Bryce Warrecker — OGILVIE

Bryce Warrecker P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 RHP 6'8" / 225 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%19.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

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K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	65	293	46	30	7	100%	3.4	11.3%	11.7%	-0.5%	3.3%	5.79	5.43	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	65	293	46	30	7	100%	3.4	11.3%	11.7%	-0.5%	3.3%	5.79	5.43	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	65	293	46	30	7	100%	3.4	15.7%	10.2%	5.5%	2.4%	5.79	4.46	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	1	57	216	61	13	1	2%	1.4	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	0.6%	2.05	2.47	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	1	57	216	61	13	1	2%	1.4	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	0.6%	2.05	2.47	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	1	57	216	61	13	1	2%	1.4	28.2%	6.0%	22.2%	0.5%	2.05	1.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	31	0	43	181	38	23	5	0%	1.4	17.4%	16.5%	0.9%	4.3%	2.93	6.08	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	31	0	43	181	38	23	5	0%	1.4	17.4%	16.5%	0.9%	4.3%	2.93	6.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	NYY	6	0	9	35	5	2	0	0%	1.5	14.3%	5.7%	8.6%	0.0%	0.00	2.62	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	NYY	25	0	34	146	33	21	5	0%	1.4	22.6%	14.4%	8.2%	3.4%	3.71	4.89	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	26	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.2%	11.1%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	49	207	43	25	6	—	—	20.8%	12.1%	8.6%	2.8%	3.11	5.86	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	65	0	68	287	58	23	8	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.26	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	65	0	68	287	60	23	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	2.7%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	64	0	67	283	59	23	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	62	0	65	274	57	23	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	28	0	29	122	25	10	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.26	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	43	0	45	190	40	15	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	2.7%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	46	18	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	52	0	55	232	48	20	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	159	63	21	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.30	3.91	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	70	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.30	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		90	20	165	690	111	79	19	22%	1.8	16.2%	11.5%	4.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.67	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	24	200	835	135	96	22	22%	1.8	16.2%	11.5%	4.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.67	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Warrecker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	19.2%	8.2%	2.7%	—	4.26	20.7%	12.5%	203	-0.10	—	—	—
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	89
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	89
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	89
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	89
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	88
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Mayckol Guaipe R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	24	SU	3.97	17.0%	7.1%	2.6%	.330	2.49	21.2%	16.0%	33	-1.48	1.88	136	87
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	87
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	87
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	87
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	86
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	86
Rob Griswold R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.8%	8.3%	3.2%	.244	4.34	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.13	3.57	203	86
Blaze Pontes R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	23	SU	3.61	18.2%	9.4%	1.6%	.330	4.79	11.3%	-0.9%	187	+1.18	3.37	248	86
J.C. Flowers R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	17.6%	8.9%	2.3%	.263	5.44	15.6%	-0.3%	133	+1.42	3.59	281	86
Mick VanVossen R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	18.6%	8.9%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	141	86
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	86
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	20.4%	8.2%	1.06	4.31
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47