Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 0 | 63 | 241 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.7% | 4.0% | 16.7% | 1.9% | 1.71 | 2.89 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 0 | 63 | 241 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.6% | 3.7% | 22.8% | 0.8% | 1.71 | 1.91 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 78 | 294 | 106 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 30.5% | 5.8% | 24.6% | 1.9% | 1.27 | 2.31 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 78 | 294 | 106 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 36.1% | 5.4% | 30.6% | 1.7% | 1.27 | 1.83 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 64 | 257 | 91 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.2% | 6.1% | 26.1% | 2.2% | 2.97 | 2.37 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 64 | 257 | 91 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.4% | 5.8% | 29.6% | 2.7% | 2.97 | 2.38 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 56 | 219 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.8% | 4.8% | 24.0% | 0.8% | 2.91 | 1.70 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 56 | 219 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.5% | 5.0% | 26.5% | 1.4% | 2.91 | 1.91 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 75 | 282 | 94 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 5.0% | 28.3% | 3.2% | 2.28 | 2.70 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 75 | 282 | 94 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 5.0% | 28.4% | 3.2% | 2.28 | 2.71 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 16 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.8% | 7.0% | 29.8% | 1.8% | 3.60 | 1.85 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 16 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.8% | 7.0% | 29.8% | 1.8% | 3.60 | 1.97 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 73 | 0 | 80 | 310 | 95 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.6% | 5.8% | 24.8% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.32 | +2.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 73 | 0 | 80 | 310 | 95 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.6% | 5.8% | 24.8% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.38 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 57 | 0 | 59 | 235 | 73 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 23.8% | 2.6% | 3.05 | 2.80 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 57 | 0 | 59 | 235 | 73 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 23.8% | 2.6% | 3.05 | 2.81 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 59 | 12 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 5.2% | 20.5% | 4.8% | 4.42 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 59 | 12 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 5.2% | 20.5% | 4.8% | 4.42 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 40 | 185 | 34 | 24 | 9 | 2% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 13.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.58 | 6.16 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 40 | 185 | 34 | 24 | 9 | 2% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.58 | 6.15 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | STL | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | STL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 42 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 4.98 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | STL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 5.33 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | STL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 4.98 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | STL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 5.33 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 387 | 0 | 415 | 1674 | 466 | 117 | 58 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 3.5% | 3.80 | 3.54 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 806 | 224 | 56 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 3.5% | 3.80 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 466 | 1 | 584 | 2309 | 660 | 142 | 61 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 22.4% | 2.6% | 2.93 | 2.91 | +17.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 0 | 200 | 790 | 226 | 49 | 21 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 22.4% | 2.6% | 2.93 | 2.91 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Giovanny Gallegos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | — | 5.37 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 88 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 86 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 84 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 84 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 84 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 83 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 80 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 79 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 79 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .248 | 7.10 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +3.26 | 2.85 | 141 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 77 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.74 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | .258 | 4.22 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 87 | -0.52 | 2.61 | 339 | 77 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.05 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .224 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 22 | -0.66 | 3.02 | 358 | 76 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 75 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 74 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 74 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.37 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .306 | 5.16 | 16.3% | 4.9% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.11 | 113 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 1.57 | 4.96 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |