Emilio Pagán
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 208 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 85
ERA3.59
FIP3.67
K%27.0%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%18.9%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p4821.9%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
SL+1.3 (21%)
FB (60%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 42 | 0 | 78 | 326 | 88 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 2.53 | 3.42 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 42 | 0 | 78 | 326 | 88 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 27.0% | 8.0% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 2.53 | 2.68 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 84 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.2% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 2.49 | 4.28 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 84 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.1% | 10.7% | 20.4% | 2.6% | 2.49 | 3.25 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 82 | 321 | 92 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.3% | 5.1% | 22.2% | 2.3% | 2.96 | 2.70 | +2.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 82 | 321 | 92 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 5.0% | 23.7% | 2.2% | 2.96 | 2.55 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 74 | 18 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 5.2% | 4.24 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 74 | 18 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 19.6% | 5.2% | 4.24 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 1 | 76 | 293 | 106 | 16 | 12 | 1% | 1.1 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 31.5% | 4.8% | 2.13 | 3.24 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 1 | 76 | 293 | 106 | 16 | 12 | 1% | 1.1 | 36.2% | 5.5% | 30.7% | 4.1% | 2.13 | 2.99 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 0 | 22 | 87 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 4.9% | 4.50 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 0 | 22 | 87 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 4.50 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 67 | 0 | 63 | 263 | 69 | 18 | 16 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 6.8% | 19.4% | 6.5% | 4.83 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 67 | 0 | 63 | 263 | 69 | 18 | 16 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 6.8% | 19.4% | 6.1% | 4.83 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 63 | 274 | 84 | 24 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.7% | 8.8% | 21.9% | 4.3% | 4.43 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 63 | 274 | 84 | 24 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.7% | 8.8% | 21.9% | 4.4% | 4.43 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 66 | 1 | 69 | 273 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 1.8% | 2.99 | 2.97 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 66 | 1 | 69 | 273 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 1.8% | 2.99 | 2.98 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 41 | 169 | 47 | 11 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 3.61 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 41 | 169 | 47 | 11 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 6.5% | 21.3% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 3.51 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 69 | 270 | 81 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 8.1% | 21.9% | 3.5% | 2.88 | 3.53 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 69 | 270 | 81 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 8.1% | 21.9% | 3.7% | 2.88 | 3.60 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 20 | 1 | 18 | 79 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 5% | 0.9 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 5.40 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CIN | 34 | 0 | 35 | 150 | 40 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.1% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.67 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 40 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 8.1% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.67 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 54 | 229 | 56 | 19 | 8 | — | — | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 4.21 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 52 | 219 | 56 | 19 | 8 | — | — | 25.8% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 3.7% | 4.37 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 51 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 4.56 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 4.6% | 4.96 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 51 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 4.56 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 4.6% | 4.96 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 643 | 2 | 679 | 2780 | 766 | 207 | 114 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 4.1% | 3.87 | 3.96 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 1 | 200 | 819 | 226 | 61 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 4.1% | 3.87 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 615 | 4 | 715 | 2911 | 787 | 221 | 108 | 1% | 1.2 | 27.0% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 3.7% | 3.40 | 3.82 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 1 | 200 | 814 | 220 | 62 | 30 | 1% | 1.2 | 27.0% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 3.7% | 3.40 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emilio Pagán (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.81 | 28.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.76 | 25.4% | 16.1% | 120 | +0.95 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 76 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 72 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 71 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 69 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.55 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 67 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 67 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 66 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 65 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 65 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 64 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 64 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.68 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 268 | 64 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.77 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 186 | 63 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 62 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 62 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 26.4% | 8.8% | 1.48 | 4.30 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Heath Hembree ('22) | 7 | 45 | 25.6% | 9.4% | 1.58 | 4.22 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |