Ken Giles — OGILVIE

Ken Giles P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 197 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9385vR 77

ERA4.11

FIP4.12

K%29.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%19.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5555

CMD7575

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p9040.0%

p9039.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.245

SL+2.1

FB-0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	70	298	87	23	2	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	0.6%	1.80	1.96	+2.2
2015	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	70	298	87	23	2	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	0.7%	1.80	1.97	+2.2
2016	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	69	0	66	286	102	24	8	0%	1.0	35.7%	8.4%	27.3%	2.9%	4.11	2.73	+1.4
2016	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	69	0	66	286	102	24	8	0%	1.0	35.7%	8.4%	27.3%	2.8%	4.11	2.67	+1.5
2017	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	63	0	63	247	83	21	4	0%	1.0	33.6%	8.5%	25.1%	1.7%	2.30	2.25	+1.7
2017	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	63	0	63	247	83	21	4	0%	1.0	33.6%	8.5%	25.1%	1.6%	2.30	2.29	+1.7
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	56	239	61	9	6	0%	0.9	25.0%	3.3%	21.7%	2.8%	5.01	2.96	+1.1
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	56	239	61	9	6	0%	0.9	25.5%	3.8%	21.8%	2.5%	5.01	2.79	+1.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	53	0	53	208	83	16	5	0%	1.0	39.9%	7.7%	32.2%	2.4%	1.87	2.02	+1.6
2019	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	53	0	53	208	83	16	5	0%	1.0	39.9%	7.7%	32.2%	2.4%	1.87	2.10	+1.6
2020	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	4	0	4	19	6	4	2	0%	0.9	31.6%	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	9.82	8.88	-0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	4	0	4	19	6	4	2	0%	0.9	31.6%	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	9.82	10.19	-0.2
2022	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	3	20	101	25	17	5	13%	0.9	14.1%	18.9%	-4.8%	8.9%	7.08	9.19	-1.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	3	20	101	25	17	5	13%	0.9	24.8%	16.8%	7.9%	5.0%	7.08	6.35	-0.4
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	20	104	32	18	3	10%	1.0	23.7%	16.5%	7.2%	3.3%	8.55	5.03	—
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	20	104	32	18	3	10%	1.0	23.7%	16.5%	7.2%	3.3%	8.55	5.03	—
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	2	20	104	32	18	3	10%	1.0	30.8%	17.3%	13.5%	2.9%	8.55	4.55	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	42	0	39	171	58	22	8	0%	0.9	28.2%	11.6%	16.6%	5.3%	6.28	5.11	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	42	0	39	171	58	22	8	0%	0.9	28.2%	11.6%	16.6%	5.3%	6.28	5.11	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	42	0	39	171	58	22	8	0%	0.9	33.9%	12.9%	21.1%	4.7%	6.28	4.50	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			318	0	310	1288	420	99	27	0%	1.0	32.6%	7.7%	24.9%	2.1%	2.94	2.48	+7.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	ATL	4	0	4	17	5	2	1	0%	1.0	29.6%	10.4%	19.1%	3.3%	4.11	4.12	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	ATL	44	0	46	193	55	21	7	0%	1.0	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	3.7%	4.33	4.48	+0.0
2028	37	MLB MLE	ATL	38	0	40	169	46	20	7	0%	1.1	27.4%	11.7%	15.8%	4.1%	4.66	4.88	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	3.7%	4.33	4.48	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	27.4%	11.7%	15.8%	4.1%	4.66	4.88	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	0	310	1290	421	99	27	0%	1.0	32.6%	7.7%	24.9%	2.1%	2.94	2.47	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	832	272	64	17	0%	1.0	32.6%	7.7%	24.9%	2.1%	2.94	2.47	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		405	5	390	1673	508	152	50	1%	1.0	30.4%	9.1%	21.3%	3.0%	3.88	3.31	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		208	3	200	859	261	78	25	1%	1.0	30.4%	9.1%	21.3%	3.0%	3.88	3.31	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ken Giles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	29.6%	10.4%	3.3%	—	4.67	28.0%	16.7%	86	+0.55	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	80
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	77
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	76
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	74
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	73
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	70
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.83	25.8%	17.1%	36	+0.10	2.87	249	67
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	66
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	66
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	64
Adam Ottavino R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	35	SU	3.46	25.7%	12.0%	1.9%	.299	3.14	27.7%	19.7%	183	-0.32	2.10	488	63
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	212	63
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	62
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	62
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	62
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	62
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	61
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	61
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	60
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	28.6%	11.0%	1.41	4.34
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Feliz ('21)	1.2	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41