Jonah Tong — OGILVIE

Jonah Tong P Syracuse Mets

+0.9 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.1 · 2029

ERA5.32

FIP3.72

xFIP3.96

SIERA4.11

K%27.6%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%16.7%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2029

OFP—55

K†6565

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

CU (12%)

SL (3%)

CH-1.6 (27%)

FB-4.0 (57%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	28.8%	27.5%	2.2%	6.00	5.37	-0.1
2024	21	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	25.8%	11.5%	0.5%	3.03	2.63	+3.4
2025	22	MLB	New York Mets	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	31.7%	11.9%	1.1%	2.31	2.53	+4.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Syracuse Mets	4	4	15	68	23	10	4	29.8%	15.4%	6.5%	7.04	6.09	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	NYM	48	—	48	203	56	22	4	27.6%	10.9%	2.2%	5.32	3.72	+0.7
2026 Total	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	63	271	79	32	8	29.2%	11.9%	3.1%	5.74	4.29	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	NYM	25	25	139	587	162	59	13	27.6%	10.0%	2.2%	4.33	3.64	+2.6
2028	25	MLB	NYM	28	28	153	645	178	61	15	27.6%	9.5%	2.3%	3.91	3.60	+2.9
2029	26	MLB	NYM	29	29	160	674	185	63	16	27.5%	9.3%	2.3%	3.74	3.61	+3.1
2030	27	MLB	NYM	30	30	162	686	188	64	16	27.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.68	3.63	+3.1
2031	28	MLB	NYM	29	29	162	684	187	64	16	27.3%	9.4%	2.4%	3.67	3.66	+3.0
2032	29	MLB	NYM	29	29	158	669	180	63	16	26.9%	9.4%	2.4%	3.71	3.73	+2.8
2033	30	MLB	NYM	28	28	154	649	171	62	16	26.3%	9.5%	2.5%	3.78	3.82	+2.6
2034	31	MLB	NYM	27	27	148	626	161	60	16	25.7%	9.7%	2.5%	3.87	3.93	+2.3
2035	32	MLB	NYM	26	26	142	601	151	59	16	25.1%	9.8%	2.6%	3.97	4.04	+2.0
2036	33	MLB	NYM	25	25	136	574	140	57	16	24.4%	10.0%	2.7%	4.09	4.17	+1.7
2037	34	MLB	NYM	23	23	129	546	129	56	15	23.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.22	4.31	+1.5
2038	35	MLB	NYM	22	22	122	514	118	54	15	23.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.36	4.46	+1.2
2039	36	MLB	NYM	21	21	114	481	107	51	15	22.2%	10.7%	3.0%	4.52	4.63	+0.9
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			66	62	282	1165	337	155	15	29.0%	13.3%	1.3%	3.13	3.02	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—			47	44	200	827	239	110	11	29.0%	13.3%	1.3%	3.13	3.02	+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonah Tong (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.72	27.6%	10.9%	2.2%	—	3.62	27.5%	18.0%	451	-0.10	—	—	—
Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	28.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.270	4.50	21.7%	5.4%	130	+0.78	3.72	164	87
Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.31	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.83	3.48	290	86
Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.93	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.34	3.29	201	86
Zack Burdi R 2025 · 2.69 FIP	22	SU	2.69	29.7%	11.1%	1.3%	.341	6.70	20.0%	5.3%	20	+4.01	2.69	132	86
River Ryan R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	26.1%	12.2%	2.2%	.321	3.86	20.4%	9.1%	134	+0.19	3.24	182	86
Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	26.9%	12.4%	3.1%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.48	4.10	130	84
Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	83
Nic Enright R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.50	249	82
Brooks Kriske R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.81	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.33	3.04	230	82
Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	23	SU	3.15	25.9%	11.8%	1.3%	.257	4.43	17.8%	8.6%	182	+1.28	3.15	290	82
Shane Smith R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SW	3.53	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.55	23.8%	14.9%	234	+0.02	2.98	292	81
Enrique Burgos R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	29.8%	12.8%	2.7%	.383	4.02	22.5%	8.7%	104	+0.33	1.61	162	81
Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	27.5%	10.6%	3.8%	.263	3.63	28.9%	25.8%	37	-0.57	3.02	190	81
Eli Villalobos R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.337	4.99	23.1%	9.0%	153	+1.24	3.75	198	81
Trey Wingenter R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	26.7%	10.8%	4.0%	.257	3.61	30.0%	16.8%	114	-0.77	2.81	293	81
Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	23	SU	2.93	24.7%	8.1%	1.6%	.314	3.71	19.9%	6.2%	166	+0.78	2.93	188	80
Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	23	SU	3.35	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.68	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.33	3.35	102	80
Daniel Cruz R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	27.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	80
Bryan Garcia R 2025 · 2.59 FIP	22	SU	2.59	27.2%	9.4%	1.1%	.262	4.16	17.8%	7.1%	55	+1.57	2.59	319	80
Neil Ramírez R 2029 · 3.10 FIP	26	SU	3.10	25.0%	10.0%	1.5%	.289	4.77	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.67	3.10	220	79

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$21M	+$21M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.0	$25M	+$25M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+3.1	$27M	+$18M
2030	Arb-2	$16M	+3.1	$28M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$24M	+3.0	$28M	+$4M
Totals		$52M		$133M	+$81M