Félix Bautista
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 31
RHP
6'8" / 285 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 81
ERA3.19
FIP3.50
K%39.2%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%24.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p9035.7%
K%
p9035.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.264
FB+2.9 (62%)
SL+0.6 (9%)
SI (62%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 12.1% | 18.2% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.38 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 12.1% | 18.2% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.60 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | DSL Orioles | 15 | 14 | 67 | 279 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 93% | 4.5 | 18.3% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 0.5% | 2.01 | 3.08 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | DSL Orioles | 15 | 14 | 67 | 279 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 93% | 4.5 | 26.9% | 7.9% | 19.0% | 0.4% | 2.01 | 2.04 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 12 | 1 | 27 | 111 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 8% | 2.2 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 4.33 | 3.38 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 12 | 1 | 27 | 111 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 8% | 2.2 | 27.0% | 7.2% | 19.8% | 0.9% | 4.33 | 2.25 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 15.2% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 4.28 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.7% | 12.9% | 17.9% | 1.4% | 3.41 | 2.91 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 77 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.5% | 17.0% | 15.4% | 1.2% | 1.54 | 3.15 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 77 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.7% | 15.5% | 24.2% | 1.0% | 1.54 | 2.29 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 65 | 0 | 66 | 253 | 88 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 8.7% | 26.1% | 2.6% | 2.19 | 2.68 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 65 | 0 | 66 | 253 | 88 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 8.7% | 26.1% | 2.8% | 2.19 | 2.81 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 56 | 0 | 61 | 237 | 110 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 46.4% | 11.0% | 35.4% | 1.6% | 1.48 | 1.43 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 56 | 0 | 61 | 237 | 110 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 46.4% | 11.0% | 35.4% | 1.7% | 1.48 | 1.62 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 35 | 0 | 35 | 142 | 50 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.2% | 16.2% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 2.60 | 3.26 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 35 | 0 | 35 | 142 | 50 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.2% | 16.2% | 19.0% | 2.1% | 2.60 | 3.33 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 39.2% | 14.6% | 24.6% | 2.7% | 3.19 | 3.50 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 90 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.4% | 15.0% | 23.4% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 81 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.6% | 15.4% | 22.2% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 86 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.4% | 15.0% | 23.4% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 76 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.6% | 15.4% | 22.2% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 252 | 0 | 263 | 1060 | 411 | 136 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.7% | 12.8% | 25.9% | 2.6% | 2.65 | 2.86 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 807 | 313 | 104 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.7% | 12.8% | 25.9% | 2.6% | 2.65 | 2.86 | +5.9 | ||
| Career | — | 251 | 15 | 340 | 1389 | 418 | 169 | 21 | 6% | 1.4 | 30.1% | 12.2% | 18.0% | 1.5% | 2.35 | 2.93 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 9 | 200 | 816 | 246 | 99 | 12 | 6% | 1.4 | 30.1% | 12.2% | 18.0% | 1.5% | 2.35 | 2.93 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Félix Bautista (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.50 | 39.2% | 14.6% | 2.7% | — | 3.89 | 38.0% | 22.8% | 107 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Robert Suarez R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.03 | 31.9% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .238 | 3.29 | 24.9% | 19.3% | 162 | +0.26 | 1.93 | 289 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 63 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 32.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.71 | 26.1% | 14.5% | 108 | +0.63 | 2.00 | 320 | 62 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 60 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.19 | 29.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .248 | 3.41 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 110 | +0.22 | 1.97 | 268 | 60 |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 59 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.48 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .211 | 3.23 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 162 | +0.75 | 2.48 | 277 | 57 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 28.4% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .336 | 3.41 | 32.8% | 15.6% | 16 | +0.41 | 3.00 | 246 | 57 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2027 · 2.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.80 | 31.0% | 14.0% | 1.0% | .278 | 3.45 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 72 | +0.65 | 2.80 | 162 | 57 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.74 | 28.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .275 | 3.48 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 187 | -0.26 | 3.08 | 349 | 56 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2027 · 2.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.77 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.3% | .254 | 2.78 | 36.3% | 25.3% | 181 | +0.01 | 2.52 | 356 | 55 |
| Kirby Yates R 2026 · 2.34 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.34 | 36.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .255 | 0.70 | 41.6% | 36.7% | 61 | -1.64 | 0.70 | 468 | 54 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 54 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.24 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | .248 | 4.79 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.55 | 2.54 | 279 | 53 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 53 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 53 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 53 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 52 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .222 | 3.03 | 25.3% | 18.2% | 171 | -0.42 | 2.45 | 394 | 52 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.54 | 26.2% | 14.5% | 1.5% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 537 | 52 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 38.4% | 15.0% | 1.16 | 3.54 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Dellin Betances ('18) | 4 | 71 | 40.5% | 11.9% | 0.67 | 2.48 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |