Payton Tolle — OGILVIE

Payton Tolle P Boston Red Sox

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7180vR 90

ERA3.47

FIP3.40

K%27.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%19.5%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD4555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p5626.2%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.271

SL+1.2 (5%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.1 (20%)

CH-1.3 (7%)

FB-2.6 (64%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$7M	+1.1	$8M	+$2M
2029	Arb-2	$12M	+1.1	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$19M	+1.0	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$41M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	28.5%	7.7%	20.7%	3.5%	3.50	3.58	+2.3
2025	22	MIX	4 levels	27	21	108	438	152	31	15	78%	4.0	34.7%	7.1%	27.6%	3.4%	3.50	2.95	+3.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	18	18	99	402	106	29	9	100%	5.5	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	2.3%	3.09	3.08	+2.7
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	10	10	56	236	64	18	7	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	3.0%	3.47	3.40	+0.8
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	10	10	56	236	64	18	7	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	3.0%	3.48	3.41	+0.7
2026 TOT	23	MLB	BOS	—	—	155	638	170	47	16	—	—	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.5%	3.23	3.20	+4.0
2026 FULL	23	MLB	BOS	—	—	140	591	170	47	16	—	—	28.7%	7.9%	20.8%	2.7%	3.58	3.17	+3.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BOS	22	22	121	512	142	38	15	100%	5.5	27.8%	7.3%	20.4%	3.0%	3.76	3.70	+2.4
2028	25	MLB	BOS	24	24	141	594	168	43	18	100%	5.9	28.2%	7.2%	21.0%	3.0%	3.69	3.64	+2.9
2029	26	MLB	BOS	25	25	153	645	183	46	19	100%	6.1	28.4%	7.2%	21.2%	3.0%	3.65	3.62	+3.2
2030	27	MLB	BOS	26	26	154	652	185	47	20	100%	5.9	28.4%	7.2%	21.1%	3.0%	3.65	3.66	+3.1
2031	28	MLB	BOS	26	26	154	652	184	48	20	100%	5.9	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	3.1%	3.70	3.74	+3.0
2032	29	MLB	BOS	25	25	148	623	172	47	20	100%	5.9	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	3.3%	3.82	3.90	+2.6
2033	30	MLB	BOS	23	23	139	586	158	46	20	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	3.5%	3.99	4.11	+2.1
2034	31	MLB	BOS	22	22	129	546	143	45	20	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.3%	17.9%	3.7%	4.20	4.34	+1.6
2035	32	MLB	BOS	20	20	120	505	128	44	20	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	3.9%	4.44	4.59	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	BOS	18	18	110	463	114	42	20	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.1%	15.4%	4.2%	4.70	4.87	+0.7
2027	24	MLB	BOS	21	21	115	486	135	36	15	100%	5.5	27.8%	7.3%	20.4%	3.0%	3.77	3.71	+2.3
2028	25	MLB	BOS	23	23	134	566	159	41	17	100%	5.8	28.2%	7.2%	21.0%	3.0%	3.70	3.65	+2.7
2029	26	MLB	BOS	24	24	145	612	174	44	18	100%	6.0	28.4%	7.2%	21.2%	3.0%	3.66	3.63	+3.0
2030	27	MLB	BOS	24	24	147	621	176	45	19	100%	6.1	28.4%	7.2%	21.1%	3.0%	3.66	3.67	+3.0
2031	28	MLB	BOS	24	24	147	621	175	46	19	100%	6.1	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	3.1%	3.71	3.75	+2.8
2032	29	MLB	BOS	23	23	140	591	164	45	19	100%	6.1	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	3.3%	3.83	3.91	+2.4
2033	30	MLB	BOS	22	22	132	557	150	44	19	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	3.5%	4.00	4.12	+2.0
2034	31	MLB	BOS	20	20	123	519	136	43	19	100%	6.2	26.2%	8.3%	17.9%	3.7%	4.21	4.35	+1.5
2035	32	MLB	BOS	19	19	114	481	122	42	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	4.0%	4.45	4.60	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	BOS	17	17	104	439	108	40	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.1%	15.4%	4.2%	4.71	4.88	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			251	247	1457	6141	1669	476	203	98%	5.8	27.2%	7.7%	19.4%	3.3%	3.89	3.60	+30.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	843	229	65	28	98%	5.8	27.2%	7.7%	19.4%	3.3%	3.89	3.60	+4.2
Career	—			45	39	207	840	228	63	24	87%	4.6	27.2%	7.5%	19.7%	2.9%	3.30	3.34	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—			43	38	200	812	221	61	24	87%	4.6	27.2%	7.5%	19.7%	2.9%	3.30	3.34	+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Tolle (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	29.2%	7.8%	3.5%	—	3.65	28.1%	20.9%	415	-0.25	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	4.07	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.18	2.89	248	77
Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	71
Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	23.4%	10.0%	2.0%	.275	3.79	22.7%	10.5%	150	+0.28	3.51	212	70
Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.2%	7.2%	2.4%	.339	3.10	19.0%	12.8%	156	-0.44	2.79	219	70
Jake Eder L 2025 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	5.07	20.8%	7.4%	156	+2.34	2.73	335	69
Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP-	3.53	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.261	6.22	16.8%	6.5%	354	+2.69	3.53	522	68
Joe Palumbo L 2026 · 2.94 FIP	23	SP	2.94	22.8%	6.0%	1.8%	.292	4.31	27.3%	16.0%	97	+1.37	1.40	234	68
Brent Killam L 2026 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	29.1%	14.5%	3.4%	.284	7.12	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.77	4.35	121	68
T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP	4.71	21.9%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	4.64	16.9%	7.4%	231	-0.07	3.39	300	68
Noah Cameron L 2026 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	28.6%	7.7%	2.2%	.336	4.35	22.3%	14.3%	407	+1.49	2.86	563	67
Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	18.6%	8.1%	2.7%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.37	3.88	491	67
Tyler Skaggs L 2028 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.81	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.60	3.21	372	67
Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	67
Jackson Kent L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP	3.80	23.2%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	197	66
Gage Jump L 2026 · 3.32 FIP	23	SP	3.32	26.1%	9.4%	2.2%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	199	66
Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	66
Austin Emener L 2025 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.42	23.7%	8.9%	49	+0.56	4.86	109	66
Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	20.5%	10.6%	1.9%	.235	3.64	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.09	3.14	473	66
Zach Thornton L 2026 · 2.95 FIP	23	SP	2.95	22.7%	4.5%	2.2%	.239	4.22	20.9%	10.8%	80	+1.27	2.95	221	66
Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP-	3.61	21.6%	8.2%	2.4%	.303	3.72	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.11	3.21	439	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	133	27.4%	7.7%	1.29	3.93
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73