Chad Green
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120
ERA4.80
FIP4.98
K%20.7%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%14.7%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
SI (2%)
CU (48%)
FB-8.5 (52%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 27 | 149 | 655 | 137 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.93 | 3.30 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 27 | 149 | 655 | 137 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.9% | 6.3% | 14.7% | 1.4% | 3.93 | 2.87 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 140 | 563 | 152 | 36 | 15 | 86% | 5.0 | 24.9% | 6.6% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 2.57 | 3.25 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 140 | 563 | 152 | 36 | 15 | 86% | 5.0 | 27.0% | 6.4% | 20.6% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.09 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 6 | 100 | 389 | 141 | 28 | 6 | 13% | 2.2 | 35.1% | 7.6% | 27.5% | 1.2% | 2.62 | 1.75 | +4.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 6 | 100 | 389 | 141 | 28 | 6 | 13% | 2.2 | 36.2% | 7.2% | 29.0% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 1.90 | +4.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 63 | 0 | 76 | 298 | 94 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.5% | 4.4% | 27.2% | 2.8% | 2.50 | 2.53 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 63 | 0 | 76 | 298 | 94 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.5% | 4.4% | 27.2% | 3.0% | 2.50 | 2.68 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 18 | 76 | 324 | 112 | 21 | 10 | 32% | 1.3 | 33.2% | 6.4% | 26.8% | 3.2% | 4.01 | 2.84 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 18 | 76 | 324 | 112 | 21 | 10 | 32% | 1.3 | 34.6% | 6.5% | 28.1% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 2.69 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 22 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 26.0% | 4.7% | 3.51 | 3.71 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 22 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 26.0% | 5.0% | 3.51 | 3.84 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 67 | 0 | 84 | 315 | 99 | 15 | 14 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 4.8% | 26.7% | 4.1% | 3.12 | 3.32 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 67 | 0 | 84 | 315 | 99 | 15 | 14 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 4.8% | 26.7% | 4.4% | 3.12 | 3.45 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 17.7% | 1.5% | 3.00 | 2.77 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 3.00 | 2.83 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 24 | 99 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 5.8% | 25.0% | 1.9% | 3.33 | 2.29 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 24 | 99 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 31.3% | 4.0% | 27.3% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 2.11 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 56 | 222 | 47 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 5.2% | 16.7% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 56 | 222 | 47 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 5.4% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 3.04 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 45 | 0 | 44 | 190 | 35 | 11 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 12.6% | 7.4% | 5.56 | 6.32 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 45 | 0 | 44 | 190 | 35 | 11 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 12.6% | 7.4% | 5.56 | 6.42 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 47 | 13 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 5.9% | 14.7% | 4.5% | 4.80 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 39 | 13 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 5.13 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 32 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 5.50 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 26 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 5.91 | 6.18 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 40 | 13 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 5.13 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 5.50 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 26 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 5.91 | 6.18 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 501 | 24 | 617 | 2500 | 689 | 153 | 106 | 5% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 6.1% | 21.5% | 4.2% | 3.85 | 3.87 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 8 | 200 | 810 | 223 | 50 | 34 | 5% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 6.1% | 21.5% | 4.2% | 3.85 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 449 | 76 | 789 | 3217 | 850 | 200 | 90 | 17% | 1.8 | 26.4% | 6.2% | 20.2% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 3.18 | +20.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 19 | 200 | 815 | 215 | 51 | 23 | 17% | 1.8 | 26.4% | 6.2% | 20.2% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Green (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 20.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | — | 5.72 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 125 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 68 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 67 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 67 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 65 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 65 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 63 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.68 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 268 | 63 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.02 | 21.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 232 | 63 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 63 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 62 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.21 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 212 | 61 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.83 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | .333 | 4.28 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 60 | -1.55 | 3.15 | 244 | 60 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 60 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 150 | 60 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 60 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 60 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.96 | 5.27 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Adam Plutko ('21) | 4 | 68 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.17 | 5.37 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Elieser Hernández ('22) | 5 | 58 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.13 | 5.04 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |