Chad Green
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.0
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
ERA4.71
FIP4.89
xFIP5.00
SIERA4.34
K%21.0%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%14.3%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
SI (2%)
CU (48%)
FB-8.5 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 27 | 149 | 655 | 137 | 41 | 9 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 3.93 | 3.35 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 24 | 140 | 563 | 152 | 36 | 15 | 24.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 3.04 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 46 | 6 | 100 | 389 | 141 | 28 | 6 | 35.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 2.62 | 1.78 | +4.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 63 | 0 | 76 | 298 | 94 | 13 | 9 | 31.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.50 | 2.53 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 57 | 18 | 76 | 324 | 112 | 21 | 10 | 33.2% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 4.01 | 2.92 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 22 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.51 | 3.20 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 67 | 0 | 84 | 315 | 99 | 15 | 14 | 31.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.12 | 3.50 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 3.00 | 2.79 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 24 | 1 | 24 | 99 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 30.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 2.35 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 56 | 0 | 56 | 222 | 47 | 12 | 8 | 21.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.04 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 45 | 0 | 44 | 190 | 35 | 11 | 14 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.56 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 21.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 449 | 76 | 789 | 3217 | 850 | 200 | 87 | 26.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 3.28 | 3.15 | +19.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 19 | 200 | 815 | 215 | 51 | 22 | 26.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 3.28 | 3.15 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Green (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | — | 4.98 | 21.2% | 14.3% | 30 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 70 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 70 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 70 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.68 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.90 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.22 | 3.43 | 132 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 67 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 66 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 65 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.61 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 268 | 65 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.38 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.4% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 509 | 65 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 65 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 136 | 65 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.04 | 21.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.21 | 232 | 64 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 64 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 64 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 63 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.83 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 150 | 63 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 63 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.43 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | .333 | 4.19 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 60 | -1.24 | 3.13 | 244 | 62 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.