Robbie Ray — OGILVIE

Robbie Ray P San Diego Padres

Age 34 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION156 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.29

FIP4.52

K%21.2%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

FB+3.5 (46%)

SL (23%)

SI (14%)

CU (12%)

CH (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.041 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.2M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	169	732	176	72	10	100%	5.3	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	1.4%	3.56	3.17	+3.6
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	32	169	732	176	72	10	100%	5.3	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	1.4%	3.56	3.06	+3.9
2016	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	174	776	218	67	24	100%	5.4	28.1%	8.6%	19.5%	3.1%	4.90	3.50	+3.0
2016	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	174	776	218	67	24	100%	5.4	28.1%	8.6%	19.5%	3.1%	4.90	3.54	+2.9
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	167	686	229	70	23	100%	5.7	32.8%	10.2%	22.6%	3.4%	2.92	3.51	+2.8
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	167	686	229	70	23	100%	5.7	33.4%	10.2%	23.2%	3.4%	2.92	3.41	+3.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	130	557	177	68	21	100%	5.0	31.4%	12.7%	18.6%	3.8%	3.94	4.16	+1.1
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	130	557	177	68	21	100%	5.0	31.8%	12.2%	19.6%	3.8%	3.94	4.04	+1.3
2019	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	174	747	235	79	30	100%	5.3	31.5%	10.6%	20.9%	4.2%	4.34	4.12	+1.6
2019	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	174	747	235	79	30	100%	5.3	31.5%	10.6%	20.9%	4.0%	4.34	4.00	+1.9
2020	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	12	11	52	251	68	44	13	92%	4.3	27.1%	17.5%	9.6%	5.2%	6.62	5.88	-0.6
2020	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	12	11	52	251	68	44	13	92%	4.3	27.1%	17.5%	9.6%	5.2%	6.62	6.29	-0.8
2021	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	773	248	52	33	100%	6.0	32.1%	6.7%	25.4%	4.3%	2.84	3.59	+3.1
2021	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	773	248	52	33	100%	6.0	32.1%	6.7%	25.4%	4.3%	2.84	3.56	+3.2
2022	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	189	775	212	62	32	100%	5.9	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	4.2%	3.71	4.13	+1.7
2022	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	189	775	212	62	32	100%	5.9	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	4.1%	3.71	4.04	+1.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	1	1	3	19	3	5	0	100%	3.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	0.0%	8.10	5.10	-0.0
2023	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	1	1	3	19	3	5	0	100%	3.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	0.0%	8.10	5.10	-0.0
2023	31	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	1	1	3	19	3	5	0	100%	3.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	0.0%	8.10	5.80	-0.0
2024	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	16	60	240	88	21	10	94%	3.5	33.3%	11.6%	21.7%	5.0%	4.05	4.52	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	16	60	240	88	21	10	94%	3.5	33.3%	11.6%	21.7%	5.0%	4.05	4.52	+0.3
2024	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	16	60	240	88	21	10	94%	3.5	36.7%	8.8%	27.9%	4.2%	4.05	3.38	+1.1
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	32	32	182	755	186	73	22	100%	5.7	24.6%	9.7%	15.0%	3.2%	3.65	3.97	+2.0
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	32	32	182	755	186	73	22	100%	5.7	24.6%	9.7%	15.0%	3.2%	3.65	3.97	+2.0
2025	33	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	32	32	182	755	186	73	22	100%	5.7	24.6%	9.7%	15.0%	2.9%	3.65	3.83	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			285	283	1569	6622	1847	659	232	99%	5.5	27.9%	10.0%	17.9%	3.5%	3.83	3.93	+18.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	28	156	661	132	81	21	97%	5.4	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.1%	3.57	4.67	+0.4
YTD	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	28	156	661	132	81	21	97%	5.4	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.1%	3.57	4.67	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	MLB RAW	SD	29	28	156	661	132	81	21	97%	5.4	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	3.57	4.71	+0.3
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	SD	29	28	156	661	132	81	21	97%	5.4	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	3.57	4.71	+0.3
ROS	34	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	15	62	13	7	2	100%	7.3	21.2%	11.4%	9.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.52	+0.1
ROS	34	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	15	63	13	7	2	100%	7.5	21.2%	11.4%	9.8%	3.3%	4.33	4.56	+0.1
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	171	723	145	88	23	—	—	20.1%	12.2%	7.9%	3.2%	3.63	4.65	+0.5
FULL	34	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	171	722	145	88	23	—	—	20.1%	12.2%	7.9%	3.2%	3.63	4.70	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	127	535	110	64	19	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	3.5%	4.97	5.20	-0.4
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	112	473	93	59	19	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.6%	7.0%	3.9%	5.33	5.57	-0.8
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	21	21	127	536	111	64	19	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.25	-0.4
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	112	473	93	59	19	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.6%	7.0%	4.0%	5.38	5.62	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		327	325	1822	7691	2063	789	272	99%	5.6	26.8%	10.3%	16.6%	3.5%	4.01	4.08	+17.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	226	87	30	99%	5.6	26.8%	10.3%	16.6%	3.5%	4.01	4.08	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		307	304	1651	6972	1951	705	245	99%	5.4	28.0%	10.1%	17.9%	3.5%	3.82	3.95	+16.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	845	236	85	30	99%	5.4	28.0%	10.1%	17.9%	3.5%	3.82	3.95	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robbie Ray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	25.1%	9.8%	3.2%	—	5.37	20.1%	7.9%	239	+0.99	—	—	—
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	68
Clayton Richard L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	34	SP	4.35	15.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.282	5.77	10.9%	1.9%	45	+1.42	3.56	574	63
J.A. Happ L 2017 · 3.67 FIP	34	SP	3.67	22.7%	7.2%	2.9%	.302	4.23	23.3%	16.2%	388	+0.56	3.37	1,053	63
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	62
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	61
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	60
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	60
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	60
Francisco Liriano L 2018 · 4.95 FIP	34	SP	4.95	18.8%	12.5%	3.4%	.281	4.34	20.9%	9.6%	70	-0.61	3.14	650	59
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	58
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	56
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	55
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	55
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	55
Jon Lester L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	34	SP	4.29	19.6%	8.3%	3.3%	.286	4.66	18.0%	10.8%	374	+0.37	2.81	1,144	53
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	34	SP	3.93	20.4%	5.3%	3.4%	.294	4.70	16.0%	10.8%	79	+0.77	2.79	725	53
Jason Vargas L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	34	SP	4.66	17.7%	7.4%	3.9%	.286	4.47	19.7%	11.2%	242	-0.19	4.02	478	50
Cole Hamels L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	34	SP	4.20	23.3%	8.1%	3.7%	.281	3.84	23.2%	14.3%	142	-0.36	3.21	893	49
Jorge Castillo L 2016 · 4.94 FIP	34	SP	4.94	13.0%	4.6%	4.3%	.246	4.93	16.8%	9.2%	179	-0.01	4.50	408	49
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	127	22.0%	11.3%	1.37	4.77
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19