Robbie Ray — OGILVIE

Robbie Ray P San Francisco Giants

+1.4 WAR

Age 34 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.4 · 2026

ERA4.09

FIP4.29

xFIP4.12

SIERA3.87

K%25.1%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.4%

IP148

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7328.9%

p7727.2%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

FB+3.5 (49%)

SL (30%)

CU (7%)

CH (15%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	169	732	176	72	10	23.1%	10.0%	1.5%	3.56	3.23	+4.0
2016	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	174	776	218	67	24	28.1%	8.6%	2.8%	4.90	3.38	+3.8
2017	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	29	29	167	686	229	70	23	32.8%	10.2%	3.3%	2.92	3.44	+3.5
2018	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	26	130	557	177	68	21	31.4%	12.7%	3.8%	3.94	4.14	+1.7
2019	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	174	747	235	79	30	31.5%	10.6%	4.2%	4.34	4.07	+2.4
2020	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	12	11	52	251	68	44	13	27.1%	17.5%	5.1%	6.62	5.84	-0.5
2021	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	773	248	52	33	32.1%	6.7%	4.2%	2.84	3.56	+3.8
2022	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	189	775	212	62	32	27.4%	8.0%	4.1%	3.71	4.05	+2.7
2023	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	1	1	3	19	3	5	0	—	—	—	8.10	—	—
2024	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	17	16	60	240	88	21	10	33.3%	11.6%	5.2%	4.05	4.61	+0.2
2025	33	MLB	San Francisco Giants	32	32	182	755	186	73	22	24.6%	9.7%	2.9%	3.65	3.85	+3.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	34	MLB	San Francisco Giants	4	4	22	88	24	10	4	27.3%	11.4%	4.5%	2.42	4.73	+0.1
ROS	34	MLB	ARI	19	19	105	445	114	45	15	25.6%	10.1%	3.3%	3.78	4.05	+1.5
2026 Total	34	MLB	ARI	—	—	128	533	138	55	19	25.9%	10.3%	3.5%	3.54	4.17	+1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	35	MLB	ARI	19	19	104	437	108	45	15	24.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.40	4.57	+0.9
2028	36	MLB	ARI	15	15	83	351	84	37	12	24.0%	10.5%	3.5%	4.60	4.73	+0.4
2029	37	MLB	ARI	12	12	66	280	71	28	10	25.2%	10.0%	3.7%	4.62	4.64	+0.3
2030	38	MLB	ARI	52	—	52	222	54	23	8	24.4%	10.3%	3.8%	4.74	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			282	280	1517	6399	1843	634	224	28.8%	9.9%	3.5%	3.82	3.84	+25.1
/ 200 IP	—			37	37	200	844	243	84	30	28.8%	9.9%	3.5%	3.82	3.84	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robbie Ray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	24.8%	9.8%	3.1%	—	4.64	24.7%	14.3%	253	+0.32	—	—	—
Jonathan Sánchez L 2028 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP-	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.8%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	62
Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP-	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	59
Everett Teaford L 2023 · 4.43 FIP	31	SP-	4.43	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	103	59
Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP-	3.71	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.55	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.84	3.71	237	59
Mauricio Lara L 2028 · 3.59 FIP	36	SP-	3.59	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.68	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.09	3.59	444	59
Juan Antonio Pena L 2029 · 4.17 FIP	37	SP-	4.17	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	149	59
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2026 · 3.59 FIP	34	SP-	3.59	16.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	119	57
Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP-	4.07	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	426	57
Greg Smith L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	31	SP-	3.37	11.8%	5.3%	1.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	120	56
Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP-	4.83	13.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.246	4.89	16.8%	9.2%	179	+0.06	4.49	408	56
Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	34	SP-	4.33	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.45	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.33	445	55
Wandy Rodriguez L 2028 · 3.85 FIP	36	SP-	3.85	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	101	55
Cesár Ramos L 2025 · 4.24 FIP	33	SP-	4.24	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	225	54
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2025 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP-	4.23	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	146	51
Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.62 FIP	34	SP-	4.62	16.2%	8.5%	3.3%	.253	4.63	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.01	4.62	249	49
Horacio Ramirez L 2028 · 3.35 FIP	36	SP-	3.35	9.6%	3.7%	1.1%	.333	4.27	7.6%	2.5%	97	+0.92	3.35	199	48
Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 3.99 FIP	34	SP	3.99	21.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.284	4.42	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.43	3.99	405	47
Barry Zito L 2029 · 4.55 FIP	37	SP	4.55	13.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	138	46
Andrew Albers L 2027 · 4.62 FIP	35	SP-	4.62	16.9%	3.7%	4.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	508	45
C.J. Wilson L 2026 · 3.65 FIP	34	SP	3.65	19.9%	8.0%	2.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	132	45

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.041 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$23M	+1.4	$11M	-$12M
Totals		$23M		$11M	-$12M