Emilio Pagán
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 208 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA3.65
FIP3.89
xFIP5.42
SIERA4.70
K%27.7%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%19.6%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF5555
CTRL5050
CMD6565
K†6565
SL+1.3 (21%)
FB (59%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 42 | 0 | 78 | 326 | 88 | 26 | 5 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 1.8% | 2.53 | 3.48 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 41 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 84 | 29 | 7 | 26.2% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 2.49 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 57 | 0 | 82 | 321 | 92 | 16 | 7 | 27.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 2.96 | 2.59 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 60 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 74 | 18 | 15 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.24 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 70 | 1 | 76 | 293 | 106 | 16 | 12 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.13 | 3.18 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 0 | 22 | 87 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 26.4% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.50 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 67 | 0 | 63 | 263 | 69 | 18 | 16 | 26.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.83 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 63 | 274 | 84 | 24 | 12 | 30.7% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 4.43 | 3.86 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 66 | 1 | 69 | 273 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 2.99 | 3.06 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 41 | 1 | 41 | 169 | 47 | 11 | 6 | 27.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 3.44 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 69 | 270 | 81 | 22 | 10 | 30.0% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 2.88 | 3.47 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 9 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.82 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CIN | 17 | — | 17 | 70 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 28.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 3.84 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 26 | 110 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 26.3% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.03 | 2.46 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 54 | 18 | 7 | 26.6% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.06 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 49 | 17 | 7 | 25.8% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 25.0% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.45 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 604 | 3 | 706 | 2872 | 778 | 219 | 103 | 27.1% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 3.37 | 3.75 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 1 | 200 | 814 | 220 | 62 | 29 | 27.1% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 3.37 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emilio Pagán (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 28.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.39 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 135 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 70 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 69 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 68 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.68 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.90 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.22 | 3.43 | 132 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 66 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 66 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.61 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 268 | 66 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.72 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 303 | 66 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 66 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 197 | 66 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 65 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.