Emilio Pagán — OGILVIE

Emilio Pagán P Cincinnati Reds

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.45

FIP3.53

K%26.9%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%19.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

SL+1.3 (19%)

FB (63%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	42	0	78	326	88	26	5	0%	1.9	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	1.8%	2.53	3.48	—
2015	24	A+ RAW	Bakersfield Blaze	42	0	78	326	88	26	5	0%	1.9	27.0%	8.0%	19.0%	1.5%	2.53	2.68	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	65	270	84	29	7	0%	1.6	26.2%	11.5%	14.7%	3.2%	2.49	4.08	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	65	270	84	29	7	0%	1.6	31.1%	10.7%	20.4%	2.6%	2.49	3.25	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	82	321	92	16	7	0%	1.4	27.3%	5.1%	22.2%	2.2%	2.96	2.67	+1.9
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	82	321	92	16	7	0%	1.4	28.7%	5.0%	23.7%	2.2%	2.96	2.55	+2.0
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	68	286	74	18	15	0%	1.1	24.0%	6.9%	17.2%	5.5%	4.24	4.93	-0.3
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	68	286	74	18	15	0%	1.1	25.9%	6.3%	19.6%	5.2%	4.24	4.59	-0.0
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	1	76	293	106	16	12	1%	1.1	36.0%	4.5%	31.5%	4.6%	2.13	3.17	+1.3
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	1	76	293	106	16	12	1%	1.1	36.2%	5.5%	30.7%	4.1%	2.13	2.99	+1.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	22	0	22	87	23	9	4	0%	1.0	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	4.5%	4.50	4.64	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	22	0	22	87	23	9	4	0%	1.0	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	4.6%	4.50	4.60	-0.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	67	0	63	263	69	18	16	0%	0.9	26.2%	6.8%	19.4%	5.9%	4.83	5.01	-0.3
2021	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	67	0	63	263	69	18	16	0%	0.9	26.2%	6.8%	19.4%	6.1%	4.83	5.06	-0.4
2022	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	63	274	84	24	12	0%	1.1	30.7%	8.8%	21.9%	4.4%	4.43	4.01	+0.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	63	274	84	24	12	0%	1.1	30.7%	8.8%	21.9%	4.4%	4.43	4.05	+0.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	66	1	69	273	65	19	5	2%	1.1	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	1.8%	2.99	2.97	+1.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	66	1	69	273	65	19	5	2%	1.1	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	1.8%	2.99	2.97	+1.3
2023	32	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	66	1	69	273	65	19	5	2%	1.1	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	1.8%	2.99	2.98	+1.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	41	169	47	11	6	2%	1.0	27.8%	7.0%	20.9%	3.5%	4.61	3.56	+0.5
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	41	169	47	11	6	2%	1.0	27.8%	7.0%	20.9%	3.5%	4.61	3.56	+0.5
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	41	169	47	11	6	2%	1.0	27.8%	6.5%	21.3%	3.6%	4.61	3.51	+0.5
2025	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	70	0	69	270	81	22	10	0%	1.0	30.0%	8.1%	21.9%	3.4%	2.88	3.48	+0.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	70	0	69	270	81	22	10	0%	1.0	30.0%	8.1%	21.9%	3.4%	2.88	3.48	+0.9
2025	34	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	70	0	69	270	81	22	10	0%	1.0	30.0%	8.1%	21.9%	3.7%	2.88	3.60	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			517	2	544	2205	619	150	92	0%	1.1	28.1%	6.8%	21.3%	4.2%	3.67	3.85	+4.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	42	1	40	161	38	9	7	2%	0.9	24.5%	5.8%	18.7%	4.2%	3.63	4.06	+0.2
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	42	1	40	161	38	9	7	2%	0.9	24.5%	5.8%	18.7%	4.2%	3.63	4.06	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AAA RAW	CIN	2	1	2	6	0	0	0	50%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	CIN	40	0	38	155	38	9	7	0%	0.9	24.5%	5.8%	18.7%	4.5%	3.82	4.24	+0.1
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	CIN	40	0	38	155	38	9	7	0%	0.9	24.5%	5.8%	18.7%	4.5%	3.82	4.24	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB MLE	CIN	4	0	5	20	5	1	1	0%	1.2	26.9%	7.2%	19.7%	3.3%	3.45	3.53	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB CTX	CIN	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	26.9%	7.2%	19.7%	3.3%	3.45	3.53	+0.1
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	44	181	43	10	8	—	—	24.0%	5.8%	18.2%	4.2%	3.61	4.00	+0.3
FULL	35	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	42	179	43	10	8	—	—	24.2%	5.8%	18.4%	4.3%	3.78	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	CIN	44	0	46	193	51	15	7	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	3.9%	4.19	4.37	+0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	CIN	38	0	40	169	43	14	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	4.3%	4.54	4.77	-0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	CIN	44	0	46	194	51	15	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	3.9%	4.19	4.37	+0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	43	14	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	4.3%	4.54	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		603	2	635	2587	718	181	107	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.0%	20.8%	4.2%	3.76	3.92	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	1	200	815	226	57	34	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.0%	20.8%	4.2%	3.76	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		637	4	736	2993	809	223	109	1%	1.2	27.0%	7.5%	19.6%	3.6%	3.36	3.76	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	1	200	813	220	61	30	1%	1.2	27.0%	7.5%	19.6%	3.6%	3.36	3.76	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emilio Pagán (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	28.8%	7.8%	3.2%	—	4.56	25.8%	17.7%	86	+0.77	—	—	—
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	80
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	74
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	72
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	71
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	71
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	69
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	69
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	68
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	68
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	67
Carlos Torres R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	35	SU	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.28	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.39	2.89	326	67
Shawn Kelley R 2019 · 4.97 FIP	35	SU	4.97	21.0%	4.4%	5.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	232	66
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	66
Brandon Morrow R 2018 · 2.82 FIP	34	SU	2.82	25.4%	7.4%	1.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	186	66
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	66
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	66
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	66
Tony Pena Jr. R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	21.5%	4.3%	1.9%	.249	3.43	10.9%	6.6%	22	+0.56	2.80	128	65
Joe Blanton R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	35	SU	3.01	25.4%	7.0%	2.1%	.233	4.94	20.0%	14.4%	44	+1.93	3.01	240	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	26.9%	8.0%	1.45	4.11
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97