Gabriel Hughes — OGILVIE

Gabriel Hughes P Colorado Rockies

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 89

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%18.5%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD4045

K†3045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.7M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	100%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.48	—
2022	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	100%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	4.8%	6.21	5.12	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	4.8%	6.21	5.12	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	28.3%	8.9%	19.5%	4.1%	6.21	4.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	15.8%	8.1%	7.7%	3.1%	4.19	4.52	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	15.8%	8.1%	7.7%	3.1%	4.19	4.52	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	11	57	250	48	20	5	92%	4.8	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	2.0%	5.81	3.61	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	23	20	104	446	106	34	7	87%	4.5	20.8%	7.1%	13.7%	1.6%	5.28	3.10	+2.3
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	23	20	104	446	106	34	7	87%	4.5	20.8%	7.1%	13.7%	1.6%	5.28	3.10	+2.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	COL	2	2	6	23	10	3	0	100%	3.0	43.5%	13.0%	30.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.08	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	COL	9	7	41	173	48	11	2	78%	4.5	27.7%	6.4%	21.4%	1.2%	5.31	2.20	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	COL	12	11	57	250	48	20	5	92%	4.8	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	2.0%	5.81	3.59	+0.9
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	COL	12	11	57	250	48	20	5	92%	4.8	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	2.0%	5.81	3.59	+0.9
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	6	26	5	2	1	100%	6.2	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	3.0%	4.20	4.20	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	COL	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	3.4%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	110	472	111	36	8	—	—	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	1.6%	5.22	3.16	+2.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	64	268	111	36	8	—	—	41.3%	13.5%	27.9%	2.9%	9.08	2.93	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	115	486	90	40	14	100%	5.8	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	122	516	99	42	14	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.43	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	124	525	102	43	15	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	124	525	101	44	16	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.51	4.54	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	119	501	95	43	16	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.67	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	471	88	42	16	100%	5.9	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.3%	4.75	4.85	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	440	80	41	16	100%	6.1	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.5%	4.93	5.05	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	109	460	85	38	15	100%	5.7	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.2%	4.75	4.72	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	116	490	94	40	16	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.69	4.66	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	118	498	96	41	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.70	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	118	498	96	42	17	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.76	4.79	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	113	477	91	41	17	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.87	4.93	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	106	448	84	40	17	100%	5.9	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.8%	5.03	5.13	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	99	418	76	39	17	100%	6.2	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	4.1%	5.23	5.35	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	143	843	3566	676	303	121	99%	5.9	19.0%	8.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.91	4.44	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	160	72	29	99%	5.9	19.0%	8.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.91	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		62	59	279	1192	229	98	35	95%	4.5	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	2.9%	5.03	4.13	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	854	164	70	25	95%	4.5	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	2.9%	5.03	4.13	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	15.8%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.46	19.1%	10.8%	362	-0.54	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	90
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	88
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	86
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	85
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	84
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	84
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	83
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	83
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	83
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	83
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	81
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	81
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	111	18.7%	8.6%	1.18	4.63
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14