Ken Giles
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 197 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9485vR 76
ERA4.19
FIP4.21
K%30.8%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%18.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p9040.0%
K%
p9039.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.245
SL+2.1
FB-0.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 0 | 70 | 298 | 87 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 0.6% | 1.80 | 1.97 | +2.3 |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 0 | 70 | 298 | 87 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 0.7% | 1.80 | 1.97 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 69 | 0 | 66 | 286 | 102 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.7% | 8.4% | 27.3% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 2.60 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 69 | 0 | 66 | 286 | 102 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.7% | 8.4% | 27.3% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 2.67 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 63 | 0 | 63 | 247 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.6% | 8.5% | 25.1% | 1.5% | 2.30 | 2.18 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 63 | 0 | 63 | 247 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.6% | 8.5% | 25.1% | 1.6% | 2.30 | 2.29 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 61 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 3.3% | 21.7% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 2.96 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 61 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 3.8% | 21.8% | 2.5% | 5.01 | 2.79 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 53 | 0 | 53 | 208 | 83 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.9% | 7.7% | 32.2% | 2.4% | 1.87 | 2.02 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 53 | 0 | 53 | 208 | 83 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.9% | 7.7% | 32.2% | 2.4% | 1.87 | 2.10 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.6% | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.82 | 8.88 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.6% | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.82 | 10.19 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 3 | 20 | 101 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 13% | 0.9 | 14.1% | 18.9% | -4.8% | 9.0% | 7.08 | 9.25 | -1.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 3 | 20 | 101 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 13% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 7.08 | 6.35 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 2 | 20 | 104 | 32 | 18 | 3 | 10% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 19.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 8.55 | 5.25 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 2 | 20 | 104 | 32 | 18 | 3 | 10% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 8.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 42 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 58 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.8% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 5.5% | 6.28 | 5.31 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 42 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 58 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.9% | 12.9% | 21.1% | 4.7% | 6.28 | 4.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 67 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.8% | 11.9% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 3.7% | 4.42 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 29.8% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 3.7% | 4.42 | 4.58 | — |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.7% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.98 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 318 | 0 | 310 | 1290 | 421 | 99 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.6% | 7.7% | 24.9% | 2.1% | 2.94 | 2.47 | +10.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 205 | 0 | 200 | 832 | 272 | 64 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.6% | 7.7% | 24.9% | 2.1% | 2.94 | 2.47 | +6.8 | ||
| Career | — | 405 | 5 | 390 | 1673 | 512 | 158 | 49 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 9.5% | 21.2% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.32 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 3 | 200 | 859 | 263 | 81 | 25 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 9.5% | 21.2% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ken Giles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 30.8% | 11.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.77 | 29.3% | 16.5% | 86 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 76 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 71 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 68 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 67 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 67 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.95 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | .224 | 3.83 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 36 | -0.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 63 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 63 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 61 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 61 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 61 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 61 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.55 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 61 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 60 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 59 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 59 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.68 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 268 | 58 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 57 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 57 |
| Joe Blanton R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.13 | 25.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .233 | 4.94 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 44 | +1.81 | 3.13 | 240 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 29.8% | 12.5% | 1.42 | 4.43 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |