Payton Tolle
P
Worcester Red Sox
+1.5
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 2.0 · 2029
ERA5.00
FIP4.29
xFIP3.98
SIERA4.01
K%25.9%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%17.5%
IP108
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2029
OFP—60
K†6060
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p8130.1%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
SL+1.2 (5%)
CU (6%)
CT-1.1 (20%)
CH-1.3 (7%)
FB-2.6 (64%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 21 | 108 | 438 | 152 | 31 | 15 | 28.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 3.50 | 3.71 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 3.00 | 2.65 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 118 | 39 | 16 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 123 | 517 | 137 | 43 | 17 | 26.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 140 | 44 | 18 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 140 | 592 | 155 | 47 | 20 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.14 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 147 | 622 | 163 | 49 | 21 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 150 | 634 | 165 | 51 | 21 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.14 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 150 | 633 | 165 | 51 | 22 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 146 | 619 | 158 | 50 | 21 | 25.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 150 | 49 | 21 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 137 | 579 | 141 | 48 | 21 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 132 | 47 | 20 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 123 | 46 | 20 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 113 | 45 | 19 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 103 | 43 | 19 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 93 | 41 | 18 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 5.03 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 24 | 123 | 499 | 141 | 38 | 17 | 28.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 3.44 | 3.58 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 39 | 200 | 811 | 229 | 62 | 28 | 28.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 3.44 | 3.58 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Payton Tolle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | — | 4.15 | 26.1% | 18.1% | 414 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 68 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 67 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 66 |
| Brandon Williamson L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .340 | 4.58 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 288 | +0.92 | 3.66 | 402 | 66 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2028 · 3.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.17 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.0% | .300 | 3.70 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.53 | 3.17 | 372 | 65 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.34 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.02 | 280 | 65 |
| Ben Shields L 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 64 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 64 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 64 |
| Joe Rock L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .335 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 236 | -0.39 | 3.83 | 434 | 63 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.32 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.80 | 2.44 | 604 | 63 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 62 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.36 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .206 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.08 | 4.35 | 193 | 62 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 62 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .349 | 4.13 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.40 | 3.93 | 264 | 62 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 62 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.15 | 3.49 | 432 | 61 |
| Matt Strahm L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .242 | 3.78 | 24.7% | 16.6% | 235 | -0.18 | 1.66 | 721 | 61 |
| Jake Miller L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.01 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 2.0% | .282 | 3.22 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 17 | +0.21 | 3.01 | 143 | 61 |
| Hayden Harris L 2027 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 1.9% | .315 | 2.78 | 32.4% | 20.5% | 95 | -0.34 | 1.85 | 146 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.7M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.6 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $6M | +1.8 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $11M | +2.0 | $17M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $17M | +2.0 | $18M | +$0.8M |
| Totals | $36M | $74M | +$37M | ||