Gabriel Hughes P Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%17.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
K: +0.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: +0.3 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+0BBCONTACT: +7.5 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+7CONTACTSTAM: +15.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+16STAMTotal WAR: +2.50 (115 IP)+2.5WAR
0.00.51.01.00.20.20.2+$9M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF4550
CTRL50
CMD4045
K†4045
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSPre-Arb$0.3M+1.0$8M+$8M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Arb-1$2M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $10M +$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202220AFresno Grizzlies11311110100%3.09.1%9.1%0.0%0.0%0.003.48
202220AFresno Grizzlies11311110100%3.09.1%9.1%0.0%0.0%0.003.43
202321MIX2 levels141467293832612100%4.822.2%10.0%12.2%4.6%6.215.02
202321MIX2 levels141467293832612100%4.828.3%8.9%19.5%4.1%6.214.12
202523MIX3 levels2424105442883813100%4.416.4%9.1%7.3%3.0%4.194.49
202523MIX3 levels2424105442883813100%4.419.9%8.6%11.3%2.9%4.194.12
▸ 2026 Season
202624MLBColorado Rockies1310562316617277%4.324.4%6.7%17.7%1.3%4.372.58+1.3
ROS24MLBCOL11115925044247100%5.417.6%9.5%8.1%3.0%4.454.45+0.1
ROS24MLBCOL11115924944249100%5.417.6%9.5%8.1%3.4%4.694.69-0.1
2026 TOT24MLBCOL11548111041922.9%8.5%14.4%2.0%4.413.54+2.5
2026 FULL24MLBCOL68288110411138.2%14.2%24.0%3.7%7.633.68+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBCOL12126929254278100%5.818.4%9.4%9.0%2.9%4.744.70+0.0
202826MLBCOL12126929256278100%5.819.2%9.3%9.8%2.9%4.664.63+0.1
202927MLBCOL11116828856278100%6.219.4%9.4%10.0%2.9%4.654.65+0.1
202725MLBCOL11116627951269100%6.018.4%9.4%9.0%3.3%4.984.94-0.2
202826MLBCOL11116627954269100%6.019.2%9.3%9.8%3.3%4.904.87-0.2
202927MLBCOL11116527453269100%5.919.4%9.4%10.0%3.4%4.904.90-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career464526511142101053698%5.818.8%9.4%9.4%3.3%4.814.49+2.8
/ 200 IP3534200842159792798%5.818.8%9.4%9.4%3.3%4.814.49+2.1
Career5249231977195863094%4.419.9%8.8%11.1%3.0%4.764.19+3.3
/ 200 IP4542200847169752694%4.419.9%8.8%11.1%3.0%4.764.19+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Gabriel Hughes (OGILVIE) 5.05 16.3%9.8%3.1% 4.66 19.0%9.6%207 -0.39
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP 4.24 18.9%10.3%2.6%.329 4.33 21.3%10.9%132 +0.09 2.63 213 91
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP 23 SP 4.88 16.5%9.4%3.6%.288 5.29 21.7%7.0%57 +0.41 4.52 340 88
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP 25 SP 4.06 17.1%10.8%1.9%.300 4.86 11.6%-2.4%41 +0.80 4.06 120 87
Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP 25 SP 5.09 15.2%10.8%3.5%.274 5.06 13.1%-0.5%132 -0.03 4.10 218 86
Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 24 SP 4.39 16.1%11.4%2.2%.309 4.74 18.4%9.4%172 +0.35 4.39 353 86
Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP 24 SP 4.68 15.0%8.6%3.2%.305 5.95 18.2%7.9%55 +1.27 4.68 161 86
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP 25 SP 4.52 19.2%11.9%2.8%.279 5.47 15.6%5.5%168 +0.95 4.52 239 85
Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 24 SP 4.00 16.9%8.7%2.2%.317 4.33 21.6%11.4%121 +0.33 3.61 428 83
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP- 3.87 20.4%9.6%2.3%.300 4.37 19.6%9.8%143 +0.50 3.87 247 83
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP 23 SP- 4.37 19.5%10.5%2.9%.302 4.38 23.2%14.7%121 +0.01 3.42 237 82
Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP 24 SP 4.08 15.9%11.0%1.7%.266 5.68 20.8%8.1%29 +1.60 3.93 223 82
Evan Yates R 2025 · 4.51 FIP 23 SP 4.51 16.2%10.1%2.7%.287 3.45 169 82
Ricky Salinas R 2025 · 4.87 FIP 23 SP 4.87 15.8%10.5%3.2%.297 5.50 17.7%5.1%146 +0.63 4.87 274 82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP 25 SP- 4.28 16.0%10.5%2.2%.338 3.79 13.6%3.1%72 -0.49 3.79 143 82
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP 24 SP- 5.22 17.5%12.2%3.7%.293 4.57 22.2%10.9%274 -0.65 4.00 512 81
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP 24 SP- 4.38 17.0%6.5%3.4%.293 4.16 19.1%10.5%315 -0.22 3.50 472 81
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP 24 SP 4.43 18.0%10.5%2.8%.271 5.94 20.6%7.6%119 +1.51 4.43 358 81
Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP 24 SP 4.90 15.1%7.7%3.8%.322 4.72 19.9%10.6%76 -0.18 4.72 146 81
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 4.70 FIP 22 SP 4.70 17.1%9.8%3.3%.281 4.01 182 81
Austin Gordon R 2025 · 5.46 FIP 23 SP 5.46 17.4%9.5%4.8%.285 4.70 159 81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION46918.3%9.5%1.144.77
Travis Wood ('17)38520.8%9.8%1.344.72
Brandon Maurer ('18)45321.5%8.8%1.065.20
Joe Biagini ('19)48119.1%7.8%1.284.86
Adam Conley ('19)58319.7%9.5%1.174.82
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)49819.5%10.3%1.224.52
Josh Winckowski ('24)37718.3%8.2%1.134.21