Bryce Warrecker

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 RHP 6'8" / 225 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	19	19	65	5.79	4.46	15.7%	10.2%	—	K 11.3% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.43
2025	23	A+NYY	40	1	57	2.05	1.87	28.2%	6.0%	—	K 21.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 2.47
2026	24	MIX2 levels	31	0	43	2.93	4.45	21.0%	12.7%	—	K 17.4% · BB 16.5% · FIP 6.08
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.93	4.93	19.0%	11.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBNYY	19	0	20	4.84	4.82	19.9%	11.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	24	0	25	4.81	4.82	20.2%	11.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJarret Whorff (age 25) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Ryan Conroy (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	65	293	46	30	7	100%	3.4	11.3%	11.7%	-0.5%	3.3%	5.79	5.43	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	65	293	46	30	7	100%	3.4	11.3%	11.7%	-0.5%	3.3%	5.79	5.43	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	65	293	46	30	7	100%	3.4	15.7%	10.2%	5.5%	2.4%	5.79	4.46	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	1	57	216	61	13	1	2%	1.4	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	0.6%	2.05	2.47	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	1	57	216	61	13	1	2%	1.4	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	0.6%	2.05	2.47	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	1	57	216	61	13	1	2%	1.4	28.2%	6.0%	22.2%	0.5%	2.05	1.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	43	181	38	23	5	0%	1.4	17.4%	16.5%	0.9%	4.3%	2.93	6.08	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	43	181	38	23	5	0%	1.4	17.4%	16.5%	0.9%	4.3%	2.93	6.08	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	43	181	38	23	5	0%	1.4	21.0%	12.7%	8.3%	2.8%	2.93	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	11.3%	7.7%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	44	0	46	193	39	21	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.82	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	38	0	40	169	34	19	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.82	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.82	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	24	0	25	106	21	12	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	190	38	21	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	3.0%	4.82	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	93	27	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	3.0%	4.82	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		90	20	165	690	111	79	19	22%	1.8	16.2%	11.5%	4.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.67	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	24	200	835	135	96	22	22%	1.8	16.2%	11.5%	4.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.67	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 34 IPFIP 4.89 → 6.08 (+1.18)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.60%	—	×0.770	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.38%	—	×1.150	16.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.28%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 9 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.06 (+0.44)K% 14.3% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.740	10.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.180	6.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 57 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.47 (+0.74)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.24%	—	×0.770	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.150	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.46%	÷0.969	×1.250	0.60%

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 50 IPFIP 4.93 → 5.99 (+1.06)K% 13.8% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.84%	—	×0.740	10.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×1.180	14.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.979	×1.300	3.56%

Result: FIP 4.93 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Yankees · 13 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.25 (+0.87)K% 22.4% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.680	15.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.72%	—	×1.250	2.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.142	×1.400	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Warrecker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.0%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.82	20.0%	9.1%	86	-0.11	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	88
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	88
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	86
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	85
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	85
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	85
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	84
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	84
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	84
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	83
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.6%	11.1%	1.15	4.87
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*