Gabriel Hughes — OGILVIE

Gabriel Hughes P Albuquerque Isotopes

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2029

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%9.4%

IP98

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2023	21	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	6.21	5.15	-0.1
2025	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	16.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.19	4.62	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	4	3	18	78	21	4	1	23.7%	5.4%	1.4%	6.11	2.56	+0.5
ROS	24	MLB	COL	39	—	39	165	31	16	5	18.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.83	4.83	+0.1
2026 Total	24	MLB	COL	—	—	57	243	52	20	6	21.5%	8.1%	2.6%	5.23	4.12	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	COL	20	20	111	467	93	42	15	19.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.71	4.67	+0.8
2028	26	MLB	COL	21	21	118	497	101	44	16	20.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.63	4.60	+0.9
2029	27	MLB	COL	22	22	121	510	105	45	16	20.5%	8.9%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	+1.0
2030	28	MLB	COL	22	22	121	511	105	45	16	20.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.60	4.61	+0.9
2031	29	MLB	COL	22	22	118	499	102	45	16	20.4%	9.0%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	+0.9
2032	30	MLB	COL	21	21	115	485	98	44	16	20.2%	9.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.72	+0.8
2033	31	MLB	COL	20	20	111	468	93	43	16	20.0%	9.2%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	+0.6
2034	32	MLB	COL	19	19	106	449	88	42	15	19.7%	9.3%	3.4%	4.83	4.88	+0.5
2035	33	MLB	COL	18	18	102	429	83	41	15	19.4%	9.5%	3.5%	4.92	4.98	+0.4
2036	34	MLB	COL	18	18	96	407	77	40	15	19.0%	9.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.09	+0.2
2037	35	MLB	COL	17	17	91	384	72	38	14	18.6%	9.9%	3.7%	5.13	5.21	+0.0
2038	36	MLB	COL	15	15	85	359	65	37	14	18.2%	10.2%	3.8%	5.26	5.34	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			43	42	193	824	157	75	29	19.0%	9.1%	3.6%	5.00	4.60	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			45	44	200	855	163	78	30	19.0%	9.1%	3.6%	5.00	4.60	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	18.9%	9.5%	3.2%	—	4.62	20.3%	11.4%	349	-0.21	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	17.1%	9.6%	2.9%	.289	3.53	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.95	1.94	131	94
Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	24	SU	4.37	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.49	4.37	412	93
Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	18.0%	9.5%	2.8%	.296	5.22	18.2%	7.4%	37	+0.88	4.33	143	91
Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	19.1%	8.1%	3.4%	.275	4.54	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.16	4.12	230	90
Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.46	3.39	117	90
Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	89
Carlos Alvarado R 2027 · 4.87 FIP	25	SU	4.87	16.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.342	4.09	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.78	2.67	102	89
Jackson Rees R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.354	1.89	28.2%	20.8%	62	-2.58	1.89	103	88
Josh Uhen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	16.1%	9.7%	2.1%	.303	4.01	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.09	3.16	185	88
Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SU	3.87	18.9%	10.1%	2.0%	.270	5.33	17.4%	7.1%	148	+1.46	3.87	162	88
Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	24	SU	3.74	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.68	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.06	3.68	118	88
Justin Evans R 2026 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	19.2%	11.2%	4.5%	.333	3.90	22.0%	5.5%	65	-1.45	3.64	105	88
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	25	SU	3.83	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.38	3.83	181	88
Davison Palermo R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	24	SU	5.28	16.3%	11.2%	3.9%	.261	4.75	19.6%	8.2%	68	-0.53	4.30	151	88
Luis De La O R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.370	3.72	15.3%	10.8%	81	-0.65	3.22	145	87
Daniel Corcino R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.78	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.40	3.84	299	87
Micah Dallas R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	18.7%	7.1%	3.1%	.273	3.61	17.5%	9.0%	50	-0.48	3.61	147	87
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	87
Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	24	SU	4.32	15.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.312	4.58	14.5%	-1.1%	35	+0.26	4.32	117	87
Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.5M
Totals		$8M		$28M	+$19M