Gabriel Hughes
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 238 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%17.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.48 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.43 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 67 | 293 | 83 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 6.21 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 67 | 293 | 83 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 28.3% | 8.9% | 19.5% | 4.1% | 6.21 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 105 | 442 | 88 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.49 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 105 | 442 | 88 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 13 | 10 | 56 | 231 | 66 | 17 | 2 | 77% | 4.3 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 1.3% | 4.37 | 2.58 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 59 | 250 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 59 | 249 | 44 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 115 | 481 | 110 | 41 | 9 | — | — | 22.9% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 4.41 | 3.54 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 68 | 288 | 110 | 41 | 11 | — | — | 38.2% | 14.2% | 24.0% | 3.7% | 7.63 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 54 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 51 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 45 | 265 | 1114 | 210 | 105 | 36 | 98% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.49 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 159 | 79 | 27 | 98% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 49 | 231 | 977 | 195 | 86 | 30 | 94% | 4.4 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.19 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 847 | 169 | 75 | 26 | 94% | 4.4 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Hughes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.66 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 207 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 91 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 88 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 87 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 86 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 86 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 86 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 85 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .317 | 4.33 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.61 | 428 | 83 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 83 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 82 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | 5.68 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 29 | +1.60 | 3.93 | 223 | 82 |
| Evan Yates R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 82 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .297 | 5.50 | 17.7% | 5.1% | 146 | +0.63 | 4.87 | 274 | 82 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 82 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 81 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 81 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 81 |
| Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 182 | 81 |
| Austin Gordon R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 1.14 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |