8.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.12%	—	×0.680	8.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.250	22.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Félix Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	37.2%	14.4%	3.0%	—	4.20	36.0%	20.9%	82	+0.42	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	62
Ryan Tepera R 2020 · 3.15 FIP	32	SU	3.15	34.8%	13.5%	2.3%	.341	3.29	25.2%	18.0%	129	+0.14	2.35	445	60
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	149	59
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	55
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	1.90	518	53
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	53
Rafael Dolis R 2020 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	31.0%	14.0%	1.0%	.278	3.51	22.7%	9.0%	72	+0.71	2.80	200	53
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	52
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	52
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	51
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	50
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	50
Ben Heller R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	32	SU	3.76	31.0%	7.9%	4.2%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	49
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	49
Oliver Drake R 2019 · 3.25 FIP	32	SU	3.25	33.5%	8.1%	3.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	317	49
Julio Santana R 2005 · 3.70 FIP	32	SU	3.70	27.7%	8.5%	3.4%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	471	48
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	48
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	47
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	47
Scott Cassidy R 2006 · 4.42 FIP	30	SU	4.42	26.9%	9.3%	4.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	122	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	37.8%	13.0%	1.06	2.92
Rob Dibble ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	2.4	68	41.6%*	12.1%*	0.76*	3.34*
Victor Cruz ('78-'83, 5 WAR*)	1.4	54	35.3%*	11.5%*	1.30*	3.24*
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.5	51	31.7%	11.2%	1.00	3.26
Dellin Betances ('21)	2.0	79	39.2%	11.3%	0.59	2.53
Bryan Harvey ('87-'94, 12 WAR*)	1.9	64	37.8%*	8.9%*	0.94*	2.59*
Mike Gonzalez ('03-'13, 7 WAR*)	2.2	49	29.1%*	10.7%*	0.94*	3.18*