Adam Maier — OGILVIE

Adam Maier P Everett AquaSox

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%11.8%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	83	358	78	25	4	100%	4.4	16.3%	8.1%	8.2%	1.5%	4.10	3.58	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	83	358	78	25	4	100%	4.4	16.3%	8.1%	8.2%	1.5%	4.10	3.58	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	83	358	78	25	4	100%	4.4	21.8%	7.0%	14.8%	1.1%	4.10	2.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	100	444	77	45	11	87%	4.4	13.1%	11.7%	1.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	100	444	77	45	11	87%	4.4	13.1%	11.7%	1.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.25	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	100	444	77	45	11	87%	4.4	17.3%	10.1%	7.2%	2.5%	5.83	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	22	20	93	408	82	29	13	91%	4.2	15.5%	8.2%	7.3%	4.0%	5.24	5.01	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	22	20	93	408	82	29	13	91%	4.2	15.5%	8.2%	7.3%	4.0%	5.24	5.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	SEA	22	20	93	408	82	29	13	91%	4.2	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	3.2%	5.24	4.05	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	6	24	3	3	1	100%	5.7	11.8%	12.7%	-0.9%	2.9%	5.70	5.70	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	98	432	85	32	14	—	—	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.2%	5.27	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	92	388	55	46	11	100%	5.7	14.2%	12.0%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.41	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	92	388	60	45	11	100%	6.1	15.5%	11.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.30	5.25	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	90	382	61	44	11	100%	6.0	15.8%	11.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.24	5.24	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	88	371	59	43	11	100%	5.9	15.9%	11.6%	4.3%	3.1%	5.26	5.30	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	84	354	55	42	11	100%	6.0	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%	3.2%	5.36	5.43	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	79	333	57	38	11	100%	6.1	17.3%	11.3%	6.0%	3.4%	5.35	5.34	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	40	169	24	20	5	100%	5.7	14.2%	12.0%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.41	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	61	258	40	30	8	100%	6.1	15.5%	11.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.30	5.25	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	70	296	47	34	9	100%	5.8	15.8%	11.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.24	5.24	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	74	312	50	36	10	100%	6.2	15.9%	11.6%	4.3%	3.1%	5.26	5.30	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	73	308	48	36	10	100%	6.1	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%	3.2%	5.36	5.43	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	71	300	52	34	10	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.3%	6.0%	3.4%	5.35	5.34	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	389	1641	260	190	51	100%	6.0	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	3.1%	5.32	4.94	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	134	98	26	100%	6.0	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	3.1%	5.32	4.94	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		64	59	276	1210	180	114	36	92%	4.3	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	3.0%	5.11	4.68	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	876	130	83	26	92%	4.3	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	3.0%	5.11	4.68	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Maier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	11.8%	12.7%	2.9%	—	5.30	15.2%	3.5%	274	-0.40	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	83
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	82
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	82
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.32	14.3%	6.0%	217	-0.27	3.80	399	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	80
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	80
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Jacob Dahlstrand R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	24	SP	5.41	7.4%	10.1%	3.0%	.294	5.73	8.6%	-5.2%	77	+0.32	3.06	119	78
Branden Kline R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	12.7%	12.2%	2.3%	.254	2.85	21.4%	14.7%	66	-2.00	2.85	167	78
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	78
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	77
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	77
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	15.2%	11.7%	1.19	5.37
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48