Robbie Ray
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 34
LHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.22
FIP4.46
K%21.8%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 178 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
FB+3.5 (47%)
SL (26%)
SI (11%)
CU (10%)
CH (17%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 169 | 732 | 176 | 72 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 1.3% | 3.56 | 3.14 | +4.5 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 32 | 169 | 732 | 176 | 72 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 1.4% | 3.56 | 3.06 | +4.6 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 32 | 174 | 776 | 218 | 67 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 28.1% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 3.45 | +4.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 32 | 174 | 776 | 218 | 67 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 28.1% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 3.54 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 167 | 686 | 229 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 32.8% | 10.2% | 22.6% | 3.3% | 2.92 | 3.44 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 167 | 686 | 229 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 33.4% | 10.2% | 23.2% | 3.4% | 2.92 | 3.41 | +3.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 130 | 557 | 177 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 5.0 | 31.4% | 12.7% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 3.96 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 130 | 557 | 177 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 5.0 | 31.8% | 12.2% | 19.6% | 3.8% | 3.94 | 4.04 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 174 | 747 | 235 | 79 | 30 | 100% | 5.3 | 31.5% | 10.6% | 20.9% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 3.89 | +3.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 174 | 747 | 235 | 79 | 30 | 100% | 5.3 | 31.5% | 10.6% | 20.9% | 4.0% | 4.34 | 4.00 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 12 | 11 | 52 | 251 | 68 | 44 | 13 | 92% | 4.3 | 27.1% | 17.5% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 6.62 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 12 | 11 | 52 | 251 | 68 | 44 | 13 | 92% | 4.3 | 27.1% | 17.5% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 6.62 | 6.29 | -1.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 193 | 773 | 248 | 52 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.1% | 6.7% | 25.4% | 4.3% | 2.84 | 3.59 | +4.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 193 | 773 | 248 | 52 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.1% | 6.7% | 25.4% | 4.3% | 2.84 | 3.56 | +4.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 189 | 775 | 212 | 62 | 32 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.4% | 8.0% | 19.4% | 4.3% | 3.71 | 4.19 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 189 | 775 | 212 | 62 | 32 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.4% | 8.0% | 19.4% | 4.1% | 3.71 | 4.04 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 26.3% | -10.5% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 26.3% | -10.5% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 5.80 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 16 | 60 | 240 | 88 | 21 | 10 | 94% | 3.5 | 33.3% | 11.6% | 21.7% | 5.1% | 4.05 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 16 | 60 | 240 | 88 | 21 | 10 | 94% | 3.5 | 36.7% | 8.8% | 27.9% | 4.2% | 4.05 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 32 | 182 | 755 | 186 | 73 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.98 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 32 | 182 | 755 | 186 | 73 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 3.65 | 3.83 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 19 | 18 | 107 | 443 | 90 | 52 | 15 | 95% | 5.6 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 3.38 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 65 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 65 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | SF | — | — | 178 | 743 | 155 | 85 | 25 | — | — | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 3.71 | 4.62 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | SF | — | — | 178 | 751 | 155 | 85 | 25 | — | — | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 4.58 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 127 | 535 | 114 | 61 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 96 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 5.27 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 98 | 413 | 79 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.65 | 5.91 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 114 | 61 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 96 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.18 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 79 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.55 | 5.81 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 343 | 341 | 1926 | 8124 | 2159 | 833 | 290 | 99% | 5.6 | 26.6% | 10.3% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +29.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 224 | 86 | 30 | 99% | 5.6 | 26.6% | 10.3% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 297 | 294 | 1601 | 6754 | 1909 | 676 | 234 | 99% | 5.4 | 28.3% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 3.5% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +28.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 238 | 84 | 29 | 99% | 5.4 | 28.3% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 3.5% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robbie Ray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | — | 5.48 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 336 | +1.09 | — | — | — |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.20 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 405 | 68 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.18 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 374 | +0.34 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 66 |
| CC Sabathia L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 62 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 62 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.67 | 22.7% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.22 | 23.3% | 16.2% | 388 | +0.55 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 61 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 61 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 60 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.08 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .281 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 142 | -0.33 | 3.22 | 893 | 59 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.04 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.80 | 3.07 | 650 | 59 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 59 |
| Barry Zito L 2029 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 59 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.50 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .282 | 5.77 | 10.9% | 1.9% | 45 | +1.27 | 3.58 | 574 | 57 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 55 |
| Eric Stults L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 55 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 55 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 54 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.93 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | .294 | 4.70 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.77 | 2.87 | 725 | 50 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.70 | 13.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | .246 | 5.03 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 179 | +0.33 | 4.40 | 408 | 50 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 48 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 3.8% | .286 | 4.51 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 242 | -0.13 | 3.87 | 478 | 48 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 119 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 1.46 | 4.92 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |