Payton Tolle — OGILVIE

Payton Tolle P Boston Red Sox

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 4.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION152 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7179vR 87

ERA3.46

FIP3.41

K%28.5%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%21.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p8628.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.255

SL+1.2 (5%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.1 (20%)

CH-1.3 (7%)

FB-2.6 (64%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$21M	+$20M
2028	Arb-1	$9M	+2.9	$22M	+$15M
2029	Arb-2	$16M	+2.9	$20M	+$9M
2030	Arb-3	$23M	+2.8	$18M	+$2M
Totals		$49M		$82M	+$47M

Options · projected decision
2031	CLUB OPT	$26.9M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	3.7%	3.50	3.72	+1.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	3.7%	3.50	3.72	+1.5
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	34.7%	7.1%	27.6%	3.4%	3.50	2.95	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	27	153	625	178	44	20	87%	4.9	28.5%	7.0%	21.4%	3.2%	3.46	3.33	+2.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	152	612	178	40	16	100%	5.6	28.6%	6.5%	22.1%	2.7%	3.14	2.99	+3.7
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	152	612	178	40	16	100%	5.6	28.6%	6.5%	22.1%	2.7%	3.14	2.99	+3.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	BOS	3	3	15	61	19	4	1	100%	5.0	31.1%	6.6%	24.6%	1.6%	3.00	2.20	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	BOS	24	24	137	551	159	36	15	100%	5.7	28.9%	6.5%	22.3%	2.7%	3.15	2.99	+3.3
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	BOS	24	24	137	551	159	36	15	100%	5.7	28.9%	6.5%	22.3%	2.7%	3.15	2.99	+3.3
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BOS	2	2	13	53	15	4	2	100%	6.3	28.5%	6.9%	21.6%	3.3%	3.46	3.41	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	13	55	16	4	2	100%	6.5	28.5%	6.9%	21.6%	3.3%	3.41	3.36	+0.2
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	165	665	193	44	18	—	—	29.0%	6.6%	22.5%	2.7%	3.16	3.02	+3.9
FULL	23	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	150	631	193	44	18	—	—	30.6%	6.9%	23.7%	2.8%	3.48	2.93	+3.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	31	31	175	739	216	50	23	100%	5.6	29.3%	6.8%	22.5%	3.1%	3.61	3.56	+2.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	177	748	222	50	23	100%	5.9	29.6%	6.7%	23.0%	3.1%	3.54	3.50	+3.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	177	748	223	49	23	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.6%	23.2%	3.1%	3.50	3.48	+3.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	174	737	220	49	23	100%	6.0	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	3.1%	3.51	3.52	+2.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	174	737	219	50	24	100%	6.0	29.7%	6.8%	22.9%	3.2%	3.57	3.60	+2.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	28	28	167	703	205	50	24	100%	6.0	29.1%	7.1%	22.1%	3.4%	3.69	3.76	+2.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	26	26	157	661	188	49	24	100%	6.0	28.4%	7.4%	21.1%	3.6%	3.86	3.97	+1.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	146	616	171	48	23	100%	6.1	27.7%	7.7%	20.0%	3.8%	4.06	4.20	+1.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	135	570	153	46	23	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	4.0%	4.30	4.46	+0.7
2036	33	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	124	524	136	45	23	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.6%	17.5%	4.3%	4.56	4.74	+0.2
2037	34	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	113	476	120	43	22	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.1%	4.6%	4.85	5.04	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	30	30	166	701	205	48	21	100%	5.5	29.3%	6.8%	22.5%	3.0%	3.57	3.52	+2.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	29	29	168	709	210	47	21	100%	5.8	29.6%	6.7%	23.0%	3.0%	3.50	3.46	+2.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	168	709	212	47	21	100%	6.0	29.8%	6.6%	23.2%	3.0%	3.46	3.44	+2.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	166	701	209	47	21	100%	5.9	29.8%	6.7%	23.1%	3.0%	3.47	3.48	+2.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	28	28	166	701	208	48	22	100%	5.9	29.7%	6.8%	22.9%	3.1%	3.53	3.56	+2.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	158	667	194	47	22	100%	6.1	29.1%	7.1%	22.1%	3.3%	3.64	3.71	+2.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	25	25	149	629	179	46	22	100%	6.0	28.4%	7.4%	21.1%	3.5%	3.81	3.92	+1.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	139	587	162	45	22	100%	6.0	27.7%	7.7%	20.0%	3.7%	4.01	4.15	+1.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	128	540	145	44	21	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	3.9%	4.24	4.40	+0.7
2036	33	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	118	498	130	43	21	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.6%	17.5%	4.2%	4.50	4.68	+0.2
2037	34	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	102	431	108	39	19	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.1%	16.1%	4.5%	4.79	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		307	303	1794	7554	2157	549	256	99%	5.8	28.6%	7.3%	21.3%	3.4%	3.77	3.47	+31.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	842	240	61	29	99%	5.8	28.6%	7.3%	21.3%	3.4%	3.77	3.47	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		54	48	260	1050	299	73	33	89%	4.8	28.4%	7.0%	21.5%	3.1%	3.29	3.29	+23.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	808	230	56	25	89%	4.8	28.4%	7.0%	21.5%	3.1%	3.29	3.29	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Tolle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	28.4%	7.7%	3.5%	—	3.51	29.6%	22.9%	529	-0.49	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	72
Noah Cameron L 2022 · 2.96 FIP	23	SP	2.96	28.6%	7.7%	2.4%	.336	4.25	21.9%	14.2%	407	+1.29	2.96	627	66
Joe Palumbo L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	22.8%	6.0%	2.3%	.292	4.40	27.3%	16.0%	97	+1.18	1.40	234	66
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	66
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.2%	288	+0.97	3.62	439	65
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	65
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	65
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	65
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	64
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	63
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	62
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	62
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	61
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.28	19.7%	10.4%	353	+1.17	3.11	411	61
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.11	455	61
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	61
Sean Manaea L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	23.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.345	4.05	19.4%	13.2%	482	+0.77	3.28	1,494	60
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	60
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	59
Kyle Young L 2019 · 3.06 FIP	21	SP	3.06	22.9%	1.4%	3.1%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	100	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.1	151	28.5%	7.3%	1.35	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45