Payton Tolle

P Boston Red Sox

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.9 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX4 levels	27	21	108	3.50	2.95	34.7%	7.1%	3.3	K 28.4% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.71
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	29	164	3.02	2.84	28.6%	6.5%	5.3	K 28.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 2.89
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	22	22	126	3.28	3.37	29.2%	6.4%	3.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBBOS	21	21	123	3.26	3.28	29.6%	6.2%	3.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBBOS	20	20	123	3.26	3.25	29.8%	6.2%	3.2

Last 2 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 9.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.170First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$7M2030Arb-2$12M2031Arb-3$17M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%84

FB Velo72

Form2.70 ERA (proj 3.28) · K 30.6% (proj 29.2%) · BB 5.1% (proj 6.4%) ▲ last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsShane McClanahan (age 24) · Reid Detmers (age 24) · Eduardo Rodriguez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7079vR 87

ERA3.28

FIP3.37

K%29.2%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%22.8%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$85M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p8428.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.255

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.170 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.2	$30M	+$29M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.2	$28M	+$27M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.2	$26M	+$20M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+3.0	$22M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+2.8	$18M	+$6M
Totals		$38M		$123M	+$95M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.4%	7.7%	20.7%	3.7%	3.50	3.71	+2.2
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.4%	7.7%	20.7%	3.7%	3.50	3.71	+2.2
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	34.7%	7.1%	27.6%	3.4%	3.50	2.95	+3.3
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	164	664	190	43	16	100%	5.6	28.2%	6.4%	21.8%	2.5%	3.02	2.89	+5.2
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	164	664	190	43	16	100%	5.6	28.2%	6.4%	21.8%	2.5%	3.02	2.89	+5.2
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	164	664	190	43	16	100%	5.6	28.6%	6.5%	22.1%	2.4%	3.02	2.84	+5.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	29	165	677	190	47	20	88%	5.0	28.1%	6.9%	21.1%	3.0%	3.33	3.23	+4.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	22	22	126	532	155	34	15	100%	5.7	29.2%	6.4%	22.8%	2.8%	3.28	3.37	+3.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	129	546	161	34	15	100%	5.9	29.6%	6.2%	23.3%	2.8%	3.30	3.32	+3.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	129	546	163	34	15	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.2%	23.6%	2.8%	3.30	3.29	+3.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	125	527	157	33	15	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.3%	23.5%	2.9%	3.32	3.33	+3.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	122	517	153	33	15	100%	6.1	29.7%	6.4%	23.2%	3.0%	3.38	3.42	+3.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	483	140	32	15	100%	6.0	29.1%	6.7%	22.4%	3.1%	3.50	3.58	+2.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	103	436	124	30	14	100%	6.1	28.4%	7.0%	21.4%	3.3%	3.67	3.78	+2.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	379	105	28	13	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	3.5%	3.88	4.02	+1.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	310	83	24	12	100%	6.1	26.8%	7.7%	19.1%	3.8%	4.11	4.27	+1.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	56	235	61	19	10	100%	6.2	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	4.1%	4.37	4.55	+0.5
2037	34	MLB MLE	BOS	6	6	38	161	40	14	7	100%	6.4	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	4.4%	4.66	4.86	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	123	519	154	32	14	100%	5.9	29.6%	6.2%	23.3%	2.7%	3.26	3.28	+3.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	123	519	155	32	14	100%	6.2	29.8%	6.2%	23.6%	2.7%	3.26	3.25	+3.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	118	498	148	31	14	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.3%	23.5%	2.8%	3.28	3.29	+3.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	116	490	145	32	14	100%	6.1	29.7%	6.4%	23.2%	2.9%	3.34	3.38	+2.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	109	460	134	31	14	100%	6.1	29.1%	6.7%	22.4%	3.0%	3.46	3.54	+2.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	98	414	117	29	13	100%	6.1	28.4%	7.0%	21.4%	3.2%	3.62	3.73	+1.9
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	85	359	99	26	12	100%	6.1	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	3.4%	3.83	3.97	+1.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	70	296	79	23	11	100%	5.8	26.8%	7.7%	19.1%	3.7%	4.06	4.22	+0.9
2036	33	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	58	18	9	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	4.0%	4.31	4.49	+0.5
2037	34	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	34	144	36	12	6	100%	5.7	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	4.3%	4.60	4.80	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	184	1094	4601	1317	314	142	98%	5.8	28.6%	6.8%	21.8%	3.1%	3.52	3.24	+29.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	841	241	57	26	98%	5.8	28.6%	6.8%	21.8%	3.1%	3.52	3.24	+5.3
Career	—	MLE		56	50	272	1102	312	76	33	89%	4.9	28.3%	6.9%	21.4%	3.0%	3.21	3.22	+24.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	811	230	56	24	89%	4.9	28.3%	6.9%	21.4%	3.0%	3.21	3.22	+4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 15 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.58 (+0.38)K% 31.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.860	26.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.56%	—	×0.900	5.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 50 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.39 (+1.06)K% 38.3% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.35%	—	×0.770	29.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.150	7.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.117	×1.250	3.26%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 27 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.72 (+0.77)K% 37.4% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.37%	—	×0.810	30.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×1.100	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.119	×1.200	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 15 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.47 (+0.52)K% 28.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.860	24.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.39%	—	×0.900	3.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.984	×1.100	3.79%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Tolle (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.31	29.7%	23.5%	383	-0.06	—	—	—
Shane McClanahan L 2021 · 3.23 FIP	24	SP	3.23	27.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.326	3.31	28.5%	21.5%	281	+0.08	2.95	643	76
Reid Detmers L 2023 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	26.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.306	3.68	28.0%	20.5%	414	+0.05	2.77	766	73
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.4%	3.4%	.294	3.60	25.4%	17.1%	333	-0.23	3.25	1,596	71
Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 2.75 FIP	23	SP	2.75	27.9%	9.2%	1.5%	.267	4.31	23.1%	9.7%	242	+1.56	2.75	386	70
Robbie Ray L 2016 · 3.50 FIP	24	SP	3.50	28.1%	8.6%	3.1%	.345	3.92	31.9%	20.9%	460	+0.42	3.17	1,645	69
Ken Waldichuk L 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	27.7%	8.9%	2.9%	.292	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	192	+1.70	3.51	432	69
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.48	22.6%	16.0%	208	+0.10	2.38	494	69
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	67
Brendan McKay L 2019 · 2.90 FIP	23	SP	2.90	28.6%	7.2%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	213	65
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	65
Jesús Luzardo L 2022 · 3.12 FIP	24	SP	3.12	30.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.251	3.23	27.2%	19.7%	429	+0.11	2.42	1,058	65
Ryan Hartman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	24	SP-	3.24	24.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.312	5.39	19.3%	11.7%	215	+2.15	3.24	456	64
Andrew Abbott L 2023 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	29.2%	8.9%	3.5%	.291	4.28	19.8%	11.3%	470	+0.61	3.36	752	64
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.28	18.8%	9.8%	354	+0.12	4.03	620	64
Blake Snell L 2017 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	23.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.295	3.19	32.0%	23.2%	338	-0.74	1.59	1,456	63
Dylan Dodd L 2022 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	20.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.323	4.83	17.9%	11.8%	277	+1.52	3.31	475	63
Nick Lodolo L 2022 · 3.21 FIP	24	SP	3.21	29.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.298	3.47	24.9%	19.1%	306	+0.26	1.54	562	62
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	62
Eric Lauer L 2019 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	21.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.309	4.17	23.7%	14.8%	288	+0.30	3.74	1,097	61
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	106	28.7%	6.8%	1.21	3.53
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Bruce Sutter ('76-'88, 22 WAR*)	5.2	95	28.5%*	7.3%*	1.12*	3.14*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Willie Hernandez ('77-'89, 16 WAR*)	5.2	87	25.3%*	8.0%*	1.16*	3.58*
Rick Aguilera ('85-'00, 22 WAR*)	6.5	81	24.3%*	6.1%*	1.18*	3.65*