Jonah Tong — OGILVIE

Jonah Tong P Syracuse Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.9 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9889vR 80

ERA3.69

FIP3.44

K%29.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%17.8%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†7070

CU (12%)

SL (3%)

CH-1.6 (27%)

FB-4.0 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$11M	+1.5	$10M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$18M	+1.4	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$26M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$47M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	28.8%	27.5%	1.3%	2.2%	6.00	5.36	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	10	8	21	100	38	22	3	80%	2.1	38.0%	22.0%	16.0%	3.0%	6.00	4.48	—
2024	21	MIX	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	25.8%	11.5%	14.3%	0.3%	3.03	2.57	—
2024	21	MIX	3 levels	25	23	113	468	160	47	3	92%	4.5	34.2%	10.0%	24.1%	0.6%	3.03	1.86	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	1.1%	2.31	2.55	+4.4
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	27	27	132	529	201	56	5	100%	4.9	38.0%	10.6%	27.4%	0.9%	2.31	1.82	+5.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	New York Mets	18	15	76	345	89	46	16	83%	4.2	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%	5.5%	5.68	5.83	-0.8
ROS	23	MLB	NYM	11	11	59	249	74	30	6	100%	5.4	29.8%	12.0%	17.8%	2.4%	3.69	3.44	+0.8
ROS	23	MLB	NYM	11	11	59	249	74	30	6	100%	5.4	29.8%	12.0%	17.8%	2.4%	3.69	3.44	+0.8
2026 TOT	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	135	594	163	76	22	—	—	27.5%	12.8%	14.7%	3.7%	4.81	4.79	+1.0
2026 FULL	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	69	291	163	76	22	—	—	56.1%	26.1%	30.0%	7.6%	9.42	5.83	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYM	23	23	131	554	159	61	12	100%	5.7	28.7%	11.0%	17.7%	2.2%	3.83	3.67	+2.7
2028	25	MLB	NYM	26	26	151	637	182	66	14	100%	5.8	28.6%	10.3%	18.3%	2.3%	3.72	3.62	+3.1
2029	26	MLB	NYM	27	27	163	687	196	70	16	100%	6.0	28.5%	10.2%	18.3%	2.3%	3.68	3.63	+3.4
2030	27	MLB	NYM	27	27	160	677	192	69	16	100%	5.9	28.3%	10.2%	18.2%	2.4%	3.69	3.68	+3.2
2031	28	MLB	NYM	26	26	156	657	185	68	16	100%	6.0	28.2%	10.3%	17.9%	2.5%	3.73	3.76	+3.0
2032	29	MLB	NYM	25	25	149	627	173	66	16	100%	5.9	27.6%	10.5%	17.1%	2.6%	3.85	3.92	+2.6
2033	30	MLB	NYM	23	23	140	590	159	64	17	100%	6.1	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.13	+2.1
2034	31	MLB	NYM	22	22	130	550	144	62	17	100%	5.9	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.36	+1.6
2035	32	MLB	NYM	20	20	120	509	129	59	17	100%	6.0	25.4%	11.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.46	4.62	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	NYM	18	18	111	467	114	56	17	100%	6.1	24.5%	12.0%	12.5%	3.6%	4.72	4.90	+0.6
2027	24	MLB	NYM	22	22	125	528	152	58	12	100%	5.7	28.7%	11.0%	17.7%	2.2%	3.83	3.67	+2.5
2028	25	MLB	NYM	24	24	143	604	173	62	14	100%	6.0	28.6%	10.3%	18.3%	2.3%	3.72	3.62	+3.0
2029	26	MLB	NYM	26	26	155	654	186	66	15	100%	6.0	28.5%	10.2%	18.3%	2.3%	3.68	3.63	+3.2
2030	27	MLB	NYM	25	25	152	642	182	65	15	100%	6.1	28.3%	10.2%	18.2%	2.4%	3.69	3.68	+3.1
2031	28	MLB	NYM	25	25	148	625	176	64	15	100%	5.9	28.2%	10.3%	17.9%	2.5%	3.73	3.76	+2.8
2032	29	MLB	NYM	24	24	141	595	164	63	16	100%	5.9	27.6%	10.5%	17.1%	2.6%	3.85	3.92	+2.4
2033	30	MLB	NYM	22	22	133	562	151	61	16	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.13	+2.0
2034	31	MLB	NYM	21	21	124	524	137	59	16	100%	5.9	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.36	+1.5
2035	32	MLB	NYM	19	19	114	481	122	56	16	100%	6.0	25.4%	11.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.46	4.62	+1.0
2036	33	MLB	NYM	18	18	105	443	109	53	16	100%	5.8	24.5%	12.0%	12.5%	3.6%	4.72	4.90	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			245	242	1428	6041	1655	654	160	99%	5.8	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.61	+29.8
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	846	232	92	22	99%	5.8	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.61	+4.2
Career	—			80	73	342	1442	401	192	29	91%	4.3	27.8%	13.3%	14.5%	2.0%	3.52	3.54	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—			47	43	200	842	234	112	17	91%	4.3	27.8%	13.3%	14.5%	2.0%	3.52	3.54	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonah Tong (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.55	31.0%	11.8%	2.2%	—	3.64	28.6%	18.1%	445	+0.09	—	—	—
River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.1%	12.2%	2.1%	.321	3.86	20.4%	9.1%	134	+0.28	2.13	218	78
Shohei Ohtani R 2027 · 3.52 FIP	24	SP	3.52	29.9%	10.4%	2.9%	.267	3.23	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.85	613	77
Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP	24	SP-	3.29	23.4%	11.9%	1.2%	.316	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	109	+1.31	3.29	142	76
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	76
Kyle Funkhouser R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP	3.45	24.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.329	4.35	19.0%	5.9%	193	+0.90	3.45	387	76
Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 2.94 FIP	23	SP	2.94	29.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.317	3.94	21.6%	13.6%	202	+1.00	1.95	230	75
Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP	3.45	30.2%	15.3%	1.8%	.250	4.82	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.37	3.45	102	75
Nolan Perry R 2025 · 3.24 FIP	22	SP	3.24	29.0%	9.7%	2.5%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	136	75
Nick Frasso R 2026 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.92	19.8%	9.4%	170	+1.32	2.60	248	73
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	73
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	72
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	72
Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	21.9%	9.2%	1.6%	.281	7.92	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.61	3.31	191	72
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	72
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	22.1%	14.4%	2.5%	.258	3.67	18.9%	11.8%	126	-0.75	3.27	218	71
Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	22.7%	9.7%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	194	71
Karson Milbrandt R 2025 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	25.6%	14.4%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	340	71
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	23	SP	3.12	24.5%	12.5%	0.9%	.214	4.35	24.6%	7.8%	11	+1.23	3.12	132	71
Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	70
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	134	27.6%	10.8%	1.02	3.95
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Mike Clevinger ('23)	7	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68