Cole Sands
P
Minnesota Twins
+0.5
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA3.75
FIP3.66
xFIP3.84
SIERA3.60
K%23.9%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%17.6%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†6060
FB+1.8 (46%)
CT (24%)
SI (8%)
CU (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 18 | 18 | 97 | 383 | 108 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 2.68 | 2.59 | +3.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 19 | 18 | 80 | 334 | 96 | 35 | 6 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 2.46 | 3.65 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 30 | 16 | 92 | 429 | 100 | 37 | 13 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.65 | 4.30 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 34 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 62 | 23 | 6 | 26.3% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 2.41 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 62 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 85 | 12 | 6 | 29.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 3.28 | 2.31 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 69 | 3 | 72 | 299 | 64 | 17 | 7 | 21.4% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.30 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 7 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.26 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 24.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.73 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 33 | 139 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.01 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 61 | 18 | 8 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.96 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 18 | 7 | 22.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 54 | 17 | 7 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 41 | 16 | 7 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 239 | 55 | 472 | 1982 | 461 | 154 | 45 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.38 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 23 | 200 | 840 | 195 | 65 | 19 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.38 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Sands (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.73 | 24.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.06 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 183 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 77 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 75 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.99 | 22.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .345 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 147 | +1.57 | 2.99 | 227 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.04 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .283 | 3.70 | 20.5% | 12.4% | 148 | +0.66 | 2.61 | 530 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 74 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.88 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.88 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.08 | 2.88 | 249 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.99 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.8% | .332 | 2.92 | 26.6% | 18.0% | 165 | -0.07 | 1.54 | 521 | 73 |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 2.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.58 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .323 | 3.07 | 30.9% | 21.5% | 63 | +0.49 | 2.58 | 121 | 73 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 72 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.82 | 23.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 72 |
| Carlos Torres R 2029 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.68 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.49 | 2.89 | 326 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 71 |
| Cody Mincey R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.48 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 0.9% | .239 | 5.59 | 13.9% | 5.5% | 114 | +3.11 | 2.48 | 147 | 71 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.86 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.49 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 127 | +1.63 | 2.86 | 596 | 71 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 71 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.23 | 22.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 161 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.099 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $7M | +$1.0M | ||