Jonah Tong — OGILVIE

Jonah Tong P Syracuse Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.66

FIP3.43

K%28.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p3920.6%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

CU (12%)

SL (3%)

CH-1.6 (27%)

FB-4.0 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$15M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$16M	+$16M
2029	Arb-1	$12M	+2.5	$16M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$20M	+2.4	$14M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$28M	+2.2	$12M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$33M		$73M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	28.8%	27.5%	1.3%	2.3%	6.00	5.41	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	28.8%	27.5%	1.3%	2.3%	6.00	5.41	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	38.0%	22.0%	16.0%	3.0%	6.00	4.48	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	25.8%	11.5%	14.3%	0.4%	3.03	2.61	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	25.8%	11.5%	14.3%	0.4%	3.03	2.61	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	34.2%	10.0%	24.1%	0.6%	3.03	1.86	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	1.1%	2.31	2.54	+4.0
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	1.1%	2.31	2.54	+4.0
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	38.0%	10.6%	27.4%	0.9%	2.31	1.82	+5.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	6	34	155	36	17	5	67%	3.7	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	3.2%	6.42	4.41	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	27	24	122	535	140	67	24	89%	4.5	22.2%	11.4%	10.7%	4.9%	4.57	5.36	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	27	24	122	535	140	67	24	89%	4.5	22.2%	11.4%	10.7%	4.9%	4.57	5.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	NYM	23	23	107	467	126	59	22	100%	4.7	27.0%	12.6%	14.3%	4.7%	4.54	5.01	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	NYM	4	1	15	68	14	8	2	25%	3.8	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.47	+0.0
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	NYM	4	1	15	68	14	8	2	25%	3.8	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.47	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	9	39	11	5	1	100%	4.7	28.8%	12.0%	16.8%	2.3%	3.66	3.43	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB CTX	NYM	2	2	9	38	11	5	1	100%	4.5	28.8%	12.0%	16.8%	2.3%	3.66	3.43	+0.2
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	131	574	151	72	25	—	—	26.4%	12.5%	13.9%	4.3%	4.51	5.23	-0.5
FULL	23	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	24	103	151	72	25	—	—	147.4%	69.9%	77.6%	24.2%	24.36	12.81	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	148	627	181	69	15	100%	5.5	28.9%	10.9%	17.9%	2.3%	3.85	3.70	+2.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	168	711	205	73	17	100%	5.8	28.8%	10.3%	18.5%	2.4%	3.74	3.64	+2.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	175	739	212	75	18	100%	6.0	28.6%	10.1%	18.5%	2.4%	3.70	3.65	+2.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	728	207	74	18	100%	5.9	28.5%	10.1%	18.3%	2.5%	3.71	3.70	+2.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	728	206	75	19	100%	5.9	28.3%	10.3%	18.1%	2.6%	3.76	3.79	+2.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	165	695	193	73	19	100%	6.1	27.8%	10.5%	17.3%	2.7%	3.87	3.95	+1.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	155	653	177	71	19	100%	5.9	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	2.9%	4.04	4.16	+1.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	144	609	160	68	19	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.25	4.39	+0.9
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	134	564	144	65	19	100%	6.1	25.5%	11.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.49	4.64	+0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	122	517	127	62	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	12.0%	12.7%	3.7%	4.75	4.92	-0.0
2037	34	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	112	471	112	59	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.5%	11.2%	4.0%	5.04	5.23	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	141	595	172	65	14	100%	5.6	28.9%	10.9%	17.9%	2.3%	3.85	3.70	+2.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	160	676	194	69	16	100%	5.9	28.8%	10.3%	18.5%	2.3%	3.74	3.64	+2.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	28	28	166	701	201	71	17	100%	5.9	28.6%	10.1%	18.5%	2.4%	3.70	3.65	+2.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	164	692	197	70	17	100%	6.1	28.5%	10.1%	18.3%	2.4%	3.71	3.70	+2.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	164	692	196	71	18	100%	6.1	28.3%	10.3%	18.1%	2.5%	3.76	3.79	+2.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	156	659	183	69	18	100%	6.0	27.8%	10.5%	17.3%	2.7%	3.87	3.95	+1.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	147	621	168	67	18	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	2.9%	4.04	4.16	+1.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYM	23	23	137	578	152	64	18	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.25	4.39	+0.8
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	127	536	137	62	18	100%	6.0	25.5%	11.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.49	4.64	+0.4
2036	33	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	116	490	121	59	18	100%	6.1	24.6%	12.0%	12.7%	3.6%	4.74	4.91	-0.0
2037	34	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	101	426	101	53	17	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.5%	11.2%	3.9%	5.03	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		276	273	1622	6863	1870	743	193	99%	5.9	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	2.8%	4.09	3.72	+23.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	231	92	24	99%	5.9	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	2.8%	4.09	3.72	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		89	82	388	1632	436	205	36	92%	4.4	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	2.2%	3.43	3.66	+16.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	841	224	106	19	92%	4.4	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	2.2%	3.43	3.66	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonah Tong (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.60	30.9%	12.1%	2.2%	—	3.66	28.8%	18.3%	492	+0.06	—	—	—
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	79
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	76
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	76
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	75
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	75
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	73
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.82	19.3%	9.9%	170	+1.22	2.60	268	72
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	71
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	71
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	71
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	71
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	70
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	70
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	69
Max Meyer R 2022 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP	3.37	25.0%	8.7%	2.3%	.243	4.89	21.7%	14.0%	180	+1.52	3.37	450	69
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	69
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	69
Logan Rinehart R 2022 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	23.3%	11.6%	2.2%	.313	3.82	24.0%	13.4%	85	+0.00	2.31	162	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	148	27.5%	10.9%	1.08	4.04
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12