Chad Green — OGILVIE

Chad Green P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 117

ERA4.80

FIP4.97

K%20.7%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

SI (2%)

CU (48%)

FB-8.5 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	27	27	149	655	137	41	9	100%	5.5	16.9%	6.9%	10.1%	1.5%	3.93	3.36	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	27	27	149	655	137	41	9	100%	5.5	20.9%	6.3%	14.7%	1.4%	3.93	2.87	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	140	563	152	36	15	86%	5.0	24.9%	6.6%	18.3%	2.6%	2.57	3.25	+2.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	140	563	152	36	15	86%	5.0	27.0%	6.4%	20.6%	2.7%	2.57	3.09	+3.1
2017	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	6	100	389	141	28	6	13%	2.2	35.1%	7.6%	27.5%	1.2%	2.62	1.77	+3.4
2017	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	6	100	389	141	28	6	13%	2.2	36.2%	7.2%	29.0%	1.5%	2.62	1.90	+3.3
2018	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	63	0	76	298	94	13	9	0%	1.2	31.5%	4.4%	27.2%	2.8%	2.50	2.54	+1.8
2018	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	63	0	76	298	94	13	9	0%	1.2	31.5%	4.4%	27.2%	3.0%	2.50	2.68	+1.7
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	18	76	324	112	21	10	32%	1.3	33.2%	6.4%	26.8%	3.2%	4.01	2.85	+1.6
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	18	76	324	112	21	10	32%	1.3	34.6%	6.5%	28.1%	3.1%	4.01	2.69	+1.7
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	22	0	26	100	32	6	5	0%	1.2	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	4.7%	3.51	3.73	+0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	22	0	26	100	32	6	5	0%	1.2	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	5.0%	3.51	3.84	+0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	67	0	84	315	99	15	14	0%	1.2	31.4%	4.8%	26.7%	4.2%	3.12	3.33	+1.2
2021	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	67	0	84	315	99	15	14	0%	1.2	31.4%	4.8%	26.7%	4.4%	3.12	3.45	+1.1
2022	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	14	0	15	62	16	5	1	0%	1.1	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	1.5%	3.00	2.77	+0.3
2022	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	14	0	15	62	16	5	1	0%	1.1	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	1.6%	3.00	2.83	+0.3
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	24	99	31	4	2	4%	1.0	30.8%	5.8%	25.0%	1.9%	3.33	2.29	+0.7
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	24	99	31	4	2	4%	1.0	30.8%	5.8%	25.0%	1.9%	3.33	2.29	+0.7
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	1	24	99	31	4	2	4%	1.0	31.3%	4.0%	27.3%	2.0%	3.33	2.11	+0.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	56	222	47	12	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	5.2%	16.7%	3.8%	3.04	4.00	+0.4
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	56	222	47	12	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	5.2%	16.7%	3.8%	3.04	4.00	+0.4
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	56	222	47	12	8	0%	1.0	21.2%	5.4%	15.8%	3.6%	3.04	3.92	+0.4
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	45	0	44	190	35	11	14	0%	1.0	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	7.4%	5.56	6.32	-0.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	45	0	44	190	35	11	14	0%	1.0	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	7.4%	5.56	6.32	-0.9
2025	34	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	45	0	44	190	35	11	14	0%	1.0	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	7.4%	5.56	6.42	-0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			382	24	493	1973	591	115	78	6%	1.3	30.0%	5.8%	24.1%	4.0%	3.43	3.46	+6.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	TOR	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	4.5%	4.80	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TOR	45	0	48	201	40	13	10	0%	1.1	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	4.9%	5.12	5.33	-0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	175	33	12	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	5.3%	5.49	5.73	-0.5
2027	36	MLB CTX	TOR	46	0	48	203	40	13	10	0%	1.0	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	4.9%	5.12	5.33	-0.4
2028	37	MLB CTX	TOR	40	0	42	177	33	13	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	5.3%	5.49	5.73	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		467	24	582	2349	663	140	97	5%	1.2	28.2%	6.0%	22.2%	4.1%	3.72	3.74	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	8	200	808	228	48	33	5%	1.2	28.2%	6.0%	22.2%	4.1%	3.72	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		449	76	789	3217	850	200	91	17%	1.8	26.4%	6.2%	20.2%	2.8%	3.28	3.21	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	19	200	815	215	51	23	17%	1.8	26.4%	6.2%	20.2%	2.8%	3.28	3.21	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Green (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	20.7%	5.9%	4.5%	—	5.52	19.2%	12.4%	89	+0.55	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	69
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	69
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	68
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	67
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	67
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	67
Casey Fien R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	33	SU	5.10	15.8%	4.0%	5.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	136	67
Shawn Kelley R 2019 · 4.97 FIP	35	SU	4.97	21.0%	4.4%	5.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	232	65
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	65
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	63
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	63
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	63
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	62
Matt Albers R 2018 · 5.52 FIP	35	SU	5.52	20.4%	6.4%	6.1%	.333	4.13	22.1%	12.0%	60	-1.39	3.15	244	62
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	62
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	61
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	61
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	61
Felipe Paulino R 2019 · 5.82 FIP	35	SU	5.82	19.2%	9.4%	5.7%	.385	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	150	61
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.7%	6.4%	1.89	5.11
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37
Elieser Hernández ('22)	1.4	58	22.2%	7.5%	2.13	5.04