Ben Heller — OGILVIE

Ben Heller P Indianapolis Indians

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.21

FIP3.95

K%29.0%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%19.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p7729.6%

p5322.7%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

CT+0.7 (37%)

CH+0.5 (22%)

SI (24%)

SL (4%)

FB-6.8 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	40	174	58	14	0	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	0.0%	4.02	2.49	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	40	174	58	14	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	8.0%	25.3%	0.0%	4.02	1.27	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	0	55	229	61	15	5	0%	0.9	24.8%	6.8%	18.0%	1.3%	2.29	2.56	+1.3
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	0	55	229	61	15	5	0%	0.9	26.6%	6.6%	20.1%	2.2%	2.29	2.88	+1.1
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	67	266	91	26	6	0%	1.3	32.4%	9.4%	22.9%	2.4%	2.54	2.86	+1.4
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	67	266	91	26	6	0%	1.3	34.2%	9.8%	24.4%	2.3%	2.54	2.71	+1.5
2019	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	6	21	79	24	6	1	35%	1.2	30.4%	7.6%	22.8%	1.3%	0.86	2.19	+0.6
2019	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	6	21	79	24	6	1	35%	1.2	30.4%	7.6%	22.8%	1.3%	0.86	2.29	+0.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	6	0	6	27	6	2	2	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	7.4%	3.00	6.23	-0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	6	0	6	27	6	2	2	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	7.4%	3.00	6.43	-0.1
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	9	49	9	10	2	29%	1.2	18.4%	20.4%	-2.0%	4.1%	9.35	6.37	—
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	9	49	9	10	2	29%	1.2	18.4%	20.4%	-2.0%	4.1%	9.35	7.48	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	63	279	73	25	4	0%	1.2	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.09	+1.1
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	63	279	73	25	4	0%	1.2	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.09	+1.1
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	63	279	73	25	4	0%	1.2	26.2%	9.0%	17.2%	1.4%	3.45	2.80	+1.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	49	215	78	17	7	0%	1.2	30.2%	7.9%	22.3%	4.2%	5.14	3.83	+0.4
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	49	215	78	17	7	0%	1.2	30.2%	7.9%	22.3%	4.2%	5.14	3.83	+0.4
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	49	215	78	17	7	0%	1.2	36.3%	7.9%	28.4%	3.3%	5.14	2.81	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	0	62	286	61	29	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.1%	4.65	4.42	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	PIT	4	0	4	17	5	2	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	9.9%	19.1%	3.0%	4.21	3.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	PIT	42	0	44	184	51	19	6	0%	1.0	27.5%	10.3%	17.1%	3.4%	4.29	4.32	+0.1
2027	35	MLB CTX	PIT	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	27.5%	10.3%	17.1%	3.4%	4.29	4.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	64	296	64	30	9	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	920	199	93	28	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		272	8	310	1318	349	117	27	3%	1.1	26.5%	8.9%	17.6%	2.1%	3.37	3.13	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		175	5	200	850	225	75	18	3%	1.1	26.5%	8.9%	17.6%	2.1%	3.37	3.13	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Heller (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	29.0%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.32	27.5%	17.1%	44	+0.37	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	86
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	78
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	77
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	77
Pedro Strop R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	34	SU	4.05	27.5%	10.7%	3.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	277	77
Matt Albers R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	34	SU	3.15	27.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.197	4.64	21.5%	12.7%	94	+1.49	3.15	244	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	76
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	75
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	74
Bud Norris R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	33	SU	3.65	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	316	72
David Hernandez R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	34	SU	3.72	26.8%	8.6%	3.3%	.380	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	268	71
Justin Miller R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	34	SU	3.87	27.1%	5.9%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	279	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2018 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	23.2%	10.4%	0.6%	.296	2.98	25.0%	17.3%	56	+0.18	2.80	284	71
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	71
Brandon Morrow R 2018 · 2.82 FIP	34	SU	2.82	25.4%	7.4%	1.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	186	71
Zach McAllister R 2022 · 3.41 FIP	34	SU	3.41	26.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.312	3.57	25.8%	16.7%	55	+0.16	2.82	363	70
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	69
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	69
José Cisnero R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	34	SU	4.12	26.2%	8.6%	3.9%	.323	5.44	23.0%	12.2%	16	+1.32	2.26	279	69
Brad Peacock R 2022 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	23.9%	10.6%	2.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	533	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	28.3%	10.1%	1.23	4.25
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Feliz ('21)	1.2	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84