Gabriel Hughes

P Colorado Rockies

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	14	14	67	6.21	4.12	28.3%	8.9%	—	K 22.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.12
2025	23	MIX3 levels	24	24	105	4.19	4.12	19.9%	8.6%	—	K 16.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.49
2026	24	MIX3 levels	25	22	111	5.61	3.10	23.8%	7.7%	3.1	K 21.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	8	8	48	4.39	4.33	18.7%	7.9%	0.6
2028PROJ87% MLB	26	MLBCOL	10	10	58	4.54	4.50	19.4%	7.9%	0.8
2029PROJ90% MLB	27	MLBCOL	10	10	59	4.55	4.55	19.6%	7.9%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.465First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs57

K%34

FB Velo21

Form5.51 ERA (proj 4.39) · K 25.0% (proj 18.7%) · BB 6.9% (proj 7.9%) ▲▲ last 60d · 16 IP through Oct 27

CompsBlake Burkhalter (age 23) · Dylan Burns (age 25) · Zack Lee (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.39

FIP4.33

K%18.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.465 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	100%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.48	—
2022	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	100%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	4.8%	6.21	5.12	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	28.3%	8.9%	19.5%	4.1%	6.21	4.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.49	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.49	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	111	479	114	37	9	88%	4.4	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	1.8%	5.61	3.22	+3.0
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	111	479	114	37	9	88%	4.4	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	1.8%	5.61	3.22	+3.0
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	22	111	479	114	37	9	88%	4.4	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	1.9%	5.61	3.10	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	13	64	283	56	23	7	93%	4.6	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	2.5%	6.33	3.85	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	8	8	48	203	38	16	5	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.9%	10.7%	2.6%	4.39	4.33	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	67	282	55	22	7	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	2.6%	4.32	4.28	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	275	54	22	7	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.9%	11.6%	2.7%	4.32	4.32	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	62	260	51	21	7	100%	6.2	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	53	222	42	18	7	100%	5.8	19.0%	8.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.56	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	42	176	32	15	6	100%	5.9	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.76	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	5	5	31	130	23	12	4	100%	6.2	17.6%	8.9%	8.6%	3.4%	4.86	5.00	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	COL	4	4	21	90	15	8	3	100%	5.3	16.8%	9.3%	7.4%	3.6%	5.09	5.25	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	47	19	7	100%	5.8	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	59	249	49	20	8	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.9%	11.6%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	47	19	8	100%	5.7	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.3%	4.61	4.64	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	49	207	39	17	7	100%	6.1	19.0%	8.3%	10.7%	3.4%	4.73	4.81	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	39	165	30	14	6	100%	6.5	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.7%	4.92	5.03	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	29	122	22	11	5	100%	5.8	17.6%	8.9%	8.6%	3.9%	5.14	5.28	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	20	84	14	8	4	100%	6.7	16.8%	9.3%	7.4%	4.2%	5.40	5.56	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	65	375	1595	304	132	51	98%	5.7	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	3.2%	5.01	4.31	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	851	162	70	27	98%	5.7	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	3.2%	5.01	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		64	61	286	1225	240	101	37	95%	4.5	19.6%	8.2%	11.3%	3.0%	5.17	4.14	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	858	168	71	26	95%	4.5	19.6%	8.2%	11.3%	3.0%	5.17	4.14	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 41 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.51 (+0.31)K% 27.7% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.75%	—	×0.860	23.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×0.900	5.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 6 IPFIP 1.08 → 2.17 (+1.09)K% 43.5% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.48%	—	×0.770	33.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.150	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.08 → 2.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 62 IPFIP 4.76 → 4.98 (+0.22)K% 17.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.52%	—	×0.860	15.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×0.900	9.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.017	×1.100	3.55%

Result: FIP 4.76 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 41 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.62 (+0.36)K% 22.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.29%	—	×0.810	18.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.100	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.255	×1.200	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 38 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.31 (+1.16)K% 33.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.54%	—	×0.770	25.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.32%	—	×1.150	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.047	×1.250	3.71%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 29 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.12 (+0.90)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.97%	—	×0.810	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	5.30%	÷1.040	×1.200	6.12%

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.33	19.5%	11.5%	193	+0.00	—	—	—
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	82
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	82
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	80
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	79
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	79
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	79
Adam Maier R 2024 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP	3.58	16.3%	8.1%	1.5%	.323	5.13	14.3%	4.3%	188	+1.55	3.58	271	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	78
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	78
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	78
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	19.0%	8.3%	1.09	4.73
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*